Museum scenarios 2020 pres

Museum Scenarios 2020 Bridget McKenzie

Three ways to model futures

1. Norma=ve: desired future built on

common ideals 2. Extrapola=ng: probable future built on trends 3. Scenarios: possible futures built on both ideals and trends

Driving Forces and Uncertain=es • Understand megatrends (or major driving forces) for your focal issue • Dis@nguish between trends and megatrends.

THEN

• Understand the cri=cal uncertain=es for your issue • Dis@nguish between gamechangers and Black Swans

To simplify it‌

Gamechangers

Trends

Driving forces

Cri@cal uncertain@es Black Swans

Megatrends

Scale, complexity and power

Trends affec=ng museums by 2020 For example: • Public resources as open commons • Tradi@onal educa@on challenged by open and informal learning • Pressure for museums to have ever more social impact • More democra@c par@cipa@on

Event at Santa Cruz Museum of Art & History

Megatrends affec=ng museums • Unemployment in Europe • Austerity measures: cuts to museums BUT

• Growth in cultural tourism • Rapid advances in technology (especially ‘hypernature’ – enhancing bioservices)

Gamechangers affec=ng museums For example, • 3D prin@ng • Alterna@ve currency • Wearable tech • Crowds (posi@ve but also a shadow side)

Black Swans affec=ng museums …and everyone

• Global warming: two orders of magnitude greater in C21 than in last Ice Age; CO2 now at 400pmm • Ecocide: biodiversity losses • Resource insecurity • Social awareness of injus@ce causing unrest

Scenarios need constant feeding

Europe in 2020?

Europe2020 EU’s ‘Smart, Sustainable, Inclusive’ goals to tackle the crisis by 2020: • 75% employment • 20% less GHG emissions, 20% more efficient • 40% comple@ng higher educa@on • Lic 20 million out of poverty

Can you use any of this to build your scenarios?

Tech in 2020?

Tech visions 2020 ‘Internet of Things in 2020’ is one of several.

IoT2020: megatrends for this focal issue: • Data deluge: exacerbated by IoT • Energy shortage: devices must harvest own • Miniaturisa@on • Autonomic resources: self managing & healing

Brain control interface

Museums2020 • Museum Associa@on project • Bold vision for future of UK museums • Help museums think long term • Doesn’t aim to predict future • Ques@oning the sector & public on role & impact of museums on individuals, society & environment

How can we map future museum scenarios?

Mission: diversity and wellbeing

Social jus=ce

People’s museum

Green museum

Tradi=on

Disrup=on AOrac=on museum

Growth is god

Ecotopia

Unmuseum

Mission: wealth crea=on

Technoutopia

Without radical disrup=on…

People’s heritage destroyed through conflict.

Syria now, what next?

AOrac=on museum with no visitors?

Green Museum: Biomuseo in Panama

Green Museums 2020?

• Using and promo@ng alterna@ve currencies, or gicing • Cons@tuted as community coopera@ves • Modelling the ‘circular economy’ • Educa@on to develop future skills such as bioempathy

Unmuseum: Museum as base or catalyst

Unmuseums 2020?

• Unlimited by walls or tradi@ons • Focus on what people will pay for • Partnerships generate profit for crea@ve industries?

• 3D prin@ng: museums in your home?

• FabLab: tap museum knowledge of materials and context?

• Neuroscience and immersive memory narra@ves: as therapy?

Ideal: The Disrup=ve Museum?

Mix the Green and the Unmuseum?