02 climate change

THE CENTRE FOR ENTREPRENEURSHIP AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT (CEED) Kralja Nikole 27a/4, 81000 Podgorica, Montenegro Tel/fax: +382 20 620 611, 633 855 e-mail: ceed@t-com.me www.visit-ceed.org.me

CLIMATE CHANGE, ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND DEVELOPMENT

Authored By: M.Sc. Dragana Mileusnić M.Sc. Slavica Nikolić

April 2013

CLIMATE CHANGE, ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND DEVELOPMENT

Supported [in part] by a grant from the Open Society Foundations. The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the Open Society Institute.

Page 2

CLIMATE CHANGE, ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND DEVELOPMENT

Over the last decades, climate change and its consequences became a key factor of the future social and economic growth and development. It is no longer a dilemma whether climate change takes place or not, but to what extent its effects »are being felt«, with specific focus on their future impact assessment on overall growth and development potential. We are witnessing various climate change manifestations, such as frequent floods, droughts and fires; we are facing sea-level rise, melting of the ice and snow, increase in air and ocean temperature, changes in flora and fauna, etc. These manifestations influence aspects of economic, social and environmental system to great extent. This is one of the main reasons why climate change is subject of concern not only to meteorologists, climatologists, and environmental activists, but also to representatives of other sciences, primarily economists. Climate change is being largely related to human activities, dominantly industry and transport that heavily rely on fossil fuels and thus emit CO2, one of the key climate change »culprits«. Therefore, in order to mitigate climate change impacts, we need to address the cause, by reducing our use of conventional energy sources, coupled with energy efficiency measures. This article presents two research examples, including detailed explanation of methodology, results, conclusions and recommendations.

Introduction Global air temperature increase is one of the most critical problems that the 21st century society faces. In the last 100 years, average global air temperature recorded increase by 0.7°C, in Europe by 1°C. Climate change and the global warming trend are caused by the accumulation of greenhouse gasses (GHG) in the atmosphere. Carbon-dioxide (CO2)

Page 3

contributes the most to this effect, and is being emitted to the atmosphere due to fossil fuels combustion, as a result of human activity and industrial processes. Comparing to the pre-industrial level, the concentration of greenhouse gases increased by about 55%, while within this month, May of 2013, it reached a record high concentration value of 400 ppm. There is also a predicted tendency that its level will double until 2050. State-of -the art climate models estimate that the doubled concentration of CO2 would cause the increase of global temperature in 1.5°C to 5°C interval, in Europe even from 2.0 – 6.3°C. Further demographic and economic growth, especially in developing countries, is expected to contribute to the further increase of greenhouse gases, augmenting the risk of irreversible consequences of climate change.

The greatest challenge in mitigating climate change is to limit greenhouse gases emission in the future. Developing countries strongly object this, because due to the emissions that the most developed countries caused, they need to adjust their economy, largely based on carbon intensive technologies.

Carbon intensity of these technologies comes from the exploitation of conventional sources of energy (oil, gas, coal) which are dominantly exploited in production of energy for industrial processes, in transport and other anthropogenic activities. This is why the need for their gradual substitution is being emphasised, with the aim of climate change mitigation.

However, the reorientation to renewable energy sources and greater application of clean technologies require significant financial resources that may diminish the chances for further growth and prosperity in developing countries. Analysis shows that the substitution of fuels that create greenhouse gases could cost 1% to 3% of the global GDP.

CLIMATE CHANGE, ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND DEVELOPMENT

Therefore, the decarbonisation process is closely linked to the implementation of energy efficiency measures, which enable significant reductions in energy consumption, and hence lead to the overall cost reduction.

Energy efficiency involves a wide range of measures. It can be a small change in consumer habits and behaviour, such as replacing standard light bulbs with energysaving ones, purchasing home appliances of the most energy-efficient type A, home insulation, to greater investing in building design, innovative technology processes and more.

