Asian Power (October to December 2020)

ISSUE 98 | DISPLAY TO 28 FEBRUARY 2021 | www.asian-power.com | A Charlton Media Group publication

THE POWER OF

DIVERSITY B.GRIMM CHAIRMAN HARALD LINK ON THE COMPANY’S MULTIPLE GREENFIELD PROJECTS

IS IT ALREADY “GAME OVER” FOR COAL IN ASIA? THAILAND’S NEW GOLDEN AGE OF BIOGAS CHINA’S QUEST FOR CLEANER ENERGY CONTINUES WHY MICROGRIDS ARE ATTRACTING MAJOR ATTENTION

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FROM THE EDITOR

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he last issue of Asian Power for 2020 tackles the future of coal consumption amidst the push for renewables in Asia Pacific. Despite the overall energy demand growth in the region, reports expect that coal demand will drop by 15% in 2050. Flip over to page 8 to know more.

PUBLISHER & EDITOR-IN-CHIEF Tim Charlton MANAGING EDITOR Paul Howell PRODUCTION EDITOR Janine Ballesteros PRODUCTION TEAM Beatrix Malesido Djan Magbanua

We also took a look on China, which possesses about half of the world’s installed coal-fired capacity, but pledged to be carbon neutral by 2060. Find out more about the country’s journey towards a greener future on page 10.

Mary Claire Mercado GRAPHIC ARTIST Mark Simon Engracial II ADVERTISING CONTACT Reiniela Hernandez reiniela@charltonmediamail.com

ADMINISTRATION Accounts Department accounts@charltonmediamail.com ADVERTISING advertising@charltonmediamail.com EDITORIAL ap@charltonmedia.com

We also sat down with B.Grimm’s Chairman who shared how the company pioneered Thailand’s private power generation industry, key strategies in B.Grimm’s achievements, and how the company has “empowered the world compassionately”.

Read more on what he has to say on page 12.

Start flipping the pages and enjoy!

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ASIAN POWER 1

CONTENTS

08

10

INTERVIEW 12 CEO B.GRIMM’S COMMITMENT TO EMPOWERING THE WORLD

FIRSTS 06 China key in driving renewables growth 06 Thailand to enter biogas golden age in 2021 07 Asia gears up for energy transition 07 SEA wind power needs $14b new investments by 2030

SECTOR REPORT 08 Coal demand falls as Asia shifts to renewables

Published Bi-monthly on the Second week of the Month by Charlton Media Group 101 Cecil St. #17-09 Tong Eng Building Singapore 069533

SECTOR REPORT COAL DEMAND FALLS AS ASIA SHIFTS TO RENEWABLES

COUNTRY REPORT CHINA’S BIG LEAP TOWARDS RENEWABLES

COUNTRY REPORT 10 China’s big leap towards renewables

CEO INTERVIEW 12 B.Grimm’s commitment to empowering the world

OPINION 16 Microgrids: Helping to bring reliable, accessible and clean energy to Asia

For the latest news on Asian power and energy, visit the website

www.asian-power.com

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News from asian-power.com Daily news from Asia MOST READ

PROJECTS

Wärtsilä to build 90MW energy storage system in SEA Finnish Wärtsilä will build a 90MW energy storage system in SEA. The system includes Wärtsilä’s GridSolv Max which would give flexible and modular storage for core hardware assets within Wärtsilä energy storage systems, including batteries, a safety and fire system, and inverters.

PROJECTS

South Australia unveils plan for $240m green ammonia plant South Australia launched the new $240m H2U Eyre Peninsula Gateway Hydrogen Project expected to be the largest ammonia plant across the globe. The first stage of the project is the installation of a 75MW electrolyser, which can produce enough hydrogen to create 40,000 tonnes of ammonia annually.

4 ASIAN POWER

DEALS

Sarawak Energy secures $24.13m SLL from CIMB Sarawak Energy has secured an RM100m (US$24.13m) sustainability-linked loan (SLL) in the form of a revolving credit facility from CIMB. It is the first East Malaysian company and the first utility company in Malaysia to acquire a loan linked to measurable sustainability performance targets.

