Existing Home Sales % change from a year ago
NAR 2019Jan 2019Mar 2019May2019Jul 2019Sep 2019Nov 2020Jan 2020Mar 2020May2020Jul 2020Sep 2020Nov 2021Jan 2021Mar 2021May2021Jul 2021Sep 2021Nov 2022Jan 2022Mar 2022May2022Jul 2022Sep 2022Nov 2023Jan -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 Pre-Covid Covid Real Estate Boom Impact from High Mortgage Rates
Source:
2022
lowest
2014 Source: NAR 20002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022(est.) 3,000,000 3,500,000 4,000,000 4,500,000 5,000,000 5,500,000 6,000,000 6,500,000 7,000,000 7,500,000
Annual Existing Home Sales … Down 18% in
and
since
Newly Constructed Home Price vs. Existing Home Price
2000 - Jan2002 - Apr 2004 - Jul 2006 - Oct2009 - Jan2011 - Apr 2013 - Jul 2015 - Oct2018 - Jan2020 - Apr 2022 - Jul $0 $100,000 $200,000 $300,000 $400,000 $500,000 $600,000
Source: NAR and HUD/Census
Myrtle Beach Metro Median Home Price
2010-Q12010-Q32011-Q12011-Q32012-Q12012-Q32013-Q12013-Q32014-Q12014-Q32015-Q12015-Q32016-Q12016-Q32017-Q12017-Q32018-Q12018-Q32019-Q12019-Q32020-Q12020-Q32021-Q12021-Q32022-Q12022-Q3 $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 $350 $400 In Thousands dollars
Source: NAR
Price Appreciation in Myrtle Beach
(% change from a year ago)
2000-Q12000-Q42001-Q32002-Q22003-Q12003-Q42004-Q32005-Q22006-Q12006-Q42007-Q32008-Q22009-Q12009-Q42010-Q32011-Q22012-Q12012-Q42013-Q32014-Q22015-Q12015-Q42016-Q32017-Q22018-Q12018-Q42019-Q32020-Q22021-Q12021-Q42022-Q3 -15.0 -10.0 -5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0
Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency
Home Price Crashing Coming?
Source: NAR Analysis of BLS, MBA, NAR data
Key Variables Last Housing Cycle Current Housing Cycle Job Cuts (net of gains and losses) 8 million none Total Payroll Jobs (W-2 salary jobs) 130 million 153 million Total Jobs (Household survey) 138 million 158 million Subprime Loans Prevalent Virtually none 5-year cumulative to new home construction before crash 7.65 million 4.6 million Inventory on Market 3.8 to 4 million 1 to 1.2 million Mortgage Delinquency 10.1% 3.6% Homes in Foreclosure 4.6% 0.6%
Mortgage Delinquency 90+ days or in Foreclosure
2000-Q12001-Q12002-Q12003-Q12004-Q12005-Q12006-Q12007-Q12008-Q12009-Q12010-Q12011-Q12012-Q12013-Q12014-Q12015-Q12016-Q12017-Q12018-Q12019-Q12020-Q12021-Q12022-Q1 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Imploding Mortgages Covid Lock-down
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association
Distressed Home Sales
NAR
Source:
of
2010 - Jan 2011 - Jul 2013 - Jan 2014 - Jul 2016 - Jan 2017 - Jul 2019 - Jan 2020 - Jul 2022 - Jan 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
%
total sales
Inventory of Homes Rising from Super Tight Conditions
2000 - Jan 2002 - Oct 2005 - Jul 2008 - Apr 2011 - Jan 2013 - Oct 2016 - Jul 2019 - Apr 2022 - Jan 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,000 4,000,000 4,500,000
Source: NAR
Housing Asset and Mortgage Debt
Source: Federal Reserve2000-Q12001-Q12002-Q12003-Q12004-Q12005-Q12006-Q12007-Q12008-Q12009-Q12010-Q12011-Q12012-Q12013-Q12014-Q12015-Q12016-Q12017-Q12018-Q12019-Q12020-Q12021-Q12022-Q1 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 $ million
Long-term Single Family Housing Starts
Historical average of 1.02 million per year
