WB downgrades ’24, ’25 GDP outlook for PHL
T
THE WORLD »A11
USING THREATS, PRESSURE AND FINANCIAL LURES, CHINA SEEN AIMING TO INFLUENCE TAIWAN POLLS
ROTARY CLUB OF MANILA JOURNALISM AWARDS
2006 National Newspaper of the Year 2011 National Newspaper of the Year 2013 Business Newspaper of the Year 2017 Business Newspaper of the Year 2019 Business Newspaper of the Year 2021 Pro Patria Award PHILIPPINE STATISTICS AUTHORITY 2018 Data Champion
HE Philippines is not expected to meet its growth targets any time soon as the World Bank downgraded its GDP outlook for the country for 2024 and 2025. In its January 2024 Global Economic Prospects (GEP) report, the Washington-based lender said the Philippine economy is expected to post a growth of 5.6 percent in 2023 and 5.8 percent in 2024 and 2025. The growth outlook for 2023 was downgraded by 0.4 percentage points, as earlier indicated by the World Bank in a previous report. GDP growth for 2024 and 2025 forecasts were downgraded by 0.1
percentage points, according to the latest GEP. “The projection downgrades mean that EAP [East Asia and the Pacific] output is now expected to fall even further below its prepandemic trend over the forecast horizon,” the World Bank report stated. “This reflects various headwinds facing private investment, including the lagged effects of monetary policy tightening, policy uncertainty—associated in some countries with government transitions—and rising indebtedness. Elevated public debt and reduced fiscal space are envisaged to constrain public investment growth,” the report also read.
Meanwhile, HSBC economist for Asean Aris Dacanay said the country’s GDP growth could average 5.3 percent this year and 5.8 percent next year. This will make the Philippines among the fastestgrowing economies in the Asean, second only to Vietnam. Dacanay said that while this growth estimate is below the government’s 6.5 to 7.5 percent target for this year and next year, this was still respectable and can be considered a feat, considering all the difficulties experienced by the country. He said these difficulties include high inflation, tight monetary policy, low export earnings, and lacking Foreign Direct Investments
(FDI), among others. “We had the highest, the biggest inflation problem in Asean. We had the tightest monetary policy in Asean. And yet, we are at a soft landing. Because again, mainly because we had this very resilient Filipino people, you know, joining the labor force to find all the, to make ends meet basically. And that is boosting the economy,” Dacanay said. Meanwhile, the GEP stated that growth in EAP is forecast to slow to 4.5 percent in 2024 and to 4.4 percent in 2025 due to the weakness of the Chinese economy. Exclud-
BusinessMirror
S “WB,” A
EJAP JOURNALISM AWARDS
BUSINESS NEWS SOURCE OF THE YEAR
(2017, 2018, 2019, 2020)
DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
2018 BANTOG MEDIA AWARDS
A broader look at today’s business
www.businessmirror.com.ph
Thursday, January 11, 2024 Vol. 19 No. 88
BSP: DOUBLE-DIGIT DIPS ■
P. | | 7 DAYS A WEEK
HIT OCT, 10-MO FDI FLOW B C U. O
T
@caiordinario
HE Philippines failed to attract more foreign investments as the latest data showed Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows posted doubledigit contractions in October 2023, according to the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP). In a statement, BSP said FDI inflows declined 29.6 percent to $655 million in October 2023 and by 17.5 percent to $6.5 billion in the January to October 2023 period. “While FDI continued to record net inflows, the recent decline in levels reflects the adverse impact of persistent inflationary pressures and slowing global growth prospects on investor decisions,” BSP said. The October 2023 FDI inflow contraction of 29.6 percent marked the third consecutive month of decline. Data showed that FDI inflows in 2023 only turned positive in February with a growth of 11.2 perC A
INDONESIAN President Joko Widodo and Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. walk past portraits of former Presidents Ferdinand Marcos Sr. and Diosdado Macapagal during his visit at Malacañang Palace in Manila on Wednesday, January 10, 2024. EZRA ACAYAN/POOL PHOTO VIA AP
PHL EYES 10% EXPORT GROWTH PHL, Indon deal on RE IN ’24, BUT PEDP WARRANTS 40% B A E. S J @andreasanjuan
T
HE Philippines is aiming to grow its exports by at least 10 percent in 2024, according to the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI). “Based on market projections, without any...business as usual, [growth is] about 10 percent. So definitely, we’ll try to achieve more than 10 percent for export growth,” DTI-Export Marketing Bureau (EMB) Director Bianca Pearl R. Sykimte told reporters recently. However, to be able to adhere to the targets set in the Philippine
Export Development Plan (PEDP) 2023-2028, Sykimte said the country’s exports need to grow by about 40 percent from 2023. “But to be able to catch up with our PEDP target of around $140 billion, 40 percent growth [is needed],” the head of DTI’s export marketing arm explained. This 10-percent export growth target set by the Trade department is higher than the 5 percent to 6 percent export growth projection of the Philippine Exporters Confederation Inc. (Philexport), the umbrella organization of Philippine exporters. C A
to bank on private sector B S P. M @sam_medenilla
T
HE private sector will be playing a bigger role in addressing energy supply issues under a newly signed Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), which aims to promote renewable energy between the Philippines and Indonesia. President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr. and Indonesian President Joko Widodo witnessed the presentation of the MOU after their bilateral meeting in Malacañang last Wednesday. Marcos lauded the signing of the new accord, which he attributed to
the country’s stronger diplomatic ties with Indonesia through their Joint Plan of Action (JPA), which was finalized in September 2022. “Through this MOU, our countries create a new synergy as we cooperate to achieve energy security,” he said. Under the agreement, the Department of Energy (DOE) noted business sectors of both countries will cooperate “during periods of critical supply constraints on energy commodities such as coal and liquefied natural gas [LNG].”
Related story on Second Front Page, A14.
C A
PESO EXCHANGE RATES US 55.8320 ■ JAPAN 0.3865 ■ UK 70.9569 ■ HK 7.1436 ■ SINGAPORE 41.9569 ■ AUSTRALIA 37.3069 ■ SAUDI ARABIA 14.8886 ■ EU 61.0355 ■ KOREA 0.0423 ■ CHINA 7.7882 Source: BSP (January 10, 2024)