PROJECTS

New 16MW gas plant nears completion in Myanmar Cummins Inc. has revealed the installation of Cummins QSV91G leanburn gas generators at a new 16MW power plant in Dawei, Myanmar. The Myanmar government has tapped into Petro & Trans Co to construct a 16MW gas-powered plant in the southeastern city of Dawei.

REGULATION

Singapore approves $49m funding for low-carbon energy research Singapore announced a Low-Carbon Energy Research Funding Initiative worth $49m, which will support research, development, and demonstration projects in low-carbon energy technologies such as hydrogen; and carbon capture, utilisation, and storage over the next five years.

DEALS

Osotspa seals deal with Cleantech Solar for 3 MW solar PV system Thai manufacturer and distributor Osotspa entered into an agreement with Cleantech Solar for a combined 3 MW solar PV system, installed in Osotspa’s five factories across Thailand.

After completion, the PV systems will generate approximately 4,300 MWh of clean electricity in the first year.

FIRST However, it proved to be a challenging business model as there was “a perceived higher technology risk.” According to Godenhielm, “making and selling electricity is quite straightforward, whereas banks were not familiar with the CBG business model.”

The off-take is also more difficult, Godenhielm added, though he noted that due to successful demonstration plants, growth is sure to follow.

X CHINA KEY IN DRIVING SOUTHEAST ASIA RENEWABLES GROWTH CHINA

Dr Bikal Kumar Pokharel, Wood Mackenzie China is driving wind and solar development

China is amongst the key drivers of renewable energy development globally, particularly for wind and solar PV, reports data and analytics firm GlobalData.

Wind is expected to make up 13.4% of the global energy mix by 2030, whilst solar PV is expected to represent 16.6%.

Overall, GlobalData expects wind and solar PV technologies to continue to grow during the 2021 to 2030 period, with reduced costs encouraging more projects to be set up in the coming years.

The adoption of renewables by countries that had not used these resources before will further drive uptake of wind and solar energy sources globally, GlobalData added.

Other key drivers include the US and Europe.

Latin America is also reportedly sufficiently prepared to take on a crucial role in climate change and renewable power development.

“The rapid growth of renewables across the Latin American region has boosted its efforts in achieving a low-carbon economy and it is expected that this region will see renewables representing 67% of its energy mix by 2030,” the report noted.

Furthermore, technological innovations have led to increased efficiency and decreased costs, fostering grid competitiveness of renewables.

“With its competitive pricing and stable policy support, the wind power market is thriving and has achieved grid parity in most countries.

Technological advancements have opened the way for more effective and reliable equipment and machinery, hence making wind the fastest-growing energy source across the world, according to Sneha Susan Elias, senior analyst of power at GlobalData.

Modern technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning (ML), and blockchain are also being adopted by the power industry, especially by utilities and power system companies. The technologies will play an important role in improving demand predictions, generation predictions from non-dispatchable resources such as wind and solar, as well as wholesale price predictions.

“Their role in understanding how changes to one part of the system would affect the system as a whole is also important to reduce the impact of outages and disconnections. In the meanwhile, blockchain is effective for when companies have shared infrastructure,” said Elias. “For example, Electron and EDF have brought peer-to-peer electricity transactions to a block of flats in London that has solar panels, owned by the landlord and installed on the roof,” she added.

6 ASIAN POWER

Looming golden age During his speaking session, Godenhielm used one of RE Power Group’s projects— an anaerobic reactor that turned a starch factory’s wastes into value by converting the biogas into bioelectricity or biofuel— as an example of why biogas innovations were important.

He mentioned a factory’s open ponds, which are a series of lagoons where a factory wastes’ stay for almost half a year. The wastewater in these ponds are cleaned through anaerobic Gas plants are likely to be uneconomic soon digestion, though the process produces a tremendous amount of smell and methane emissions.

