Airport Special Reports by BVI Beacon

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Festival Schedule Weekend & Culture

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The light that comes from wisdom never goes out.

Thursday, July 26, 2012 |

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FESTIVAL TIME SPECIAL REPORT: AIRPORT PART 1 Questions remain about EIS runway extension

Stamp duty report tabled

Experts: Direct flights not a sure thing

By CHRYSTALL KANYUCK ckanyuck@bvibeacon.com

By JASON SMITH jsmith@bvibeacon.com

Among other business during a Tuesday sitting of the House of Assembly, legislators explained planned changes to labour policy, tabled the 2010 stamp duty report, amended two laws, chastised the media for “reckless” reporting, and chose a territorial song and dress. They are to continue their sitting today. Deputy Premier Dr. Kedrick Pickering, who is also the minister of natural resources and labour,

Five scale model passenger airplanes sit in a neatly arranged row above Denniston Fraser’s desk at the BVI Airports Authority. Only one of the models’ life-size counterparts currently flies here. Three of the models represent wide-body jets like the Boeing767 that won’t be flying to the Virgin Islands anytime soon. A much larger version of another model, LIAT’s 50-passenger turboprop DHC-8, takes off several times a day from the 4,350-foot Runway see page 30

Photo: TODD VANSICKLE

José Santiago replaces a coloured light bulb on the Ferris wheel on Tuesday afternoon at the Festival Village Grounds. The ride is one of nine attractions that Coney Island officials were preparing for the opening of this year’s Claudette “Boopie” Smith Festival Village slated for today. See story on page 16.

By TODD VANSICKLE tvansickle@bvibeacon.com

HOA see page 28

From trunker to tagger Leatherbacks monitored

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New labour policies unveiled at HOA

s a boy Austin Freeman went with his grandfather to kill leatherback turtles for meat and oil. “When trunk season come it had me excited. Even if we don’t catch, I still felt good because I just liked to see them,” Mr. Freeman said. “It fascinated me.” Nowadays Mr. Freeman, a senior BVI Customs officer who is almost 50, spends his free time recording and protecting the endangered animals that nest along the shores of Tortola. Although he has been a volunteer with the Conservation and Fisheries Department

for more than 20 years, he still struggles to convince some people that he is protecting the leatherbacks and not harming them. According to Mr. Freeman, leatherback hunting was a “tradition” in the Virgin Islands, but it is now fading away with hunters like Mr. Freeman’s grandfather, who died in the 1970s. They were known as “trunkers,” reportedly because the Danes claimed the turtle resembled a large leather trunk. In many cases, beaches took on the name as well. The oil that trunkers collected from the turtles was used for home remedies for asthma and other ailments and would sell for $35 to $200 a bottle, Mr. Freeman said. The meat and eggs were eaten. In the 1960s, Mr. Freeman remembers trunkers showing off their catch at Josiahs Bay

to schoolchildren during a picnic-style setting where turtles would “provide plenty of food.” “We used to catch it for medicine and food, and now we are trying to protect it for my grandchildren so that [leatherbacks] don’t become extinct,” Mr. Freeman said. In 1989 a moratorium on killing the leatherbacks was put into effect by the Ministry of Natural Resources and Labour. Around the same time, Mr. Freeman started volunteering with the CFD, tagging nesting leatherbacks. Currently only three people — Mr. Freeman and CFD officers Joel Dore and Gary Frett — tag the leatherbacks in the VI, according to Mr. Dore. The three men are the only ones who officially monitor Tortola’s

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Special Report

Runway from page 1 runway located a few hundred feet outside Mr. Fraser’s office at the Terrance B. Lettsome International Airport. But it’s the plane shown in the fifth model, a miniature of the 189-passenger Boeing 737-800, that the BVIAA managing director and other officials hope will make frequent trips between the mainland United States and the VI in the coming years. Through statements in the House of Assembly, Deputy Premier Dr. Kedrick Pickering has made it clear that the planning stages of the 2,500-foot runway extension project are well under way: Residents have been consulted, the environmental impact has been studied, and contractors were recently invited to express interest in the job. He added Tuesday before the HOA that his Ministry of Natural Resources and Labour is assembling teams to support the project. “Our progress thus far looks good and we are on target to commence ground-breaking by the beginning of 2013,” he said. But despite the statements that Dr. Pickering and other supporters have made about the project, there has been vocal opposition from some community members. Opponents have raised questions that they say have not been adequately answered: • If the territory can even afford a multimillion-dollar runway at a time of economic recession, is it a wise investment, and how will it be funded? • If the runway is extended, will passenger demand be enough to bring the direct flights from the US and other countries that government has promised? • Will large jets be prepared to land on the runway despite the technical challenges consultants have warned about? [See page 31]

The plans

Dr. Pickering has treated the expansion, which was promised last year in his National Democratic Party’s manifesto, as an election mandate. At the first of two public meetings on the topic, in March, he said he wasn’t there to discuss whether the project should be carried out, but how it should proceed. And, standing before the HOA on June 29, Dr. Pickering answered that question, too: He announced that work would start after the contractor or contractors

irgin Islands leaders and airport managers have had to work hard to keep up with planes ever since 1956, when the first runway, a 1,800-foot dirt landing strip, was cleared on Beef Island. Initially, agriculture generated most of the airport’s traffic, but tourism soon took hold in the territory. Future expansions designed to accommodate bigger planes were studied and approved by successive governments, including the current one.

are chosen by December to extend the existing runway about 2,500 feet: about 2,000 east into the sea and some 500 feet west into Well Bay. The runway portion of the project should be complete by December 2015, Dr. Pickering said. The plans also include upgrades to other infrastructure: the airport “ramp” where jets will park; the passenger terminal; and the nearby parking lot, according to a recent government advertisement inviting firms to express interest in the project. A new welcome centre, ferry docks and a fixed-base oper-

ator facility, which will service aircraft, are also in the works. The expansion is designed to allow commercial jets to operate out of Beef Island. Currently, the largest plane operating there regularly is the 70-passenger ATR-72. The extension, Mr. Fraser said, would be designed to bring the Boeing 737700, which seats up to 149; the Boeing 737-800, which seats up to 189; and the Airbus 320, which normally seats about 150. Technically, such jets are already able to land on the existing runway. However, when they are loaded with enough fuel to fly to

the US mainland, they become too heavy to take off with a full passenger load, according to the Louis Berger Group, a team of Washington DC-based consultants who were hired in 2007 to produce strategic and master plans for the territory’s airports. The extended runway will also be long enough for some models of Boeing-757, which can seat as many as 240 passengers, although such planes likely would have to keep some of their seats empty to stay under their maximum weight limit to take off from Beef Island, Mr. Fraser, the BVIAA managing direc-

tor, said in an interview this month. He added that private jets, some of which are reluctant to fly here in poor weather because they’d like to see an additional 500 feet of landing space, will also benefit from the expansion. “They will have way more than 500 feet; they will have 2,000,” Mr. Fraser said of the planned expansion, adding that it will mean that the private jets’ range will no longer be limited by the length of the VI runway but by the amount of fuel they can carry.

