India Cement and Construction Materials Journal (ICCM) #44

india A CemWeek Publication

issue 44

Cement

NOVEMBER 2018

& construction Materials

LEADERS Q&A

Ahmad Al-Rousan Secretary General of Arab Union for Cement and Building Materials

Cement Prices

Strong global economy boosting cement prices CW Research

World cement consumption to soften on Chinese slowdown

News

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Analysis

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Market Coverage

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Interviews

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People

GLOBAL GLOBALCEMENT CEMENT TRADE TRADEPRICE PRICEREPORT REPORT The TheGlobal GlobalCement CementTrade TradePrice PriceReport Report(GCTPR) (GCTPR)provides providesa amust-have, must-have, data-centric data-centric assessment assessment of of monthly monthly and and quarterly quarterly prices prices (USD (USD perper ton) ton) forfor cementitious cementitious products products - gray - gray cement, cement, white white cement, cement, clinker clinker && granulated granulated slag slag (GBFS): (GBFS): Ex-works Ex-works and and retail retail prices prices Trade Trade pricing pricing Together Together with with insights insights onon cement cement producers' producers' pricing pricing strategies strategies and and importimportantantprice pricerevisions, revisions,thetheGCTPR GCTPRprovides providesinsights insightsand anddata dataonondomestic domestic cement cement pricing pricing forfor over over 3030 key key markets, markets, asas well well asas international international trade trade prices prices forfor 70+ 70+ cement cement markets. markets.

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The The report report not not only only provides provides historical historical monthly monthly and and quarterly quarterly price price informainformation, tion, but but also also offers offers a three-month a three-month forecast forecast forfor each each country. country.

The The unique unique report report is is built built onon CW CW Research’s Research’s long long and and proven proven expertise expertise in in thethe cement cement industry. industry.

The The GCPR GCPR is is intended intended asas a a tool tool forfor understanding understanding thethe national, national,regional regionaland andinternational internationalcement cementpricing pricingenvironment environmentand andthethe around around thethe world. world. competitive competitive price price scenario scenario in in key key markets markets CEM CEM ENT ENT • B• UILDING BUILDING M ATERIALS M ATERIALS • DRY • DRY BULK BULK CARGO CARGO & & SHIPPING SHIPPING • CHEMICALS • CHEMICALS • • INDUST INDUST RIAL RIAL MINERALS MINERALS • INDUST • INDUST RIAL RIAL EQEQUIPMENT UIPMENT • PAPER • PAPER & & PULP PULP • PETCOKE • PET COKE r e sreeas recahr .cchw. cgw r pg.rcpo. m c o m• •i n qi un iqrui ei rsi@ e sc@ wcgw r pg.rcpo. m c o m• s• a lseasl@ e sc@ wcgw r pg.rcpo. m com

FEATURES Leaders Q&A: Ahmad Al-Rousan 04 In an exclusive interview with CemWeek Magazine, Eng. Ahmad Al-Rousan discusses the evolution of the Arab Union for Cement and Building Materials throughout the years, and assesses how oil prices, terrorism and the global economic crisis are impacting construction projects in the region

Analysis: Can Indian cement 10 Insight be green?

As the Indian cement industry aims to compete even further in international markets, and as the government tightens emission regulations, how can the road towards sustainability benefit manufacturers?

Analysis: Strong global 14 Insight economy boosts cement prices in 3Q 2018

World cement prices displayed an improving trend over the third quarter, supported by an overall healthy economic environment.

Trade protectionism and geopolitical tensions can nonetheless prove challenging in the medium term

Research: Global cement 18 CW consumption to soften on Chinese slowdown

india

Cement

DEPARTMENTS 2 Letter from the editor

The gray road to green

rOBERT MADEIRA

numbers in brief 3 Improved demand and growing production

Margarida Cunha

& construction Materials

www.cemweek.com/india

costs led to prices expanding on a USD basis

Research and Analytics 24 Cement Volumes

cemweek publisher head of cw group research

Editorial Coordinator

Liviu Dinu Mihnea Manea Advertising

Paulo Cruz Raluca Cercel Sara Ruas SimĂŁo Alvarez

cement 26 people 28 equipment highlights 30 regional news

CONTRIBUTING WRITERS & RESEARCHERS

sANTOSH sHETTYE DESIGN

BUZZ 32 Top 10 CemWeek, BMWeek and PetcokeWeek stories

04

With economic growth fading out in some markets and improving in others, the overall macroeconomic scenario is moving towards a cloudier period. Cement demand will continue to grow outside China, but at a slower pace

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letter from the editor

The gray road to green

reen can be expensive. At least that is one of the key reasons presented by heavy industry manufacturers when confronted with the possibility of reducing their carbon footprint. From converting and/or buying equipment, to training personnel, going green entails a long-term vision that not all companies can afford. It is hard to keep your eyes on the prize when it seems so far away. Yet, there is no reason to be pessimistic. According to the report “Mission Possible: Reaching net-zero carbon emissions from harder-to-abate sectors by midcentury�, released in November by the Energy Transitions Commission, full decarbonization is technically feasible with technologies that already exist, although several still need further investment to reach commercial readiness.

As the road towards green is still a bit gray, in this issue we take a look at the Indian cement industry and assess how manufacturers are incorporating principles such as sustainability and ecology in their cement-making processes. From increasing fly ash use to relying on alternative energy sources, there is still a lot to be done.

lucrative third quarter, when both domestic and trade prices for cement rose on the back of a still improving global economy. With its overarching influence, China, and its shrinking cement output, still holds the key to the future. Oil prices will also continue to be an important piece of the global cement consumption puzzle. As Ahmad Al-Rousan, Secretary General of Arab Union for Cement and Building Materials, attests, that is especially true for the Arab cement industry, which was forced to postpone and cancel a large number of planned construction projects following the decline in oil prices in 2017.

The road to green may still be a bit gray. And it will certainly be paved with its fair amount of hits and misses.

