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NGUS APR 24 2019 363.30

he two main contenders in Nigeria’s presidential election on Saturday, February 16, have had their last says on why they deserve to lead Africa’s largest economy for the next four years.

Adebowale Edward Doherty (l), director-general, Nigerian Norwegian Chamber of Commerce, with Sarah Dumbrill, senior marketing manager, during the visit of the BusinessDay management team to the chamber in Lagos, yesterday.

Pic by Olawale Amoo

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Candidates in final push for votes ahead of tight Nigeria election T LOLADE AKINMURELE

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Download e-copy of Women’s Hub from www.businessday.ng

As Buhari ends campaign with national broadcast

Official campaigning ended Thursday and incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari took the opportunity to deliver a national address, wherein he vowed that the elections will take place in a “secure and

peaceful atmosphere”.

“It was indeed such free, fair and peaceful elections that made it possible for our government to emerge, despite the fact that we were contesting against a long-standing incumbent party,”

Buhari said in the 20-minutelong address.

After assuring Nigerians, the diplomatic community and all foreign election observers of Continues on page 34

Venezuela’s crisis shows why credible elections matter this Saturday ISAAC ANYAOGU

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enezuela has two presidents but none of them has a handle on an economy in tatters. Three million of its 31 million people have fled the country. Inflation has risen over 1,000,000 percent, which means the price of bread will double when you return to buy again by evening. Now there Continues on page 34

Inside Eyes on INEC, security agencies as Nigerians go P. A3 to the poll

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Friday 15 February 2019

IMF says Nigeria, SSA to produce over half of world labour force by 2035

... Points policymakers to fintech potential for inclusive growth

HOPE MOSES-ASHIKE

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he International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Thursday that more than half of those entering global labour market by 2035 will be in sub-Saharan Africa, including Nigeria.

Nigeria’s unemployment rate increased from 18.8 percent in the third quarter of 2017 to 23.1 percent in the third quarter of 2018, according the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

Consequently, IMF said policymakers in sub-Saharan Africa will need to address several trade-offs to reap the potential benefits of fintech.

“Technological innovation and infrastructure development can play key roles in allowing the continent to transform its demographic dividend into jobs, growth, and rising living standards for all,” IMF said in a report titled ‘Fintech in sub-Saharan Africa: A Potential Game Changer’.

There is much uncertainty around the ultimate impact of financial technology (fintech) and policymakers in sub-Saharan Africa as in other regions of the world. At times, the speed of adoption of technology will even be faster in the region, as in the case of the rapid growth of mobile payments.

“The question is if Nigeria is adequately prepared for the fintech revolution,” Ayodele Akinwunmi, head of research at FSDH Merchant Bank Limited, said in an emailed response to BusinessDay. “Our educational system has to change radically and well-funded to equip the students and graduates with the required Information Communications and Technology (ICT) skills to make them relevant in the 4th industrial revolution which is the digital revolution,” Akinwunmi said.

Since 2010, more than US$50 billion has been invested in almost

2,500 companies worldwide as fintech redefines the way we store, save, borrow, invest, move, spend, and protect money (Skan, Dickerson, and Gagliardi 2016).

The report revealed that the region has become the global leader in mobile money innovation, adoption, and usage, with close to 40 out of 45 subSaharan African countries actively using this new financial technology.

Nigeria recorded less than 5,000 of mobile money transactions per 100,000 adults, according to the 2015 IMF Financial Access Survey, while Kenya recorded over 40,000 transactions.

However, the Nigeria Inter-Bank Settlement System (NIBSS) electronic payment factsheet for first half of 2018 indicated that the volume of transactions rose to 35.94 million in 2018 from 24.17 million recorded in H1’17, representing 53 percent increase.

Mobile money accounts have now overtaken traditional bank accounts in several sub-Saharan African economies. Based on data for 17 subSaharan African countries for which both mobile money and traditional bank account data are available, there were nearly twice as many traditional deposit accounts as mobile money accounts in 2012. By 2015, mobile money accounts surpassed traditional deposit accounts in these 17 economies, which include some of the largest in sub-Saharan Africa, such as South Africa, Kenya, and Tanzania.

IMF said close to 10 percent of GDP in transactions is occurring through mobile money, compared with just 7 percent of GDP in Asia and less than 2 percent of GDP in other regions. Most transactions are used to send and receive domestic remittances. Increasingly, transactions are also being used for domestic transfers such as paying utility bills, receiving wages, and payments for goods and services.

Nigeria offers additional N150bn savings bonds for subscription in February OLUWASEGUN OLAKOYENIKAN

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he Debt Management Office (DMO) has announced plans to offer for subscription additional three Federal Government savings bonds worth N150 billion to investors for February 2019.

The issuance of the debt securities comes after DMO ended its February auction, Friday, on two-year and three-year savings bonds expected to mature on Feb 13, 2021 and 2022 at 12.05 percent and 13.05 percent interest rates per annum, respectively.

According to DMO, which offers the fixed-income instruments on behalf of the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN), the additional savings bonds offering valued at N50 billion each comprise 12.75 percent FGN April 2023 for five-year re-opening, 13.53 percent FGN March 2025 for seven-year reopening, and 13.95 percent FGN February 2028 for ten-year

re-opening.

The securities will be auctioned on Wednesday, Feb. 20 and have a settlement date of February 22, according to a recent circular by the DMO. “For re-openings of previously issued bonds (where the coupon is already set), successful bidders will pay a price corresponding to the yield-to-maturity bid that clears the volume being auctioned, plus any accrued interest on the instrument,” DMO said.

The debt office further assured that the bonds are backed by the full faith and credit of the Federal Government of Nigeria and are charged upon the general assets of Nigeria with semi-annual coupon payments to bondholders and bullet repayment on the maturity date.

The FGN Savings bonds are exempted from taxes and are targeted at encouraging lowincome earners to save and earn more interests than the regular bank savings.

BONDS

L-R: Aigboje Aig-Imoukhuede, chairman, Wapic; Vera Songwe, executive secretary, UN Economic Commission for Africa; Olukayode Pitan, managing director, Bank of Industry (BoI), and Kenneth Moses, during the 32nd Ordinary Summit of the African Union Assembly of Heads of States and Government in Addis Ababa, Ethopia.

Nigeria’s cassava potential stuck in low innovation, poor financing CALEB OJEWALE

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hen a consumer visits the market to purchase garri for consumption and stumbles on different ‘classy’ packaging of the product other than the usual containers, there is bound to be some confusion. This confusion for the potential buyer could even be more if the seller displays garri produced by, for instance, Flour Mills of Nigeria or Golden Penny.

But that was in the past. Today, the market is changing as manufacturers are beginning to bet big on consumer products like garri, which before now was seen as an exclusive preserve of small-scale local (often rural) processors.

Nigeria is the world’s largest producer of cassava, but the well-known application of the product remains processing into garri, and at other times fufu, both staple foods.

Yet, there are other industrial uses of cassava which, if explored, can provide multi-billion dollar returns, create jobs, and stimulate industrial growth.

Major industrial products from cassava include ethanol, industrial starch, cassava flour, glucose syrup,

COMMODITIES sweetener, etc. These products are also raw materials to numerous industrial items with limitless domestic and export market potentials.

If adequately harnessed, cassava can trigger an industrial revolution in Nigeria, empowering even rural dwellers who substantially farm the crop, according to the Nigeria Cassava Growers Association (NCGA).

It will also precipitate the establishment of various cassava-based industries, the association said.

In a document sent to BusinessDay in 2016, NCGA highlighted how Nigeria can generate as much as N10 trillion yearly from cassava, including processing into ethanol.

The cassava growers’ body identified SKG-Pharma Ltd, PZ Industries plc, Emzor Pharmaceuticals Industries Ltd, Unilever, Daily Needs Industries Ltd, Mopson Pharmaceuticals Ltd, Drugfield Pharmaceuticals Ltd, and New Heathway Co. Ltd as some of the potential off-takers for ethanol in Nigeria, 97 percent of which is imported owing to lack of adequate local supply.

Other potential off-takers identified

by NCGA include Neimeth International Pharma plc, Therapeutic Laboratories Ltd, Vitabiotics Nig. Ltd, Guinness Nig. plc, Nestle Nig. plc, Nigerian Breweries plc, Pharma-Deko Nig. plc, UAC Nig. plc, among many others.

Economic dynamics, notably infrastructural deficit, have, however, continued to be blamed for the lack of processing of cassava into different forms.

“All processors in Nigeria are still struggling to produce 2 percent of starch the country needs,” said Nike Tinubu, president, Industrial Cassava Stakeholders Association of Nigeria, in a phone interview.

This is in spite of the abundance of cassava in Nigeria, where prices are considered favourable and, as a result, more people go into cultivation of the crop. This often results in a glut, which translates into a crash in prices and huge losses for farmers.

Many cassava processors would rather stay with garri, largely ignoring the numerous industrial uses for the crop as, according to Tinubu, “the equipment to make garri is not capital-intensive”.

•Continues online at www.businessday.ng

Landlord/tenant cases in court rising as economic hardship deepens CHUKA UROKO & ODUNAYO OYASIJI

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he last 24-36 months in Nigeria have seen considerable rise in court cases involving landlords and their tenants who, for reasons that are largely economic, are defaulting in their house rents payments as at when due. Analysts say this is a reflection of how deep the economy has plunged within the period.

Nigeria exited a crippling 15-month economic recession in the second quarter of 2017 (Q2 2017), but the impacts are still being felt as many people, especially those in paid employment, are still smarting from job losses and salary cuts for those who could be considered

to be lucky.

Many of the young executives who lost their jobs can no longer afford their rents. Some of those who are still at work are not sure of their salaries, leading to high rent default rate. Some of them have moved from the mid-income locations where rents ranged from N2 million to N3 million per annum for a duplex to areas where rents are relatively lower at N 1million to N1.5 million per annum, yet they find it difficult to pay.

The relationship between a tenant and his landlord is generally contractual. This relationship usually doesn’t encounter problem for as long as the tenant pays his rent regularly. Most landlords are not

even keen about how well the tenant is taking care of the property as long as the rent is being paid on a regular basis. But the relationship goes sour when the tenant defaults in payment of rent. Most landlords resort to legal action to either compel the tenant to pay the rent owed or to recover their property.

Because of the prevailing economic hardship, landlord-tenant cases in court have been on the increase in the last two years and are not restricted to any one state. It is country-wide.

“Merely visiting the courts will provide an insight into the volume of tenancy cases going on in the courts.

Continues on page 34

Friday 15 February 2019

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PWC chief economist outlines 4 structural issues dragging Nigeria’s economy ENDURANCE OKAFOR

… says NNPC role as operator/regulator confusing

ttaining doubledigit Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for Nigeria seems almost like an athlete who dreams of creating a record by walking from Africa to North America.

The country’s highest quarter growth rate of 2.38 percent since its exit from recession in Q2 2017 is nothing close to Ghana’s 7.4 percent in Q3 2018, and Ethiopia’s 8 percent.

On why Africa’s largest economy lags its peers, Andrew Nevin, chief economist at PWC, told BusinessDay in Lagos on Wednesday that there are a number of structural issues that are preventing the ease of doing business in Nigeria from helping to fasten economic growth.

“One is the fuel subsidy.

We feel it is something for the wealthy and not for a country like Nigeria,” Nevin said. “We understand the logic behind the FX regime, but the truth is that it con-

fuses people, it confuses investors, so they stop investing,” he said.

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows into Africa’s largest economy are worsening, according to data released by National Bureau of Statistics.

On year-on-year basis, FDI fell 58.7 percent in Q4 2018 to $156.08 million, from $378.42 million recorded a year earlier.

The long-term investment into the country for the review period represents 7.11 percent or $1.19 billion of the total $16.8 billion capital imported in 2018, close to the same amount the government raised in a single Eurobond issue of $1 billion in February 2019.

Another issue that drags the country’s economic growth as cited by Nevin was the NNPC. “We continue to have problems in the oil industry where we are not able to pass the Petroleum Indus-

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try Bill (PIB), so we are not able to really organise investment into that. We have the NNPC playing both the roles as the regulator and as an operator, and that’s confusing,” he said.

After a 17-year struggle to pass the PIB which aims to increase transparency and stimulate growth in Nigeria’s oil industry, the House of Representatives passed a version of the bill in 2018, which is the same as the one approved by the Senate in 2017, the Petroleum Industry Governance Bill (PIGB). President Muhammadu Buhari is yet to assent to the bill.

“We have been very adamant about the real estate industry considering it is a very critical sector for growth and employment because it employs a lot of people. Everyone needs a house and the major issue about the real estate sector is that it is still held back by the Land Use Act,” Nevin said.

Ahead of elections, soldiers force trucks off Apapa roads ISAAC ANYAOGU

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he APC-led federal and Lagos State governments yesterday used soldiers to clear trucks away from Western Avenue leading into Apapa. They also directed traffic around the port city.

BusinessDay correspondent also observed that APC party flag now dons streetlights that line the Ijora Bridge, even if they don’t come on at night.

Many who live in Lagos express the view on social media that this temporary relief is a ploy to make voters forget their harrowing experiences on the road, long enough to vote the APC into power again.

Recall that last week trucks were also cleared from major roads in Lagos as

the President made a campaign stop. Barely two hours after he left, they were back again on the road.

In the past two years, the Lagos State government has not shown enough imagination to deal with the problem, preferring to appeal where sanctions could suffice.

During the tenure of Babatunde Fashola, he built a park and banned trucks from parking on the highway using law enforcement agencies to ensure compliance.

His predecessor has not replicated the feat. At a Town Hall meeting in Apapa last year, Akinwunmi Ambode, Lagos State governor, said the ABAT Truck Terminal, which was still undergoing construction could accommodate about 300 trucks at the time and appealed to truck drivers to use it.

“For now, the terminal

can take about 300 trucks but it is been under-utilised.

We urge truck owners to utilise the terminal to reduce traffic gridlock on the roads in Apapa and Lagos central axis,” he said.

The truck drivers ignored him and chaos ruled Apapa, until the elections drew closer. Now the soldiers have forced them to park in the abandoned terminal.

It took Julius Berger eight months to complete repair works on less than 100 meters of Marine Bridge and nearly a year for the ministry of works to complete repair work on less than 200 meters stretch of failed road on Ijora Bridge.

Weeks to the elections, these projects have been delivered and formed campaign speaking points of Babatunde Fashola during the President’s campaign stop in Lagos.

World Radio Day: Edo advocates innovative programming to curb illegal migration, fake news

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overnor Godwin Obaseki of Edo State has made a case for the use of innovative radio programming to curb contemporary challenges in society such as illegal migration and the spread of fake news.

The governor made the submission in commemoration of the United Nations World Radio Day, marked on February 13, each year.

He said: “The transformational power of radio presents a crucial tool in mobilising people for action. This latent

advantage should be deployed by stakeholders to find lasting solution to the scourge of illegal migration as well as the spread of fake news.”

Noting that the watchdog function of the media bestows on practitioners the latitude to lead campaigns in checking societal ills, he said, “As we commemorate World Radio Day, it is important to stress the role of this medium in engaging all members of society and providing them with critical information they need to make life’s decisions.

So, as we advance the cam-

paign against irregular migration and human trafficking, we call on the media to further amplify our efforts.”

He stressed that the trend of fake news in society must be checked so as to maintain the sanctity and integrity of mass communicated messages.

“A lot has been said about the need for people to be more circumspect in consuming information on the Internet, but it must be stressed that the traditional media need to ensure they protect their space.”

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Nigeria’s economy back on track - Dipeolu SEGUN ADAMS

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pecial adviser to the President on Economic Matters, Adeyemi Dipeolu, has expressed satisfaction in the progress recorded in the Nigerian economy since it plunged to its more than two-decade low growth in the wake of a significant oil price slide, which reared its head almost at a time the then newly elected President Muhammadu Buhari took reins of control.

Figures from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Tuesday reveal that in the fourth quarter of 2018, Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 2.38 percent in real terms (year-on-year).

This represents an increase of 0.27 percent points when compared with the fourth quarter of 2017, which recorded a growth rate of 2.11 percent Responding to the NBS report, Laolu Akande, senior

special assistant to the President on media and publicity, said, “The 2.38 percent for Q4 2018 show an appreciable improvement in the growth performance of the economy.

The figures are encouraging in several respects.”

Meanwhile, in a recent media parley, Dipeolu explained that the current administration, which came into office with three priorities; to improve security, tackle rampant corruption and improve the economy, had recorded success in achieving to a good extent, its economic mandate.

Referencing the difficulties of 2015 and 2016 where the country was faced with a quagmire of difficulties including a rapidly declining exchange rate, deteriorating reserves, increasing inflation and diverging exchange rates, Dipeolu explained that the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP) was a good response in addressing the issues, noting with satisfaction the level of consultation across all sector that

aided its formulation. ‘’The response was the ERGP, which was developed in an inclusive manner with inputs from state governments, the National Assembly, the private sector, labour, academia and development partners,’’ he said.

He pointed out improvements in vital macroeconomic indicators like economic growth to around 2 percent in 2018, which although “is not enough,” but still was in line with the forecast made by experts; easing inflation rates from a peak of 18.7 percent to around 11.3 percent today; a more robust reserve of over $43 billion with improved capital inflows and trade balance.

“Indeed, the economy remains well on course to grow by 3 percent in 2019, as estimated in the Medium Term Expenditure Framework,” Akande said.

The Special Adviser to the President also explained that MSMEs remain at the fore of all developmental plans as

they were critical to the sustenance of the Nigerian economy, hence, MSMEs were direct beneficiaries of various programmes and project of the government including Government Empowerment and Enterprise Programme, which provided interest free credit to table top traders, members of market associations, farmers and artisans.

“We are working closely with the private sector through the Quarterly Business Forum, the Nigerian Industrial Policy and Competitiveness Advisory Council, and the MSME Clinics,’’ he said.

Furthermore, Dipeolu highlighted infrastructural development under President Muhammadu Buhari whose commitment to capital projects had been evident in the allocation of funds to road projects, including channelling the proceeds of Sukuk bonds of N200 billion for constructing, repairing and maintaining Federal roads across all 36 states.

L-R: Obinna Anyanwu, country head (Nigeria), Commonwealth Enterprise and Investment Council (CWEIC); Ezekiel Egboye, COO, Rack Centre; Nozipho Sibanda finance director Rack Centre; Lord Marland of Odstock, chairman, Commonwealth Enterprise and Investment Council (CWEIC), and Ayotunde Coker, managing director/ CEO, Rack Centre, during a visit of CWEIC to the Rack Centre Limited in Lagos.

Illegal arms seizures signal danger for Saturday’s election … as analysts blame porous border stations, inefficient Customs AMAKA ANAGOR-EWUZIE

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he palpable fear gripping Nigerians ahead of Saturday’s presidential and national Assembly election heightened when men of the Federal Operations Unit (FOU) Zone A of the Nigeria Customs Service (NCS) intercepted bales of police uniform, tear gas canisters and other paraphernalia of the Nigeria Police Force (NPF) barely few days to election.

This interception adds fuel to the fire of recurring cases of importation and smuggling of illicit arms and ammunition into the country through the porous border stations and seaports.

Nigeria, the world’s sixth

biggest producer of oil, is still battling with in-country terrorism since the advent of Boko Haram and the farmer-herder conflicts that have swept across the country’s north-central region, leading to thousands of deaths and destruction of valuable property.

BusinessDay checks show that in December 2016, the Tin-Can Island Port Command of Customs intercepted a set of guns concealed in an imported used vehicle, alongside some military camouflages and large quantity of gun accessories such as gun pellet and riffle paunch.

Between January and September 2017 alone, the Nigeria Customs Service (NCS) intercepted a total of 2,671 pump action rifles. Also, a

Nigeria-bound Russian cargo ship, LADA, was arrested at the Port of Nura, near Port Elizabeth in South Africa, for carrying illegal arms.

In July 2018, about 393 rounds of live ammunition was impounded at Tin-Can port, while another container load of weapons was also intercepted by Customs in January 2019, few weeks to the general elections.

Muhammed Aliyu, Customs Area Controller of the FOU Zone A, who described the impounded uniforms as threat to national security if obtained by wrong hands, listed items like ranks, belts, berets and police badges with identity cards as part of the intercepted items.

“The seizure is a threat to

national security because the uniform can be used for kidnapping, Boko Haram or to frustrate elections but generally, it threatens national security. For instance, one bundle of this uniform can go for 10 persons and Nigerians will confuse such persons with Police not knowing that they are impostors,” Aliyu said.

Tony Anakebe, managing director, Gold Link Investment Ltd, a Lagos-based clearing and forwarding firm, expressed fear over the recurring illegal importation of arms and ammunition since 2016, saying it has become a trend for Nigeria’s political powerhouses to fortify their members with weapons to execute violence during or after elections.

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ANAP Polls shows Buhari in lead ahead of Saturday’s presidential elections

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NAP Foundation, a non-profit organisation that is committed to promoting Good Governance has released results of a nationwide opinion poll conducted by NOI Polls limited at the end of January which revealed that APC Flag bearer and Incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari to be in the lead ahead of Saturday’s polls.

According to the report of the polls commissioned by ANAP Foundation, “ Buhari leads but his lead is not unassailable because Atiku has momentum and may appeal more to undecided voters” The result of the poll confirms the presidential race to be a keen contest between President Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressive Congress (APC) and Alhaji Atiku Abubakar of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP).

According to the poll, the number of undecided voters and/or those who have chosen not to reveal their choice candidate is up to 38% of the electorate as women make up a larger proportion of the electorates that could swing either way, with a ratio of 49:29 (women to men) in the undecided.

Across the geopolitical zones, South East and South West had the high-

est number of Undecided while the North East and North West zones had the least.

Continuity, Fight against Corruption, Integrity were the priorities of the surveyed population rooting for a second tenure for PMB as only 2% had expectations for a better economy, whereas, supporters of Atiku hope for a change in Governance, better Economy, and Better Governance among other things.

The result shows that Buhari might face difficulties in the South East Zone because of the largest concentration of Undecided voters in the region where he is weakest.

“Voters turnout can also make a big difference on the day, especially if there is considerable disparity in turnout figures across the geopolitical zones’’ ANAP Foundation is a non-profit organisation that is committed to promoting Good Governance.

According to information the organisation’s website, ‘’the initial focus has been on Nigeria because of an identified and embarrassingly large governance deficit that is prevalent in this country from which the bulk of our funding emanates’’

Banks to commit part of balance sheet to fund creative, IT, power sectors ONYINYE NWACHUKWU, Abuja

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igeria’s Commercial lenders on Thursday announced their decision to commit part of their profit - up to 5 percent- to support four critical sectors of the economy, including the movie, music, fashion, Information Technology as well as the power sectors.

The lenders announced the decision arising from the 342nd meeting of the Bankers Committee in Abuja.

Chief Executive Officer of Access Bank, Hebert Wigwe who spoke at a media briefing said the nature of the funding would be long term debt at reasonable interest rates and could be as cheap as 5 percent which is quasi equity and enough to support them.

He said whether industry participants would bring in some equity would be looked at on a case by case basis, and may not be significant.

“There are four significant sectors that would be supported with a lot of resources, the music, movie, fashion and IT industries.

In terms of the total funding required, the specific amount has not been determined, but the final details would be determined and agreed this coming week, even though though there are rough estimates,” Wigwe explained.

“But I am sure the funding would be just enough to create the quantum leap required in the market place,” he stated, assuring that the infrastructure that would be built would be of world class standard.

“We basically found out that that sector will generate significant amount of employment and GDP given how Nigerian creative sector has done well, it can help the country become the heart of tourism if that sector is handled properly.

It could also be a major source foreign earnings if we investsignificantly in those sectors,” he said.

He specifically said that what the Bankers Committee wants to do is to help provide relevant infrastructure or rather funding that industry participants would use to create relevant infrastructure and shared facilities for each of these sectors.

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Real estate’s 0.48% annual growth rate in Q4’18 validates sector still in recession CHUKA UROKO

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eal estate sector in Nigeria has continued its stay in negative growth territory and the figures from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) fourth quarter 2018 report released a couple of days ago have shown that the sector is still in recession long after the wider economy exited recession in the second quarter of 2017.

The NBS report shows that, on an annual basis, the sector’s nominal growth rate was 0.48 percent in 2018, lower than the 3.01 percent recorded in 2017 unlike the figures reported on a growth sector such as manufacturing.

In the manufacturing sector, which comprises 13 activities, the annual growth rate was 2.09 percent in 2018,

which was a significant improvement over the previous year’s growth rate of –0.21 percent.

This, however, contrasts with agriculture which, in spite of all the hype, especially with the over 90 percent rice import reduction, still recorded an annual 2018 growth rate of 2.12 percent, which is lower than the 3.45 percent recorded in 2017.

The growth trajectory in the real estate sector is a clear indication that the wider economy is moving without that sector. But there are reasons for that.

“The real estate sector is a laggard in the economic structure for several reasons, particularly in its position in people’s priorities; that is, what people take as something that impacts their lives.

In the hierarchy of man’s needs, food comes first, shelter follows and then housing.

“Another reason is the nature of the capital required for investment in real estate.

Generally, real estate investment is not the kind of thing you do on short-term basis.

You have to plan for it,” explained Femi Akintunde, GMD, Alpha Mead Group, in an interview.

The wider economy, according to the NBS Q4 report, had a good showing. Within the period, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 2.38 percent in real terms (yearon-year), representing an increase of 0.27 percent points when compared to the fourth quarter of 2017, which recorded a growth rate of 2.11 percent. This also indicates a rise of 0.55 percent points when compared with the growth rate recorded in Q3 2018. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, real GDP growth was 5.31 percent.

This growth could not,

however, lift the real estate sector. But it should be pointed out that, in nominal terms, the real estate services grew by 3.78 percent, higher than the growth rate reported for Q4 2017 by 7.12 percent points, and higher by 0.11 percent points when compared to the preceding quarter.

The sector’s contribution to nominal GDP in Q4 2018 and for the whole of 2018 stood at 7.07 percent and 6.76 percent, respectively, which is slightly lower than the comparable periods in 2017.

“Real GDP growth recorded in the sector in Q4 2018 stood at -3.85 percent, higher than the growth recorded in Q4 2017 by 2.07 percent points, but lower by –1.17 percent points relative to Q3 2018. Quarter-on-quarter, the sector grew by 6.91 percent in the fourth quarter 201,” the NBS report says.

L-R: Ibrahim Fasesan, Divisional Police Office (DPO), Iponri Police Station; Abdurrazaq Balogun, executive secretary, Lagos State Security Trust Fund (LSSTF); Jimoh Daramola, baale of Iponri Community, and Adetola Adegbayi, executive director, general insurance, Leadway Assurance, at the official handover of the new police vehicle donated to the Iponri Police Division of the Nigerian Police Force by Leadway Assurance in partnership with LSSTF in Lagos, yesterday.

Pic by Olawale Amoo

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Friday 15 February 2019

Post-election worries lift demand for consumables TEMITAYO AYETOTO

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s February 16 approaches, Nigerians are not only arming themselves with their Permanent Voters Card (PVC), they are also embarking on a preemptive spending on consumables to shield against post-elections crisis.

This defensive shopping has helped to push demand slightly higher, especially on roadside markets in Lagos. The general election, which will have representatives elected into senatorial and presidential offices, will span only for a day but higher increase in shopping had started building up on Wednesday, intensified on Thursday and is expected to peak by Friday, said a foodstuff seller at Mushin Market.

From food materials shopping to beverages, cooking fuels, people have been stocking their homes to absorb any shock, findings show. Also, alternative power generating sets have been undergoing servicing while petrol tanks and kegs were getting filled.

Nigerians appear to be leaning on the sentiment that the election outcomes could potentially trigger bickering from different quarters and might result in scarcity and hike in the prices of these items.

“I’ve been increasing my food stock since the beginning of this week and I’m going to buy more. I’m not sure about what might happen after the election but I wouldn’t want it to affect me,” said Ehis Odekhian, a worker.

While some do not see the incumbent government

calmly handing over power in the event of defeat, others have fears about the troubles that might arise from reactions of the opposition party to any unjustifiable clinching to power.

The problem of election violence is also top on the minds of electorate, as the breakout of chaos will discourage retailers from keeping their stores open during the period.

In 2015, the campaign environment was extremely competitive and tense according to the EU Election Observation Mission.

Incidents were reported in all parts of the country resulting in more than 160 people killed in electionrelated violence since early January.

Prior to the elections there was widespread anxiety about the elections holding and the risk of violence and the consequent threat to the stability. The largely peaceful outcome of the elections was partly attributed to the sustained efforts of the National Peace Committee (NPC) composed of eminent Nigerians and defeated former president Goodluck Jonathan handing over.

The NPC was formed to monitor compliance with the Abuja Accord, which was signed on 14 January by President Jonathan, General Buhari and 10 other presidential candidates and their parties to encourage peaceful elections and find mediated solutions to electoral disputes.

Similar tension that engulfed the air in 2015 seems to be revisiting this election and the last thing people want to do is to be short of food items.

GSK Nigeria reinstates support for asthma control in children with flixotide Ogun disburses N2.5bn severance allowances to 793 ex-political office holders

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SK Pharmaceuticals Nigeria has reiterated its commitment to improving asthma control among children, as the company unveiled Flixotide at the 2019 annual Paediatric Association of Nigeria Conference (PANCONF) in Ibadan, Oyo State.

Flixotide, which will be available soon in the country, is a low dose inhaled corticosteroid for prevention of asthma exacerbation in children from one year of age. The product reduces frequency of asthma symptoms and attacks in patients previously treated with bronchodilators alone or with other prophylactic therapy.

Speaking at the unveiling, laja Odunuga, medical director, GSK Nigeria, stated GSK desires to attend to the health needs of children with asthma and ensure they live a

healthy life.

“The concept is to make controller medication available for children who are less than four years, and the introduction of Flixotide is meant to fill a gap for the children that cannot benefit from other controller medications prescribed for the adult population,” Odunuga said.

Regarding the assessment of asthmatic conditions among children in Nigeria, Odunuga said, “I think we are getting better. We are probably not where we want to be but things are getting better in the sense that medications are now readily available.

“We are also trying to tackle the issue of stigmatisation, capacity building for Health care professionals such as doctors, nurses and pharmacists to ensure that the right things are done at the right time. For

the parents, we are advocating that they take up proper health-seeking behaviour.

“If we put all these parameters together, these are pointers that will reduce the mortality and morbidity associated with this disease.”

The 2019 edition of the annual PANCONF is the 50th in the series and the sixth International Scientific Conference with the theme “PAN at 50: Success, challenges and prospects.”

Congratulating the Association, Odunuga said, “The Paediatric Association of Nigeria remains one of the biggest supporters of issues relating to children in Nigeria. The body has become a voice that cannot be discountenanced.

It has remained a golden voice that over the years have lend its support to childhealth issues in Nigeria.”

RAZAQ AYINLA, Abeokuta

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overnor Ibikunle Amosun of Ogun State has disbursed over N2.5 billion as severance allowances to expolitical office holders who served at both local and state levels between 2007 and 2015.

Governor Amosun, who undertook the presentation of N1.2 billion cheques to the third and last batch of 793 beneficiaries in Abeokuta on Wednesday, said his administration began the first phase of payment in June 2014, while the second batch of payment was done in December 2016, for past political office holders at the state level.

He said, “Those two exercises concluded the payment for all Political Office Holders

who served at the State level since 2007, this final batch representing 793 beneficiaries is for Political Office Holders, who served at the local government level from 2007 till 2015.”

He emphasised that while his government had been consistent with the payment of allowances to political office holders, it had also been committed to the payment of gratuities and pensions to retired civil servants.

“Since the inception of our administration, we have kept faith with the payment of gratuities and pensions to retired Public Servants. It is important that, as we keep on paying retirement benefits to Civil Servants, we must also do the same for their political counterparts,” he said.

While saying that more legacy projects would be

commissioned even on his last day in office, he reassured that his administration would effect all outstanding payments before the expiration of his tenure.

Earlier in his welcome address, the Commissioner for Local Government and Chieftaincy Affairs, Jide Ojuko, described the gesture of the Governor as another demonstration of his commitment towards the welfare of ex-political office holders in spite of paucity of funds against several competing demands for the resources of the state.

“I cannot but appreciate sincerely our people-oriented governor who has not only been magnanimous to political office holders while in office, but also after they have served meritoriously,” Ojuko stated.

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Trump’s quest to undermine multilateral development banks Dan Steinbock

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ecently, the White House has been pushing its America First stance in the World Trade Organization (WTO) by controversial appeals to a “national security exception.” In response to the Trump tariffs, several WTO members have brought dispute settlement cases against the U.S. World Bank is next in the firing line. Reportedly, the White House will announce David Malpass as the nominee for President of the World Bank, after Jim Yong Kim’s resignation well before the end of his five-year term in 2022.

In the 2016 election, Malpass served as Trump’s economic advisor.

A year later he was appointed Undersecretary for International Affairs in the U.S. Department of the Treasury.

But he is an odd choice to head the World Bank - a bit like selecting a coal CEO to head the struggle against climate change.

An ‘America First’ World Bank Like U.S. Representative of Trade Robert Lighthizer, Malpass began his political career in the 1980s Reagan administration seeking to contain the rise of Japan through the Section 301 of the 1974 Trade Act; the same unilateral legislation Trump is exploiting against China in the current trade dispute.

During his 15 years as chief economist at Bear Stearns, Malpass was not known for his economic foresight. A year before the global crisis, he wrote that “housing- and debt-market corrections will probably add to the length of the U.S. economic expansion.” And amidst lingering crisis, he urged for higher interest rates.

During his tenure as Under Sec-

retary of the Treasury for International Affairs, Malpass has taken an aggressive position against China.

In early 2018, he slammed China’s “non-market behavior” advocating stronger responses. When Trump tariff wars began, some 20 career staff quit Malpass’s unit in less than a year opposing the administration’s unilateral trade policies and Malpass’s poor leadership style.

To Malpass, the World Bank is a “giant sprawl” of international organizations that create “mountains of debt without solving problems.” He promotes a new “debt-transparency initiative” that would shed more light on the international liabilities of the world’s governments. Such an initiative would not target America’s $22 trillion pile of sovereign debt, but China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

Should he walk the talk, that could cause a fatal rift in World Bank.

As of November 2018, the largest recipients of World Bank loans were India ($859 million in 2018) and China ($370 million in 2018). Malpass could subject China and its loans into a politicized scrutiny, effectively extending U.S. investment reviews through the Bank. In that view, his nomination has done nothing to diminish China’s concerns that the existing international institutions will not accommodate it.

Toward ‘America First’ IMF Since the Bretton Woods, the president of the World Bank has been an American, while the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has been led by a European. Both institutions are located in Washington, D.C. and work closely with each other, as international extensions of the U.S. Department of the Treasury - as critics contend.

Amid the 2008 crisis fall, IMF chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn managed to achieve G20 cooperation that contained the global free-fall.

In exchange, advanced economies pledged commitment to global governance reforms in multilateral development banks. Yet, those reforms were ignored after Strauss-Kahn was replaced with French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde. As global

managing partner of U.S.-headquartered Baker & McKenzie, Lagarde lived full-time in Chicago until 2005.

Through the nomination process, she was subject of a legal investigation over alleged abuse of power in the “Tapie Affair.” In 2016, a French court found her guilty of negligence, but did not impose a penalty. That’s how Lagarde was re-appointed for another five-year term at IMF. IMF’s economic stance is shifting toward Washington as well. Recently, Lagarde appointed Gina Gopinath as the IMF Chief Economist to succeed Maurice Obstfeld. Gopinath is a veteran U.S. economist and co-director at National Bureau of Economic Research. In her most recent work, she has been an outspoken advocate of the U.S. dollar whose dominance she expects to continue largely undisturbed. She has cooperated with former IMF Economic Counselor Kenneth Rogoff, who has for years criticized China’s debt - as opposed to U.S. debt - as a global risk.

Since 2011, BRICS economies (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) have stressed that the selection of the IMF chief on the basis of nationality undermines its international legitimacy. In a 2015 interview, even Jim Yong Kim predicted that “you will never again see an IMF or a World Bank election without very strong contention, coming especially from the developing world.”

Despite the 2010 cosmetic reforms, advanced economies continue to dominate World Bank voting shares over emerging economies. Today, the seven major advanced economies account for 45% and the largest seven emerging economies almost 30% of the world economy. Nevertheless, advanced countries still control nearly 40% of World Bank voting shares, as opposed to only 9 to 15% by emerging economies.

There is a gap between the economic share of emerging economies and their voice in the international community. And the gap is deepening.

Since emerging economies are growing relatively faster, their economic share will exceed that of advanced economies within a decade or two.

‘

Since the Bretton Woods, the president of the World Bank has been an American, while the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has been led by a European

From reforms to retrenchment Since the early 2010s, China has been promoting the huge, multidecade Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which seeks to energize industrialization and modernization in many large emerging and developing economies.

The Obama administration took a skeptical view of the initiative, which the Trump administration has branded as a “national security risk” to America.

In October 2013, China proposed creating a new multilateral development bank, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). In the Obama era, the White House stayed out of the AIIB and tried - but failed - to prevent its partners and allies from joining the Bank.

A year later, Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa launched the New Development Bank (NDB) to accelerate lending on infrastructure projects. The Obama White House sought to marginalize it, while the Trump administration sees cooperative activities with “potential Eurasian hegemons” as a national security risk.

As the World Bank may face a divisive political struggle, U.S. interests are growing more prominent at the IMF, while the WTO has been targeted by trade hawks. Attempts by emerging and developing economies to help themselves are shunned as security threats to American interests. Meanwhile, the West’s multilateral development banks are bailing out rich European economies, targeting poorer ones and sanctioning those that oppose Washington’s unilateralism.

The gap between the multipolar 21st century world economy and aging West, which created its prosperity through colonial plunder in the 19th century, is progressively deepening.

That serves neither America’s nor emerging powers’ long-term interests.

•The original commentary was published by China-US Focus on February 11, 2019 Dr. Dan Steinbock is the founder of Difference Group and has served at the India, China and America Institute (US), Shanghai Institute for International Studies (China) and the EU Center (Singapore). For more, see http://www.differencegroup.net/

2019 general polls: Can Nigerians bank on INEC assurances of credible polls?

Okechukwu Keshi Ukegbu

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ew days before Nigerians go to polls to elect their president and national legislators, there is every indication that millions of Nigerians may be disenfranchised if the electoral umpire, Independent National Electoral Commission (NEC) does not live up to its bidding .Despite intensive struggles millions of voters are yet this access this indispensable material. This unfortunate development has cast doubts in the minds of analysts and political observers whether INEC’s persistent assurances of credible polls are feasible.

Availability of voters card is the basic step that the commission should take to allay the fears of the public that the upcoming polls

may go the way of preceding polls in the country which were characterized by massive rigging and other electoral malpractices.

Periodically, the commission conducts Voters Registration Exercise for some reasons which include capturing those who were below 18 years when the last polls were conducted, transferring the PVCs of those who have relocated from their base, replacing those PVCs that were damaged or lost, among other reasons.

The current exercise began sometime in 2017 , an ample time for INEC to have carried out a very successful exercise, but the commission in its characteristic manner is seriously found wanting almost two years after.

The complaints are pouring in torrents as Nigerians relive their ordeals in the hands of INEC. Some voters who were registered at the nascent period of the exercise are yet to access their cards despite numerous visits to the various local government offices of INEC which are far flung from the people.

The commission’s local government offices were a Mecca of sort recently for voters who thronged those offices on daily basis to secure the cards to no avail. It was one flimsy excuse or the other ranging from the excuse that those in charge of particular wards were not on seat to the excuse that PVCs covering some periods were not printed, even at the last minute.

It took intensive pressure for INEC to move the registration closer to the people by moving from the local government headquarters to the wards. This was as a result of repeated calls after voters were unable to travel long distances to access their local government headquarters. The fact that majority of the citizenry in the developing world live in the rural communities than urban centres could have been adequately captured in the commission’s arrangement to ensure success of the exercise. More worrisome is that even when the registration centres were decentralized, the exercise was carried in such

shoddy manner that increased the doubts in the minds of Nigerians whether INEC will surmount the more technical and complex functions that characterise the polls such as capturing the voters through the card reading process.

Besides, the commission has demonstrated huge communication deficiency. Imagine on the night of the February 8 deadline for PVC collection, Nigerians were still receiving messages via SMS urging them to go and collect their PVC. One would have expected the commission to adopt the traditional modes of communication more since their target audience are highly concentrated in the rural communities.

