CemWeek Magazine: September/October 2017

GLOBAL CEMENT INDUSTRY. KNOWLEDGE.

ISSUE 40

SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER

LEADERS Q&A

Juan Esteban Calle

CEO of Cementos Argos

oil well cement

A market rising from the underground

CW Research

Global Cement Volume Forecast Report 2H2017 News

•

Analysis

•

Market Coverage

•

Interviews

•

People Moves

Pioneers of the PAST – Masters of the FUTURE FIRST

hydropneumatic spring system

FIRST

redundancy concept with 8-motor mill drives

FIRST

modular mill design

EVOLVE THE FUTURE

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EDITOR’S NOTE Letter from the publisher and editor

The CemWeek Magazine is published by the CW Group LLC PO Box 5263 Greenwich, CT 06831, USA T: +1-702-866-9474 www.cwgrp.com www.cemweek.com

STAFFBOX An outlook of the cement industry in 2H2017 For the 40th issue of CemWeek Magazine, we present a publication different from the usual.

Given the evolution of the market and the new digital age, we decided to invest in a revitalization, whilst preserving the standards of consistency and quality that CemWeek’s readers have been accustomed to.

Thus, in this issue, we cover key trends in the cement industry, with a special focus on the second half of 2017. CW Research has updated its 2H2017 forecasts on consumption and capacity volumes for the global cement market, along with selected regions.

This 40th issue also features an indispensable interview with Juan Esteban Calle, CEO of Cement Argos. Our conversation with the CEO of the leading cement producer in Colombia and the fifth largest in Latin America has resulted in a debate on the most relevant issues for the industry. Main economic challenges, new markets, new plants, as well as the company’s sustainability practices were some of the issues that guided this interview.

ROBERT MADEIRA CEMWEEK PUBLISHER HEAD OF CW GROUP RESEARCH

Luísa Azevedo Editorial Coordinator

LIVIU DINU Ana Margarida Meira ADVERTISING

Raluca Cercel Tea Vukicevic Sara Ruas Paulo Cruz Filipe Gouveia Margarida Cunha

CONTRIBUTING WRITERS & RESEARCHERS

Diogo Vieira SANTOSH SHETTYE DESIGNER

Additional focus is provided to oil well cement, a specialty niche cement product whose market is projected to exceed five million tons by the end of 2017. CW Research analyzes the evolution of the commodity as the oil industry continues to struggle with low crude prices.

Whether we are in a turbulent moment for the industry or in a calm and stable time, we always feel the urge to provide relevant news about its main indicators, such as the latest facts and figures on cement volumes, energy prices, and relevant people in the business, regional developments, equipment, and construction projects. This issue followed this urge and became an essential collection of visions, detailed outlooks and industry insights.

To subscribe or advertise, please contact us at T: +1-702-866-9474 E: sales@cwgrp.com ©2017 CemWeek LLC. All rights reserved. The contents of this publication may not be reproduced by any means, in whole or in part, without the prior written consent of the publisher. ©Photo cover: Votorantim Cimentos Any submissions or contributions from readers shall be subject to and governed by CemWeek’s Terms and Conditions, which are available upon request.

The publishers regret that they cannot accept liability for error or omissions contained in this publication, however caused. The opinions and views contained in this publication are not necessarily those of the publishers. Readers are advised to seek specialist advice before acting on information contained in this publication which is provided for general use and may not be appropriate for the reader’s particular circumstances.

ROBERT MADEIRA

CEMWEEK PUBLISHER HEAD OF CW GROUP RESEARCH

Luísa Azevedo

Editorial Coordinator

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CW Analytics

contents FEATURES 4 Leaders Q&A: Juan Esteban Calle

In an exclusive interview with CemWeek Magazine, Juan Esteban Calle, CEO of Cementos Argos, discussed the main drivers behind the company’s rapid overseas growth.

10 CW Research: Oil well cement demand set to increase in 2017-2022 As the oil industry continues to struggle with low crude prices, oil well cement will continue to register muted growth 18 CW Research: Global Cement Volume Forecast Report 2H 2017

As the economy continues to display signs of improvement, CW Research updates their 2H2017 forecasts on consumption and capacity volumes for the global and selected regional cement markets 24 The impact of the cement industry in the Paris agreement

How can the cement sector, an industry that emits large quantities of CO2 into the atmosphere each year, become more sustainable and contribute to the Paris Climate Agreement goals?

4 18

DEPARTMENTS 1 EdiTor's letter An outlook of the cement industry in 2H2017 3 numbers in brief In spite of unfavorable Easter and Ramadan timing, major cement companies largely maintained EBITDA margins above 20%

54 cw group meeting agenda CW Group’s upcoming events

2

38 people People on the move 52 Equipment Equipment and notable projects

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55 BUZZ Top 20 CemWeek and BMWeek stories

numbers in brief

Stable second quarter of the year for major cement manufacturers In spite of unfavorable Easter and Ramadan timing, major cement companies largely maintained EBITDA margins above 20%.

On a USD basis, most of the large cement manufacturing groups registered a marginal decrease in revenue when comparing second quarter 2017 results with the results of the second quarter of 2016.

LafargeHolcim registered positive results in US, Nigeria, Mexico, India, and in some European markets, yet challenges in Malaysia, Philippines and Indonesia prevented revenue from substantively increasing above USD 7 billion.

CHART: 2Q2017 v. 2Q2016 Revenue (mn USD) 2Q2016

8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 LafargeHolcim

2Q2017

HeidelbergCement

Cemex

Votorantim

Source: CW Group, Cement companies’ quarterly reports and presentations

Cemex’s target for the quarter had been debt reduction, and the company succeeded in reaching its goal and still maintain revenue figures afloat. Votorantim Cimentos revenue fell 7.5 percent year-on-year, dragged by losses in its Brazilian operations, and marginally supported by results from operations from Latin America (excluding Brazil).

HeidelbergCement recorded a 0.6 percent year-on-year increase in revenues in EUR, yet the depreciation of the USD against a dollar translated into a 2.1 percent growth in revenue in USD terms. In spite of the increase, the company announced that the timing of the 2017 Easter and Ramadan did not benefit the company’s performance.