Runway see page 31

Special Report

The BVI Beacon | Thursday, July 26, 2012

Consultant advises against using the existing runway alignment But others say challenges are surmountable By JASON SMITH jsmith@bvibeacon.com In order for the runway expansion project to be successful, officials have to find funding, pick the right contractor and convince airlines to fly here. But another challenge could be technical. Deputy Premier Dr. Kedrick Pickering announced in the House of Assembly on June 29 that the Terrance B. Lettsome International Airport’s existing runway would be expanded by 2,500 feet, a $38 million project he previously called Option Six. But that decision to extend the existing runway goes against the advice of one consulting team, which recommended reorienting the runway to the northeast, a $70 million plan presented to the public as Option Four.

Challenges posed

Simply extending the runway along its current alignment isn’t a good idea, consultants with the Louis Berger Group wrote in a master plan submitted to the BVI Airports Authority last year. The consultants noted that hills surrounding Beef Island obstruct the path of landing planes. Such obstructions generally aren’t a problem in good weather, because pilots — although they typically prefer to make a straight-in descent — are able to land using a curved path that keeps them a safe distance above the high terrain. But when visibility is limited or the weather is bad, pilots preparing to land have to be guided by the plane’s instruments until they can see the runway, according to pilots interviewed for this article. When an airport has certain navigation equipment installed, jets such as the Boeing-737 can use a “precision instrument” approach when landing. The equipment supplies pilots with readings of the plane’s horizontal and vertical location in relation to the runway. At Beef Island, however, the

Graphic: PROVIDED The proposed expansion extends the runway along its existing alignment about 2,000 feet to the east and about 500 feet to the west. hills that require a curved landing path mean a precision instrument approach isn’t an option, the Berger consultants wrote. Currently, the airport has the proper equipment to allow for a “non-precision instrument” approach, which provides horizontal but not vertical guidance, BVIAA Managing Director Denniston Fraser said in a recent interview.

Five options

Of 16 runway expansion options they originally considered, the Berger consultants narrowed the field down to five, which they examined in more depth. Two of those five reoriented the runway, and one extended the existing runway by a few hundred feet but wouldn’t accommodate commercial jets. “Two additional alternatives were studied to extend the existing runway [along its current alignment]. However, due to the lack to provide instrument approach for Code 4C aircraft [including jets such as the Boeing 737], these options are not recommended,” the report stated. After reviewing the Berger report, the Airport Development Committee, which consisted mainly of BVIAA employees, created Option Six. This option, which Berger never considered, also extends the runway along its existing alignment. John Morrison, a former VI cargo pilot who has been critical of the proposed runway expansion, said the lack of a precision instrument approach means that in bad weather, jets will be unable to land at Beef Island and will be forced to divert to a nearby airport. The

airlines may not tolerate the hassle and expense of a diversion, he said. “They’re not going to do it. The cost is enormous. People are talking about big jets, 300 passengers. You’d get stuck in St. Croix with 300 passengers overnight or something,” he said. Mr. Morrison said he remains sceptical that large jets would fly here. “It’s not like the old baseball movie: Build it and we will come. [The extended runway will] be a big old expensive white elephant, I think,” he said.

Experts unconcerned

Other experts, though, believe that the non-precision instrument approach will be sufficient. After Berger completed its analysis, the aviation consulting firm Ricondo and Associates contributed to the Runway Extension Impact Assessment, which was completed in May. The consultants found that “due to the low occurrence of weather conditions requiring precision-instrument approaches, a nonprecision instrument approach is considered sufficient during poor weather conditions.” The Ricondo consultants added that they spoke with representatives from US airlines that fly the 189passenger Boeing 737-800. The airlines said that a type of non-precision instrument approach known as “area navigation procedures,” which uses navigation beacons, would be acceptable for their jets, according to the Ricondo report. Dr. David Esser, a professor of aeronautical science at Embry Riddle Aeronautical University, said he doubts that the lack of a precision instrument approach

would prevent airlines from offering flights here. “Given the type of climate you have in the Caribbean, it’s not as critical of an issue,” he said, adding that cold and snowy airports in the northeastern US would be more affected. Dr. Esser said that the type of pilots the airlines hire would have ample training and experience to make a non-precision instrument approach. “It’s not a safety issue,” he said.

GPS approaches

According to Mr. Fraser, the BVIAA director, bad weather affects VI airport operations “not even 10 percent of the time.” He added that when weather requires it, pilots can also use GPS, the satellite-guided location tracking technology, to guide a plane along a pre-designated route. “You fly to this GPS waypoint, and then this waypoint and then this waypoint and this waypoint, and hopefully then you can see the runway,” he said, tracing a finger along a printed approach chart that guides pilots during landing. Mr. Fraser said that he is not concerned that the lack of a precision instrument approach will prevent airlines from coming here. “I would say no because the technology has evolved; more and more aircraft are getting GPS approaches,” he said. A United Kingdom-based company, Davidson Ltd., has been contracted to design the extended runway’s approach chart, which ultimately will have to be approved by Air Safety Support International, the territory’s regulator, Mr. Fraser said.

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Runway from page 30 New passengers

Though there are various technical challenges with government’s plan, the Berger consultants’ findings suggest that it is feasible: Commercial jets could indeed operate out of an expanded runway on Beef Island, according to the report. But would they? The answer to this question is less clear. Dr. Pickering has said that tourist demand is enough to motivate airlines to fly regular direct flights from cities in the US and elsewhere. He added that his government is in talks with several airlines that may consider such flights, including two that are “gung ho” about the expansion. But he has yet to publicise a study that supports his claims about demand, and he acknowledged that carriers haven’t yet made firm commitments to fly here. “The simple answer would be yes, but it’s not that simple. It’s a process,” he said during the March meeting.

‘More iffy’

Thomas Tacker, an economics professor at Embry Riddle Aeronautical University, said enticing US carriers to serve the VI market is not a sure thing. Some airport developers ink contracts with airlines, expanding facilities for service guarantees. But in most cases, airlines decide where to fly based on what makes economic sense for them, Mr. Tacker said. “If they don’t have that kind of deal, I’d say it’s somewhat more iffy,” he said. Mr. Tacker, who wrote the textbook Introduction to Air Transport Economics, said that when determining a new route airlines first consider the population and the distance between potential destinations. “Then they’ll mix in some variables, such as, ‘Is this a popular tourist destination?’ They might look at hotel capacity: ‘Is Disney there or some other major attraction?’” he said. Then route planners look at a destination’s neighbours, he said. “Of course they’ll also look at — if they don’t have service to that city now — how far is that city from another city that they can go to,” he said.