INEC should remedy its image by addressing the PVC issue. This will ensure that every eligible voter is availed their voters card. If not the allegations leveled against the commission of registering under age Nigerians and channelling the PVCs to unauthorized individuals will stick.

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Brand addiction: Creating that caffeine for your life and business

EIZU UWAOMA

C

affeine refers to an addictive essential of certain kind of drugs. In this context, it connotes an ingredient that gets customers or even employees (who I’d like to define as your first level of customers) addicted to you and your business. It is that core in your offering, perhaps as a core value, USP, or drive that makes customers not get enough.

Look around you, it seems like we are all addicted to something, I call it ‘caffeine’ in different forms.

I mean, if caffeine is a stimulant, an ingredient that gets people excited, intoxicated and addicted as it is found in coke, coffee and in large quantity in most hard drugs, imagine having such elements for your brand. It’s a different kind of caffeine that gets people to sleep weekly in vigil to kill ‘the undying enemy’, I’ve watched people sow their last seeds as offerings to already rich religious leaders, to some it’s sex or love that gets them running back to their ex, maybe for you it gets you constantly stuck on social network, or during work hours. I’ve seen executives queue in suits for hours for “Iya Basira’s” beans, under the Stadium Bridge in Surulere, or for Amala at the White House in

Yaba, or “Ghana High” in Onikan for Jollof. For some of our politicians who dig pits and have empty apartments just to steal and store the loots, now that’s greed with money as their own caffeine. Knowing when to stop is key and anything you can’t get enough of, I call it “caffeine”.

It’s the difference between people who just buy phones and people who sell their kidney and use the proceeds to stay in queues for hours to buy an iPhone in America, the difference between a bottle of coke and any other soft drink, any coffee and Nescafe, a car and a Mercedes Benz. The list goes on.

In business you need to create your own caffeine at what you do. It will create loyalty for you.

It’s what you do that people can’t get enough of. In business it’s called Unique Selling Point (USP), I call it caffeine!

Here are a few drops of ‘caffeine’ for your consumption: 1. Domino’s Pizza: “You get fresh, hot pizza delivered to your door in 30 minutes or it’s delivered for free.”

2. FedEx:”Your parcels absolutely get there overnight.”

3. M&M’s Chocolate: It only “Melts in your mouth, not on your hand.”

4. Saddleback Leather: “They’ll fight over it when you’re dead.”

5. TOMS Shoes: They give a new pair of shoes to a child in need for every pair you purchase.

6. Hexavia and HBC: for us at Hexavia, since the differences between you now and 10 years ahead are the people you meet and things you’d know, we promise to always supply you both for a lifetime once you’re a client to us. It is summed up as further together. We promise to always Go Further Ahead

with you. Now that’s our caffeine!

Make your company’s unique position and offering in the marketplace as addictive and present as caffeine. It is an often overlooked but very important element of creating a business that customers and your other stakeholders love.

A strong unique selling proposition lets you to stand apart from competitors. It makes them come back for more. It is the differential.

Besides price wars, cost leadership and niche focusing, differentiation is one of the most important strategic and tactical activities in which companies must constantly engage to stay most relevant.

1. Unique – It clearly sets you apart from your competition, positioning you the more logical choice.

2. Selling – It persuades another to exchange money for a product or service.

3. Proposition – It is a proposal or offer suggested for acceptance.

The force that drives your business and sales success Your USP is the force that drives your business and success. It can also be used as a “branding” tool that deploys strategy with every tactical marketing effort you use such as an ad, a postcard, or web site. This allows you to build a lasting reputation while you’re making sales. The ultimate goal of your USP and marketing is to have people say to you… “Oh, yes I’ve heard of you. You’re the company who…” – And then respond by requesting more information or purchasing.

Creating a unique selling proposition that works When it comes to developing a unique point of difference for your

‘

Your USP needs to be so compelling that it can be used as a headline that sells your product or service

business, it’s impossible to give onesize-fits-all advice. That said there are certainly some best practices that work across marketplaces and that any business owner can apply to make their unique selling proposition worthwhile.

Here’s a simple exercise to help you identify your USP: Gather a few people from your team, or your inner circle or mastermind group; people who have in depth understanding about your business.

Put yourselves in the shoes of others in your industry, especially your prospective customers.

Pinpoint the types of things these others might say about the products, services and companies in your industry. Don’t hold back – include stereotypes and globalism – sometimes even funny ones will help.

Make a long list.

Step back into your own shoes.

Now, read your list. What makes YOU or your company different?

Select the most compelling ones that you honestly come by and incorporate them into your marketing program.

Ways to use these USPs: Sound-bites or elevator speeches Marketing messages Brochures Value Propositions Advertising Press Releases Proposals Note: The rest of this article continues in the online edition of Business Day @https://businessday.ng Uwaoma is a start-up, corporate restructuring and strategy consultant. He writes via contacteizu@gmail.com

Buhari has laid a solid economic foundation Ike Nwawelugo

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or all the presidential candidates in this week’s elections, it is the time to convince the voters of what they will do if elected. But for MuhammaduBuhari, President and presidential aspirant, it is also a time to tell the electorate what he has done since May 2015 when they gave him the exalted position. And he has a lot to say.

The economic wellbeing of the citizenry is one of the principal functions of the state and it is perhaps the first plank on which any government is judged. However well a government has done for the social welfare of the people, it would still be adjudged a failure if the economic welfare of the people is in a poor state.

With crude oil prices at less than half of its average for the preceding 24 months, MuhammaduBuharihad his work cut out when he swept into office with his All Progressives Congress (APC) party in May 2015. And nearly four years later, he can beat his chest and announce that he has laid a solid foundation for the Nigerian economy.

Macroeconomic stability For starters, the macroeconomic indices are much better than they have been for years.

Foreign reserves hit a five-year high of US$48 billion in April 2018, up from US$23 billion in 2015 when this government came in. At US$43 billion presently, it provides very comfortable import cover.

The country was steered out of the reces-

sion into which it was driven by oil price shocks in 2016, within five quarters, and is on the upward swing again. This speedy recovery iswell ahead of contemporaries like South Africa and Brazil which went the same road at about the same time and are still stuck there.

Foreign exchange which had hit a high of N525/US$ at the bureau de change at the height of the recession, has since stabilized at about N360/US$. Inflation which had risen to a high of 18.7% amidst the recession has since started heading towards the single unit, hitting 11.1% in July 2018 before being driven a bit higher to 11.25 at the end of the year by food prices.

Perhaps the greatest testament to the macro-economic stability that the Buhari government has achieved, is gleaned from the unusual resilience that the stock market is showing right into the election week. Right through the week preceding the elections, the bulls remained on rampage! Most unusual!

The Nigerian economy had been running on four-year cycles coinciding with the elections. It was a system well-known to institutional investors, especially foreign investors.

And it had ensured constant rebooting without growth for Nigeria.

Speaking last week, Canada-based investment analyst, Dr Pat Okaro, explained how the system worked and how it is playing out this time: “In Africa or the developing world, foreign investors sell off before any presidential election to avoid heightened risks of anarchy and breakout of violence post-election. And so, if you’re into the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE), you’ll notice that the market crashed every four years.

“Now, enter Acting President Osinbajo who

set up a special forex window for foreign investors. This window guarantees them to take out their dollars at the same rate they brought them in. So that removes the panic because in every election cycle when they sell off, not only does the stock market crash, but the naira also crashes as a result of oversupply. So with this guarantee, the foreigners are a bit relaxed.

“At this time in the last election cycle, GT Bank was N17. Today, it is N33.50. At this time in the last election cycle, Zenith Bank was N17.

Today, it is N22.50. Some of us have keyed into this predictable market response pre-election and have played it successfully in the last election cycles…this time, the returns obviously won’t be as usual” Laying a solid foundation For decades, successive Nigerian governments had chanted the mantra of laying a solid foundation for the economy only to leave it same or worse than they met it. It was as if the nation was jinxed and moored to the shores of under-development while we watched other nations that started with us sail over to the prosperous shores. Thankfully, Buhari has finally got the job done, and Nigeria has set sail towards real economic development.

With about half the population of the nation living below the poverty line, President Buhari knew that he had to start with food. A hungry man is an angry man, we say. He knew that platitudes and exhortations would not do.

The previous government knew also that the population had to eat before any other thing too. But it had chosen the easy way – importation. The bill of the top four food imports – rice, wheat, fish and sugar - amounted to N1.4 trillion per annum. This was more than 30% of the national budget!

This was clearly unwise and unsustain-

Ojo is with Four Points Communications Ltd.

able. The viable way out was to produce what Nigerians eat, at home. It was a tough task.

But Buhari was ready. Feeding the nation with homegrown food required solid planning and dedicated execution. And he was ready.

With a carefully selected hands-on agricultural technocrat, AuduOgbeh, serving as his minister of agriculture, Buhari set out to touch Nigerian agriculture like it had never been touched before. And he has not only succeeded in terms of output, but has set agriculture on a trajectory of quantum leaps.

The anchor borrowers programme Central to President Buhari’s agricultural drive is his Anchor Borrowers Programme (ABP) which is designed as a foolproof system of credit delivery to targeted farmers.

It had to be so, given the failure of the agricultural credit delivery schemes of the previous governments. These schemes had either by deliberate fraudulent design or shoddy implementation, ended up delivering credit to politicians and their hangers-on who had no farms.

Conceptualised as a micro-credit scheme and targeted at Nigerian small scale farmers, President MuhammaduBuhari personally launched the Anchor Borrowers Programme (ABP) on November 17, 2015 in Kebbi State.

Mindful of the failures of other programmes under previous governments, the Buhari government deployed modern technology in the form of biometric data of real farmers for the running of the ABP. In this way, the fund gets into the hands of the persons for whom they are intended, without fail.

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Why is the CBN not floating the Naira UCHE UWALEKE

I

n an apparent reaction to a widely reported statement

by Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, the presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party, to the effect that he would get the Central Bank to float the naira if elected into office, the CBN Governor, Mr. Godwin Emefiele had, during a press briefing following the meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee in January, warned that doing so would plunge the economy into crisis. He was quoted as saying that “the MPC reviewed it and concluded that it would be wrong. It is as good as saying that we should go back to the era of Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) in Nigeria. The implication can better be imagined. It will certainly lead to capital flight, lead to massive depreciation of the currency and ultimately to currency crisis in Nigeria and I think we should all know that it is a road to perdition to ever go in that direction”.

On this overarching issue of ensuring a single market-determined exchange rate, Mr Abubakar has good company in the International

Monetary Fund. In March 2018, the Executive Board of the IMF concluded the Article IV Consultation with Nigeria and recommended, among others, the removal of ‘distortions in the foreign exchange market, which should be unified and contribute to strengthening reserve buffers’. Indeed, proponents of naira float argue that by implementing a complete float, the true value of the naira will emerge leading to the convergence of the official and parallel market rates. A unified exchange rate, which is one attribute of a well functioning forex market, finds theoretical support in its ability to respond to market forces, reduce market distortions and encourage foreign investments in the long run.

Unfortunately, Nigeria has a peculiar case: the interplay of market forces in the forex market, lopsided in favour of demand, can only result in a very high equilibrium price. Even if currency floating solves the problem of multiple pricing and arbitrage; it does not address the liquidity challenge. According to the recently published CBN Q4 2018 Economic Report, ‘Foreign exchange inflow and outflow through the CBN amounted to US$14.51 billion and US$14.60 billion respectively, resulting in a net outflow of US$0.09 billion’. Because the country imports fuel, raw materials, food and virtually everything, commodity prices will hit the roofs from pass-through effect of high exchange rate and the CBN will be compelled to further tighten monetary policy.

Granted that government revenue will increase from the naira value of oil ex-

ports, but the cost of servicing government’s huge domestic debt will also surge following increased yields on government securities. What is more, a higher exchange rate resulting from naira float will also make the servicing of foreign debts more expensive.

Further, huge sums will be needed to implement capital projects contained in the 2019 budget which is dollardependent. A unified exchange rate is capable of increasing the pump price of fuel and accelerating inflation. The oil subsidy (NNPC under-recovery) provision in the 2019 budget is US$1 billion or N305 billion. So, a naira float will not only increase the cost of fuel subsidy but also widen the fiscal deficit in the 2019 budget. Clearly, a reluctance to float the naira, on the part of the CBN, is largely informed by these considerations as well as by the pursuit of the primary objectives of exchange rate policy in Nigeria which are ‘to preserve the value of the domestic currency, maintain a favourable external reserves position and ensure external balance without compromising the need for internal balance and the overall goal of macroeconomic stability’.

Drawing from the experiences of other countries, the introduction of a currency float in an import-oriented economy comes with negative consequences. A case in point is the IMF-induced currency float in Egypt.

In November 2016, the government of President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi yielded to pressure from the IMF to float the Egyptian pound as pre-condition for accessing a US$12 billion three-year loan. Expectedly after receiving the

‘

Drawing from the experiences of other countries, the introduction of a currency float in an importoriented economy comes with negative consequences

first tranche, Egypt’s foreign reserves jumped to US$23.1 billion at the end of November 2016 from US$19.1 billion a month earlier according to the Central Bank of Egypt. Although, the gap between the official and parallel market rates narrowed considerably, it was at a very high price: from a pegged exchange rate that had the Egyptian pound officially trading at EGP8.8 to the dollar, the Egyptian pound bled so much that a few days after its floatation, it officially traded at EGP17.8 per dollar compared to EGP17.98 per dollar in the parallel market. A report

by Bloomberg named the Egyptian pound as Africa’s worst performing currency in 2016 chiefly because ‘the nation took the dramatic step of allowing it to trade freely in an attempt to stabilise an economy struggling with a dollar shortage’.

That was not all. The floatation brought in its wake high inflation and interest rates. According to the Central Bank of Egypt, the Consumer Price Index reported by the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics (CAPMAS) registered an annual increase of 19.43 per cent in November, compared to 13.56 per cent before the currency float in October, the highest annual inflation rate in nearly a decade.

Note: The rest of this article continues in the online edition of Business Day @https://businessday.ng Uche Uwaleke of Nasarawa State University Keffi is Nigeria’s first Professor of Capital Market and the President of the Association of Capital Market Academics of Nigeria

The vision

Olamide Balogun

T

wo weeks ago we talked about the importance of an organizational chart to an organization that will succeed.

I also said how many organisations don’t have this chart which is equivalent to a human being not having a backbone .

Before I continue I must congratulate us as a nation that our Vice President and his crew were not injured in the helicopter crash. He is part of the workforce of this nation and any harm to him will definitely harm the workings of the machinery of government. All workforce have to be protected and celebrations are in order when they escape any kind of harm.

Many organisations don’t value their people enough to care about their welfare. If you lose a member of your workforce, where to tragedy or indeed anything the organization will always suffer the consequences.

I believe I jumped the gun a fortnight ago in talking about an organizational chart because there is something that is not only crucial to the divine health and motivation of the workforce but that also comes before an organisational chart and that is the vision of the company.

Where there is no vision, the people cast off restraint. (This is what the bible says). A re-

straint is like a boundary, in this case, let us say a boundary of good behaviour, good attitude, good work ethics and profitability.

A boundary hedges in under, at the sides and above a thing. If the boundary is removed everything spills everywhere outside its compartments. A company cannot achieve anything let alone what it was set up for without a vision. The energy and resources will flow in all directions and the company will eventually perish.

Crafting a vision is the ability to think about, or plan the future with imagination and wisdom. So a vision involves, thinking, imagining and a plan. It is a mental image of what the future will look like.

To come up with this, there has to be foresight, insight and hind site. Foresight is looking far off allowing one to know what is in the future. It is like using a telescope that allows one to see far off. Five, ten, fifteen years and more into the future.

Insight is like looking through a microscope to allow one to see in much detail all that is involved. It is like looking under a microscope you see much detail.

Hindsight is like looking through a rear view mirror which allows you to see behind you. This prevents accidents and mistakes while foresight takes you forward.

Without a vision, if you have all the money, all connections and countless other resources, it will all amount to nothing. A company without a vision is a company without a future and without a future, the company will always return to its past. We all know that the past cannot survive in these current times, let alone the future. When you are standing still for any length of time you are not only stagnant but you are regressing.

Without a vision, the company will remain in their comfort zone. We all know that nothing happens in the comfort zone. A vision is a lifeline for any organization ensuring it does not drown in its comfort zone.

I heard the story of three cleaners at NASA. When the first one was asked what he was doing, he said he was cleaning a floor. When the second one was asked, he said he was cleaning a room. When the third was asked, he said he was putting a man on the moon. Each one was telling the truth but only the third one had caught the vision. For the first two, they were just doing an activity which can clearly not sustain their interest. Only the third man will not stop until he sees the vision become a reality.

Without a vision, working becomes difficult, monotonous and boring. The and employees become discouraged and despondent and they can’t move the organization forward.

A true vision will contrast present realities of hardship and impossibilities. Being futuristic it is different from current realities and looks more inviting.

Vision will challenge the present comfort zone, current ease and lethargy. Without vision, the organization and people take a line of least resistance and try to avoid discomfort. Vision will make a timid person bold, a spender into an investor, a reckless person into a tactical person and finally make a happy go lucky person into a serious person.

A vision will tell you how to spend and invest in your resources. What resources to focus on and what resources to discard.

A vision is an incubator of new ideas. Conceives new opportunities. The vision will make a way in uncharted territory, connecting you to resources, human and otherwise. If you know what you are looking for you will recognize it

when you see it.

I will not tell you what your vision should be exactly but what the vision has to be able to do for you. Not only must the business owners and senior management craft a vision, but they must also do it in such a way that all the other members of the organization buy into it. If you can’t sell your vision, it will not work for you.

You must write the vision for all to see in the fewest number of words. (The fewer the words convinces all looking at it, understand that you know what you are talking about. This helps people to commit to the written vision.

The organization must carry their people along or the people will cast off restraint and the organization will fall despite and in spite of good machinery and plenty of money.

The vision must be broken into manageable bites. For example, a twenty-year vision should be broken down into five yearly and indeed a yearly plan. This forms the strategic plan of the organization and enables further understanding. Action planning with a time frame must come out of Visioning.

When this has been done then the organizational chart and everything else required for Human Resource management will cascade from this.

All this will help in deciding what kind of people both in terms of skills and also behaviour and attitude that will be best suited to deliver on the goals of the organization.

Have another great weekend and try personal visioning this weekend. Just like every organization needs a backbone so does every individual need a vision.

Balogun is the founder of Box & Cedar Ltd a boutique Recruitment and HR Consulting firm Www.boxandcedar.com

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Friday 15 February 2019

As Nigerians decide

B

eginning tomorrow, Nigerians will head to the polls to elect political leaders for another four years. Election is an important and sacred duty thrust on citizens by the democratic system of government on the premise that over their affairs, the citizens should be sovereign. This duty must be discharged with the utmost care that it should always be clear to those who prefer other systems of government that democracy remains the best system of government invented by man for the organisation of society.

For us in Nigeria, the fight and journey towards entrenching the democratic system of government was not an easy one. Although the colonial masters bequeathed a democratic system of government to Nigeria at independence in 1960, some sections of the military have always felt the people are not qualified or well equipped to decides

those to govern them. Therefore, they have often intervened to disrupt the political process thereby making it difficult for the country to entrench the democratic system as a way of life. Thankfully, after their misadventures and failures in government, they have come to accept that they cannot arrogate to themselves the right to decide who governs a society.

Consequently, since 1999, they have remained in the barracks to perform their constitutional roles and allowed the democratic process to grow and evolve, albeit in a slow and sometimes chaotic manner.

At this 20th anniversary of our return to democratic governance, we believe we have learnt many lessons over the years and we should now be in a better position to begin to internalise the practices and dictates of democracy and entrench it as a permanent system of government in our country. We have witnessed the first peaceful transition from one democratic administration to another. We

have also witnessed the first peaceful alternation of power from one political party and government to another. These are necessary stages for the consolidation of democracy.

This election provides Nigerians with another opportunity to further deepen Nigeria’s democratic culture. Therefore, we must approach it with all the seriousness it deserves. We expect the electoral empire, in this case, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to be truly independent and impartial, not only in name, but in deed. The electoral empire must ensure that there are no mistakes and that it conducts near flawless elections that would be adjudged free, fair, transparent and credible by all citizens and our international partners.

Political parties and politicians, on their part, must learn to internalise the rules of the game and accept outcomes of credible elections. The people, above all, must learn to vote their conscience and choices, which under normal circum-

stances, should progressively reflect in the quality of leaders being elected. That way, political parties and politicians will learn the important lesson that the people are in reality sovereign and will therefore be accountable to them. Although we must state also that full government accountability to the electorate is not achieved only by voting, but also by constantly engaging, interacting, and monitoring the activities of elected representatives to ensure that they discharge only the mandate handed to them at the ballot box.

Of course, achieving accountability also presupposes that the voters are enlightened and are not susceptible to inducement.

We also call on security agents to discharge their duties of providing security to citizens and electoral officials credibly and to eschew any temptations to take sides or accept unpopular orders from unscrupulous politicians that want to disrupt the elections.

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Friday 15 February 2019

13

CITYFile

Niger: Police nab 8 for armed robbery, kidnapping

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he police in Niger State have arrested eight suspects over alleged kidnapping and armed robbery in different of part of the state.

Spokesperson of the police in Niger, Mhammadou Abubakar, disclosed this in Minna. Abubakar said that on January 13, police operatives attached to Lapai division arrested four suspects for kidnapping one Sani Dukuma of Fota village Lapai local government area, who later escaped from the kidnappers.

According to him, investigation revealed that on 12th January, 2019 the suspects kidnapped the father of the victim and collected N1.5 million as ransom before he was released.

“Suspects confessed to the crime, and the case was charged to court.

“Similarly, on 15th January, information was received that some unknown kidnappers attacked some Fulani men along Rafin Daji village of Lapai local government area.

“Three persons were kidnapped while grazing with their cattle at Zungeru town of Wushishi local government area to unknown location and demanded N3 million as ransom.

“On receipt of the information a team of policemen attached to special anti-robbery squad Minna swung into action, engaged the kidnappers in a gun duel, which lasted for several hours.

“The victims were rescued unhurt while suspects fled to the bush with bullet wound, abandoning one AK47 rifle with empty magazine.”

FRSC trains 2,000 for election duties in Oyo

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he Federal Road Safety Commission (FRSC) in Oyo State has trained 2,000 personnel for the general elections.

At the training session, the sector commander of the FRSC in the state, Cecilia Alao, said the initiative would make the officers to be adequately prepared for what was expected of them during the general elections.

Alao urged the officers to ensure smooth movement of officials of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and election materials.

“We have certified INEC vehicles and are in the process of certifying NURTW vehicles that INEC will use in moving election materials because we do not want a situation where a vehicle will break down when transporting election materials.

“With this training, the officers have been educated not to compromise and not go beyond its specified role and I am confident FRSC will not disappoint Nigerians,’’ Alao said.

She said that 2,000 personnel of the corps would be deployed to complement other security agencies that would be at the polling units on election day.

Alao, however, warned voters that would be voting in distant locations to go a day ahead, saying there would be restriction on movement on the day.

In his lecture, the representative of INEC in the state Michael Alabi, said FRSC and other security agencies have major roles to play in conducting free and credible polls.

Alabi urged them to be professional in discharging their duties and not to allow any politician to use them for selfish gains.

He also urged the FRSC to work in synergy with other security agencies and ensure the security of INEC staff and materials as well as the electorate.

Also speaking, the representative of the police in the state, Joseph Eribo, urged security agents to shun anything that would jeopardise their career.

“Politics will come and go, don’t do anything you know you cannot account for. The goal of the security agencies is to have a peaceful election in Nigeria and we will do everything to ensure the election is peaceful,’’ Eribo, the area commander of Agodi division, said.

Suspected oil thieves being paraded by officials of Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps at Rivers State Command in Port Harcourt. NAN

Lagos-Badagry Expressway: FG to seek partnership with private sector ... as Akran of Badagry decries neglect of area JOSHUA BASSEY

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ice President Yemi Osinbajo says the Federal Government is working with Lagos State government towards securing the buy-in of the private sector in the reconstruction of collapsed LagosBadagry Expressway.

Recall that the Federal Executive Council (FEC) in October 2018 claimed to have awarded contract for the repair of the expressway, from Agbara-Badagry through to the Seme border. However, checks on Wednesday showed an expressway in a terrible state of disrepair, as nothing has been done since the purported contract award.

The Lagos State government in 2009 took the initiative to expand the four-lane expressway into ten, starting from the Eric Moore-Iganmu end. But the construction work which has been ongoing for about ten years has been stalled while the contractor, CCECC which handled the section stretching from Mile 2 to Okokomaiko, had long vacated the road, leaving this section in a total mess.

Osinbajo, who was at the palace of the Akran of Badagry, Aholu Menu-Toyi 1, to canvass for votes ahead of tomorrow’s presidential election, said the involvement of the private sector would fast-track the

construction of the road.

“The contract for the project has been awarded; it is only to ensure that adequate finance is given to the contractor.

“We are also working on the possibility of private sector involvement in the project because if it is government alone, it will slow down the project.

“So, we are working with the Lagos State Government to see how to put all resources together to do it quickly.

“It is a very useful commercial road, it is also attractive for the private sector to invest in,’’ Osinbajo said.

On the Badagry Deep Seaport project, the vice-president said that the project had gone very far.

According to him, the most important thing about the project is that it is not a government project.

“The Federal Government has already given approval to the private sector companies who are promoting and building it.

“The role of the government is to grant necessary approvals and those approvals have been granted.

“So, what we are waiting for is for the private sector to put together the resources to complete the project.

“It is a big project and it is going to be one of the biggest port in Africa,’’ Osinbajo said.

The Badagry monarch urged the Federal

Government to fast-track the completion of the Lagos/Badagry/Seme Expressway.

According to the Akran, the international road is a major gateway to other West African countries.

“Kindly consider and fast-track the planned establishment and construction of Badagry Deep Seaport project that has been on the drawing board for about five years.

“Since Badagry has joined the league of oil producing communities in Nigeria, we shall be happy if you encourage the Lagos State Government to send, as a matter of urgency, the bill to domesticate the Niger Delta Development Commission Act as amended in 2017 to the State House of Assembly for ratification.

“We want provision of infrastructure which includes electricity, schools, health centres and pipe-borne water in Seme border town,’’ the Akran said.

He also urged the Federal Government to upgrade facilities at the Administrative Staff College of Nigeria (ASCON) and provide employment for its teeming youths in federal government ministries, departments and agencies.

“We will be glad if the government will consider and approve the establishment of a Federal Polytechnic or its equivalent in our community,’’ the Akran said.

Plateau to organise thanksgiving party for returning IDPs

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lateau government says it will organise a thanksgiving party for Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs), in their ancestral homes, when they fully return.

The state governor, Simon Lalong stated this in Jos, at the flag-off of the distribution of building materials procured by the state government, for the returning IDPs. The governor said he was concerned that the people were forced out of their homes and was ready to assist them to

return home. “God will not allow us to continue to keep our people in IDPs camps. Some have since returned home while others are still returning. When all of them are back, we will hold a thanksgiving there,” Lalong said on Wednesday.

The governor stated that the building materials were to aid the returning IDPs reconstruct their homes, adding that “the Federal Government is working towards resettling the people, but the state cannot continue to wait while they suffer,”

he said.

Francis Chong, chairman of IDPs in Plateau, disclosed that 180 bundles of zinc, 80 bags of three inches nails and 80 bags of four inches nails had been received.

Also delivered to the IDPs, he said, were 150 bags of cement, 500 bags of zinc nails, 600 pieces of 2×3 wood, among others. The materials are to be shared among four communities of Buku, Ngwar, Tissan and Kura Berom.

14 BUSINESS DAY

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Friday 15 February 2019

MoneyInsight Contactless cards can revolutionize payments in Nigeria Adedeji Olowe (Guest Writer)

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he ease and speed of a payment method are directly proportional to its adoption. Although payment with cards has been growing at about 100 per cent CAGR over the last three years, all you need to do is stand behind that smug, self-entitled millennial stamping her feet while waiting for a purchase to finish to know that paying with debit cards at POS terminal would never be mainstream for everyday payments.

The UK was at the same junction a few years ago although using your card for payments was significantly faster. Then things changed when banks allowed regular debit and credit cards to be used to tap-in and out on buses, trains, and trams.

Contactless transactions exploded.

You only need to see contactless payments in action for you to be smitten.

You will ask yourself just one question: why have we suffered this long?

When properly configured, contactless payments go through in less than 1 second, just the same time it takes to touch the card to the reader, and that’s it.

How do contactless cards work?

Not so simple. On a contactless card, the plastic has a small antenna that allows it to wirelessly transmit payments information from the chip on the card to the card reader. When you touch your card against the reader, they both talk to each other.

Contactless can work in both online mode (where transactions are sent to the bank for authorization) and offline mode (where the bank gives some leeway to allow payments to be approved by the chip on the card) For security reasons, banks, governed by national standards set certain limits. For example, the bank will determine the number of times you can do touch-and-go before you

can use your card for online payments (where you have to input your PIN). Also, there is also a maximum amount you can do at a time. You can read about the limits for different countries here.

Despite the benefits of contactless, this is yet to catch on in Nigeria.

Nevertheless, this has not stopped by banks from taking the bull by the horn. Over the last three years, United Bank for Africa has been giving out contactless cards by default to all customers. But with no places to use them, it has been an exercise in futility.

The challenges to using contactless in Nigeria are not as many as I

previously thought though they are not trivial.

There are no playbooks for contactless payments in Nigeria. In other countries, the regulators always specify the rules that govern payments, including contactless. We have myriad of regulations for payments in Nigeria, but none is looking at how contactless should work Risk acceptance in Nigeria is also a challenge. Abroad, banks trust that transactions done in offline mode will always be paid by the customers. And when cards are stolen, the banks will refund the customer the amount the thieves have done for offline payments. In Nigeria, banks

don’t trust the customers to pay back, and the customers don’t trust their banks to make good of money stolen when contactless cards are lost. An impasse ensures.

There are hardly any shops in which you can use contactless cards.

It’s one thing to have a contactless card; it’s another thing to have places you can use them. The 3 million UBA Mastercard cardholders taking their contactless cards around use them as decorations since they are no places to tap and go. This, however, creates a chicken and egg problem. Apart from UBA, no other bank is serious with contactless cards, so the market is small, so this makes other banks not to invest in contactless reader POS. Why buy POS that nobody would use.

Irrespective of the challenges of contactless cards acceptance and issuance, the immense benefits and its ability to transform payments and make cashless real means it makes sense to pursue its usage. And the market is there; in every bank, there are more cardholders than users of USSD and mobile apps.

Product managers can deal with the risk by getting customers to activate their contactless limits. And it could work this way. Cardholders will go to their banks’ ATMs, insert cards and select the options for the number of offline transactions and amount. The bank CBA will put that amount as a lien on their accounts.

Each customer will be responsible

for his settings, and if the card gets lost, well, it’s like your wallet getting lost with the cash you just got from the ATM. The benefits are apparent; banks reduce their liability while customers can set what they are comfortable with to get the benefits of faster checkouts.

Banks should have a strategic partnership with high-traffic merchants such as tolls and major supermarkets. These would be anchor merchants that can help drive the adoption of the usage. After all, a picture is worth a thousand words – nothing will convince anyone to adopt contactless faster than seeing it in action. And by the way, the merchants also enjoy contactless as they can handle customers more quickly during peak shopping periods.

With those two things in place, the last logical piece of the tripod legs would be a massive campaign to let customers know about contactless.

Nigerians are very aspirational so getting a few A-listers and Nollywood stars to be the face of this would quickly turn tap-and-go into a must do for everyone.

When the ease of payment with cards is now better than actual counting of dirty Naira notes to make payments, we should be looking at annual transactions at least ten times more than the 2018 POS payments.

Adedeji Olowe is the Chief executive officer of Trium

Friday 15 February 2019

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BUSINESS

15

DAY

Wema Bank shares rally to one-year high ahead of FY report card

Pg. 16

C o m pa n y n e w s a n a ly s i s a n d i n s i g h t

BREWING

Heineken shrugs off intense Nigeria beer wars to record double digit growth OLUFIKAYO OWOEYE

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utch brewer Heineken, maker of Europe’s topselling lager brands, has announced that beer sales increased across all regions, in its 2018 earnings report.

According to the result, net revenue before exceptional items and amortisation (beia) increased to 6.1%, while total consolidated volume increased by 4% and revenue (beia) per hectolitre increased by 2%.

Consolidated beer volume grew by 4.2% in 2018, with a 4.5% growth in Q1 and 4% growth in Q2. Beer volume increased in Q4 to 3.3% against a comparable base of Q4 results of 4.6% in 2017.

Heineken volume grew to 7.7%, its strongest performance in more than a decade. While the volume of Heineken sold in Nigeria, Brazil, South Africa, Russia, the UK, Mexico, Poland and Germany doubled in growth.

Heineken CEO and cha i r o f t h e e xe cu t i ve board Jean-Francois van Boxmeer noted that the company delivered another remarkable growth in 2018 despite challenges in some markets.

“In 2018 we delivered another year of superior top-line growth. The H e i n e k e n b r a n d g re w 7.7%, its best performance in over a decade, with Heineken 0.0 now available in 38 countries” he said.

According to the report, Cider volume increased double digit to 5.6 million hectolitres as against 4.9 million hectolitres in 2017. In the UK volume grew mid-single digit and outside of the UK volume reached more than 2 million hectolitres.

Strongb ow and its flavour variants continue to gain share in South Africa. Performance of the company’s recently i n t ro d u c e d L a d ró n d e Manzanas in Spain and Strongbow in Vietnam is promising.

A l s o t h e L ow & No Alcohol brands, volumes

increased mid-single digit, delivering 13.1 million hectolitres in 2018 as against 12.5 million hectolitters in 2017. In Europe volumes grew high-single digit due to the continued success of Heineken and Radler. While in Ethio-

pia, Sofi Malt and its new coffee variant Sofi Buna boosted the growth of the LNA portfolio. Volumes in Nigeria were adversely impacte d by the w eak macro-economic environment.

Th e Du tch bre w e r ’s

shares rose as much as 4.88 percent to end trading at £86.24 Wednesday, after it reported full-year earnings that beat analysts’ estimates.

The Nigerian beer market has seen an intense battle for market

share by the three maj o r p l a y e r s. H e i n e k e n is gaining grounds in countries that have been dominated by AB InBev, which is grappling with a mountain of debt from its takeover of SABMiller Plc.

APPOINTMENTS

Dangote Cement hires new CFO ahead of London IPO SEGUN ADAMS

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angote Cement has hired Guillaume Moyen as chief financial officer for operations ahead of its proposed listing on the London Stock Exchange later this year.

Moyen, as explained by Carl Franklin, head of investor relations at the Lagos-based company would be taking on a newly created position.

Franklin made

the clarification in an interview with Bloomberg, explaining that the new CFO for operations would report to the Group’s Chief Financial Officer, Brian Egan.

Guillaume Moyen who is joining from U.A.E.-based OLA Energy where he was CFO, is French but resident in the United Kingdom.

Moyen has professional experiences in France, Europe, North America, Africa, Middle East and Asia where he has served in

various capacities including CFO of international companies-private and quoted-intervening in the industrial, ser vice, and distribution sectors.

His resume includes the local and remote management of multicultural and multidisciplinar y teams of more than 150 employees.

In his professional years up to the recent appointment at Dangote Cement, Moyen has performed excellently

in missions, carried out strategic positioning, optimization of operational and financial performance, restructuring, change management, optimization of back-office and operational processes, ERP deployments, internal audit, Mergers and acquisitions, and fundraising/ international financing.

Concerning the IPO, Dangote Cement is considering executing its plan on the listing

of shares in London after the Nigerian presidential and parliamentar y elections on 16 Februar y 2019 and state government elections in March.

Dangote Cement had penciled in September 2019 for a long-mooted initial public offering in London.

In 2010, billionaire owner, Aliko Dangote jettisoned plans to sell shares in London after a number of International Banks put in efforts to raise as much as $5bn.

Edited by LOLADE AKINMURELE (loladeakinmurele@gmail.com) Graphics: CHINEDUM ONYEMA

Following plans to revive the IPO in London early last year, Dangote Cement in April appointed former Xstrata Plc. Chief Executive Officer Mick Davis as a non-executive director alongside Cherie Blair, a lawyer and the wife of ex-U.K. Prime Minister Tony Blair, in a bid to strengthen its board.

So far, steps taken in the move to list later this year seem to improve the prospect of completing the deal.

16

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Friday 15 February 2019

Business Event

BANKING

Wema Bank shares rally to one-year high ahead of FY report card Gbemi Faminu

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ema Bank, a tier-two Nigerian lender, rose to the highest in a year in intra-day trading in Lagos ahead of a Board meeting to consider its full-year financial result for 2018.

The stock gained 7.23 percent to N0.89 Wednesday, the highest in over nine months since May 2nd 2018 when it traded at N 0.92 per share. This marks a 41.27 percent increase from the beginning of the year.

Wema’s board is set to meet to discuss and approve for public disclosure, the Bank’s financial result for the full year 2018.

According to a statement sent to the Nigerian Stock Exchange on Tuesday. “This is to inform The Nigerian Stock Exchange (The Exchange) and the invest-

ing public that a meeting of the Board of Directors of Wema Bank Plc (‘the Company’) has been scheduled for Thursday, 28th February 2019 at 10.00 a.m. at Lagos to consider and approve the Group’s Audited Financial Statements for the year ended 31st December 2018 along with other corporate actions.”

BusinessDay analysis of Wema’s financials for nine months to September 30, 2018 shows that the bank’s profit for the year climbed 72.77 percent to N2.6 billion in 2018 from N1.5 billion in 2017.

Profit before tax also surged between January and September 2018 to N3 billion, representing a 69.78 percent increase over the N1.7 billion achieved in 2017.

Similarly, its net interest income grew by 29.38 percent to N15.8 billion in 2018 from N12.2 billion in 2017, while its interest expense

dropped by 8 percent from N25 billion in 2017 to N23 billion in 2018.

Earnings per Share grew 73.5 percent in nine months 2018 to N9.2 per share as against N5.3 in 2017.

The notice further informed the investment community of its closed period for trading in the company’s shares in which directors, board members, employees and insiders are prohibited from dealing with the company’s shares.

The close period as stated in the notice would extend from 12th February till 24 hours after the release of the Audited Financial Statements by the Nigerian Stock Exchange.

Wema Bank Plc offers commercial banking services including trade finance, financial advisory and consulting services and foreign exchange operations. The company was incorporated on May 2nd 1945 while it got listed on the NSE on February 13th 1991.

L-R: Alex Goma, MD, PZ Cussons Consumer; Oladele Osibanjo, chairman, PZ Cussons; Dipo Dawodu, finance director, PZ Cussons, and Rita Michal- Ojo, head corporate services, Institute of Chartered Chemists of Nigeria, at the PZCCC stakeholders parley in Lagos yesterday.

Pic by Pius Okeosisi

COMPANY RELEASE

Prestige Assurance taps former MPC member as board chairman

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igerian insurer, Prestige Assurance Plc, has announced the appointment of Adedoyin Salami as the new Chairman of its Board of Directors, in a statement made available to newsmen in Lagos.

Salami is a Nigerian economist and currently full-time member of faculty at Lagos Business School (Pan-African University).

In November 2017, he completed a two-term (8 years) stint as a member of the Central Bank of Nigeria’s Monetary Policy Committee.

He was a member of the Federal Government of Nigeria’s Economic Management team during the tenure of late President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua. He also served as Vice-Chair (under the leadership of Alhaji Ahmed Joda) of the Transition Committee for President Muhammadu Buhari.

Salami is a member of International monetary Fund’s (IMF) Advisory Group for Sub-Saharan (AGSA), member of the Board of the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) and was Co-Chair of the Central Organizing Committee for the Nigerian Economic Summit in 2009. He is principal partner of Kainos Edge Consulting Ltd and Chairman of Prestige Assurance Plc. He began his career with Adetutu & Co. Limited before joining

Dr Doyin Salami

the University of Lagos, Akoka, Lagos, Nigeria, as a Lecturer in the Department of Economics.

A 1989 doctorate degree graduate in Economics of Queen Mary College, University of London, Adedoyin Salami’s research interests include issues in corporate long-term financial management; macroeconomic policy; corporate competitiveness and risk management; and characteristics of Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs).