CHART: 2Q2017 v. 2Q2016 Revenue (mn USD) Votorantim

Cemex

LafargeHolcim

HeidelbergCement

2Q2017

2Q2016 5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Source: CW Group, Cement companies’ quarterly reports and presentations

Cemex reports a 8 percent year-on-year decline in Europe due to lower contributions from operations in all regions, with the exception of Mexico and the US. For the company, cost of sales as a percentage of net sales increased by 1.5 percent points, reflecting high energy costs, and increase in raw materials’ cost. EBITDA margins in Mexico and US were favored by price increases. www.cemweek.com

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Leaders Q&A

C e m e nt o s Ar g o s Chief executive officer

J u a n Esteban Calle In an exclusive interview with CemWeek Magazine, Juan Esteban Calle, CEO of Cementos Argos, discussed the main drivers behind the company’s rapid overseas growth.

Argos’ main operations, sustainability issues and expectations for the future of the business and the industry were also addressed.

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Leaders Q&A

C

ementos

Argos

has

expanded swiftly over the last decade from a local Colombian company to a

multinational cement and concrete and player. CemWeek Magazine spoke to the CEO, Juan Esteban Calle, about the company’s rise and expectations.

Q: Cementos Argos has expanded rapidly over the last decade, from a local Colombian company to a multinational cement and concrete player. What were the main drivers for Argos’s rapid overseas growth?

A: Our expansion has been driven by our conviction to participate in the construction of a better world and a more equitable society. Cementos Argos has the fundamental values, discipline, experience and financial flexibility not only to execute strategic acquisitions in our region of influence, but to integrate them to our logistic network, increasing the efficiency and competitiveness of our assets and impacting communities in a positive way.

Similarly, we have a know-how that allows us to grow organically in a sustainable way.

to enrich Argos’s course of action as a multinational company and allows us to strengthen our presence in the Americas.

I

n

We e x pe c t t o s t r e n g t h e n ou r p os i t i on i n t h e lar g e s t e c on om y of t h e US after the merge of its regional cement companies in Colombia and decades of exporting to different countries, Argos started an internationalization strategy defining the Americas as its target geography and looking to generate synergies through the interconnection of its assets.

Q: At the end of 2016, Cementos Argos formally took over a large production plant in Martinsburg, West Virginia.

With this acquisition, the company is now one of the leading suppliers of cement and concrete in the United States. What are your expectations for the American market?

We promote the transfer of best practices

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2005,

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A: The acquisition of the cement plant in Martinsburg, West Virginia, was an important milestone that not only allowed us to enhance our logistical network, but to expand our presence in the United States from nine to thirteen states. In addition, this acquisition consolidates Argos’s position as the biggest investing Colombian company in the United States.

The company is the fourth and second largest cement and ready-mix producer in the USA, respectively.

We expect to strengthen our position in the largest economy of the world, whose potential we are fully convinced of, a market that continues on its path to recovery and normalization, driven mainly by infrastructure and housing needs. Through this, we have managed to become an important player, participating as suppliers in projects such as: The North Tower of the Methodist Hospital in Houston, the Falcons’ Stadium, the Coca-Cola administrative headquarters in Atlanta, and the Finding Nemo attraction at Disney World, Orlando, for which we supplied our signature blue concrete.

Q: Cementos Argos has been present in Honduras since 2013.

At the beginning of 2017, it consolidated its presence with the inauguration of a cement grinding plant at San Lorenzo. How did operations in Honduras come about and how do they fit in with the company’s strategy?

A: Honduras is one of the most important locations for us in the Caribbean and Central America Region, not only because the potential of its market, but its privileged location that allows us to generate synergies with our existing assets.

In this sense, the implementation of the San Lorenzo mill reaffirms our confidence in the development of the country and strengthens our position as a strategic ally in the execution of important projects, such as the Honduras 20/20 development plan, which aims to create a logistical corridor by connecting three regions with great economic influence in the country, thus bringing progress.

Q: Cementos Argos was included in the Dow Jones Sustainability Index (DJSI) as the most sustainable cement company in the world, after obtaining the best score in the industry. What were the major factors that contributed to this distinction?

A: The leadership in this rating reflects our business model. We have the conviction that through corporate governance, safety, sustainability and innovation we generate value for our stakeholders.

Sustainability is an integral part of the deployment of our strategy and our decision-making process. Also, in this industry, sustainability is fully related to the efficiency of our operations and helps us to be more profitable in the long term. Therefore, we are absolutely committed to lowering the environmental footprint of our industry and challenging our employees to develop eco-friendly products and solutions to improve the quality of life of millions of people through innovative solutions.

Over the last year, for example, we increased the substitution of fossil fuels with alternative fuels, achieving a total

Su s t ai n abi li t y i s a n i n t e g r al par t of the d e ploy m e n t of ou r s t r at e g y

substitution of 6.8%; we improved the usage of recycled water by 85% in the cement process, by 30% in concrete and by 86% in aggregates. Moreover, we have decreased our net CO2 emissions by 29% (compared to 2006).

Q: Many companies in the cement industry have invested in technology, not only to improve their factories and equipment, but also the quality of production.

What is Cementos Argos’ main commitment to innovation?

A: Through innovation we commit to: reducing our environmental footprint, improving the experience of our clients, expanding our portfolio of services and products, and improving the efficiency of our operations.

We focus in the following to achieve our corporate and sustainability goals through innovation:

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Leaders Q&A •

Improvements to processes in an effort to reduce the company's environmental footprint.

Decreasing the consumption of non-renewable resources and reducing CO2 emissions.

•

Social innovation, developing initiatives and products that meet housing and infrastructure needs of the most vulnerable communities.

We a r e abso l utel y committed to l o wer i ng th e en v i r o nm enta l fo o tprin t o f o ur in du str y •

•

•

•

•

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Q: What is your vision of the cement industry in the countries where Cementos Argos has a presence and what does the future hold?

A: The cement industry is very dynamic. We are optimistic about the future of the geographies where we operate. In the United States there is a great need for the renovation and construction of infrastructure, the same as in Colombia, where Fourth Generation (4G) projects are already being carried out. In addition, Honduras and Panama stand out in the Caribbean and Central America Region for their relevance and infrastructure plans.

