SheYlin Pine Sales Gompany

And now, for the ninth consecutive time, we sit down to our typewriter to wish our friends o,f the lumber industry a peaceful and prosperous New Year, and to.express the well-worn hope that the depression will soon be over. Just how many more times do you suppose we will have to do that?

I get'quite a kick ou, olr*Ur"* back over our files, and reading the things we said, hoped, and predicted every Nsnr Year since that rnemorable fall of 1929. What a lousy prophet I am! And everyone else, too.

However, I find th"t ; ; :"-" very close guessing once in a while. For ins ance, in January, 1930, when the thing was just starting, I found myself writing: ,,And in 1930 man entered upon a period of world-wide depression, and he stayed there for a long, long time, for he was. AFRAID-AFRAID."

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Yes, Sir ! He stayed there for nine years, and his AFRAIDNESS had more to do with it than anything else. I don't mean by that that he had no grounds for his fears. He had" He has.

And r ran upolr . *"i;, : lumber friend wrote me in 1933, at a time when the depression was so old that everyone thought it must certainly be over. The wish, of course, was father to the tho,ught, and we were judging the possible lmgth of THIS depression by the average time scope of many previous ones. F. L. Hillyer, a lumberman of San Antonio, Texas, and a man who does some remarkable thinking, wtote me at that time about the possible end of the trouble being at hand, as follows:

"When I talk to the ; jra:oman on the street they universally and: unanimously declare 'the depression is over.' They have no reason for their confidence, but feel happy in its possession. Only under the inspiration of faith (which I am not prepared or disposed to deny, but which I am not spiritually equipped to affirm) can the popular enthusiastic optimism have any meaning. perhaps the voice of the people IS the voice of God; perhaps He prefers to speak through the mouths of babes; perhaps He gives to the illiterate, unseeing mind, powers of prescience and prophecy-a sixth sense-not to UNDERSTAND but to FEEL His will; to show that now as ever His disciples have been the lowly and humble. f say in no other way can this voice of the people haver any meaning. The prayer begins, 'Thy will be done,' and I see it as much in that spirit as my mind is capable of. But the mind is no bulwark o'f faith. That rests upon a basis of spiritudity which is peculiarly an American birthright, but which we have traded for a delusion of big business. And now, since that fails us, perhaps the way back is to rebuild the old spirituality." r reprint those word" i ; rlrnu", friend, first because of their eloquence; sedond because he was so right in doubting that hoping the depression was over, would bring its end nearer; and third, because he sums the text of the whole thing up in his final sentence, "perhaps the way back is to rebuild the old spirituality."

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Let us derive much happiness from the fact that, from a strictly lumber and building standpoint, conditions are much, much better today than they were on this date a year ago; and prospects for further improvement are likewise much brighter than they were then. Business con-

Paint Association Reprints

JACK DIONNE EDITORIAL fidence was at a mighty low ebb a year ago today, due to the 1937 "recession." (Uncle Dan Roper, Secretary of Commerce, referred to this situation in his last annual report as a "renewed depression," instead of a "recession," and see what happened to Uncle Dan.)

In the December fifth issue of The Open Door, publication of the National Paint, Varnish and Lacquer Association, is reprinted the editorial, "Kindly Competition is Strictly Modern," from a recent issue of the GCL. The editorial occupies the entire outside back cover page.

Says Mr. R. W. Emerson, of the association: "We thought this ospecially fitting for the Christmas season. The Gulf Coast Lumberman and THE CALIFORNIA LUMBER MERCHANT are not only reacl from cover to cover in this office each two rveeks, but are also passed around in this organization.

"The writer feels that it is a great pity that, generally speaking, the circulation of your e.ditorials is limited to the lumber industry. Some leading rveekly magazines of National circulation should be glad to carry them."

Beginning with early:;";, business and building conditions have improved very consistently during 1938. First, the dumping of new billions had a lot to do with it. The failure of the purge in politics, which had all thinking men scared just as they were during the attempted Supreme Court pack, brightened business visibly. The fall elections gave business a tremendous lift, renewing hope that the heel of politics on the throat of industry would surely be lightened if not lifted.

I believe the "pump nlttti"j' of the past six months helped the building business more than it did any other industry. Some wise man has truly said that "pump priming puts more goods on the shelves, but does not build more shelves." I think that well describes the situation. But much of the money that has gone into circulation has found its way into the pockets of the builders, and far and away the most practical effo,rt of the Government to insure recovery has been FHA. Most other efrorts seek reform. FHA aims at recovery by making intelligent loans on American homes, the money to be returned after it has accomplished its purpose. FHA is in full swing right now. f have no doubt but that its most effective year will be 1939.

Realizing full well ,n. l"i"i- of trying to,prophecy, I still feel that 1939 is going to be a good building year. It may even be a grand building year. Much is going to depend on politics, unfortunately. (I would again hazard the opinion that the depression will finally be over and rocovery won when business no longer has to watch politics, but can go back to the old fundamentals. For several years business and politics have been so closely interwoven that Solomon himself could no't have discussed industry withoutldiscussing politics, also) But by the time Congress has been in session sixQr days, things may be tremendously better. If business discovers that it is to be protected in its normal and natural efforts to "increase and multiply"; and if Congress shows that it aims its legislative guns toward helping remove many of the present fears of investors and employers, we could have grand times, and have them very quickly. Let us pray !

On the whole r believe ln"l o,irt""ss and industry in this country have a right to grin hopefully as they face the New Year.

How sad that the "f"fffr"A ,t*ld in general cannot look