From lecturing at the University of Lagos, Salami has built a career in consulting, establishing the research firm Edward Kingston Associates in 1997, which he merged with Softskills in 2014 to form Kainos Edge. His other consulting activities include assignments for the Coca-Cola Nigeria and Equato-

rial Africa (CCNEAL), Department for International Development (DFID), World Bank, United Nations Industrial Development Organisation (UNIDO), United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and serving as Peer Reviewer for the International Finance Corporation’s (IFC) review of its Nigeria strategy. Salami has written extensively on the Nigerian economy. And he currently sits on the boards of the African Business Research Ltd., First World Communities, and Diamond Pension Fund Custodian.

Salami who is a professor at Lagos Business School brings to the Board of Prestige Assurance, over 25 year experience of solid financial management, economic expertise and business development.

Also appointed to the Board of the Company is Funmi Oyetunji, a Fellow of the Institute of Chartered Accountants of Nigeria.

Oyetunji has experience in the Banking sector where she rose to the position of General Manager (Treasury) as well as in Audit firms where she demonstrated her expertise in auditing. She sits on the Board of various blue chip companies.

Prestige Assurance Plc is a Nigerian general insurance company with offices nationwide.

L-R: Olusola Bankole, chief marketing officer, Cyberspace Limited; Victor Abulele, director, finance and admin; Joe Onwubuya, executive director; Boma Beddie-Memberr, sector lead/ trade advisor for ict, British High Commission; Stanley Oduah, chief operating officer, Cyberspace Limited, and Azubike Osunwa, chieftechnology officer, during the official handover of ISO 9001:2015 QMS Certificate to Cyberspace Limited in Lagos.

L-R: Dipo Adesida, chief operating officer, Verdant Zeal Group; Cornelius Onuoha, MD, RedGecko PR; Oyelade Abidogun, alara of ara, Osun State; Tunji Olugbodi, executive vice chairman, Verdant Zeal Group, and Abimbola Ogunleye, head, human resources and administration, during the royal visit of the Alara to Verdant Zeal Court, yesterday in Lagos

MARKETS

African Eurobonds shine as high yields lure investors ISRAEL ODUBOLA

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frican Eurobonds have outperformed their peers in the emerging market this year, with Kenya and Zambia topping the list of best-performing emerging market sovereigns in the Eurobond market, data from Bloomberg showed.

Of the 12 sovereigns that has performed well in the Eurobond market this year, eight are African nations.

East Africa’s biggest economy Kenya, returned 9.9 percent on the average for Eurobonds, followed

by Zambia with 9.8 percent average returns.

Nigeria, which powers the largest economy in the continent, took the fourth spot and returned 9.2 percent in the Eurobond market while average total returns for Oil-rich nations – Angola and Gabon stood at 8.9 percent and 7.1 percent respectively.

This points that Africa is now a safe investment destination for emerging-market bond investors.

Africa’s dollar securities outperform other regions in the emerging market as the dovish stance of the US Federal Reserve lures investors to purchase riskier,

high-yielding assets.

Thecontinent’sEurobondshave returned6.4percentin2019,outpacing the average gain for emerging market which is 4.4 percent.

Other non-African nations that appeared on the top performing emerging market sovereigns in Eurobond are Argentina, Ecuador, Papua New Guinea and Jordan.

Latin-America countries – Argentina and Ecuador returned 9.5 percent and 8.3 percent respectively so far in 2019, while average total returns of Papua New Guinea and Jordan’s Eurobond settled at 7.6 percent and 7.0 percent respectively.

Azeezat Olaoluwa, lead anchor; Nifemi Oguntoye, lead anchor; Stella Din-Jacob, director of news, TVC News; Andrew Hanlon, CEO; Ngozi Alaegbu, lead anchor; Veronica Onuchi, lead anchor, and Mike Okwoche, lead anchor, all of TVC Communications, during the unveiling of a brand-new high definition news studio at its headquarters in Lagos. Pic by Pius Okeosisi

Friday 15 February 2019

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IMPACT INVESTING

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BUSINESS DAY

17

In Association With

Impact investing in food and consumer goods sector outside of their homes. In those countries, the evidence is that modern retailers create more jobs than they displace—particularly when employment across the entire distribution chain is taken into account.

Bulgaria has seen retail jobs increased by 25 percent between 2000 and 2010, which coincided with the rise of several international chains.

Modern retailers, moreover, are key sources of foreign investment. For example, in Poland, foreign investments account for about 40 percent of the money pumped into the retail sector.

In those countries, the evidence is that modern retailers create more jobs —particularly when employment across the entire distribution

DAVID IBEMERE

I

t is over ten years since a coalition of philanthropists and investors introduced to the financial-services industry impact investing, a practice aimed at generating social and environmental benefits alongside financial returns. Since then over $77 billion in assets are under management across the world.

Today, impact investing has developed to become one of the most exciting social movements following the growing needs for investment to protect the planet and increase prosperity.

The United Nations, on its part, has continued to canvass around the world for a Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) which requires investments in the region of $2.5 trillion. One of such 17-goal initiative is to eradicate extreme poverty and hunger around the world including Nigeria.

While the figures could be intimidating, the good news is that there is a growing interest, and individual investors are now demanding opportunities to do so and the retail industry can provide that window.

In Nigeria, impact investors seem to have concentrated on financial services, agriculture, health, housing, ICT, energy, and services, as the sectors of importance to them. Other sectors that attract their attention include manufacturing, infrastructure, education, tourism, water and sanitation, construction, and real estate.

However, these investors have paid little attention to the food and consumer goods retailing and how such investment or intervention could be used to help grow the sector.

Retail in Nigeria was once confined to traditional open markets and small local storekeepers – loosely referred to as the informal retail sector of the Nigerian economy – which serviced communities. Between 1960 and the early 1980s, there were standard retail malls which operated chain stores across the country; their number reduced because of the

harsh business environment and the decline in business activities in that era, leaving the country without standard malls for retail businesses.

However, over the past two decades, the retail sector has undergone a dramatic transformation with top international brands seeking to expand international footing in Nigeria, and many other local players also competing for the same market space.

Today, these retailers and wholesalers are crucial links in Nigeria economy, accounting for 16 per cent of Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2018. A report by McKinsey and Company, a New York-based management consulting firm, also estimated that the growth opportunity in food and consumer goods in Nigeria will reach $40 billion in 2020 driven largely by a market of over 180 million people, a growing middle class with spending power and rising urbanization, nevertheless, having the best conditions does not translate into actual success.

The Mackingsey & Co report in 2014 titled Africa’s growing giant: Nigeria’s new retail economy further describes the Nigerian market as both capturable and too large to ignore.

“Companies that act now to build a winning business model will be getting in on the ground floor of

one of Africa’s biggest growth opportunities. Although 90 percent of Nigerians have limited discretionary income, there is an important and growing opportunity within a subset of the population. Given the country’s large population (174 million, 37 million households), the portion of people defined as middle and upper class represent a sizeable pool of potential consumers.

“A significant 11 to 18 percent

of urban households – numbering over 2 million –have purchasing power and annual incomes over $10,000, which puts them in the modest affluent class. Half of the country’s growth in wealth will come from these households. On the next rung of the income ladder – the emerging middle class – there is also considerable growth.

Nigerian households with incomes of more than $5,000 a year will increase from a current 20 percent of the population to 27 percent by 2020, putting them within the target customer base of formal retail chains”, the McKinsey report says.

The last few years have seen folding up of start-up retail companies, especially in the online space. Analysts therefore are of the consensus opinion that the sector remains in dire need of high impact investment, if players must be part of the future which the retail economy promises especially in job creations.

In other emerging markets for example, most retail employees are women who for the first time are gaining an opportunity to work

chain is taken into account. This value is evident in the large numbers of consumers choosing to shop in modern retail outlets where they are available.

Economic studies also show that the expansion of major retailers can also have a profound effect on consumers, giving them more choices and driving down prices.

This investment will help create modern retailers which will help drive the development of local industry. Most people buy at least some of their products from domestic suppliers – a win-win that bolsters the local economy, while insulating retailers from fluctuating exchange rates.

These joint ventures help local suppliers gain access to financing, technology, and global best practices, making them more efficient and also help in raising environmental, health and safety standards.

The development impacts of retail sector are important and if properly channelled, could help meet the goals of ending extreme poverty and boosting shared prosperity in Nigeria.

18 BUSINESS DAY

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Friday 15 February 2019

Friday 15 February 2019

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BUSINESS DAY

LeadingWoman

19

When mother and daughter are in sync, that business thrives

In celebrating Genevieve magazine at 16, the Publisher/Editor-in-Chief, Betty Irabor and her daughter, the Editor, Sonia Irabor, takes Kemi Ajumobi down memory lane while sharing on current strategies, changes and projections for the magazine.

Betty Irabor

E

merging from humble beginnings as a daughter of a Nigerian police officer and a seamstress mother, Betty Irabor learned the value of hard work and developed a strong conviction and drive. She learned early in life that even without the so termed “model family” to support her, she could still achieve excellence in whatever she did.

Betty Irabor has been a major player in the Nigerian publishing industry for over fifteen years.

Betty at 46, with six years industry experience decided to take the plunge and publish her own Magazine – Genevieve, Nigeria’s leading lifestyle, culture and fashion magazine. She is the author of the best-selling book “Dust to Dew” a book which chronicles her seven years battle with clinical depression and her journeys through life.

Through her book, she has raised awareness and increased the conversation on mental health.

Betty is widely acknowledged as the woman who started the conversation on Breast Cancer awareness in Nigeria. Through her Pink Ball foundation she began a massive advocacy programme on breast cancer. She was named a Hero for the Lancôme Paris ‘My Shade. My Power’ beauty campaign in Nigeria. Betty Irabor is a wife and a mother.

My life’s journey I learnt early in life that hard work does not harm you but it strengthens you even though that time I was young, I used to think it was punishment.

You know the way we laugh at Nigerian mum’s now, I used to think that when my mum was raising me and not sparing the rod, I saw myself pretty much as an errand girl as I did most of the housework in the family but later in life, it helped prepare me for the journey that I was going to take in starting a business like this, because I was used to working hard, being tenacious and being disciplined knowing that you have to have integrity in whatever you do.

Such things prepared me for what I am doing now and basically publishing Genevieve has been a labour of love.

Starting Genevieve Starting Genevieve, I really wasn’t prepared for what I met. First, I was a woman, I was forty-six, I was also starting something that hadn’t been done, I had no template to work on, and so it wasn’t a copy and paste experience. We had to start everything, create our template from scratch and then go into this journey that men said wasn’t for women. It was supposed to be like a boys club and women were somewhat excluded, it wasn’t intentional but it was just the way it was packaged to us that publishing was for men.

I just felt that there was a hungry market and I have always been a magazine person. I would travel and buy magazines and I would read because I wasn’t really into books. Then one day, I woke up and I was forty-six, my husband had travelled and I was in the room alone and I was looking through foreign magazines and I thought to myself, ‘this is one thing we do not have’ and I started running, creating a dummy, creating contents, trying to get a business plan done and trying to get investors on board and I never stopped running until I had a copy in my hand. That was a good thing because I didn’t have time to look back and second guess myself.

It was later that it dawned on me ‘oops, how are

and vision. So what has made this quite a good partnership is the fact that it is a partnership. It’s no longer governing, and that trust allowed me space and a lot of room to work and to create.

we going to survive this?’ I asked myself and by the time the first edition was in my hand, it was anything but what I wanted, the quality was substandard, the pictures and everything about it was not what we wanted and I remembered that I shed a few tears at the printing press when we had that copy.

I wanted to blame the printer but then I realized that it is garbage in, garbage out. Then we made so many other costly and expensive mistakes.

There was a whole edition that we had to set ablaze and by the sixth edition I had lost N3 million to a vendor, an agent. So we made all our mistakes but we just kept going and that’s one thing about something you are passionate about.

Even though you may not see all the reasons to continue, even though it may not bring you the kind of money or prestige at that particular time but passion just keeps you going and I think that is how we have managed to stay relevant in sixteen years.

Pink Ball PinkBall was something that found us as it were.

Because I remember thinking that so many magazines have this thing in October where when you open the magazine, you just see pink, and the pick ball ribbon, so who were the people going to come forward to say ‘I have breast cancer’ or ‘I’m a survivor’ or ‘my family died of breast cancer?’ Nobody. The stigma was very intense and how could we have a pink ball or breast cancer edition when there are no story tellers.

But the minute we put the word out there, Dr. Orija, who was in this meeting with us, said she knew a few people who were survivors, and then she reached out to them but it was difficult to get them to come out because the stigma was so intense. So when she couldn’t find somebody, she said, ‘okay, I’ll tell my story’ then we said okay, but we want somebody with a cancer story. Then she said ‘I’m a survivor’. We all looked at her…shocked! You are a survivor and you’re alive!? It was strange.

This was in 2005 when nobody was talking about cancer.

After that, next thing, we just found that we were now the voice for survivors, we became the advocates to talk about cancer, to preach self-examination, to preach early detection, and before we knew it, we had a hotline, we were the go-to place for people who found lumps, and we ourselves, were not prepared for that. That was how we started the narrative on breast cancer awareness, that’s how we came to be the first magazine to take that on as a course.

16 years down the line, what are you grateful for?

I’m very grateful that I did. That I was able to not allow my fears to rule me, because I’m that kind of person that, when I have an idea and the minute I start thinking about it, I’ll start seeing all the mountains and immediately, I’ll drop the idea. But for some reason, Genevieve was something that I wanted to see through.

It was very difficult, hectic, I didn’t have enough publishing knowledge, there was no structure, no infrastructure, it’s just the kind of business you’d start and you’d say to yourself, ‘how am I going to even survive one year?’

I said to myself at a stage, let me just do one year. Let it be on record that I did something for one year. So that we’re still here now, there is pretty much a lot of grace, there is a lot of self-effort, there is a lot of grit.

I’m just grateful for the fact that we stayed the course.

Did you ever see yourself in the position you are today as Editor?

I think it’s a number of things. Starting with the magazine from such a young age, I always had an idea of what I wanted to do. I knew that I was never going to do… just one thing. I just didn’t know how that was going to work. I did however know that Genevieve would somehow be a part of it, I didn’t know in what capacity. I turned down the offer to be Editor a few times before I picked it. However, that was not because I didn’t feel it was possible, I just, at that point, did not feel I could present to myself with enough skill, talent and a good enough, reputable CV to give me the confidence to accept that job. I am not the sort of person that would take up something if I don’t agree with myself, and that’s for good and for bad.

So taking on the role, Editor, I knew it’d come with the weight of what the magazine means to people, it would come with the inevitable comparison. My mother has done an impeccable and remarkable job, but that weight is there, and I am taking that on, and will be looked through that lens. For me, it was important that internally, I took confidence in what I was bringing, and that I would be able to balance this as well as my other pursuits, and I think that’s been the real important thing for me. Yes, I’m the Editor of Genevieve, but I have other parts of my identity, and other parts of my career trajectory that have brought me here.

When you say other things, you mean?

I am a professional actress, a published writer, a published ghost-writer as well, and I’m a film maker. These are things that I am pursuing with the same enthusiasm, the same amount of energy, and the same determination with which I am working with Genevieve magazine.

Betty The book Dust To Dew Building Genevieve, I gave much more than I should have given. It’s like when you have a child, you give everything –your energy, your wellbeing, your resources, you give to that child because you want to raise a child that is functional, not dysfunctional. And that was the same energy I put to Genevieve. I never do anything half way or 50 per cent. It’s a 100 percent or nothing.

In building Genevieve, I was not really focusing on the fact that it was taking a lot of me to run a successful business. Somewhere along the line, I didn’t pay as much attention to my health as I should have. I suffered from insomnia, from years of staying late to editing, to meeting our deadlines, there was so many crisis I had to manage. I was editing into 3am, I wasn’t sleeping. But I didn’t think it was problem even though I had suffered from insomnia for years. The pressure I put on myself was so intense that my health started to suffer until I reached that breaking point, and I hit ground zero.

It’s not only about my battle with mental health.

It’s a story from way back when I was eight, all the things I went through as a child, and some I thought I had overcome, but I didn’t realize that I had internalized them so much that they had

Sonia become like a cancer eating from inside, and it wasn’t until I went into therapy that I was able to talk about it, to trace some of the things that had happened.

So who is Betty Irabor now?

I am just a woman who at 62 still believes that she has the whole world ahead of her and where she has been is just a rehearsal for where she is going. My birthdays are behind me, I am very optimistic about the future, I have big dreams, I am not that person who was insecure, people-pleasing. I am a blend of satin and steel, soft on the outside but very strong-willed inside. I am not easily broken.

S

Sonia Irabor

onia Irabor is a writer, filmmaker and the Editor of Genevieve Magazine, Nigeria, where she began 16 years ago as their teen columnist, aged 13. She is also a classically-trained actress who started her career on stage in London before making her Nigerian debut on the hit Red TV series, Inspector K (which she also co-wrote). She can next be seen in a new comedy series out in February. Her contributions and endeavours have been acknowledged by Forbes Africa (The Under 30 List - Creative Category, 2018), YNaija, New York

Times, Lancôme, and more. She is also an advocate for mental health awareness and equal opportunities, fair treatment, justice and access to basic necessities for young girls and women across Nigeria.

Joining the team I started at the beginning with the magazine’s first edition till it evolved and I think that eased the insecurities of me being seen as Mrs Irabor’s daughter. Upon reaching adulthood and being more aware of the impact and influence that they both have, that made me want to focus hard on working independently and be sure that I was confident enough that I could present my work, talent and skills and that this is me. So it has been more motivation than anything else.

In narrating the story of Genevieve today, were you challenged with synchronising the story of what it used to be and what you now want it to be?

What I’ve noticed is that there has been an organic enough transition. Genevieve has been around for 16 years, and in that time, what we found is people who hadn’t consumed it themselves had heard enough about it. As my mum had mentioned, the challenge for me was opening it up for younger audience, letting them know that we are for all women and not just

focused on women over 40 and I think that was an interesting task to some degree.

I guess it was an organic transition into a broader audience and broader stories to tell. But looking back on the stories that we were telling back then, a lot of them still stand firm till today and a lot of them are stories that can be consumed by women from the age of 21. We weren’t telling stories that were so exclusive or so specific to one group of women, but we were telling stories that a lot of women across Nigeria, in the diaspora, and Africa will be able to relate to.

How has working with your mum been… then and now?

When I started at 13, there was a little bit more governing of what I was doing, and a little bit more monitoring. When I went away to school and when I was working, I had a little more autonomy, but there was still that governing.

However, I think when I saw a change in the dynamic was before I moved to Lagos, it was when I became assistant Editor, I think by that point, I had built a lot of trust just by my portfolio, and by what I had been able to do. So, making that transition to Editor when I came back, came with enough confidence in my capabilities, abilities

How are you marrying all together?

Share some of your works in the same category as you mentioned I trained for two years to become a professional actress, I trained at the Drama school in England and then I went on to do a lot of stage work. So I was a stage actress before I moved back. Then I co-wrote Inspector K which came out on UBA’s WebTV which I also acted in, and I’m working on my first feature film. I do sing too.

My knowledge that I’m doing this from a place of passion is something that has really helped me to look at it as a different thing that I’m birthing, but there is that weight, I must really emphasize that.

Being Editor of Genevieve I think in the past year, I have added a little bit more life to it. I have also shifted the voice back to what it was. I think a lot of what I’m doing now is not really a case of reshaping the magazine, we are returning it to its glory days but expanding that and presenting that to a wider audience. So I was looking through a lot of the old magazines and I realized we had the voice which was unabashed and unafraid to tell very daring stories, we were talking about feminism in 2005 quite strongly, we were talking about the life of strippers in 2006. Nothing is new under the sun, but I’m operating from the place of unabashedness and I think in doing so, I am reclaiming what Genevieve used to be and presenting that to a wider audience and I hope a decent job at that.

Also, we are bringing it to a digital space, which

means that people in the diaspora and other parts of Africa are able to consume content; and I think that’s something that has been exciting to see the way people are engaging with us, and how many people now want to be part of what we are doing who not just in Nigeria.

When was that moment you said to your mum you were ready, and what made you make that decision?

I walked up to her and told her. It was until it was announced it dawned on me what I had done.

But I couldn’t shift gears. I don’t think anyone is ever 100 per cent ready, but at some point you are just going to have to do what you have to do.

What is it about your mother that inspires you?

She goes hard for what she believes in. It’s a very admirable quality, that never-say-die energy that she has. When I think back to when she just started and the number of times she had come home a little bit dejected because someone had laughed in her face, like this is never going to work, but she kept going. At the time, other publications that were prominent were very specific, and consumers enjoyed her specificity.

For her to just keep going despite the hurdles and to now have something 16 years later and still such a market leader is as a result of that energy that she has.

Who is Sonia?

I am an animated creative, with an extreme amount of focus, but such an enthusiasm for ideas that I constantly battle those two sides.

Challenges?

Professionally, one of the biggest adjustments has been working as an adult in Lagos. The tendency is that when people go away we come back to the chaos of Lagos and have very different approach to things and so, we just adjust to human interaction, to how people go about businesses here. It has been a big adjustment, and that is something we have been working on.

As everyone would say, lack of infrastructure has been such a large, looming challenge and so, that’s something that I constantly have to battle with.

Do you battle with generating content?

Yeah, from to time you always have to toe that line between what’s great on a global scale or what’s great in The US and The UK, and what’s great locally. Realizing as well that what’s relevant there does not always translate and having the clear enough vision to tap into this market.

Yes, sometimes, it feels like it’s narrowing the pool, but it’s not. It’s just challenging it to just ignore specifics.

Being Betty Irabor and Soni Irabor’s daughter?

What I’ve noticed is that the real root of that feeling of ‘it’s me, I have a name’, is the patronizing nature of it. It’s not necessarily that someone would ask, “Are you Betty Irabor’s daughter?” that is a problem, it’s that I’m a 29years old that people would speak to me as though I am 12, that condescending energy is the thing that I push back against, and I also do not feel challenged hiding what I feel about this.

I battle with social anxiety, so my feelings sometimes do retreat and that comes across in a certain way. So when those patronizing things happen, I tend to want to just remove myself from the situation which again, people would take personally…which is unfortunate.

20

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INSIGHT

Nigeria’s middle class crisis!!...

Why the Diminishing Middle Class is Stagnating Economic Growth

the total nation’s income and the average Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) for the economy during the period was a steady 3.7% per year. But between 1980 and 2010, the middle class received on average 46% of the nation’s income and the average CAGR dropped to an average of 2.7%, though a mere 1% drop but a difference of 1% over 30 years was a huge difference in the nation’s economic growth. At 3.7% the economy will grow more than 3 times its size and at 2.7% it will grow to about two and a quarter its size.

To illustrate this, the International financial organizations and multinational consulting firms have projected that Africa has the capacity to grow at an average CAGR of 4.5% till 2050 if the economies are diversified. Using Nigeria as a classical example and a GDP of about US$375.7 billion as at 2017, growing at an average of 4.5%, Nigeria’s GDP will hit US$1.605 trillion in nominal terms by 2050, but should the CAGR drop by just 1% to 3.5%, the GDP will reduce to US$1.169 trillion in nominal terms, a huge difference of US$436 billion with just 1% drop in CAGR over a period of 33 years. A loss of economic capacity and bigger than the present economy.

So why the middle class!!…….

A strong Middle class is the backbone of the economy, they are the major spenders and every economy depends on the spend-

‘ A thriving middle class is the source of growth in a technological, capitalist economy. Investing in the middle class is the most pro-business thing you can do - Nick Hanauer

ing power of the consumers. Of the five factors that makes up the aggregate demand (GDP) of an economy, consumer spending alone makes up two-third of the economy (66.6%), hence if consumer spending suffers it stagnates the entire economy. As the largest factor of the economy, it represents not just a major factor, but the pipeline to which every part of the economy gets their supply for survival, in the United States, Consumer Spending accounts for 70% of the national economy.

At US$375.7 billion economy, Nigeria’s consumer spending as part of the overall economy should ordinarily account for US$250 billion. This is the part of the economy that grows every other part, which is why when there’s a recession governments worldwide majorly focus on increasing consumer spending through fiscal or monetary policies.

A healthy economy depends on a grow-

‘

A strong economy depends on a strong middle class - Rahm Emanuel

‘

W

ith 3.3 billion people in the global middle class representing the world’s largest group and the driving force behind global economic growth, this group is projected to reach 4.2 billion people by 2022 and will represent 53% of the world population, 5.2 billion by 2028, accounting for 62% of the 8.4 billion world population, the progress to reduce poverty is growing and it is projected that on average about 160 million people will join the middle class annually till 2021.

From 2017 to 2028, world population is projected to increase by 870 million (11.5%) while the projected population in the middle class will increase by 1.9 billion (57.6%), but majority of the population moving into the middle class will happen in the Asian continent. The precedent increase of the middle class has also fueled a booming world economy with increased consumer spending per household where GDP has grown from US$11.17 trillion in 1980 to US$80.68 trillion in 2017, a whooping US$69.51 trillion. At the same time world population grew from 4.43 billion in 1980 to 7.53 billion at the end of 2017 representing an increase of 3.1 billion in population, while the world population grew by 70%, the combined global GDP grew by 622% in the same 37 years.

The global goal of reducing poverty by moving a larger population into the middle class has been the strategy used by progressive nations to grow economy which has also propelled economic wealth and has now become the leading strategy amongst developing nations. Countries have come to realize the strategic importance of a growing middle class to economic growth, wealth creation, and sustainability.

Following the Global Recession of 2008, on December 6th, 2011 the then United States President, Barack Obama on his quest to reviving the economy and getting it going again, made a case for the Economy in Osawatomie, Kansas on why the Middle Class is strategic to the overall strength and sustainable growth of the Economy. The President made it clear that if The United States must have a stable economy then it must continue to empower and grow the middle class. It is the middle class that grows the economy and not the rich.

So who are the middle class?...They are the individuals and household who fall between the working class and the upper class within a societal hierarchy. They have higher proportion of college or university degrees than those in the working class, more income available for consumption, and may own a property. They are often employed as professionals, managers, and civil servants. While the United Nations uses the Global measures and outlines a middle class as someone who lives on US$10 – US$100, the African Development Bank (AFDB) which focuses on the African continent, measures the middle class as those who live on US$2 – US$20 a day.

In Osawatomie, Kansas, President Obama made it known that a weakened middle class will not only hurt those in the middle class category but hurts everyone by

stifling the overall economic growth of the country because of the strategic economic role it plays, stating that “when the middleclass families can no longer afford to buy the goods and services that businesses are selling, it drags down the entire economy from top to bottom”. While politicians see the middle class as the gains that needs to be created from Economic growth, the middle class is actually the source of economic growth, stating that a strong middle class provides a stable consumer base that drives productive investments and those who supported President Obama’s claims presented data to prove the President’s points.

They argued that the United States Economy from 1947 to 1979, a period of 32 years, on average the middle class received 54% of

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Roman O. Oseghale

ing and stable middle class, they are the drivers of entrepreneurship and innovation, while entrepreneurship is the foundation of most Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSME’s), making up 50% of the GDP of any economy, the MSME’s make up over 90% of all businesses contributing 60% to 70% of all employments. Innovation on the other hand is what pushes every economy beyond its potential to a new level helping introduce new products to the market and the middle class creates the demand for the products.

The middle class create jobs in an economy, so when the middle class are not faring well or are being stifled, MSMEs suffer, workers are laid off, and unemployment increases, and as unemployment increases it depresses the economy, it becomes a circle and ultimately leads to poverty trap where those who have falling below the poverty line are unable to lift themselves out of poverty due to unavailable enabling opportunities and business environments.

With over 90% of all businesses and contributing 60% to 70% of all employment, the middle class can be defined as the major job creators of any economy, a strong middle class is a strong consumer demand for the economy, and a strong demand grows businesses and employ more people, a strong and growing middle class means more MSMEs, and more MSMEs means more jobs for the economy. The level of employment is a major factor that influences the demand for consumer goods in any economy.

While in Nigeria, MSME’s contribute about 48.47% to the GDP and as at 2015 was employing 60 million Nigerians from a total of 37 million MSMEs, a growing middle class and MSME’s becomes an allure to Foreign Investors because the middle class spending contributes a hefty chunk to the consumer spending of any economy and this increases foreign capital inflow into the country at the same time facilitating technology transfer. Increasing middle class also signifies decreasing income inequality and reduces crime and promotes security stability for the country, countries with security stability attract the most foreign investments, and Asian countries are beneficiaries of major capital inflow through foreign direct investments due to increasing middle class. A greater part of the insecurity Nigeria faces today is as a result of the diminishing middle class.

An increasing middle class is a major driver for education, the more the middle class in a country the more kids are enrolled in school, they value education, and more so important, parents from a middle class family never want their kids to do less if they are educated. A society made up of a growing number of middle class means the bracket of income inequality is smaller, and equality promotes investments in education and such societies tend to invest more in public goods which further benefits the whole society by continuously closing the gap of income inequality. With about 13.2 million kids outside school in Nigeria, it is a strong evidence of a diminishing middle class and as the kids gets to adult age, this will lead to weak consumer demand and also lead to unemployment in future.

Joseph Stiglitz, a renowned economist

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and Nobel Prize winner also pointed out that the wider the income inequality is in a country the less the country will take collective actions to improve public goods which includes education and health. Countries with a higher number of middle class and lower income inequality tend to spend more on education and healthcare, research has also shown that countries that spend more on education tend to achieve more results through what is called the knowledge economy investing time and resources on research and development which leads to manufacturing, better process management, and efficiencies!!!…….. This is the foundation of most economic super powers of today.

President Obama in his speech argued that a growing and strong middle class promotes and boosts economic growth through better governance, stating that high and increasing inequality will create problems and challenges for democracy by distorting it through “an outsized voice to the few who can afford high priced lobbyists and unlimited campaign contributions”. These few hold brief for the interest of a selected few, but a well-educated middle class stands to challenge governance, formulate and promotes efficient and honest delivery of government services through good policies that eventually leads to better economic freedom and ultimately leads to sustainable economic growth boosting investors confidence, but a weak middle class is the direct opposite where government is unable to deliver the basic needs to its citizens.

As Consumer spending diminishes, revenues of most companies are affected, and as revenues drops, companies basically switch to survival moods and have to cut down on employees to maintain profit levels to remain in business, hence unemployment increases in the economy. This is part of what has been driving up unemployment in Nigeria, the middle class is a critical economic and social developer for any country, creating a stable demand for local and international products, and when they are unable to create this demand, it weakens the economy.

In January 2018, the NBS released its report stating that the Gini Coefficient which measures inequality worsened from 2004 to 2013 from 0.356 to 0.41, surprisingly this was the period Nigeria had its biggest economic growth, which meant most of the wealth was accumulated in the hands of a few rich

people. The Gini Coefficient only dropped to 0.391 in 2016 as stated in the report, why?….. it is simple!!!....while population living in poverty did not reduce to close the gap but actually increased, the wealth which the rich had access to reduced and coupled with reduced oil prices.

The report also stated that national in-

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come/expenditure of the upper class (the rich) which makes up only about 10% of the population had been rising between 2004 and 2013, reaching 59.42% in 2013 and declined slightly to 58.39% in 2016, while the middle class accounted for just 30.26% in 2016 from 29.14% in 2013, a slight increase, while the lower class accounted for 11.36%.

What is basically happening is that with a weak middle class, the rich makes most of the spending in dollar terms compared to what the middle class spends, while the middle class that grows the economy and

billion (52.7%) lived in Extreme Poverty in developing countries, income of US$1 per day or less (in 1985 purchasing power parity dollars), but the world has also made a tremendous and significant progress in reducing Extreme Poverty, as of November 2018, about 630 million people now live in Extreme Poverty worldwide US$1.90/day at 2011 Purchasing Power Parity representing 8.3% of the 7.62 billion world population.

While Poverty may be reducing in the world, some countries including Nigeria, are increasing in Poverty.

not the rich, a weak middle class means big challenge for the economy.

In 2017, with a combined global GDP of US$80.68 trillion, global middle class spending was about US$37 trillion accounting for 45.8%, while in 2014 the combined spending of the Africa’s middle class was US$860 billion with a combined GDP of US$2.47 trillion representing 34.8%. At 30.26% in 2016, Nigeria’s middle class spending is way below that of the world and African average.

Before the 90’s, most Asian countries accounted for the highest number of Poverty and Extreme Poverty in the world. In 1981, according to the World Bank, the countries of South Asia with a combined population of 922 million had a total of 566 million (61.4%) of their population living in Extreme Poverty.

By 2013 at 2011 Purchasing Power Parity of US$1.90/day Extreme Poverty had reduced to 256.5 million (15.1%) of the combined population of 1.699 billion. The South Asian countries had been able to lift 309.5 million out of poverty and added an additional 777 million to the middle class through increase in population over a period of 32 years.

The success for Asian countries still lies ahead, it is estimated that 88% of the next one billion entrants into the middle class will come from Asia continent and will lead the world in GDP growth, 350 million from China, 380 million from India, 210 from the rest of Asia while 130 million from the rest of the world and middle class spending from the current US$37 trillion will reach US$64 trillion by 2030 and will represent one-third of global economy.

In East Asia/Pacific the reduction of Extreme Poverty and building up the numbers of the middle class was even more successful, the counties of East Asia and Pacific had a combined population of 1.582 billion in 1981 with 1.234 billion (78%) living in Extreme Poverty, China alone had 84% of its population of 994 million people living in Extreme Poverty about 835 million. By 2013 the headcount living in Extreme Poverty in East Asia and Pacific at 2011 Purchasing Power Parity of US$1.90/day had reduced to 78.82 million, (3.5%) of the 2013 combined population of 2.252 billion. China alone lifted 789.5 million people out of poverty as at 2017 and has helped in boosting economic activities.

The three major regions where Poverty was really prevalent in the world reduced poverty and lifted people into middle class, but the most successful regions had the highest growth in GDP per Capita. In East Asia/ Pacific where the increase of the numbers of middle class was most successful, the average GDP per Capita increased from US$1,263 in 1981 to US$10,370 in 2017 (721%), this region included countries first world like Japan and Australia which helped boost its GDP Per

Driving economic growth through strong and increasing middle class Most striving and stable economies are those that have continuously grown the numbers of their middle class, increasing consumer spending and attracting FDI’s.

Today, China is the second largest recipient of Foreign Direct investment in the World after the United States of America, with US$168.2 bn in 2017 and reaching an all-time

high of US$290.9 bn in 2013, as companies target the growing middle class for business expansion and growth, with over 420 million strong middle class and combined spending capacity that will account for 16% of world middle class spending by 2020.

Of the 4.518 billion world population in 1981, according to the World Bank, 2.38

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Capita in 1981. While South Asia increased its average GDP per capita from US$268 in 1981 to US$1,841 in 2017 (587%).

Sub-Saharan Africa which had a lower percentage of people living in poverty in 1981 (52.8%) of the total population, had a better GDP per Capita than South Asia with an average GDP per Capita of US$692 in 1981, and only increased to an average of US$1,554 in 2017, an increase of US$862 (125%). SubSaharan Africa could only reduce poverty from 52.8% of the total population to 41% in 2013, but at the same time the region had the highest growth rate in the world. Despite the fact that the percentage living in Extreme Poverty had actually reduced, the headcount in Sub-Saharan Africa increased as population increased. South Asia has been able to lift more people out of poverty into the middle class hence the boost in economic activities and wealth creation.

For Sub-Saharan Africa to grow and expand its economies like the success recorded in the Asian continent, it must lift people into the middle class by investing in them, and the continent must make use proceeds of its vast mineral resources by investing it on its people. Looking at a country like Nigeria that was ahead of majority of the countries in Asia in 1981 with a GDP per capita of US$809 has only been able to increase its GDP per Capita to US$1,969 in 2017, expansion of 143% in 37 years because of a diminishing middle class.

The increasing and thriving middle class has continued to grow and expand Asia’s economies, China’s GDP per capita has grew from US$197 in 1981 to US$8,827 in 2017, expanding by 4,381% in the same 37 years.

Indonesia increased from US$566 in 1981 to US$3,846 in 2017 (580%), Malaysia from US$1,769 in 1981 to US$9,945 (462%), and Thailand from US$721 in 1981 to US$6,594 in 2017 (815%). Despite good policies to grow the Asian economies, the success lies with the fact that a strong consumer demand was created by moving people from poverty to the middle class. Nigeria which had fewer people living in poverty both in percentage and headcount in 1981 and had more middle class as a percentage of the overall population had a higher GDP per Capita than most Asian countries then.

As people are moved out of poverty, the middle class is created, income increases and increased income is able to boost consumer spending in the economy causing a chain reaction to other aspects of the economy as more businesses and jobs start to spring up. This has shown in most Asian countries, a region that was the Poverty Centre of the world in 1981, of the 2.38 billion living in Extreme Poverty in the world in 1981, which was 52.7% of total world population of 4.518 billion, South Asia and East Asia/Pacific accounted for 1.78 billion (75%) of the total.

Nigeria and the middle class!!....

As at 2010 estimate, according to The World bank, 70% of the Nigerian population lived in poverty, today the 70% is still used to measure the poverty line in Nigeria and as at the end of December 2018 The World Poverty Clock estimated that 90.6 million (46.4%) of Nigerians live in Extreme Poverty. Those who live in Extreme Poverty live on equivalent of $1.90 or less per day (2011 Purchasing Power Parity), and those living in Poverty are basically those whose basic needs are meet, but just barely. With more people being added to extreme poverty and total head count of people living in Poverty Increasing, it means Nigeria has a diminishing middle class.

In 2017, IntelServe Inc. Canada, a business consulting firm carried out a research Continues on Page 22

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INSIGHT

Nigeria’s middle class crisis!!... on why poverty was increasing in Nigeria and why people were basically getting into what is called the poverty trap, a mechanism that makes it difficult for people to escape poverty, the Poverty Trap is created when an economic system requires a significant amount of various forms of capital in order to earn enough to escape poverty, and what

your expenditure. This means that on average, a Nigerian should have 18.03% as gross savings from their take home after expenditure to save and create household wealth that they can build up over the years through different types of investments.

This is where it gets interesting, according to The World Bank, the average saving rates in developing countries which includes: Upper Middle Income Countries, Lower Middle

the government must do to help the people get out of the poverty trap and build wealth.

The research discovered why the middle class has been slipping into poverty despite the fact that the country recorded economic growth or expansions and recessions over the years and why the Asian countries were able to lift their citizens out of poverty while recording economic growth. Of over 300 middle class families that were surveyed using household income and expenditure, about 99% had the same challenges and problems, the major factor being governments lack of investments in public goods, mainly education and healthcare and most importantly the underfunding which has led to the destruction of public education and introduction of private schools and how private schools have become the major drain pipe on the average household income of the middle class leaving most with a crippled consumer spending power after each school fees season and barely having enough to meet household expenditure with no extra spending power to invest in growing household wealth.

The major reason for this can be seen in the gross savings of the country, Nigeria’s gross savings averaged 18.03% in 36 years, from 1981 to 2017. The Gross Savings is the

Class Countries, Low Income Countries, and the Least Developed Countries is 20.5%, what this implies is that to get out of poverty, a family needs to invest an average of 20.5% of their annual income over time to create wealth.

At 20.5%, Nigeria is already below the world average, but where it gets worrisome is what happens to the 18.03% average gross savings per family.

According to the research, an average middle class family in Nigeria spends an average of about 24.5% of their annual income on private schools for their kids. The research was carried out on families having between one and four kids and depending on the level of income and preferred private school. Families with four kids spend as much as 38% of their annual income on education while those with one kid spend as much as 12%......so the middle class which is supposed to grow the economy has no extra spending power due to lack of governments sufficient investments in the education sector. So why a case for public goods such as education and healthcare? Education fall under what is called merit goods, and merit goods are good the government gives to the people irrespective of the fact that they can afford them, because if it is not given free, the goods will either be

gross national income less the total consumption plus net transfers, in other words gross savings is the difference between disposable income and consumption…..basically what is left between your take home and

paid for or under consumed, and their under consumption or being paid for has both social and economic consequences for the country.

Such consequences include increasing poverty, stifling the growth and spending power

of the middle class, lower consumer demand and consumer spending, and lagging MSMEs due to lack or insufficient injection of funds.

External benefits are a major advantage of education, including rising incomes, present and future generations are able to benefit from productivity, and reduction of unemployment through occupational mobility.

Merit goods create positive externalities with third party spillover benefits increasing significant effects on social environment.