We are fully convinced that in the future Argos will continue its expansion and Encouraging the use of alternative consolidation process, with a focus resources (energy and raw materials) on generating value not only for our in order to have a more sustainable shareholders but for our clients and production cycle, making efficient society as well, looking forward to being use of internal and external waste. more sustainable, transforming lives and contributing to the progress of all Continuous development of the countries and territories where value-added products in both our we operate. In addition, we will cement and concrete businesses to continue to accelerate our enable sustainable construction. transformational program known as BEST Open innovation is fostered by way of (Building Efficiency clients, suppliers, state and academia and Sustainability for to identify opportunities for co- Tomorrow), which creation and contribute to the joint aims to improve our development of our stakeholders. c o mp e t i t i v e n e s s and make our faster Benchmarking of good practices and company innovative initiatives to add value​​ and more clientto all our customers and operations. focused.

Promoting innovative initiatives among our employees such as the sustainable mobility system and carpooling.

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Consolidated Cement Volume 2nd Quarter 2017 (M Tons) 4400

4169

4200

4000 3800 3600

3.536

3400 3200

2016

2017

Source: 2nd Quarter Financial Results Report, Cementos Argos

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Insight Analysis

CW RESEARCH

Oil Well Cement Demand set to increase in

2017-2022

As the oil industry continues to struggle with low crude prices, oil well cement will continue to register muted growth. Shale oil exploration represents an opportunity to the sector by increasing the overall depth of oil rigs.

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Insight Analysis W Research presents an overview of the oil well cement market, including historical and forecast data on production, distribution, pricing and demand. Having a much narrower market compared to regular Portland cement, oil well cement has its own drivers and challengers that require analysis.

When oil prices tanked below USD 40 per barrel in 2015, the rig count, and consequently, demand for oil well cement, dropped significantly. Slow growth in developed economies and a production glut in the global oil market are responsible for maintaining prices low for now.

Shale wells typically use between two and three times more oil well cement than regular rigs

The oil well cement market is linked to the dynamics of supply and demand in the international oil market, but also to the different methods of exploration used in that industry, be it offshore, onshore, or share wells.

Consumption drivers Given that mature oil wells follow a very well determined rate of decay, the oil well cement market enjoys a baseline demand. Apart from that, oil well cement faces a number of challenges in the international market, and benefits from a set of opportunities, both associated with the oil industry.

The global rig count is closely correlated to the price of crude oil, with few exceptions.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is trying to stabilize prices by imposing limits to production, but their efforts may be rendered fruitless by oil-producing countries outside of the organization that opt for increasing their output instead of following OPEC’s line. Those include the United States, with its growing shale oil industry.

Some major opportunities for oil well cement producers include new applications, such as geothermal wells and new offshore ventures in the Artic and South China seas. Also, new reserves are being found at lower depths.

Each operator’s demand for oil well cement is linked to the drilling method that one is

Oil Well Cement Consumption

OWC

2017E

2018E

Extender

2019E

Source: CW Research

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2020E

2021E

2022E

using, given the depth differences between each method. As a rule of thumb, shale exploration will go to around 5,000 meters deep, while offshore and onshore drilling stay at 3,000 and 1,500 meters, respectively.

associated with a market that becomes too dependent on the United States’ shale oil industry, since several states have already banned the practice due to environmental concerns.

other regions, including eighteen in the Middle East and North Africa, seventeen in Central and South America, sixteen in North America, thirteen in Europe, and twelve in the CIS countries.

Since 2005, shale exploration in the United States has been responsible for an increase in the world’s overall and average depth reached by rigs, exception being 2009 – right after the global crisis – and 2014-15, when oil prices plunged. Between 2015 and 2016, the total drilled distance increase by two percent, from 230 million to 234 million meters.

The global rig count is closely correlated with the price of crude

For 2017, CW Research expects a drop of 27 percent year-on-year in the global drilled distance, to 170 million. In the United States, a slowdown in shale exploration will bring drilled distance to 43 percent less than in the previous year.

Further delays may be expected after Hurricane Harvey left a trail of destruction in the state of Texas.

Going forward, shale drilling is expected to take approximately 30 percent of the global drilled distance by 2020, while the average drilled depth per rig in North America is set to grow by 200 meters until 2022.

In terms of companies, oil well cement capacity is concentrated around major players like LafargeHolcim, Cemex, Italcementi, Heidelberg, and Dyckerhoff.

Due to the irregularity of oil well cement demand and to the additional costs of its production, it is difficult to maintain a kiln solely dedicated to its manufacturing.

Producers end up alternating between the production of oil well and ordinary Portland cement.

Shale wells typically use between two and three times more oil well cement than regular rigs, representing huge potential to the industry. There are, however, risks

Consumption and Demand Across the world, there are currently 120 oil well cement units certified by the American Petroleum Association (APA).

Forty-two of them are located in the Asia Pacific region, with the remaining being more or less well distributed among the

Concerning demand, worldwide consumption of oil well cement is expected to decline by 23 percent in 2017, staying at 5.5 million tons, down from 7.2 million tons in 2016 and already far from a peak demand of 7.5 million tons reached in 2013.

As for regional distribution of consumption, North America has a disproportional weight in the market: in 2013, it consumed 3.5 million tons of oil well cement, or 47 percent of global demand.

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Insight Analysis Oil Well Cement Prices 2007-2017E

2007

Mexico

2010

Brazil

2013

US

China

2015

Indonesia

2017E

Saudi Arabia

Russia

Source: CW Research

Middle East and North Africa, a major producer of crude oil, consume less oil well cement than what could be expected, staying in the 200,000-250,000 tons range.

That happens because oil wells in the region are more mature and dispersed. However, in 2017, consumption in the region actually outperformed that of the global market, having reached 400,000 tons.

Between 2017 and 2022, CW Research projects oil well cement consumption to increase at a compound annual growth

Worldwide consumption of oil well cement is expected to decline by 23 percent in 2017

rate of 1.3 percent, eventually reaching 5.9 million tons by 2020. At the same time, cementitious extender, a competitor of oil well cement within the oil industry, will likely improve its market share from 17 percent in 2017 to 20 percent in 2022.

Price Sales of oil well cement used to be traded at a premium compared to ordinary Portland cement. At some point, oil well cement was being sold for five to eight times the price of ordinary Portland cement. However, that difference has been shrinking and the premium is now in the range of one to 1.5 times the price of ordinary Portland cement.

