2017 Commercial Real Estate Forecast

2017 COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE FORECAST EDITION 11

BRANSON FERRIS WHEEL

INTRODUCTION

GET READY FOR T H E E X PA N S I O N P H A S E

Vacancy rates, rents and sales prices have firmed up throughout the year. In order for all segments of the commercial market to generate new construction, vacancy rates will need

On the heels of record visitor growth, many categories of the

to improve slightly, but most important, rental rates must

commercial real estate market are expected to enter the

show some larger increases this year.

expansion phase of the growth cycle in late 2017. City tourism tax receipts increased 9.1% with every business

The lodging market continues its improving metrics and in

classification seeing annual increases. Visitation grew more

our opinion time is near for a new, well positioned property.

over the last four years than any four-year period from the

Tourism tax receipts for Motels & Hotels increased 5.3% over

boom years in the 1990’s. Record attendance that blew by

2015. The STAR numbers that represent predominately

the 9 million visitor mark was recorded for the first time ever.

flagged properties continue to report increased Average

Going into 2016 the projected visitor Increases was just two

Daily Rates, Occupancy Rates and increased Revenue Per

percent, when the actual numbers were a 7.1% increase for

Room. It’s fair to say that the trend is certainly going in the

the year. Year 2016 recorded the second largest Year over Year

right direction in the lodging sector.

increase since records began to be kept in 1994.

Commercial One Brokers finished the year with a record year Of course, this increased activity is reflected in both the

of closed transactions and completed leases. We continue to

commercial and to a somewhat lesser amount in the residen-

maintain the area’s only active database of multi-tenant

tial markets. New construction was limited in retail, and

commercial properties of 5000 sq. ft. or more and a full

nonexistent in the office, lodging and industrial segments

service management company. We look forward to continue

while new construction primarily occurred only in family

to be able to play a part in Branson’s exciting future.

attractions.

Leasing and sales activity has been steady with probably the most notable increase occurring in sales of existing commercial properties and land. The majority of this activity was located on the Hwy. 76 corridor. Much of the sales increase was due to not only improving market conditions, but also the redevelopment of the Hwy 76 Strip by the city of Branson.

Stephen N. Critchfield, CCIM

We anticipate all segments of the commercial market to continue in the recovery phase during the first three quarters of 2017. Depending on the national market conditions we expect the expansion will begin in the fourth quarter of 2017.

Several new projects are in the preliminary planning stages and we anticipate them to become more known before the end of the 2017.

Robert R. Huels, CCIM

As for the smaller tenants, there is no doubt that increased

RETAIL

consumer confidence and optimism has been evident since the elections. Because of the strong local occupancy rates,

Asking rents have remained flat when compared to the prior

new merchants are going to begin to find it difficult to find a

year, while the vacancy rate increased by one percent year

location that will meet their needs.

over year. The increase in the vacancy rate was due to two primary large projects working through some remixing of

Several larger inventories of retail space are still out there,

their tenants. This vacancy rate increase in the local market

such as the Ball Parks of America (old Red Roof Mall) and

has become a reflection of the national market as large

Branson Mall, which have either not been formally offered or

national tenants either reduce stores, the size of their stores

have been slow to be accepted by the market. Other than

or go out of business. Branson Landing and the Branson

the Branson Mall, occupancy rates on the Hwy. 76 corridor

Hills power center produced more vacancies during this

remain in the mid to upper 90% level.

time than in previous years. Due to the end of their 10-year lease terms and changes with predominately national

The Hwy. 65 and the Hollister interchange retail area is

tenants, Branson Landing ended 2016 with a higher vacancy

currently enjoying its lowest vacancy rate of just over 6%.