But if we manage to keep prizes within a short distance, maybe heavy industries will be keener on keeping their eyes on them – and reaching for them.

Because of its increased production costs, perhaps green cement will not start by having an appealing price. But for the moment, manufacturers can reap the fruits of a

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India Cement and Construction Materials Journal

Margarida Cunha

Editorial Coordinator

numbers in brief

Cement prices rise in 2Q2018 Improved demand and growing production costs led to prices expanding on a USD basis During the second quarter of 2018, cement prices improved in most geographies, both ex-works and retail-wise. Though the trend reverses in the third quarter due to a slight softening of year-to-date demand and depreciation of local currencies in key markets, the headwinds made in the second quarter of the year will be instrumental in companies’ end-year results.

CHART: 2Q2017 and 2Q2018 Ex-Works Regional Prices (USD/t)

Source: Company reports, CW Research’s Global Cement Trade Price Reporth

The most notable increase in ex-works cement price in USD per ton occurred in China. Limited cement supply caused by the closure of outdated cement plants (as part of the government’s consolidation and scaling down process), coupled with a decline in consumption that is slower than the decrease in production, have led to the price increase. Year-on-year, cement ex-works prices improved by 42 percent.

CHART: 2Q2017 and 2Q2018 selected retail prices (USD/t)

Source: Company reports, CW Research’s Global Cement Trade Price Report

A similar hike happened in the case of the Chinese cement retail price during the quarter. In South America, both cement ex-works and retail prices decreased when considering the regional average, representing a 2.0 percent decline quarter-on-quarter, and a 9.6 percent contraction year-on-year. The depreciation of the Colombian peso (when compared to US dollars) and a decrease in cement demand played an oversized role in Colombia’s pricing decline. Brazil’s pricing depreciation (in USD terms) also contributed to the regional cement average ex-works price decrease. The national cement demand slight recovery was not sufficient to offset the depreciation of the Brazilian real (USD basis).

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Leaders Q&A

Eng. Ahmad Al-Rousan Se c re t ar y Ge n era l ,

A ra b U n i o n f o r Ce m e n t a n d B u i l d i n g Ma t er i a l s

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India Cement and Construction Materials Journal

In an exclusive interview with CemWeek Magazine, Eng. Ahmad Al-Rousan discusses the evolution of the Arab Union for Cement and Building Materials throughout the years, and assesses how oil prices, terrorism and the global economic crisis are impacting construction projects in the region

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Leaders Q&A The Arab Union for Cement and Building Materials (AUCBM) completed 40 years in March 2017. How has the organization evolved since its inception to the current day?

When the AUCBM was established back in the seventies of the last century, the cement industry was geographically limited in terms of spread on the Arab scale. It was present in a few Arab countries with a capacity not exceeding 40 million tons.

The industry was mostly state-owned; it lacked qualified staff and relied on foreign expertise. Thus, AUCBM started giving priority to qualifying Arab cadres and conducting studies for the expansion of this industry, which has become a pioneer and is now spread all over Arab countries with a capacity of around 340 million tons. No doubt, the development and growth of the cement industry has led to the expansion of AUCBM tasks on both Arab and global scales, and it has now become one the most important associations globally.

growth of building and construction industry – the essential industry for infrastructure and housing. Since the cement industry is a highly important component in the building and construction industries, AUCBM efforts were concentrated on helping countries create an advanced cement industry that meets the market demands. Additionally, the cement industry has generated others related to the construction sector, as well as other supporting industries – thus contributing in establishing an industrial base, providing jobs and qualifying workforce.

The Arab cement industry lacked qualified staff and relied on foreign expertise

What new cement projects are being developed in the The cement industry has region? contributed significantly The past few years have witnessed a to the economic growth of large number of Arab and international Arabia. What has been the investments in the cement industry, role of Arab Union for Cement and the number of cement factories and Building Materials in the increased significantly, particularly in the GCC countries and Arab North industry’s growth?

It is well known that economic growth in developing countries, including Arab countries, has a positive impact on the

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African countries. However, the recent global economic crisis, lower oil prices, the invasion of several Arab countries by

India Cement and Construction Materials Journal

armed terrorist acts, and the movements subsequent to the “Arab Spring�, all have led to the decline of these industries in terms of building new factories and to the consequent lower consumption rates.

Currently, the only countries with new cement projects are Algeria and Egypt, as well as Saudi Arabia to a certain extent.

The global economic crisis led to a decline in building new factories and in cement consumption How have oil prices influenced the industry lately?

Overall, the Arab cement industry, particularly the GCC countries, was affected by the decline in oil prices in 2017, and a large number of planned construction projects were postponed or canceled; naturally, this has led to the decline in demand for cement. The political instability in a number of countries has also contributed for this backdrop.

However, the recent increase in oil prices so far in 2018 may, to some extent, positively influence demand for cement in a limited manner. Additionally, expectations for reconstruction may open up demand growth.

How does AUCBM cultivate its goals and relationships on a daily basis?

The current conditions experienced by some Arab countries, accompanied by a decline in demand for cement, oil prices and the large expansions in the cement industry, appealed for a review of the situation of this industry at the Arab level. In light of this, AUCBM is currently working on developing practical proposals to meet these challenges: 1. Applying unified Arab standard specifications; 2. Limiting expansions, now that design capacities have exceeded 340 million tons; 3. Deepening inter-Arab cement trade; 4. Adherence to global terms and conditions with a view to making way for Arab cement exports; 5. Diversifying cement products.

In addition to other companies related to the cement industry, AUCBM is a member of Arab centers that work in the area of research and industrial development. What is being done in Arabia to improve and unleash this sector?

The most important matter we are working on is ensuring a sustainable Arab Cement industry through improving the performance of factories and upgrading them; embarking on the use of alternative fuels based on municipal and industrial

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Leaders Q&A

wastes in order to serve this industry and contribute to environmental conservation; diversifying the product in a way that serves the building and construction industry’s requirements; locating new markets; and limiting expansions in the current stage.