In Mexico, the premium has almost disappeared and is now in the one to 1.1 times range. Prices are now far from their peak in 2012-13, following a fast drop in Brazil, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, and the United States.

In the US market, CW Research estimates prices to fall to USD 90-95 per ton this year.

Producers of oil well cement face a myriad of additional costs compared to other types of cement. The high-pressure environments in which oil well cement is

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About the report CW Research’s World Oil Well Cement Market Forecast 2022 provides an in-depth forecast analysis of the worldwide oil well cement market, including regional market shares, demand, imports, exports and types of oil well cement used by geography, as well as price trends.

The report highlights detailed and specific demand by main types of oil well cement for key countries, and trends in the oil well segment. The World Oil Well Cement Market Forecast 2022 presents the role of extenders and onshore, offshore, and shale well counts with trajectory, depth, and well type to help ascertain oil well cement usage.

Bringing together CW Group’s principal research team, this business intelligence tool addresses important market dynamics about API-certified oil well cements, including a global capacity overview (market and major producers), regional market shares, demand, imports, exports, the types of oil well cement, and pricing trends.

The scope of the report is further extended to include key operations of the main oil well cement producers, such as Dyckerhoff, HeidelbergCement, LafargeHolcim, Cemex, and of the most important well drillers, namely Halliburton, Baker Hughes and Schlumberger.

used require limestone of superior quality and higher temperatures in the kilns.

Production standards of oil well cement are strictly regulated by the APA, with costs associated to annual certification.

apart from the natural influence of economic growth rate in major economies. A question mark remains over the shale oil industry in the United States, given the pressure from environmental concerns and possible bans.

The oil well cement market has definitely turned in favor of the buyer. Given that prices are now much lower, some customers are opting to migrate from grade A to grade G or H oil well cement.

Especially since the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, much attention is given to the quality of the product, with regulatory pressure and willingness to pay for high-quality, certified oil well cement both increasing.

Sales of oil well cement used to be traded at a premium compared to ordinary Portland cement

Oil well cement used to attract producers for its premium compared to ordinary Portland cement. However, that incentive is almost completely gone and buyers are now preferring higher grades without so many concerns with prices.

Any improvement in oil well cement demand or prices is strongly tied to the price of crude oil, which normally varies with a series of geopolitical and weather-related factors,

It is important to keep in mind that CW Research based its outlook for oil well cement price and demand between 2017 and 2022 on three assumptions: OPEC will not be capable of controlling the output of crude oil; the price of crude will only start to recover and go above USD 70 per barrel by 2021; and offshore oil wells in certain regions will turn out to have a poor viability from an economic point of view. www.cemweek.com

The information is provided in a data-rich format that combines qualitative insights with extensive facts and data series to allow readers to make critical business decisions. By leveraging CW Research’s recognized and proven research capabilities in a highly accurate and precise format, the World Oil Well Cement Market Forecast 2022 is an indispensable tool to all professionals who wish to effortlessly navigate the complexities of the oil well cement industry.

More information about the report can be found here: https://www.cwgrp. com/research/research-products/ product/239-world-oil-well-cementmarket-forecast-2022 For more information and placing an order, please contact Liviu Dinu, Market Services & Marketing Consultant, CW Group (Europe), by phone at +40-74467-44-11, or e-mail at ld@cwgrp.com.

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FEATURE

CW RESEARCH:

Global Cement Volume Forecast Report 2H 2017 As the economy continues to display signs of improvement, CW Research updates its 2H2017 forecasts on consumption and capacity volumes for the global and selected regional cement markets

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FEATURE

D

riven by North American, Asian (ex-China), and African markets, global cement consumption is poised to increase steadily through 2022. The positive evolution of the global economy is the foundation for some outperforming regions, whose short-term forecasts were revised upwards by CW Research. Meanwhile, global cement capacity is still projected to contract, according to the 2H2017 Update of the Global Cement Volumes Forecast Report.

OUTLOOK 2017-2022 Given the ongoing recovery in macroeconomic indices globally, as well as the stabilization of the Chinese economy, investments in intensive construction are boosting an increase in worldwide cement consumption. However, very slow, or a lack of, recovery in some major economies, like Brazil and Russia, are still negatively affecting the cement demand forecast for 2017 and 2018.

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CW Research forecasts 2017 world cement demand to register an annual growth of 2.4 percent, reaching 4.2 billion tons in 2017.

The beginning of 2017 was marked by overall economic recovery, with sustained growth in North America, a faster-thanexpected stabilization of the Chinese economy, and an anemic yet important growth of the EU. As such, this year’s outlook on the future of cement volumes remains positive.

Global volumes will record a moderate increase in 2017, with sustained growth in certain developed markets (e.g. United States). A rising demand from emerging economies in Asia and Africa (such as India, Indonesia, Philippines and Kenya),

"China continues to determine the overall direction of global cement demand"

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will give an additional positive impetus to growth.

CW Research’s analysts predict global cement consumption to expand 2.2% per year on average through 2022, a figure that rises to 3.9% when it comes to global (exChina) cement consumption. Per capita cement consumption is also expected to record a single-digit increase. Overall, the global (ex-China) market is showing growth, being predominately led by three major regions: North America, Asia (exChina), and Africa.

REGIONAL FORECAST The global economy growth remains bright and on track, with overall growth estimated in July by the IMF at 3.5 percent during 2017 and 3.6 percent in 2018.

The organization’s growth prospects for the United States are now lower due to the expected less expansionary fiscal policy, when compared to the April update. The U.S. market is going through a fairly good period, outperforming expectations, as construction activity is experiencing an upturn in both residential and in infrastructure sectors. CW Research upgraded its previous U.S. forecast for cement demand due to the more encouraging macroeconomic indicators,

CEMENT DEMAND 2017, YEAR-ON-YEAR

-15% to -12% -12% to -9% -9% to -6% -6% to -3% -3% to 0% 0% to 3% 3% to 6% 6% to 10% 10 to 12%

-0,15 -0,12 -0,09 -0,06 -0,03 0,00 0,03 0,06 0,12

Source: CW Research

combined with a lower than expected impact in the aftermath of the 2016 elections.