Methodology Due to the increasing attention dedicated to these issues and the fact that Montenegro has been an ecological state for twenty years, CEED has conducted a series of related studies in the past. Hereby, we present key results of the two: • Knowledge, Attitudes and Practices survey on children and climate change1 and • Survey on public opinion on level of awareness of energy efficiency2.

Objectives of the research were to: 1.

Gain a detailed insight into the current level of knowledge, attitudes and behaviour in relation to climate change and energy efficiency; 2.

Provide basic information relevant to programming, monitoring activities and progress assessment in this area in the coming years, and 3.

Create the impetus for further research in these areas.

Knowledge, Attitudes and Practices survey on children and climate change was implemented for the needs of UNICEF and UNDP in Montenegro. With the purpose of getting insight into the level of children’s awareness of the given topics, the quantitative research was carried out (‘faceto-face’ interviews), which included pupils in primary and secondary schools. The starting basis for creation of representative sample3 were data from the Ministry of Education and Sports. The survey was conducted in Berane, Bijelo Polje and Pljevlja (Northern region), Nikšić and Podgorica (Central region) and Bar, Ulcinj and Herceg Novi (Southern region) on the sample of 666 boy/girl pupils.

In 25 primary schools, 349 boy/girl pupils of seventh, eighth and ninth grade of the reformed educational system were interviewed, while in 21 secondary schools 317 boy/girl pupils were interwiewed, attending first, second and third grade.

CEED conducted Public opinion poll on energy efficiency for the purposes of German Society for International Cooperation (GiZ) and the Ministry of Economy. The quantitative survey (‘face-to-face’ interviews) with 450 household representatives has been carried out in nine Montenegrin towns (Berane, Bijelo Polje and Pljevlja (northern region), Nikšić and Podgorica (central region) and Bar, Budva, Ulcinj and Herceg Novi (southern region). As starting basis for creation of representative sample MONSTAT’s data on the number of adult citizens were used. One of the conditions to participate in the survey was that respondents lived in their own house or apartment. The first survey was conducted in November 2008, and the total of nine polls was implemented so far.

1

Knowledge, Attitudes and Practices survey on children and climate change, CEED, 2011.

Survey on public opinion on level of awareness of energy efficiency, CEED, 2013.

3 Representativeness of the sample implies that selected units of observed group or population have all characteristics of the overall population.

2

Page 4

CLIMATE CHANGE, ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND DEVELOPMENT

The questionnaire containing both open and close-type questions was created using Likert assessment scale. Likert scale is consisted of a series of statements expressing positive or negative attitude towards certain notion.

The respondent, on odd scale, usually from 1 to 5, expresses the level of satisfaction or dissatisfaction with a specific statement.

Repondents were guaranteed anonymity, which contributed to obtaining as honest and accurate answers as possible. Data processing with necessary logical controls was performed in SPSS software (Statistical package for social sciences used for data processing and analysis).

According to survey results, boy/girl pupils pointed out global warming as a serious problem we all face with. According to them, on a scale of 1-a very serious problem to 5-not a problem at all, global warming presents a very serious problem for the World and Europe (average rate 1.70 and 1.94 respectively). For Montenegro, global warming is perceived as a less serious problem with average rates 2.30 and 2.23.

Graph 2. Average rates of ‘seriousness’ of global warming

2,30 2,23

2,16 2,15 1,94 1,89

Key results

1,70 1,49

Results of the Knowledge, Attitudes and Practices survey on children and climate change demonstrate that there is certain, but not sufficient level of knowledge on climate change. Primary and secondary school pupils thought they are wellacquainted with the term of global warming, which they define as ‘the increase of the temperature on the Earth’. However, every third child could not acurately explain the term, leading to a conclusion that the actual level of knowledge about global warming is less than the self-assessed one.

Graph 1. Level of awarness of the term of global warming 54,2 49,8 34,7 25,8 20,1 15,5

Quite familiar Primary

Page 5

Familiar

I have never heard of it Secondary

Montenegro

Region Primary

Europe

World

Secondary

Awareness about the positive and negative impacts of certain human activities or behavior on the environment is largely present at primary and secondary schools pupils. Positive impact on the environment has afforestation (86.5% and 89.5%), recycling (84.8% and 81.7%) and cycling (76.2% and 72.5%). Negative impact is perceived as fossil fuel-powered car driving (91.9% and 90.8%), use of deodorant (77.9% and 83.9%) and plane rides (73.0% and 80.1%).