When merit goods and services are underconsumed under a free market condition it leads to market failures, and this is the classic case of what is happening to Nigeria, today there are about 13.2 million kids outside school up from 10.5 million in 2013, the future consequences to the economy will be huge through increasing poverty, diminishing middle class, low consumer spending, and unemployment due to lack of available skills. The moment Nigeria destroyed its public schools and the mass migration of the middle class to the private schools was the beginning of the slow death of the economy.

So why are the Asians lifting people out of Poverty?.....it is simple!!....apart from the policies of the government, a critical look at the gross savings explains it, for example China’s average gross savings from 1982 to 2017 was 42.1%, which means that the average person in China has 42.1% of their annual income to save and invest to escape poverty while enjoying the privileges of merit goods from

‘ No matter how

wealthy a few plutocrats get, we can never drive a great national economy. Only a thriving middle class can do that - Nick Hanauer

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the government, while Nigerian’s are battling with school fees, the middle class is getting quality and free education in China and other Asian countries are doing same. Indonesia’s average gross savings in 37 years was 25.7%, Thailand had an average gross savings of 29.3%, and Malaysia’s averaged gross savings of 32% in the last 37 years. Note that all these countries are well above The World Bank’s gross savings average of 20.5% for developing countries.

The higher the developing country’s gross saving and the ability to provide merit goods, the more successful the country in getting people out of poverty to build a strong and sustainable middle class that grows the economy. While some countries in Africa are increasing their middle class by moving people out of poverty, Nigeria seems to be doing the opposite by diminishing the number of middle class as they continue to fall below the poverty line.

From 1981 Poverty and Extreme poverty has been on the rise in Nigeria creating a weak consumer demand and a struggling economy that only depends on oil revenue, as the percentage of population living in poverty increased from 54.4% in 2004 to 70% in 2010,

moving more people from the middle class down below the poverty line and global oil prices dropping in 2008 to as low as US$34, coupled with the global recession, unemployment in Nigeria rose to 19.7% due to weak consumer demand and consumer spending.

With global oil prices falling to US$45 in the first quarter of 2015, and as low as US$27 in the first quarter of 2017, consumer demand and spending is low as 46.4% about 90.6 million people have spending power of US$1.90 or less per day and 70% of the population about 138.8 million living just barely having their needs met.

In the last five years and with the diminishing middle class and fall in global oil prices, the economy has been facing an uphill task, while the devaluation of the naira has also made more Nigeria’s fall below the poverty line, about 76 million people out of the 90.6 million were already living in Extreme poverty as at May 29th, 2015 using the margin of average of 8,000 people added to Extreme Poverty daily by the World poverty clock, we then conclude that the middle class is being wiped out irrespective of both economic growth and recession in Nigeria.

In conclusions……First, to grow a sustainable economy, Nigeria needs the middle class because without the middle class there can be no strong demand in the economy and employment will only depend on prices of crude oil. Secondly, to create the middle class, government must come up with strong policies on how to reduce poverty as more people are falling into poverty daily and move the lower class into the middle class status, these policies must be centered on Human Capital Development to help with creation of individual wealth through the support of productivity from innovation and entrepreneurship, this will create products to be consumed locally and will cut down on importations which will lead to increase in the gross saving of the country. And lastly, government must provide merit goods to help Nigeria’s increase their household savings to enable them invest more and spend more in the economy to create demand and employment.

The answer to Nigeria’s economic growth lies with a strong middle class that can increase consumer spending, create consumer demand, thereby creating jobs and reducing unemployment. And like the British economist John Maynard Kayne had advocated during the great depression of the 1930’s that increased government spending and lower taxes will help stimulate demand and pull the economy out of the depression…..but we must not forget to understand that government must at least provide or meet the basic needs of merit goods to help the people with increased purchasing power to create and stimulate the demand.

Roman O. Oseghale, MSc, EMBA Head Consultant/CEO IntelServe Inc. Canada

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Nigeria needs resilient public healthcare system to curb disease outbreaks ANTHONIA OBOKOH

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ontaining frequent outbreaks of infectious diseases is pushing Nigeria’s already stretched public healthcare system to break point. Health experts say the situation has been allowed to deteriorate and have suggested some solutions curb it.

The outbreaks of Lassa fever, Monkeypox, yellow fever, cholera and meningitis have put significant strain on the nation’s public health sector and have affected the economy through loss of labour, reduced productivity and inefficiency of businesses.

“Nigeria’s epidemic preparedness and response capacity require that some gaps be fixed, which include infrastructure, logistics, commodities, technology, human resource and communication to enhance detection, prevention and management of an outbreak,” said Muntaqa UmarSadiq, chief executive officer,Private Sector Health Alliance of Nigeria (PHN).

According to World Health Organisation, WHO at the core of any response to outbreaks is how well the country’s health system is functioning on a regular basis, before the disease strikes.

“A strong health system capable of providing effective primary care to its citizens will be much more resilient

when an unexpected crisis hits.

“Conversely, countries with weak health systems, which often also face a range of governance and poverty issues and multiple disease burdens, will struggle to provide basic health services. These challenges are worsened during severe disease outbreaks,” says the agency.

However, critics of the past outbreaks have cited medical negligence, reverting to old habits and lack of readiness as the reason for this potential outbreak reoccurrence.

According to the situation report released by the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control as of February 3, “Since the onset of the outbreak of Lassa fever this year (2019), a total of 731 suspected cases have been reported from 19 states. Of these, 275 were confirmed positive, three probable, 57 deaths in confirmed cases and 453 negatives (not a case).”

Thousands of Nigerians have begun to lose lives, not just to the outbreaks alone but due to lack of access to treatment and late presentation.

The fact that the prevalence of many communicable diseases, including Lassa fever and cholera, is increasing at an alarming rate poses a serious threat not just to Nigerians but also to its neighbours.

Umar-Sadiq pointed out that the state of health in Nigeria is characterised by poor health outcomes and suboptimal health care systems vulnerable to the threat of future epi-

demics and outbreaks, which threaten global health security.

“With more outbreaks on the horizon, Nigeria can’t afford to repeat this cycle of uncertain priorities, wasted time and investments. We need strong and clear leadership; effective deployment of new innovations,” he stressed.

However, there are important lessons to learn around the importance of partnership, leadership, communication and innovation.

“The importance of health education before and during outbreak cannot be over emphasised; it requires the full participation of the community,” said Femi Ayoola, a coordinator at Nigeria Centre for Disease Control recently spoke at a workshop on Infectious diseases risk communication

Natural ways to boost fertility

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any genetic and environmental factors can affect fertility in men and women. However, it is possible to increase the chances of having a successful pregnancy using natural methods.

This article will discuss evidence-based, natural methods for increasing fertility in both men and women.

In women, reducing stress and exercising often can boost fertility. In men, fertility-boosting actions include limiting alcohol intake and quitting smoking.

There are also several fertility treatments available for both men and women.

Methods for women There are many things a woman can do to increase the chance of becoming pregnant.

Below, we look at some of these methods.

Reducing stress Stress can reduce fertility in women.

Alpha-amylase is a biological marker of stress that scientists can measure in saliva samples. A study from 2011 showed that women with higher alpha-amylase levels may have a lower chance of conceiving naturally.

Engaging in stress reduction activities can increase fertility in women. For example, those who receive support and counselling for depression and anxiety have a higher chance of becoming pregnant than those who do not.

Quitting smoking Smoking tobacco can disrupt hormone levels and cause menopause to occur at an earlier age.

A systematic review of 11 studies showed that smok-

ing has significant links with an earlier age of menopause.

Giving up tobacco may boost fertility in women.

Staying a healthy weight Being either overweight or underweight can reduce fertility in women.

Some research suggests that being overweight might disrupt a range of reproductive processes. This includes the development and quality of the fertilization process and embryo growth.

Losing weight could help people overcome some of these difficulties. A 2014 systematic review suggested that women who are overweight or obese can increase the success of their fertility treatment by losing weight.

However, it is important to maintain a healthy weight.

Being underweight can also impact fertility. Some research shows that women who are underweight have a higher risk of ovarian dysfunction, infertility, and preterm birth.

Increasing physical activity Being physically active can also increase fertility in women.

A study of 50,678 women found that regular, strenuous exercise may lead to later menopause.

Some research has suggested that moderate levels of exercise also have positive effects on fertility. However, excessive exercise without a sufficient calorie intake can cause abnormal menstrual cycles and restrict fertility.

Methods for men There are many steps a man can take to boost his fer-

tility. We cover some of these below.

Maintaining a healthy weight Being either overweight or underweight also reduces fertility in men.

A 2015 systematic review examined fertility data from 115,158 participants. The researchers found that men with obesity may be significantly more likely to experience infertility.

They may also be less likely to respond to certain types of fertility treatment when not at a healthy weight.

The data also suggest that men have a 10 percent greater chance of experiencing a nonviable pregnancy. The term “nonviable pregnancy” refers to a pregnancy that does not lead to a live birth.

Being underweight can also increase the risk of infertility in men.

Giving up smoking Smoking tobacco can impact fertility in men as well as women.

Some research suggests that smoking tobacco can have a negative impact on semen quality and reduce the chances of reproductive success.

Therefore, not using tobacco could increase fertility in men.

Reducing alcohol use Drinking alcohol can negatively affect a man’s semen.

A systematic review involving 29,914 men suggested that greater alcohol use may lead to lower semen volume. Reducing alcohol consumption could therefore help increase semen quality.

Culled from Medical News Today (MNT)

plan development.

Similarly, Oladoyin Odubanjo chair, Association of Public Health Physicians of Nigeria (APHPN), Lagos Chapter said Nigeria needs to be more proactive in preventing, apply the lessons learnt and key success factors of the past should be applied in other to prepare the country against another outbreak.

“Effective surveillance is clearly important, containment, general precautions measure will minimise risk of transmission of the viral disease coming into the county” said Odubanjo.

Global strategies indicate that the roles of multi-sectorial partnerships, particularly the private sector at country level, is a critical precursor to accelerating progress towards set

objectives.

“Strengthening Nigeria’s epidemic preparedness and response will require bold innovative approaches and complementary public private partnerships,” revealed Umar-Sadiq.

However, the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control aimed at monitoring the challenges of public health emergencies and to enhance the country’s preparedness and response to epidemics through prevention, detection, and control of communicable and non-communicable diseases.

Its core mandate is to detect, investigate, prevent and control diseases of national and international public health importance, is always updating the disease situation reports weekly.

Sahara group, Dorcas foundation unveil ‘How Pink is Your Love’ campaign to combat cancer ANTHONIA OBOKOH

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ahara Group and the Dorcas Cancer Foundation are collaborating to create more awareness of cancer scourge in a bid to reinforce the role of early detection in preventing avoidable morbidity and mortality from the disease which claimed the lives of about 9.6 million people in 2018.

Data from the World Cancer website indicate that at least a third of common cancers are preventable and up to 3.7 million lives could be saved each year through implementing appropriate strategies for prevention, early detection and treatment.

Tagged ‘How Pink Is Your Love’, the project will take advantage of the euphoria surrounding the 2019 Valentine’s Day celebration to shore up awareness and early detection campaigns through youth engagement talks in schools, health walks, media interactions and donations to select cancer based nongovernmental organisations.

“Last year, Sahara Group added more fillip to the issue of climate change on Valentine’s Day. Our ‘Greenest Love of All’ campaign was well-received and generated remarkable awareness and commitment to galvanizing action towards protecting our environment,” said Bethel Obioma, head of corporate communications at Sahara Group.

“This year, we are delighted to work with the reputable Dorcas Cancer Foundation to stem the tide of cancer, a deadly disease which can be

tackled by awareness, early detection, accurate diagnosis, as well as prompt and proper treatment.” Obioma said.

According to him, cancer, which claims 17 lives every minute all globally, requires sustained global attention and collaboration to stem the tide of its adverse impact.

“Our campaign is actually a passionate appeal to extract more commitment from everyone to spread the word about cancer, get checked, encourage others to get checked in order to increase the chances of saving more lives through early detection.”

“There is also a high level of myths, misinformation and stigma that fuels the spread of the disease. So, at Sahara Group, we are asking, how pink is your love this valentine, as we take the fight to cancer,” he added.

Speaking on the partnership with Sahara Group, Adedayo Joseph, clinical radiation oncologist and executive director of the Dorcas Cancer Foundation said, “Not too long from now, every person living will know someone affected by cancer. We owe it to ourselves, and to the people we love to get involved.

This fight cannot be left for the oncologists, the doctors, healthcare professionals and non-profits. Every individual has a duty and an obligation to society, to do their part for cancer control.”

According to her, Dorcas Cancer Foundation has backed cancer research; published and distributed free of charge, a first of its kind childhood cancer handbook

in West Africa, funded diagnosis, treatment and rehabilitation for several children; partnered with community leaders and influencers to raise awareness; and trained hundreds of health care professionals on early detection and referral paths.

“This season, as everyone celebrates love and relationships, I believe we need to take a moment to think about those for whom life seems to be hanging in the balance; those whose priorities are vastly re-arranged by the diagnosis they face. Take a moment to show love to someone who desperately needs it,” she added.

Oluseyi Ojurongbe, manager, Sahara Foundation said the organisation remains resolute in its commitment to partnering with var ious stakeholders to “take cancer down”. He said the total annual economic cost of cancer which is estimated at 1.16 trillion dollars makes it imperative for various stakeholders across the globe to support sustainable awareness and prevention projects.

“The war to defeat cancer should be concerted, requiring the efforts of individuals, corporations and government. Sahara Group is excited to draw attention to the cancer menace as the world celebrates the concept of love. We believe the greatest form of love this valentine is to raise awareness and do everything possible to enhance the cause of early detection by promoting voluntary and sponsored medical intervention,” he added.

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General advice to business travellers

Executive Travel Health

Ade Alakija

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usiness travel usually refers to those going on short trips and usually (but not always so) involves staying in good standard accomodation. Good preparation for a business trip leads to less stress, is better for your health, and it is also a sign of an organised and alert mind.

The businessperson who is able to think ahead and prepare well for a trip benefits both themselves and the company they represent positively. Allow yourself time to adjust on reaching your destination, especially if you are flying across time zones.

If you travel frequently, it is advisable to have a regular checkup.

Checking your weight, blood pressure and cholesterol levels is always good practice.

Allow plenty of time to prepare Make a schedule of the intended trip. It helps to have a checklist in your scheduler of items needed for the trip. Start as early as possible.

(Dont forget your toothbrush).

With proper pre-travel planning, you will be mentally and pyschologically prepared to deal with stresses of frequent travel.

Have your Flight plans and all necessary details in writing (seperate from your phone organizer) eg hotel address and booking code, important phone numbers etc. Get information on the area you are visiting, for example Brazil were there

are recurring outbreaks of Dengue fever which you can protect yourself from with the proper advice.

Getting your visa early and awareness of local laws and culture is usually helpful. Plan to visit your family Doctor or Travel Clinic nearby to discuss your travel health needs. If vaccinations are compulsory for your destination, your vaccine card should be attached to your passport if possible so as not to loose it. (Rubber band or staple, but usually not advised)

tain spices or oils in food as well as alcohol can also lead to stomach upsets. You should consider taking an anti-diarrhoeal preparation with you.

Medical Conditions If you or your family member has any medical conditioner like Asthma, Diabetes, Heart Disease among other make sure to consult your physician and that you are stable before travel. Have enough medication on you to last at least one week after your planned return date and always carry your medication in your hand luggage. Plan in advance for refills in the destination country.

Accidents Unfamiliar surroundings and alcohol consumption often result in accidents. Sharp objects and discarded glass on beaches can injure your feet. Take special care crossing roads and beware of sea currents when at the beach.

Dealing with Fears Any fears you might have in regard to travel, at your destination, on route or with regards to loved ones being left behind ideally should be sorted out at home in a relaxed and calm environment.

Stomach Upsets and Diarrhea These are very common. Contaminated food and water is a major cause of illness and care is especially important when eating out and in countries where local hygiene is poor but also be carefull in developed countries were you can also get diorrehea eg the Noroviruse (Winter Viruse). Cer-

Sunburn This is possible for fair skinned Nigerians and is preventable. Limit your exposure and cover up especially aroud noon when the sun is at its greatest intensity. Suncream may be neccesary in some cases depending on activity.

S

ome medical experts have highlighted psychological implications and risk factors in drug abuse by patients.

The experts drew attention to the high prevalent risk factors following a recent survey conducted by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Drug Use and Health which shows that out of 14.3million Nigerians using any form of drugs about 376,000 are said to be high risk drug users.

The report also states that no fewer than 80,000 Nigerian inject drugs and those who take cannabis are 10.6million; while 4.6million take opioids (tramadol, codeine, morphine), while 87,000 Nigerians consume heroin and no fewer than 92,000 taking cocaine.

In addition, 481,000 Nigerians take tranquilizers and sedatives; 238,000 take amphetamines among others.

“Cannabis was the most widely used substance in the past year in Nigeria according to the report, the abuse of these substances has thrown many Nigerian’s especially teenagers and young people into depression, which is affecting the society today,” said Richard Adebayo, a consultant psychia-

HBL Team

trist and clinical psychologist at Federal Neuropsychiatric Hospital Yaba.

Adebayo explained that the trend in most people who have been hooked on this drugs chronically end up being depressed and some do not stop at that level of depression but commit suicide.

“It is common that people who have been hooked on drugs for a long time eventually end up attempting suicide or kill themselves out of depression,” he said.

Cannabis is the most commonly used drug and an estimated 10.8 percent of the population or 10.6 million people had used cannabis in the past year. The average age of initiation of cannabis use among the general population was 19 years.

Cannabis use was seven times higher among men (18.8 per cent among men versu 2.6 percent of women).

According to him, any route of administering cannabis, marijuana by cooking, drinking or smoking it is not beneficial to the body, stating it is inimical and dangerous to health, it links to multiple harm, not only in mental health, but cardiovascular disease.

“The parts of misconceptions people have about psy-

‘

choactive substances especially among the young. Cannabis does not give inspiration, inspiration comes from God. It disorganises not only the brains but the entire system,” the psychiatrist said.

However, the report further reveals that nearly 40 percent of high-risk drug users indicated a need for treatment of drug use disorders. Most of the high risk drug users considered it was difficult to access drug treatment. The cost of treatment and stigma attached to drug use and seeking treatment were cited as the primary barriers in accessing or availing drug treatment services.

Larne Yusuf a medical practitioner based in Lagos said, the effect drug abuse could lead to hormonal changes live behind even after stopping intake can be permanent.

“Most abused drugs targets the health directly or indirectly, it could be the brain or any organ of the body that could trigger some imbalance in the hormones which could lead to various behaviour problems” Yusuf further said that research has shown that overdose of drugs threatens the health and it affects almost all the organs in body.

Two-thirds of people who

BUSINESS DAY

If you travel frequently, it is advisable to have a regular checkup.

Checking your weight, blood pressure and cholesterol levels is always good practice

Jet Lag and Tiredness A recent study in the USA indicated that performance can be lowered by as much as 20 percent when travelling across time zones. Rest before travel is necessary for optimum performance and limiting activities on arrival will help. These problems may be underestimated and affect business efficacy. Some medications exist that can aid you if necessary.

Consult your Doctor. If on regular medication, such as diabetic drugs, watches should remain on home time until you are able to adjust your medication to local time. Exercise has been proven to improve productivity, so get active on arrival as soon as possible. If your need also take short naps. It will help refresh you.

Experts highlight risk factors in drug abuse ANTHONIA OBOKOH

@Businessdayng

24

Loneliness Cultural differences, family problems at home or losing touch with head office can cause anxiety.

Many of these difficulties can be overcome with experience and sympathetic support from family and friends. Personnel and occupational health departments should take this into account.

Unsafe sex Casual sex and failure to use a condom with new partners, particularly with professional sex workers, puts you at risk of serious infections including HIV/ AIDS. Culture Shock This is a very real problem even for short-term travellers. Family or social problems at home and psychological problems, including alcoholism make adapting to a new and different culture difficult. Maintaining contact with family and friends may also be complicated because time differences between continents may cause communication difficulties. A situation that is exciting and welcome to one person may be daunting to another. Problems encountered may include adjusting to a different climate, religious and cultural differences, changes in living standards and different social amenities. Other problems such as language differences, coming to terms with poverty and begging, and compulsory movement restrictions for safety or political reasons. Being patient rather than critical is helpfull.

To be continued next week Friday.

WellNewMe to participate at Pitch@Palace Africa third edition used drugs are reported to be having serious problems, as result of their drug use, such as missing school or work, doing a poor job at work and school or neglecting their family.

Nearly 1 in 8 persons that is 12 per cent of the adult population in Nigeria has suffered some kind of consequence due to another person’s drug use.

Among those who had experience any consequences, most had felt threatened or afraid of someone’s use of drugs.

“Drug use and its consequences are fast becoming one of the increasingly talked about challenges across our country today”, said Yemi Kale, Statistician General of the Federation.

“It has, and still continues to affect the lives of many individuals, families, organizations and communities across our country. Many families have been broken, lives lost and relationships destroyed as a result of drug use”, the statistician general added.

“It has also contributed to several adverse public health conditions and increased criminal activities. Accordingly, it is time to put in place, comprehensive measures designed to tackle this growing problem before it becomes an even worse national challenge”, Kale said.

ANTHONIA OBOKOH

W

ellNewMe, along with 15 other innovative enterprises from across the continent of Africa, will present their innovation at the third edition of the prestigious Pitch@ Palace Africa event holding at St. James Palace, London in March, 2019.

The exciting start-ups will get an opportunity to demonstrate their businesses to an invited audience of global influencers who can help catapult them to the next level. Established by The Duke of York, in less than four years Pitch@Palace has helped nearly 300 businesses grow, with some now enjoying huge global success.

WellNewMe provides a patented online platform that measures and improves all the key drivers of well-being, health and productivity, spanning personal, emotional, health and work issues. It does this by using an algorithmic approach to determine the health risks of individuals using their medical histories and biometric screenings and then proffers advice to the individuals based on their health risks to developing non-communicable diseases (NCDs) such as hypertension, diabetes and cancer.

WellNewMe also measure stress and environmental safety risks in the workplace.

The Duke of York, Prince Andrew founder of Pitch@Palace, said: “As Pitch@Palace expands around the world, I am determined to encourage ambitious and talented sub-Saharan African entrepreneurs,manyofthemengineers from all disciplines, to make useoftheirskillstodevelopscalable solutions to local challenges.”

“Pitch@Palace Africa is focused on building on the strengths of the African continent to ensure responsiveness to global challenges and delivery of a more prosperous, secure, sustainable and fair future for all its citizens,” he added.

WellNewMe’s major goal is to help individuals live a long and normal healthy life by guiding them on making lifestyle changes to reduce the incidences of lost work days due to absenteeism and presenteeism, identifying workplace stressors as well as pinpointing negative traits that drain the overall energy of an organisation, all of which inhibit productivity.

As the only health services company in Nigeria that provides workplace health solutions targeted to identify organisational health issues supported by the requisite expertise with the aim of increasing productivity and invariably revenue and profitability; WellNewMe is well positioned to provide a service that is second to none.

ANTHONIA OBOKOH and ANI MICHAEL / Reporters. Email: obokoh.anthonia@businessdayonline.com I David Ogar, Graphics

Friday 15 February 2019

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Hotels Top BusinessDay Partner Hotels Novotel Port Harcourt Address: 3 Stadium Road Rumuomasi, Port Harcourt Rivers State, Tel: 0809 713 5734

Transcorp Hilton Abuja 1 Aguiyi Ironsi Street Maitama, Abuja Tel: +234-708-060-3000

Why hotels fail to hit Valentine sales target OBINNA EMELIKE

T

he Nigerian hospitality sector, which is just recovering from the January lull in business associated with the beginning of every year, is struggling to fill hotel rooms this valentine weekend.

The hope of the sector to boost sales with St. Valentine’s Day celebration package may be dashed as most would-be guests declined patronage on the account of the presidential elections, which is happening on February 16, 2019; and a Valentine weekend.

Most hotels are struggling to get 40 percent of their sales target this year as bookings decline, while some are witnessing lastminute cancelations.

Some hotel managers and sales executives are worried that despite the discounts on rooms and other offerings, patronage for the 2019 love season has been poor, as well as, occupancy rate, is dwindling to around 60 percent due to less activities by corporate and investors

who are postponing event until elections are peacefully over.

Comparing the situation now with this time last year, most of the managers said that improved sales from St. Valentine’s Day celebration package boosted the revenue target of the first quarter of 2018, but the reverse is the case this year.

“Usually, from the last week in January the sales team can ascertain the volume of the bookings and advise the kitchen and beverage sections on further preparations. But the booking is not impressive this year as the door is still open for booking till now”, Margret Ebie, a hotel sales executive, said.

She blamed the poor sales on the election, which falls on the Valentine weekend. “Valentine is on February 14, but most bookings are usually for the weekend of Friday to Sunday. The Saturday February 16 election makes it difficult for most guests to visit, especially those who want to vote or move around within the weekend because of restrictions on movement for the election”, she said.

In same vein, Martin Mtuli, food and beverage

manager of an Ikoyi-based three-star hotel in Lagos, explained that be yond less corporate bookings, individuals, especially expatriates are staying away from hotels now until after the elections.

“I am a Kenyan and we experience same thing in my countr y during any election year. Most people fear that there would be violence hence they stay away from hotels, visitors are staying back in their countries until after elections and the economy is slow. The poor patronage is expected, it is not new and we will overcome it soon”, Mtuli said.

Ebie, who hoped that the presidential election on February 16, 2019 would be peaceful, said the woe of hotels would be furthered if violence erupts after the elections. “The moment people hear there is a problem with the elections, they will further postpone their visits to the country and that means empty hotel rooms, poor revenue and gloom”, she said.

Ebie decried the fact that most hotels hardly meet their first quarter revenue target due to the lull in business and that violence or in-

conclusive elections would make it harder to breakeven.

Aderemi Oyekola, a hotel sales manager, stated that most hotels are not bothered about revenue projections now, especially for the first quarter because of the uncertainties of the elections outcome. She also lamented of booking cancelations by some would-be guests on the account of the advice by their companies to stay safe during the election, despite that they are not voting as foreigners here”, Oyekola said.

Ikem Onyeabo, a hotel owner, thinks that hotels are safer than residential places because of the security, steady supplies of necessities, exciting offerings and even evacuation plans in case of emergencies.

“It is better to insure your security with hotel trained security experts than rely on street guards who could easily be influenced with money due to their poor salary. So, if you are not voting, take advantage of the discounts and come in to enjoy Valentine”, Onyeabo urged.

However, the managers assured that the sector would rebound if the elections are peaceful and transition of power seamless.

Enjoy Valentine’s Day dinner at Four Point By Sheraton Lagos

T

he Four Points by Sheraton Lagos is adding sparkle and delight to Valentine’s Day with a bouquet of romantic treats, which include accommodation, lavish spa treatments and delectable culinary dishes that are perfect to celebrate the most romantic day of the year with a loved one.

If you are searching for the perfect Valentine’s Day

surprise to leave your loved one happily speechless, Four Points Lagos offers breathtaking experiences to make this day unforgettable,” said Jonathan Patterson, general manager of the hotel. “From its delicious meals and sweet treats, to relaxing spa treatments and romantic ambiance, guests can celebrate Valentine’s Day in a truly memorable way.”

The Valentine bouquet is geared towards rekindling guests’ love flames and bringing back all the nostalgic memories they share with their loved ones.

The hotel is in partnership with Martini to create the magical moments that will last for a lifetime.

In order to create the magic, there will be; red carpet and kissing booth at the lobby close to the restaurant, wel-

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Radisson Blu Hotel Ikeja #38/40 Isaac John St, Ikeja GRA100271, Ikeja Tel: +234-908-780 5555

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Protea Hotel (V/Island) Off Ajose Adeogun Street, V/ Island

come drinks for the couples at the lobby, heart shaped cape on every table, complimentary Polaroid photos for the couple, chocolate fountain and a silent movie night, which would hold on February 15, 2019.

The hotel general manager urged would-be guests to take advantage of the lifetime opportunity to wow their loved ones and impress their love on their hearts forever.

Gombe Jewel Hotel, 22, Njamena Street, off Aminu Kano crescent Wuse 2, Abuja.

Radisson Blu Anchorage Hotel 1A,Ozumba Mbadiwe,Victoria Island.

26

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At home with the self-taught filmmaker, business mogul OBINNA EMELIKE

W

hile the Nigerian film industry, better know n as Nollyw o o d, is reckoned among the top three global film industries, including the Amer ican Hollyw ood, and Indian Bollywood, there are people whose sacrifices from behind the scene have contributed immensely to the fastrising profile of Nigerian and African narratives out there.

Akin Omotosho, a Nigerian movie producer and director, who is based in South Africa, is one of the big names in the African movie landscape.

However, his story is interesting. In 1995, as an ambitious student, he made a decision at a drama school to become a filmmaker. Without a mentor, he started reading ever ything he could find about films and watching as many films as he could.

With the little knowledge he gained from the literature he read and films he watched, he set out to shoot his first amateur films using his classmates.

To d ay , t h e p rou d l y self-taught filmmaker has gone ahead to become a movie director and producer with many awards to his credit. His name

Akin Omotosho

truly rings bell in African movie industry, especially with his crowd funding business model for his films.

The self-taught filmmaker, who left Nigeria to South Africa in 1992 at 17 years when his father got a job at the University of the Western Cape, is good storyteller, producer and director of movies across several themes, cultures and times on the African continent.

His creative ingenuity is amazing, especially his ability to adapt movies to African realities as seen in ‘Tell Me Sweet Something’, a movie inspired by Love Jones, which also won him the Best Director Award in the Africa Magic Viewer’s Choice Awards 2016.

Recalling his encounter with the film industry, the director who owes his success today to his high school classmates who volunteered to be his

guinea-pig, says, “After graduation I got a cast role in a TV series and I used the money from that television series to fund my first professional short film called ‘The kiss of milk’.

That short film became my calling card when I moved to Johannesburg.

That short film got me an opportunity to make two short films: The Night Walker and The Caretaker”.

With the three short films under his belt,

Omotosho and a group of friends co-funded ‘God is African’, his first feature film shot in 2001. “Since then, I have directed a lot of episodic television programmes, two more shorts, two documentaries, produced six feature films and directed three more feature films”, he says.

For Omotosho, filmmaking is a marathon when you consider what a director goes through in bringing the vision to life.

“If you can imagine what goes into the preparation for a marathon (the stamina, the patience, the exhaustion) then you can imagine what the filmmaking team has to do in order to take something that started in someone’s creative mind, to be written on paper, to be funded (which takes years), to be cast, shot, edited, marketed and presented. You have to be ready to commit five years or more of your life to a project. That is an extra mile”, he explains.

Comparing the Nigerian and South African movie industries, the filmmaker who juggles and tells stories across the two countries, says, “I think both film industries are exciting and both have a lot to learn to from each other. It is great to see more collaboration between the two countries”.

He also recommends his crowd funding model to budding filmmakers across Africa saying that

every film has a cost and the challenge is to be able to make it and make your investors happy. “Tell Me Sweet Something” was funded by a team of crowd funders ; The National Film and Video Foundation, The Gauteng Film Commission, Mvest Media, Ladies And Gentlemen, Pana T V and the South African Department of Trade and Industry”.

Omotosho, who looks out for honesty when casting actors for roles, recognises that piracy as a big challenge worldwide, and supports all initiatives to end piracy.

However, his success so far did not come without challenges. For him, there were moments of doubt, but his approach is usually not let the doubt cripple the creative process. “Every film has its challenges.

In our case, there were two moments were we were not sure if we were going to make the film. Two major funders dropped within months of each other and it really seemed like the film was not going to be made. Fortunately, this is a team effort and along with the team we were able to recalibrate our process and we held a crowd funding evening to raise the additional funds”.

Omotosho is truly blessed to still be making films. When he thinks back to that young man on campus dreaming of telling stories, he thanks him.

to be children. The movie takes you on an emotional roller coaster of the loss of childhood innocence, the consequences of being in a forced, arranged marriage and the hopes and dreams of a future that is stolen from them.

The star studded movie showcases a menace in different parts of Africa and certain parts of Nigeria. Many have described bringing the movie to the discussion table through Omoni Oboli’s work of art

as a welcome development.

The movie screened again on February 10 and 11, 2019 at the festival.

Before now, Omoni Oboli has made other masterful works such as Being Mrs Elliot, First Lady, Wives on Strike, Mums at War and Okafor’s Law. The wife and mother has been making moves and gaining recognition in the industry.

This movie addresses what is happening in our society today and what can be done to fix them.

Omoni Oboli’s Wing of Dove thrills at Los Angeles Movie Festival

O

moni Oboli’s latest movie, Wing of Dove premiered at the cinemark Baldwin Hills and XD Theater, 4020 Marlton Ave Los Angeles California as part of the ongoing Pan African Film Festival in Los Angeles California this February to the audience’s delight. The Award winning actress and mother of three is absolutely one of the women to reckon with in the Nollywood and is ready to take the message of her new movie to every

corner of the world.

The new movie, ‘Wings of Dove’ addressed the issue of early marriage in the Nigerian society by highlighting the negative effects on its victims and even the society in general, and also emphasizing the importance of educating the girl child.

The movie is an emotionally charged story of two young Northern Nigerian girls who were married off to much older men at the age of 13 and 14 years but all they want is freedom

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Navigating Your Valentine’s Meal Business etiquette

Janet Adetu

I

s your business maximizing this Valentines Season?

Well it is the season again as they call it “Love is in the Air”. As Valentine’s Day is in a few day time. I understand many people that claim they have no time for Valentines but the season cannot go unnoticed it truly lingers all around you. The important thing to recognize is that it is the season to express appreciation, love, kindness, adoration and thankfulness to those who matters. As much as it may appear like just another day for some businesses this is the time their business booms extremely well.

Contrary to what some may think experiencing Valentine’s Day is not simply a couples affair it is also the time to appreciate clients and customers.

What is Valentine’s Day going to look like for you? Is it business as usual?

You may decide to have lunch or dinner with a VIP client or a loved one as the season is renowned for wining and dining all about town. Navigating the meal especially on this special day is an important skill to acquire.

Many business deals are sealed over

a meal, It has been said that the meal cultivates trust and credibility. Your polish is immediately identified in the way you dine.

Navigating the Valentine’s Meal Be Seated Once you have chosen the restaurant, or place to have lunch or dinner you will be guided to your table. Your may have a private meal with one person or many people that will determine the size of the table. In a business setting you are free to sit anywhere at the same time out of courtesy you may assist a female to sit. It is appropriate to make use of the napkin at this point and kick start a conversation.

Set Menu Depending on the nature of the place you have chosen to dine your table will be set with cutlery and table décor to create the perfect ambience. The arrangement of the cutlery should tell you what to expect during the meal experience. Your set menu indicates “A La Carte” you will have the choice of choosing your desired meal off the

menu card provided. Be mindful of your choice if you are not sure of what to expect. It is safer to ask the waiter to explain certain dishes or what the favourite dishes are on offer. Also ask

for the chefs menu of the day. Ensure to go through the menu choosing a starter, a main course and the dessert.

Finally watch your portions that will be sufficient for two or more guests.

Let the waiter repeat your order for confirmation.

First Course Your first course is an appetizer presented to whet the appetite. Usually inform of soup, salad or finger bites.

Remember you have the main course to eat so avoid over eating or choking on too much bread served with the starter. If you have opted to dine at a buffet setting refrain from going straight to the main course first or mixing everything on one plate. Intentionally whet your appetite by going to the starter section of the buffet set up.

Take a Sip It is expected that in between meals you will want to take a sip of something. Your drink will start with water, possibly some juice or a sparkling drink. Your choice of wine is a personal choice be it alcoholic or non- alcoholic. If waiter comes to serve you something to drink which you did not request for do not turn the glass down just politely refuse. Remember glasses are always on the right side so be careful not to take your neighbours glass.

plied when at the buffet setting.

‘

The important thing to recognize is that it is the season to express appreciation, love, kindness, adoration and thankfulness to those who matters.

Main Course This is where you will spend the largest part of your dining experience.

This is where you have the bulk of your conversations and appreciate your meal. Your main course should blend protein, carbohydrates and vegetables in decent proportions. With the set menu this is controlled, caution is ap-

Right of Refusal At times in restaurants where set menus prevail it is possible you may be served something you do not like or you have an allergy for. You may politely explain to the waiter and ask for an alternative if this information was not provided earlier. It is proper to eat what you like and leave what you do not like on the plate. It is always good to identify your allergies at the start of the meal.

Dessert Not everyone is a fan of dessert especially if they are trying to avoid excessive sweet desires. Select what you are comfortable with like ice cream, fruits or a simple slice of cake. Your dessert is not a replica main course, you are stepping down on the quantity to wrap up your meal. If you are not adventurous small portions of each from the buffet table is allowed but take with caution.

Toast Your toast can be given at the beginning of a meal or at the end. The toast is a welcome gesture to guests, to appreciate the cause of the gathering, to recognize people or declare good things moving forward. The person you are toasting to should always remain seated.

Wishing you a Happy Valentine’s Day and an enjoyable Valentines Meal!

Please share your experience with me by email: janet.adetu@ jsketiquetteconsortium.com Follow & Like us: @ janetadetu / @ jsketiquette

Movie Review of “THE UPSIDE”

Linda Ochugbua

F

or the comedy lovers, “The Upside” is here to not just thrill you but help you relax.

As usual if you have being following Kevin Hart for a few years now, you will agree with me that he hasn’t failed in releasing hilarious movies in January of every year since 2015. But this time around he wasn’t with Dwanye Johnson, he worked with Bryan Cranston.

I loved the movie because it made me laugh and also taught a few life lessons.

I am sure most people would enjoy this movie, nothing serious just something to unwind with.

The movie is based on a true life story, a unique comedy about a recently released ex-convict “Deli” (Kevin Hart) who suddenly became so closed to a paralyzed

billionaire “Phil” (Bryan Cranston).

It has similarities to the hit 2011 French film called “Intouchables” written by Jon Hartmere and directed by Neil Burger.

I loved the way the story transitioned from one scene to the other. To understand this movie you have to start from the very beginning, so you don’t get lost. I was also pleased at the way the movie ended, for me happy endings are important and help me feel better about a movie.

Kevin was a young man who was sent to jail for living a reckless life; a few years later, he was granted bail and was released on the basis that he will find a good job to take him off the street and be able to fend for his wife and son, who earnestly looked up to him. The truth was that he just initially wanted someone to sign his employment sheet and then return back to the streets, but this time the paralyzed employer “Phil” liked him, felt pity for him and wanted to genuinely help him by giving the job. Kevin initially didn’t want to take up the job, but when he heard the remunerations and benefits that came with it, he had no choice but to accept it.

At this point, the movie moved on quickly as Kevin had to learn on the job because he had no prior experience of care giving. He made everyone laugh so hard and every scene was hilarious as he always had something ridiculous to say or

do.

He had to be available for his employer 24/7, to give him all he needed - from a bath, to a shave, to feeding, cleaning and every other thing that needed to be done.

It was nice to see him adjust and survive, he is a typical example of the popular saying “What doesn’t kill you only makes you stronger”, the truth was that he became better on the job and they both became best friends, this friendship transformed Kevin’s life for good.

Verdict: The Upside gets an 8/10 on my scoreboard; it is a well acted movie with a simple storyline, pure drama and a bit of comedy.

If you are looking for a good way to unwind, then do make sure you catch up with this in the cinema, before it is taken down. Will I recommend this movie? Of course!

Movie Credit: Cast: Bryan Cranston, Kevin Hart, Nicole Kidman, Julianna Margulies, Aja Naomi, Tate Donovan and many more Genre: Comedy& Drama Director: Neil Burger Ratings: PG-13 (for some suggestive content and drug use) Written by: Jon Hartmere Runtime: 126 minutes Studio: STX Films Feel free to review any movie of your choice in not more than 200 words and share with via mail - linda@businessdayonline.com You also stand a chance to win a free movie ticket when you answer the question of the week on social media.

Linda Ochugbua @lindaochugbua

28

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INTERVIEW

‘Promoting African luxury is central to our objectives’ Abisola Kola-Daisi is the founder and CEO of FH Luxury. An astute entrepreneur, she was born in Lagos, Nigeria, and raised in Beverly Hills, California, where she earned a Bachelor of Science degree in Finance from California State University, Northridge in Los Angeles.