However, in Japan and the Euro area, growth was revised upwards, as positive activity arose in late 2016 and early 2017.

China’s growth is also supposed to be above what was first expected, reflecting a strong first quarter growth, and expectations of strong fiscal policies.

Turkey is driving up the real GDP growth projections for emerging and developing

Europe in 2017 due to a strong recovery in exports in the final quarters of 2016 and the first quarter of 2017, after moderately contracting for four quarters. Furthermore, in the Middle East and North Africa regions, economic growth is projected to slow considerably in 2017,

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FEATURE mainly due to oil exporters slowing their production and trading activity as per OPEC agreement.

THE EVOLUTION OF EMERGING ECONOMIES In this context, the general trend for cement volumes shows slowness in some emerging markets, according to figures highlighted

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by CW Group’s 2H2017 update to the Global Cement Volume Forecast Report (GCVFR), a twice-yearly update on projections for cement volumes on a national, regional and global level.

China, a market that accounts for more than 50 percent of global consumption, will continue with a moderate growth going forward, backed up by infrastructure investments through the government’s ‘One Belt, One Road’ initiative.

The world’s second largest

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economy plans to spend CNY 15 trillion (USD 2.17 trillion) on transportation and infrastructure projects, including highspeed rail and roads, under the 13th FiveYear Plan between 2016 and 2020. Because of its size, China continues to determine the overall direction of global cement demand over the forecast period.

Other outperformers that will drive global ex-China growth over the forecast period are India and Philippines. India’s demonetization in 2016 negatively impacted residential construction and the

country’s overall performance in 2016.

Nevertheless, by 2022, cement demand in India is expected to pick up gradually at similar rates as it has in the past, sponsored by affordable housing programs, interest rate subvention scheme on housing loans, infrastructure spending, and a small revival in rural housing demand.

Similarly, in Philippines, the construction sector, driven predominantly by government infrastructure related spending, will remain the biggest driver of a 6.9 CAGR growth over the period 20172022.

OUTPERFORMING MARKETS AND CEMENT DEMAND Notably, markets such as Spain and Russia are pointing to a recovery and mild positive growth. CW Research made a positive revision of its previous expectations on the short term for both markets.

with the expansion of the Russian construction sector. Spanish cement demand for 2017 has been revised upwards by six percentage points on the back of economic recovery that and therefore strong residential and commercial construction.

The better-than-expected performance of the Russian economy is already having positive spillovers for the construction sector. Though recovering, we expect cement demand to undergo slow growth, given the numerous risks still associated

Furthermore, an expected standout performer in the Africa region is Kenya, accounting for around 25 percent of all major infrastructure projects currently happening in East Africa. Besides major infrastructure projects, as regional

Cement Consumption Year-To-Date (USD/TON)

Data as of Apr-17

Data as of May-17

Data as of Jun-16

20,0% 10,0% 0,0% -10,0% -20,0% -30,0%

Brazil

Russia*

Italy*

Saudi Arabia

Spain

China*

India*

U.S.

Turkey

Source: CW Research Source: CW Research

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FEATURE urbanization rates are gradually improving in Kenya, the appreciation for high rise residential buildings is also creating a demand for building materials.

While still being affected by the low oil price environment, some markets in the Middle East, such as Iran, will see a cement demand recovery on the short term. Iranian cement demand is revised upwards, forecasted to grow at a CAGR of around three percent, led by housing needs, as well as the infrastructure projects targeting road and rail construction.

On the other hand, only a few countries suffered downward revisions, when compared to the previous predictions.

In Greece, the deterioration in the construction industry, driven mainly by declining household incomes, difficulties in obtaining mortgages, and sustained high unemployment negatively impacted expectation for cement demand. Saudi Arabia has seen a downward revision for 2017, due to the fact that the government halted an important number of projects in the housing and infrastructure sectors.

GLOBAL CAPACITY 2017-2022 Global capacity additions are expected to continue to slow down, being primarily driven by the contraction in China. The Asian giant accounts for about 56 percent of the global cement production capacity, a significant and influential portion, and with China’s efforts to eliminate outdated capacity, global numbers are expected to drop over the next five years.

"Only a few countries suffered downward revisions, when compared to the previous predictions" China’s Cement Association revealed the Cement Industry Action Plan for Capacity (2017-2020), according to which Chinese manufacturers should focus on capacity reduction and eliminate lower-

quality grades of cement. Under the plan, manufacturers are expected to cut clinker capacity by 392.7 million tons and cease the production of grade 32.5 cement.

In spite of the government’s initiative to increase the target for capacity cuts, some large producers, such as Anhui Conch, as well as smaller ones continued to add new production lines in 2017. Nevertheless, recent steps towards the consolidation of the market in the shape of M&A proposals of major cement manufacturers could enable the government to reach its target.

As a result of the backward capacity elimination, coupled with overcapacity in the market, the production capacity for the Chinese cement market is expected to fall by 1.9 percent between 2017 and 2022. On the other hand, global ex-China capacity is projected to increase at a 2.3 percent annual average rate in 2017-2022.

The elimination of outdated capacity, coupled with a moderate growth in demand for cement and the phasing out of the production of lower grades of cement, will contribute to an improvement in utilization rates. Consequently, the average

Global Ex-China 2017-2022 Capacity Additions (Tons/%)

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utilization rate in the Chinese cement industry is expected to reach around 91 percent by 2022.

About the report The CW Group’s Global Cement Volume Forecast Report (GCVFR) is a twice-yearly update on projections for cement volumes on a national, regional and global level.

Moreover, this year’s ex-China global capacity additions are estimated to reach almost 100 million tons, out of which Asia ex- China’s added capacities are accounting for about 50 percent.

The forecast provides global and regional outlooks, as well as detailed perspective on 55+ of the world’s most important countries’ cement consumption, production, net-trade and cement production capacity. The fiveyear outlook presented in this benchmark study enables industry professionals to shape their perspective on markets and business priorities.

In 2017, Asia ex-China, one of the leading regions in terms of capacity expansions,

"Global capacity additions are expected to continue to slow down"

The Global Cement Volume Forecast Report has two updates a year: Extended (October): an extended update (includes briefs on the 55+ key markets with principal supply-demand impacting drivers and CW Research's analyst market assessments presenting a detailed numerical worldwide analysis, as well as the regional and global supply-demand model).