Through an anaerobic reactor, the factory will save about $25m and reduce carbon emissions by almost 4 million tonnes. Moreover, throughout its lifetime, THAILAND the anaerobic reactor will clean about 50 hailand will enter a new golden The golden age billion litres of wastewater. age for biogas in 2021, claims RE will follow a “In very simple terms, every single Power Group’s managing director stagnation in Gustaf Godenhielm at the Asian Power Thailand’s biogas dollar invested in biogas reduces Virtual Conference 2020. sector from 2014 emissions by 0.4 tonnes—there’s no other renewable energy that comes close in this The so-called golden age will follow a to 2020 kind of savings,” explained Godenhielm. stagnation in the Thai biogas sector from Projects such as these are part of RE 2014 to 2020, which was caused by the Power Group’s new alternative energy sudden unavailability of the very small development targets, comprising PPAs for power producer (VSPP) programme in wastewater-produced biogas (183MW November 2014. Under that programme, at about $500m), Napier grass-produced Thailand has been a pioneer in the biogas biogas (600MW at about $1.8b), hybrids sector across ASEAN for there were (550MW at about $1b), and biomass generous tax incentives as well as non-firm (600MW at about $1.2b). guaranteed off-take for the VSPPs. Due Bidding for new PPAs, particularly for to this, Thailand’s biogas market boomed, Napier grass-produced biogas, will begin with approximately 400MW of biogas in the first quarter of 2021, Godenhielm projects selling electricity to the grid built said.The PPAs will have a 20-year tenor by the end of 2014. and will be priced at 0.16 cents per kWh (indexed to inflation). Moreover, there Stagnation of the Thai biogas market will also be 10.15% revenue sharing with The VSPP programme, however, was the community. no longer available to new projects in November 2014; whilst the ongoing projects can continue, the new ones could “simply not sell electricity to the grid, there was no power purchase agreement (PPA) offered,” Godenhielm said.

Between 2014 to 2020, Thailand’s biogas market saw only a few projects per year.

“Agro factories which didn’t have biogas yet didn’t have bankable off-take, so new business models emerged,” commented Godenhielm.

Thailand pioneered compressed biogas REPG managing director, Gustaf Goldenheim (CBG), a form of renewable natural gas.

Thailand to enter biogas golden age in 2021

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FIRST The Asia region is expected to be more susceptible to climate change impacts than the rest of the world

By 2027, 58 greenfield coal projects will have come online

Asia gears up for energy transition INDONESIA

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hilst it is no secret that climate change will severely impact the world and Asia, it will also be an “exciting time” for energy players. McKinsey & Company partner Michele Pani divulged the gist of energy transition in the Asia Pacific, as well as what it holds for energy companies.

The next decade will prove to be vital in decarbonising and preparing for unavoidable hazards, as according to Pani, the world is more or less going at a rate of 40Gt carbon dioxide emissions per year.

“If we want to stay in control, we have a more or less budget of 500Gt, and 10 years to work on it,” he stressed.

Energy transition is at the core of the response to climate change, further accelerated by COVID-19, and it can be achieved if the region reduces its power demand via efficiency gains, process optimisation, and shifts in consumption patterns. Moreover, the region can also change its sources of power by electrifying transport, buildings, industrial processes, deploying renewables, expanding the role of hydrogen within the power mix, and increasing the use of bioenergy.

Other steps that can be taken include scaling carbon management, curbing deforestation, removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, and tackling methane and nitrous oxide issues through

reformation of agriculture systems, as well as elimination of fugitive emissions.

Impact on Asia Whilst Asia sits at the outset of energy transition, Pani notes that momentum is building, even in developing economies.

Countries are raising their renewables aspirations, and some—such as Indonesia—are working on electrifying their transport systems.

However, Asia can be more severely affected by climate change than the rest of the world. These include GDP suffering due to decreasing labour productivity in outdoor industries, and some land areas possibly experiencing biome shifts.