Companies’ investments in green technology attest the increasing importance of sustainability and environmental commitments.

How important are environmental considerations for AUCBM?

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The recent increase in oil prices may positively influence demand for cement The environment is one of the most important issues for AUCBM. Several years ago, AUCBM published a guide about environmental requirements in the cement industry. Moreover, AUCBM has been coordinating with CSI (The Cement Sustainability Initiative) for this purpose; it also translates CSI’s publications and distributes them to its members. In addition, AUCBM pursues the development of factories in this regard.

India Cement and Construction Materials Journal

What are the main expectations for the Arabian cement sector in 2019?

Some Arab countries have been suffering from political and economic instability for a long time, particularly Syria and Yemen in the Levant, and Libya and Tunisia in North Africa. These difficult situations have been reflected in most industries and development projects, including cement and building materials, which are the main motive for the construction industry, the core of the economy in these countries and neighboring states.

Founded in 1977, Arab Union for Cement and Building Materials is an inter-Arab International organization, affiliated to the General Secretariat of the Arab League and the Council of Arab Economic Unity.

Syria

Headquartered in Damascus, AUCBM aims Damascus principally at developing and supporting technical, industrial and commercial relations; coordinating industrial activities amongst its members in the field of cement and building Arab countries materials; and participating industries in Arab countries among in suggesting general in order to achieve technical through practicing its tasks, grounds for developing these and economic integration responsibilities and expertise.

Moreover, the decline in oil prices in GCC countries during recent years has also led to the cancellation or postponement of many of the planned projects. Of course, these factors have adversely affected the cement industry, and demand has declined significantly. Production capacities were decreased to less than 70% and prices fell to their lowest levels.

In the second half of this year, political and security changes began to emerge in some countries, in addition to a rise

We expect 2019 will see a growth in the building industry

in oil prices, which will necessarily lead to improved economic conditions.

Accordingly, we expect that the year 2019 will see a growth in the building industry for the sake of reconstruction in some countries that have suffered instability, as well as the execution of some planned projects due to high oil prices, which will contribute to the rise in demand for cement.

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Insight Analysis

Can Indian cement be

green?

As the Indian cement industry aims to compete even further in international markets, and as the government tightens emission regulations, how can the road towards sustainability benefit manufacturers?

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India Cement and Construction Materials Journal

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Insight Analysis

A

s one of the most widely used and traded commodities at a global scale, cement is a cornerstone of the modern world. However, it has a steep cost environmentally, as its production releases heavy amounts of carbon dioxide and other gases into the atmosphere.

A research report from Robbie M. Andrew for the CICERO Center for International Climate Research in 2017 estimates that worldwide cement production is responsible for up to five percent of total anthropogenic CO2 emissions, excluding land-use change, and also the third largest cause source of emissions, after fossil fuels and deforestation.

Scientists and industry both continue to look into new solutions in order to improve emissions, either in technology, energy efficiency, product mix, and others.

In India, the arising matter is even more pressing, especially as pollution levels

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around key manufacturing hubs such as New Delhi raise to concerning levels, prompting the government and the Supreme Court to enforce new regulation targeting industries. A preemptive strike might be the best chance for the industry to guard itself against future damaging regulations, and adopt more

India’s cement plants are some of the most technologically advanced in the world environmentally friendly policies and technology. This is especially pressing considering the Indian cement industry is one of the largest global cement producers, being estimated to reach a cement capacity of 440 million tons by the end of 2018, according to CW Research’s latest Global Volume Forecast Report.

India Cement and Construction Materials Journal

Usage of supplementary cementitious materials and carbon capture Fly ash has long been a problem in India’s move towards the extension of its energy grid, which heavily relies on coal. The government decided to intervene first in 1999, pushing forward a program that advocated for the coal burning byproduct to be used in a series of industrial manufacturing processes, including cement and concrete making.

The program promoted by the Ministry of Environment, Forests and Climate Change aimed at ensuring a 100 percent utilization rate of the produced fly ash.

Usage in 2016-2017 reached a percentage of 63.28 percent, with the cement industry using about 23.98 percent of the total fly ash produced during that financial year, at around 169.3 million tons. The cement industry also uses other waste materials such as blast furnace slag from the evergrowing Indian steel industry in their manufacturing processes. The growth in the usage of domestic coal, with the government implementing a program that aims to mine up to a billion tons per year by 2020, could also boost the availability of fly ash. However, its quality could dampen usage prospects by cement makers.

It has also been found that, despite cement producing a high amount of carbon dioxide during its production, concrete absorbs a high amount of the greenhouse gas and stores it in a process known as carbonation.

Further reduction of greenhouse gases from manufacturing processes could be aided by the government’s investment in carbon capture technology and storage processes, which the Minister of State for Power and Renewable Energy Piyush Goyal said that the country is ready to fully finance moving forward.

Technology and energy India’s cement plants are some of the most advanced in the world, as the industry continues to expand and develop new greenfield projects using the latest technology and developments, which allow companies to cut on emissions per ton of production. Several companies are also turning from regular fossil fuels such as coal, petcoke or fuel oil, and embracing more sustainable forms of energy during their manufacturing processes, although their kilns still require the use of high temperatures better achieved with the use of these fuels. Captive energy plants using biomass, solar, and wind power are increasingly popular across the country, both in greenfield and brownfield developments.

Conclusion

Fly ash and blast furnace slag mixes in cement manufacturing promote sustainability UltraTech has recently joined the World Business Council for Sustainable Development’s Cement Sustainability Initiative, and has since then renewed its efforts towards sustainability and lowering the carbon footprint of their final products.

UltraTech has also installed several waste heat recovery systems at integrated plants for Portland cement, with current installed capacity for these systems across the company’s network totaling 59 MW. The company has increased electricity generated from waste heat recovery in 2016-17 by 46 percent when compared to the previous year, and also installed capacity of 2.6 MW of solar power, as well as 1.13 MW of wind power, which cumulatively, have a carbon reduction potential of 32,000 tons of CO2.

