BUSINESS DAY Monday 17 September 2018
BusinessDay Research and Inteligence Unit
Buhari vs others: what to learn from the 2015 voting pattern
Recent political realignment in the country in the two main political parties, All Progessive Congress (APC) and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) show a desperation to galvanize supports across boards and seize power come 2019. But to enable us have a good grasp of how 2019 election may play out, an analysis of the 2015 general election, which was adjudged to be one of the freest, fairest and most credible election in the history of Nigeria, will suffice.
T
he All Progressive Congress (APC), a coalition of T the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), All Nigeria Peoples
Party (ANPP) and splitter factions from other political parties snatched power from the the ruling party, the PDP, an unprecedented victory marking the first time in the country an incumbent president lost an election to an opposition party. A look at the numbers will provide insightful answers as to what led to this twist in the nation’s politico-historical narratives.
As at 2015, the total population of Nigeria was put at about 180 million people. While the number of registered voters was 68.8 million (INEC reported 67.4 million during the declaration of the 2015 election result), only about 47 per cent of the registered voters were accredited to vote. More so, of these registered voters, less than half (43.7 per cent) cast their vote; a figure that vividly portray the level of voter apathy – a plague that have imperceptibly eaten deep into the fabrics of the country’s political system – that pervades the election.
2015 IN NUMBERS 2015 IN NUMBERS
Population
Registered Voters INEC
180 million
53%
68.8 million
Registered but didn’t vote
43.7%
voted
3.3%
Accredited but didn’t vote
(measure of voters apathy)
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MASSIVE DEFECTIONS PROPELLED BUHARI TO VICTORY IN 2015
Geopolitical chart of registered voters relative to votes secured by APC and PDP Presidential election 2015 Vote secured by APC
North East
Vote secured by PDP
South-East
u
9.1 million
7.7 million
Enu g
Anambra Borno
Ebo ny
wa
2.5 million
ImImoo
ma
2,8 million
Ada
796,588
198,248
Abi a
Bauchi
Gombe
i
Jigawa
Registered votes
Plateau
South South
North central
Rive r
Ed o
10.1million Kwara
Niger
a Delt Rivers
a araw
17.6million
13.7 million
Kastina
Jigawa
Kano
i 2.4 million
7.1 million
Zamfara
bb do
1.7 million
North West
Ekiti
On
un Os
2.4 million
Benue
418,590
Sokoto
Ogun
Nass
Kogi
South West
Oyo
10.6million
Plateau
Ke
a
ls ye Ba
Akw Ibo a m
Cros s
4.7 million
1.8 million
Lagos
Kaduna
Statistics from INEC and compiled by Businessday Research and Intelligence Unit (BRIU) research team shows that Lagos state with a population base of over 12.2 million people and undoubtedly the country’s economic nerve centre topped the chart of states with the highest rate of voter apathy in the 2015 presidential election as accentuated by their voting statistics.
1.3 million
e investigation revealed that only 24 per cent of over 5 million registered voters in Lagos state came out to vote on the day of the 2015 presidential election. is means that 76 per cent of the registered voters didn’t vote in Lagos state in 2015 general election.
LAGOS STATE Voting paern
Registered Voters 2015
12.2 million population
5 MILLION 24%
Breakdown
only 24% of the 5 million registered voters came out to vote
76% 76% of registered voters did not vote
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MASSIVE DEFECTIONS PROPELLED BUHARI TO VICTORY IN 2015
below 40% across
Above 50% across states having between 40% and 50%
Sokoto Kano
43%
Bauchi
Oyo
Osun Ekiti
36%
24%
a Delt
28%
wa
Benue
a
s yel Ba
Ebonyi
Cross River 38%
Imo
38%
55%
43%
34%
Enugu 40%
Ed o
28%
Lagos
40%
Taraba Taraba
41%
31%
Ondo
Ad
49%
Nassarawa
Kogi
41%
45%
Ogun
FCT
a aw
Plateau
34%
34% 38%
41%
am
47%
40%
Kwara
32%
Akwa Ibom
Rivers
60%
61%
60%
Abia
27%
Anambra
Source: INEC, BRIU
26%
50%
Kaduna Niger
Borno
43%
Gombe
51%
45%
Yobe
ma
51%
Zamfara
Kebbi
Jigawa 56%
Kastina
A da
51%
35%
States controlled by party after 2015 general election APC
Kastina
Yobe
Bauchi
Niger
Plateau
Kwara
FCT Kogi
a
ls ye Ba
Rivers
Akw Ibo a m
Imo
Anambra
Rive r
Ebo
Enu
nyi
gu
do a Delt
Source: INEC, BRIU
Taraba
Benue
Ed o
Lagos
On
Ogun
Ekiti
a araw
Nass
Cros s
un
Oyo
Abia
Ada ma
wa
Kaduna
Borno
be
Zamfara
Kebbi
Jigawa Kano
Go m
Sokoto
APGA
PDP
Os
Other states which recorded low turnout of voters relative to the number of people who registered to vote included Borno, Abia, Edo, Ogun, Kogi, Ebonyi, Benue, FCT and Oyo states (see chart below). is does not mean that other states of the federation did not do well in terms of voters turnout. Interestingly, of the 36 states and the federal capital territory, only 9 states – Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Jigawa, Delta, Sokoto, Katsina, Zamfara and Bauchi recorded more than 50 per cent of total voters who turned out to vote. Four of these 9 states namely Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa and Delta states were Niger Delta states, the home base of ex-President Goodluck Jonathan and equally important was that the states were controlled by PDP governors hence they were strongholds of the party. More imperative to this discussion is that Rivers, Akwa Ibom and Bayelsa states were the most politically active in terms of the number of voters pooled relative to their registered voters base. e remaining 5 states were drawn from the North West geographical region (exclusive of Bauchi from the North East), the region where Muhammadu Buhari hails from. Essentially, the large turnout of voters in these states could not be unconnected to the regional political interplay that has permeated Nigerian political scene since the time of the Awolowos, Azikiwes and the Bellos. In the South-South for example, there was massive support for the re-election of Goodluck Jonathan who is from the region. e influence of Bola Ahmed Tinubu, a former governor of Lagos and a pioneering founder of the APC is believed to have helped in no small measure in rallying the South West region for Buhari. It has been suggested that the North West and North East believed that it was time for someone from their fold to take back power following the circumstances that played out aer the death of former President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, which eventually saw his Vice President, Goodluck Jonathan become president. is death completely altered the zoning equation envisaged by the PDP and saw power move to the minority South-South; an event that the North never wanted to happen considering their body languages and political postures at that time.
