DEFENCE
Big defence spending decisions on the horizon for new government The Roche Review will be reporting back mid 2024 and its recommendations will take time to implement. That gives New Zealand’s new government a year or two to get its ducks in a row, writes Wayne Mapp.
Hon Dr Wayne Mapp QSO was New Zealand’s Minister of Defence and Minister of Science and Innovation from 2008 to 2011.
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With the election now over, the question arises as to the orientation of the new government’s foreign and defence policy. Will anything change from the last six years? Throughout the election campaign, the new Prime Minister, Christopher Luxon, made a virtue of New Zealand having a bipartisan defence and foreign policy. These statements were largely made in respect of the fundamentals, being a commitment to New Zealand’s Five Eyes partners, especially Australia, to the nuclear free status of New Zealand and to the independent foreign policy. The latter point was made with specific reference to having a balanced relationship with China, something that is strongly held by both National and Labour. Mr Luxon also placed particular emphasis on trade policy, promising to ramp up the action for new trade agreements, most particularly with India. Defence policy only merited a passing mention. Mr Luxon committed to expenditure of 2% of GDP over the longer term, but this was not seen as an immediate priority. Over the next three years defence expenditure is likely to remain the same, or even decline, given that major new capital expenditure is unlikely to occur prior to the next election.
National’s partners in government are a little more forthright in their expectations for defence. Both Act and New Zealand First want defence expenditure to increase to 2% of GDP, but with greater urgency than National. However, given that National is 80% of the new government and that economic issues have the highest priority, it seems likely that this will be an issue for 2025 and beyond. Two immediate international crises have enabled a reaffirmation of New Zealand’s foreign policy positioning. The Ukrainian war meant that New Zealand continues to be firmly identified as part of the West. Only western nations have come to Ukraine’s aid. New Zealand has played a useful role in providing nearly 200 military trainers deployed to the UK. In addition, there has been several million dollars provided in logistical support. More recently the Gaza crisis meant New Zealand was firmly on the side of Israel, although also providing humanitarian aid for the civilian population of Gaza. In both cases New Zealand’s positioning was essentially the same as the rest of the western world. Both the major political parties, Labour and National, were essentially of one voice when it Line of Defence