rate than normal. The center will quickly again reach a 97%

Rents continue to range from $8 to $10 PSF NNN and the

occupancy rate within the first quarter or by the summer of

out parcels in front of Menards are now on the market

2017 as new tenant leases are completed and announce-

at $10 PSF. It is anticipated that the citywide vacancy rate

ments will be made. Branson Landing has moved some

will drop to near 10%, perhaps lower by mid-year when

smaller stores, or did not renew some leases in order to

Branson Landing completes its new leases. We believe that

make room for several new national tenants.

community inspired retail, reflecting local culture and carrying local products, will provide a significant amount of

Many of the Branson Hills national tenants will also be

new business formations. Restaurants, in all categories,

reaching the end of their 10-year terms this year as well, so

along with specialty shops along with the introduction of

we expect some movement and new tenants in that

the ever expanding craft breweries and other entertainment

development in 2017.

experiences are expected to create ambiance for new retail centers. One such project is the Alley at The Grand Village

The Staples store located on Hwy 248 is not renewing its

that was recently announced and has begun marketing for

lease and that store will be divided into two for two new

retail, microbrewery, restaurants and hotel sites.

retail users. One major 15,000 ft. National tenant is in the final stages of completing their lease at this time. We expect this user to be named within the next 90 to 120 days. The remaining 8000 ft. space is being marketed for lease to an appropriate co-tenant at this time.

OCCUPANCY RATE AS OF JAN 1 2017 NET ABSORPTION FOR THE YEAR AVG. RENTS ON HWY 76 OTHER CAP RATES

86 PERCENT 6,710 sq. ft. $19.00 PSF NNN to $25.00 PSF NNN $ 8.00 PSF NNN to $11.00 PSF NNN 8% TO 8.2%

Noteworthy SOLD Transactions By Commercial 1 Brokers In 2016 • • • •

Lakeside at Branson Landing 30,000 SQ. FT. Retail Center The Tracks Land For new Branson Ferris Wheel 3 Acres of Land on Hwy. 76 Branson Lakes Chamber of Commerce 3 Acres of Land on Hwy. 248 for a new office facility Longhorn Steak House (Melody Lane Land) 2.9 Acres of Land on Hwy. 76

OFFICE There seems to have been lots of office activity during 2016, but unfortunately it didn’t create a great deal of new net absorption. Just under 7000 sq. ft. was absorbed in 2016, with the occupancy rate improved from 77% to 79%.

The majority of the vacancies can be found in the Class B and C space.

Rents have firmed and continue to range from $9 to $12 PSF NNN for Class A space while Class B and C space are from $6 to $8 PSF NNN. No Infill allowances are being offered, and only limited incentives that include a month’s free rent are being offered.

Until recently, there has been little employment growth in office inclined employment industries, certainly not enough to drive any real demand for space. A law firm will be leaving the Branson Financial Center who currently occupies a larger office space. They are building their own owner occupied building in Branson Hills. This vacancy will certainly negatively affect the building as it currently is 93% occupied. Several other large users of office space in real estate, insurance and financial counseling businesses have also either purchased or are building their own office building. Therefor we don’t forecast any major improvement in the office occupancy rates in 2017, in fact, we believe they might even decrease slightly again.

2017 should be the year that Mercy Hospital begins the construction of their new facility at the corner of Hwy 248 and Hwy 65. In addition to Mercy, the Branson Lakes Area Chamber and CVB hope to begin their new office facility on Gretna Road at the entrance of the shops at Branson Meadows before the end of the year.

Castle Rock Office

INDUSTRIAL The industrial market has steadily improved throughout 2016. Although occupancy rates still remain around 71%, the majority of the vacancies are in buildings that don’t meet the new demand criteria.

No new inventory has been built in 2015 or 2016 and of the 121,874 sq. ft. of existing inventory just over 35,000 sq. ft. is currently vacant. Asking rents range from $4.50 to $5.50 PSF modified gross. Even though vacancies are typically found in buildings that are not right for today’s user, both occupancy and rents are going to have to improve before new construction can be expected.