Despite India’s push for a deep cut in emissions, the government’s very own initiatives in coal mining and energy expansion clash with its ideals. Although renewable energy projects are growing, as well as other sustainability initiatives that aim to promote greener alternatives, India’s own growth in infrastructure, housing, and other important pushes towards a more modern and industrialized country could boost those same emissions.

The construction industry as a whole is set to benefit from large infrastructure and housing programs, with the cement industry in particular benefitting from several of these. Cement demand and production are expected to keep expanding, and with them, emissions. This makes the industry’s push for more sustainable alternatives and methods across its manufacturing process an even more important event, for, even though concrete absorbs a lot of the carbon dioxide produced during cement manufacturing, and companies are cutting back on emissions, a carbon neutral cement industry in India could still be very far away.

Other Indian companies, such as Shree Cement and Dalmia Bharat, have also adhered to the initiative, and have enforced their own similar projects either in their own manufacturing processes or even working with rural communities to ensure a sustainable future for the industry.

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Insight Analysis cw research

Strong global economy boosts cement prices in 3Q 2018 World cement prices displayed an improving trend over the third quarter, supported by an overall healthy economic environment. Trade protectionism and geopolitical tensions can nonetheless prove challenging in the medium term

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Photo Credit: UltraTech Cement

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Insight Analysis

G

lobally, gray cement trade prices rose in the third quarter of 2018, according to the 3Q 2018 update of CW Research’s Global Cement Trade Price Report. Domestic prices also recorded a general improvement, particularly in the US and Mexico, where major manufacturers recorded doubledigit increases in net sales.

Such promising price developments were underpinned by an expanding global economy. However, some international risks subsist.

The largest threat to this expansionary trend will likely arise from trade protectionism By the end of 2018, the global economy is anticipated to grow almost four percent due to strong performances in most

SNAPSHOT: EX-WORKS CEMENT PRICES IN SELECT MARKETS (USD/ton)

Source: CW Research

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developed and developing markets. The largest threat to this expansionary trend will likely arise from trade protectionism, which, coupled with geopolitical tensions and political incertitude in the largest global economies, could lead to medium-term challenges.

Chinese prices surge on short supply In China, gray cement average selling prices rose by over 30 percent year on year in the third quarter of 2018 due to tight supply in the aftermath of the closing of cement plants across the country.

Improving domestic and external demand

in Thailand also led to a quarterly price increase, with domestic prices rising to over USD 50 per ton.

In the US, cement average selling prices edged up quarter on quarter, driven mostly by the growth of the residential sector across regions, but in particular in Southern US. In Mexico, domestic indices increased on the back of favorable activity in the housing and industrial sectors.

In the upcoming quarter, most regions are expected to see an increase in gray cement trade prices The Middle East region recorded a more modest improvement, with the regional average for cement domestic prices rising by 1.6 percent quarter-on-quarter due to the rebound of the construction sector in the UAE. Cement prices in Iran and Saudi Arabia continued to decrease as a consequence of low demand and tight domestic competition.

Global trade prices to rise in 4Q 2018 In September 2018, global average FOB prices for gray cement increased by over five percent to USD 62.8 per ton when compared to the previous quarter.

During 3Q 2018, Thailand, Japan, Turkey, Canada and China were the top exporters of gray cement. Over the period, the Thai cement market shipped close to ten percent of total gray cement exports.

Increased demand in the US led to an improvement of gray cement FOB prices in North America to USD 114.2 per ton.

In the upcoming quarter, most regions are expected to see an increase in gray cement trade prices, with the exception of Eastern Europe and the Middle East.

White cement FOB prices contract YoY In the third quarter, white cement export volumes recorded a double-digit improvement to reach 1.5 million tons.

Conversely, trade prices for the premium commodity declined on a yearly basis in Asia Pacific, the Mediterranean Basin, and Western Europe, but increased in Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and Scandinavia and the Baltics.

At a global level, in 3Q 2018, clinker trade volumes edged down on a quarterly basis, with global prices estimated to have reached 36.1 USD per ton for a set of 21 countries. Unsurprisingly, Asia-PacificJapan remained as the leading exporting region of clinker during the third quarter of 2018, with shipped volumes nearing eight million tons.

In September 2018, median slag prices dipped by a double-digit margin when compared to September 2017, when prices stood at USD 19.2 per ton. Over the same period, global slag export volumes increased year on year, with Japan standing as the world’s main exporter of the commodity.

About the report The Global Cement Trade Price Report (GCTPR) is CW Research’s benchmark price assessment for monthly gray cement, white cement, clinker and granulated blast furnace slag prices and volumes.

The 150+ page report, published on a quarterly basis, serves as the industry go to source for monthly price data for over 70 individual markets worldwide, including multiple cornerstone data series: import, export, ex-works and market prices. Additionally, the GCTPR includes extensive discussion of key players’ price strategies as well as trade price forecast and select trade volumes for each country.

The report also provides regional price indices as well as a quick review of trading dynamics and drivers in the different regions. Additionally, the GCTPR includes monthly historical data series, preliminary estimates for the latest quarter, as well as a threemonth forecast for all price types.

More information about the report can be found here: http://www.cwgrp. com/research/research-products/ product/1-global-cement-trade-pricereport

For more information and placing an order, please contact Liviu Dinu, Market Services & Marketing Consultant, CW Group (Europe), by phone at +40-74467-44-11, or e-mail at ld@cwgrp.com.

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feature CW RESEARCH

Global cement consumption to soften on Chinese slowdown

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With economic growth fading out in some markets and improving in others, the overall macroeconomic scenario is moving towards a cloudier period. Cement demand will continue to grow outside China, but at a slower pace.

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feature

B

ased on its reading of the macroeconomic scenario, trends on the construction sector, and geopolitical factors, CW Research has prepared a forecast on cement demand between 2018 and 2023.

China, responsible for half of the world’s demand, is reaching a maturity level that foretells a prolonged, but controlled decline in cement consumption.