San Juan as a hub

Lately, the VI’s neighbours have been getting considerable atRunway see page 32

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Runway from page 31 tention from US carriers. JetBlue — whose executives met with Dr. Pickering last month as he tried to entice them to fly to the VI — has added 23 Caribbean destinations to its routes in recent years. The airline’s San Juan hub offers flights to nine mainland US and three Caribbean cities. The airline is increasing flights to San Juan months after American Eagle Airlines announced in March that it plans to cut its flights there. Omer ErSelcuk, the president and CEO of the USVI-based Seaborne Airlines, said he sees a bright future for the city, and a continued demand for smaller airlines like his to move passengers from PR to the VI. “San Juan is turning into a low fare focus city area for a number of carriers,” he said, referring to JetBlue, Southwest Airlines and Spirit Airlines. He added that those airlines may offer lower priced service than what larger airlines might offer on direct flights to the VI. “What you’ll have is much lower fares: The roundtrip fare will be 300 bucks into [San Juan’s Luis Munoz Marin International Airport from the US mainland]. It’s probably going to be about $700 or even $800 into Tortola if you compare what happened in the US Virgin Islands, because they figure that people will be willing to pay for a non-stop flight and they’ll charge [excessively] for it,” Mr. ErSelcuk said. Ultimately, though, enticing airlines to fly directly to the VI may depend on two factors: tourists’ demand for VI vacations and the financial health of the airlines themselves. Mr. Tacker, the economist, said he believes that the coming years may be better for the industry than the recent past. “Even now with the economy kind of weak, they’re still doing half decently. I think the merger activity and the consolidation has really helped them, and they are poised to do much better in the future,” he said.

Demand question

The Berger study took a stab at the question of passenger demand, but its projections included assumptions about the VI’s tourism product that now seem outdated. According to consultants, the

Runway see page 33

Special Report

Consultants’ reports not public yet But meetings held By JASON SMITH jsmith@bvibeacon.com Speaking to hundreds of Virgin Islands residents on March 27 at the East End/Long Look Community Centre, Deputy Premier Dr. Kedrick Pickering said that the public meeting he was about to convene aimed to kill “three birds with one stone.” The meeting, his government’s first comprehensive presentation about the proposed runway expansion at Beef Island, served to fulfill the “public consultation” requirement of the 2004 Physical Planning Act, he said. Secondly, residents’ feedback would be useful to the consultants compiling the project’s impact assessment, added Dr. Pickering, who is also the minister of natural resources and labour. “Thirdly, the government that I am a part of promised to be transparent and open, and so public meetings are a part of our organisation and a part of our modus operandi,” he said. In the four months since he made that statement, his government has partially complied with his promise. Dr. Pickering gave two detailed statements to the House of Assembly in two months describing the runway project’s progress. He and other ministers also addressed residents’ concerns at public meetings and on the National Democratic Party’s radio programme.

‘Private’ documents

However, officials have thus far declined to make public two detailed studies about the expansion: the BVI Airports Authority Master and Strategic Plan produced by the Louis Berger Group, and an impact assessment created by Kraus-Manning and a team of consultants. The Berger study contains 342 pages of technical information on various topics: the state of the existing airport; the 16 runway expansion alternatives considered; passenger estimates; financial projections; and the consultants’ final conclusions. Berger’s conclusions included a recommendation against extending the runway along its existing alignment, due to technical concerns. Dr. Pickering did not mention this

Photo: JASON SMITH Residents weighed in on the runway extension during a meeting in East End on March 27. Two public meetings were held about the project, but consultants’ reports have yet to be released to the public.

“I don’t know that government would want to keep this sort of information private. That’s the whole point of having these consultations: so that government can stand and say, ‘This is what the consultant said we could or could not do.” DR. KEDRICK PICKERING Deputy Premier recommendation when he announced in the HOA last month that the runway would be extended along its existing alignment. At the March 27 public meeting, Dr. Pickering suggested that a resident’s question about the expected economic benefits could be answered by the consultants’ studies. And when she asked if the re-

ports would be made public, the MNRL minister seemed to imply an affirmative response. “I don’t know that government would want to keep this sort of information private,” Dr. Pickering said. “That’s the whole point of having these consultations: so that government can stand and say, ‘This is what the consultant said we could or could not do.’” But weeks later, when this reporter asked for a copy of the Berger study on May 4, Dr. Pickering declined to provide it, calling it a “private document” that may contain proprietary information. The Beacon later viewed a copy of the report through another source, who did not wish to be identified.

Impact assessments

Additionally, consultants produced the Runway Expansion Impact Assessment in May and turned it over to government. Impact assessments normally become public documents eventually, but this one hasn’t been released. The assessment is still under review and “will be ready for public consumption” at an unknown future date, Ronald Smith-Berkeley, the permanent secretary in the MNRL, said this month. That 134-page document and its accompanying appendices, a copy of which was provided to the Beacon by another

source, detail the expansion’s potential environmental, economic, cultural and social impacts. A third document, the runway expansion’s “business plan,” could shed more light on the project’s financial feasibility, but it hasn’t yet been completed, BVI Airports Authority Managing Director Denniston Fraser said. Under the Protocols for Effective Financial Management signed by the VI and United Kingdom governments in April, an “appraisal and business case” must be produced and reviewed by Cabinet before a decision is made to proceed with the project. It is unclear whether the business case will eventually be made public. After returning this reporter’s phone call on May 4, Dr. Pickering said that he wouldn’t give any interviews about the project that weren’t broadcast live via television or radio due to concerns that his words would be taken out of context. Since then, he did not respond to several phone calls and two written requests for an interview about the runway expansion. Speaking before the HOA Tuesday Dr. Pickering said his ministry plans to appoint an information officer by Aug. 9, a position he said was “critical.” “We need to make a real effort to keep the public properly informed as to our progress,” he said.