Census/HUD 1960196419681972197619801984198819921996200020042008201220162020 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000 1,800,000 2,000,000
Source:
Long-term Multifamily Housing Starts
Historical average of 375,000 million per year
Source: Census/HUD 1960196419681972197619801984198819921996200020042008201220162020 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000
Apartment Rent Growth 2019 to 2023
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 %
Source: CBRE and NAR Forecast
Hopeful Signs on Mortgage Rates Peaked
at 7%
Source: Freddie Mac20-year high rates Sep1 ... Sep8...Sep15...Sep22 ... Sep29...Oct6...Oct13...Oct20...Oct27...Nov3...Nov10...Nov17...Nov24...Dec1 ... Dec8...Dec15...Dec22 ... Dec29...Jan5...Jan12 ... Jan19...Jan26 ... Feb2 ... Feb9...Feb16... 5.00 5.50 6.00 6.50 7.00 7.50
Long History: 10-year Treasury and 30-year Mortgage
2000 - Jan 2002 - Jul 2005 - Jan 2007 - Jul 2010 - Jan 2012 - Jul 2015 - Jan 2017 - Jul 2020 - Jan 2022 - Jul 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 9.00
Spread ... Average = 170 basis points
In Feb. 2023 = 240 basis points
170 basis points 2000 - Jan 2002 - Apr 2004 - Jul 2006 - Oct 2009 - Jan 2011 - Apr 2013 - Jul 2015 - Oct 2018 - Jan 2020 - Apr 2022 - Jul 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50
Payroll Jobs … record high
BLS 2020Jan 2020Mar 2020May2020Jul 2020Sep 2020Nov2021Jan 2021Mar 2021May2021Jul 2021Sep 2021Nov2022Jan 2022Mar 2022May2022Jul 2022Sep 2022Nov2023Jan 100000 110000 120000 130000 140000 150000 160000 In thousands
Source:
Out of the Labor Force (no longer counted as unemployed)
2019-Jan 2019Mar 2019May 2019-Jul 2019Sep 2019Nov 2020-Jan 2020Mar 2020May 2020-Jul 2020Sep 2020Nov 2021Jan 2021Mar 2021May 2021-Jul 2021Sep 2021Nov 2022Jan 2022Mar 2022May 2022-Jul 2022Sep 2022Nov 2023Jan 90,000 92,000 94,000 96,000 98,000 100,000 102,000 104,000 106,000 In thousands
Source:
BLS
Wage Gain (orange) vs. Consumer Price Gain (blue)
Note: January CPI data not yet released
Source: BLS
2019-Jan 2019Mar 2019May 2019-Jul 2019Sep 2019Nov 2020-Jan 2020Mar 2020May 2020-Jul 2020Sep 2020Nov 2021-Jan 2021Mar 2021May 2021-Jul 2021Sep 2021Nov 2022-Jan 2022Mar 2022May 2022-Jul 2022Sep 2022Nov 2023Jan 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 % change from a year ago
Payroll Job Additions from pre-Covid days (December 2022 vs. March 2020)
Source: NAR Analysis of BLS data
Payroll Jobs in Myrtle Beach
Source: BLS 2000 - Jan 2002 - Oct 2005 - Jul 2008 - Apr 2011 - Jan 2013 - Oct 2016 - Jul 2019 - Apr 2022 - Jan 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 In thousands
National Office Vacancy Rate
Source: CBRE and NAR Forecast2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 12.2 14.9 16.6 17.2 18.1 %
Federal Outlay (blue bar) and Tax Receipts (orange line)
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 7,000,000 8,000,000 $ million
Source: U.S. Treasury
Home Sales Forecast (new + existing)
Source: NAR
2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2021Q1 2021Q2 2021Q3 2021Q4 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 2023Q4 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 In thousands
adjusted annualized rate
Seasonally
Annual Forecast
Source: NARYear Unit Sales Home Price Dollar Volume 2019 0.0% +4.9% +5% 2020 +5.6% +9.1% +15% 2021 +8.5% +16.9% +25% 2022 -18% +10% -8% 2023 forecast -7% +0% -7% 2024 forecast +10% +5% +15%