Brenda presentation pre summit

PEACE and SECURITY Challenges on the African Continent

by Brenda Chikwe Mofya Oxfam Pan Africa Policy Advisor – Peace and Security/Governance

Pre-Summit Seminar, 29th June 2016

FOCUS OF THE PRESENTATION Peace and security trends – expected & unexpected developments AU/PSC interventions last 6 months – overview 27th Summit – what to expect? Recommendations/Way forward

29th June 2016

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Peace & Security : Trends Pre-Summit Seminar, 29th June 2016

Positive Developments • By close of 2015, large parts of Africa had become peaceful.

In terms of political and social stability Guinea Bissau, Egypt and Cote d’Ivoire made largest global improvement; • In terms of conflict events/Battles, fatalities, countries such as South Sudan, Burundi and CAR witnessed a lot of improvement; • Good governance, democracy & development gains also witnessed in many countries; e,g. Botswana, Ghana, Mauritius.

• Youngest Continent – 70% of population is under 39 years of age. Most productive if used well.

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Civil war, SS, December 2013 – 2015

ACLED (Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project)

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However….Picture still bleak Red24/Allia

ISS

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THE STATE OF GLOBAL PEACE

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Challenges •

Violent conflict continues – South Sudan, Burundi, CAR, Sudan, DRC, Libya, Mali etc – prostrated WESA, Somalia, Eritrea/Ethiopia (technically) - Africa currently occupies 60% of UNSC agenda • Fragile states - flawed democracy, autocratic regimes, corruption, poverty Civil war, violent protests, civil strife, xenophobia, unrest • Civil war, violent protests, civil strife, xenophobia, unrest • Emerging threats to peace – terrorism and illicit arms flow, Illicit financial flows – Nigeria, Lake Chad Basin, Sahel region, Djibouti, Libya Consequently…

• Refugee Crisis: Sub-Saharan African being host to the largest number of refugees, 4.4 million against global fig. 16.1 (Burundi 221,600, SS 162, 100, CAR 85,000, Nigeria 68,200, Eriteria 35,000, Somalia 13,700, Sudan 10,900) • Ethiopia home to– 736, 100 • IDPs - 30+ million • Migration/Mediterranean

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AU RESPONSE TO THE TRENDS PSC last 6 months/ 27th Summit Agenda

AU/PSC over the last 6 months • Issued numerous communiques on various thematic issues and conflict situations (more to the almost 600 since 2004) • Themes: elections, migration, arms control, post conflict reconstruction, Ebola virus, natural resource, climate change, border management, ICC, agriculture, UNSC/PSC relations, Women peace and security, children in armed conflict, violent extremism/terrorism • Situations: Burundi, Somalia, WESA, Guinea Bissau, Libya, South Sudan, Sudan, Mali, LRA, DRC Big question…

Impact??

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Summit…  Decisions on the Report of the Chairperson on state of peace and security on the continent, PSC activities  Alternative financing for AU-led peace support operations; 25% AU fund/ 75% UN Assessment contribution

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Going forward: what should the AU be considering

Going forward  Forging links between APSA & AGA  Clarity on the notion of subsidiarity – coordination and harmonisation of sub-regional responses/difference of opinions and approaches  Conflict management without real leverage – carrot stick, coercive power  Decisions vis a vis resource implications  Challenge of consistence of decisions at different levels  CSO engagement – Livingstone Formula/Maseru Conclusions

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THANK YOU Follow me on: Twitter: @Palabanapalms Email: Brenda.mofya@oxfaminternational.org

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