Proportion of total voters turnout in selected states
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MASSIVE DEFECTIONS PROPELLED BUHARI TO VICTORY IN 2015
THE PLAYERS A total of 14 political parties participated in the 2015 presidential election with the All Progressive Congress (APC) and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) being the main contenders.e APC and the PDP accounted for 96.1 per cent out of the 29.4 million total votes casted while the remaining 12 political parties balanced up the percentage difference; An agelong trend that has made political observers aver that Nigeria is gradually gravitating towards a two party state. at aside, the APC won the 2015 presidential election with 15.4 million votes, ahead of the PDP which secured with 12.9 million votes.
e APC presidential candidate, Mohammadu Buhari won in 21 states, clinching 52.4 per cent of the total vote cast while PDP’s candidate and the then incumbent president, Goodluck Jonathan one in 15 states and the FCT securing to 43.8 per cent of total votes casted. One interesting fact however, stood out. In most of the 15 states, the PDP clinched more than half of the total votes cast. Specifically, over 94 per cent of the votes were secured by PDP in the South East states of Enugu, Anambra and Abia including all the South South states (excluding Edo) of Akwa Ibom, Cross River, Delta, Rivers and Bayelsa states. e highest votes for the APC came from three North West states of Kano (1,903,999 votes) Katsina (1,345,441 votes) and Kaduna (1,127,760 votes).
How Nigerians voted in 2015 14 Political parties contested 2015 elections
APC & PDP secured 96.1% of the 29.4 million votes cast in 2015
15
21
15.4 million votes
CT +F
st
es at
at es
st
Muhammadu Buhari
e tat
no s 12 Candidates Source: INEC, BRIU
1.1 million votes
Goodluck Jonathan
12.9 million votes
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MASSIVE DEFECTIONS PROPELLED BUHARI TO VICTORY IN 2015
States where APC and PDP showed strong support States heavily contested by APC and PDP 2015 Presidential Election PDP WON 5 APC WON 2
ere were seven states with less than 100,000 votes differential between APC and PDP in the 2015 general election. e PDP won in ve of the seven states under
APC 146,399 PDP 157,195
this category – FCT plus Ekiti, Nassarawa, Edo, and Taraba states. On the other hand, APC won in just two: Ondo and Benue states. e successes recorded by PDP were mainly where the
APC 120,331 PDP 176,466
APC
236,838 PDP 273,460
a araw
Nass
Ekiti
Taraba
do Ed o
On
Lagos
state, PDP won with a wide margin of 78.4 thousand
Benue
Os
un
Oyo
states save Edo states. Despite being in opposition in Edo votes, the highest margin among the seven states.
FCT
PDP 251,368 APC 299,889
party controlled the machinery of government in those
APC 261,326 PDP 251,368
PDP 286,869 APC 208,469
PDP 176,466
APC120,331
Source: INEC, BRIU
Voting paerns across geopolitical zones e 2015 general election accentuated the obvious fact that the political strength of the APC lies largely in the North West and North East geopolitical zones while the PDP has its stronghold in the South-South and SouthEast zones. For instance, the total votes garnered by the APC in both North West and North East in the 2015 election amounted to 9.96 million, 65 per cent of the overall total it used in winning the election. However, it could only secure 1 per cent and 3 per cent of its total votes polled nationwide from the South East and South-South respectively. Conversely, the PDP secured 37 per cent and 19 per cent (a combined 56 per cent) of its 12,853,162 votes pooled nationwide from the South-South and South East respectively. It secured only 6 and 10 per cents (combined 16 per cent) from the North West and North East respectively. e distribution of votes secured by the two political parties as a percentage of total votes nationwide was somehow similar in both the North Central and South West. APC recorded 16 per cent of its total votes in each of the regions while PDP recorded 14 per cent in the South West and 13 per cent in the North Central. Essentially, this trend makes the situation in the North Central and South West pivotal to the outcome of the 2019 election. Former President Olusegun Obasanjo has withdrawn his support for Buhari describing his administration as an abysmal failure. While Tinubu’s inuence may have delivered the South West to Buhari in 2015, Obasanjo equally did a lot of underground work for the emergence of Buhari and his open withdrawal of support for the APC-led government could impact the political dynamics in the region.
However, this downside risk could be mitigated with the assumption of an APCled government by governor-elect Kayode Fayemi in Ekiti state. If it wins the upcoming Osun state governorship election the APC will control the machinery of government in all the states of the region and place it in a better position to deliver the region once again for the APC. On the other hand, political and religious tension in the North Central could serve a blow to the APC in the region come 2019. e North Central states of Benue, Taraba and Plateau have been hardest hit by the Fulani-herders conflict with scores of death record on a frequent basis. In January 2018 for example, over 70 people, most of them children and women were slaughtered allegedly by Fulani herdsmen in Benue state. e perceived poor response by the central government in handling the security issues has raised concerns in some quarters that it failed the people. It is worthy to know that part of the reason why Nigerians lost faith in the ability of the Jonathan’s administration was his failure to effectively combat the Boko Haram security challenges of the North East. Consequently, it would not be wrong to say that the inability of the Buhari’s administration to solve the incessant clashes of herdsmen with farmers not just in the core middle belt but in selected states of other geopolitical regions will dampen his prospects of securing large votes in the region 2019.
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MASSIVE DEFECTIONS PROPELLED BUHARI TO VICTORY IN 2015
Voting paerns across geopolitical zones
Breakdown 16%
APC 7,115,199 PDP 1,339,709
North West
APC 2,411,013
3%
46% 46%
ast
E rth o N
1%
16%
APC 2,848,678 PDP 796,588
North central
PDP 1,715,818
18%
65% of the total votes secured by APC nationwide came from both the North West and North East in 2015.