Factors and barriers in energy transition Unlocking the value from energy transition will require energy players to play a catalyst role, said Pani.

Beyond the power sector, pressure also comes from other stakeholders such as investors opting to choose to put their money into green alternatives instead of coal. Moreover, there is also a “war for talent,” wherein younger people will only join purposeful organisations and not those with a “dirty” footprint.

“In fact, some of the oil and gas companies, especially in this region, started to think about renewables, not only for environmental reasons, but to attract the next generation of talents,” Pani said.

Despite the momentum towards energy transition, there are still some barriers needed to be addressed, such as technology limitations, negative overall economic cases, supply chain constraints, unfavourable regulations, and customer preferences, as well as lack of awareness

VIETNAM

SEA wind power needs $14b new investments by 2030

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outheast Asia’s wind power will require at least $14b investments by 2030, energy research & consultancy WoodMackenzie said. Power demand is said to be recovering, and Southeast Asian countries will be competing to attract large-scale investments to spur economic recovery. This is said to provide opportunities for governments to push ahead with their new national power plans with expanded roles for more renewables.

The investments will support 8.9 gigawatts (GW) of new wind power capacity that is expected to be added between 2020 and 2029.

With a population over 650 million and average annual power demand growing at 8% until 2030, Southeast Asia is said to be one of the world’s fastest growing power markets. To support this growth, governments around the region are setting renewable energy targets to diversify their energy mix and be more energy self-sufficient.

“Currently there are about 20.7 GW of planned wind power capacity in the pipeline, but we think less than half or 8.9 GW will be realised by 2030.

The pandemic has slowed development in 2020, as border closures delay equipment transportation and prevent foreign technical staff support in these nascent Southeast Asian markets,” said Wood Mackenzie principal analyst Robert Liew.

To date, Vietnam is leading in Southeast Asia’s race to add wind power capacity, accounting for 66% of new capacity that is expected to be added by the end of the decade.

“Vietnam has risen to become the shining star in the race to add wind power capacity. It alone accounts for 66% of new capacity expected to be added by the end of the decade,”added Liew.

The surge in Vietnam projects is mainly driven by its government’s decision to upgrade the wind feed-intariff (FIT) in 2018 to $85/MWh for onshore wind and $98/MWh for intertidal offshore wind with a 2021 deadline for both FITs. “There is potential for more upside if Malaysia and Myanmar start utility-scale wind development and offshore wind development occurs in markets outside Vietnam,” Liew said.

Vietnam is leading wind energy generation in Asia

ASIAN POWER 7

SECTOR REPORT: COAL

Coal demand is set to drop by 15% over the next 30 years

Coal demand falls as Asia shifts to renewables However, actual coal consumption is still likely to increase in at least nine Asia Pacific economies

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sia Pacific’s energy demand is expected to increase by 22% through 2050 in a world with a business as usual (BAU) scenario. However, despite this overall energy demand growth, coal demand (TPES) is projected to drop by 15%, according to the APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook. The absolute decline in coal is consistent with the slowing demand for it.

However, the declining trend is not consistent across all economies. In nine of the 21 APEC economies, coal consumption is expected to increase from 2016 to 2050.

Coal demand (TPES) will rise almost threefold in Southeast Asia from 124 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) in 2016 to 344 Mtoe in 2050. For China, the largest coal-consuming economy, domestic policies will see coal demand peak and then fall to 25% lower in 2050 than in 2016.

“The BAU scenario traces a trajectory for coal demand to 2050 should the world continue to develop with limited additional policy interventions,” according to the Asia Pacific Energy Research’s (APERC) Coal Report 2020. “Two alternative scenarios outline what’s required to meet the challenge of a lower emitting, lower pollution, energy system: the APEC Target scenario assumes that APEC economies increase their efforts to reduce energy intensity by 45% between 2005 and 2035 8 ASIAN POWER

and double the share of renewables in the energy mix from 2010 to 2030.”