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The BVI Beacon | Thursday, July 26, 2012

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Questions remain about runway’s costs, benefits

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Consultant calls for an analysis

airport saw about 157,000 arrivals in 2008. If the runway is not extended, their estimates suggest, this figure would rise to about 269,000 by 2030. If the runway is extended to about 6,200 feet – some 650 feet shorter than the proposed expansion – the number of arrivals would increase to about 298,800 passengers by 2030, the study suggests. And an 8,800-foot runway is predicted to bump the number up further to an estimated 308,900 arrivals. To create their projections, the Berger consultants assumed that the number of passengers using the airport would be dependent on the number of hotel rooms and charter yachts in the territory. According to their projections, in 2007 there were a total of 1,875 rooms at hotels and villas available for rent in the VI. Additionally, there were about 1,000 yachts in the territory the same year, according to the study. In order to forecast room growth, Berger examined four major resorts that were in development as of 2008. Those projects were slated to add more than 800 rooms by 2030. While two of the developments — Oil Nut Bay and the Scrub Island Resort — are functioning and capable of expansion, another — the 300-room five-star hotel proposed for Beef Island — was put on hold due to a legal challenge. The fourth development, which was to add 200 rooms at Smugglers Cove by 2019, was scrapped in 2009. Mr. Fraser, the BVIAA managing director, said he would like more to be done to predict passenger growth when the airport updates its strategic plan. Revised passenger projections, he said, could be calculated by taking into account factors such as vacationers’ demand to visit the territory. “I think if you’re doing a forecast for something like this, you need to look at it holistically; you need to look at the whole picture. More than just the number of rooms, I want to see what is the trend, what is the pattern,” he said.

By JASON SMITH jsmith@bvibeacon.com Deputy Premier Dr. Kedrick Pickering may be spearheading the proposal to expand the runway at the Terrance B. Lettsome International Airport, but his government’s ability to execute the project may be limited by what officials in London think of it. Undertaking a capital project of this magnitude — $38 million, according to government’s estimates — has become more complicated since Premier Dr. Orlando Smith signed the Protocols for Effective Financial Management with the United Kingdom in April. Under the agreement, which commits the government to pass an “enhanced” Public Finance Management Act by next month, capital projects worth more than about $11 million have to go through a detailed planning, evaluation and management process. Specifically, the protocols state that before contracts are signed, a project must be “suitably appraised” to ensure that the territory receives “value for money.” The protocols also require officials to produce a “business case” that explains the economic rationale for the project and includes a “robust cost-benefit analysis.” Cabinet then has to use that analysis in deciding whether to approve the project.

Other studies

While the Berger report considered the feasibility of expanding the runway and the Kraus-Manning assessment investigated some of the potential effects, it is unclear whether either of those studies satisfies the protocols’ requirements. Denniston Fraser, the BVI Airports Authority managing director, said in an interview this month that a separate business plan has been drafted and Ministry of Finance officials are currently reviewing it. Attempts to reach Financial Secretary Neil Smith were unsuccessful as of the Beacon’s print deadline yesterday. The protocols do not explicitly

Photo: JASON SMITH Premier Dr. Orlando Smith, left, signed the Protocols for Effective Financial Management in April along with Governor Boyd McCleary and Henry Bellingham, the Foreign and Commonwealth Office’s minister for the overseas territories. The agreement with the United Kingdom requires the government to conduct a “robust cost-benefit analysis” before starting work on major capital projects, such as the airport expansion. give the UK government the power to veto VI capital projects. But, because the territory is currently in breach of the UK’s borrowing guidelines, officials have to receive written approval from UK Secretary of State William Hague before taking out new loans. Additionally, unless Mr. Hague gives his approval, the VI government can’t borrow for any project unless it is forecast to “yield sufficient revenues to fund the additional debt service costs,” according to the protocols.

US requirements

In the United States, the Federal Aviation Administration requires airports that seek more than $10 million in FAA grant funding to perform a cost-benefit analysis. The agency doesn’t make the decision to fund a project until an analysis is complete, according to a statement from the administration. The analyses, which are only part of the decision-making

process, help policymakers “focus attention” on whether a project’s benefits are justified by their expense, according to the FAA. The agency considers passengers’ reduction in travel time as a key benefit of expansion. “This reduction in travel time may be in the form of a more efficient flow of people through the airport system or reduced passenger delay. To estimate these cost savings it is therefore critical that the [cost-benefit analysis] attempts to estimate current and future passenger demand,” the agency wrote in a statement. Dr. Birney Harrigan wrote in the VI project’s socioeconomic impact report that the expansion’s costs and benefits can’t always be measured in dollars. “Stakeholders’ common refrain, ‘What are we giving up and what are we getting?’ deserves an answer that calls for a cost-benefit analysis to fully understand the value of the territory’s investment

in airport infrastructure,” she wrote in the report. The “non-economic” benefits and costs can best be assessed through future studies by aviation planners, oceanographers, coastal engineers, ecologists and anthropologists, Dr. Harrigan wrote.

Planning process

Meanwhile, the planning process is moving ahead as well. Though a development application has not been filed, Chief Planner Marva Titley-Smith said the Town and Country Planning Department has been informally working with the Ministry of Natural Resources and Labour to ensure that the planning process is followed. After a particular plan is developed and submitted, Ms. Titley-Smith said, the TCPD may ask for further studies to detail the impact. The Planning Authority would ultimately need to approve any expansion before it starts, she said.

Development

Existing rooms aside, others argue that the airport expansion itself would help spur demand and development alike. Since the mid-1960s, tourism has taken off in the territory, rising

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Runway from page 33 to be the islands’ main source of employment and a key provider of government revenue. Its success and the perceived need to bring more tourists motivated the 1999 addition of about 1,000 feet to the airport’s runway. A 10-year “National Tourism Development Strategy” produced by the consulting firm Coopers and Lybrand in 1996 called air access an issue that “needs to be addressed as a matter of priority.” A follow-up tourism report published in 2006 by Oyster Global Marketing echoed that sentiment, urging government to “accelerate the extension of Beef Island runway” and develop strategies to increase the number of seats air carriers offered to the territory. Russell Harrigan, the author of the 2006 report and the current BVI Tourist Board chairman, said in an interview this month that he is not aware of any studies that estimate the number of tourists who would want to come to the VI if direct flights were available. But Mr. Harrigan, who is also the owner of the Beacon, added that he believes there is “absolutely no question” that airlines will be able to find enough willing passengers to make direct flights to the mainland US profitable. He added that he also feels it is possible to find enough new wealthy visitors to fill airline seats without resorting to a “mass market” strategy. “When you look at the wealth creation in the world, the amount of wealth that is constantly being created, the question is how do we attract the segment of the market that we are looking for, which is the high end,” Mr. Harrigan said.

New investment?

The BVITB chairman added that the organisation plans to ramp up its marketing efforts in the coming years to encourage additional tourists to visit. He also believes there will be plenty of available rooms for future visitors, predicting that the expanded runway will encourage a wave of new investment. “[The expansion] is an element that will encourage investors to put cement in the ground,” Mr. Harrigan said. David Johnson, the developer behind the Oil Nut Bay Villa community in North Sound, Virgin Gorda, said he believes that the expansion will bring enough interested passengers from commercial and private jets to create a

Special Report

Photo: TODD VANSICKLE Deputy Premier Dr. Kedrick Pickering said this week that he expects construction to start early next year on the runway extension at the Terrance B. Lettsome International Airport. 10-month tourism season. “It can’t be an if. The airport has to be expanded to sustain tourism in the BVI. The rest of the world has adapted to the changing tourism market,” he said in a March interview. Mr. Johnson hopes to eventually build 88 villas on ONB’s 300acre property, though the project could take several years. Currently, seven are built or under construction, but the development’s affiliation with the recently built Yacht Club Costa Smeralda, an offshoot of a Sardinia, Italy-based yacht club, is beginning to garner international visitor interest in North Sound, Mr. Johnson said.