CLIMATE CHANGE, ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND DEVELOPMENT

Table 1. Impact assessment of human actions/behavior on the environment (%) Primary schools Positive Waste Recycling

84,8

Electricity consumption Riding a bicycle

Negative

Secondary schools Positive

Negative

81,7 68,5

76,2

58,4 72,5

Use of deodorant

77,9

83,9

Driving fossil fuel-powered cars

91,9

90,8

Construction of residential, business facilities, roads

52,2

54,6

Airplane ride

73,0

80,1

Afforestation

86,5

This attitude is largely influenced by the fact that 59.3% of primary and 47.9% of secondary school pupils applied at home and / or school some of the measures aiming to preserve and protect the environment. In majority of cases these measures included tossing garbage in places provided for that purpose, recycling, electricity and water saving.

Implementation of these measures home was mostly present in the Northern and to less extent in Central and Southern region.

A significant percent of the interviewed (83.1% and 81.4%) expressed readiness to point to their friends and family how they can contribute to the reduction of greenhouse gas emmissions into the atmosphere. Level of awarenes of the global warming influenced the readiness of responddents to point the ways in which they can contribute to the reduction of greenhouse gas emmissions. Namely, those who were ‘quite familiar’ and ‘familiar’ showed gretaer readiness than respondents who haven’t heard of this term.

89,5

According to results, it can be concluded that the interviewed boy/girl pupils, in everyday life, tend to behave in an environmentally-friendly manner with positive effect on the environment. The most common activities include saving electricity by turning off lights in rooms where no one was staying, removing chargers from sockets upon completion of computer/cell phone battery charging etc. Activity that could significantly contribute to reduction of greenhouse gas emissions were selection of waste and conserving water, which children did not apply on a daily basis.

Page 6

CLIMATE CHANGE, ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND DEVELOPMENT

Table 2. Frequency of the following activities/behaviour Primary schools

Secondary schools

Often

Never

Often

Photocoping of books, notebooks, school materials, emails

23,8

22,6

43,2

Computer/TV/DVD stays in stand by mode

35,2

29,5

48,3

You buy water, juices in plastic bottles / glasses

76,2

After charging the battery for computer, cell phone charger stays in the plug box

34,4

Never

22,7

75,4 44,4

47,6

29,3

Separation of waste

55,3

22,1

52,4

Use of public transport

62,5

33,4

47,9

Using a taxi/car

41,5

38,5

29,7

37,0

42,6

30,6

Leaving the tap on whilst brushing the teeth

33,8

Turning off the lights in premises that no one uses

61,6

64,0

Boy/girl pupils showed high level of readiness to undertake some measures aimed at environmental protection or harmful gas emmission reduction in the future. They said that they were willing to save energy (82.5% and 79.7%), use public transport / bike / walk (79,4% and 74,8%). Somewhat lower level of readiness can be noticed in purchasing the products with environmental label and using plastic containers. Children from urban settlemnts are more likely to undertake these activities in comparison with to their peers from rural settlements.

Children showed a great interest in learning and discussion on the topic of global warming and 79.4% of primary school pupils and 69.3% of secondary school pupils had the opinion that it was a rather interesting topic. As an explanation for the mentioned attitude, they point out that the topic was an interesting one which is reflected in the ability to acquire additional knowledge on global warming, to preserve nature and the ozone layer, and to raise awareness of people about the bad effects of global warming on people’s health.

