Bringing the future into your museum vision Bridget McKenzie
What’s your idea of a museum in the future? How far ahead is your horizon point? How much have museums changed the world? How much have external forces changed the world?
The same, but with extensions?
Utopian, exciting, urban, sci-fi?
Survive disaster with ingenuity?
Three ways to model futures 1. Normative: preferable future
Utopian 2. Extrapolating: probable future
Trends 3. Scenarios: possible futures
Multiple
Intelligible descriptions of possible future situations, based on a complex network of influence factors
Scenario models are advisable • Suit ‘wicked problems’ • Build resilience (roll with punches as you’ve seen them coming)
• Describe real contexts, evidenced with data • Include planning for risks
Shifts the question. Not... What do I hope will happen? OR What will happen? BUT What might happen and how can we act to optimise it? Slows the hope/ doom seesaw
But it’s not fully used, because • ‘Clumsy solutions’ only • Harder to imagine many possible futures than to determine one • You see you must act if you want to determine anything • Scenarios have to be constantly shuffled and re-appraised
What do we think influences the future? Popular models extrapolate most from consumer & emerging technology
The vision for Google Glasses
Ecology & climate Industry & economy Energy & food Consumer technology
Digital, a new layer on world • World was once nature + manmade things. We’re awed by the new layer. • Debate seesaws between technoutopian and anti-tech. • If we harness digital as regenerative interface to nature, awe will be justified • We think digital is the main feature of ‘now’ because it has been for 20 years
But, ‘now’ is different “The present – right now – is demonstrably different than and discontinuous from the world assumed as the starting point of much futurism” Alex Steffen
Vulnerable Uncertain Complex Ambiguous
Breaching of safe planetary boundaries
Breached ecology and climate
Humancontrolled influences Safe & just space for humanity
Scenarios museums should work with • Global recession & food crisis • Widespread human die-off • Conflicts threaten cultural heritage More positively... • Global alliances to co-operate • Ramping up green economy
Tropes for future-building scenarios Shiny silver
Bright green Silvery green Deep green
Blood red Silver & red Black
• Techno-utopia, problems solved • Visionary urbanism, people control nature • Digital networks lead green change • Hyper-local, small-scale, islands of survival, conservation • Strenuous effort on current tracks, more conflict, energy shortages • Mix of techno-utopia as ‘greenwash’ and growth on current tracks • No long-term future for humanity, focus on end-of-life therapy
Cultural orgs + emergent economic order
The commons & open source intelligence Health, food & skills = wealth
Alt currencies & gifting
Cultural orgs + emergent social order Amplified organisations Co-operative & connected communities Mass need for cultural therapy
Cultural orgs + emergent environmental order Hydro/nano & large-scale renewables • Localised & biodiverse agriculture
•Orgs driven by needs for eco & social repair
The people the future needs will have... The maker instinct Clarity Able to flip dilemmas Immersive learning Bio-empathy Constructive depolarisation Quiet transparency Rapid prototyping Smart mob organising Commons creating
Museums & other cultural orgs ...are well placed to play active role in nurturing the people the future needs. Staff, supporters & audiences
By nurturing these competencies 1. Creativity; design for good over profit; eco-innovation 2. Contextual learning; systems thinking 3. Multiple interpretations; paradox 4. Hands-on; practical immersion 5. Stewardship of cultural & environmental heritage
...matching the 10 skills for future 6. Diversity; show cultural connections 7. Public good; open data 8. More agile programming 9. Participatory engagement; change-making 10. Conserve and create cultural commons