In that scenario, APEC energy demand will increase by 7% out to 2050 as opposed to 22% in the BAU. The lower overall energy demand and an increased share of renewables means that coal is displaced, particularly in the power sector, declining by 28% in 2050, relative to 2016.

Coal consumption in Asian countries Japan’s coal consumption will gradually decrease through 2040, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said.

Japan is the largest coal consumer in OECD Asia, accounting for nearly half or approximately 5 quadrillion Btu of the region’s total coal consumption in 2012.

Coal use in Japan in year 2012 was split almost evenly between the electric power and industrial sectors, which together accounted for nearly all of the coal consumption in the region.

Despite a temporary increase in coal use following the shutdown of nuclear power plants after the Fukushima disaster in 2011, a shift towards renewable energy and natural gas for electricity generation has reduced the electric power sector’s demand for coal after 2015. Industrial sector use of coal will begin to drop after 2020 mainly as a result of reductions in steel output as Japan’s population and domestic demand decline.

China’s coal consumption has been slowing down since the peak of 2012

Meanwhile, South Korea’s coal consumption will increase from 3 quadrillion Btu in 2012 to more than 4 quadrillion Btu in 2040. Coal consumption will rise steadily in the country’s industrial sector, driven by steel production.

Further, coal consumption in the electric power sector, which accounted for 62% of total coal consumption in 2012, will advance strongly as a result of significant growth of the coal-fired generating fleet in response to the government’s focus on thermal power expansion. As nuclear and renewable power capacity grows, coal consumption for electricity generation will decrease in the medium term before recovering gradually after 2030, when the nuclear power expansion tapers off.

Meanwhile, China and India are the top two coal consumers in non-OECD Asia.

India, the second largest coal user in the region, will account for nearly half of the increase in coal consumption from 2012 to 2040, whilst China will contribute less than one-third to coal consumption.

China is the leading consumer of coal in the world, having used 76 quadrillion Btu of coal in 2012—one-half of the world’s coal consumption and more than four times as much as the United States.

After rapid growth from 2003 to 2011, China’s coal consumption began to slow in 2012. The slowing trend continues into the

APERC Coal Report 2020 Figure 1.4 displays the magnitude of China’s coal consumption and coal production relative to the

rest of APEC. China’s large appetite for coal has outpaced its ability to produce enough coal

SECTOR REPORT: COAL

domestically since 2006. The shortfall in 2017 amounted to 167 Mtoe (8.6% of China’s coal demand), which was met via imports, and residual inventories.

APEC coal and production, 2000-2017 Figure 1.4: demand Global coal demand (TPES) and production by region, 2000–2017 Mtoe

3,500

Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation economies

3,000 2,500

Total APEC coal production

Rest of APEC coal demand (TPES)

2,000 1,500 1,000

China coal production

China coal demand (TPES)

500 0

India

TPES

Mtoe

400 projection period as the country’s economy 300system undergo a number of and energy structural200 changes.

Production industry 100 deceleration, Economic 0 restructuring, and new energy and environmental policies have slowed the growth of coal consumption in China, Africa and cleaner use leading to500moreSouth centralised of coal. Despite rapidly rising coal prices, 400 China’s coal consumption increased by an 300 average of 9% per year (based on energy content) 200 from 2003 to 2011.

In 2012100and 2013, leaps in coal 0 were between 1% and 2%. In consumption 2014, coal consumption based on energy content was largely the same as in 2013 Source: (IEA, 2019a). APERC calculations and coal consumption in physical units dropped for the first time since 1998 as the average heat content of the coal consumed 8 increased after years of decline.

The coal imports of China also declined in 2014 for the first time since 2009, when China became a net coal importer. The sustained slowing of coal consumption growth contrasts the sustained falling of coal prices since 2012, which led to prices in 2014 that were 35% lower than prices in 2011.

The trends continued into 2015, signalling that fast-paced growth in China’s coal use may not return, and suggesting that the pattern of growth in China’s coal consumption can be changing gradually, although not necessarily implying an imminent peak in coal consumption.