Faced with this new cycle, Beijing has introduced swift measures to limit production and capacity that will also have an impact on the local demand.

Meanwhile, cement consumption is expected to continue its growth in the rest of the world. However, economic prosperity is starting to fade out and regional risks could rapidly turn into a full-blown recession.

Macro-Economic Scenario The global economy is currently experiencing a period of stabilization. With few exceptions, global economies are growing in tandem, especially

since Brazil and Russia managed to partly recover from their recessions.

However, there are some risks that must be accounted for, including the upcoming election cycles in Europe and United States. Anti-EU parties continue to gain traction, threatening investor’s confidence on the euro market, while in the United States, mid-term elections may create some turbulence on the economy and the stock market after a prolonged period of growing productivity and confidence. Also, the full effect of the ongoing trade war between the United States and China has not yet been assessed, and the unsolved questions regarding the North-American Free Trade Agreement persist. Finally, an increase in interest rates could increase volatility in the international markets.

Some economies, including the United Kingdom and Turkey, are already facing slow gross domestic product growth The latest forecast indicates that the global economy will continue to grow in the coming years. However, some markets may experience a slowdown, as is the case of China. The local economy is reaching a new level of maturity, and the advanced countries that have already experienced a period of strong growth find it difficult to maintain it.

Some economies, including the United Kingdom and Turkey, are already facing slow gross domestic product growth, with the latter expected to face a recession in the coming quarters as it goes

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through a period of monetary chaos and political instability. To the contrary, emerging and developing economies in Asia are experiencing a period of both strong domestic demand and exports.

Similarly, oil exporters in Northern Africa and the Middle East are benefiting from an increase in the price of crude, but they require further economic diversification in order to avoid future shocks. Finally, the sub-Saharan region has benefited from an increase in commodity prices and from a recovery in its largest economy, Nigeria.

Demand Cement demand has been positively influenced by the current macroeconomic scenario, achieving healthy levels of growth. Likewise, it is also exposed to the aforementioned risks. Those risks could rapidly lead to a new recession and, as the past trends show, the global economy is characterized by periods of growth followed by periods of recession.

While the global demand for cement is expected to fall by 0.2 percent this year, that decline can be attributed to China. Beijing has decided to focus on debt control, leading to many infrastructure projects, such as new subway networks, being put on hold and stricter regulations being imposed on public-private partnerships.

In China, cement demand is being dragged down by lack of investment in the real estate and infrastructure sectors. In total, China is expected to consume 2.55 billion tons of cement in 2018, a decrease of 2.8 percent compared to the past year.

The country's economy is now reaching a mature stage similar to that grasped by the western markets 20 to 30 years ago, when demand for cement started to reach its plateau. Excluding China, cement demand will likely grow by 3.3 percent this year, to 1.79 billion tons, sustained by an improvement in the residential sector in the case of developed markets and by higher investment in infrastructure in developing ones.

This represents one of the fastest growth rates for global ex-China in recent history.

HEATMAP: GLOBAL 2018 YEAR-OVER-YEAR OUTLOOK GROWTH

Source: CW Research

Capacity As on demand, China has a disproportional weight on the global increase of cement capacity. Last year, the country represented

In China, cement demand is being dragged down by lack of investment in the real estate and infrastructure sectors over half of all new cement production capability added to the global fleet.

However, the Chinese government has introduced stiff regulations on capacity increase, including the latest rules on inputs for captive power plants. Thus, China’s share of worldwide capacity

additions is expected to decline by two percentage points this year.

Excluding China, the rest of the world will probably witness an addition of around 117.5 million tons per annum to cement capacity, compared to 105.3 million times in 2017. Asia ex-China accounts for over a third of the increase in capacity expected for this year, with India representing 40 percent of the new additions in that region. Indian manufacturers have already announced the construction of production lines with the capacity to produce 60 million tons of cement per annum for this y e a r .

O t h e r

national markets such as Turkey, Egypt, Nigeria, and Algeria are also worth mentioning when it comes to capacity additions. Lastly, in the wake of the end of the ISIS conflict, Iraq alone is adding four million tons per annum in capacity until the end of 2018 in a bid to become self-sufficient, with a substantial effect on the figures for the Middle East.

India Cement and Construction Materials Journal

2018 and beyond Going forward, CW Research foresees a slowdown in demand growth at the global level based on both macroeconomic and local factors.

In the Middle East, cement consumption will decline

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feature CHART: GLOBAL CEMENT CAPACITY (Mn tons)

Source: CW Research

in 2018, as the two major producers and consumers in the region – Saudi Arabia and Iran – continue to struggle with overcapacity and sluggish demand domestically. The next five years are believed to bring a recovery in cement consumption for the region.

The forecast for the African continent has been revised downwards from early predictions due to lower-than-expected growth in 2018. Consumption in the region is expected to grow by 1.6 percent in 2018 and by 3.6 percent per annum through 2023. This year’s figures have been negatively impacted by underperformances

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The forecast for the African continent has been revised downwards due to lower-thanexpected growth in 2018

India Cement and Construction Materials Journal

of the Egyptian, Tunisian, and, especially, the Kenyan markets. Kenya has faced a protracted presidential election that resulted in delays on state-backed infrastructure projects and in a fall in the confidence of private investors.

CW Research expects cement demand to grow by 2.8 percent on a cumulative annual growth average in United States, following an improvement of three percent this year.

In Western Europe, cement demand is expected to increase by 2.8 percent yearon-year in 2018 to 129.2 million, while maintaining an average growth of 2.2 percent for the period between 2018 and

The market of Latin America is expected to display a recovery this year, following consecutive years of declining cement demand. During the next five years, growth will likely accelerate as the regional economy recovers. In 2018 alone, consumption of cement is projected to

CW Research expects Latin America, as well as Africa, to benefit from the latest improvement in commodity prices expand at an annual average growth rate of 1.4 percent, and by 2.4 percent by 2023.

This year, Argentina has outperformed the remaining countries of the region thanks to a dynamic construction sector and large projects such as dams, highways, bridges and tunnels. To the contrary, Brazil continued immersed in political and social instability.