The supply of midsized, high ceiling buildings with larger storage yards and efficient dock configurations is virtually non-existent. Many of the existing inventory have ceiling heights of 14 ft. to as much as 21 ft. The market is demanding ceiling heights of 28 ft. to as much as 30 feet. Springfield is capturing all of this available market.

SOURCE: XCELIGENT

LODGING increase in sales, based on tourism tax collections restauBased on all methods of reporting, the Branson lodging

rants.

market continued its strong performance in 2016. Based on the 2017 STR Report, which is comprised primarily of flag

Only one new hotel has been built in Branson since the

properties and some larger independents, Branson recorded

opening of the two Hiltons at Branson Landing in 2006 and

its best results since the boom years in the early 90’s.

2007. An 89 room Hampton Inn was built in 2009 and a

Occupancy rates reached 54.5% for the year, which was a

new 94 room La Quinta Inn & Suites was open in Hollister

12.4% increase over the prior year. The Average Daily Rate

last year that is recording much early success.

reached $98.99 and Revenue Per Available Room was $53.95

Sale prices of existing properties have firmed up and quality

well over last years $47.83, a 12.8% increase.

available properties for sale are also limited. During the prior

The city wide tourism tax collection for lodging recorded a

five years existing properties were priced at levels that

5.3% increase over 2016. These collections reflect the

allowed the buyer to invest from $10,000 to $15,000 per

activity of all lodging properties within the tourism district.

room to remodel and still enjoy an increase in equity.

An increase number of “heads in beds” usually reflects an

The lodging customer has become more demanding and

increase in restaurant sales as well. Restaurant sales did

consider to expect a higher quality room experience than in

reflect the increases in lodging with a steady four year

the past.

SOURCE: City of Branson Tourism Tax Collections

By Category

RESIDENTIAL

Apartment owners are reporting much higher occupancies in the Branson area and some are reported to be planning additional units in 2017. Rents are firm and have risen

Branson area residential housing markets continued a

slightly over the past 12 months and may rise further in the

growth trend in 2016 with total sales exceeding the mark set

upcoming 12 months. However, rents in the market have

in 2007 but not exceeding the all-time high set in 2006.

historically been limited by the income of the potential

Total sales for the year as reported by the Tri-Lakes Board of

tenant pool. Most potential tenants in the area are hourly

Realtors reached nearly 2,050 units in 2016 exceeding sales

wage workers. Unless wages rise substantially rents cannot

in 2015 by 9.2%. As sales surged and little new inventory

rise without affecting occupancy since many potential

was created, the supply of improved residential property as

tenants may not be able to afford the rent. A new rent

measured by total listings declined 8.2% and the number of

subsidized complex came on line in the Hollister area in

new listings declined 5.7% year over year. The total sales

2016. Despite that fact a good deal of the lower end of the

volume in Stone and Taney Counties increased from $273

apartment market continues to be supplied by weekly

million in 2015 to $309 million in 2016 indicating a 13% rise.

rentals in older motels in the Branson area.

Residential sales prices increased in 2016 suggesting increasing values in the market. The median sale price

Overall the housing market continued to demonstrate

increased from $125,000 in 2015 to $130,000 in 2016.

strong positive growth in 2016 and there are no indications

Asking prices are rising, but sellers received slightly less of

that it will slow in 2017 unless supply limits sales.

the asking price in 2016 than 2015 (94% versus 91% in 2015 and 2016 respectively).

J. Jeschke Appraisal is a real estate valuation and consulting firm that has been operating in the Tri-Lake market

Residential agents are reporting a shortage of product to sell with little new inventory planned for 2017. Although there are rumors that new construction is beginning to take off in the market, there are no builders in the market creating large numbers of new single family residences. Existing inventory consists of less desirable properties which could cause overall sales to decline in 2017 unless a substantial number of new units are created. There continues to be an oversupply of residential lots on the market that are slowly absorbed. However, it appears most market participants have not yet realized there is a shortage of residential housing in the market or are unable to produce additional inventory at a price the market is willing to pay. The result is a lagging pace of residential lot sales and there are no new lots being created in the market.

since 1982.