Quantitative update (March): a March each year quantitative update (only includes the numerical sections of the report, not country write-ups).

will add about 45 million tons of cement capacity, with Indonesia alone adding almost half. In Africa, the second largest region in terms of capacity additions, production capacity is expected to expand at CAGR of four percent between 2017 and 2022.

More information about the report can be found here: https://www.cwgrp. com/research/research-products/ product/12-global-cement-volumeforecast-report

Eastern Europe and CIS is also among the leading regions in adding capacity, with almost 40 million tons to be added in the period between 2017 and 2022. Russia and Turkey together will contribute with around twenty million tons of additional capacity only in 2017.

For more information and placing an order, please contact Liviu Dinu, Market Services & Marketing Consultant, CW Group (Europe), by phone at +40-74467-44-11, or e-mail at ld@cwgrp.com.

In the first half update of the Volume Forecast Report, CW Research analysts expected the global cement capacity to decrease at an annual average rate of -0.2 percent between 2016 and 2021. For the comparable period, their current expectation is that the global capacity will stay on similar levels through the period 2017-2022, balanced by contraction in China and higher capacity additions in regions such as Asia ex-China and Africa.

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Article

The impact of the cement industry in the Paris Agreement T

he historic climate change Paris Agreement was ratified in 2016 by all but two countries in the world, setting out an ambitious goal of keeping temperature shifts below 1.5º Celsius. This consensus is within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, and deals with greenhouse gas emissions mitigation, adaptation and finance. It was negotiated by representatives of 196 parties of the UN’s Framework Convention on Climate Change, and adopted by consensus on December 12, 2015.

The agreement’s terms should only start to be implemented in 2020, with each country setting their own goals towards this contribution. Some of these goals will have a direct effect on some industries, such as the power and auto industries, as countries cut or ban the use of more pollutant fuels, such as diesel and coal.

The cement industry, however, has been setting up its own goals towards sustainability for almost twenty years,

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starting in 1999 with the Cement Sustainability Initiative, a part of the World Business Council for Sustainable Development. Presently, the members of the council make up around 40 percent of the world’s cement production, ranging from local to global acting producers, all of which welcomed the new initiative and hope to incorporate further actions in their own sustainability efforts.

The CSI The Cement Sustainability Initiative (CSI) was set up in 1999 to examine issues surrounding sustainable developments in the cement sector, and to develop and

The cement sector could remove about one gigaton of CO2 emissions

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promote best practices across the industry in a number of areas. At the time, it was the first sector-wide voluntary initiative of its kind. Among its members stand large international companies such as LafargeHolcim, Cemex, CRH, and HeidelbergCement, but larger companies in emerging economies like India and China are also present, as is the case of Ultratech, and China Resources Cement, among others.

Not only does the CSI share new research in technology and equipment that helps companies reduce their carbon footprint, but it also provides data on global, regional, and countrywide emissions, and promotes sustainability programs from other related materials and industries, such as concrete.

The Get Number Right (GNR) initiative, first set up ten years ago, is a good example of the kind of work that the CSI does, as it compiles and reviews the data provided by several companies through a third party in an easy-to-understand

Total gross co2 emissions (in million tons) 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0

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Source: CSI – GNR Project and readily-available format. Most of the scientific research is provided for free, so that both members and nonmembers can be better informed regarding issues and technologies to improve their sustainability initiatives in a wide range of fields.

The cement sector and Paris The members of the Cement Sustainability Initiative welcomed this new permanent framework set up by the Paris Agreement, which defines long-term goals, as it could spur other

Emerging economies are increasingly focusing on climate-change friendly practices producers around the world to join forces with them and adopt some of the same methods that CSI members are already

implementing. According to forecasts, if this were to happen, it could mean a potential reduction of around one gigaton of CO2 emissions from the cement sector by 2030, which is equivalent to the annual emissions of a country like Germany. This new goal represents a surge of twenty to twenty five percent when compared to current goals of cuts in emissions.

The worldwide agreement, however, lets each country set up its own goals towards preventing climate change, which means that not every company, or even plant, will be affected equally. In fact, considering that the CSI is comprised of almost 30

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Article members of the industry spread out through 100 or so countries, from here on out there will be a more pronounced gap between the plants in developed countries and emerging economies.

A large part of the production of cement is centered in emerging economies, like Brazil, China and India, where government initiatives towards sustainable practices in business are not very common. However, the trend has been reversing in recent years, particularly in China, which is cracking down on emission-heavy industries.

Cement manufacturing was one of such industries, with the Chinese government setting out stricter emission and operating norms in the most recent years. The Indian government is also trying to restrain the cement sector from using more polluting fuels, such as petcoke, while in Brazil the production remains subdued due to the ongoing political stresses.

In other regions in the world, such as Europe, the use of alternative fuels and raw materials that provide both climate and waste management benefits is already in practice. However, since these countries are setting stricter goals towards the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, what has been done so far may not be sufficient, thus requiring further research, methods and equipment.

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Going forward In the future, the CSI wants to enforce global action plans covering subjects such as energy efficiency, the use of alternative fuels, the reduction of the clinker-tocement ratio, and to identify and measure the avoided emissions throughout the value chain by using sustainable concrete.

The initiative also aims at promoting the development of new cements and concrete, as well as carbon capture and utilization, or storage opportunities.

The CSI wants to continue to promote industrywide energy efficiency As cement remains one of the most used and sought-after materials for construction, a look at green buildings and sustainable construction techniques will also be required. There is also some evidence suggesting that concrete reabsorbs some

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of the carbon in its environment, thus offsetting the high rate of greenhouse gases emitted during its manufacturing process.

Some companies have successfully decreased their electrical and thermal energy consumption. In LafargeHolcim’s case, emissions of NOx and SO2, two greenhouse gases, have declined year-onyear in 2016, from 278,061 tons to 234,644 tons, and from 47,799 tons to 46,915 tons, respectively.

The Paris Climate Agreement will have a light effect on the cement industry, as its stride towards more sustainable and environmentally-friendly practices started decades ago. However, there is still a long way to go, even though some companies will be more affected than others, due to their geographic position.