South West
Imo
South East APC 198,248 PDP 2,464,906
APC 2,433,193 PDP 1,821,416
Conversely
South South
Source: INEC, BRIU
APC 418,590
19%
37%
PDP 4,714,725
6%
States with highest recorded votes
10%
Our selection of states with highest recorded votes was based on those states which recorded over 1 million votes in the 2015 presidential election.
13% 14%
Of the 36 states of the federation, 9 states recorded over a million votes. These states are Kano, Kaduna, Rivers, Katsina, Lagos, Delta, Jigawa, Bauchi and Akwa Ibom states.
56% of the total votes secured by PDP nationwide came from both the South South and South East in 2015.
Kano state recorded 2,119,778 votes in the 2015 presidential election, closely followed by Kaduna state with 1,611,845 votes. The North West states of Kano, Kaduna, Katsina and Jigawa recorded a combined 6,204,893 votes, representing 21.4 per cent of the 29 million total votes cast in the presidential election of 2015.
States with lowest recorded votes
In contrast, the three South-South states that featured in this category – Rivers, Delta and Akwa Ibom – secured a combined 3,828,343 votes in the election, representing 13 per cent of the 29 million total votes cast nationwide.
States with lowest votes Ekiti state with only 296,797 votes recorded the lowest amount of votes in the 2015 election. It was followed by the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) with 303,594 votes.
Recorded votes 2015 Presidential election by Regions As 9 states recorded over a million votes
Other states in this category include Ebonyi (343,171), Bayelsa (366,403), Abia (381,697) and Kogi state (414,838).
1,028,892
1,444,378
votes
votes
2,119,778 votes
ina
North West
t as
K
States with lowest votes in the 2015 Presiential election Jigawa
votes
Bauchi
Kano
Kaduna
1,017,683
rth No
ast
E
votes
Eki
Imo
Lagos
votes
South East
Rivers Akwa Ibom
South South
1,260,315 votes
1,556,313 votes
366403
Ebonyi
South West
Delta
381697
Bayelsa
FCT
1,424,787
414838
Abia
1,611,845
North central
Kogi
1,011,715 votes
343171
303594 296797
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MASSIVE DEFECTIONS PROPELLED BUHARI TO VICTORY IN 2015
What does the current voters’ statistics says? As at 26th August 2018, about 16.8 million Nigerians registered newly with about 1.1 million people placing requests for new voters’ card due to wear and tear, lost etc. Of this number, over 3.9 million voters were captured under the 2017 post Automated Fingerprint Identification System (AFIS) while the remainder of 9.7 million is the cumulative Continuous Voters Registration (CVR) for 2018.
Lagos and Rivers states stand out with the highest number of newly registered voters. Over 725,437 and 705,921 voters are registered in Lagos and Rivers states respe tively. Abia and Ogun states came closer with 547,606 and 518,730 voters respectively. is was followed by Enugu and Cross River states, with 516,155 and 507,976 respectively.
As at 2016, shortly aer the 2015 general election, data from INEC showed that there were over 69 million voters captured in the electronic voters registered (EVR). Lagos state had over 5.8 million voters in the EVR, followed by Kano at 4.99 million voters. Other states topping the EVR chart as at 2016 were Kaduna (3.4 million), Katsina (2.8 million), Rivers (2.5million), Oyo (2.4 million), Delta (2.3 million) amongst others. At the bottom of the chart of the 2016 EVR were Bayelsa (663,639), Ekiti (732,059), FCT (1 million), Yobe (1.1 million), Ebonyi (1.11million) etc. However, recent statistics from the electoral body as at 29th August, 2018 shows that the EVR has risen from 69 million to well over 83 million voters. Bayelsa state has shown the highest growth of voters increasing by 50 per cent to 994,054 voters as at August. Cross River state and Abia state followed closely with growth rates of 43 per cent and 39 per cent. Geographically, the North West which is largely held to be the homebase of President Muhammadu Buhari is shrinking relative to other zones. According to our analysis, the growth rate of voters in the EVR in the region stands at only 12 per cent. is is the lowest growth rate among the geopolitical zones of the country when compared with growth rate in South East (29 per cent), South-South (26 per cent), North East (22 per cent), North Central (21 per cent) and South West (17 per cent). Specifically in the North West, six of the region’s seven states – Jigawa, Kano, Katsina, Kaduna, Zamfara and Sokoto – recorded less than 15 per cent growth in the number of voters captured in their respective EVR as at August, 2018. 2
Value is derived from the addition of 2016 EVR and total registered voters as at August 2018. Total registered voters here is the summation of post AFIS/BR 2017 CVR, post AFIS/BR first quarter 2018 and second quarter 2018.