COMMERCIAL LAND Since 2009 land sales have been stagnant to nonexistent. Increased land sales activity began anew in 2016 which we believe is further proof that the expansion stage of the commercial market is about to start. It has begun to be more difficult for a user to find a well located existing property and remodel it economically for their intended use.

The beginning of the Highway 76 redevelopment project by the city has triggered the sales of several properties during the year‌. both vacant and existing buildings that will be taken down. After the 2012 tornado that damaged and or destroyed several Hwy 76 properties, many vacant sites became available. Sites that were once either not available or were priced at well over one million dollars an acre are now being made available for sale at $9 PSF to over $15 PSF ($400,000 to $600,000 + per acre), depending upon size, terrain and location.

We expect sales activity and prices to continue to increase while good available properties become harder to obtain. More existing buildings that have exceeded their useful life will be torn down to make room for new projects on Hwy. 76.

Commercial land sales in other parts of Branson and not located on the Hwy. 76 corridor has not shown any significant improvement yet. A few parcel sales in the area of Menards in Hollister at the Hwy 65 and Hollister interchange are now being reported.

Hollister Menards

OPINIONS and OBSERVATIONS

The airport has been working to solve issues that are industry wide and not just coming to Branson. The lake of pilots and consolidation of airlines has helped to make the

WHAT WE SEE IN RETAIL

industry profitable, but unable to add service based on

Marketing to the Millennials is becoming the most import-

demand. Because the Branson Airport is a private entity, it

ant avenue for growth most of our retailers have experi-

has approached many of these challenges as would an

enced. Twitter-Facebook-Instagram- and probably several

entrepreneur versus a government bureaucracy. Many are

other apps that old real estate brokers don't even know

watching the innovative solutions being tried by airport staff

about are the way of the NOW, not the future. A recent real

and management to see if they could work at their airport.

estate negotiation, just completed for a multi-million dollar

Smaller airlines and airports all over the country are looking

transaction was communicated virtually all by Facebook

for new innovative ways to provide air service to a ready

Messenger and text messages over a couple week period.

market.

The final documents were emailed and signed electronically.

The closing took place in much the same way and is occur-

THE BRANSON CONVENTION AND VISITORS BUREAU

ring more often. Advertising for our shopping centers is

FINISHES A RECORD YEAR

more a marketing campaign for the shopping experience

The fourth year of an organized marketing effort by the

than the products and services available. Open Wi-Fi

Branson CVB culminated in record visitation, tax collections,

concepts and re-configured web sites and phone connec-

and occupancy rates. The CVB has been slowly refocusing

tion marketing is becoming a norm, even in little old

the Branson brand to our visitors while welcoming visitors of

Branson, MO. Our marketing partners are continually

all ages to enjoy Branson. Not only has Branson shown

upgrading and expanding all our real estate marketing

record results, the chief marketing officer, Leah Chandler

efforts as well as with our individual shopping center

received national recognition as have the Branson CVB.

properties. If you are doing business the same way you did

Congratulations to Jeff Seifert, President of the Chamber and

5, 10 or 20 years ago you probably aren’t doing much

CVB but to Leah and her small, exceptional staff for a job

business‌. No matter if you are a commercial realtor, a

well done.

retailer, a city or music show.

THE BRANSON AIRPORT IS ON ITS WAY TO SUCCESS After several starts and a great deal of efforts, we believe the Branson Airport is on the way to solving their air service issues. Recent added service that will begin to five cities will be only the beginning of expanded service, better connections and ease of booking.

Spirit of 76

COMMERCIAL 1 BROKERS The Branson Financial Center 500 West Main Street Suite 205: Branson, MO. 65616 417-334-3149 417-335-5152 fax CommercialOneBrokers.com Top of The Rock Chapel