Residents’ concerns

But some VI residents feel that the increased visitor numbers could also bring major environmental problems and other negative consequences that could be detrimental to the territory’s tourism industry. In order to gauge the runway expansion’s potential socioeconomic impact, a consultant, Dr. Birney Harrigan, was hired by government to conduct multiple interviews and focus groups with residents, business owners and others. “While some BVI stakeholders question whether expanding the runway is the best way forward, others argue that the government needs to proceed with caution without destroying one of the territory’s beautiful natural resources, Trellis Bay,” the socioeconomic impact report states. “The capacity of the marine and terrestrial environments needs to be studied very carefully and with some urgency, especially because of the increased pressures from the influx of visitors and workers that will result if the goal of a larger

runway is realised.”

Funding

Questions have also been raised about how the project will be funded in a time of economic uncertainty, when the territory owes tens of millions for other major capital projects that have faced delays in recent years. But during the March public meeting in EE/LL, Dr. Pickering told residents he had been receiving calls from prospective financiers “almost on a daily basis.” “They see the BVI as a great investment and the potential for this airport as being tremendous,” said the deputy premier, who did not identify any of the potential financiers. “So there’s no shortage of interest as far as the financing and the financing availability.” Speaking before the HOA Tuesday, Dr. Pickering said that he hopes five to 10 contractors will have expressed their interest in the project by next week. The governments of Canada and China have already made submissions, he said. The initial studies have been funded and about $2.3 million in airport development fees has been set aside, Mr. Fraser told the Standing Finance Committee earlier this year. However, the expansion’s estimated $38 million cost will have to be raised through loans, Dr. Pickering said in March. This cost could be increased by several million dollars if certain environmental mitigation measures are put in place to preserve water circulation in Trellis Bay, according to the Kraus-Manning impact assessment. Any new borrowing would be added to government’s debt burden at a time when the existing runway is not yet paid off. According to the 2012 budget estimates,

about $13.7 million in loans related to the 1999 runway and terminal expansion are still owed to the BVI Social Security Board and the Caribbean Development Bank.

Financial feasibility

Project opponents have also challenged the accuracy of government’s $38 million cost estimate, citing substantial overruns on other capital projects. But Dr. Pickering has downplayed the extent of the financial commitment. “I will hasten to add that, based on revenue projections … we expect that the airport will be able to pay for its own development,” Dr. Pickering said in March. The Berger study, however, included a series of forecasts that suggest that several of the expansion options government considered would actually lose money. Berger forecasted the net present value of five runway expansion alternatives using the cost estimates and passenger projections the firm developed. Net present value is a type of financial analysis that compares the projected revenues and expenses of a project with its development costs. For four of the five expansion options studied — all except for a shorter extension that wouldn’t allow the commercial jets the government seeks to attract — Berger calculated negative net present values, indicating that the future cash flows produced by the expansion would also be negative. Berger, however, did not analyse the particulars of the option currently on the table —“Option Six,” which was created after the Berger study by the VI’s Airport Development Committee — and government has not publicised any detailed financial analysis.

Still, even if the runway doesn’t pay for itself as promised, it could bring other perks. Mr. Johnson, the ONB developer, said he considers his company to be in a “strategic alliance” with the VI government because a portion of each multimillion-dollar sale of land at ONB generates tax revenue. “The government stamp duty from Oil Nut Bay will pay off the new runway,” he said.

Hen or egg?

But even if funding can be found and other details ironed out, questions will likely remain about the project. Historically, worries about the merits of runway expansion are not new. On April 12, 1969, 40-year-old Hamilton Lavity Stoutt, then two years into his term as the territory’s first chief minister, stood before a small crowd gathered at Beef Island to inaugurate the newly paved 3,600-foot runway. Mr. Stoutt said that it was “almost redundant” for him to repeat that the VI was committed to “a course of tourism.” But first, policymakers had to settle a question, he said: “Which came first: the egg or the hen?” “Should we proceed from the demand side or from the supply side?” he asked. “Should we provide decent access and so stimulate additional hotel rooms, or should the provision of hotel rooms force the provision of access?” This article, the first of a two-part special report on the proposed runway expansion, investigated the project’s likelihood to achieve its goals. The second part of this report will explore the project’s potential environmental, social and economic impacts.

INSIDE:

Festival Schedule Weekend & Culture

— page 6

Thursday, August 2, 2012 |

The light that comes from wisdom never goes out.

| bvibeacon.com | 50 cents

KIDDIES FIESTA SPECIAL REPORT: AIRPORT PART 2 Residents worried about EIS expansion’s impact Effects on Trellis Bay a concern By JASON SMITH jsmith@bvibeacon.com Though their articles appeared in separate publications six months apart, the two writers came to similar conclusions about the challenges and benefits of visiting the Virgin Islands. “It requires effort to reach the British Virgin Islands but the Caribbean archipelago offers idyllic rewards,” Mary Wilson, a Financial Times journalist, wrote in her July 6 article about trends in VI property sales, titled “Happy Bays.”

Airport see page 30

Photo: NGOVOU GYANG

Participants in the Rotary Club of Road Town’s annual Kiddies Fiesta march through the capital on Saturday (see story on page 10). Though the event is independent, it is scheduled each year to coincide with the August Emancipation Festival, which officially opened later that day at the Festival Village (see story on page 14).