The agreement terms might lead some companies to install emission-reducing equipment at a quicker pace than initially planned, but overall the sector’s goals, particularly those that are a part of the CSI, remain unchanged in the long term: the creation and consolidation of a greener industry that strives towards sustainability and contributes to the betterment of society through both its products and practices.

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DEPARTMENTS

PEOPLE Dangote Cement has a new executive director

Brian Egan, Chief Financial Officer (CFO) of Dangote Group, was appointed as the new Executive Director, Finance, of Dangote Cement.

Aliko Dangote, Chairman of Dangote Cement, welcomed Egan by saying: “I am delighted to welcome Brian to our Board. His appointment as Executive Director, Finance, reflects the significant contribution he has made to the Group since he joined in April 2014.” “He has transformed our financial management and reporting and become a trusted source of insight for investors. His appointment to the Board demonstrates our continuing commitment to building a world-class company based upon exciting growth and sound financial principles”, he said.

Until 2014, when Egan entered Dangote, he was executive director and CFO of Petropavlovsk and Aricom.

He was also the Group CFO of Gloria Jeans Corporation; financial director and company secretary for Georgia — Pacific Ireland; and chief finance officer at Coca-Cola HBC-Russia.

Lafarge South Africa has a new CEO Rossen Papazov has been appointed as the new CEO of the company, with effect from October 1 onward.

and Ready-mix Concrete in Belgium and the Netherlands, and commercial director, also for the Ready-mix business, in Romania.

Papazov entered the Holcim group in 2000 as the business development manager for Bulgaria. He has served as general manager of Aggregates and Ready-mix Concrete in Bulgaria, marketing director for Aggregates

For the last four years, Papazov has been the CEO of Holcim (and later LafargeHolcim) Azerbaijan, where he navigated the company through an economic crisis that hit the country.

World Cement Association welcomes the leader of Turkish cement market The World Cement Association announced that Turkey’s OYAK Cement Group has joined its fast-growing, international membership.

“We are delighted to welcome OYAK Cement to our worldwide cement community. We look forward to working with them and our other members to improve best practice and promote the cement industry across the globe", said Norman Greig, Secretary General of the World Cement Association.

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OYAK Cement is Turkey’s leading cement producer by capacity, producing nearly 14.5 million tons every year from plants in ten domestic locations.

It also represents 15.3 percent of all clinker manufactured in the country, with an annual production of 11.3 million tons.

PEOPLE Polpaico makes changes in administration The Chilean manufacturer appointed Marcos Büchi to be its new president.

Manuel Arrea has been asked to leave his post as general manager, with Javier Moreno taking his place.

Cementos Argos has a new general manager Gary Manuel de la Rosa has been appointed as the new general manager in charge of the group’s operations in Dominican Republic.

Gary de la Rosa began his career as civil engineer and has a master in firm administration. He counts on 29

years of experience in the cement and concrete sectors, and has led several companies and projects in Colombia and other countries.

Until recently, he was the head of the Cementos Argos’ industrial business in the region of Caribe and Central America. He is also a permanent member of the Iberoamerican Federation of Ready-Mix Concrete since 2008.

Carlos Moreno, Rafael Sepúlveda, and Jean Carlos Angulo – together with their surrogates Oliver Osswald, Marcelo Arrieta an Alfonso Barrera – have left the board of directors of the companies, with Marcos Büchi, Felipe Silva, and Sebastián Ríos replacing them.

Felipe Silva will also be the new vicepresident of Polpaico. For now, the post of surrogate directors will remain vacant.

Mordovcement has a new director After a meeting between the president of EuroCement Group, Mikhail Skorokhod, and the head of the Mordovia Republic, Vladimir Volkov, the first presented Johan Anton Nischwitz as the new director of Mordovcement.

George Thomas appointed to manage Çimko Çimento George Thomas, who has more than 50 years of international experience in the cement and construction materials sector, has joined Çimko Çimento and Beton Sanayi Ticaret, a subsidiary of SANKO Holding companies, as an independent board member.

Thomas has worked in a wide range of industries, from engineering to research and development, from technical

management to consulting, and has extensive knowledge and experience in the global cement sector, as well as regional, local market dynamics, growth, and expansion opportunities.

Thomas was in charge of senior management, responsible for cement and building materials at the International Finance Corporation, the World Bank’s private sector branch, for many years.

Nischwitz will substitute the previous director, Sergei Marchenkov, coming from the Voronezh branch of EuroCement.

Marchenkov was responsible for overseeing an investment of RUB 2 billion made in Mordovcement by its parent company, which has already allocated RUB 500 million to be invested by the end of the year.

The new director graduated in 2008 from the University of Materials, Energy, and Environment in Germany. For seven years, he worked in several factories from HeidelbergCement in Germany, Georgia, and Russia.

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EQUIPMENT

EQUIPMENT St Marys Cement’s plant reduces conveyor belt carryback Martin Engineering, a global manufacturer of conveyor belt cleaning technology, has installed an innovative cleaner in the plant, reducing its carryback, spillage, and equipment fouling.

The polyutherethane clean-up blades used until now were unable to keep up with their task.

“The fines and mud take on the tacky consistency of toothpaste, causing it to cling to the belt along with smaller pieces of aggregate and shale,” said David Accomando, Plant Maintenance Supervisor for St Marys Detroit.

“This led to a lot of carryback spilled along the return path, where it fouled idlers and built up so high under the loading zone that it would encapsulate the tail pulley.”

With much less expense of labor for cleanup, St Marys has managed to improve workplace safety and lower its cost of operation.

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KHD signs contracts in western sub-Sahara region Humboldt Wedag, a subsidiary of KHD Humboldt Wedag International (KHD), Cologne, Germany, has signed contracts totaling over EUR 80 million for the supply of equipment and execution of civil and erection works, as well as supervision

Topkinsky-based cement plant installs automatic printers Four Jetachi UX-D160W drop-jet printers were installed in the factory to speed up the packaging unit.

Information printed on cement bags includes validity period, certificate number, and other useful information, apart from the company’s brand.

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services, for a cement plant in western Sub-Sahara region.

The contracts will be booked as order intake as soon as the pre-conditions for commencing project execution are fulfilled.