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Geopolitical representation of EVR
2016 EVR 17,747,175 EVR as at August 2018 19,873,640
North West
ast
E rth o N
9,088,468 2016 EVR 2016 EVR 10,919,637
North central
11,047,984 EVR as at August 2018
EVR as at August 201813,183,460
South West
Imo
South East 7,763,267 2016 EVR 10,051,497 EVR as at August 2018
2016 EVR 13,856,472 EVR as at August 201816,193,410
South South
2016 EVR10,345,326 EVR as at August 2018 13,004,768
Source: INEC, BRIU
Electronic Voters Register (EVR) 2016 Vs Likely EVR In 2018 Kano Ondo Katsina Sokoto Lagos Zamfara Edo Kaduna Jigawa Kwara Niger Bauchi Kebbi Kogi Oyo Osun Gombe Delta Plateau Benue Akwa Ibom Imo Taraba Borno Yobe Anambra Ekiti Adamawa FCT Nassarawa Rivers Ogun Ebonyi Enugu Abia Cross River Bayelsa
5,410,638 4,993,471
Growth in EVR across states from 2016 to August, 2018
1,805,183 1,659,186 3,137,634 2,842,678 1,879,053 1,671,898 1,702,574 1,502,349 2,182,459 1,925,105
5,827,846
6,553,283
3,878,866 3,417,079
2,108,714 1,841,312 1,378,902 1,190,989 2,338,901 2,015,541 2,425,428 2,081,910 1,756,161 1,478,388 1,662,853 1,397,786 2,897,149 2,416,016 1,693,358 1,407,235 1,383,978 1,147,277 2,806,218 2,324,401 2,451,255 2,023,599 2,456,765 2,020,962 2,093,725 1,717,766 2,270,431 1,855,976 1,652,389 1,348,353 2,256,581 1,838,649 1,373,346 1,105,385 2,441,894 1,964,858 911,577 732,059 1,956,262 1,566,894 1,301,259 1,020,799
Total 2018 2016 EVR
1,593,525
1,249,961
2,538,535
3,244,456
2,332,860
1,814,130 1,450,014 1,117,036 1,945,386 1,429,231 1,943,772 1,396,166 1,683,856 1,175,880 994,054 663,639
-
1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 7,000,000
Source: INEC, BRIU
8% 9% 10% 12% 12% 13% 13% 14% 15% 16% 16% 17% 19% 19% 20% 20% 21% 21% 21% 22% 22% 22% 23% 23% 24% 24% 25% 25% 27% 27% 28% 29% 30%
Kano Ondo Katsina Sokoto Lagos Zamfara Edo Kaduna Jigawa Kwara Niger Bauchi Kebbi Kogi Oyo Osun Gombe Delta Plateau Benue Akwa Ibom Imo Taraba Borno Yobe Anambra Ekiti Adamawa FCT Nassarawa Rivers Ogun Ebonyi Enugu Abia Cross River Bayelsa
36% 39% 43% 50% 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
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MASSIVE DEFECTIONS PROPELLED BUHARI TO VICTORY IN 2015
Geographical distribution of newly registered voters In terms of geographical distribution, the South-South seems to be taking more interest in the upcoming election. Over 2.65 million voters have been registered so far in the region, the highest in the country. South West and South East followed closely with 2.33 mi lion and 2.28 million registered voters. Gender-wise, the female folks appear to be quite enthusiastic to vote come 2019. INEC data reveals that an additional 7.4 million females have registered to vote compared to 6.2 million males who registered in the same period. As at the end of the rst quarter of 2018, INEC released a report which showed that out of over 8.3 million PVCs that were uncollected in 2016, only about 121,097 PVCs had actually been collected. This leaves over 7.9 million PVCs uncollected as at that date. A critical examination of that reports shows that eight states contributed over half of the total uncollected PVCs with ve of these states being in the South West and interestingly APC strongholds– Lagos, Ogun, Osun, Ondo and Oyo states – while the remaining three are Edo, Rivers and Imo states. ere is however a growing awareness among Nigerians concerning the power they wield with the Permanent Voters Card (PVC) they possess. e clamour by concerned stakeholders for Nigerians who have a tained the voting age to register and/or collect their PVC has been gathering momentum in the build up to the election. is is borne partly out of the criticism of the Buhari’s administration regarding security especially as it concerns the farmerherders clashes. Recent data by INEC indicates that the interest of Nigerians to participate in the forthcoming election has heightened. e number of collected PVCs increased from just 121,097 as at end of first quarter to 813,110 by mid-August, 2018. Consequently, the number of uncollected PVCs dropped marginally to 7.46 million PVCs compared to 7.9 million as at end of first quarter. Lagos state retained the number one spot as the state with the highest uncollected PVCs totally 1.38 million. Some states have shown improvement in the number of PVC collected compared with what obtained in Q1. For example, Zamfara state had just 40 PVCs collected as at end of Q1. But by August, it has soared to 35,917 collected PVCs. e same situation played out in Rivers state with PVCs collected rising from 12,835 in Q1 to 158,178 by August, the highest number of PVCs collected so far in the whole country. Geographically, the number of uncollected PVCs in the South West stood at 3.4 million, the highest in the country. at amount is thrice that of the total PVCs uncollected in the entire South-South region and more than 1.5 times higher than the total uncollected PVCs in the whole of the Northern region including the FCT. e reason for this narrative is quite simple: all the states in the South West are among the states that have the highest uncollected PVCs with Lagos state accounting for 17 per cent of the national total.
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PVC Collections by States Zamfara Yobe Taraba Sokoto Rivers Plateau Oyo Osun Ondo Ogun Niger Nassarawa Lagos Kwara Kogi Kebbi Katsina Kano Kaduna Jigawa Imo Gombe FCT Enugu Ekiti Edo Ebonyi Delta Cross River Borno Benue Bayelsa Bauchi Anambra Akwa Ibom Adamawa Abia
35,917 3,214 44,886 8,887 158,178 2,190 41,616 8,076 16,239 26,415 1,336 7,173 41,250 9,286 44,026 9,786 12,641 7,181 4,130 11,388 16,886 5,232
PVC collection in Q1
15,827 15,774
PVC Collection (by August)
4,234
17,438 14,898 17,182 19,508 2,640 23,643 8,658 626 108,777 2,495 4,598 40,879
PVC Collections by Region 2018 -
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
Source: INEC, BRIU
Uncollected
652,142 89,930
collected
North West
t
as hE
rt No 918,713 87,654
256,069 15,827
North central
Imo
3.4 million South West 137,830
17% Lagos state accounts for 17 per cent of the national total of uncollected PVC
South South 1.1 million 223,459
323,208 61,196
South East 798,047 197,214
180,000
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MASSIVE DEFECTIONS PROPELLED BUHARI TO VICTORY IN 2015
Challenges in getting PVC e process for the collection of the PVC has been sauced with widespread complaint of irregularities and deep-rooted inefficiency cross designated INEC offices nationwide. Most voters with temporary voters’ card have been unable to swap it with their PVCs partly because their details could not be found on INEC’s voters’ database. Again, most Nigerians that have moved to a location different from the original place they registered for their voter cards are ignorant of the process to relocate their details to their present place of residence. Besides, there are allegations that INEC officials collect money in other to assist prospective voters to process their registration or search for their PVCs.