Her work experience has spanned various industries, including banking, oil and gas, and shipping. In 2012, she decided to follow her passion for fashion and founded FH Luxury, Nigeria’s leading luxury retailer strategically located in Lagos. mon thing we noticed was local consumers travelling abroad to buy luxury brands. From an economic perspective, this just did not feel right to us. We realised that by leveraging on our relationships, sourcing for these products and bringing them to our market, we could offer savings of both time and money and consequently add much-needed value to our customers. In addition to bringing the international luxury brands closer to home, we also considered the importance of promoting local luxury brands. Through Florence H, our flagship store, we have been able to solve some of these problems. The Luxury Lifestyle Market is part of our efforts to do even more.

Why are platforms such as The Luxury Lifestyle Market important in empowering local luxury brands?

Often the difference between the well-known luxury brands and those less well known is brand exposure. The Luxury Lifestyle Market is consequently our attempt at creating a credible international platform, to give African brands the required brand exposure. This is why we seek to partner with corporate sponsors who identify with our objectives. For example, I make a note of attending the GTB fashion week yearly and it is impressive to see how much local manufacturers and service providers in the fashion industry have benefited from the exposure that the platform provides. The luxury industry as distinguished from the mass market also requires the exposure that we seek to provide with The Luxury Lifestyle Market.

Africa’s wealth class is rapidly growing. How is The Luxury Lifestyle Market tapping into this new boom of consumer spending?

Undoubtedly the expanding African middle class is driving growth across the sector. I understand from research reports that sub-Saharan Africa is second only to Asia in terms of the size of growth of luxury consumer markets. The report also noted that international luxury goods retailers will have to develop a sophisticated but uniquely African approach to reach and satisfy the growing demand for luxury goods in this segment. I think this is where The Luxury Lifestyle Market and indeed African luxury brands can really add value.

The tradition of shopping abroad among Africans who desire luxury brands is still common. How is The Luxury Lifestyle Market and Florence H Luxury helping encourage shoppers to buy luxury African brands?

There will always be people

Abisola Kola-Daisi

who go on holiday away from the continent and for whom shopping is a part of the experience. But at Florence H Luxury, we have created a shopping experience for international luxury brands that is at par with standards internationally. We are also promoting African luxury brands as an option to African consumers.

Why do you think luxury brands are weary about expanding their markets to Africa?

In the past the primary concerns for international luxury brands were with regards to their brand protection and the counterfeiting of their products. In addition to this, there was also the perception that there was no market for their products in Africa.

I read recently in a premier consulting firm’s annual report on the luxury market, that Africa provides longer-term growth opportunity for luxury brands. I think this is reflective of a changing attitude toward the African market.

What are some of the positive signs Florence H Luxury has shown about the growth of the luxury market in Africa?

I think we are making good progress as far as bridging the infrastructural gap is concerned.

We are always pushing ourselves, and conscious of the fact that until we see the market as how we imagine it, we can and must do more. The Luxury Lifestyle Market adds value from the perspective of creating awareness for African luxury brands and telling the

African luxury story in a way that is starting to resonate with our growing consumer base, home and abroad. It is also a transfer of our knowhow through capacity building, mentorship and training programmes. But ultimately, I think that the infrastructural challenges in the African luxury market will be bridged through a concerted effort from a variety of stakeholders. Financiers on the one hand, African luxury brands on the other, with platforms like ours to help with the navigation of the complex terrain that is the luxury market.

Local brands and products

‘

The African luxury consumer is discerning and looks out for pieces that speak to their individuality and hence, want to be seen to be very fashion-conscious

‘

F

H Luxury commenced business with twelve brands, ranging from Giuseppe Zanotti, Rene Caovilla, Sophia Webster, Sergio Rossi, Yeezy, Paula Cademartori, Beneditta Bruzziches, Sebastian to Oscar Tiye. It has evolved to become Nigeria’s leading luxury lifestyle space for men, women and lifestyle. FH Luxury retails high-quality leather goods, accessories and apparel and is positioning itself to become Africa’s foremost luxury boutique.

In an interview with Ifeoma Okeke, Kola-Daisi speaks on how Florence H Luxury and The Luxury Lifestyle Market are making Africa a new frontier for luxury.

What role does The Luxury Lifestyle Market play in growing the African luxury market?

Beyond just presenting consumers with a great shopping experience, The Luxury Lifestyle Market is an event we created as an attempt to promote and familiarise the African market with the concept of luxury. We carefully identified and continue to identify the need to curate luxury African and international brands. We painstakingly surveyed the market and what we found are African brands that embody the concept of luxury with unique, yet excellent craftsmanship that is timeless and has a strong heritage. Promoting African luxury is central to our objectives and this is what influenced our conceptualisation and eventual implementation of The Luxury Lifestyle Market. We are of course also keen to use the forum to provide opportunities for capacity building to African brands; to ensure the production and branding of their products and services aligns with international practices.

What do you feel defines a luxury brand?

I always say that luxury is a complex, multifaceted concept.

But there are certain considerations that influence the qualification of a brand as luxury. Does it reflect timelessness, legacy, heritage and tradition? Is it unique?

Is it exclusive? Does it convey superior competencies when you consider the craftsmanship involved? A luxury brand answers ‘yes’ to all these questions.

How has The Luxury Lifestyle Market helped bridge the gap between consumer demand for luxury and supply of international and local luxury brands?

A central motivation for starting The Luxury Lifestyle Market (TLLM) was to bridge this gap that we identified between the demands for luxury in Africa and the supply of international and local luxury brands. Prior to The Luxury Lifestyle Market, a com-

in Africa are struggling to define themselves as “luxury”. Why do you think this is?

I consider luxury as a much broader concept. The concept of luxury can be reflected in other consumer products, in culture, in businesses, in lifestyle choices. For me it is a concept that permeates every part of our society.

Infrastructure is a key issue affecting the African luxury market. How is The Luxury Lifestyle Market challenging this problem?

Yes, it has been challenging, but we consider this challenge as reflective of the fact that the market is still growing and also because there are not yet as many reputable African luxury brands as you might find internationally.

Our most recent Luxury Lifestyle Market event on the 9th and 10th of February this year was a success and indicative that this problem is being solved.

People often conflate fashion and luxury business models.

How do they differ?

I think the African luxury consumer is changing, but increasingly becoming more aware. They want a brand that reflects their identity and that is unique to them. They want one-of-a-kind, hard-to- find items or experiences that no one else has; and they want to find it in an environment that isn’t replicated anywhere else!

How has The Luxury Lifestyle Market curated niche items for its targeted audience?

Based on the success of our most recent event this year, we noticed that our target audience appreciated an experience that caters to their individual needs.

Whether its beauty, fashion or home interiors, we curated brands that reflect what the customer wants.

What role does The Luxury Lifestyle Market play in growing the African luxury market?

The Luxury Lifestyle Market (TLLM) plays an important role in encouraging local brands to aspire to be a part of this specially curated community. As seen at our most recent event this year, we brought together international and local luxury brands as we position Africa as a key player in the next frontier for the luxury market.

How does the African luxury consumer differ from others and what do they look out for?

The African luxury consumer is discerning and looks out for pieces that speak to their individuality and hence, want to be seen to be very fashion-conscious. Branding, originality, finesse, craftsmanship, and authenticity are some of the important attributes of the African luxury consumer.

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AgriBusinessInsight Market Insights

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i g e r i a ’ s agricultural exports are likely to either continue being treated with suspicion or be out rightly rejected as long as certain international standards and best practices are not observed in agricultural production.

Vincent Isegbe, directorgeneral, Nigerian Agricultural Quarantine Service (NAQS), in an interview, has described the inability of stakeholders across the agriculture value chain, to meet the relevant sanitary and phytosanitary requirements applicable in the destination countries for agro-expor ts as the most serious impediment to Nigeria’s participation in foreign trade.

Isegbe explained this is because many countries p ro h i b i t t h e i m p o r t o f produce with mycotoxin contamination, high pesticide residue, microbial contamination, sloppy packaging and labelling. This according to him, causes Nigeria to lose huge revenue, ser vicing narrow export market options.

“It is our goal to make Nigerian agricultural produce acceptable everywhere in

Vincent Isegbe, director general, NAQS

the world,” he said. “That way, we will earn more foreign exchange from more destination countries.”

A number of agricultural products of Nigerian origin have either been banned in the past, or currently still banned in some countries.

In mid-2015 beans, sesame seeds, melon seeds, dried fish and meat, peanut chips of Nigerian origin were banned from being imported into Europe. While the ban on others has since been lifted, that of beans remains, because of high pesticide

residue from a chemical known as Dichlorvos. Also, the United States placed a ban on smoked catfish and all fish products from Nigeria, for failure to provide information on fish exports through a self reporting tool.

According to Isegbe, given the need to empower farmers, off takers and exporters to comply with the standards of the export market, NAQS is implementing a program of backward integration for better export products. This intervention codenamed “Export Improvement

Initiative” is tailored to ensure that all relevant activities performed from the fields where the prospective export crops are cultivated up to the point of shipment are consistent with the standard conditions and protocols. As part of this measure, Isegbe says the agency has been interfacing with stakeholders to educate and train them on export quality criteria for agricultural produce.

The highlights of these enlightenment workshops and campaigns are the instruction of stakeholders on Global Good Agricultural Practice (GAP) and the formation of self-regulating associations among the different commodity producer constituencies. Through this strategy, NAQS says it is addressing the fundamental inhibitors of agricultural export and widening the scope for participation of everyday Nigerians in the export business.

As the Agency tasked with the promotion of export of agricultural produce, NAQS says it is leading the government’s drive to stem the tide of the rejection of some Nigerian agricultural produce in foreign markets due to quality defects.

The article continues in Digital edition and online

FAO Food Price Index rises in January

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lobal food prices began the year on a buoyant note, as the Food And Agriculture Organisation (FAO) Food Price Index averaged 164.8 points in January 2019, up 1.8 percent from the previous month.

A sharp rebound in dairy price quotations and firmer prices of palm and soy oils drove the increase, the United Nations agency said this week.

The Food Price Index, an indicator of the monthly changes in international prices of a basket of food commodities, was still 2.2 percent below its January 2018 level.

The FAO Cereal Price Index averaged 168.1 points in January, up marginally from December. Prices of the major grains were generally firm amid tightening export supplies and robust world demand.

The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index rose 4.3 percent from the previous month, led by palm oil values responding to a seasonal production decline in the major producing countries.

International soy oil prices also rose on the back of robust import demand for South American supplies.

The FAO Dairy Price Index rose 7.2 percent from

December, reversing seven months of falling prices.

Limited export supplies due to strong internal demand - form Europe were the primary factor behind this, along with anticipated seasonal tightening of export availability from Oceania in the coming months.

The FAO Sugar Price Index rose 1.3 percent, a move largely influenced by the appreciation of the currency (Real) of Brazil, the world’s largest exporter, against the U.S. dollar.

The FAO Meat Price Index was almost unchanged from December. The January value was calculated assuming stable meat prices in the United States of America, where official data were not available due to the government shutdown.

Elsewhere, international price quotations for bovine, pig and poultry meat remained steady, while ovine meat prices declined in step with ample exportable supplies in Oceania.

How agritechnology, not just agriculture can define Nigeria’s economic transformation.

Technology has ushered unprecedented levels of growth in every industry of the world and although some

countries are more impacted than others, no country can afford to be spared in this wave.

We have had to question how we do the things we do; if there is a better way to do it, predict what results to expect, and improve on the results we get each and every time.

That is the predicament of technology; always seeking for a better, faster way to achieve the same results.

Although technology has impacted several industries around the world, we are yet to experience and pursue to its full effect, its impact on Nigerian agriculture.

The reason agriculture and technology or ‘agritechnology’ piques our interest is not farfetched.

Output trends going forward In its latest Cereal Supply and Demand Brief, also published this week, FAO lifted the world’s 2018 cereal production estimate to 2 611 million tonnes, reflecting upward revisions of maize, wheat and rice.

Production prospects for wheat are positive for 2019, with the early outlook pointing to significant rebounds in the European Union and the Russian Federation.

Prospects for maize,

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Failure to meet sanitary, phytosanitary requirements limit Nigeria’s role in foreign trade Stories by CALEB OJEWALE Twiiter: @calebtinolu

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soon to be harvested in the Southern Hemisphere, are generally strong in Argentina and Brazil, while dry weather has adversely affected plantings and yield prospects in South Africa.

FAO raised its estimate of world cereal utilization in the 2018/19 season to 2 657 million tonnes, which would represent a 1.7 percent increase from the 2017/18 level. The use of grains to feed livestock is expected to increase, with Australia needing more wheat due to the impact of dry weather on grazing pastures and China, Mexico and the U.S. expanding the use of coarse grains to an all-time high.

As utilization is foreseen to outpace output, world cereal stocks are projected to fall by 45 million tonnes, or 5.6 percent, from their record-high opening levels.

This would result in the world stocks-to-use ratio for cereals declining to 28.5 percent, down from a nearly twodecade high of 30.8 percent in 2017/18.

International trade in all cereals will likely approach 416 million tonnes in the 2018/19 marketing season, marginally below the 2017/18 record volume, according to FAO’s latest forecast.

How agritechnology, not just agriculture can define Nigeria’s economic transformation

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e c h n o l o g y has ushered unprecedented levels of growth in every industry of the world and although some countries are more impacted than others, no country can afford to be spared in this wave.

We have had to question how we do the things we do; if there is a better way to do it, predict what results to expect, and improve on the results we get each and every time. That is the predicament of technology; always seeking for a better, faster way to achieve the same results.

Although technology has impacted several industries around the w orld, w e are yet to experience and pursue to its full effect, its impact on Nigerian agriculture.

The reason agriculture and technology or ‘agritechnology’ piques our interest is not farfetched.

In 1999, agriculture contributed 41 per cent to Nigeria’s GDP and 25.52 per cent in 2018. This is a major decline from the 65.7 per cent it contributed in 1957. Agriculture also employs over 70 per cent of the labour force in Nigeria.

Our negligence and or slow adaptation of agritechnology may also be an indication of where our interests lie, an ignorance of the agriculture industry or our lack of faith in how agriculture can revamp our economy. An average urban-dwelling Nigerian has not been to an actual farm, is not aware of agriculture policies, and does not have top-of-themind awareness when it comes to agriculture and agricultural practices.

This behemoth of an industry however is not one to ignore. If agriculture, without the use of advanced technology contributed that much to Nigeria’s economy, then we can do even more with Agritechnology but we need to adapt fast. We need to open our mind to new possibilities, embrace change and where necessary lead the change.

The world is facing a global population expansion and our current methods cannot keep up. According to the United Nations, Nigeria’s population will grow to 398 million by the year 2050.

That is twice the current population of about 190 million, that we are already struggling to feed.

As we think of exploring agritechnology to solve hunger and food security, let us not limit it to Nigeria or Africa. Let us aim to be a global player. Like the words of the legendary motivational speaker Les Brown, “Shoot for the moon, even if you miss it, you will land among the stars.”

The good news is agritechnology is making what we once thought was impossible possible.

The possibilities arise as a result of the breakthroughs that have been made in Artificial Intelligence, Big data, 3D printing, soil research, cross breeding technology, plant genetics, and more.

With the power of the internet, millions of people can now be connected with a single device, we can spread information and even record actions.

Data: Agritechnology i s p rov i d i n g u s w i t h important data that will b e u s e f u l a c ro s s t h e agriculture value chain. In the past, it was difficult to calculate how much plants was grown, how much was lost to diseases and even study growth patterns.

Entire rows of plants are missed during fertilizers sprays, leading to the loss of these crops, and there was no way to measure just how much was lost to these inefficiencies.

Without accurate data, it is impossible to make calculated improvements, just guesswork. Several African startups are already generating data insights using machine learning, and sensors to capture soil and farm data.

P r o m o t i n g new trends and o c c u p a t i o n s : As it stands, so many traditional industries are saturated especially, with the rise of automation, which is leading to so many jobs being threatened. We can choose how to respond to this enormous change - either by being fearful and slow adopters of new technology or to embrace this change and start evolving.

Contributed by Hannah Edia, a Content Developer and SEO Strategist at Farmcrowdy. When she is not writing, she enjoys working out. Check her out on Instagram at @ trainwithhannah

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African Development Bank President Adesina confident of “very promising future” for continent

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he African Development Bank is expecting a growth of 4 per cent this year and 4.1 percent in 2020, as the bank expresses optimism that the continent has a promising future ahead. “ The future of our continent is looking very promising indeed,” said Akinwumi Adesina, president, African Development Bank Group, in an address to diplomats at a lunch this week in Abidjan.

Adesina referred to the Bank’s recent flagship publication, the African Economic Outlook 2019, which noted that the recovery in commodity prices is driving domestic demand and infrastructure investment, while real Africa’s GDP continued to improve in 2018 to 4.1 per cent. The Bank expects growth of 4 per cent this year and 4.1 per cent in 2020.

Economic opportunities in Africa are generating considerable interest globally. For example, AfDB says the agreement in March 2018 establishing the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) will create the largest free trade area in the world. The CFTA will provide an unprecedented framework with the capacity to increase trade by at least 100 per cent in Africa.

“The African Development Bank is at the centre of the actions taken to ensure the success of the continental free-trade area.

We have invested over one billion dollars to support the financing of trade in Africa,” Adesina said.

The Bank, whose triple-A rating with stable outlook has been reconfirmed by the four major global rating agencies, has also invested $1 billion in Afreximbank, including $650 million in credit lines for trade finance and $350 million in insurance.

The free movement of people on the continent is another important driver of development. “We need to break down all barriers that impede the free movement of people across the continent, especially that of workers, because this is vital for

Akinwumi Adesina

promoting investment,” Adesina said.

In its report on intraAfrican investment, the African Development Bank emphasised the significant increase in cross-border investments – $12 billion last year, up from $2 billion in 2010.

Under the G20 Compact with Africa, the Bank has worked with the World Bank and the IMF to provide assistance to African countries, particularly to improve company regulations and the business environment.

“Africa will not develop through aid, but through investment”, said Adesina.

This is described as part of the reason the African Development Bank, with its partners, launched the Africa Investment Forum (AIF), in Johannesburg, South Africa last November, which it claims secured investment interest in 49 deals across Africa worth over $38 billion in just two days.

The African Development Bank also says it continues to invest in infrastructure to connect countries and improve their competitiveness.

It has provided $16 million to the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) for the preparation of feasibility studies for the LagosAbidjan corridor. It has also funded 1000 kilometres of road between Addis Ababa and Mombasa, which has increased trade fivefold between Ethiopia and Kenya.

The Bank was the lead lender for the construction of the historic Senegambia bridge linking Gambia and Senegal, which opened on 21 January 2019. And the Bank’s investment portfolio in Côte d’Ivoire has tripled in the last three years, reaching $1.8 billion in 2018.

The Bank is taking a lead role in the “Technologies for African Agricultural Transformation” (TAAT) initiative, which seeks to accelerate the dissemination of agricultural technologies throughout the continent, not only to improve yields, but also to fight against the consequences of global warming and against pests, such as Fall Armyworm. “The crucial point for the economic development of Africa is

Friday 05 February 2019

that we have to radically transform our agriculture,” Adesina declared.

The Bank’s High 5 p r i o r i t i e s a re a l re a d y p ro d u c i n g s i g n i f i c a n t impacts across the continent, said Adesina. In 2018, 4.5 million people are reported to have been connected to electrical grids. Nearly 20 million more people have access to improved agricultural technologies.

Industrial investments in the private sector have benefited 1.1 million people. Some 14 million people have gained access to improved transport services, while another 8 million people have benefited from better access to water and sanitation.

These impacts, AfDB says encourage it to redouble its support for economic and social development in Africa.

“We need to achieve universal access to electricity.

We need to help Africa to become self-sufficient in food. We need to achieve a fully integrated continent. We need to industrialize Africa and improve the quality of life for its people,” Adesina concluded.

FAO, ACT sign MoU to deepen farm mechanisation in Africa

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he Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the African Conservation Tillage (ACT) Network have signed a Memorandum of Understanding to encourage greater access for small-scale farmers to sustainable farm mechanization, such as two-wheeled tractors and other labour-saving machines.

The partnership also seeks to link the use of farming machinery to Conservation Agriculture which is a farming system that promotes minimum soil disturbance and the planting of complementary plant species to enhance biodiversity and natural biological processes.

In Africa, smallholder farmers use their own muscle power, such as hand hoes, for around 65 percent of the total labour needed for land preparation, with draught animal power accounting for 25 percent and enginepowered machines just 10 percent. In South Asia by comparison, human muscle power is used for 30 percent of land preparation work, while engine power represents 40 percent, and in Latin America and the Caribbean engine power is used for half of all land preparation.

Saidi Mkomwa,

executive secretary of the African Conservation Tillage Network (ACT) said at the signing, that the agreement is an important part of ACT and FAO’s work towards the adoption of sustainable agricultural mechanization across Afr ica which has the potential to transform the lives and livelihoods of millions of smallholder farmers. Massive adoption of Sustainable Agriculture, anchored in commercial, environmental and socioeconomic sustainability, will significantly contribute to the attainment of the African Union’s Vision 2 5 x 2 5 o f t h e Ma l ab o Declaration and Agenda 2063 - The Africa We Want, he said.

“One of the ways in which we can achieve sustainable agricultural production in Africa is through the adoption of Conservation Agriculture and more appropriate me chanization,” said Bukar Tijani, FAO assistant dire ctor-general who heads FAO’s Agriculture and Consumer Protection Department. “This partnership for Africa will be a platform to bring together stakeholders from the private sector, farmers’ groups, civil s ociety, agriculture ministries and beyond to collaborate to achieve our vision of a Zero Hunger world,” he added.

Failure to meet sanitary, phytosanitary...

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ccording to Is egbe, s ome of NAQS’ efforts in mainstreaming best practices are yielding desired rewards. Due to increased knowledge and adaptation to guidelines, Nigeria was able to export1,983 containers of Hibiscus to Mexico, within the first 9 months

of 2017; with earnings of $35 million.

“Our mission is to catalyze the harnessing of the export potentials of Nigerian agricultural resources,” Isgebe said.

He explained the agency recently conducted a crop pest survey on pigeon pea, sorghum and groundnut.

The result of the pigeon

pea survey according to him, has paved a way for Nigeria to penetrate the $100 billion pigeon pea market of India. In the same vein, the crop pest survey on sorghum has opened the door for Nigeria to export forage sorghum to China. A local company is expected to ship out the first batch of

its consignment in the first quarter of this year.

In addition to t h e t ra d i t i o na l ag ro export items, NAQS has also identified underutilized but high premium emerging agro-commodities such as sesame, soya bean, cinnamon, pigeon pea, sugar cane, honey and

snail that will revolutionize Nigeria’s non-oil export business. The agency says it plans to launch in the coming weeks, “Export Certification Value Chain ( E C V C ) ” f o r O n i o n s, Garlic, Honey, Cow horns/ hooves, Sunflower, Nsukka Yellow Pepper, Sesame, Gum Arabic and Tumeric.

ECVC details the export

eligibility standards for the respective items and outlines the actionable instructions that stakeholders have to adhere to for their produce to pass NAQS inspection and certification tests which are preconditions for issuance of the phytosanitary certificate (i.e export permit).

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Shell inaugurates cluster development boards for Assa North Gas project …to spend N1bn in communities over 5-yrs

IDRIS UMAR MOMOH, Benin

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EFEGADIRIM MADU, Port Harcourt

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hell Petroleum Development Company (SPDC) Tuesday inaugurated cluster development boards (CDBs) for its multi-billiondollar Assa North Gas development project in Imo State, a major game-changer in Nigeria’s energy sufficiency for power generation and industrialization.

Igo Weli, Shell’s general manager external relations said the inauguration of the CDBs came after a series of structured discussions and negotiations with all stakeholders to the Assa North Gas development project.

Weli, who was represented

by Chibuzor Anyim, said the CDBs are made up of principal officersoftheCommunityTrusts from the 11 communities of the Assa North Gas development project, and would have the responsibility for implementing a GlobalMemorandumofUnderstanding (GMOU) established for the project.

The Anglo-Dutch oil giant recently made a Final Investment Decision (FID) on the estimated $3.6 billion gas project.

This was followed by signing of a Global Memorandum of Understanding (GMOU) with the project’s host communities in Ohaji-Egbema local government area of Imo State, with huge gas deposits.

The cluster development boards members were drawn from Avu, Umuapu, Obitti, Ohoba and Obosima were inaugurated by Jones Uzoka, commissioner, Ministry of Niger Delta Affairs, after they were

Imo State Government’s Commissioner for Niger Delta Ministry, Jones Uzoka (with walking stick) at the inauguration of the Ohaji-Egbema Cluster Development Board for the Assa North Gas Development Project in Imo State. The commissioner is flanked (from far left) SPDC’s External Relations Manager, Land East, Chibuzor Anyim; SPDC Construction Manager, Ucheoma Nwosu; NNPC-NAPIMS’ Public Affairs (representing the Group General Manager) Tolu Derin-Adefuwa; Imo State Commissioner for Niger Delta Affairs, Jones Uzoka; SPDC Assa North Project Manager, Abimbola Tijani; NNPC-NAPIMS Gas Division, Abba Jema; SPDC Senior Business Advisor, Letty Chukwueke; Imo State Government’ Director of Legal Affairs, Ministry of Niger Delta, Obiageli Amadi-Obi, and SPDC ER Adviser on Domestic Gas, Meshack Asomba.

led to swear an oath of commitment to effective implementation of the CDBs by Obiageli Amadi-Obi, director of legal affairs in the same ministry.

Weli said the GMOU is a proven wining approach developed in 2006 by SPDC Joint Venture (JV) partners (made up of NNPC, Shell, Total, and NAOC) adopted across the oil company’s operational areas.

It is a community-led sustainable development interface management model that puts the communities in the driving seat in setting development priorities and implantation of

programs and projects to meet their needs.

Meanwhile, the Shell external relations general manager announced that SPDC Joint Venture partners (made up of NNPC, Shell, Total and NAOC) was committing N1 billion funding for community development over the next five years.

He said the Assa North Gas project emphasizes Shell’s unshaken commitment to Nigeria both now and in the future, and would continue to explore other areas of support for the expansion of domestic gas supply, continue to make

investments under the right conditions.

He said the Assa North Gas project would be a major gamechanger in Nigeria’s quest for energy sufficiency and economic growth.

SPDC JV has been a leader in providing opportunities for Nigerians in the oil and gas sector; and expressed happiness that the Assa North Gas development project has deliberate Nigerian and Community Content strategy in its operations, creating vast opportunities for Nigerian firms in engineering, procurement and construction

(EPC) contracts; immense employment and sub-contacting opportunities for workers and local contractors in the project area. Other inherent benefits include opportunities for capacity development initiatives, knowledge transfer and human capital development, he said.

Meanwhile, Uzoka, the Niger Delta Affairs commissioner, Imo State, charged the Assa gas project host communities to exhibit cooperation, commitment and honesty in implanting the GMOU, so as to bring about great economic transformation of the areas.

UNICEF partners with Enugu state to develop 10-year education plan REGIS ANUKWUOJI, Enugu

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he United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) is partnering with the Enugu State government in developing a 10-year state education plan that would provide a sustainable plan for the improvement of education service delivery for the state.

Speaking at a one-day stakeholders forum to endorse, lunch and disseminate the state education sector plan, organised by Enugu ministry of Education, in collaboration with UNICEF, Ibrahim Conteh, the chief of UNICEF Field Office, Enugu, said that his organization’s engagement with the

state ministry of Education was to support them in developing sector plans based on a lot of works that was on the back ground with a situation analysis to identify some weakness, some challenges and see how they could be addressed.

“The main purpose of the meeting was actually to hold consultations with stake holders to review the plan and see the applicability and produce a final working document for the state in the next ten years,” he said.

According to him the state was doing well in education, hence it was not a priority state for UNICEF interventions for the last Country Program in

Education. “We have to prioritise because the resources are limited. There are states and local governments that have bigger problems when you come to education,” he noted.

Conteh explained that UNICEF developed interest in the development of the education sector plan because UNICEF is an organization that takes care of welfare of children. “When we talk about children, it is not just about an aspect of a child’s welfare, we look at every aspect of the child, including basic education. This is why we are interested in supporting the government.

The state commissioner for Education, Uche Ezeh com-

mended the UN agency for its assistance and interventions in various sectors in the state. He said that UNICEF’s assistance was to ensure that the state develops education sector plan that would be implementable, because the focus of the state government was to develop an education system where every child and citizen will have access to quality and affordable education.

“Our intension is to develop this plan which UNICEF has helped us to develop that will guide our actions in the education sector. In this plan, we have step-by-step package. In the implementation of our package with measurable indicators that will enable us to

Auchi MFB shareholders’ fund increases to N195.9m in 2017

see what we have achieved at every stage of our movement,” the commissioner said.

He said the plan would help the ministry reposition education in the next 10 years to ensure that the state has an education system that would produce the kind of citizens that are productive, selfreliant; and can stand on their own. He pointed out that the importance of education is to produce functional citizens.

“We are pleased that UNICEF has come to partner with us to see that we achieve our vision where every citizen of Enugu State will have the kind of education that will help him/ her survive in this 21st century, Ezeh said.

he authorities of Auchi Microfinance Bank Limited(AMFB) saysthe bank’s shareholdersfundincreasedfrom N173.4 million in 2016 financial year to N195.9 million in 2017.

Hassan Momodu, chairman, board of directors of the financial institution made the disclosure during the 20th and 21st annual general meetings of the bank ended 2016 and 2017 financial years respectively in Auchi at the weekend.

Momodu who said the increased in the shareholders fund was an indication of prudent management of resources even in the face of dwindling income, however, attributed the delayed in the annual general meetings to the late receipts of the audited accounts of the bank to the re-organization in the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) approvals of audited accounts of microfinance banks.

He also put the bank’s gross earnings at N117.6 million in the year under review against N123.9 million in 2016, representing five percent decrease; while 2015 earnings were N122.690 million.

He attributed the deceased in gross earnings in the 2017 financial year to sharp decrease in the pricing of investment placement as a result of recession and also a drop in other income because of poor loan repayments.

The board chairman, who expressed optimism, that the 2018 financial accounts will be better than that of year 2017 noted that the bank has continually improved economic empowermenttomicro,smallandmedium enterprises by providing financial and advisory services tailored towards their businesses.

“Your bank has been instrumental in financing skills acquisition centres, infrastructural development among others to enhance grassroots development and has had the good fortune of being at the top chain of Microfinance banks in Edo state impacting on MSME’s in your community and its environs.

“The bank is poised in the coming years to provide innovative ways to serve our customers’ needs and we are harnessing IT to provide convenient, cost effective and secured ways to access our services online”,he said.

The shareholders, however, approved a bonus of 15 percent dividend per share in the year under review to enable the bank to shore up its share capital while earnings per share was 17 kobo and return on investment was 11 percent as against earnings per share of 20 kobo and return on investment of 15 percent for 2016 financial year.

He however, appealed to shareholders and the general public that are indebted to the bank to immediately pay up in order to reduce the institution’s yearly provisioning and improve profitab

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CACs: One of measures to grow economy, food security - CBN UDOKA AGWU, Umuahia

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entral Bank of Nigeria (CBN) says it has established Commercial Agriculture Credit Scheme (CACs) in collaboration with the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development as one of the measures to increase production as well as stimulate the growth of the nation’s economy.

M.A. Olaitan, director, Development Finance Department, CBN, disclosed this in Umuahia at the flagoff ceremony of a workshop organised by Abia State government in collaboration with the CBN on ‘SME Development Projects.’

Olaitan said at the wake of the global crises of 2007 and 2008 that emanated from the United States’

sublime mortgage market collapse which triggered severe, long lasting consequences for both global and domestic financial market, CBN introduced some quantitative measures to ease liquidity squeeze that followed.

He said the CACs, which was established in 2009 was a sub-component of the Federal Government of Nigeria Commercial Agriculture Development Programme (CADP) which was financed from proceeds of N200 billion seven- year bond raised CBN from Debt Management Office (DMO) adding that the scheme ended in 2015 and has now been extended to 2025.

Olaitan, whose address was delivered by Veronica Aqua, the branch manager of Umuahia CBN, disclosed that objective of the scheme was to fast track

development of Agricultural sector by providing long term credit facilities to Commercial Agricultural Enterprises at a single digit interest rate, enhance food security by increasing food supply, reduce cost of credit in agricultural production to enable farmers exploit the vast potentials of the sector, provide input for industrial sector on sustainable basis as well as generate employment.

He commended the Abia State government for formulating policies, schemes and programmes to support the Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) sub-sector as a viable engine of sustainable and inclusive growth.

Governor Okezie Ikpeazu, in his speech said with the programme coming on board, his administration was set exploit all the oppor-

tunities therein.

He disclosed that the state had comparative advantage in SMEs in Nigeria, saying, “We started the campaign for made in Nigeria and also canvassed for the support of SMEs and within a short period the programme has started paying off. Every Abian and Nigerian is now proud of Made In Aba.” The governor, who was represented by his deputy, Ude Oko-Chukwu, noted that Federal Government had equally recognised Abia as the capital SMEs in Nigeria adding that any state or nation that wants to grow its economy of poverty must encourage SMEs. “For Direct Foreign Investment, Aba ranks 3rd, after Lagos and Kano. In no distantant time, the GDP of Abia will be one of the highest in Nigeria,” the Governor enthused.

L-R: Agnes Lutukai, head, department of professional practice, KPMG; Mathew Akinlade, president ,Nobel Shareholders Solidarity Association; Tola Adeyemi, partner/head, audit services, KPMG, and Okechukwu Usim, consultant physician/cardiologist, Reddington Hospital, at the KPMG Audit Committee Seminar in Lagos yesterday.

Pic by Pic by Pius Okeosisi

Law in tear: Law scholar raises alarm, says Nigerians must vote out ‘Lego-Nihilism’ IGNATIUS CHUKWU

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law scholar and researcher has raised alarm, saying research has revealed that Nigeria is exactly at the take-off point of Hitler’s Germany when the judiciary was destroyed in the name of fighting corruption. He has thus called for mass action through votes on Saturday to save Nigeria.

According to Cyprian Edward-Ekpo, author of an upcoming book based on a research work, evidence shows a striking pattern with what happened in Germany during Hitler’s early days when anti-corruption was launched.

The author holds a doctorate degree in law and heads a law firm in Wuse,

Abuja, called Law Icons Office. He is the Registrar, International Institute for Humanitarian $ Environmental Law; the Principal Partner/ Dean of Research, Multi-Intelligence Company (Legal Consultants & Administrators), Abuja, Nigeria; and the Proterm Director, Institute of Law Research and Development of United Nations, Washington DC, USA. Addressing newsmen in Port Harcourt, Rivers State capital, Wednesday evening, February 13, 2019, EdwardEkpo said there is cause for alarm and fear in the land.

He said the research has led to the book titled: ‘Law in Tears; Lego-Nihilism and the Systematic Decimation of Judicial Supremacy in Nigeria’.

His introduction says, “The book invokes a ger-

minating experience of the present Nigeria, which, led by the persona-leadership eccentricity, tends to confound the base-approach of justice system and trammels judicial practice to fearsome prejudicial ideology that burry deeper and deeper the “inner morality of the law’, caging it into insensibility. It is a legal literature that helps trace the sociogenetical linkages between power politics and legonihilism related to attack on the judiciary; demonstrated

by Nigeria’s experience of lego-nihilism – the octopus of Adolf Hitler’s Nazis phenomena – how the high effects of lego-nihilism undermine democratic principles and the Rule of Law in rendering judicial institution so incapacitated.

“The book also holds

profound analytical revelations to concepts such as ‘law’, ‘inner morality of the law’, ‘inherent functions of the court’, ‘judicial independence’, ‘judicial integrity’, ‘separation of power’, ‘judicial review’, ‘lego-nihilism’, and ‘judicial apocalypse’ amongst other conceptual belvederes.”

In his lamentations, the researcher insisted on the concept of the ‘supremacy of the judiciary’, wondering where the citizens would run to if the judiciary is destroyed. “I blame the Nigerian Bar Association (NBA) for devoting more energy to organise conferences than in developing the law. Since the senate cannot impeach President Muhammadu Buhari, let Nigerians use this opportunity this Saturday to sack him”.

@Businessdayng

Friday 15 February 2019

Nigeria’s economy on positive growth path - Udoma ANIEFIOK UDONQUAK, Uyo

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igerian economy is now on a positive growth path after exiting recession in Q2 2017 with the real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth improving from -2.3 percent in Q3 2016 to 1.17 percent in Q3 2017 and to 1.81 percent in Q3 2018.

Speaking at a press conference in Uyo, the Akwa Ibom State capital, Udoma Udo Udoma, minister of budget and national planning, said the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) in the month of January 2019 stood at 58.5 Index points, indicating expansion in the manufacturing sector for the 22nd consecutive month.

Noting that the country’s economy has shown strongest performance since Nigeria emerged from economic recession, he said 39 out of 46 economic activities had recorded economic growth with agriculture, manufacturing and services with the best performance in 11 quarters.

According to Udoma, the growth is driven by non-oil sector, which has recorded the strongest growth since the fourth quarter of 2015.

The minister, who attributed the improvement in the economy to the faithful implementation of the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP), said the country had improved its oil production capacity to take advantage of the slight recovery in oil prices To him, the country’s trade balance as at the third quarter of 2018 stood at N681.27 million as against a deficit of N135.96 million in the correspondent quarter of 2016.

“The performance of Real GDP has continued to be driven by the non oil sector which grew by 2.7 percent in Q42018 up from 2.23 percent in Q3 2013, 2.05 percent in q2 2018 and 0.76 in Q1 2018,’’he said.

According to him, this compares favourably with -033 percent in Q4 2016 and 1.45 percent in the corresponding quarter in 2017.

The growth of the non-oil sector in Q4 2018 represents the strongest growth in the sector since Q4 2015.

He said key sectors like manufacturing, agriculture, quarrying and other minerals and services witnessed steady growth while the manufacturing sector grew by 2.35 percent in Q4 2018 compared to 1.92 percent in Q3 2018 adding that agricultural sector rose from 1.91 percent in Q3 2019 to 2.46 in Q4 2018.

The minister, who noted that services recorded its best performance in 11 quarters,

growing by 2.90 percent in Q42018 compared to 2.64 percent in the previous quarter explained that in addition, quarrying and other minerals grew by 20.95 percent in Q4 2018 as against 17.03 percent in Q3 2018.

He observed that inflationary rate has been trending downwards from 18.55 percent as at December 2016 to 15.37 percent in December 2017 and further to 11.44 percent 2018 adding that it was below the target of 12.42 percent for 2018.

Maintaining that stability has been restored in the Exchange Rate Market bringing near convergence between the interbank rate (NIFEX) and the autonomous rate (NAFEX) over the past 12 month, he said there is sustained accretion to external reserves from $23.81 billion in September, 2016 to $43.042 as at 4th February, 2019.

“Nigeria’s rank in the World Bank’s Ease of Doing Business index improved from 170th in 2015 to 146th in 2018 showing a movement by 24 places reflecting the impact of the reforms in the business environment,’’ maintaining that the target in the ERGP is to improve Nigeria’s ranking to the top 100 by 2020.

The minister who explained that the federal government is making significant progress on the implementation of the various components of the National Social Intervention Programme saying at that as at December 20181, 1, 646,395 loans have been successfully disbursed under the Government Enterprise and Empowerment Programme (GEEP) with 1,302,793 of the loans given under the traderMoni scheme.

“The current real GDP growth performance is most encouraging and shows a movement in a very positive direction especially with regard to the non oil sector performance, with the federal government continuing its commitment to the implementation of the ERGP,’’ saying that it is expected that the economy would be further strengthened in 2019 and over the medium term.

He said 9.3 million school children are currently being fed each day in 49,837 schools across 24 states under the Home Grown school feeding programme saying the programme has provided direct jobs to 96,972 catering staff engaged under the scheme.

“The economy is now on a positive growth path after exiting recession in Q2 2017 and other macroeconomic indicators have also witnessed significant improvements,’’ he said.

Friday 15 February 2019

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FEATURE Behind Nigeria’s electoral race Nigeria’s presidential poll looks to be a close-run race, with little to choose between the two major political parties and their candidates for the top job Dianna Games

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L-R: President Muhammadu Buhari, APC presidential candidate and Atiku Abubakar, PDP presidential candidate

His APC party, a coalition cobbled together to challenge the PDP’s long period of uninterrupted rule, also won in most of Nigeria’s 36 states.