The new printers will allow for full automatization of the printing process. Until now, manual labor was required to set down the certification number. The quality of the data imprinted is also expected to improve.

Operators of the workshop have undergone training to change the memory channel of the printer depending on the product being labelled. Printing is down with contact with the bags and on a moving conveyor belt.

EQUIPMENT Loesche supplying new mill to Attock Cement Loesche has now been able to provide a vertical roller mill of type LM 56.3+3 CS for grinding cement clinker to its end customer Attock Cement Pakistan Limited (ACPL). The new mill will be used in the new line 3 of the cement plant in Hub Chowki in Pakistan, in the Lasbela/Baluchistan district, 20 km north of Karachi.

KHD to supply clinker line to Soma Cement The manufacturer will supply a clinker production line with the capacity to produce 4,000 tons of clinker per day, which will be installed in Soma’s plant in Manisa, in the Turkish region of Aegean.

The project includes a Low-NOx calciner with Pyroloop technology, the

third of its kind to be commissioned in Turkey. This will also be the 51st kiln line installed by the equipment maker in the country.

Turkish manufacturers have an inclination for KHD’s lines, with the company accounting for 70 percent of all clinker production lines installed there. This new line is scheduled for commissioning in the spring of 2018.

Loesche provides four cement mills to Pioneer Cement Loesche is contributing to the new production line of the cement plant of Pakistani Pioneer Cement with four vertical roller mills. With the newly constructed cement line, Pioneer Cement will expand its production capabilities to around 8,000 tons per day at the plant in Chenki/Khushab district, at the center of the Punjab province.

A Loesche mill for grinding raw meal with a throughput of 630 t/h is to be used at the Pioneer Cement plant. In addition, there are also two cement mills for clinker milling with a processing capacity of 235 t/h each.

Dedusting of the raw material mill is carried out using two HURRICLON® systems of the LOESCHE subsidiary ATEC. The Loesche delivery, which will be processed by autumn 2018, also includes a coal mill with a throughput capacity of 60

t/h. This is equipped with the tried-andtested dynamic classifier of the LSKS model series (LOESCHE bar cage classifier).

The installer of the new plant and Loesche contracting partner in the project is the Chinese Chengdu Design Research Institute, which belongs to the wellknown company Sinoma International Engineering Co., Ltd., which specializes in the planning of cement plants and has already worked together successfully with Loesche within the scope of numerous orders. With this order, the number of Loesche mills in Pakistan increases to 32.

The mills will grind OPC cement with a fineness of 3,300 Blaine with a capacity of 200 t/h or 2,800 Blaine with a capacity of 240 t/h. ACPL sells the cement under its own brand "Falcon", which is a popular and widely-used product in the country.

The Portland cement produced complies with Pakistani standards and also the European Standard EN 1971. Alongside the delivery of the mills, the Loesche mandate also includes the monitoring and assembly, as well as the commissioning, which is due to take place in mid-2017. The Chinese company Hefei Cement Research & Design Institute, with whom Loesche has successfully delivered mills on a regular basis, will act as Loesche's contractor and will assume overall responsibility for the new cement line in Pakistan.

With the new line, Attock Cement Pakistan intends to further increase the production capacity of its existing cement plant in Hub Chowki from the previous level of 1,710,000 t/a. The use of advanced technology forms part of ACPL's strategy for maintaining the viability of its production facilities into the future by means of constant modernization. This is also intended to cover the increased local and regional demand. With this strategy, ACPL has managed to get to the top of the industry in Pakistan.

The overall production capacity of all cement plants in Pakistan stands at around 44 million tons. 70 percent remains in the country, while the remaining 30 percent is exported.

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EQUIPMENT Loesche to supply vertical roller mills in Turkey Loesche is contributing four of its highly-modern vertical roller mills to the new cement plant of the German technology firm Aunde in the Turkish region of Soma: one mill for grinding up to 350 tonnes of raw material per hour for cement manufacture; one for grinding up to 30 tonnes of coal per hour or 27 tonnes of petcoke per hour, as well as two additional Loesche mills with a throughput of 150 tons per hour each, for grinding clinker or granulated blast furnace slag.

The scope of delivery includes the tried-and-tested Loesche additional components, such as water injection, cyclones, slide gates and rotary feeders, as well as an extensive spare parts package for the next two years.

Loesche's customer Aunde is a newcomer in the industry, currently in the process of expanding its portfolio with plants for cement and clinker production. The cement plant currently under construction is based in Soma, which is situated within Turkey's second largest brown coal mining region. The region known as the Soma-Eynez Basin, which covers an area of 330 km², has secured reserves of around 120 million tonnes of anthracite. There are even optimistic estimates of up to 680 million tonnes.

Coal extraction in the direct vicinity of the new cement plant is carried out by the company Soma Kömür İşletmeleri, headquartered in Istanbul, and offers excellent conditions for establishing a new cement plant in the future.

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Pacific Cement to buy new equipment

All equipment will be acquired before the end of the year, Fareed confirmed.

Nouzab Fareed, CEO of Fijian Holdings, announced an investment of FJD 4-5 million destined to the acquisition of a new pre-grinding mill, a dryer, and an automatic packager. “It is a hard job but by buying a Chinese-made pre-grinding mill we will be able to increase our capacity to around 200,000 metric tons per year,” Fareed revealed.

Pacific Cement is the oldest cement plant in Fiji, with the capacity to produce 150,000 tons per annum. The country is currently experiencing a construction boom, and was recently faced with a cement shortage, when equipment failure led to a production halt at Pacific Cement.

Novo Holdings reduces position in FLSmidth On behalf of Novo Nordisk Fund, Novo Holdings has reduced its participation in FLSmidth by 5.1 million shares or 9.95 percent of the total nominal share capital of the company. Last January, Novo

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Holdings had already reduced its participation in the company from 15.02 percent to 14.9 percent.

Novo Holdings’ stake on FLSmidth is now under the 10-percent threshold.

However, the holding company will retain the status of major shareholder.

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Eurocement exports to the UK

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Holcim Philippines to increase capacity

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CRH announces changes on its board of directors

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Indian government to set up more fly ash brick kilns

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India: Petcoke burning to be allowed

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BP inaugurates petcoke storage space in Spain

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