Tourtous journey getting PVC
INEC extends registration deadline Logistical problem such as faulty equipments is also top on the list of challenges facing the registration of potential voters and distribution of PVCs in some INEC offices nationwide. In this tumultuous situation, the report came that the deadline for voters registration was the 17th of August. is and many more were factors that were likely going to disenfranchise voters come 2019. Recognizing this trend and yielding to the complaints of Nigerians who cried to the Commission for the extension of process, INEC shied the deadline for registration of voters and distribution of PVCs till 31st August, 2018. However, the electoral body said the collection of PVCs will continue until close to the general elections. Stakeholders have called on INEC as a matter of urgency to put machinery in place to ease the process of registration, transfer and collection of PVCs so a reduce considerably the time wasted in unnecessary queues at PVC registration and collection centres. More hands and equipment should be employed and deployed to make the process run smoothly.
Cross-carpeting: a recurring decimal in Nigeria’s political Decamping has always been part of Nigerian politics especially when a general election period is approaching. It is a tool deployed by egocentric politicians to perpetrate their self-interest. Such actions by Nigerian politicians leave one in awe as to their integrity and foresight to build a formidable Nigeria. It casts doubt as to the role our political parties play in serving as a platform to electing credible, transparent leaders who wholeheartedly subscribe to the visions and missions of their party. Far more important is that decamping or cross-carpeting dictates, to a reasonable extent, the odds to winning the election among the major political parties. Recently, the Nigerian political space was agog with news of massive defections from the ruling APC to the opposition PDP. ere was hardly any newspaper that did not talk about the cross-carpeting spree that happened within the two big political parties – APC and PDP – across geopolitical zones, states and local councils. Unfortunately, that trend will continue till next year 2019 when the election will be held. It’s really no big deal because Nigerians has become accustomed to this sad, incessant occurrence as eletion day approaches. Similar situation played out prior to the 2015 election. During that period, the state composition of governors and the party they belonged to included:
Source: INEC, BRIU
With the coalition between the APC, CPC, ANPP and several splitter parties in addition to the decamping of several top PDP governors such as Rotimi Amaechi (Rivers state), Murtala Nyako (Adamawa state), Musa Kwankwaso (Kano state), Aliyu Wammako (Sokoto state) and Abdulfatah Ahmed (Kwara state) to the APC due in part to internal rancour within the then ruling PDP, there was a fundamental shi in the political equation equilibra of the polity in preparedness for 2015 general election. e decamping opened the door for even more defections from the ruling PDP as senators, house of reps members and other political bigwigs dumped the party and pledged their allegiance for the APC, the party they believed will bring the needed change Nigeria craved for. e incidence partly led to APC winning four of the have states whose governors defected from the PDP. Rivers state was the only exception. Massive cross-carpeting or decamping (whatever name you may deem it to call it) has always been a sign of an impending doom for any political party that does not take concrete step to curtail it. It is a sign of infracture in a political body where the members therein feel unsecured and accordingly seek ways to break free. On the flipside, cross-carpeting could also be because of the egocentrism among politicians who could not get what they want from the existing internal order of the political parties they once belonged to.
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5 top decampees in 2015 from PDP to APC that changed everything Musa Kwankwaso Sokoto
Aliyu Wammako
Abdulfatah Ahmed
Ada ma
wa
Kano
Murtala Nyako
Taraba
Kogi
Ekiti
Rotimi Amaechi
i a
s yel Ba
Rivers
r
e decamping opened the door for even more defections from the ruling PDP as senators, house of reps members and other political bigwigs dumped the party and pledged their allegiance for the APC
Rive
Akw Ibo a m
a Delt
Cros s
Lagos
Ebo ny
On do
Ogun
Ed o
Os
un
Kwara
Source: INEC, BRIU
Either way, the irreversible consequence of unchecked cross-carpeting is that it could lead to a woeful defeat of a political party in a general poll. Consequently, it would not be out of place to say that the defection of the PDP governors, among other factors, secured victory for President Muhamudu Buhari in 2015. e Imo state governor, Mr Rochas Owelle Okorocha corroborated this fact at a valedictory dinner in honour of the then governor of Lagos state and now minister of Power, Works and Housing, Mr Babatunde Fashola. Okorocha said, “Make no mistake about it, without the have governors that joined the APC in 2013, we would not be here today.”
He concluded by asserting that “…the moment the PDP lost have Governors was the moment it lost the presidency and its planned 60 years in power.” But what has put Nigeria’s political history on repeat mode? What could have sparked the recent mass defection from the APC to the PDP? Basically so much has been going on in the ruling APC which has factionalized the party. e internal acrimony climaxed with the formation of the reformed APC (rAPC) led by Buba Galadima, a former national secretary of the defunct Congress for Progressive Change (CPC). e rAPC alleged that the APC government led by Buhari has failed in delivering its electioneering campaign promises to Nigerians hence the need to cut off from it.
Wave of political defections in 2018 the big wigs APC
Aminu Tambuwal
PDP
Rabiu Kwankwaso defection brings PDP to the picture
APGA
(Changes to PDP)
Sokoto
Kastina
Zamfara
Kebbi
Jigawa
Yobe
Borno
Kano
Atiku Abubakar
Plateau
a araw
Kogi
Nass
Os
i
u Ebo ny
Enu g
Bayelsa Rivers
Akw Ibo a m
a Delt
Imo
“e political climate especially in the Northern region where Buhari has its stronghold is tensed. To navigate these muddy waters require drawing up concrete political strategizes and building formidable alliances.”