The truck drivers’ strike, which occurred in May, paralyzed most of the country, including the majority of cement companies.

The Brazilian economy will likely stabilize in the coming years, contributing to an improvement of the cement sector. CW Research expects Latin America, as well as Africa, to benefit from the latest improvement in commodity prices, increasing both state expenditure on much-needed infrastructure and the purchasing power of citizens and private companies.

Conclusion Outside China, the global economy is performing well, with economic growth trickling down to construction activity and to cement consumption. While cement demand is expected to keep growing in the coming years, the macroeconomic scenario may become clouded by political instability, friction in trade relations, and an increase in interest rates. Advanced economies will, most likely, be unable to keep the current growth rates and the world’s economy will enter a period of more tepid growth, with the aforementioned risks coming into play and potentially triggering a recession.

At the same time, some markets are in another stage of the cycle. Those include the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America, hit by a decline in commodity prices and other internal problems. CW Research expects most of those economies to experience a recovery in the coming years, benefiting from a rise on those commodity prices.

Photo Credit - Eric Kilby

2023. In those advanced markets, cement demand has been sustained by a steady growth in the economies but, as it was already mentioned, those economies will likely fail to maintain those growth margins.

About the report CW Group’s Global Cement Volume Forecast Report (GCVFR) is a twiceyearly update on projections for cement volumes on a national, regional and global level.

The forecast provides global and regional outlooks, as well as detailed perspective on 57 of the world’s most important countries’ cement consumption, production, net trade and cement production capacity. The five-year outlook presented in this benchmark study enables industry professionals to shape their perspective on markets and business priorities.

The Global Cement Volume Forecast Report has two updates a year: Extended (October): an extended update (includes briefs on 57 key markets with principal supply-demand impacting drivers and CW Research's analyst market assessments presenting a detailed numerical worldwide analysis, as well as the regional and global supply-demand model).

Quantitative update (March): a quantitative update (only includes the numerical sections of the report, not country write-ups).

More information about the report can be found here: https://www.cwgrp. com/research/research-products/ product/12-global-cement-volumeforecast-report

For more information and placing an order, please contact Liviu Dinu, Market Services & Marketing Consultant, CW Group (Europe), by phone at +40-74467-44-11, or e-mail at ld@cwgrp.com.

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OCTOBER / NOVEMBER 2018

23

CEMENT MARKETS

CW Research

Cement Volumes Year-to-date cement production in Argentina increased five percent in July as a result of the positive trend in the construction sector and government investment in highways, bridges and tunnels. Production has given signs of softening after a rapid growth in the first six months of the year.

India is the country from this market selection that displayed the highest improvement in cement production, reporting an increase of 15.5 percent on a year-to-date basis.

Colombian cement output decreased two percent on a year-to-date basis, due to the delay in several construction and infrastructure projects. However, an increase in cement production and consumption is anticipated for the following years as a response to the continuing 4G projects.

To reduce investment and balance public debt, the Chinese government created publicprivate partnerships to avoid investing in metro infrastructures, the most expensive type of

project the Chinese government had planned.

These government measures led to a decrease of 9.5 percent in cement production in China on a year-to-date basis.

India is the country from this market selection that displayed the highest improvement in cement production, reporting an increase of 15.5 percent on a year-to-date basis. The main reason is the fact that the government is about to invest in low-cost housing to meet the urgent residential needs of 30 million families.

In spite of the Tokyo Olympics event in 2020, Japan decreased its cement production by two percent and consumption by 0.1 percent on a year-to-date basis. This decrease was due to a contraction of the housing sector and to the government’s attempt to reduce public debt, which led to savings in public investment.

CHART: Year-to-Date Cement Demand in July 2018 (%)

Sources: CW Research

To learn more, please contact the CW Research team at sales@cwgrp.com

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India Cement and Construction Materials Journal

CW Research CEMENT MARKETS

Saudi Arabia is the country that recorded the biggest reduction in both cement production and consumption, 11.2 percent and 11.6 percent, respectively, on a year-to-date basis. The cement consumption decrease continues to be affected by the aftermath of the decline in oil prices.

Investments in construction and infrastructure projects are getting delayed, due to the drop in the main driving sector of the kingdom’s economy: oil.

Cement consumption in Brazil dropped 1.7 percent when comparing July 2018 year-to-date to that of the previous year. The main reason for this drop is the lack of government investment in the construction sector, due to the focus on the fiscal consolidation agenda and on the elections.

The election result may be unfavorable for the construction industry, so investors are waiting for the outcome to invest.

From our country selection, in terms of cement consumption, Peru is the market that improved the most, posting an increase of 1.4 percent due to the wage increase and a low inflation rate, which promoted an increase of condominiums and multi-family buildings. The Peruvian Chamber of Construction (CAPECO) announced its expectation for the construction sector to expand by three percent during the current year.

In Morocco, cement consumption declined from eight million to 7.8 million tons, a decrease of 1.3 percent on a year-to-date basis, due to a stagnation in the real estate market. For the coming year, cement consumption is expected to improve due to the implementation of several projects in the construction sector.

CHART: Year-to-Date Cement Production in July 2018 (%)

Saudi Arabia is the country that recorded the biggest reduction in both cement production and consumption, 11.2 percent and 11.6 percent, respectively, on a year-to-date basis.

Sources: CW Research

To learn more, please contact the CW Research team at sales@cwgrp.com

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25

cement PEOPLE

P

eople

Nuvoco Vistas appoints new managing director

Jayakumar Krishnaswamy was picked for the position of managing director at Nuvoco Vistas, formerly known as Lafarge India.

The new managing director will oversee the cement, ready-mix concrete, and aggregates business divisions.

Previously, Krishnaswamy participated in the construction of Nuvoco’s Chittor cement plant and its distribution system. Before taking the new post, he was the managing director of wall paints and industrial coatings firm Akzo Nobel India.