But Buhari’s star has faded since then. Though he still enjoys the support of many who believe his anticorruption campaign has made a difference, his detractors maintain that his hands-off governance style has allowed corruption to flourish. No highprofile arrests have been made, and the corrupt heads of state agencies have been replaced rather than prosecuted.

His government has won support for its infrastructure drive.

Under Buhari’s rule, several railway projects have been revived or completed, including a rail line between Abuja and Kaduna, and the Abuja light rail from the airport to the city. Many other projects that were abandoned by previous governments or are incomplete have been earmarked for action.

But after a rocky four years, he has lost much of the goodwill that swept him into office. He took power soon after the oil price had begun its downward spiral, creating large revenue shortfalls in the oil-dependent economy.

He then showed little urgency in tackling the economic crisis that the growing fiscal deficit precipitated.

In 2016, Nigeria slid into recession. Foreign exchange dried up, prices of consumer goods spiralled and pushed inflation to nearly 20%, and the currency was devalued in the middle of that

despite billions of dollars of investment and the partial privatisation of assets.

Abubakar has channelled US President Donald Trump with his “Let’s get Nigeria working again” campaign. He has made many ambitious promises about building a broad-based and competitive economy, pledging to more than double GDP to $900bn by 2025, cut taxes and boost manufacturing output.

His pro-economy and probusiness campaign has won him support. Buhari is regarded as unfriendly to business, with regulators, tax collectors and other agencies considered overzealous in their attitude to investors, both local and foreign. The hefty fines that have been imposed on SA’s MTN, intended as a warning to companies to comply with local rules and regulations, and designed to boost the ailing fiscus, have undermined investor confidence.

Abubakar is a millionaire with

year. The free spending that had attracted consumer companies, luxury goods salesmen and investors to Africa’s biggest market melted away.

Not only did Boko Haram not disappear, Buhari failed to tackle a new security challenge — the reign of terror conducted

by Fulani herdsmen in the farming communities of Nigeria’s middle belt. Added to this was the president’s lack of public engagement, his ill health, and the lacklustre performance of many of his ministers.

But the APC team has bounced back with a set of campaign promises under the banner “Next Level” that focus on creating jobs and developing skills through a variety of measures — though unemployment has surged to a record 23% on Buhari’s watch, from 6.4% at the end of 2014.

Both Buhari and Abubakar have promised to address problems in the power sector, which generates less than 10,000MW

‘ What Nigeria needs now is a president who really can get the country working again and take it to the next level

‘

igeria may be on the brink of change, with millions of voters going to the polls this weekend to choose candidates for a government that will guide the country for the next four years.

The focus of electoral efforts has been on the big prize — the presidential contest. Though there are about 70 candidates in the lineup, it is essentially a two-horse race between the incumbent, Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress (APC), and Atiku Abubakar of the opposition People’s Democratic Party (PDP), which the APC pushed from office in the last poll four years ago.

Both parties have attracted substantial support, but neither appears to offer the country the new start it needs to reboot its stagnant economy and address the myriad entrenched challenges it faces.

There is no compelling difference between the two in terms of policy and legacy. Before the 2015 election, many politicians crossed the floor from the PDP to the APC to take up political and government posts, while those who lost out crossed the floor back again. It led one analyst to cynically say Nigeria has one main party with two factions.

Buhari and Abubakar are both in their 70s and neither is new to the political scene. Buhari stood for president three times before he won in 2015; Abubakar was vice-president under Olusegun Obasanjo from 1999 to 2008.

Both men are also Fulani — Hausa-speaking Muslims from the north of Nigeria — so there is little separating them in terms of identity politics. This is important to note because, until recently, electoral support has split along geographic and religious faultlines. The trend shifted in the last elections, when Buhari received strong support in the Christiandominated south.

He won by a landslide, despite misgivings about his stint as a military ruler in the 1980s. His campaign promises — fighting corruption, subduing the Islamist extremist group Boko Haram in the northeast, and rejuvenating the economy — resonated with Nigerians who were tired of underdevelopment, looting by public officials, insecurity and growing poverty.

considerable business interests in Nigeria. However, he has been plagued by allegations of corrupt dealings during his eight years as vice-president. US investigators examined claims that he used offshore companies to siphon billions of dollars illegally into their jurisdiction.

Though nothing conclusive was proved, he was added to a list of prominent Africans barred from being issued a US visa.

Speculation abounds as to how he was able to travel to the US recently to meet members of the Nigerian diaspora — and why he would want to, given that the diaspora cannot vote.

His party, the PDP, lost support over the years because of the “normalisation” of corruption and looting of funds by public officials without consequence.

There are fears the party may take a soft line on corruption should Abubakar win. He has made general pledges to tackle graft but has also offered amnesty to corrupt officials in order, he claims, to enable the return of looted funds stored offshore.

The important SA-Nigeria relationship, which has drifted in recent years, may be given new impetus by an Abubakar win.

Though Buhari and President Cyril Ramaphosa have met, sparks did not fly. Abubakar, in contrast, has a long-standing relationship with SA, dating from his days as Obasanjo’s deputy, and especially during the presidency of Thabo Mbeki, when bilateral relations were at their height. (He is also a close friend of former president Jacob Zuma from this time.)

What happens in Nigeria is important not just to SA but to Africa in general. It is the biggest market on the continent by far, with more than 180-million people; it is the pivotal state in West Africa; and it remains an influential political force in Africa.

But economically, it punches well below its weight, with its performance still inextricably linked to the vagaries of the oil price.

What Nigeria needs now is a president who really can get the country working again and take it to the next level. With just a few days to go, these elections are still too difficult to call. But whatever happens, citizens need to be clear that it cannot be business as usual, either way.

• Games is CEO of advisory firm Africa@Work and executive director of the SA-Nigeria Business Chamber

34 BUSINESS DAY NEWS Candidates in final push for votes...

Continued from page 1 their safety and full protection,

the 76-year-old proceeded to reel out a list of achievements of his administration, from tackling corruption to diversifying the economy.

“The recovery of the economy from recession is complete and Nigeria is back on the path of steady growth,” Buhari claimed.

“The key to creating more jobs lies in accelerating this momentum of economic growth. Happily, we have succeeded in making the fundamental changes necessary for this acceleration, and we are now beginning to see the efforts bearing fruit,” he said.

GDP figures published by the state-funded National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) this week showed that the economy expanded 1.93 percent in 2018, from 0.8 percent in 2017.

Despite the improved GDP reading, the economy has gone nowhere in per capita terms which implies that Nigerians are growing poorer.

Economic growth has printed lower than the country’s annual birth rate of about 2.6 percent since 2016. That means GDP per capita has

shrunk in the past three years.

Unemployment has also soared to a six-year high of 23 percent under Buhari’s watch.

In a sign of the increased misery of Nigerians, a Brookings report said in 2018 that Nigeria had surpassed India as the poverty capital of the world, despite having less than a third of India’s population.

“His message should have been restricted to an assurance of a peaceful and fair election, rather than give himself an unfair advantage over the other presidential candidates,” a business leader said.

Buhari’s main contender, Atiku Abubakar of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), was not privileged enough to deliver a national broadcast.

Using his twitter handle, however, the 72-year-old urged Nigerians to come out in their numbers to vote.

“On Saturday 16th, let’s remember, a vote for PDP is a vote for a better life. Go out, vote and defend your vote, and let’s get Nigeria working again,” Atiku tweeted.

Nigeria’s presidential elections could go down as one of the most

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fiercely contested since the country’s return to democracy in 1999.

Some 87 million Nigerians could head to the polls, if all those who are registered have collected their voting cards – 8 million were still uncollected in January – and care to make the effort.

In 2015, the total number of voters captured in INEC’s Electronic Voters Register (EVR) was about 68.8 million.

Of this, less than half (41 percent) voted. To put it bluntly, over 40 million Nigerians did not vote in 2015.

In the all-important presidential race, 73 candidates will be on the ballot butonlytwostandanychance–incumbentPresidentBuharioftheAllProgressives Congress (APC) and former Vice President Abubakar of the PDP. Both are backed by powerful political machines.

The APC, which backs Buhari, and Abubakar’s PDP don’t operate on a traditional ideological left-right continuum, according to a report by international news media, Financial Times, Thursday.

Instead, the parties appear to function largely as vehicles for state capture, through which the country’s resources can be used to fund vast patronage networks.

Their policy positions have tended to be broad and similar centred on state-driven development.

So fluid are the parties that Abubakar has switched back and forth multiple times – in the last election, he part funded the Buhari campaign, allowing the former general to use his private jet.

But in January, Abubakar outlined the difference between him and the president.

Abubakar wants to privatise state assets, lower corporate taxes and attract foreign direct investment. He also says he wants to float the naira, which the central bank has spent billions of dollars propping up at what critics call an artificially strong rate of N360 to the dollar for more than a year.

He says one of his top priorities will be passing decades-in-the-making oil sector reforms that are widely seen as essential to spurring investment in the moribund industry.

Buhari has refused to sign a section of the reforms into law in part, critics say, because it would dilute the power of the executive branch.

The president is sticking to his state-led, bottom-up approach to development, focusing on agriculture, small business and infrastructure.

He is campaigning as the candidate of the masses, in keeping with his almost cult-like following in the country’s populous north.

While their campaign promises differ widely, it’s not clear whether a victory for either side will produce markedly different economic outcomes given the country’s immense structural challenges, says Adriaan du Toit, sub-Saharan Africa economist for AllianceBernstein.

“The significant dependence on oil means that the next president’s [ability

Friday 15 February 2019

to enact] reforms will be very much aligned with what happens to oil prices in the next couple of years,” he adds.

Even critics concede Buhari was dealt a bad hand, taking office just as the oil price crashed. But many economists believe he exacerbated the recession that followed.

At a meeting of business people in Lagos last weekend, he said his government had come into power in 2015 focused on three priorities: national security, tackling “rampant corruption” and improving the economy. He seemed to concede that progress had been slow.

“These three priorities, if addressed, will completely transform Nigeria to a diversified, inclusive and competitive economy,” he was quoted as saying in local media.

“But this is not an overnight transition. We are not only transforming systems and processes, but we are also changing hearts and minds,” Buhari had said.

Hearts and minds are hard to measure. But a host of economic indicators paint a dismal picture of Buhari’s stewardship.

During his tenure, unemployment has soared from 8.3 percent to more than 23 percent, with another fifth of Nigerians underemployed; the stock market is the world’s worst performing, falling by more than half in dollar terms; and the country became home to the most people living in extreme poverty – defined as living on less than $1.90 per day – 87 million, surpassing India, a country with six times its population.

Buhari’s economic woes have allowed his rival to argue that his success in business makes him perfectly qualified to, as his campaign slogan says, “get Nigeria working again”.

Landlord/tenant cases in court rising as...

Continued from page 2

L-R: Akinyemi Muyiwa, group head, corporate bank, United Bank for Africa (UBA) plc; Austine Abolusoro, group head, online digital banking, UBA plc; Juliet Ehimuan-Chiazor, country director, Google Nigeria; Chukwuma Nweke, executive director/group COO, UBA plc; Dupe Olusola, group head, marketing, UBA plc; Saidu Abdullahi, head, NBU partnerships SSA, Google Nigeria, and Anant Rao, group executive, digital & consumer banking, UBA plc, at the launch of Google Station, a Google/UBA collaboration, at the UBA Head Office in Lagos.

Venezuela’s crisis shows why credible...

Continued from page 1

is a fight about aid. These are consequences of a sham election,

something Nigeria should be wary of.

Nigeria has Africa’s biggest oil reserves and produced 1.792 million barrels a day in January, the most of anyAfricancountry,accordingtoOPEC figures. But these will offer little security if the elections turn violent. Again, Venezuela serves as a fitting lesson.

Venezuela has the worlds’ highest proven oil reserves totalling 297 billion barrels and is a leading exporter of petroleum products.

Today, bogged by sanctions from the United States, which stem in part from a sham election, the country’s production has fallen from 3.4 mb/d to about 1.3 mb/d.

“The imposition of sanctions by the United States against Venezuela’s state oil company Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) is another reminder of the huge importance for oil of political events,” International Energy Agency, a Paris-based energy think tank, said in its market report released February 13.

Presidential elections were held in Venezuela on May 20, 2018, with incumbent Nicolás Maduro re-elected for a second six-year term. But several NGOs, international observers and

countries like Australia and the United States and opposition candidates rejected the electoral process.

Maduro was sworn in as president anyway on January 10, 2019 and, days later, Albania, Canada, Iceland, Israel, Kosovo, the United States, and a number of Latin American countries recognised National Assembly Speaker Juan Guaidó as the legitimate president after the start of the 2019 Venezuelan presidential crisis.

However, limiting Venezuela’s crisis to poor election outcomes takes a narrow view of the challenge.

Garth Friesen, CEO at III Capital Management, a hedge fund with approximately $4.5 billion assets under management, told Forbes that the story of how Venezuela went from relative stability to hyperinflation includes tales of corruption, social unrest, self-serving politics, capital controls, price-fixing and a global commodity bust.

The problem is that similar conditions are already at play in Nigeria.

Transparency International raised questions about Nigeria’s war against corruption when it released its latest ranking which indicates that Nigeria has not moved a needle on the fight.

The EFCC says it has secured hundreds ofconvictions,butithasfounditdifficult

to shake off the perception that the fight is targeted at opposition members.

Farmer-herder conflicts which have decreased in recent times are threats to the nation’s food security breeding social unrest. The spectre of violence from Boko Haram hangs about the north and insurgency in the Niger Delta is a present concern.

Nigeria’s economy is held in the balance as the Central Bank uses currency controls to keep the naira stable.

To keep the price of fuel stable, the government pays over N1 trillion yearly in subsidies and the fear of a commodity bust has seen OPEC impose supply cap on production by members.

Nigerians will go to the polls this Saturday to elect a president with the elements that precipitated Venezuela’s crises simmering below the surface. A sham election could spark a flame that may not easily be put out.

“As Venezuela stands today, it’s almost run out of foreign reserves, it has lost access to foreign debt markets, it is out of favour with other governments (except Iran) due to political corruption, its nationalised economy is horribly inefficient, and its people are literally starving in the streets,” said Friesen.

This is why international agencies and foreign governments have been calling for a peaceful conduct of the elections in Nigeria because there is life after elections.

It was not this bad some years ago,” Adebayo Adedayo, a lawyer who practices in Ibadan, the Oyo State capital, said.

“I have got more tenancy briefs in the last one year than the three years preceding the last one year combined,” he said.

Olumide Osunsina, CEO, Megamounds Investment, confirmed to BusinessDay in an interview that rent payment default rate has been on the rise in the last two years, blaming it on economic hardship. He revealed that in their serviced estate, County Homes in Lekki, Lagos, many of the residents were in debt of rents and service charge. Many of them have lost their jobs and have no income.

“Some of my tenants have been finding it difficult to pay rent in the last three years,” Andrew Oke, a landlord who owns properties in Ibadan, told BusinessDay. “One of them particularly stated that his reason for not paying his rent was because he lost his job. This is a tenant that has been in the property for seven years and was paying his rent regularly until two years ago,” Oke said.

A magistrate in Kwara State who spoke on condition of anonymity said tenancy cases that come before his court have multiplied in the last two years.

“Though I cannot give exact figures, the rate of tenancy matters in my court has increased significantly compared to some years back. In Ilorin, for example, so many of the landlords are old people who depend on the rent they collect to survive,” the magistrate said.

“Tenants have been failing land-

lords and as a result, those that do not want to take laws into their hands have decided to approach the court.

The usual excuse from tenants that are businessmen is that the economy is not favourable while the ones earning salaries do claim that they haven’t been paid for months,” he said.

An estate manager in Ogun State also disclosed that the rate at which he goes to court to eject tenants has increased.

“Some tenants have owed for two to three years and yet cannot pay.

Some of them claimed to have lost their jobs and as a result can’t afford to pay their rent. Due to constant harassment from the landlords, some of them have locked the house and are hanging around with family and friends. I will end up approaching the court for order to recover premises by forcing the door of the apartment open,” the estate manager said.

In Abuja and Lagos, it is estimated that over 70 percent of civil cases in magistrate courts are tenancy matters. In Lagos particularly, where over 60 percent of the state’s 20 million residents are tenants, tenancy cases are very high. Parties are encouraged to embrace the state’s alternative dispute resolution (ADR) courts to no avail.

Raymond Ajao, a lawyer and company secretary in Lagos, told BusinessDay that the company he works for has been served with quit notice due to its inability to pay rent.

“We have been paying the landlord piecemeal and the man is tired of that already. The company has been struggling to get contracts for nearly three years now. I haven’t been paid November salary and this is February,” Alao said.

Friday 15 February 2019

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BUSINESS DAY

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Odunayo Oyasiji

By Ehiwe O. Sam of Perchstone and Graeys

The 2019 general elections: influences on the capital market

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n less than three days, Nigerians will be going to the polls to elect a new leadership both in the executive and legislative arms of government. The pre and post-election influence on the stock market will definitely be significant. In the main, foreign investors will, at this point, be very careful in investing in the Nigerian market. This, consequently, may affect the size of our foreign direct investment (FDI) one way or the other. The greatest fear of investors is the possibility of changes in policy by the incoming governmentwhoever wins eventually!

In the stock market, the world over, stock prices fluctuate every other time even with blue chip companies whose investments are understood to be more secured and surer. Investors often wonder and try to ascertain the factors that affect the prices of stocks.

Already, the year 2018 was not so rosy for the capital market and the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) as its crucial indicators depreciated by 19.77 per cent due to uncertainties surrounding the forthcoming general elections. The same platform reports that a breakdown of the foreign investment outflow from the exchange between the first (Q1) and third (3rd) quarters of 2018 showed that a total of N513.49 billion left the country during that period. This amounted to an embarrassing 63 % increase in total outflow compared with N315.04 billion withdrawn in the same period in 2017.

This trend may not be unconnected with the uncertainties surrounding the forth coming general elections.

How more can we explain the negative trend in the market if not to link same to the forth coming elections. The All-Share Index opened trading in 2018 at 38, 243.19, but surprisingly an amazing 6, 812.69 points or 17.81 per cent was shed to close at 31, 430.50, eroding over 43 per cent growth posted in 2017.

The desultory performance of the market is directly linked to the jittery of investors with regards to the uncertainties surrounding the forth coming general elections and the slow recovery pace of the economy.

Reviewing the trends, it would be observed that similar

patterns occurred in the build up to the 2015 general elections.

In 2014 the market recorded a -4.27% (Year-To-Date (YTD) loss, clearly showing the level of uncertainties ahead of the 2015 elections.

Also taking a clue from the trends in Kenya. In 2017, following the row that succeeded the presidential election, the Supreme Court ordered a rerun of the election. This singular pronouncement sent shock waves through the spines of the Nairobi Securities Exchange and as a result, trading halted for about half an hour after the NSE 20 Share Index – which covers the country’s largest and most heavily-traded companies – declined by more than 5 %.

Basic micro economics postulates that prices of commodities are regulated by the demand and supply interactions in the market place. Every investor and operator in the money market wants to know what the earnings per share (EPS) and the interest rates respectively, and how secured his investments would be before he invests in stocks and lend out money for capital reinvestment. The EPS rates, to a large extent, affects the prices of shares just as the interest rates affect the EPS. Aside the investment scare that precedes an election year,

the investors also try to allay the fears of a wasted investments by critically examining all the factors that may affect such investments. When shares are purchased by an investor, it gives the investor an access to future earnings on a proportional basis. When at the end of the regular period the earnings are brought together, part of these earnings is, where declared, shared to shareholders as dividend while the remainder is retained by the company and ploughed back as capital for reinvestment. In properly construing future earning streams, same is construed as a function of both the current level of earning base.

This uncertainty also has a great toll on those in need of funds and resources to carryout business. Accessing capital has always been a challenge in Africa for Small and medium scale enterprises. This is as a result of the fears of the loans eventually becoming bad arising from the failure of the lenders to pay back the loans. This trend most often gets compounded during election periods due to all round uncertainties. Just recently, on January 25, 2019, the president of Nigeria, suspended the Chief Justice of Nigeria. This singular move sent shock waves through the spines of the bar and the bench. Its telling on

investors confidence will obviously not be in doubt. There will be the feeling of uncertainty amongst the investors who would have reposed confidence in the courts for the resolution of trade disputes. The general understanding will then be that the judiciary is entirely under the whims and caprices of the executive arm.

Furthermore, in the electioneering period, the central bank of Nigeria may decide to raise or reduce the interest rates to stabilize the Nigerian economy.

If a company, blue-chip or not, in search of capital, borrows money to improve its business and expand its capital base, higher interest rates will certainly affect the cost of its debt where the rates are increased.

As the cost of debt increases, this alone can reduce the profits and dividends to be gotten by the investors. This explains the reason why in higher interest regimes, investments that pay interest tends to attract more investors than those that pay dividends. As at the last quarter of 2018, few months to the 2019 general elections, the central bank of Nigeria left its official interest rate bench mark unchanged at 14% as widely projected by market analysts.

Where the interest rates are very high, this affects the cost of accessing capital generally.

The general political cum economic outlook is another key influencing factor. When investors perceive that the economy may expand due to the economic blueprints and policies been put forward by a candidate that has a real likelihood of emerging victorious at the polls, stock prices may rise as investors will be more than ever willing to buy shares on the understanding that returns on such investments will be certain.

Where the economic outlook is gloomy, investors may not be willing to invest in stocks and may even begin to sell off their shares and then the market forces of demand and supply sets in.

Stock market crashes are, more often than not, driven by investors panic as well as other underlying factors like economic and political uncertainty such as the forth coming 2019 general elections in Nigeria which may be heralded with significant changes in policy. When investors loose confidence in the market, it can lead to a significant and frightening sale of stocks in the stock market and a resultant drop in prices.

It is important for investors to realize that with the internationalization of the stock market and the emergence of electronic systems, crashes can now spread rapidly across the globe which can magnify the collapse of the market.

In conclusion, while there are numerous factors that affect the behavior of the capital market, changes in policy and political tensions, unrests and uncertainties are very common influences in the market structure. The impact that the emergence of a new government structure would have on the market can be seen from the light of the changes in policies and ideologies and even to changes in interest rates. A new government may also come up with tax structures which may not be investors friendly. The resultant effect is the impact, either positive or negative, that it will have on the market.

Investors will therefore have to be observant and prudently speculative in their investments particularly in this electioneering period.

36 BUSINESS DAY NEWS

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SFH announces appointment of new MD

O

mokhudu Idogho has been appointed the managing director, Society for Family Health (SFH). This appointment took effect January 1, 2019, taking over from Bright Ekweremadu, who retired as managing director of SFH on December 31, 2018, after 14 years in the position.

Before this appointment, Omokhudu was the head of SFH’s Innovation Hub, focused on developing a sustainable community health financing ecosystem and Social Business model that brings the emerging Nigerian middle class and poor together in the quest for shared health and prosperity.

He also served as the programme director for DFID’s Enhancing Nigeria’s Response to HIV&AIDS (ENR) Programme, one of the largest single country HIV programmes in the world.

Before joining SFH, Omokhudu worked with ActionAid International in South Africa as the Global

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Law against FGM: Edo tasks orientation agency, others on aggressive awareness campaign

E HIV&AIDS programme coordinator overseeing ActionAid’s work in 22 countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America.

He also worked as a Policy Advisor with ActionAid Alliance in Belgium focused on shaping policy making in European Union institutions.

His other positions included Health Advisor with WaterAid Nigeria in Benue State, and as a Medical Officer of Health at Izzi Local Government in present day Ebonyi State. Omokhudu trained as a Doctor at the University of Benin and has postgraduate qualifications in public policy and public health.

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do State governor, Godwin Obaseki, has charged the National Orientation Agency (NOA), ministries of women affairs, communication as well as the media to publicise the provisions of the new Violence Against Persons (VAP) Law, which includes life imprisonment, without an option of fine for perpetrators of Female Genital Mutilation (FGM) in the state.

Obaseki, who gave the charge in Benin City on Thursday, the state capital, said after signing the Violence Against Persons Bill into Law, there was urgent need to drive the awareness campaign to every nook and cranny of the state.

“This is one law that is dear to my heart and the

hearts of all stakeholders that supported it right from its conception, through its consideration in the Edo State House of Assembly.

“Having a law against female genital mutilation is a major step but ensuring that people are aware of its existence is very important in our new resolve to rid Edo State of the practice,” the governor said.

He added: “I urge all relevant government agencies with the mandate of publicising government activities, policies and programmes as well as members of Civil Society Organisations (CSOs) to take the message to the grassroots so that we can achieve the desired impact.”

The governor on Tuesday signed the VAP Bill into law, to address all forms of violence and protect vulnerable

members of the society.

Signing the bill in Government House, Benin City, he noted that he was aware that the bill touched on fundamental practices among the people, assuring that he was not only signing the bill as a formality, but would ensure it was implemented to the letter.

“We will not stop here by just signing the bill into law, but will commence the much difficult work of implementing it to the letter. It must be noted that this bill has been in consideration for over six to eight years but the time has come for us to have a law like this VAP Law, to protect the most vulnerable and weak in our society.

“As a government, we have aligned with the Federation of Women Lawyer (FIDA)’s purpose and objec-

tive and therefore have no hesitation in signing the bill into law,” he said.

“I want to appreciate FIDA for their doggedness, leadership and commitment to this cause. I am not sure many other states in the nation have such bills. This bill goes to the core of some of the most pressing issues in society particularly violence against women and other persons.”

Speaker, Edo State House of Assembly, Kabiru Adjoto, told the governor that the newly signed VAP law would eliminate violence in private and public life.

“This bill prohibits violence against all persons and provides maximum protection and effective remedy for victims and punishment for offenders and other related matters,” he said.

National Housing attains 80% completion in Edo - zonal director IDRIS UMAR MOMOH, BENIN

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outh-South zonal director of National Housing Programme (NHP), Daminabo Oko-Jaja, has disclosed that the 68 housing units under construction in Edo State has attained 80 percent completion.

Jaja made the disclosure during an inspection tour on the housing project located in Uhunmwode Local Government Area of the state.

The director, who described the project as laudable, noted that between 3,000 and 4,000 artisans within the state were engaged in the construction of the housing project.

While pointing out that the project’s execution complied with the local content policy, he added that when completed it would positively reduce the housing deficit not only in the state but the country in general.

He gave the breakdown of the housing units to include eight blocks of three bedrooms, 14 blocks of two bedrooms, a condominium block of 24 flats of one bedroom, 16, two bedrooms and 14 three-bedroom flats.

“The bottom line is that everything we are using here are made in Nigeria. The National Housing Programme was initiated in 2016 at the time when the economy went into recession.

L-R: Jonathan Nwosu, registrar, Babcock University; Dorothy Johnson, deputy HR director, Huawei; Dogo Edafe Bawa, Babcock’s Best Final Year Student with CGPA of 4.96 ( Business Education), and Olufolahan Faseyitan, Globacom regional manager, Lagos/Ogun, when Bawa received a smartphone from Globacom, recently.

Nigeria’s financial market ranking moves up 1 place in 2018 Auchi MFB shareholders’ fund increases to N195.9m in 2017 BUNMI BAILEY

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igeria’s financial market performance moved up one place to the fifth position in 2018 from number sixth position in 2017, according to last year’s Absa Africa Financial Market index.

BusinessDay analysis of the index report by Absa Group Limited, a South African firm that offers an integrated set of products and services across personal and business banking, corporate and investment banking, wealth and investment management and insurance showed, that Nigeria ranked fifth position out of 20 countries that were analysed in Africa scoring 61 out of 100.

The report stated that the improvements in administrative efficiency and tax incentives boosted regulatory environment.

The Index assesses countries according to six pillars which are market depth; access to foreign exchange; tax and regulatory environment and market transparency; capacity of local investors; macroeconomic opportunity, and enforce-ability of financial contracts, collateral positions and insolvency frameworks.

Out of the six pillars that were used Nigeria scored the highest of 94 in Market transparency, tax and regulatory environment, 66 in Market depth, 59 in Macroeconomic opportunity, 53 in Access to foreign exchange, 50 in Capacity of

local investors and 42 in Legality and enforce-ability of standard financial markets master agreements.

Gbolahan Ologunro, an equities research analyst at Lagos-based CSL Stockbrokers, said to a large extent market activities have been transparent, thanks to the intervention of the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE), the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and FMDQ OTC Securities Exchange (FMDQ).

“Market transparency is definitely one of the major drivers of the study performance in that space. Improved availability, dissemination of data and also the frequency at which those data are being released add to its transparency,” Ologunro said.

IDRIS UMAR MOMOH, Benin

A

uchi Microfinance Bank Limited (AMFB) says its shareholders’ fund has increased from N173.4 million in 2016 to N195.9 million in 2017.

Hassan Momodu, chairman, board of director of the financial institution, made the disclosure at the combined 20th and 21st annual general meetings of the bank ended 2016 and 2017 financial years, respectively, in Auchi.

Momodu, who said the increase in the shareholders’ fund was an indication of prudent management of resources even in the face of dwindling income, however, attributed the delay in the annual general meetings to the late receipts of the audited

accounts of the bank to the re-organisation in the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) approvals of audited accounts of MFBs. He also put the bank’s gross earnings at N117.6 million in the year under review as against N123.9 million in 2016, representing 5 percent decrease, while 2015 earnings was N122.690 million.

He attributed the decease in gross earnings in the 2017 financial year to sharp decrease in the pricing of investment placement as a result of recession and also a drop in other income because of poor loan repayments.

The board chairman, who expressed optimism that the 2018 financial accounts would be better than that of year 2017, noted that the bank had continually im-

proved economic empowerment to micro, small and medium enterprises by providing financial and advisory services tailored towards their businesses.

“Your bank has been instrumental in financing skills acquisition centres, infrastructural development, among others, to enhance grassroots development and has had the good fortune of being at the top chain of microfinance banks in Edo State, impacting on MSMEs in your community and its environs.

“The bank is poised in the coming years to provide innovative ways to serve our customers’ needs and we are harnessing IT to provide convenient, cost effective and secured ways to access our services online,” he said.

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BUSINESS DAY

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Live @ the Stock exchange Prices for Securities Traded as of Thursday 14 February 2019 Company

Market cap(nm)

Price (N)

Change

Trades

Volume

Company

Market cap(nm)

Price (N)

Change

Trades

Volume

PRICES FOR MAIN BOARD SECURITIES (Equities) BANKING ACCESS BANK PLC. 190,924.61 6.60 -0.75 347 39,682,638 UNITED BANK FOR AFRICA PLC 268,465.46 7.85 1.29 243 24,221,487 777,063.22 24.75 -0.60 449 40,288,012 ZENITH BANK PLC 1,039 104,192,137 OTHER FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS FBN HOLDINGS PLC 297,930.93 8.30 -1.19 247 7,790,721 247 7,790,721 1,286 111,982,858 BUILDING MATERIALS DANGOTE CEMENT PLC 3,254,736.91 191.00 0.53 69 187,836 116,223.94 13.40 3.08 64 848,378 LAFARGE AFRICA PLC. 133 1,036,214 133 1,036,214 EXPLORATION AND PRODUCTION SEPLAT PETROLEUM DEVELOPMENT COMPANY PLC 341,297.85 580.00 - 35 260,367 35 260,367 35 260,367 1,454 113,279,439 REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUSTS (REITS) SKYE SHELTER FUND PLC 1,900.00 95.00 - 0 0 11,300.89 45.20 - 0 0 UNION HOMES REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST (REIT) UPDC REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST 15,876.20 5.95 - 1 5,000 1 5,000 1 5,000 OTHER FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS NIGERIA ENERYGY SECTOR FUND 411.91 552.20 - 0 0 VALUEALLIANCE VALUE FUND 3,312.39 103.20 - 0 0 0 0 0 0 CROP PRODUCTION FTN COCOA PROCESSORS PLC 440.00 0.20 - 0 0 OKOMU OIL PALM PLC. 81,082.35 85.00 - 11 24,609 60,000.00 60.00 - 4 7,069 PRESCO PLC 15 31,678 FISHING/HUNTING/TRAPPING ELLAH LAKES PLC. 511.20 4.26 - 0 0 0 0 LIVESTOCK/ANIMAL SPECIALTIES LIVESTOCK FEEDS PLC. 1,980.00 0.66 10.00 28 1,669,118 28 1,669,118 43 1,700,796 DIVERSIFIED INDUSTRIES A.G. LEVENTIS NIGERIA PLC. 714.77 0.27 - 0 0 JOHN HOLT PLC. 186.79 0.48 - 1 3,122 S C O A NIG. PLC. 1,903.99 2.93 - 1 243 63,410.86 1.56 2.56 248 41,134,669 TRANSNATIONAL CORPORATION OF NIGERIA PLC U A C N PLC. 27,660.45 9.60 3.23 52 709,522 302 41,847,556 302 41,847,556 BUILDING CONSTRUCTION ARBICO PLC. 711.32 4.79 - 0 0 0 0 INFRASTRUCTURE/HEAVY CONSTRUCTION JULIUS BERGER NIG. PLC. 33,660.00 25.50 - 14 99,676 ROADS NIG PLC. 165.00 6.60 - 0 0 14 99,676 REAL ESTATE DEVELOPMENT UACN PROPERTY DEVELOPMENT COMPANY PLC 4,365.30 1.68 - 6 124,779 6 124,779 20 224,455 AUTOMOBILES/AUTO PARTS DN TYRE & RUBBER PLC 954.53 0.20 - 0 0 0 0 BEVERAGES--BREWERS/DISTILLERS CHAMPION BREW. PLC. 12,605.49 1.61 - 8 108,476 GOLDEN GUINEA BREW. PLC. 242.22 0.89 - 0 0 GUINNESS NIG PLC 142,374.88 65.00 - 33 170,383 INTERNATIONAL BREWERIES PLC. 249,280.00 29.00 - 4 2,981 NIGERIAN BREW. PLC. 639,752.16 80.00 -1.23 63 446,839 108 728,679 FOOD PRODUCTS DANGOTE FLOUR MILLS PLC 41,750.00 8.35 -4.57 184 5,980,015 DANGOTE SUGAR REFINERY PLC 180,000.00 15.00 - 99 2,179,370 FLOUR MILLS NIG. PLC. 85,082.88 20.75 -2.12 44 338,462 HONEYWELL FLOUR MILL PLC 10,626.46 1.34 3.08 48 1,574,816 MULTI-TREX INTEGRATED FOODS PLC 1,340.10 0.36 - 0 0 N NIG. FLOUR MILLS PLC. 766.26 4.30 - 0 0 NASCON ALLIED INDUSTRIES PLC 50,206.86 18.95 -0.26 17 681,383 UNION DICON SALT PLC. 3,676.41 13.45 - 1 10 393 10,754,056 FOOD PRODUCTS--DIVERSIFIED CADBURY NIGERIA PLC. 21,599.32 11.50 - 21 50,756 NESTLE NIGERIA PLC. 1,260,323.44 1,590.00 - 47 35,222 68 85,978 HOUSEHOLD DURABLES NIGERIAN ENAMELWARE PLC. 1,680.31 22.10 - 0 0 VITAFOAM NIG PLC. 5,003.38 4.80 - 27 197,379 27 197,379 PERSONAL/HOUSEHOLD PRODUCTS P Z CUSSONS NIGERIA PLC. 50,226.53 12.65 5.42 36 376,856 UNILEVER NIGERIA PLC. 270,015.25 47.00 6.82 40 1,319,123 76 1,695,979 672 13,462,071 BANKING DIAMOND BANK PLC 55,121.73 2.38 -0.83 104 97,157,591 ECOBANK TRANSNATIONAL INCORPORATED 266,068.49 14.50 - 41 11,235,873 FIDELITY BANK PLC 75,334.47 2.60 3.08 157 10,044,860 GUARANTY TRUST BANK PLC. 1,116,913.25 37.95 -0.13 241 26,153,459 JAIZ BANK PLC 17,973.19 0.61 1.67 21 1,616,713 SKYE BANK PLC 10,687.83 0.77 - 0 0 STERLING BANK PLC. 71,688.14 2.49 3.75 287 5,336,203 UNION BANK NIG.PLC. 183,460.74 6.30 -8.03 42 717,762 UNITY BANK PLC 13,325.85 1.14 9.62 38 2,485,324 WEMA BANK PLC. 36,645.74 0.95 6.74 138 9,739,009 1,069 164,486,794 INSURANCE CARRIERS, BROKERS AND SERVICES AFRICAN ALLIANCE INSURANCE PLC 4,117.00 0.20 - 0 0 AIICO INSURANCE PLC. 5,128.35 0.74 1.37 20 1,034,598 AXAMANSARD INSURANCE PLC 21,315.00 2.03 - 7 31,200 CONSOLIDATED HALLMARK INSURANCE PLC 2,113.80 0.26 - 3 9,879 CONTINENTAL REINSURANCE PLC 19,811.94 1.91 - 0 0 CORNERSTONE INSURANCE PLC 3,093.20 0.21 - 2 51,950 GOLDLINK INSURANCE PLC 2,411.47 0.53 - 0 0 GUINEA INSURANCE PLC. 1,228.00 0.20 - 0 0 INTERNATIONAL ENERGY INSURANCE PLC 487.95 0.38 - 0 0 LASACO ASSURANCE PLC. 2,416.73 0.33 3.03 6 701,470 LAW UNION AND ROCK INS. PLC. 2,191.13 0.51 - 2 220 LINKAGE ASSURANCE PLC 5,120.00 0.64 - 1 1,000 MUTUAL BENEFITS ASSURANCE PLC. 2,000.00 0.25 - 3 10,300 NEM INSURANCE PLC 13,306.87 2.52 5.00 22 1,989,909 NIGER INSURANCE PLC 1,780.08 0.23 - 0 0 PRESTIGE ASSURANCE PLC 2,691.28 0.50 - 1 200,000 REGENCY ASSURANCE PLC 1,667.19 0.25 4.17 5 2,577,000 SOVEREIGN TRUST INSURANCE PLC 1,834.98 0.22 4.76 5 330,000 STACO INSURANCE PLC 4,483.72 0.48 - 0 0 STANDARD ALLIANCE INSURANCE PLC. 2,582.21 0.20 - 1 10,000 SUNU ASSURANCES NIGERIA PLC. 2,800.00 0.20 - 4 243,000 UNIC DIVERSIFIED HOLDINGS PLC. 516.46 0.20 - 0 0 UNIVERSAL INSURANCE PLC 3,200.00 0.20 - 0 0 VERITAS KAPITAL ASSURANCE PLC 3,050.67 0.22 -9.09 9 38,839,241 WAPIC INSURANCE PLC 5,888.40 0.44 - 20 146,599 111 46,176,366 MICRO-FINANCE BANKS FORTIS MICROFINANCE BANK PLC 11,799.67 2.58 - 0 0 NPF MICROFINANCE BANK PLC 3,772.95 1.65 - 10 48,215 10 48,215