Ed o
Lagos
Samuel Otom
(Changes to PDP)
Godswill Akpabio
Anambra
(Changes to APC)
Abia
brings PDP into the Picture
APC’s internal wrangling brings PDP into the picture
Benue
do
Ogun
Taraba
Rive r
un
Saraki Bukoala
Ekiti
Cros s
Oyo
Ada ma wa
Niger Kwara
On
(Change
s to PDP
)
Kaduna
Go m
Bauchi
be
Abdulfatah Ahmed
Monday 17 September 2018
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15 is trend is playing out again even as the 2019 election beckons. Prior to the announcement by the Benue state governor, Samuel Ortom and his Kwara and Sokoto states counterparts, Abdulfatah Ahmed and Aminu Tambuwal respectively of their defection to the PDP, ex-Vice President Atiku Abubakar had equally dumped the APC to PDP, a party on whose platform he emerged as a two time Vice President of Nigeria. While the APC was yet to emerge from these blows, Dr Bukola Saraki, the Senate President who was a former governor of Kwara state, announced that he has le the APC to the PDP. is latter defection caused a bitter stir in the polity. Many observers of the political drama playing out in the country claimed that Saraki had never been a loyal member of the APC since 2015 when he joined forces with the PDP and few other APC legislators to emerge as the Senate president, a position that was not sanctioned by APC, his party. Be that as it may, Saraki remains a major political actor and his decamping to the PDP sent waves of concern in the APC fold. Recently, as if to add to APC list of things to worry about, Saraki declared his intention to contest for the presidency under the platform of the PDP. His coming into the picture among political titans gunning for the Presidency under the PDP platform might stir trouble during the party primaries to elect twhe presidential flagbearer of the party. Should the ruling APC be wary of the series of decamping from its fold to the opposition PDP? Will the APC win the 2019 election given these numerous decampees from its camp especially in states which is adjudged to be Buhari’s stronghold? How probable is it that the PDP can spurn this ugly trend for their success in the poll come 2019? ese and many more are the questions political observers are striving to answer.
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MASSIVE DEFECTIONS PROPELLED BUHARI TO VICTORY IN 2015
Some say that, prior to 2015, the APC had done their homework to come to power by staging the largest coalition of political parties the country has ever seen, it is equally important to point out that things are changing swily. Indeed, things are not the way they were in 2015. e political climate especially in sections of the Northern region where Buhari has its stronghold is evolving. To navigate these muddy waters require drawing up concrete political strategies and building formidable alliances. Consequently, the continuous decamping of its members from the APC fold would not augur well for its success in the forthcoming election. For the PDP, there is need to ensure a transparent internal democratic process to rein in its primaries given the numerous political aspirants jottling for the presidential ticket under its platform. Not only that, there would equally be need for machinery to be put in place for all aspirants to agree that they will respect the outcome of the primaries and stand by whosoever emerges as the party’s presidential flagbearer. A divided house will be ineffectual in challenging the power of incumbency President Buhari currently wields. Some political analyst have gone as far as stating that all aspirants should sign a bond to that effect. Others have averred that for the PDP to successfully defeat Buhari in its stronghold of the North West and North East, it needs to present a charismatic, powerful candidate from either of the zone. Essentially, party faithfuls are calling for the aspirants to be seived, a call that one of the PDP presidential aspirants, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso has earlier supported. e extent to which that action plan is adopted is a function of the consensus among all the apirants and the party leadership which will be largely dependent on the odds of winning or lossing th election. A close examination of the decampees clearly shows that they were once a cardcarrying member of the PDP with some political watchers calling them “PDP moles within the APC fold”. Nothing changes. It’s all the same game plan to switch allegiance from one party to another for their own selsh interest. For example, Atiku was once a PDP member. When he noticed that its life-long ambition of becoming a president will not be endorsed by the APC and with the PDP dangling the juicy carrot to his eyes, he simply packed up his baggage and pitched tent with the PDP.
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T
Where will the battleground be?
he then incumbent president, Goodluck Jonathan who hails from the Christain, minority South keenly contested the 2015 presidential election. He was faced with Muhammadu Buhari of the APC, a strong Muslim contender who accidentally hails from the North. This dichotomy made the election a dicey one as it resurrected the regional politics that has hunted the nation since the time of Obafemi Awolowo, Nnamdi Azikiwe and Ahmadu Bello. This situation made the election predominantly a competition between the Southern and the
Northern region of the country. Unlike the 2015 election where the battle was between two different personalities in all ramifications – religion, party affiliation, tribe, geographical origin, ideology etc. – the upcoming 2019 election is unique. This is because the main contenders in the race for the highest elective position in the country are from the North. Essentially, the battle ground has shifted from between the North and the South to chiefly the North. We adopted this as one
of the parameters in determining the states where the two parties, APC and the PDP, will stage the fiercest battle in the February 2019 presidential election. Previous election results, voters statistics, political happenings in states nationwide, politicians’ utterances and body languages amongst others, are some of the factors also taken into consideration in determining the battleground states come February 2019 when the presidential election will be held.
Kano
Rivers
Being the frontier state in the North West, Kano state has featured prominently in political discourse in recent times. It is no news that Kano state delivered the highest number of votes (2,119,778 votes) nationwide in the 2015 general election. In addition to that, the state has politically active voters which make it a hot cake among the political parties. Besides, two of the top presidential aspirants in the PDP, Rabiu Kwankwaso and Ibrahim Shekarau, both accidentally were two time governors of the state, hails from there. However, Shekarau has decamped to the APC. Kwankwaso, a two-time governor of Kano state and now a senator representing Kano central senatorial district is a strong aspirant on the platform of the PDP vying for the presidency. He has been able to gather many supporters through his interest group, Kwankwasiyya movement. It is believed that part of the reason the PDP zoned 51 per cent of the stake of the state party to him was due to his strong supporter base in Kano state. However, Kwankwaso has not been in good terms with the present governor of the state, Abdullahi Umar Ganduje. Ganduje was a deputy governor under Kwankwaso when the latter was the governor of Kano state between 1999 to 2003 and 2011 to 2015. Nevertheless, should Kwankwaso win the presidential ticket under the PDP platform, there could be a split in votes in Kano state between APC and PDP. But with the recent defection of Ibrahim Shekarau back to the APC, the stage looks set for more drama to unfold itself in the state.