JK Cement joins World Cement Association The World Cement Association announced on September 11 that JK Cement, one of India’s leading cement producer, has joined the organization. With JK Cement joining as a Corporate Member, the association has further grown its global network.

With an annual grey cement capacity of 10.5 Mt. and a grey cement capacity expansion by 4.5 Mt. under progress, JK Cement is one of the leading cement manufacturers in India. It is also one of the two major players in the white cement market in the country with an annual capacity of 0.6 Mt. The Company also owns and operates a white cement plant in the UAE which has an annual capacity of 0.6 Mt. Thus, the company’s aggregate annual white cement capacity is 1.2 Mt.

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JK cement was one of the first cement producers to install a Waste Heat Recovery plant in India and has repeatedly won awards for its environmental and sustainability management.

“It is deeply encouraging to see the magnitude of change around us, as the Government of India is driving large-scale infrastructure programs across sectors such as real estate, ports, roadways and energy. We believe it is an exciting time for us to contribute to the nation’s progress and we are growing capacities, expanding reach, improving operational efficiencies and strengthening the reputation and recall of our brand”, said Mr. Yadupati Singhania, Chairman and Managing Director at JK Cement.

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cement orders & equipment

O

rders & equipment

Shree Cement orders dryer from Gebr.

Pfeiffer

Indian producer Shree Cement acquired a TRT Triplex dryer from German equipment maker Gebr. Pfeiffer.

The TRT 5000/8.0 Triplex dryer will be the first of its kind to be delivered to the Indian market.

Shree Cement uses flue gas desulphurization gypsum, a leftover from its captive coal-fired power plants, as an additive on cement production. However, its moisture content may reach as much as 20 percent, forcing the company to use it wet or slightly dried on site.

With the new TRT Triplex dryer, the company will be able to reduce the moisture content to less than two per-

cent. This allows Shree Cement to transport dried gypsum to other facili-

ties across India without carrying unnecessary water.

Ghorahi Cement orders new mill from Gebr. Pfeiffer The new MVR 5600 R-4 mill has the capacity to produce 525 tons per hour of cement raw material. With a grinding bowl diameter of 5.6 meters it will be by far the largest cement mill to be installed in Nepal.

Nepalese cement maker Ghorahi Cement ordered a new cement mill from Gebr.

Pfeiffer to be installed at its cement plant

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in Ghorahi, at the foot of the Himalayas, as part of its expansion works.

India Cement and Construction Materials Journal

Apart from grinding and separating the materials, the mill will also simultaneously dry the feed material to a moisture content of under six percent. Moreover, Gebr.

Pfeiffer will also supply an MPS 250 BK coal mill capable of handling the more abrasive Indian coal.

Loesche to supply vertical roller mill to Flying Cement The raw material mill will be used in the FCCL cement plant in Mangowal in the heart of the province of Punjab, where it will grind 600 t/h of cement raw material.

In the Khushab plant, the Flying Cement Company mainly produces Ordinary Portland Cement (OPC).

Loesche has received the order for the delivery of a vertical roller mill for a new 7,000 t/d production line

from the Flying Cement Company Ltd (FCCL) based in the Pakistani city of Lahore.

Along with the mill, the scope of supply also includes a Hurriclon system from ATEC, a member of the Loesche Group, for separating finished material from the gas flow leaving the mill. The benefits of the patented Hurriclons compared to conventional cyclone separators are in the reduction of pressure losses by 30% and more, which results in a much lower electrical energy demand for the mill fan. Not least the space requirement for the product separation is considerably reduced thanks to the very compact construction of the Hurriclons.

Commissioning is expected to take place at the end of 2018.

ABB upgrading Tan Thang Cement with digital automation Zürich-based ABB was contracted by Vietnamese manufacturer Tan Thang Cement Company to install an additional integrated digital automation and electrical equipment solution to the latter’s cement plant in Nghe An province.

“We are aiming to have the most modern cement production plant, equipped with the latest digital technology, that will help us to achieve our production and efficiency goals,” said Hoang Anh Tuan, general director of Tan Thang Cement.

The order includes a 110kV AIS Substation (Air Insulated Substation), with a SCADA (Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition) system based on ABB AbilityTM System 800xA for Power Control, as well as telecommunications, and High Voltage primary and secondary equipment.

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cement Regional news

R

egional news

Penna Cement launches IPO to fund expansion

The Indian cement manufacturer Penna Cement is looking to secure INR 1,550 crore through an initial public offer that will be used to finance its expansion plans, from the current 10 million tons of cement production per annum to 16.5 million tons by 2020.

The offer is composed by a fresh issue of INR 1,300 crore and an offer for sale of up to INR 250 crore made available by the company’s promoter PR Cement Holdings.

Currently, Penna Cement’s production units are concentrated in the states of Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, and Maharashtra. The company plans to invest INR 3,500 crore in the construction of new facilities in Odisha and Kolkata, opening the door to the northern and eastern markets.

Birla Corporation achieves strong performance in 3Q2018 During the third quarter of 2018, Birla Corporation achieved encouraging results after the consolidation of RCCPL, its subsidiary, previously known as Reliance Cement Company.

The company registered a strong growth in its volume of sales and an improvement in price realization in the Central

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Region, primarily in the state of Uttar Pradesh, its core market. To the East, RCCPL managed to keep its position in a relatively flat market, while to the North, where the market remains soft, the company was able to mitigate the impact of cost escalations an low realization through cost reduction initiatives and market optimization measures.

Ramco Cements expands the Jayanthipuram cement plant The company has set aside INR 850 crore for the expansion of the Jayanthipuram cement plant, in the state of Andhra Pradesh. Around 1.5 million tons of annual capacity will be added to the factory.

HeidelbergCement India confident on demand growth

availability are now reaching for the market.

HeidelbergCement India is optimistic regarding cement demand in the country.

Cooper expects cement demand to grow by 7.5 percent in 2018-19, as housing and irrigation projects continue to sprout across the country.