MORTGAGE CARRIERS, BROKERS AND SERVICES ABBEY MORTGAGE BANK PLC 4,116.00 0.98 - 1 20 ASO SAVINGS AND LOANS PLC 7,370.87 0.50 - 0 0 5,922.05 1.42 - 1 100 INFINITY TRUST MORTGAGE BANK PLC RESORT SAVINGS & LOANS PLC 2,265.95 0.20 - 4 3,035,000 UNION HOMES SAVINGS AND LOANS PLC. 2,949.22 3.02 - 0 0 6 3,035,120 OTHER FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS AFRICA PRUDENTIAL PLC 8,740.00 4.37 - 20 92,208 CUSTODIAN INVESTMENT PLC 35,879.37 6.10 1.67 8 413,172 DEAP CAPITAL MANAGEMENT & TRUST PLC 660.00 0.44 - 0 0 47,526.51 2.40 4.80 190 27,284,885 FCMB GROUP PLC. ROYAL EXCHANGE PLC. 1,543.61 0.30 - 3 51,731 493,594.65 48.20 - 10 157,596 STANBIC IBTC HOLDINGS PLC UNITED CAPITAL PLC 20,100.00 3.35 4.69 57 1,365,392 288 29,364,984 1,484 243,111,479 HEALTHCARE PROVIDERS EKOCORP PLC. 1,680.29 3.37 - 0 0 UNION DIAGNOSTIC & CLINICAL SERVICES PLC 1,065.94 0.30 -3.23 8 499,250 8 499,250 MEDICAL SUPPLIES MORISON INDUSTRIES PLC. 544.04 0.55 - 0 0 0 0 PHARMACEUTICALS EVANS MEDICAL PLC. 366.17 0.50 - 0 0 7,050.00 4.70 - 5 54,992 FIDSON HEALTHCARE PLC GLAXO SMITHKLINE CONSUMER NIG. PLC. 14,350.52 12.00 - 14 146,722 4,140.56 2.40 - 15 203,358 MAY & BAKER NIGERIA PLC. NEIMETH INTERNATIONAL PHARMACEUTICALS PLC 1,329.41 0.70 - 9 94,890 NIGERIA-GERMAN CHEMICALS PLC. 556.71 3.62 - 0 0 325.23 1.50 - 0 0 PHARMA-DEKO PLC. 43 499,962 51 999,212 COMPUTER BASED SYSTEMS COURTEVILLE BUSINESS SOLUTIONS PLC 710.40 0.20 - 0 0 0 0 COMPUTERS AND PERIPHERALS OMATEK VENTURES PLC 1,470.89 0.50 - 0 0 0 0 IT SERVICES CWG PLC 6,413.06 2.54 - 1 200 NCR (NIGERIA) PLC. 648.00 6.00 - 0 0 381.11 0.77 - 0 0 TRIPPLE GEE AND COMPANY PLC. 1 200 PROCESSING SYSTEMS CHAMS PLC 939.21 0.20 - 2 400 E-TRANZACT INTERNATIONAL PLC 12,306.00 2.93 - 0 0 2 400 3 600 BUILDING MATERIALS BERGER PAINTS PLC 2,391.04 8.25 - 5 11,754 22,225.00 31.75 - 9 18,526 CAP PLC 289,157.02 22.00 0.23 25 243,196 CEMENT CO. OF NORTH.NIG. PLC FIRST ALUMINIUM NIGERIA PLC 654.21 0.31 - 1 35,000 MEYER PLC. 286.87 0.54 - 0 0 1,999.41 2.52 - 0 0 PORTLAND PAINTS & PRODUCTS NIGERIA PLC PREMIER PAINTS PLC. 1,279.20 10.40 - 0 0 40 308,476 ELECTRONIC AND ELECTRICAL PRODUCTS AUSTIN LAZ & COMPANY PLC 2,256.91 2.09 - 0 0 3,522.64 2.00 - 9 296,239 CUTIX PLC. 9 296,239 PACKAGING/CONTAINERS BETA GLASS PLC. 36,147.98 72.30 - 3 1,216 GREIF NIGERIA PLC 388.02 9.10 - 0 0 3 1,216 AGRO-ALLIED & CHEMICALS NOTORE CHEMICAL IND PLC 100,754.14 62.50 - 0 0 0 0 52 605,931 CHEMICALS B.O.C. GASES PLC. 1,577.57 3.79 - 3 2,580 3 2,580 METALS ALUMINIUM EXTRUSION IND. PLC. 1,803.64 8.20 - 1 95 1 95 MINING SERVICES MULTIVERSE MINING AND EXPLORATION PLC 852.39 0.20 - 0 0 0 0 PAPER/FOREST PRODUCTS THOMAS WYATT NIG. PLC. 50.60 0.23 - 0 0 0 0 4 2,675 ENERGY EQUIPMENT AND SERVICES JAPAUL OIL & MARITIME SERVICES PLC 1,377.79 0.22 - 15 891,100 15 891,100 INTEGRATED OIL AND GAS SERVICES OANDO PLC 68,372.77 5.50 -5.17 133 2,921,562 133 2,921,562 PETROLEUM AND PETROLEUM PRODUCTS DISTRIBUTORS 11 PLC 66,349.53 184.00 - 7 3,137 CONOIL PLC 15,960.90 23.00 - 10 38,179 ETERNA PLC. 6,129.48 4.70 -3.09 24 526,260 FORTE OIL PLC. 36,469.47 28.00 - 28 85,339 MRS OIL NIGERIA PLC. 7,055.81 23.15 - 5 1,552 TOTAL NIGERIA PLC. 69,601.98 205.00 - 28 410,094 102 1,064,561 250 4,877,223 ADVERTISING AFROMEDIA PLC 2,219.52 0.50 - 0 0 0 0 AIRLINES MEDVIEW AIRLINE PLC 16,576.10 1.70 - 1 2,400 1 2,400 AUTOMOBILE/AUTO PART RETAILERS R T BRISCOE PLC. 411.72 0.35 - 1 502 1 502 COURIER/FREIGHT/DELIVERY RED STAR EXPRESS PLC 3,242.23 5.50 - 4 19,814 TRANS-NATIONWIDE EXPRESS PLC. 295.37 0.63 - 8 440,468 12 460,282 HOSPITALITY TANTALIZERS PLC 642.33 0.20 - 0 0 0 0 HOTELS/LODGING CAPITAL HOTEL PLC 4,801.22 3.10 - 1 157 IKEJA HOTEL PLC 3,430.01 1.65 - 2 1,700 TOURIST COMPANY OF NIGERIA PLC. 7,862.53 3.50 - 0 0 TRANSCORP HOTELS PLC 46,362.46 6.10 - 0 0 3 1,857 MEDIA/ENTERTAINMENT DAAR COMMUNICATIONS PLC 4,800.00 0.40 - 1 1,000 1 1,000 PRINTING/PUBLISHING ACADEMY PRESS PLC. 247.97 0.41 - 0 0 LEARN AFRICA PLC 1,080.03 1.40 - 8 600,596 STUDIO PRESS (NIG) PLC. 1,183.82 1.99 - 0 0 UNIVERSITY PRESS PLC. 1,013.81 2.35 -2.89 7 744,981 15 1,345,577 ROAD TRANSPORTATION ASSOCIATED BUS COMPANY PLC 729.39 0.44 10.00 6 292,100 6 292,100 SPECIALTY INTERLINKED TECHNOLOGIES PLC 766.91 3.24 - 0 0

38

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BUSINESS DAY

39

Live @ The Exchanges Top Gainers/Losers as at Thursday 14 February 2019 GAINERS Company

Market Statistics as at Thursday 17 February 2019

LOSERS Opening

Closing

Change

Company

Opening

Closing

Change

UNILEVER

N44

N47

3

NB

N81

N80

-1

DANGCEM

N190

N191

1

UBN

N6.85

N6.3

-0.55

PZ

N12

N12.65

0.65

FLOURMILL

N21.2

N20.75

-0.45

WAPCO

N13

N13.4

0.4

DANGFLOUR

N8.75

N8.35

-0.4

UACN

N9.3

N9.6

0.3

OANDO

N5.8

N5.5

-0.3

ASI (Points)

32,453.69

DEALS (Numbers)

4,417.00

VOLUME (Numbers)

423,378,549.00

VALUE (N billion)

3.728

MARKET CAP (N Trn

12.102

CSL, Stanbic, RenCap, 7 others top January deals on Nigerian Bourse Stories by Iheanyi Nwachukwu

C

SL Stockbrokers Limited, Stanbic IBTC Stockbrokers Limited, RenCap Securities Nigeria Limited and seven other stockbroking firms accounted for 7,069,375,866 units of stocks traded on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) in January 2019.

The other seven stockbroking firms are: Meristem Stockbrokers Limited, FBN Quest Securities Limited, Cardinalstone Securities Limited, Primera Africa Securities Limited, Morgan Capital Securities Limited, EFCP Limited, and Chapel Hill Denham Securities Limited.

This record volume of stocks they traded from January 2nd to 31st, 2019 represents 56.63percent of the total volume of stocks traded on the NSE in the review month, according to broker performance report at the Bourse.

CSL Stockbrokers Limited topped the league with a record 1,352,302,029 units of traded equities, representing 10.83percent; Stanbic IBTC Stockbrokers Limited followed after

a record 1,053,504,885 units which it traded in January alone representing 8.44percent; while Rencap Securities (Nigeria) Limited accounted for 825,283,681units or 6.61percent.

Others are: Meristem Stockbrokers Limited (710,192,753 units or 5.69percent); FBN Quest Securities Limited (621,045,304units or 4.97percent); and Cardinalstone Securities Limited (588,768,282units or 4.72percent).

Also on the top ten list include Primera Africa Securities Lim-

ited (532,265,694units or 4.26percent); Morgan Capital Securities Limited (508,141,112units or 4.07percent); EFCP Limited (440,166,706units or 3.53percent); and Chapel Hill Denham Securities Limited (437,705,420units or 3.51percent).

Despite that the performance gauge of Nigerian stock market showed a decline of about 2.78percent in January 2019, many investors still made money because of their decisions to either hold or buy some stocks.

The stock market opened this year

with record value of N11.721trillion but stood at N12.057trillion at the close of trading on Wednesday February 13.

Ahead of the expected recovering in second-half (H2) of 2019, many smart investors are strategically buying value stocks following the bear reign in the market which pushed many equities to new lows.

These investors positive outlook for the stock market in H2 comes on the heels of many analysts reiterating their bearish outlook for this H1 amid political uncertainties

Ecobank turns in former manager over alleged N411m fraud ...Court remands him in prison

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Federal High Court in Ikoyi, Lagos, has ordered the remand of Ifeanyi Chukwu Azike, a former manager of Ecobank Nigeria, over allegations of defrauding the bank’s customers to the tune of N411million.

Azike, who was handed over to the police by the investigative unit of the bank was arraigned before Justice Ayotunde Faji on Tuesday, by the Special Fraud Unit (SFU) of the Nigeria Police Force on a three-

count charge bordering on obtaining money under false pretences, false representation and fraud.

The defendant, however, pleaded not guilty to the charge upon his arraignment.

Following his plea of not guilty, police prosecutor, ASP Daniel Apochi urged the court to remand him in prison pending trial. Consequently, Justice Faji ordered that the defendant be remanded in prison till 8th of March, 2019

when his bail application would be heard. In a charge marked, FHC/ L/56c/2019, the police alleged that between 2016 and 2017, Azike fraudulently obtained N150 million from a customer of Ecobank Nigeria under false pretence of buying him Federal Government Treasury Bill in his bank.

Azike was also alleged to have forged the bank customer’s signature, picture and letter of Instruction which he used in opening another parallel

account as Ikenna Okafor Kelvin with account number: 5333063028. The police also alleged that the bank manager without the consent of the bank fraudulently converted the sum of N411 million belonging to the bank to his personal use. The offences were said to be contrary to Sections 1 (1) (a), 15(1)(2) and 15(2) of the Advance Fee Fraud and Other Fraud related Offence Act No. 14 of 2006, and punishable under Section 1 (3) of the same Act.

which cloud investors’ sentiment as the election draws nearer.

As value-investing strategy remains the key to approaching on Custom Street in 2019, investors are seen selecting companies that are in good business with sound fundamentals, whose share prices are trading below their fair values.

Also considered are in the investors’ stock picks are equities with history of dividend payment.

Amid this record loss, investors made money from stocks like C&I Leasing Plc which gained 407.87percent in January. Also in the review month that just ended, Cement Company of Northern Nigeria Plc was up by 23.71percent; Julius Berger Nigeria Plc (+29.35percent) and Sterling Bank Plc (+25.79percent).

Our trend watch also showed others stocks which investors who never sold till January 31 made money from.

They are: ABC Transport Plc (+17.24percent); Africa Prudential Plc (+6.98percent); AGLeventis Plc (+7.41percent); AIICO Insurance Plc (+1.59percent); Carverton Plc (+14.58percent).

Cornerstone Insurance Plc advanced by 10 percent, Custodian & Allied Plc (+9.73percent); Cutix Plc (+9.76percent); Dangote Cement Plc (+0.16percent); Diamond Bank Plc (+3.21percent); and FCMB Group Plc (+4.23percent).

Fidelity Bank Plc gained 8.37percent last month; Forte Oil Plc (+2.79percent); John Holt Plc (9.09percent); Learn Africa Plc (+0.74percent); Livestock Feeds Plc (+8.16percent); AXA Mansard Plc (+3.83percent); Mutual Benefit Plc (+4.76percent); Okomu Oil Palm Plc (+7.61percent); Prestige Assurance Plc (+4percent); RedStar Express Plc (+19.05percent); and Regency Alliance Plc (4.76percent); and Royal Exchange Plc (+31.82percent).

Sunu Assurance Plc stock price advanced last month by 10 percent; Total Nigeria Plc (+10percent); Transnational Express Plc (+6.15percent); Union Bank of Nigeria Plc (+11.61percent); United Capital Plc (+12.41percent); Union Dicon Plc (+20percent); Vita Foam Plc (+9.09percent); Lafarge Africa Plc (+0.40percent); and Wema Bank Plc (+3.17percent).

CIS exposes stockbrokers to technical analysis of investments

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he Chartered Institute of Stockbrokers (CIS) has concluded arrangements to train Stockbrokers on the technical analysis of capital market asset classes as part of its capacity building policy to enhance its members’ global competitiveness.

The training, under the Institute’s Continuing Professional Development (CPD) Programme is a compulsory require-

ment for all Stockbrokers in order to upscale their skills and competencies.

Participants will be exposed to the theme titled “Understanding the Dynamics of Technical Analysis for Capital Market Investment “. The training is also designed to provide thorough grounding in Technical Analysis for various categories of investment Professionals, Traders and Investment managers of all asset classes.

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NATIONAL DISCOURSE

DANIEL OBI

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igerians will file out tomorrow to take critical a decision on their future. They are to decide between APC’s inclination for a state-controlled economy and the PDP’s crave for a private-sector-led economy.

The electorate’s choice in tomorrow’s Presidential election will also be predicated on the level of delivery of promises by the present government and its possible impact on the people. It will also be based on government’s socio-economic vision or the lack of it and whether there is any push for economic development to reduce growing poverty by the present government.

The Buhari-led government came on a high brand note in 2015 to bring positive change to Nigerians, tackle corruption, end the Boko Haram militancy, fight poverty and introduce reforms for economic development.

But fast-forward, looking at Nigerians who are desirous of speedy economic development have waited for three-and-half years to witness the promised changes. Instead what they see is kid gloves for the fight against the much-talked about corruption, increase in poverty and parochial appointments to key positions that favour one ethnic group, continuous killing by Boko Haram, a rise in the

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Friday 15 February 2019

Which way, as Nigerians file out tomorrow (Saturday) to make a critical decision on their future?

Fulani herdsmen’s onsaught that has threatened farming in some parts of the country and what appears to be a as lack of focus on economic direction.

Today, Nigeria has overtaken India on poverty rates but the worrisome aspect of it is that there appears to be little evidence of progress on attempts to reduce the poverty rate. During the Obasanjo, YarAdua and Jonathan administrations, they employed strong economic teams comprising of tested economic managers from various ethnic groups and walks of life to manage the economy, a situation which is lacking or not pronounced in this government.

A damning report by Brookings in June last year showed that the percentage of Nigerians cramped by poverty is higher than that in India.

This indicates that Nigeria is the country with the highest population of people, at 87 million, suffering from extreme poverty. It is also worrisome as the report indicated that six Nigerians join the league of the poor every one minute.

As a reslult of factors including bad policies and external shocks, the economy is not growing as expected.

GDP growth hit 6.31 % in 2014, slowed to 2.70% in 2015, went to -1.6 in 2016 and 0.8 % in 2017. Though the GDP has started moving to 1.8 % in the first quarter of 2018 with the nonoil sector, as usual making the greater contribution, Nigerians want to see government making greater moves to sustain the increase.

Olu Fasan, a London based economist regrets in his column in BusinessDay recently that “while other countries are experiencing a decline in their poverty rates, in Nigeria, the number of people living in poverty is

growing, not decreasing” Though Buhari has made some marks in the agricultural sector, Nigerians will determine whether the impact is enough to re-elect him.

“President Buhari initiated the Home Grown Feeding Programme which is designed to put an end to importation and market monopoly of farm produce that can be grown here in our country which is a pilot vehicle to sustainable economic, agricultural, academic and job creation across the length and breadth of our nation”, his aide, Lauretta Onochie said recently.

The Nigerian electorate will also be considering the PDP presidential candidate Atiku Abubakar, who is more prone to a free market economy driven by the private sector. A free market economy encourages innovation, enterprise, comes with Ease of Doing business and citizens have the freedom to create new ideas for profit.

Atiku also said he is going to restructure the economy for better management.

“If the current population trend continues, it is estimated that Nigeria’s population could double within the next 30 years. It would therefore become extremely difficult to continue to manage such as large population under a centralised structure.

Therefore, we must restructure our governance system to enhance efficiency and ensure greater accountability to the people” He said within the first six months, his government would commence the process of constitutional amendment that will devolve powers and responsibilities currently residing in the Federal Government to the state governments. This process will seek to decongest the exclusive and

concurrent list in the constitution.

In the spirit of a private-sector controlled economy, the Atiku government if elected, promises to provide a general direction for the economy, retain control of defence and national security, internal law and order, currency, international affairs, foreign policy, customs, citizenship and immigration, firearms and related matters, while devolving the concurrent list control.

Management experts have over time argued that over-centralisation of the federal system is the major factor for Nigeria’s poor development.

Speaking recently in Lagos at Nigerian Institute of Management, NIM lecture, World Bank former management specialist, Ladipo Adamolegun re-echoed that Nigeria’s over-centralisation of federal system is a major explanatory factor for poor development performance of the country.

Linking over-centralised Federal System to poor development performance, he said from military era to the present, Nigeria has witnessed economic growth without development, decline in the performance of public services, weak judiciary and institutionalised corruption.

According to him, “There has also been an increase in poverty level, estimated at about 65% by 1998 and close to 80% today”.

Giving evidence of the poor performance of the economy, he said Nigeria’s ranking in respect of broadgauged development performance ranges between low and very low.

For instance, in 2017 the Ibrahim Index of African Governance (IIAG) of the Mo Ibrahim Foundation, IIAG, Nigeria was 35th of 54 countries (with 48.1% score); 128th of 149

countries in 2017 Legatum Prosperity Index; 152nd of 188 in 2016 HDI; and 148th of 180 countries (with 27% score) in 2017 CPI. “ Regarding two proxies focused on peace and security, Nigeria was 127th of 127 countries in the 2016 World Internal Security and Police Index; and it ranked 149th of 163 countries in the 2017 Global Peace Index” Comparing the over-centralisation of the Federal system today with pre-1970- era, he said good development performance recorded between 1954 and January 1966 was due to the conducive environment provided by the features of a devolved federal system. He said there was quality in the public service and only about 25% of the population lived below poverty level by the mid-1960s.

Supporting devolution of powers, he argued for a re-allocation of powers and resources.

According to him, Nigeria should adopt and implement re-allocation of functions recommended in the recommendations of the 2014 National Political Conference. “They are consistent with the principle of subsidiarity.

Modify existing percentages applied for sharing the Federation Account to reflect the proposed re-assignment of functions - 35% for the centre and 65% for the federating units”.

Tomorrow, Nigerians file out to take decision on how their economy is run for better result. But it is believed that while the common man’s decision will be based on parochial consideration, immediate gains before the polls or ethnic interest, the elite will prefer a private sector led economy that will benefit all. Who therefore wins the elections?

Trouble brews as Niger Delta militants threaten economy if Buhari returns DIPO OLADEHINDE

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head Saturday presidential election, militants in oil-rich Niger Delta have threatened to get back to destroying oil assets and disrupting crude oil production, which will cripple Africa’s biggest economy, if President Muhammadu Buhari is re-elected.

A militant group in southern Nigeria called Niger Delta Avengers (NDA) that has carried out dozens of attacks on the oil industry warns that if Buhari is re-elected there would be “a perpetual recession for Nigeria.”

The NDA, who was behind 2016 wave of violence that helped push Nigeria into recession, is also drumming support for the main opposition candidate former vice president Atiku Abubakar.

“The High Command of the Niger Delta Avengers (NDA) makes it bold to say that the upcoming elections on the 16th of February, 2019, will make

or mar the continuous criminal exploitation and exploration of our natural resources that engenders the underdevelopment of the Niger Delta,” according to the group.

“We are adopting Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, as the sole candidate to be voted for by all the people of the Niger Delta as a result of his political ideology which is in tandem with our agitation for equitable and fair principles of federalism.”

The group’s spokesperson, Mudoch Agbinibo, ridiculed the report that some ex-militants had endorsed the re-election bid of President Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress (APC), noting that those who participated in that endorsement are “failures that abandoned the genuine struggle for the emancipation of the Niger Delta.”

Based on past experience, renewed attacks on oil installations by militant groups in the Niger Delta would inevitably result to drop in Nigeria’s oil production capacity, and revenue generation from oil.

According to report from National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), in the fourth quarter of 2018, average daily oil production stood at 1.91 million barrels per day (mbpd). This was lower than the 1.95 mbpd recorded in the same quarter of 2017, and 1.94mbpd in Q3 2018, which implies lower oil revenue for Nigeria within this period As it was in 2016, when the country lost huge production volumes and could not execute its national budget then, experts have indicated that the development was an unhealthy one, which should be dealt with immediately.

In 2016, when militants took to bombing oil installations and disrupting production, the country’s oil production level nosedived such that about 800,000 barrels per day (bpd) of oil could not be produced.

At that time, the government pegged in its 2016 budget, a national oil production of 2.2mbpd with a price range of $38 per barrel, and expected to take revenue from there

to fund its N6.07 trillion budget.

But the capacity of the government to fund the budget then was greatly impeded by the militant activities and slump in oil price.

However, while prices of oil today are rather in the northwards, a southward movement in crude oil production as a result of the new threat by the militants would see Nigeria lose vital production advantage and revenue to fund its budget.

The statement issued on Thursday by the group’s spokesperson, Brigadier General Mudoch Agbinibo, ridiculed the report that some exmilitants had endorsed the reelection bid of President Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress (APC), noting that those who participated in that endorsement are “failures that abandoned the genuine struggle for the emancipation of the Niger Delta.”

According to the group, part of the reasons for endorsing Atiku’s candidature is his promise to restructure the country.

The statement read: “The High Command of the Niger Delta Avengers were not surprised at the Premium Times online reportage of Tuesday 13th February, 2019, that Boyloaf, Tompolo, Shoot-at-Sight, Tom Ateke and Farah Dagogo are set to endorse the re-election bid of President Muhammadu Buhari, the common enemy of the Niger Delta people and sane minded Nigerians.

“It was expected from these five failures that abandoned the genuine struggle for the emancipation of the Niger Delta through which many gallant believers of the struggle laid their lives under their various commands, they owe allegiance to their newly-found romance with the government of the wicked Nigerian State under APC, government of President Muhammadu Buhari, that has continued to service them with multi-billion Naira contracts, making them abandon the oath they swore to our forefathers to free our generation from the oppressive Nigerian structure.

Friday 15 February 2019

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Eyes on INEC, security agencies as Nigerians go to the poll Zebulon Agomuo

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he role of the Indep e n d e n t Na t i o n a l Electoral Commission (INEC) and that of the security agencies in the 2019 general election starting from tomorrow is very critical.

The success or otherwise of the exercise will, to a large extent, be determined by the actions or inactions of the two institutions.

If there is any fear that is being nursed by Nigerians about the elections, it has to do with what the INEC and the security agencies will do or not do in the course of the elections.

Many people have already expressed pessimism that the elections may appear transparent on the surface but the outcome may not reflect the wishes of voters.

The singsong in the polity is that despite the assurances by the Commission that the elections would be free, fair and credible, there are still doubts.

Notable individuals and groups, within and outside the country, have tasked INEC on transparent elections. Recently, Abdulsalami Abubakar, a former head of state, who also is championing the peace pact among the presidential candidates, urged the Commission to be transparent.

Those who nurse doubts over the possibility of a transparent conduct and supervision by the Commission and the security agencies easily point to the offseason gubernatorial election in Osun State last September, which they alleged was neither transparent nor credible.

The claim by the INEC that the

gubernatorial election was inconclusive, necessitating a run-off was at variance with the general belief and reports by those who monitored the voting. The popular belief was that the Osun election was won and lost on the first round of the exercise and did not need a run-off.

Although the veracity of the allegations is yet to be established, it is however, on this premise that those who may have doubted the impartiality of the electoral umpire based their suspicion.

Nigerians have urged the Commission’s officials to allow their consciences guide them in the conduct of the elections beginning tomorrow without pandering to any political party or politician.

Analysts have said that the 2019 general election may witness the employment of numerous “zeros” in a bid to run away with victory.

According to them, the “power of zero” is a rigging method; a manipulation of total votes cast by simply adding a zero or a multiple of it, depending on the situation that arises, to knock off a powerful contender, who probably may be coasting home to victory.

It is also said that those who determine the ultimate winner are not the voters but those that count the votes. A former Chief of Staff to President Nixon (former president of America) said that what matters in America is not vote, but those who count it.

In the same view, Joseph Stalin, a former secretary-general of the Communist Party of Soviet Russia, was quoted as saying: “It isn’t the people who vote that count. It is the people that count the votes.”

Pundits have therefore, urged the INEC to resist the temptation

of employing this strategy in favour of anybody.

Chairman of the Commission, Mahmood Yakubu, has at various fora, reassured Nigerians of the determination of the institution to conduct credible elections.

Festus Okoye, national commissioner and chairman, information and voter education for the Commission, at a recent interactive session with journalists in Lagos, re-echoed the pledge, saying: “We are not pandering to anybody; we are doing our work to the best of our knowledge and in the interest of our people and our country, Nigeria. The only thing we are interested in doing is to conduct free, fair and transparent elections. We will insist that political parties that are registered in Nigeria obey the constitution and also the law. If you fall outside the radar, we will

apply the law the way we understand it.”

Okoye promised that the Commission would do its work “the way we understand it.” Interestingly, he did not forget that after work is done, judgment would follow: from Nigerians and from history.

Continuing, Okoye said: “I want to assure you that the INEC is committed to this election. I also want to assure you that the members of the Commission have the courage and the presence of mind to do what is right.’’

He declared that INEC’s commitment “is to conduct an election that the Nigerian people will be proud of. I believe that with the support of the media, and with the support and collaboration of the security agencies and the Nigerian people, we can achieve this particular feat. The election is already

here; the time for grammar is over.

This is the time for action, and we are already doing that action.”

On the part of the security agents also, many Nigerians have expressed lack of confidence, saying that their body language does not hold any hope of impartiality.

Observers point to several cases of partiality exhibited by security agents in recent times, which they believe could be carried into the elections in favour of some candidates and parties against others. The fear of intimidation and compromise of the security agents was responsible for the hullabaloo that greeted the recent reposting of senior Police officers.

So, as Nigerians go to the polls tomorrow and on March 2nd, this point is clear: nothing else would matter more than a transparent exercise.

Presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and former Vice President of Nigeria, Atiku Abubakar addressing the mammoth crowd at the grand finale of the Peoples Democratic Party presidential election campaign in Yola, Adamawa State on Thursday.

NGO seeks inclusive governance to facilitate economic prosperity ANIEFIOK UDONQUAK, Uyo

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e b e t k a c h e Wo m e n Development and Resource Centre, a Non Governmental Organisation (NGO) focusing on critical women’s voices, their issues and actions tied to anti-corruption and accountability has called for inclusive governance to fast track economic prosperity.

It also observes the connection between corruption and women’s lack of access to public services in-

cluding access to health, access to education, water, transportation, agriculture a well as participation in decision making.

Emem Okon, executive director of the group, stated this during a town hall meeting in Eket, Akwa Ibom State that inclusive governance would also ensure that women have access to employment and support for their businesses.

The town hall meeting which was part of the 16 days of activism against Gender Based Violence noted the significance of the day

saying that it helps to create tools to pressure governments to implement promises made to eliminate violence against women.

According to her, It would also help to establish a link between local and international work to end violence against women.

She called on the society to respect the human rights of women adding that when there is equality, justice and freedom, it would prevent violence pointing out that whenever and ‘’wherever humanity’s values are abandoned , we all

are at a greater risk , we need to stand up for our rights and those of others,’’ she said.

In his presentation, Tijah Bolton Akpan on open government partnership, he identified corruption as the major obstacle to development in Nigeria over the years noting that transparency, accountability, citizen participation as well as technology innovation are the four principles of open governance partnership which the country had signed on it.

He said the open governance

partnership would ensure fiscal transparency, anti corruption campaign, access to information and citizens’engagement and empowerment.

According to him, while it is not mandatory that state government should sign on to the open governance partnership, it is advisable that they should do so to enhance good governance and to foster socio-economic development adding that there are also financial incentives from international development partners for states that join the partnership.

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Tinubu urges Lagos APC members to vote en masse for Buhari, Osinbajo

…Says, ‘I am not here to make promises’ Zebulon Agomuo

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he National Leader of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and Co-Chairman of the APC Presidential Campaign council, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, has urged all registered members of the party in Lagos to vote massively for President Muhammadu Buhari and his running mate, Vice President Yemi Osinbajo, on Saturday.

Tinubu made the appeal at the Police College ground, Ikeja, Lagos at a stakeholders’ meeting.

The former governor of Lagos State also informed the members that he was not at the meeting to buy anybody’s votes or make impossible promises, but to inform them that there would be good reward after they must have done their part by returning the party to power.

He emphasized that returning Buhari and Osinbajo to office was a duty that every true member of the APC would perform, promising that they would not regret it.

Tinubu, who said he had to ask

L-R: Oluranti Adebule, deputy governor of Lagos State; Bola Ahmed Tinubu, national leader, APC; Tunde Balogun, chairman, APC Lagos, and Tunji Bello, secretary to state government and other party leaders, at the stakeholders’ meeting in Ikeja, yesterday.

the President to allow him come to Lagos to share love and fellowship at this auspicious time, said: “I am seriously needed in Abuja because of the national election, but I had

Agbakoba berates Attorney-general over letter to INEC requesting election postponement

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lisa Agbakoba, a human rights lawyer, has expressed shock over a purported letter written by the Attorney-General of the Federation, Abubakar Malami, to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) requesting the postponement of the Zamfara State elections.

Agbakoba berated the AGF, stressing that only the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) has the power to advocate for a postponement of the elections in Zamfara State, if there was anything necessitating that.

The Senior Advocate of Nigeria (SAN) noted that the AGF letter was against the commitment of President Muhammadu Buhari who have on different occasions reiterated his administration’s commitment to conduct free and fair elections in the country.

Ac c o rd i n g t o h i m, “ I a m shocked by your letter to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) on the above subject. You are the Attorney-General of the Federation and not the Attorney-General

of INEC. INEC is an independent institution and cannot take directives from the Federal Government.

“If there is need for the postponement of the Zamfara State elections as indicated in your letter, the proper person to request the postponement is the All Progressive Congress (APC).

In any case, Sections 38 and 39 of the Electoral Act 2010 which your request is based on have nothing to do with postponement of elections.

“President Mohammadu Buhari has at various fora undertaken that the Federal Government will not interfere with INEC. Your letter puts that commitment to question.”

The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) declared the All Progressives Congress (APC) ineligible to field candidates for all elective positions in Zamfara State in the 2019 general elections.

The commission said the party failed to meet the October 7, 2018 deadline for conduct of primaries to elect candidates for the elections.

to explain to the President to allow me come down to Lagos because I must show my love in Lagos today (yesterday) being Valentine Day.” “This is Valentine, but do not ex-

pect anything from me. I have not come here to buy anybody’s vote. I have not come to make promises.

Go and vote; reward will come later,” he further said.

He also used the opportunity to commend members who sacrificed their personal ambition in the interest of the party.

He said that a good number of those who ordinarily merited the positions they wanted to contest for, voluntarily allowed the decision of the party to prevail, adding that there are some others that gave their slots to others in the interest of the party.

The national leader praised Oluranti Adebule, deputy governor of Lagos State, for her loyalty to the party and for her team spirit. He also commended all the leaders of the party who played active roles in the reconciliation of some aggrieved members over certain disagreements that arose from the primaries.

Earlier, in his remarks, Tunde Balogun, state party chairman, said: “This is a critical moment for our party and indeed our country.

Asiwaju finds it imperative to address all members of APC in Lagos.

By the grace of God, we will call you here again to rejoice after the re-election of the President and the Vice President.”

2019: INEC must respect will of Nigerians, says Bode George …Says Judiciary under siege Iniobong Iwok

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head of tomorrow’s Presidential and National Assembly election, former Deputy National chairman South-West of Nigeria’s main opposition party, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), Olabode George, has warned the Independent Electoral Commission (INEC) that the will of Nigerians must be respected in the election.

George said this at a press conference, Thursday, in his office at Ikoyi, Lagos State, noting that there could be serious consequences if the result of the election does not reflect the will of Nigerians.

George further said that the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and incumbent Muhammadu Buhari must not force itself on Nigerians when it was obvious that the party has been rejected by the citizenry.

According to him, “INEC must prove to us that this election is free and fair, and we are watching Nigerians must be prayerful that we would remember this election month positively; we have reached a stage where you cannot force yourself on the people; Britain and the US are looking at Nigeria. We saw it when election was rigged in 1966, in

…As ACPN, ADC adopt Atiku

western Nigeria; I was still small and in school, it started like this and we saw the consequences that followed.

“I am begging you that you cannot perpetuate yourself in office, and you are saying by force you must remain in office even when Nigerians have rejected you. No nation goes into civil war twice and survives, let the will of the people prevail,” George said.

He lamented the suspension of the Chief Justice of Nigerian, Justice Walter Onnoghen by President Buhari in violation of the judgment of the court, warning that recent events had shown that the Judiciary was under siege.

“The Judiciary is the last hope of the common man, the sanctity of the judiciary must be maintained, no other arm of government can control the other; if you now decide to be controlling the Judiciary, it means you are becoming authoritative.

They have their rules.”

George urged Nigerians to vote for Atiku Abubakar, the candidate of the PDP in Saturday’s presidential election, stressing that his promise to restructure the country was what Nigeria urgently needed.

“Restructuring of the country is inevitable, it is an adjustment of the present system of government and it is now obvious that the present

system is not working; Atiku is the man to deliver us,” George added.

Meanwhile, a faction of the Allied Congress Party of Nigeria (ACPN) and the African Democratic Congress (ADC) has adopted Atiku Abubakar for Saturday’s presidential election.

The parties in separate press conference, Thursday, in Ikoyi, pledged to work towards the victory of the PDP candidate and his running mate in tomorrow election.

However, the ACPN, led by its National Treasurer, Angus Uzoamaka, dissociated itself from the purported defection of four members of the party to the APC, stressing that the decision was against the party’s interest.

“By this declaration we urge all members and supporter nationwide who have consented to this movement are hereby urged to change plans immediately and move into PDP campaign train and work for Atiku”.

The ADC led by its Lagos State chairman, Kayode Jacob, said it decided to support Atiku for the presidential election because his vision for the country was in accordance with the party’s programme for Nigeria, urging the INEC that the general election must be free and fair.

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ManagementDigest

43

Data science and the art of persuasion Scott Berinato Organizations struggle to communicate the insights in all the information they’ve amassed. Here’s why, and how to fix it.

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any companies aren’t getting the value they could from data science. Efforts fall short in the last mile, when it comes time to explain the stuff to decision-makers.

In my work lecturing and consulting with large organizations on data visualization and persuasive presentations, I hear both data scientists and executives vent their frustration. In the rush to grab in-demand data scientists, organizations have been hiring the most technically oriented people they can find, ignoring their ability or desire (or lack thereof) to communicate with a lay audience. That would be fine if those organizations also hired other people to close the gap — but they don’t.

To begin solving the last-mile problem, companies must stop looking for unicorns and rethink what kind of talent makes up a data science operation. A team approach can get data science operations over the last mile, delivering the value they’ve created for the organization.

WHY ARE THINGS LIKE THIS? In the early 20th century, pioneers of modern management ran sophisticated operations for turning data into decisions through visual communication, and they did it with teams. In the 1970s things started to split.

Scientists flocked to new technology that allowed them to visualize data in the same space where they manipulated it. Visuals were crude but available fast and required no help from anyone else.

Chart Wizard, Microsoft’s innovation in Excel, introduced “click and viz” for the rest of us,

fully cleaving the two worlds.

The profoundness of this shift can’t be overstated. It changed the structure of work. Visualization became the job of those who managed data, most of whom were neither trained to visualize nor inclined to learn.

With the advent of data science, the expectations put on data scientists have remained the same even as the requisite skills have broadened to include coding, statistics and algorithmic modeling. A rare combination of skills for the most sought-after jobs means that many organizations will be unable to recruit the talent they need. The best way is to change the skill set they expect data scientists to have and rebuild teams with a combination of talents.

BUILDING A BETTER DATA SCIENCE OPERATION An effective data operation based on teamwork will account for the modern context, including the volume of data being processed, the automation of systems and advances in visualization techniques. Here are four steps to creating one: 1. DEFINE TALENTS, NOT TEAM MEMBERS. Rather than assign people to roles, define the talents you need to be successful. A talent is not a person;

it’s a skill that one or more people possess.

Any company’s list of talents will vary, but a good core set includes these six: — PROJECT MANAGEMENT. A good project manager will have great organizational abilities and strong diplomacy skills, helping to bridge cultural gaps by bringing disparate talents together at meetings and getting all team members to speak the same language.

— DATA WRANGLING. Skills that compose this talent include building systems; finding, cleaning and structuring data; and creating and maintaining algorithms and other statistical engines.

— DATA ANALYSIS. The ability to set hypotheses and test them, find meaning in data and apply that to a specific business context is crucial. Good data analysis is separate from coding and math. Often this talent emerges not from computer science but from the liberal arts.

— SUBJECT EXPERTISE. People with knowledge of the business and the strategy will inform project design and data analysis and keep the team focused on business outcomes, not just on building the best statistical models.

— DESIGN. Good design isn’t just choosing colors and

fonts or coming up with an aesthetic for charts. People with design talent develop and execute systems for effective visual communication.

— STORYTELLING. The ability to present data insights as a story will, more than anything else, help close the communication gap between algorithms and executives.

2. HIRE TO CREATE A PORTFOLIO OF NECESSARY TALENTS. Once you’ve identified the talents you need, free your recruiting from the idea that these are roles you should hire people to fill. Instead, focus on making sure these talents are available on the team. Thinking of talents as separate from people will help companies address the last-mile problem because it will free them from trying to find the person who can both do data science and communicate it.

3. EXPOSE TEAM MEMBERS TO TALENTS THEY DON’T HAVE. Overcoming culture clashes begins with understanding others’ experiences.

There are many ways to expose team members to the value of others’ talents. The chief algorithms officer at Stitch Fix, Eric Colson, asks his team members to make one-minute presentations to nontechnical audiences, forcing them to frame problems in smart ways that everyone can understand.

Exposure is meant to create empathy among team members with differing talents. Empathy, in turn, creates trust — a necessary basis for effective teamwork.

4. STRUCTURE PROJECTS AROUND TALENTS. Strong project management skills and experience in agile methodologies will help in planning the configuration and reconfiguration of talents, marshaling resources as needed and keeping schedules from overwhelming any part of the process.

PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER — ASSIGN A SINGLE, EM-

2017 Harvard Business School Publishing Corp. Distributed by The New York Times Syndicate

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POWERED STAKEHOLDER. Stakeholders will most often be people with business expertise who are closely connected to or responsible for business goals; the aim of the work, after all, is better business outcomes.

Those people can create shared goals and incentives for the team.

— ASSIGN LEADING TALENT AND SUPPORT TALENT. Who leads and who supports will depend on what kind of project it is and what phase it’s in.

— CO-LOCATE. Have all team members work in the same physical space during a project. Also, set up a shared virtual space for communication and collaboration.

— MAKE IT A REAL TEAM. The crucial conceit in co-location is that it’s one empowered team. At Stitch Fix “our rule is no handoffs,” Colson says. He has made it a priority to ensure that his teams have all the skills they need to accomplish their goals with limited external support.

— REUSE AND TEMPLATE. Colson also created an “algo UI [user interface] team.” Think of this as a group of people who combine their design talents and data wrangling talents to create reusable code sets for producing good dataviz for the project teams.

THE PRESENTATION OF data science to lay audiences hasn’t evolved as rapidly or as fully as the science’s technical part. It must catch up, and that means rethinking how data science teams are put together, how they’re managed and who’s involved at every point in the process.

Scott Berinato is a senior editor at Harvard Business Review and the author of “Good Charts Workbook: Tips Tools and Exercises for Making Better Data Visualizations” and “Good Charts: The HBR Guide to Making Smarter, More Persuasive Data Visualizations.”

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World Business Newspaper

US and China resume trade talks amid impasse over state subsidies Washington argues Beijing’s backing of Chinese companies distorts markets Tom Mitchell

C

hinese vice-premier Liu He and US trade representative Robert Lighthizer resumed trade negotiations in Beijing on Thursday as markets grow more optimistic they can avoid an escalation of the trade war between the world’s two largest economies.