Stamp duty underpayment cost gov’t $3.4m Report: Scant evidence of intentional fraud

INSIDE

By CHRYSTALL KANYUCK ckanyuck@bvibeacon.com A yearlong inquiry into underpayments of stamp duty found that a systemic problem, rather than any one particular error, cost the government $3,430,885 in six years. The commissioner who headed the probe made a series of recom-

mendations for improving the process, but found “no evidence of an intention to defraud, save perhaps in a single case.” The Report of the Commission of Inquiry into the Possible Undervaluing of Property to Avoid Chargeable Stamp Duty was tabled in the House of Assembly July 24. Of the transferred properties valued at $750,000 or more between 2000 and 2006, 22 were “potentially contentious transactions,” mean-

ing that the parties involved may have underpaid stamp duty, according to the report. “The commission is satisfied that … the inadequacies and inefficiencies in the legal regime and administrative structure and practices in the Inland Revenue Department have resulted in a substantial leakage of stamp duty,” the report states. In April 2009, the commission appointed Deloitte & Touche as forensic accountants to “go

through the data at the Land Registry and Inland Revenue Department to identify transactions which may have been improperly assessed for stamp duty,” the report states. The firm’s investigation, included in the report as an appendix, focused on property transfers with a value of $750,000 or more made between 2000 and 2006. The bulk of the underpaid duty – $3.1 million – came from

Stamp see page 28

Page 30 | Thursday, August 2, 2012 | The BVI Beacon

Airport from page 1 And Daily Mail writer Richard Pendlebury spent the first seven paragraphs of his Jan. 4 article “Bewitched by the Bay” describing his delayed air arrival to the territory from the United Kingdom. “The BVI positively celebrates the fact that it has no direct air service from the UK or North American mainland,” he wrote. “That makes it more untouched, exclusive and desirable.” For better or worse, those perceptions about the VI may soon change if the proposal to add nearly 2,500 feet to the runway at Terrance B. Lettsome International Airport moves ahead as planned. Deputy Premier Dr. Kedrick Pickering and other National Democratic Party leaders have described the project as crucial to boosting tourism and spurring future development. But some residents, including several who live near the airport, have raised objections. Their concerns include fears that the project could reduce water quality, change water circulation and threaten marine life in Trellis and Well bays; that jet noise, construction and restrictions on yachts near the runway could harm Beef Island businesses; and that the VI’s culture and environment could be irrevocably altered for the worse, imperiling the current tourism product. In preparation for the project, government hired a team of consultants to study the potential environmental, economic and social impacts of the expansion. The Runway Expansion Impact Assessment the consultants complete in May isn’t yet public, though a copy was leaked to the Beacon. The study and its appendices discuss in detail some of the concerns that residents have been voicing about the expansion since the proposal was formally presented to the public at two meetings in March. The assessment was produced by a team of consultants headed by the firm Kraus-Manning. They included Clive Petrovic, a biologist; a group of aviation consultants from the company Ricondo and Associates; and Dr. Birney Harrigan, who wrote the socioeconomic portion of the report.

Two options

During the March meetings, Dr. Pickering and BVI Airports

Special Report

How construction may unfold

xtending the Terrance B. Lettsome International Airport runway by about 2,500 feet could begin early next year, Deputy Premier Dr. Kedrick Pickering has said. The Runway Expansion Impact Assessment explains that construction likely would take place in five phases, which would include filling in a portion of Trellis and Well bays, followed by widening and lengthening the runway. The report does not detail how long each phase is expected to take, but Dr. Pickering said he hopes the project will be complete by December 2015. The consultants recommended that construction take place at night in order to minimise the impact on the airport’s operations. Their assessment mentions the possibility of placing a portion of the runway on elevated metal platforms, but its explanation of the construction process, below, assumes that the in-fill method will be used instead. Phase 1: Workers will dredge the seabed, gathering material to fill more than 27 acres of land in Trellis and Well bays.

Phase 2: First, the runway on the Trellis Bay in-fill land will be built. Then workers will create a new route for the road along the Well Bay end of the runway and destroy the old road.

Phase 3: Workers will prepare a temporary runway entrance and taxiway so that the portion of the runway on the in-fill land in Trellis Bay can be used as the airport’s runway while work takes place on the western end.

Phase 4: The Trellis Bay portion of the runway extension will be officially commissioned, bringing the operable runway to 5,462 feet. Construction work on the western portion of the runway on the Well Bay infill land will begin. Phase 5: The centre of the existing runway will be widened and the temporary taxiway will be demolished. When complete, the new runway will be approximately 7,000 feet long, enabling commercial jets to land. Graphic: DAVID HELDRETH Authority officials showed the public two alternatives being considered for the runway expansion. Option Four, which involved reorienting the runway to the northeast at a cost of $70 million, would have maintained a wide opening into Trellis Bay but would

have eliminated an ecologically important salt pond north of the existing runway. In June, Dr. Pickering announced that the decision had been taken to move ahead with Option Six, a 2,500-foot extension along the current runway’s existing align-

ment. About 2,000 feet of the lengthened runway will jut out into Trellis Bay, while about 500 feet will be extended into Well Bay, he said. The option saves the salt pond and requires less of the seabed to be marred by in-fill land – only 37.4 acres of fill will have to be dredged

up and placed in Well and Trellis bays as opposed to the estimated 82.8 acres of fill that would be required under Option Four. But Option Six would significantly narrow the gap between the end of the runway and Sprat Point, Jump see page 31

Special Report

Last Resort imperiled by airport expansion Owners worried about future By JASON SMITH jsmith@bvibeacon.com To the guests eating dinner at The Last Resort, the planes taking off and landing at the Terrance B. Lettsome International Airport already seem close. They may get a lot closer. The restaurant on Bellamy Cay sits in Trellis Bay only a few hundred feet from the site where the existing runway may be extended about 2,000 feet into the bay. While Bellamy Cay itself won’t be physically impacted by the extension, the potential effects on Trellis Bay combined with the noise and restrictions on yacht traffic that the big jets will bring could doom the 40-year-old restaurant, its owners fear. Ben Bamford, who owns the business with his wife Jessica, said that the next few years of airport construction will be difficult. “I think our business will be untenable during that phase, and when it’s finished we don’t know what the new reality will be,” he said.

History

Tony Snell, Jessica’s father, founded the restaurant in 1972 after his previous restaurant on Little Jost Van Dyke was destroyed by fire. Mr. Snell found and eventually repaired the dilapidated building on Bellamy Cay, which hadn’t been used in several years. In 1954, Wladek Wagner, a Polish sailor, purchased the lease for Bellamy Cay for $75. He built the cay’s first structure – and helped construct the airport’s first runway – but Mr. Wagner’s business floundered, Mr. Bamford said. “It was going to be built as a small resort, but it was way ahead of its time. There wasn’t anything else in the tourism industry,” he said. A decade later, Mr. Snell had better luck as The Last Resort’s reputation among the sailing community grew. “It’s been known as a bit quirky, not always following all the rules. But people like that about it. It’s not a slick New York restaurant; it’s a quirky little BVI establishment,” Mr. Bamford said. Those quirks — which at one time included a resident donkey named “Chocolate” and currently include regular entertainment such

Photo: TODD VANSICKLE Bellamy Cay seen from the air. as a singing chef – may be imperiled by the “very noisy jets” the runway will bring, Mr. Bamford said.