The oil rich Rivers state has added over 705, 921 voters to its EVR in the last two years, just behind Lagos state with 725,437 voters. This could likely balloon the total voters’ base of the state to slightly above 3.2 million voters. Given the political activeness of the state’s voters, political stakeholders in the nation will be on the watch out for the struggle that will ensue between APC and PDP for the heart of the state at the 2019 polls. However, a win for the APC looks slimmer considering the woeful defeat it suffered in the state in the 2015 presidential election where it only secured 4 per cent of the total votes cast in the state. Governor Wike’s unprecedented achievements which many believed have more than rivalled Amaechi’s feat in the state during the latter’s 8 years term as governor plus the fact that Prince Uche Secondus, the PDP’s national chairman, hails from the state are prospects the PDP hopes to build in order to tighten its grip on and determine political outcomes in the state. On the flip side, given the poor presence of the APC in the state and the amount of votes they could secure from the state, the ruling APC do have its work cut out as they would need to woo voters to support its presidential candidate come 2019. Sokoto The caliphate state fell into the control of APC when Aminu Tambuwal became the governor of the state in 2015. The declaration of intention by Tambuwal to run for the presidency has put Sokoto state in the spotlight as a potential hotspot in 2019. The prospect of him securing the PDP presidential ticket will likely pitch him against Buhari of the APC. The likelihood of Buhari gaining support the way he did in the 2015 presidential election has dwindled, underpinned principally by power brokers in the region who many alleged tried to negotiate for the release of Sambo Dasuki, the National Security Adviser (NSA) under Goodluck Jonathan, but Buhari remained recalcitrant to their plea despite court ruling granting him bail. Sambo Dasuki is the son of the late Sultan of Sokoto, Alhaji Ibrahim Dasuki.
Benue Benue state, the food basket of the nation, has been hardest hit from the herders-farmers clashes in the last four years. APC narrowly won in Benue state in the 2015 presidential election with 373,961 votes relative to 303,737 votes secured by PDP. But recent wave of crisis in the state where hundreds of people have been killed and rendered homeless have cast dark cloud over the APC on whether it can secure victory again in the state. Most political analysts hold the view that many Benue people harbour deep-rooted grudges against the central government led by PMB over what they described as a betrayal of trust they reposed on him in 2015 and are therefore determined to punish the APC with their votes come 2019. The defection of the state governor, Samuel Ortom, to the opposition PDP further serves to compound the woes of APC in the state. Ortom’s defection is predicated on what he described as the central government’s insensitivity to the multifarious killings in the state. More so, the control of the internal architecture of the APC by erstwhile governor of the state, George Akume, has equally been adduced as reasons for Ortom’s defection move. It would therefore not come as a surprise, that such killings would be the slogan the opposition PDP will capitalize on to sway Benue voters to support their cause.
Kogi The North Central state of Kogi has been tipped by political analyst to be one of the battle ground in the upcoming 2019 election. The rift between Dino Melaye, a senator representing Kogi West senatorial district and the Kogi state governor, Yahaya Bello, is one factor many claim will find a way of affecting voters’ sentiment and decision on which party to vote for in 2019 presidential election. The governor has received backlash from Nigerians on the role he is playing in witch hurting two of the senators from the state. He has been allegedly fingered in various calamities that has befell Senator Melaye, with the governor denying any of these allegations In recent times, the call for PDP to micro-zone the party ticket to the North West or North Central has received traction. Consequently, the PDP moved to set up a committee to interface with its over 13 aspirants in a bid to trimming them to a lesser number or get them to adopt a consensus candidate. However, PDP’s excessive focus on the strongholds of the APC (which is predominantly the North West and North East) could be an exercise in fertility come 2019. The reason is because winning the APC in their stronghold does not necessarily give the PDP an assurance of victory in the 2019 election. PDP’s move is simply an attempt to slash the APC’s votes in the North West. To many, this will be essentially fruitless! The PDP might be making the biggest mistake if it thinks fielding a candidate from that region will weaken APC’s chances of winning the 2019 election. This is because a candidate that fits into the Northern political dynamics might not necessarily have huge support base in other parts of the country. To put up a great fight with the APC in the election, the PDP might want to solidify its stronghold in the South-South and South-East by concentrating on ways to wrestle votes from the North Central and the South-West (even though the presence of an all APC-led state governments will make this an herculean task in the South West region).
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MASSIVE DEFECTIONS PROPELLED BUHARI TO VICTORY IN 2015
Views From The International Community The future of Nigeria has become a subject of discussion, especially in the international space, in the build up to the 2019 general election. There are apprehensions in the international community on the prospects of the country’s stability during and after the election. Such doubt has grown deeper, raising concerns of the likelihood of Buhari winning the election next year amidst his waning popularity at home. Two international bodies, the Economic Intelligence Unit (EIU), an arm of the Economist Group, and HSBC, one of the world’s largest financial services firm based in the UK, projected the opposition PDP to win the election in 2019. Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) recently released report detailed the political outlook for Nigeria between 2018 and 2022. The crux of the EIU’s Nigeria political outlook centred on a prognosis that President Buhari will lose the 2019 election amidst internal rancour within the ruling APC where aggrieved members have decamped to the main opposition party, PDP. EIU tilted the power balance to the PDP with a coalition of smaller political parties but was quick to add that the country will continue to grapple with instability thereafter. “Intra-party politics will be chaotic ahead of the poll and we ultimately expect the incumbent to lose the election. The next government is likely going to be led by the People’s Democratic Party, potentially in a coalition with smaller parties, but instability will remain an insoluble challenge.” the report noted. The report further stated that should the PDP win the election, not all those who decamped from the APC will be adequately “compensated” and that even if they were, it would be at the expense of
