SEOUL SEARCHING
CHACR COMMENTARY // DECEMBER 2024
BY: Major Rocco P. Santurri III, freelance author and reservist in the US Army
DEMOCRATIC FRAGILITY & THE CIVIL-MILITARY DIVIDE IN KOREA
Events in South Korea continue to develop quickly and unpredictably. The following CHACR Commentary, written from the Republic, reflects the situation as of the 11th December.
IT has been an historic week in South Korea (ROK). It began with a shocking announcement; shortly before midnight on Tuesday, 3rd December, President Yoon declared martial law throughout the ROK to protect against “the threat of North Korean communist forces”. Neither friend nor foe alike anticipated this development. President Yoon also cited current budgetary issues in the National Assembly as another reason to necessitate martial law. ROK military forces were ordered to the National Assembly to prevent parliamentarians from gaining access and voting down the decree. Korean law required a two-thirds majority with a minimum of 150 voters to overturn President Yoon’s decision. Protesters
immediately swarmed to the National Assembly and clashed with ROK soldiers. In an image that encapsulated the chaotic and surreal scene, an opposition party spokesperson grabbed the barrel of a weapon carried by a soldier while shouting “aren’t you ashamed?”. The chaos caused by the protesters provided a valuable distraction for the cause of democracy. Climbing over fences and through broken windows, 190 parliamentarians, determined to protect their republic, bypassed the security cordon and gained access to the National Assembly. Parliamentarians hastily called a vote and struck down martial law by a 190-0 tally. Significantly, members from both major political parties, the ruling People Power Party (PPP) and the opposition Together Democratic Party (DP), participated in the vote. Shortly afterwards, ROK military personnel began leaving the National Assembly.
Such a show of force supporting
democracy presented a fait accompli to President Yoon. Within hours, he again addressed the country after ordering ROK military forces to withdraw. He cited internal political issues and implored the National Assembly to end budget disagreements and impeachment proceedings against his party. He did not mention any change in the “threat” posed by North Korean communist forces, which he claimed was the rationale for martial law. Shortly after an emergency session of President Yoon’s Cabinet, martial law was officially lifted. By perilously slim margins, democracy in Korea avoided its demise and trudged onward, determined but wobbly, into the 4th December.
The fallout from six hours of martial law commenced instantaneously. Further events unfolded and new revelations shed light on President Yoon’s decisionmaking process that led to martial law. The ROK Minister of Defence, Kim Yong Hyun, resigned, while the entire Yoon Cabinet submitted
resignation letters. Allegedly, Kim was a main proponent of the idea; one year senior to President Yoon, he exercised his influence to guide the ultimate decision. This allegation may have been his rationale for his abrupt resignation and current imprisonment. The US State Department quickly released a statement early on the 4th expressing its “relief” that martial law had ended and its expectation that ROK political disagreements will be “resolved peacefully by the Rule of Law”. In an ominous omission, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken also admitted that President Yoon did not notify the US before he announced martial law. Long-time Korean observers declared the
omission an egregious concern for the ROK-US alliance. Pyongyang no doubt kept a watchful eye on developments, keen to exploit any opportunity against its enemies to the south, but made no statements and took no action.
On Saturday, 7th December the world witnessed impeachment proceedings in the National Assembly. The DP needed only eight votes from the PPP to reach the required 200 votes to impeach President Yoon. However, the anticipation of an impeachment quickly evaporated as all PPP Parliamentarians dramatically walked out of the National Assembly before the vote. The DP went ahead and slow-rolled the vote of the remaining DP parliamentarians for maximum media effect. Still, the outcome was a foregone conclusion to the disappointment of thousands of protesters outside the National Assembly and those watching on TV throughout the ROK. Despite the setback, protesters vowed to keep up the pressure, an unsurprising commitment given President Yoon’s historically low approval ratings even before the developments over the past seven days.