Graph 3. Readiness to undertake some of the measures aimed at environmnt protection (% of positive answers)

Based on the obtained results, it can be concluded that boy/girl pupils of primary and secondary schools have a certain degree of knowledge about global warming or climate change and their impacts. However, the actual level of knowledge is lower than selfestimated one. Since this is a phenomenon that has, and it is very likely to have a more pronounced impact on almost all aspects of human activity, it the following is needed:

77,4

Reduce car usage

58,7 82,5

Saving electricity

79,7 72,2

Waste separation

76,7 71,3

Rational usage of water

72,5 67,6

Reducing usage of plastic containers

62,3 64,2

Buying products with environmental label

61,6 79,4

Using public transport/ bicycle/walk

74,8 66,5

Using recycled paper Primary

Page 7

63,3

Secondary

•

Work on further education and awareness of boy/girl pupils, with

CLIMATE CHANGE, ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND DEVELOPMENT

•

•

special emphasis on children from rural settlements, that is, the entire population. The problem can be solved effectively only if it is understood properly. Taking the various long-term educational campaigns and programs would result in the desired changes, from the socially acceptable attitudes to socially acceptable behaviour and real actions.

The introduction of subjects within the existing subjects with more attention to this topic, by organizing lectures, workshops and seminars on global warming, climate changes, renewable energy and energy efficiency will inform boy/girl pupils and allow them to acquire additional knowledge.

Special attention is paid to organizing mentioned actions areas through direct involvement of boy/girl students based on empirical techniques and practical examples which will enable them to develop awareness of the importance and effects that could be achieved by their application.

At the individual level it is necessary to take appropriate measures that will result in a reduction of demand for products that pollute the environment.

First of all, this is referred to raising awareness and informing boy/girl pupils on how their everyday choices/ behaviour in consumption influence the occurrence of global warming/ climate change. By purchasing p ro d uc ts and s e rv i c es wi th environmental label, children, as consumers, can contribute to further promotion of ecological behaviour.

Public opinion poll on energy efficiency was initially conducted in November 2008. Since then, it shows a steady increase in citizens' awareness of the concept and measures that contribute to energy conservation. The latest survey (completed in February 2013) indicated that nearly three quarters of respondents (70.2%) knew and assume they knew what energy efficiency implied. These respondents defined this term as saving (26.9%) and rational energy consumption (61.7%), which indicates that they perceive the meaning of this term in correct way.

Page 8

CLIMATE CHANGE, ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND DEVELOPMENT

Graph 4.

Energy efficiency awareness and definition

Rational consumption 61,7%

No 29,8%

Saving energy 26,9%

Yes 70,2%

Other 2,2% Implementation of ee measures 1,3%

Every fourth respondent (22.8%) stated he/ she did not apply any of energy efficiency measures in their household in the previous year. This brings to conclusion that interviewees decided to apply only energy efficiency measures which did not require significant financial resources (for example energy-saving light bulbs) or not to not apply any of mentioned measures at all (due to high credit indebtedness of citizens, lack of information, etc.).

Energy Efficiency 6,3% The use of alternative sources 1,6%

stated they would not be willing to apply any of mentioned measures. This means that overall they do recognize importance and effects they might achieve by applying energy efficiency measures in the household.

Graph 6. Willingness to apply energy efficiency measures in the household Use of saving light bulbs

11,5

Devices of energy type A

13,9

Household isolation

26,7

Windows with low-e

Graph 5. Energy efficiency measures applied in the household Use of saving light bulbs

42,4

Devices of energy type A

9,1

Household isolation Windows with low-e Thermostat valve

0,5 0,2

Nothing of the above

2,2 0,3 22,8

Results also showed that in the future respondents would most often opt for house/ building insulation (26.7%), devices of energy type A (13.9%) and low-emission glass windows (13.7%). In 12.7% of cases citizens

Page 9

1,7

Solar collector and photo-volt cells Air condition with inverter

Nothing of the above

0,0

Solar collector and photo-volt. cells

Heating pump

1,4

11,9 4,2 2,3 12,7

10,1

Condensate boiler

Air condition with inverter

Thermostat valve Condensate boiler

Heating pump

12,4

13,7

As the crucial reason for not planning to apply some of energy efficiency measures, the interviewees stated lack of financial resources (74.3%) and lack of information (12.5%).