Jamshed Naval Cooper, managing director and chief executive of HeidelbergCement India, believes that cement demand will continue to improve, as builders that delayed their projects over problems with sand

“Considering the demand was low base last year, there is a little bit of improvement in the retail segment also. So, housing sector and the retail, which we call IHB (individual house builders), is looking little stronger now”, Cooper said.

Profits fall in the Pakistani cement sector

Ramco Cements is currently ramping up its grinding capacity from 16.5 million to 20 million tons, with the expansion expected to be completed

by March 2020.

Under the expansion plans, Ramco will boost the capacity of the Kolaghat, West Bengal and Visakhapatnam, Odisha by nearly one million tons per annum each, on top of the Jayanthipuram expansion project. Moreover, the latter will also be fitted with a 27-megawatt waste heat recovery system.

Cement consumption surges in Vietnam Between January and October 2018, Vietnamese cement makers dispatched 85.23 million tons of cement – including domestic shipments and exports – an increase of 41 percent compared to the same period last year.

Overall profits in the Pakistani cement sector plunged by over a third in the third quarter.

The combined profits of Pakistan’s cement industry dropped to PKR 8.54 billion during the third quarter of 2018, a decline of 38 percent compared to PKR 13.75 billion in the same period last year. For the fifth consecutive quarter, profits in the sector have declined, as the gross margin

of the sector fell to 24 percent, the lowest figure of the last six years, mainly due to higher production costs.

The figures presented are based of 15 listed cement producers, out of a total of 17 in the country. Analysts believe that the sector’s profit margin will likely stabilize now that it is close to the regional average of 20-25 percent.

During those 10 months, exports surged by 65 percent year-on-year, to 26.05 million tons. In October alone, Vietnam exported 2.66 million tons, compared to just 460,000 tons a year ago.

Both overall consumption and exports have already surpassed the full-year target for 2018. In the beginning of the year, the Vietnamese government was expecting 83-85 million tons of overall consumption and just 18-19 million tons of exports.

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Flashback NEWS FLOW IN CEMWEEK.COM LAST TWO MONTHS (darker blue shows higher news volume)

Russia 23 articles France 12 articles United States 24 articles

Turkey 15 articles Egypt 37 articles

Mexico 21 articles

Pakistan 32 articles Philippines 19 articles

Nigeria 28 articles

Indonesia 18 articles

Kenya 12 articles

Brazil 19 articles

cw Research agenda / reports The CW Research will be hosting and participating in a number of webinars and conferences. We invite you to join us on-line or in person at the events to discuss our views of the industry. To learn more, please visit https://www.cwgrp.com/research/webinars-and-meetings

CW Research's meeting agenda includes: November 29, 2018

CW Research's newest reportS:

World Energy Status and Outlook Webinars

World Natural and Oman Cement Synthetic Graphite Market Report Market Demand Forecast Report September 2018

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October 2018

Global Cement Trade Price Report

October 2018

BUZZ

economic

waste

global portland

materials

concrete

industrial activity

1.

Cement prices rise in Kerala, India

2.

Cement prices remain lukewarm in India

3.

NCL Industries (India) produces more cement in 3Q2018

4.

Spot power prices continue to increase in India

5.

Cement prices decline in India, October 2018

6.

Cement demand expands in South India

growth exports

1h2016

results

INDIA

region economic development

imports russia

using

output

materials results

investment

ministry products

slag

sold

coke

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industrial

FACTORY

recorded

power reach

short thermal volume

IRAN

large

produce

refinery

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exports consumption crore

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recorded

IRAN

Synthetic graphite to lead world graphite demand by 2023 2. Rusal’s net profit surges in 9M2018 3. India’s aluminum sector to be negatively affected by petcoke ruling 4. CW Research: China’s uncalcined petroleum coke production falls in September 5. Alumina prices affect Alba’s profits in third quarter 6. Chinese petcoke prices inch up further 7. CW Research: China’s imports of uncalcined petcoke fall in March 8. Goa Carbon closes calcining plant for maintenance 9. China: Prices for petcoke remain unchanged 10. McDermott supplying delayed coker unit for Russia facility

petroleum

vietnam

produce

1.

imports

LAFARGE

increased

decline

Saudi cement makers sell more cement in September 2018 2. Cement sales rise in Pakistan, September 2018 3. Cement demand grows in Portugal 4. Cement production declines in Russia 5. Cement demand to grow slower in Spain 6. Cement sales decline in Switzerland, 3Q2018 7. Cement sales decline in Puerto Rico, September 2018 8. Saudi cement makers sell more cement in September 2018 9. Cement demand growns in Novosibirsk Oblast, Russia 10. Vietnam's cement exports rise in volume and revenue

TOP petcokeweek STORIES

saudi

india

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GLOBAL

lafargeholcim short

GRANITE

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TOP BMWeek STORIES 1.

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Vulcan’s net earnings rise in third quarter Lithuanian researchers develop new concrete using industrial waste 3. Boral selling assets in the US 4. BASF Construction Chemicals opens lab in Dubai 5. Green Minerals develops new way to incorporate CO2 into concrete production 6. UK: Construction activity in London remains unchanged in third quarter 7. Turkey’s construction sector reels from economic crisis 8. UK: Scotland’s construction sector benefitting from housebuilding works 9. European companies recycling construction waste 10. Irish construction activity slows down in September

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cement market forecast report and outlook

GLOBAL CEMENT VOLUME FORECAST REPORT The Global Cement Volume Forecast Report (GCVFR) is a twice-yearly, data-oriented forecast report, providing extensive details on the global outlook as well as key cement markets worldwide.

The benchmark report provides a five-year outlook on cement consumption, production, net-trade, cement production capacity and other key cement metrics that decision makers cannot live without. The GCVFR is built with investment-grade analytical rigor, informing industry professionals about what is expected around the corner for world cement markets. visit: http://goo.gl/eib8fE Our global presence: Greenwich (US) • Mumbai (IN) • Porto (PT) • Bucharest (RO) • Sao Paulo (BR)

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