As of Monday, 9th December, the dominoes continued to fall. Defence Minister Kim Yong Hyun was arrested, while President Yoon was forbidden to leave the country courtesy of an imposition by the ROK Justice Department. Prime Minister Han Duck-soo announced President Yoon would no longer run Korean state affairs. However, immediate challenges to the legality of such an arrangement were submitted, and the matter remains under dispute, as the ROK constitution prohibits replacing a President outside of resignation or impeachment. Undeterred, the DP has vowed to initiate impeachment proceedings daily until President Yoon is no longer in office. These developments and disputes have contributed to widespread concerns among the South Korean populace about
who is currently running the government.
From an adversarial standpoint, any perception of disruption or confusion in the South Korean chain of command would be an enticing observation for North Korea. How Kim Jongun responds to current affairs remains to be seen. On the 11th December, North Korea released a statement on the turmoil in the ROK, decrying “the shocking incident of the puppet Yoon Suk Yeol regime... suddenly declaring a martial law decree and unhesitatingly wielding the guns and knives of its fascist dictatorship wrought havoc across South Korea”. While North Korea has shown no signs of taking action, the warning should be clear to observers worldwide; internal dysfunction can give the perception, or reveal the reality, of weakened military readiness, which might be too tempting for an opportunistic adversary to pass up.
Additionally, current events in the ROK pose another stark reminder to the global defence community. President Yoon’s weaponisation of martial law powers to combat strictly domestic issues with an opposing political party is a dangerous abuse every democracy should be on guard against. The US has certainly not been immune to such concerns. President Trump was accused of politicising the US military during his first term, notably when he walked to St. John’s Church from the White House for a photo opportunity that included General Mark Milley, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Made worse was how security used non-lethal ammunition and smoke canisters to disperse mostly peaceful protesters, exercising their right to assemble. General Milley later apologised, stating that he “should not have been there” and that his presence “created a perception of the military in domestic politics”. During his recent campaign, President-Elect Trump vowed to fire “woke generals”, with major media outlets reporting
“FROM AN ADVERSARIAL STANDPOINT, ANY PERCEPTION OF DISRUPTION OR CONFUSION IN THE SOUTH KOREAN CHAIN OF COMMAND WOULD BE AN ENTICING OBSERVATION FOR NORTH KOREA”
that “warrior boards” would be created to fulfil his vow. Whether this comes to fruition or remains campaign speech rhetoric is unknown.
Nevertheless, a danger still lurks. The appearance of politicisation can lessen the trust of a populace in its military to stay above the domestic political fray. Recruitment efforts could also be affected, which poses a grave concern for large, volunteer-based militaries such as the US, and those with low birthrates, such as the ROK. It is such warnings that Seoul should carefully heed while attempting to repair the damage caused over the past week to its civil-military relations; it is a task made more difficult by painful memories of martial law, military coups and military rule in its notso-distant past.
It is worth noting that current information regarding the chaotic state of affairs in South Korea should be considered speculative. Undoubtedly, the DP will insist upon a comprehensive investigation to uncover the circumstances and events that led to the fateful and politically catastrophic events of 3rd December. Regardless of the investigation’s outcome, it is difficult to dispute the reputational and geopolitical damage already done to President Yoon, the PPP and the ROK. It is unknown if the ROK will experience economic issues as foreign investors become wary of its political stability. North Korea also might see the current events as an opportunity to further its
interests at the expense of its southern neighbour. Additionally, psychological distress caused to ROK civilians, especially those alive during the events of the 1980s, could prove to be devastating and long-lasting.
Lastly, there is concern in Western circles that a swing in power to the DP could affect the ROK-US alliance or even the status of the United Nations Command. While the latter seems improbable, the former deserves consideration. Historically, the DP has been less supportive of the alliance and more amenable to reconciliation with North Korea. Trepidation of the DP conflating current domestic political issues with PPP support for the ROK-US alliance remains a possibility that bears watching. How those potential policy views interact with the incoming Trump administration could be a cause for concern, given President-Elect Trump’s repeated accusations that Seoul does not pay its fair share for the robust US presence on the Peninsula. However, like other factors related to events this past week, that too remains to be seen as significant developments materialise daily. Nevertheless, observers can draw meaningful conclusions from an historic and chaotic week in the usually calm backwaters of post-1997 ROK domestic politics. In an increasingly complex and multi-polar geopolitical world, democracy remains fragile and history unpredictable, even in a stable and long-tenured Western partner such as the ROK.