the “traditional, core PDP members” which could lead to further internal animosity and climax in a situation where aggrieved members turns to reprimand and work against the party – the exact situation that is happening within the APC fold presently. Earlier in July, the multinational financial firm, HSBC, equally warned of the likely negative impact on the economy should Buhari secure a second term victory. “A second term for Mr Buhari however raises the risk of limited economic progress and further fiscal deterioration, prolonging the stagnation of his first term, particularly if there is no move towards completing reforms of the exchange rate system or fiscal adjustments that diversify government revenues away from oil,” the HSBC report noted. This is however not the first time such “doomsday prophecies” has been made. Prior to 2015, it was widely held that the Nigeria federation will break up after the election. Part of the reason that informed this decision was attributed to the utterances from political actors and parties. However, allowing the decision of the Nigerian masses to prevail, Goodluck Jonathan peacefully handed over power to Buhari. That disposition by Goodluck, in itself, doused tensions and restored order nationwide. Therefore, it is not just enough to refute the concerns of the international outfits. The will of the people should be upheld and respected come 2019 as no Nigerian blood is worth spilling in a bid to win power. There have been divergent opinions in the media space and among political debaters on the likely impact of the wave of defections in the ruling party. It has been alleged that while Buhari looks weak enough to match any prospective flag bearer for the opposition PDP, the intense competition and the massive influx of ex-APC members to the
PDP are likely factor that could dampen the PDP’s prospect in the poll come 2019. Analysts believed that while Buhari may have shed some level of supports from the core north, the problem will be whether such lost support could be won over by the opposition PDP who many Nigerians still abhors deep resentment because of the way corruption, nepotism and poor infrastructural drive became the norm during their reign. The problem will not be how to vote out Buhari come 2019; it is rather a question of the quality of the personality the opposition presents to Nigerians to vote for. Already there are accusations and counter accusations among members concerning the lopsided internal politics in the PDP. The defection of two prominent presidential aspirants – Donald Duke and Ibrahim Shekarau – accentuates this fact. Duke stated that he left the PDP because he felt the party has “lost his values and it’s now a shadow of itself.” However, some political watchers averred that Duke’s defection to the Social Democratic Party (SDP) was borne out of the feeling that he might not be able to cope with the kind of big-wigs vying for the presidential ticket on the PDP platform. Whatever is the case, it is important to bore in mind that for PDP to unseat the incumbent president, a divided house will not do much to help their cause. Meanwhile, the call by the national leadership of the APC for the adoption of direct primaries to elect aspirants vying for any elective position have further widen the rift between the party’s top members and puts the ambition of retaining power, come 2019, at unimaginable risk. The absence of a comprehensive register of members is one recurring concerns expressed by members of the APC to be a major stumbling block to the successful adoption of direct primaries.
What the political parties can learn from the recent elections The first governorship election in 2017 was the Anambra gubernatorial election in the South Eastern part of the country. Anambra has always been the stronghold of APGA since the time of Peter Obi, the ex-governor of the state. APGA still holds sway here. In July 2018, election was conducted for Ekiti state and Kayode Fayemi, a former minister for mines and solid minerals under the Buhari’s administration emerged the overall winner of the closely fought election. This makes it the second time Fayemi is emerging as the governor of the state after being beaten to the race by the outgoing governor Ayodele Fayose in the 2014 gubernatorial race. PDP, however, remains strong in Ekiti state. The 2018 Ekiti gubernatorial race which was keenly contested between 35 aspirants saw APC’s Kayode Fayemi win with 197,459 votes, defeating its closest rival, Prof Kolapo Olusola of the PDP who garnered 178,121 votes. Even if the PDP had formed a coalition of all the smaller political parties in the state to ward off any potential threat to it retaining the seat of power in Ekiti states, a win would not have been possible as the APC comfortably secured 51 per cent of the total vote casted in the state. The emergence of APC as the ruling party in Ekiti state has further solidied the APC’s position in the South West though there have been pockets of defections and internal party crisis in some state chapters of the APC. In 2015, Ekiti state was the only party in the South West where the PDP won by a landslide, defeating the APC by 56,135 votes.
However, there is a big issue at hand, one that took a whole new kind of dimension in the recently concluded election in Ekiti. It is the resurgence of vote buying in a manner the country has never overtly witness in his long years of political history. Prior to the election day, it was allege in some quarters that a party was electronically sending supporters about N4,000. e other parties were equally ngered in engaging in vote inducement. ey were alleged to have disbursed about N5,000 to voters who could show proof of voting for their candidate. Essentially, we could say that both parties were guilty as charged and the party who outspent the other eventually won the election. Meanwhile, the APC secured a landslide victory in the recently concluded byeelections for vacant senatorial seats for Kogi, Bauchi and Katsina states. e upcoming Osun state election scheduled for 22nd September, 2018 is sure to be a keenly contested position between the APC and the PDP and the former will deploy all it’s got to cement its leadership position in the region. But beyond this, the issue of security of voters on the day of election and the gradual incursion of “vote-buying syndrome” into the local and national polity does not only portends grave danger for Nigeria’s edgling democracy but are undoubtedly important factors that will determine the
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MASSIVE DEFECTIONS PROPELLED BUHARI TO VICTORY IN 2015
Meet The Presidential Aspirants The 2019 election is becoming more interesting as the day rolls by. What is even more fascinating about the whole process is the number of presidential aspirants in the race. Thee PDP presently has over 10 aspirants for the job of the president, the highest so far among all the political parties. While this is commendable for the country’s fledgling democracy, it particularly becomes worrisome when political parties are consciously stifling competition among the aspirants with the exorbitant fee for the presidential nomination form. For the APC, the presidential form is sold at an unbelievable fee of N45 million, an attempt we believe was done to stream line the aspirants along the line of those who can afford it and not base on competence.
PDP’s presidential form was pegged at N12million. With the 15 aspirants under the platform, that amounts to N180 million naira from the sale of just presidential form. Many groups have since kicked against the exorbitant price charged by political parties in the country for the sale of presidential forms. In protest against the high fee, an APC presidential candidate, Mr Christmas Akpodiete sued APC, PDP and INEC to court for what he described as an attempt by the Nigerian political oligarchs to make nonsense of the just passed Not-too-Young-to- Run law, and a calculated move to deprive the Nigerian people their constitutionally guaranteed right to run for public offices in their own country.
MASSIVE DEFECTIONS PROPELLED BUHARI TO VICTORY IN 2015
Muhammadu Buhari
Adama Garba
Dr SKC Ogbonnia
Donald Duke
Fela Adetokunbo Durotoye
Mr Christmas Akpodiete
Remi Sonaiya
Aminu Tambuwal
Ahmed Maka
Atiku Abubakar
Aahiru Bafarawa
Bukola Saraki
Jonah Jang
David Mark
Taminu Turaki
Kingsley Moghalu
Rabiu Kwankwaso
Sule Lamido
Dai Baba Ahmed Note:
Arrangment of aspirants pictures do not indicate BRIU preference