CLIMATE CHANGE, ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND DEVELOPMENT

Table 3. Reasons for not applying energy efficiency measures % Lack of financial resources

74,3

Lack of information

12,5

Lack of information about relevant contractors

2,1

Inability to reach an agreement with other tenants in common residential building

2,5

Inaccessibility of adequate products

5,1

Other

3,5

•

In order to increase energy efficiency, Ministry of Economy launched the initiative for the use of sustainable energy sources, the Montesol project – allowing interest-free loans for household solar collectors.

However, the project has not been successfully put in practice so far, because people are not interested in this type of loan due to lack of funds. In 12.5% of cases respondents thought of getting a loan to apply some energy efficiency measures in the household. They most often heard of credit lines for solar collectors and panels offered by Montenegrin banks (Erste, Ckb, Prva bank and NLB bank).

In accordance with the main conclusions from the survey on public opinion poll on energy efficiency the following recommendations are created: • Work on further citizens’ informing and awareness of energy efficiency.

• Get public familiarised with energy efficiency measures that can be applied in the household and point to the possibilities that each of them offers. In this way awareness of possibilities of achieving energy 4

•

efficiency would be enhanced as well as the importance of transparent energy resource management in the household.

Promote energy efficiency measures in a way to calculate index, which will measure economic and energy effects of measures applied in the household.

Available information on possible energy saving and their financial viability would influence the change of citizens’ awareness.

Place information on existence of energy efficiency info line and info centre/office (via TV, newspapers, printed materials) in order to make citizens more informed about their activities and services they offer.

Conclusions Strong impact of climate change on the overall economic and social activities have already been observed. There is evidence that this effect will become much stronger and more pronounced in the future, with a very negative impact. Thus, in the 21st century, the main threat to the progress and future growth of the society may be climate change. Our ability to adequately respond to the challenge will determine our opportunities for further growth and development, ie. overall progress.

Emissions of greenhouse gases continue to rise, and almost 80% of world energy comes from oil, gas and coal, creating a high degree of fossil fuel dependence. Governments around the world spend hundreds of billions of dollars to subsidise the fossil fuel industry.

According to some accounts, the last drop of oil will be spent on October 27, 20474. Until

http://www.energy.eu

Page 10

CLIMATE CHANGE, ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND DEVELOPMENT

then, it is necessary to develop new, low carbon technologies, whose application will enable the achievement of economic, environmental and energy efficiency.

Therefore, it seems reasonable to assume that the rapid development and application of these technologies is essential to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change.

It is important to note that climate change and reducing energy consumption will: • Influence our daily activities requiring changes in the way we think and behave, • Aim to achieve economic, environmental, and energy efficiency; • In both, social and natural sciences an entirely new branch has been developed, so today we have the green / clean industry, economy, agriculture, tourism, products, jobs and so on.

• Due to the uncertainty of the total oil reserves and the desire to reduce the heavy dependence on this source, an increasing number of countries invest in renewable energy. In the future, strategic advantage will have the

•

•

countries able to produce and use energy from these sources; The United Nations estimate that in the next twenty years, only investments in clean energy will exceed $ 350 billion. One of the countries that invest the most in green technology is China. In Germany, which is also a leader when it comes to clean energy, opened more than 280,000 jobs due to the trend of green economy and the use of sustainable energy sources. Profit generated by the green economy is measured in millions of dollars and records an upward trend.

The global character and nature of the climate change require a joint and coordinated action, and only in this way it is possible to adequately and with minimal costs and risks, meet the challenges of climate change.

About CEED The Centre for Entrepreneurship and Economic Development, CEED, is the first economic think-tank established in Montenegro to support entrepreneurship and economic development. The mission of the CEED is—through its programs, projects, and advocacy activities - to promote and practically implement in Montenegro the ideas of a free market, entrepreneurship, and private ownership in an open, socially responsible and democratic society with the rule of law. In June 2011, CEED was accredited as science-research institution of the Ministry of the Science. For more information please visit: www.visit-ceed.org.me.

Page 11