Impact

The Runway Expansion Impact Assessment, compiled by a team of consultants and completed in May, suggested that the effects of the jet noise could be reduced if government retrofits the restaurant with soundproofing materials in an act of “demonstrable goodwill.” Mr. Bamford is sceptical that this measure will work. “I don’t quite know how they’re going to mitigate a big jet landing 50 feet from our restaurant,” he said. Noise is only one issue. In addition to a strong VI crowd, many of The Last Resort’s visitors come from charter yachts that Mr. Bamford fears would stop coming to the area if the runway obstructs entry to Trellis Bay. “How do the boats that want to come in come in with these mast height restrictions?” Mr. Bamford said. The impact assessment suggests that a mast-height restriction zone for yachts would need to be implemented at the Trellis Bay end of the expanded runway and along its side, but the precise distances aren’t listed. A drawing of the expansion also indicates that yachts will still be able to enter Trellis Bay through a 390-footwide entrance between Sprat Point and the end of the runway.

Government discussions

Deputy Premier Dr. Kedrick Pickering, who is spearheading the runway expansion project, has previously said that government is

considering ways to limit the impact to Bellamy Cay. During a March 27 public meeting at the East End/Long Look Community Centre, Mr. Snell, 90, rose to sing a calypso song he wrote in opposition to the expansion. Minutes later, Dr. Pickering addressed his concerns. “The government has no interest in destroying what goes on at Bellamy Cay; that’s not an issue that the government wants to deal with at all,” Dr. Pickering said. Then he paused for a moment before continuing. “But I also want to remind the gentleman from Bellamy Cay, there used to be a restaurant on Beef Island called Conch Shell. There used to be,” Dr. Pickering said, referring to a business that closed as a result of the previous runway expansion. Mr. Bamford said he was confused by those remarks. “I didn’t know what he was saying: If it was, ‘Don’t worry, you’ll be looked after just like there was compensation just like we gave to Conch Shell Point;’ or if he was saying, ‘Be careful because we can just eliminate you,’” Mr. Bamford said. The Snell family includes three generations who have a strong connection to The Last Resort and the VI, he added. “There was a lot of talk online of ‘Your bones won’t be buried here so why do you care?’ It’s important to understand that the business is owned by BVIslanders, long-term BVIslanders,” Mr. Bamford said, referring to the VI citizenship of his wife and her father. “It’s not an expatriate business.”

The BVI Beacon | Thursday, August 2, 2012

Airport from page 30 likely interfering with the current’s ability to naturally “flush” the bay, the consultants found. “Either runway extension option will involve substantial land reclamation into areas where strong currents are common. Therefore, some impact on the oceanographic processes should be expected. In particular, the question of alteration of currents and sediment transport is a major consideration,” consultants wrote in the impact assessment. In his public statements Dr. Pickering has sought to allay critics’ fears that Trellis Bay could become a “dead bay,” saying that consultants would model the current patterns before government proceeds with the development. “This government will do nothing to harm Trellis Bay,” he said at the March 27 public meeting, adding a few moments later that “no one in this room is more environmentalist than I am.” Dr. Pickering declined to be interviewed about the expansion in May, and since then he has not responded to several more requests for an interview.

Altered currents

The impact assessment found that changing the current could have wide reaching effects. “For example, the runway extension toward Trellis Bay could impact currents so that parts of Trellis Bay, or even more distant locations like Long Bay, may be affected. The result could be erosion and scouring of portions of the seabed or shore,” the assessment stated, though it adds that computer models of current activity “suggest such problems are unlikely to be serious.” But Chris Syms, the co-owner of De Loose Mongoose and the Beef Island Guest House, worries that if the current is impeded, the resulting changes could harm marine life in the bay or erode the existing beach. “Basically you’re putting an arm out into the current, reversing the flow of what is the flow now,” he said. The business owner said he would be less concerned if the airport extension is built on top of elevated platforms that allow water to circulate underneath. Dr. Pickering mentioned this possibility in the House of Assembly on June 29.

| Page 31

“This technology, even though new to the Caribbean region, has already been used elsewhere in the world in the construction of either runways, taxiways or aprons structures,” Dr. Pickering said. He added that he and BVIAA Managing Director Denniston Fraser recently visited the LaGuardia International Airport in New York City to view the platform technology in action. This method, however, could more than double the cost of the project. Placing the needed 242,000 square feet of the runway on elevated piles could add $34 to $62 million to the expansion’s estimated $38 million cost, according to the impact assessment.

Other mitigation

The consultants also analysed other options to preserve the bay’s circulation. A series of 29 10-footwide culverts below the runway would allow water to flow through, but would could cost an extra $8 to $10 million, they found. Additionally, those culverts might get blocked with marine life and require regular cleaning, according to the assessment. Another option, removing several hundred square feet of Sprat Point, would improve circulation and allow wider access for yachts, the consultants found. That alternative would also create about 140,000 to 170,000 cubic yards of fill that could be used to build the runway, they estimated. But tests would have to be done to make sure the material is hard enough to be used, the assessment added. This option could cost an additional $2 to $3 million in dredging and removal costs, though the assessment does not state how much it will cost to purchase the land from its current owner, Quorum [BVI] Limited. A fourth option, dredging a 4,000-foot channel parallel to the runway that would connect Trellis and Well bays to promote better flushing, would cost about $6 million to $8 million, according to the impact assessment. This alternative, however, is “considered an inefficient means to convey water between Trellis Bay and Well Bay,” the assessment stated. The channel it would require “may develop into a maintenance concern and possible debris trap,” the document added. “If insufficient water volume may pass through the channel during a normal tidal cycle it may lead to

Airport see page 32

Page 32 | Thursday, August 2, 2012 | The BVI Beacon

Airport from page 31 future water quality issues in Trellis Bay.” Aragorn Dick-Read, an artist and spokesman for the Trellis Bay Business Association, said that business owners in the area have serious doubts that the mitigation measures will be cost effective or function properly. “I haven’t seen anything that convinces me that they will, no. And I haven’t seen anything that convinces me that business as usual can carry on in Trellis Bay,” said Mr. Dick-Read, who owns Aragorn’s Studio in Trellis Bay and organises a regional arts and crafts fair in the area each year.

Marine impact

If the bays aren’t flushed properly and if sediment from construction isn’t properly contained, the effects could be disastrous for marine life in the area. “Without proper erosion control measures, sediment can pour into the sea and devastate the marine environments, turning the offshore coral reefs and sea grasses into a barren underwater wasteland,” the assessment stated. Healthy corals could be choked by the sediment, which would further harm fish and the wider ecosystem. Mr. Syms, the bar and guesthouse owner, has seen it happen before. In the late 1970s, there was plenty of marine life in the area, including “big schools of spotted eagle rays” he said. “Back in those days, if we got 15 boats in the bay, it was a big night,” Mr. Syms said. As more boats started anchoring there, they damaged what had been a healthy reef, he said, adding that the reef began to recover once government installed mooring balls in the bay. Things worsened a bit again in 2000 once construction began on the previous runway expansion, he said, adding that he fears a new round of construction could further damage sea life. “The environmental part is a huge concern for us,” he said. While much of the runway expansion’s impact can be mitigated, the destruction of sea life where the in-fill land will be placed is “unavoidable and a consequence of development,” the assessment stated.

