The Socialists have won an absolute majority in the French parliamentary elections, giving the new President, François Hollande, a free hand to implement the key measures of his presidential programme. The Socialists and their allies won an absolute majority in the National Assembly without the need for support from the Greens or the far-left ‘Left Front’ party, and now have unprecedented freedom to govern. As well as the Presidency and the National Assembly, the Socialists also have control of the Senate, having won, in 2011, a majority in the upper house for the first time in the Fifth Republic. The Socialists and its allies also govern a majority of French cities and all but one of France’s regional councils. This situation gives Mr Hollande a free rein to pass reforms promised in his presidential election manifesto, including a tax hike for France’s highest earners. The President will also have backing for a new call at European level for growth measures - a position that seems to puts him at odds with Angela Merkel’s austerity doctrine. All members of the government passed the electoral test and there are likely to be few changes. Elsewhere, the far-right National Front re-entered parliament, with 22-year old Marion Maréchal Le Pen becoming France’s youngest deputy since 1791.
Even the most optimistic predictions had not foreseen such a large majority for the Socialists (PS). The party of the new President, François Hollande, has 280 seats in the National Assembly. This number increases to 314 with the support of representatives of the moderate centre-left ‘Parti Radical de Gauche’ (PRG - 12 seats) and other left-wing groups, such as the Republican Movement, who entered an electoral pact with the PS (and who won 22 seats). With the Senate already controlled by the Left, Mr Hollande and his new Prime Minister, Jean-Marc Ayrault, will have a free hand to enact the laws proposed in the Socialists’ manifesto. Socialist candidates in the parliamentary elections benefited from the success of Mr Hollande. Every minister in the new government was reelected, even those who were in difficult situations in their constituencies. (This is in contrast to 2007, when Alain Juppé lost his seat shortly after being named in the government of President Nicolas Sarkozy). As a result, the traditional ministerial reshuffle that occurs after parliamentary elections should be very minor. It seems likely that only a couple of deputy ministers will change or be appointed to reflect the support of other parties in the left-wing parliamentary alliance. However, there are some concerns for the Socialists. The record low turnout of 55.4% has somewhat distorted the landscape. Some leading Socialist figures were defeated: Jack Lang, a former minister, lost in Vosges (in Lorraine, North-East France); Segolène Royal, the PS’s presidential candidate in 2007 and former partner of Mr Hollande, lost in La Rochelle (Western France) to a dissident
Socialist candidate, Olivier Falorni. (Mr Falorni had rejected the party's request to stand down when Ms Royal scored higher in the first round, and controversially received a tweeted message of support from Mr Hollande's new partner, Valérie Trierweiler.) Ms Royal’s defeat means that Mr Hollande cannot appoint her to the post of President of the National Assembly, paving the way for a new race for that office. This clear victory means that the Socialists will not have to give into pressure from the Greens and the far-left ‘Left Front’ (FdG), and their demands for even greater State spending. However, with 17 deputies the Greens will be able to constitute for the first time a proper parliamentary group in the National Assembly. This status will give the Greens more money, more political clout and more media attention. With two ministers and a formal parliamentary group, the Greens have influence that extends beyond their number of deputies - due in the main to an advantageous alliance with the Socialists that was agreed before the presidential election. On the contrary, with only ten seats, the FdG does not reach the threshold of 15 seats that is required to form a parliamentary group. The FdG’s presidential candidate, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, lost in the first round of the parliamentary elections on 10 June. With a total of 228 seats - a number that includes its centre-right allies in New Centre party (NC, 12 seats) and the Radical Party (PRV, six seats) - the Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) faces an identity crisis. Among the forthcoming challenges for the party of the former president, Nicolas Sarkozy, is the redefinition of its doctrine, which still bears the mark of Mr Sarkozy’s shift
rightwards, aimed at attracting voters away from the extremeright National Front (FN). Claude Guéant - a hardline interior minister under Mr Sarkozy lost his seat, as did Michèle Alliot-Marie, a former foreign minister. The Democratic Movement (MoDem), the party of centrist leader and former presidential candidate François Bayrou, won only two seats. Mr Bayrou was himself defeated. While the leader of the National Front, Marine Le Pen, was defeated by around 100 votes in the north-eastern constituency of Hénin-Beaumont, the extreme right was successful elsewhere. Marion Maréchal Le Pen (the niece of Marine Le Pen. and at 22 France’s youngest deputy since 1791) and lawyer Gilbert Collard won seats in the National Assembly. Jacques Bompard, a former FN member, was elected in the south-eastern city of Orange and will bring the number of far-right representatives in the lower house of Parliament to three. Despite this symbolic entrance, the difference between the FN’s support (17.9% in the presidential election) and the number of
seats the party won in the National Assembly has revived the debate over reform of the voting system for parliamentary elections, where the second round can see supporters of mainstream parties join together to defeat extremist candidates. Turnout in Sunday’s second round was 55.4% - a However, this is the fourth time in eight weeks that been asked to go to the polls (in two rounds of elections and two rounds of parliamentary elections), a sense of electoral fatigue.
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The low turnout sparked some calls to alter the electoral timetable. Since 2002, parliamentary elections have taken place straight after the presidential election, helping to give the President a strong parliamentary majority and ensuring more coherent government, but also somewhat reducing the power and independence of the National Assembly. For the first time, French citizens living abroad have been able to elect Members of Parliament. Eleven super-constituencies were created, the PS winning seven of them, including five of the seven constituencies covering parts of Europe.
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In terms of domestic politics, the results of the parliamentary elections put the Socialists and their allies in position of unprecedented power. Parliament is due to reopen on 26 June and François Hollande is likely to call an extraordinary session that will last until 3 August and which will examine the first bills of his new government. Public finance reform will be a major issue in the early months. After the publication of a report by the French Court of Auditors (due in late June or early July) the government will unveil its first public finance measures. At stake are tens of billions of euros of additional levies that were included in Mr Hollande’s pre-election proposal for a new tax framework: the reinstatement of a wealth tax, an end to tax cuts on overtime, and an end to tax cuts on inheritance rights. Other bills, including a promised clean-up of the banking sector, will be postponed to the autumn. Bills on employment and industry issues will be first discussed with social stakeholders and trade unions during the social summit, to be held on 9-10 July. The bills include measures to end abusive social security arrangements in companies, to restore the retirement age to 60 for people who began work at the age of 18, and equality in the workplace. The debates on these bills are likely to continue beyond the extraordinary session. The Socialists’ victory in the parliamentary elections does not have any real significance for the euro crisis, although it does help to reinforce Mr Hollande’s position in discussions with Angela Merkel, especially on the issue of austerity measures. It also means that his alternative to austerity will now be put to the test: its success or otherwise may have a bearing not only on the fortunes of the French President and government, but also on the German federal parliamentary elections, due to be held in autumn 2013. The establishment of similar growth measures at a European level will be another challenge for Mr Hollande, who will be in Rome on Friday 22 June with the leaders of Italy, Germany and Spain as a prelude to the next summit of European leaders, which will take place on 28-29 June.