However, while sentiment over the talks drove Chinese stocks higher this week and helped European stocks to touch a three-month high on Thursday, analysts warned significant obstacles remained to reaching a deal.

The biggest impediment to an agreement by March 1, when US President Donald Trump has threatened to double the tariff currently assessed on about half of all Chinese imports, is disagreement over the backing Chinese companies enjoy from myriad government subsidies, industrial policies and state-owned banks.

Mr Trump and Mr Lighthizer have repeatedly said that the Chinese government must overhaul or eliminate such support programmes. In his State of the Union address earlier this month, Mr Trump pledged that any deal ending the current trade war would include “real structural change to end unfair trade practices”.

US officials argue that Chinese subsidies distort markets and competition around the world. In two

reports issued last year about allegedly unfair Chinese trade practices, Mr Lighthizer’s agency focused most of its criticism on Beijing’s support for companies investing or operating overseas and on its efforts to promote the development of electric and other “new energy” vehicles.

Chinese negotiators are instead hoping that Mr Trump, in a possible meeting with Chinese president Xi Jinping next month, will agree to a trade deal that focuses on more purchases of US commodities and greater market access for American companies, but will do little to change the workings of China’s stateled economy.

While Mr Lighthizer argues that support for Chinese companies’ overseas operations “undermines US firms’ ability to compete in the global marketplace on a level playing field”, Mr Liu is not budging. According to people briefed on the trade talks, Mr Liu’s negotiating team has signalled a willingness to be more transparent about Beijing’s various subsidy regimes but is unwilling to scrap or significantly amend any policies singled out by the US. Many Chinese officials and analysts view the Trump administration’s demands for difficult structural reforms as an attempt to undermine the country’s successful economic development model. “The US should not request China to change its laws and political and economic system based on its own system,” said Jia Jinjing, a finance expert at Renmin University in Beijing. “The [primacy

Top investors call on Deutsche to cut back US investment bank

Four top 10 shareholders want more decisive action on faltering operation

Patrick Jenkins, Olaf Storbeck and Stephen Morris

S

everal of Deutsche Bank’s biggest shareholders are calling for its chief executive to make deeper cuts to its perennially lossmaking US investment bank as they run out of patience with the lender’s poor performance and tumbling share price.

Four of the 10 biggest shareholders in Germany’s largest bank have told the Financial Times that they want Christian Sewing to take more decisive action in turning round the faltering division, particularly in the US. The pressure on Mr Sewing has risen as Deutsche Bank’s share price has fallen by a third in the 10 months since he took over. One of the investors said they told the bank recently that they wanted it to shrink the US investment bank by this summer.

At least four members of Deutsche Bank’s supervisory board share the view that further cuts to the US investment bank are necessary, people familiar with their thinking told the FT. There are also doubts over the position of Garth Ritchie, head of Deutsche Bank’s investment bank. “Christian needs to make a change in the next few

months,” one big investor said, referring to a potential management shake-up.

Last September, the supervisory board unanimously extended Mr Ritchie’s contract for five years. But the FT reported last November that members of the supervisory board were pushing for his removal and since then concerns have grown over whether he is the right person for the job.

Revenue has dropped by a third at Deutsche’s investment bank over the past three years, with analysts expecting another decline this year. According to a person briefed on the matter, its US investment bank has been lossmaking in nine of the past 10 years. Last year, it was put on a federal list of problem banks.

After his appointment last April, Mr Sewing made some cuts to the investment bank, particularly equities and prime brokerage services for hedge funds.

Overall, it shed 7 per cent of its front office investment banking staff and is poised to cut bonuses.

Cerberus, which has a 3 per cent stake in Deutsche Bank, has deployed former JPMorgan executive Matt Zames to probe how the German lender’s balance sheet and capital could be better used.

Robert Lighthizer. Liu He and Steven Mnuchin speak before the opening session of trade negotiations at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse in Beijing © EPA

of] China’s state economy is written into the constitution. If you admit that China is an independent country, you should admit that it is entitled to have its own characteristics.”

The gulf between the two sides’ positions on such “structural” issues was illustrated in a report issued earlier this month by the Office of the US Trade Representative, which accused China of failing to comply with World Trade Organization disclosure requirements for central and local government subsidy programmes.

“Since joining the WTO 17 years ago, China has not yet submitted to the WTO a complete notification of subsidies maintained by the central

government,” the report said, adding that Beijing “did not notify [the WTO of] a single [local] government subsidy until July 2016”. For its part, the Chinese government has long insisted that it is in full compliance with all of its WTO obligations.

Even if Mr Liu is willing and able to come up with what Mr Lighthizer agrees to be a WTO-compliant accounting of all central and local government subsidies in China, negotiating significant changes to any of them ahead of a presidential summit next month is another challenge entirely.

“Transparency would be a first step before prohibition, but even

that would be difficult,” said James Green, a senior fellow at Georgetown University and former head of the USTR’s Beijing office.

Mr Green noted that even if Beijing agrees to scrap a specific subsidy programme, there can be many other funding channels for pet industrial projects, especially at a time when Mr Xi has been emphasising the need for China to become “selfreliant” in a number of technology sectors. “The broader problem is that provincial and party officials look at the outcomes of [party] plenums and Xi Jinping’s speeches,” he said. “They will use their considerable financial muscle to fund these programmes.”

How Santander kept a $200bn bond market guessing High drama over Spanish bank’s decision not to repay €1.5bn capital bond

Robert Smith

S

antander’s dramatic withdrawal of an offer to hire Andrea Orcel as its chief executive may have seized the headlines in recent weeks, but the Spanish lender’s decision to not honour a “gentleman’s agreement” in the bank bond market could prove more consequential.

Late on Tuesday, Santander announced that it had decided against early repayment of a €1.5bn capital bond, defying the expectations of many analysts who had argued just a week earlier that such an outcome was a near certainty.

But while Mr Orcel is preparing to mount legal action against Santander over the bank’s rescinded offer, aggrieved bondholders who saw the value of their debt fall sharply have no such recourse: the bank had absolutely no obligation to repay — or “call” — the bond at this time.

While the furore may perplex outside observers, it was a watershed in the $200bn market for “additional tier 1” (AT1) or “coco” bonds, the riskiest type of bank debt that can be written off in times of stress.

The European market has long relied on an understanding that

banks will repay their bonds at the first opportunity. A rare decision

by Deutsche Bank not to call such a bond a decade ago sent tremors through the market at the height of the financial crisis.

However, European regulators do not want banks to honour this gentleman’s agreement if it would increase the bank’s interest bill.

This is because policymakers designed coco bonds after the financial crisis to bolster banks’ balance sheets, making them more resilient, not less.

One senior debt market banker said that the treasury departments of several other banks were running sweepstakes on whether Santander would call the bond or not, reflecting just how much debate there was in the days leading up to the decision.

This uncertainty did not even exist just a fortnight ago. Then, few people in the market were suggesting that such a call was even a possibility. Santander’s management reiterated on a late January investor call that they would only make a repayment if it made economic sense.

But then Santander completed an unusual deal last Wednesday, which prompted many investors to change their prediction. The Spanish bank launched a new $1.2bn AT1 bond sale, which seemed

designed to fund a looming repayment of the existing bond.

The impression that a repayment was imminent, was strengthened by the deal’s unusual timing and structure. Santander issued the bond during the Chinese new year holidays, meaning that important buyers such as Asian private banks would be out of action. To some, that suggested that the bank was in a hurry to fund the call.

The rush proved costly for the banks managing the sale as they were not able to fully sell the $1.2bn deal to investors, so had to take some of the bonds on to their own balance sheets. A person familiar with the matter said underwriters were only left holding a “very small amount”, however.

The bond also had an unusually short settlement date of two days, meaning that Santander would have the money in its hands last Friday — which investors believed was the bank’s deadline for calling the coco. This is because a notice had to be filed 30 days before March 12, which fell on a Sunday.

But the bank then told investors that they actually had until Tuesday February 12 to make a decision.

This is because the bank had legal advice that 30 days should be interpreted as a month, disregarding that there are 28 days in February.

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FT America’s unexpected socialist dawn Democrats embrace radical policies to create rare ideological debate in US politics

Ramaphosa struggles to shine a light on South African graft

Edward Luce

Eskom’s blackouts are part of a wider story of a country riddled with corruption

A

nyone who thinks America’s populist moment has passed should think again. Donald Trump promised to make America great again. Half of the Democratic party now vows to make their country socialist for the first time. Much that is solid is melting into air. A few years ago, most Democrats were scared to call themselves liberal.

Now they embrace socialism with abandon.

It may end in tears. A defeat to Mr Trump in 2020 would deliver an early grave to America’s socialist dawn. Until then, however, US voters are catching a glimpse of something rare — a genuine ideological debate. It would be rash to predict the outcome.

The chief exhibit is Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s Green New Deal.

By any measure, her bill is preposterously extravagant. On one estimate Ms Ocasio-Cortez’s proposed new entitlements and public works would cost $6.6tn a year, which is two-thirds larger again than America’s $4tn federal budget.

Nothing like it has been seen.

Moreover, Ms Ocasio-Cortez seems to have little idea how she would pay for it. Some say the bill would be self-funding because it would stimulate the economy. Others are punting on cost-free debt. According to modern monetary theory, governments can simply create new money without causing inflation.

Few Democrats are yet concerned with such details. Having watched Mr Trump take office with his brand of magical thinking, they are following suit. It would be tempting to write it off as a lengthy suicide note. But that would underestimate America’s restlessness. Almost every Democratic presidential hopeful in the Senate — including Kamala Harris, Cory Booker, Elizabeth Warren and Kirsten Gillibrand — supports Ms Ocasio-Cortez’s resolution. It has turned into a litmus test of a candidate’s credentials.

There are three reasons to take it seriously.

The first is that the Green New Deal is already branded in the public’s mind. Just as Ms Ocasio-Cortez is known by her initials — AOC — her bill is already known by its shorthand, GND. Few politicians, or bills, make that distinction. Think of John F Kennedy (JFK) or Franklin Delano Roosevelt (FDR). The fact that a 29-year-old former bartender has gone from zero to ubiquitous abbreviation in a few months tells us something about America’s appetite for change. She is now the most influential figure in US politics after Mr Trump.

Second, Ms Ocasio-Cortez’s resolution is a bold declaration of intent rather than a serious legislative proposal. Much as Mr Trump’s supporters were said to have taken him seriously but not literally, the same applies to the green deal.

Those doing the accounting may be missing the point. Its aim is to shake up the US debate. By that measure it has already succeeded. The term “green” is no longer a lifestyle preference. It is a part of the economic calculus. Global warming and public investment are now linked in the popular mind.

David Pilling

A

Mike Pence, US vice-president, told a Warsaw summit that European allies should withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal © AP

Mike Pence accuses European allies of trying to break Iran sanctions Speech by US vice-president exposes rift over how to deal with Tehran James Shotter, Evon Huber and Henry Foy

M

ike Pence has accused some of Washington’s traditional European allies of trying to break US sanctions on Iran, as the Trump administration ratchets up its efforts to build a coalition against the Islamic Republic.

Speaking during a US-led conference on the Middle East in Warsaw on Thursday, the US vice-president called on Europe to follow America in abandoning a landmark deal struck three years ago to stop Iran acquiring nuclear weapons.

In a speech that laid bare the gulf between Washington and Europe over how to deal with Tehran, Mr Pence reserved particular criticism for Germany, France and the UK, which two weeks ago set up a mechanism to keep trade links with Iran open. US officials see the initiative as an attempt to circumvent sanctions imposed by the US last year. “[This is] an ill-advised step that will only strengthen Iran, weaken the EU and create still more distance between Europe and the US,” Mr Pence said.

“The time has come for our European partners to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal and join with us as we bring the economic and diplo-

matic pressure necessary to give the Iranian people, the region and the world the peace, security and freedom they deserve.”

Mr Pence’s comments came as Hassan Rouhani, Iran’s president, joined Vladimir Putin, his Russian counterpart, and Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan for talks on Syria in the Russian coastal resort of Sochi. Ahead of the discussions, the Russian and Iranian leaders reaffirmed the close ties between their countries.

Since Donald Trump became US president, big differences have emerged between Washington and the EU on how to prevent Iran gaining nuclear weapons. The US withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal last year and has reimposed sanctions on Tehran, while EU nations have been trying to keep the pact alive.

The divisions have come to the fore in the run-up to the summit in Warsaw, to which Iran has not been invited. Originally billed by Mr Pompeo as an event focused on Iran, its official scope was subsequently broadened to cover a host of regional issues after some invitees balked at the prospect of an openly anti-Iran agenda.

In a sign of European reservations, the EU, France and Germany did not send their most senior officials to the gathering, which is being attended by around 60 nations including the US,

Israel, and various Middle Eastern and European states.

However, any lingering impression that the summit was not aimed squarely at building a coalition against Iran was dispelled by Mr Pence’s speech, in which he said that participants had agreed Iran was “the greatest threat to peace and security in the Middle East”.

“The Iranian regime is the leading state sponsor of terrorism in the world. They have bombed the American embassies, murdered hundreds of American troops and even to this day they hold hostage citizens of the US and other western nations,” he added, before accusing Iran of defying UN sanctions, wanting to destroy the state of Israel and plotting terror attacks on European soil.

Iran has dismissed the gathering as a “circus” and its foreign minister on Wednesday played down the chances of anything tangible emerging from it. “I believe it is dead on arrival,” Mohammad Javad Zarif told foreign media in Tehran. “It’s another attempt by the US to pursue an obsession with Iran that is not well founded.”

Tehran and Moscow have built warmer ties since western sanctions were first imposed on Russia in 2014, amid attempts by Mr Putin to move closer to other adversaries of Washington.

US key holiday retail sales shrink by most since 2009

Markets caught off-guard by December’s drop in consumer spending Sam Fleming and Peter Wells

U

S retail sales unexpectedly plunged in December by the most since 2009, sending a worrying signal about a critical month for consumer spending that unsettled global markets.

Treasuries soared following the data, while US stocks and the dollar turned negative. Headline retail sales dropped 1.2 per cent month-on-month, a sharp turn from November’s 0.1 per cent gain, and far worse than the 0.2 per cent increase economists had pencilled in.

The U S retail slump compounds evidence of a slowdown in the broader economy, coming on the same day as separate figures pointing to a rise in claims for jobless benefits last week. Economists said December’s seasonally adjusted retail data may be exaggerating the weakness in US consumer spending, but the numbers will only add to the Federal Reserve’s determination to keep interest rates on hold for the time being.

The retail numbers revealed widespread weakness across a range of

spending categories. The “control” category of sales — which strips out items including cars, petrol, building materials, and food services — fell by a steeper amount, 1.7 per cent, in the month, the poorest reading since 2001. JPMorgan Chase analysts slashed their estimate for annualised growth in gross domestic product to 2 per cent for the fourth quarter, from 2.6 per cent previously.

Stripping out seasonal factors from December’s spending is a difficult statistical process, and some analysts said data may overstate the extent of December’s deterioration. The weakness in December may in part have been payback for exaggerated strength in October and November, said Jim O’Sullivan of High Frequency Economics. Overall consumer spending still rose an annualised 2.5 per cent during the fourth quarter by his estimate, and retailers went on to add 21,000 jobs in January.

The release of Thursday’s data had been delayed by the partial government shutdown that began in late December and lasted 35 days. Nevertheless, the Census Bureau insisted that “processing and data quality were

monitored throughout and response rates were at or above normal levels for this release.”

The retail numbers are by no means the only sign of a slowdown in the US. Optimism among consumers and small businesses retreated in January as the federal shutdown damped spirits. The picture overseas is worse — indicators of global trade and manufacturing activity have been retreating as worries about trade tensions and slowdowns in China and Europe affect corporate sentiment.

“Until this morning’s release, Fed official hesitance to hike further was based on risks emanating from global growth and from financial markets, despite a strong domestic outlook,” said Andrew Hollenhorst at Citi. “The decline in retail sales calls into question the domestic growth assumption.”

Treasuries leapt higher after the release of the numbers, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury 5.6 basis points lower at 2.65 per cent.

It had dropped as much as 6.1 bps following the release. The yield on the two-year, which is more sensitive to Federal Reserve policy expectations, was down 5.2 bps at 2.4874 per cent.

nd then the lights went out.

If ever a sign were needed that President Cyril Ramaphosa’s honeymoon is truly over, being plunged into darkness is it.

One year into his presidency, Eskom, South Africa’s state electricity “provider”, has begun rolling blackouts across the industrialised nation of 56m people. This week, Eskom, which produces virtually all the country’s electricity, said it would cut 4,000 megawatts of power — its official capacity is 45,000MW — because of the unforeseen loss of six generating units.

Eskom’s announcement came just days after Mr Ramaphosa disclosed a plan to break the lossmaking entity into three divisions (generation, transmission and distribution), raising suspicion of sabotage. Could the heavily unionised fiefdom be sending a message of displeasure about a reorganisation that could lead to job losses and privatisations? The alternative to sabotage is hardly more encouraging: Eskom has been so run down and mismanaged that its infrastructure is collapsing. It is a gargantuan $30bn in debt. Either way, Mr Ramaphosa is struggling to keep the lights on.

A year ago, Mr Ramaphosa, a former union boss turned tycoon, pushed Jacob Zuma out of office. That was supposed to draw a line under nine years of galloping corruption and “state capture”, the systematic ransacking of institutions to facilitate the plunder of state resources. The hope among millions of South Africans, alarmed that their country was becoming a mafia state, was that Mr Ramaphosa could reverse the rot. Such was the relief, they called it “Ramaphoria”. Since then, both the scale of Mr Ramaphosa’s task and the formidable obstacles in his path have become all too apparent. Call it the “Ramaphications” of South Africa’s sorry slide.

In the past year, evidence has spilled out of just how riddled with corruption the South African state has become. At the so-called Zondo Commission of inquiry, Angelo Agrizzi gave lurid evidence of bribes handed out like “monopoly money” to government officials. Mr Agrizzi, former chief operating officer of Bosasa, a domestic logistics company, filmed himself in a vault full of cash from which he said up to $444,000 was doled out in payouts every month.

Mr Agrizzi told the inquiry, testimony from which was beamed live across a drop-jawed nation, that he funnelled a monthly $22,000 to Mr Zuma through the president’s close friend Dudu Myeni, the former chair of South African Airways. Under her watch, the state airline careered Eskomlike towards bankruptcy. Both Mr Zuma and Ms Myeni have consistently denied wrongdoing.

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@ FINANCIAL TIMES LIMITED

Stocks knocked by weak data

Surprise fall in US retail sales adds to worries after Germany narrowly avoids recession Michael Hunter and Alice Woodhouse

W

eak US retail sales data unnerved stock markets, leading to a weaker Wall Street open, while European equities came off threemonth highs as momentum from robust earnings news waned.

The bleak American data followed numbers that showed Germany only narrowly avoided a return to recession in the fourth quarter. Both reports underlined the fragile state of the global economy as investors continued to wait for signs of progress on the trade dispute between the US and China, with high-level talks between the countries under way.

New York’s S&P 500 opened down 0.6 per cent after the 1.2 per cent fall in December retail sales came as the largest such decline since September 2009, during the financial crisis. The data were expected to show growth of 0.1 per cent.

Europe’s Stoxx 600 slipped 0.2 per cent overall, coming off some of its highest readings since November, with the earnings-inspired rally looking overdone as sentiment soured.

The move away from riskier assets went far enough to draw investors into havens, pushing down Treasury yields and lifting gold prices. The yield on 10-year US government debt fell 6 basis points amid the demand for it, and gold rose 0.4 per cent to $1.311 an ounce.

German growth data for the fourth quarter unexpectedly hit the flatline, having been expected to rise 0.1 per cent from the previous three months, coming as a reminder of the trade dispute coinciding with faltering GDP around the world.

The shared currency was up 0.1 per cent to $1.1280 after falling to its lowest level since November — $1.1245 — earlier in the session.

Equities Frankfurt’s Xetra Dax 30 fell 0.6 per cent, while London’s FTSE 100 bucked the trend, helped by a weaker pound. The main UK stock index ticked up 0.2 per cent.

It was a brighter day for mainland China’s stocks. The China’s CSI 300 rose 0.2 per cent, having climbed 2 per cent on Wednesday on hopes for firm signs of an improvement in trade relations with the US. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slipped 0.2 per cent, with technology and consumer cyclical stocks falling.

Japan’s Topix held steady after data showed Japan’s economy returned to growth in the final quarter of 2018.

Forex and fixed income Sterling retested lows last seen in mid-January, when parliament voted down the terms of the government’s Brexit deal, as the turbulent Westminster politics over the terms of the UK’s departure from the EU continued. The pound fell 0.3 per cent to $1.2806, with MPs due to vote on three proposed changes to the deal.

The dollar index weakened 0.1 per cent but remained near a twomonth high.

Commodities Oil prices ended their climb, which had followed comments from Saudi Arabia’s energy minister that the kingdom would limit production.

As worries about an economic slowdown reverberated, Brent crude’s rise of more than 3 per cent for the week looked exposed. It slipped 0.4 per cent to $63.38 a barrel. US marker West Texas Intermediate fell further, down 1.2 per cent at $53.28.

Europe needs its own battery supply chain, Umicore CEO says Henry Sanderson

E

urope needs its own battery supply chain to meet the needs of carmakers as they shift towards electric cars, according to Umicore, the Belgium-based producer of battery materials.

Giant battery factories planned for Hungary, Poland and Germany need to be supplied with materials processed in Europe rather than Asia, Umicore’s chief executive Marc Grynberg said.

“Given the sheer size of the requirements to the European industry similar to what’s happening in Asia it makes most sense in my opinion to have a regional supply chain,” Mr Grynberg told the Financial Times.

Last year the European Commission said it will offer billions of euros of co-funding to companies willing to build giant battery factories on the continent. Over 80 per cent of the world’s existing and planned battery production is in Asia.

The world’s largest battery producers including Korea’s LG Chem, Samsung SDI and SK Innovation have all invested in battery factories in Poland and Hungary. Last month Mercedes-Benz owned Daimler also said it would build a factory in Poland.

China’s CATL, the world’s largest battery producer, said last year that it

will build a factory in Germany.

Still, Europe is set to have far fewer battery factories than China by 2028, according to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence. Europe is expected to have nine plants producing 248 gigawatt hours of batteries, compared to 46 in China producing over 1,000 GWh worth of batteries, it forecasts.

In addition many of the raw materials needed for battery cells are processed in China. Last year China accounted for 66 per cent of global refined cobalt output, according to Darton Commodities.

To redress the balance Umicore is planning to build a plant in Nysa, Poland, to produce battery raw materials, Mr Grynberg said.

“There is a real battery hub emerging there,” he said.

In October Umicore signed an agreement with BMW and emerging Swedish battery producer Northvolt to develop a “complete and sustainable value chain” for electric car battery cells in Europe.

The European car industry needs to rely on recycled supplies of battery raw materials in the future, according to Mr Grynberg. Umicore is currently recycling battery materials from consumer electronics and “a few car batteries” but will be “investing for massive growth there” in the first part of the next decade, he said.

Credit Suisse returns to profit despite Asian trading losses Investment bank drags on earnings, while wealth management and Swiss divisions show resilience Stephen Morris

C

redit Suisse swung to a profit in the last quarter, helping to break a three-year lossmaking streak as growth in wealth management and its Swiss home market overcame another disappointing performance by the bank’s trading business.

Chief executive Tidjane Thiam has transformed the 162-year-old Swiss lender since joining in July 2015, slashing its volatile and capital-intensive trading operations to expand the more profitable and predictable wealth management and private banking units, particularly in Asia.

However, the investment bank remains a persistent drag on earnings more than three years into his overhaul. Analysts said the bank’s pre-tax profits beat expectations in the fourth quarter, helped by costcutting, but its shares fell 1.8 per cent in mid-morning trading on Thursday.

The Zurich-based lender reported a second consecutive quarterly loss in its struggling global markets trading operation, which was offset by increased profits and revenues in its wealth management and Swiss universal banking divisions.

“There was a significant drop off in high-yield trading, leverage finance and the new issue pipeline” with the lack of deals “pretty much unheard of”. head of investor relations Adam Gishen said on a call with reporters.

“It was also really tough in Asian markets, we knew it was coming,

but there was a very very significant fall off in client activity levels, they stepped away from market and took the opportunity to deleverage.”

The bank’s Asian fixed-income sales and trading revenues fell 91 per cent, which it blamed on “the unfavourable trading environment”.

European bank result season Executives reiterated that despite the repeated losses they did not plan to shrink the markets unit any further, arguing it could not get any smaller without losing credibility as a scale player or having a knock-on impact on earnings from ultra-wealthy clients, who use the division’s trading services.

Its assets under management in wealth management fell only 2.1 per cent year on year and incoming net new assets were almost flat compared with $13bn of client outflows at UBS. * “While the Swiss bank and international wealth management did well, global markets disappoints again and posts revenues of less than SFr1bn in a quarter for the first time ever,” said Vontobel analyst Andreas Venditti, who has called for the trading unit to be cut back further.

The struggling global markets trading unit made a second-consecutive quarterly loss, losing SFr193m ($191m) in the period following SFr96m in the third quarter. It also made a SFr195m loss last year.

The weak performance in trading mirrors that of European rivals, such as Deutsche Bank, UBS, BNP Paribas and Société Générale.

Group revenues fell 7 per cent in the quarter to SFr5bn, making it harder for the bank to achieve its profitability target, which is predicated on the measure remaining at least flat. Operating costs fell almost 18 per cent to SFr4.1bn in the quarter.

“Overall, a solid result considering . . . peer group reporting, driven mainly by strong cost management in a difficult environment,” said JPMorgan Chase analyst Kian Abouhossein. “However, operationally there will be some questions with focus in particular on global markets.”

Adjusted group quarterly pre-tax profit rose 49 per cent. Net income climbed to SFr292m in the final three months of 2018 — handily beating analysts’ expectations — compared with a loss of SFr2.1bn last year. On an annual basis, net income rose to SFr2.1bn from an overall SFr983m loss in 2017.

The bank reiterated its goal to make a return on tangible equity (ROTE) of 10 to 11 per cent this year, despite posting a ROTE of 3 per cent in the quarter and 5.5 per cent for the whole of 2018. It also plans to buy back as much as SFr1.5bn of stock this year.

“We experienced widespread volatility and lower activity levels across the market [in the fourth quarter],” said Mr Thiam. “This has improved so far this year, with signs of normalisation in the first six weeks of 2019, leading to a less negative trading environment . . . but [things are] still weaker than in the first quarter of 2018.”

India’s Jet Airways reveals $1.2bn rescue plan to keep flying Lenders led by the State Bank of India will become largest shareholders Stephanie Findlay

J

et Airways reported its fourth consecutive quarterly loss as the board of the struggling Indian carrier approved a $1.2bn rescue package plan to shore up its finances and keep its planes in the air.

In a stock exchange announcement on Thursday, Jet announced a draft plan that would see lenders, led by the State Bank of India, convert debt into equity and make them the largest shareholders.

The plan estimates a funding gap of approximately Rs85bn ($1.2bn), which is to be met by a mix of new equity, debt restructuring and saleor-leaseback of aircraft, said the statement.

The plan, which will allow lenders to nominate directors to its board, will be presented for approval

at a Jet shareholder meeting on February 21. It will be considered by the lenders, a committee of the Indian Banks’ Association; Etihad Airways, the Abu Dhabi carrier that owns 24 per cent of Jet; and Naresh Goyal, founder and chairman of Jet. “It’s a rescue package that works for everyone; the lenders will be in the driving seat,” said Kapil Kaul, South Asia chief for the Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation. “Now we’ll wait to see the structure of the shareholding and, most importantly, how lenders take the next steps in terms of governance and quality of the board.”

Pressure has been piling on Jet to cobble together a bailout package since it stopped paying staff last year. In January, it defaulted on loan repayments and last week, in an ominous sign of its spiralling

problems, ground four aircraft after failing to pay lessors.

The airline reported a net loss of Rs5.9bn for three months to December, down from a loss of Rs13bn in the September quarter.

Analysts expected the losses as Indian airlines reeled from the impact of higher oil prices, a weak rupee and ferocious competition. Rivals SpiceJet and Indigo also saw their profits plunge.

But Jet, which has 124 aircraft in its ageing fleet, is in particular trouble after losing market share for several years to Indigo, the budget carrier that now dominates the domestic market. “It’s a royal mess,” said Neelam Mathews, an independent aviation analyst. It’s likely that chairman Goyal will have to cede control of the airline he founded more than 20 years ago.

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Opinion Land of hope and glory THE NEW WEALTH OF NATIONS

Obadiah Mailafia

D

espondency, like its opposite, joy, is a matter of choice. A lot of people across our country feel very despondent at present. They feel pessimistic about the future and what it portends. They also see no possible positive outcome from the coming elections.

For my part, I choose to be joyful and optimistic.

You can call me naïve or whatever. For me, it’s a matter of existential choice. The collective wisdom of the ages has taught me that it is not what life throws at us that ultimately determine what happens to us; rather, it is how we respond to what life throws at us.

Of course, from a purely objective standpoint, there is quite a lot to be despondent about. The economy has been in protracted doldrums, with a recovery that has been shaky and fragile over the last three years. The UN world poverty figures tell us we are now the world capital for poverty, having recently overtaken India for the dubious prize. Some 88 million Nigerians – about 70% of our population -- live in destitute poverty. To put it in perspective, India’s 70 million poor constitute only 21% of its total population. Some 13 million of our children are out of school while 22 million Nigerians, most of them young people, are either unemployed our grossly under-employed. Crime and nihilistic violence have become the order of the day.

Kidnapping and ritual murders are the norm, in addition to the insurgency and rampaging murderous herdsmen militias. There is a general feeling that the country is going in the wrong

direction, morally, politically and developmentally. This is not helped by the gross incompetence of the government in power, with its nepotism, privatisation of government and rule by secret cabals.

In spite of all this, I choose to be joyful and optimistic. I pitch my hope in the innate goodness and generosity of the Nigerian people. My current involvement in the drama of electioneering politics has enabled me to visit the nooks and crannies of this country. I have spoken to traders, farmers, market women, youths, students, elders, disabled and all. I have discovered that Nigerians are a great people imbued with an indomitable spirit. They have an extraordinary spirit of courage and endurance. While the organic solidarities of clan and kinship are diminishing, the bonds of family remain strong.

Nigerians of all faiths are a very prayerful people.

Faith matters a lot to us. It is that faith, born of hope, which has kept our people going.

My greatest source of optimism is our young people. I have lectured on university campuses from Lagos and Ibadan to Port Harcourt and Abuja. I have spoken to okada riders, many of them under-employed graduates. Our elders have called the youths all sorts of names: lazy, 419, cultists and what have you. Our youths have their own challenges, but you can never take away from them their innate creativity and can-do spirit. When you go to the GSM villages in Lagos and Abuja, you see our youths – most of them self-taught -- doing things in ICT that will amaze you. And they have never received any help from government or the banks. You also see a lot of that can-do spirit in the creative industries – in Nollywood and in music. Our youths have learned how to transform adversity into opportunity.

On Wednesday 13 February, the political parties, led by the two gladiators, signed a second Peace Accord in the full glare of national television. The solemn event was also witnessed by none other than the Secretary-General of the Commonwealth the Rt. Hon. Patricia Scotland QC and a gaggle of international observers. They seemed unfazed by Governor Nassir El-Rufai’s threat that they might all go back “in body bags”.

Both Atiku Abubakar and President Muhammadu Buhari made the right noises committing themselves to respecting the rules of civility and peace. I congratulate everyone who was present on that occasion, including the 71 political parties that signed the Peace Accord. I also congratulate the National Peace Committee led by former President Abdulsalam Abubakar, his deputy Admiral Ubitu Ukiwe, Bishop of Sokoto Diocese Most Rev. Matthew Hassan Kukah who all made it possible. Sitting in that ornate building of the International Conference Centre in Abuja and looking at all those faces gave me hope that we as a country can still make it.

One message that came through is that the Africa and the world look up to Nigeria. If Nigeria makes it, there will be hope for Africa. However, in the unfortunate event that we bungle it, our glorious continent is doomed.

Tomorrow Saturday 16 February will decide whether our country will indeed live up to its promise and whether the government of the people by the people for the people shall prevail on these blessed shores of our venerable ancestors. There are those who see it largely as a contest between the ruling APC and the principal challenger Atiku Abubakar and the PDP. What I do know for sure is that the future is pregnant with possibilities.

What is at stake is clear. What the electorate want is a leadership that has the capacity and political will to respond to their most pressing development challenges. They want to live in peace and they want to see their future and that of their children go forward. They demand a leadership that can effectively tackle the evils of insurgency and random nihilistic killings. They demand a government that invests in human capital and expands the possibility frontiers of welfare, jobs and economic opportunities.

The Nigerian people wish to live in a stronger and more secure union. The word “restructuring” scare a lot of people. Some politicians have used it as a stick with which to bludgeon the North and their perceived historic privileges, while for others, it is the pursuit of Biafra by other means. I do not believe in that kind of politics.

I am persuaded that a good statesman is one

‘

What the electorate want is a leadership that has the capacity and political will to respond to their most pressing development challenges.

whose primary focus is on the Common Good. I believe that voters will be asking who among the candidates is best placed to pursue the task of nation building in a way that makes ours a fairer and more prosperous union. I believe that the majority of Nigerians wish to remain together as one united, eternal community. But they need power to be devolved to the regions and they want greater say in how they and their children are governed. Whoever wins the elections will have to be a statesman or woman of courage who is ready to take the bull by the horns and effect the necessary reforms that will save or federation from irredentism and centrifugal collapse. It is the only hope we have to serve our federation from ultimate dissolution.

Equally important is the question of the physical, mental and intellectual preparedness of our future leader. It was former American Secretary of State Henry Alfred Kissinger who once famously noted that “political office taxes intellectual capital”. It is only in Nigeria that anybody can wake up any day and claim they want to be president of the country. In a democracy, anyone in theory can aspire to become the occupant of the high magistracy of the state. But we have to be realistic. Statesmanship requires skills of the highest order. An effective leader at the minimum must be familiar with the arcane arts of statecraft. They have to be once historian, economist, scientist, manager, and practical fixer -- rainmakers with deep intuition that accurately reads people and context. They must also have mastered Machiavelli, Hobbes, Kautilya and the great military commanders; ready to go to war to defeat evil while cherishing peace and pursuing it. Nigeria will fulfil her destiny as a land of hope and glory.

Dr. Mailafia is a former Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, a development economist and public finance expert with a DPhil from Oxford obmailafia@gmail.com; 08036590990 (text messages only)

Tafawa Balewa, John F. Kennedy and the road not taken HumanAngle

Femi olugbile

I

dly trawling through the internet on a recent afternoon, you happenupon a black and white video recording on YouTube of the state visit of Nigeria’s first (and only!)

Prime Minister to the United States of America. You settle down comfortably on the couch to watch.

On July 25, 1961, on the invitation of John F Kennedy, Alhaji Sir Tafawa Balewa is flying out of Lagos on a state visit to America.

He is visiting a man who has fired the imagination of America and the whole world by his energy and his youthful certainty that there could be a better happier world where everybody, black, white, yellow, would have a stake. He has been in office only six months, and people everywhere are feeling the eddies of optimism he is generating. America is on the road to becoming a better place for all its citizens. The world is going to be a better place for all humanity.

There are facts that do not fit the goodygoody image that hangs around the young American President. Apartheid is rife in South Africa, and there seems to be no end in sight.

Portugal is holding its African colonies of Angola and Mozambique in a vice-like neck choke. Much of Africa is still under colonial dominance. Patrice Lumumba – elected Prime Minister of a Democratic Republic of Congo that is trying to free itself from internal strife and slavery from Belgium, has just been murdered, with the suspected instigation and

collusion of America.

If there are worries and suspicions, this landmark state visit of the leader of the Giant of Africa is not the place to entertain them.

Rather, it is a time to celebrate a brave new world, full of all manner of exciting possibilities.

Arriving Washington, the Nigerians are seen being received by Lyndon Johnson.

There is an airport ceremony. The Vice President makes a welcome speech, stating his high hopes for the visit. He speaks of ‘exciting developments taking place in your country and Africa today…’.

There is a motorcade to convey the Prime Minister to Blair House, his accommodation, just across the street from the White house.

Crowds of eager Americans line the streets, waving Nigerian and American flags.

Later, Balewa is received on the doorstep of the White House by JFK. The American is looking plump, rosy cheeked and in the full flush of good health. He towers over his Nigerian visitor as they shake hands. His smile is warm.They pose for photos. They like each other straight off.

At the end of their discussions, they express a joint opposition to ‘racial discrimination’ – a pointed dig at apartheid South Africa. They declare a readiness to work together.

The Prime Minister, bounding with energy, is off to the Lincoln Memorial. Lincoln – at this time – is celebrated as ‘the great emancipator’. The March on Washington is yet to take place. Martin Luther King Junior is not yet in the face of everyone, though he is already around in Chicago, mobilizing the black community to peaceful protest. He is yet to make his timeless ‘I have a dream...’ speech. And he is yet to be assassinated.

The Nigerians go from the Lincoln Memorial to the Washington Memorial.

They are received at the Department of State by Dean Rusk and taken through an exhibition of photographs and artefacts from Africa.

A special session of the House of Representatives is convened in honour of the Prime

‘

You in the US have a lot to teach about living in peace and harmony… mutual respect and understanding…

We shall go back to Nigeria with happy memories…’

Minister. Good optimistic words fly about in the expansive space of the American Congress. ‘…Free Society…Democratic system of Governance…love of Freedom…’

Congress rises in standing ovation at the conclusion of Tafawa Balewa’s speech.

There is a visit to the Islamic Centre in Washington, revealing intricately realized ornate architecture with a touch of the Ottoman.

There is a reception from the Chief of Mission of African nations.

Then an address to the National Press Club, followed by a question and answer session.

Balewa has requested specially to visit Gettysburg, Pennsylvania.

It is a curious choice of destination for sight-seeing, Gettysburg - the place where the most decisive battle of the American Civil War was fought in 1863, and where the ‘rebels’ were routed.

Why would Balewa choose to visit Gettysburg? Is he having premonition of the Civil War in Nigeria, six years down the line? Does he want to know what the scars on the faces and psyche of Abakali and Owerri would look like after two centuries?

In the evening, the Nigerian leader throws a dinner party for his host. You watch as Kennedy and Hubert Humphrey banter with their visitor.

A trip to North West University in Chicago.

He is received by Professor Hershkovitz, the head of African Studies, who is reputed to have 20,000 volumes on Africa in his library.

‘African Studies’ is yet to come of age, and the brilliant minds from Ibadan and Ife Universities are yet to take wings and spread across the world to be the African faces of their own story.

He receives the keys to the cities of Chicago and New York.

At the United Nations premises, he is welcomed by the Secretary General, Dag Hammarskjold. They hold talks in an empty auditorium and are clearly impressed by each other.

He meets Adlai Stevenson, the US Ambas-

sador to the UN. They talk.

His parting words are replete with familiar themes ‘…You in the US have a lot to teach about living in peace and harmony…mutual respect and understanding…We shall go back to Nigeria with happy memories…’

Dag Hammarskjold, the smiling, consummate diplomat whom Kennedy once described as ‘the greatest stateman of the age’ would die in a plane crash while on a peace mission in the Congo a few months after shaking hands with Tafawa Balewa.

Two years later after his meeting with Balewa, JFK – the rosy-cheeked young President, would be dead, shot down by an assassin in Dallas.

And a scant five years down the line, Tafawa Balewa himself would be dead, shot down by soldiers on a ‘rescue’ mission that is eitherincompetent or mischievous, or both. As evidence of the bogus nature of the plot, not only would the choice of victims be lopsided, but there would be no evidence of any effort to free from prison in Calabar the social democrat the coupists allegedly want to install as captain of the Nigerian ship.

It is important for Nigerians to reflect back on the hope for a better future frozen in the air almost sixty years past, as their Prime Minister – no saint by any means, and no stranger himself to political skullduggery, goes visiting the handsome young President of America, and to try to reconnect with that hope, as they go to the polls tomorrow to choose their next leader.

Peace and harmony for all the world look to be on the road ahead in July 1961 in the happy story of the two leaders you are watching on YouTube.

But that road to peace and brotherly love would prove to be a road not taken.

History would take another road.

Femi Olugbile is a Writer and Psychiatrist.

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