“Everything in the footprint of the runway extension will be lost (except for what may be relocated). The underwater habitats are widespread, and much more exists beyond the direct impact zone. Coastal mangroves in the Well Bay area will also be affected,” the document added. Despite those impacts, the assessment also noted that “virtually nothing” of Beef Island’s “pristine and natural” habitat currently remains due to years of human habitation and development.

Other areas

The expansion’s impact could also be felt beyond Trellis and Well bays. Some of the sand that makes up Long Bay Beach may shift as a result of the changing current, but no net loss is expected, according to the assessment. Additionally, though it is outside of the project’s immediate footprint, the Hans Creek Fisheries Protected Area is “sufficiently close” to the construction zone to merit consideration, the assessment stated. “While it does not appear the fisheries area will be directly impacted by this project, issues may appear in the future that could require mitigation,” it said. Concern over the fisheries area has stymied development projects on Beef Island in the past. A proposal by Quorum [BVI] Limited to create a luxury resort and 18hole golf course there was stalled in 2009 by an environmental group’s lawsuit. The company originally purchased land for the development in July 1995, although the $80 million development wasn’t approved until about 10 years later, when then-Chief Minister Dr. Orlando Smith signed a preliminary development agreement with the company. In the subsequent months, the Virgin Islands Environmental Council, a group of concerned citizens, formed. The VIEC successfully challenged the development in High Court. A judge ruled in 2009 that because Hans Creek may have been “adversely affected” by the development, the planning application Dr. Smith’s government approved was “void for illegality.” But Quorum successfully appealed the judgment and won the right to continue with the development. However, while the pro-

Special Report ject’s development application is still on file at the Town and Country Planning Department, records indicate that nothing new has been filed in recent months. Quorom representatives did not respond to requests for comment. Noni Georges, a member of the VIEC, said the group has not reached a formal position on the runway extension proposal but plans to discuss the issue at an upcoming meeting.

Noise concerns

Beyond Beef Island several surrounding communities may also be impacted by the extra noise that bigger jets flying overhead can bring. Residents of Hodges Creek, Great Camanoe, Well Bay, Trellis Bay and Little Mountain will likely experience higher noise levels, and residents fear that their property values will go down, according to the assessment “There is a concern from residents that property prices might be affected by this form of ‘pollution.’ This aspect is difficult to prove and further financial research and reporting is recommended,” the report stated. Construction noise and dust could also affect businesses and residents in the area, the assessment found. “It is essential that we learn from the experiences and examples in the past. Construction activities must be designed and managed to reduce negative impacts on the environment beyond the immediate project footprint. Erosion control must be employed to prevent sediment loss to the coastal environment,” the assessment stated.

Business worries

In addition to the fears that some VI residents raised about the runway construction’s effects in the short term, others are concerned that the expansion could affect their livelihoods permanently. The assessment reported that Trellis Bay businesses and residents raised “serious warranted concerns” about the project, but it also suggested that “change can be adapted to and accommodated.” Mr. Dick-Read, of the Trellis Bay Business Association, said that besides the environmental concerns he is afraid that the additional restrictions on boat traffic the expanded runway could bring will harm businesses’ customer base. “The bottom line is that the

vessels that enjoy visiting Trellis Bay now — and [that] all of our businesses are dependent on — will not be coming to Trellis Bay as they have in the past,” he said, adding about 90 percent of his art studio’s customers are sailing guests. “The whole concept of business in Trellis Bay is dependent on boats arriving and people enjoying the benefits of the beach community and the natural environment, which will all be compromised,” he said.

Yachting concerns

Charter Yacht Society Chairman Tim Schaaf said the Trellis Bay area is a great place to entertain charter guests due to the full moon parties businesses there host monthly, and because some restaurants like The Last Resort and the nearby Pusser’s Marina Cay have developed a strong following among sailors. Additionally, the bay’s central location makes it a convenient place to anchor as yachts cruise around Tortola and the sister islands, he said. “Otherwise, it makes the trip from North Sound to Jost Van Dyke a very long trip,” he said. The captain added that the mast restrictions that the extended runway will bring, combined with the loss of mooring balls and Trellis Bay’s narrowed entrance, will make it much more complicated for ferries and yachts to share the bay. Mr. Syms, the guesthouse and bar owner, has seen his businesses grow and change since the late 1970s when he first came to the territory with his wife. While his four-bedroom guesthouse can accommodate about 10 people and was initially the focus of the business, traffic to De Loose Mongoose restaurant and bar eventually outpaced the guesthouse. But the guesthouse sometimes serves as an “airport hotel” for late-arriving visitors bound for sister island resorts, he added. “More and more as the airport grew, tourism grew, we became sort of the little hub for the other resorts because we’re so close to the airport,” Mr. Syms said. If the runway expansion reduces boat traffic into Trellis Bay, the businessman said, he hopes that the additional air arrivals will make up the difference for the lost restaurant and bar business. Still, he can only take so many

guests with his current facility. “If you’ve got a jet with 240 people and that jet can’t leave that night, where are those 240 people going to go? Not into my four bedrooms,” Mr. Syms said.

Focus groups

Dr. Harrigan performed the socioeconomic portion of the impact assessment through her consulting firm Reality Global. She conducted dozens of interviews and focus groups with parties likely to be affected by the runway expansion. Her portion of the assessment recommended that Trellis Bay business owners adapt to the change, noting that because several of the properties are on leased Crown land, their property values won’t be affected. “The additional demand from the expected increase in the number of visitors may require those businesses to rethink their old strategies and find new ways to capture this new market,” Dr. Harrigan wrote. For Mr. Dick-Read, though, the current strategy works well for Trellis Bay and other area businesses. He said that the “grassroots” contact that small businesses like his offer tourists are the type of “genuine experience” most tourists crave. He added that while he understands the rationale behind bringing in more visitors, he feels the expansion is the wrong project at the wrong time. “I do fully support all efforts to find solutions to increase and improve the quality of airlift in the BVI,” he said. Russell Harrigan, the chairman of the BVI Tourist Board and the owner of this newspaper, said that he understands the concern of residents who fear the territory’s culture and environment could be adversely affected by the expansion. “We’ve always tried to strike a balance in what we do. I think to the best that we can, we do,” he said. But he added that he feels that getting people to the VI is “the number one challenge we’re facing as a territory.” “I think as a territory we have always struggled with this issue of air access from day one,” he said. “In the earlier years, we were able to manoeuvre and get through it, but as the industry continues to grow we have to look at its longterm viability.”