Thermal and metallurgical coal Coal has two primary uses: thermal or steam for power generation and heating applications and metallurgical for steel production. According to APERC, thermal coal is still a reliable, affordable energy source for most countries in the APEC region. The share of thermal coal in the overall electricity generation mix is beginning to decline, but this is not in all economies, due to a story of relative prices—the price of thermal coal relative to alternative power and heat generation technologies.

500

European Union 28

400 Technological change, particularly for 300 alternative generation technologies, and 200 climate change mitigation are the main 100 factors influencing these relative prices and 0 constraining growth in the demand for thermal coal.

Meanwhile, relative prices are less Rest in of the influential theworld metallurgical coal market.

500 This is because there are no viable, at-scale 400 alternatives for metallurgical coal in the 300 production of steel. Some of the demand 200 for steel is met through the supply of scrap 100 metal.

But most of the demand for steel 0 requires new production, and a steady supply of metallurgical coal.

Thermal coal production in APEC reached 2,389 Mtoe in 2017, said APERC. Demand, as approximated by total primary energy supply (TPES), was lower at 2,316 Mtoe, implying that APEC is a net exporter of thermal coal to the rest of the world.

The APEC region accounted for 76% of world coal demand (TPES) in 2017. This remained steady for more than a decade, though it is considerably higher than the 62% share in 1990. In absolute terms, global coal demand (TPES) increased by 1.3% (0.9% increase in APEC) in 2017.

Economic growth and increasing urbanisation are two key demand drivers for both thermal and metallurgical coal in rapidly emerging economies like India and China, and regions like Southeast Asia.

Meanwhile, thermal coal financing is becoming increasingly difficult to secure in many economies. Certain jurisdictions are also instituting legislated phase outs of thermal coal-fired power plants. The economics of both thermal and metallurgical coal will continue to be affected by interventions that attempt to account for the cost of carbon dioxide (and equivalent) emissions and pollution.

Mtoe

500

Mtoe

Mtoe

Source: APERC Coal Report 2020

Road to 2040 Coal remains the second largest energy source worldwide—behind petroleum and other liquids—until 2030, the EIA said in the International Energy Outlook 2016 (IEO2016) reference case. From 2030

Coal will be the third largest energy source, behind both liquid fuels and natural gas from 2030 through 2040

through 2040, coal will be the third largest energy source, behind both liquid fuels and natural gas. World coal consumption rises from 2012 to 2040 at an average rate of 0.6% per year, from 153 quadrillion Btu in 2012 to 169 quadrillion Btu in 2020 and to 180 quadrillion Btu in 2040, the study added.

EIA’s estimates do not include the effect of the recently finalized Clean Power Plan (CPP) regulations in the United States, which will reduce world coal consumption to 165 quadrillion Btu in 2020 and to 176 quadrillion Btu in 2040 (about 2.5% in both years), based on EIA’s analysis of the CPP proposed rule.

Over the 2012–2040 projection period, total coal consumption in the nonOrganisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries will increase by an average of 0.8% per year, compared with an average climb of 0.1% per year in the OECD countries without the US CPP and a decrease of 0.3% per year in the OECD countries with the US CPP. Throughout the projection, the top three coal-consuming countries are China, the United States, and India, which together account for more than 70% of world coal use. China accounted for 50% of world coal consumption in 2012, and its coal use continues to grow through 2025 before beginning a decline along with slower overall growth in energy consumption.

In 2040, China’s share of world coal consumption will fall to 46%.

As a result of the slower growth and decline in China’s coal use, the world coal share of total primary energy consumption will drop steadily, from 28% in 2012 to 22% in 2040—in contrast to its sustained growth from 24% in 2001 to 29% in 2009, primarily as a result of increasing coal use in China. Although coal consumption in China will not change much from 2012 to 2040, coal use in India and the other countries of nonOECD Asia is expected to rise. India’s coal use will surpass the United States’ total around 2030, and its share of world coal consumption will advance from 8% in 2012 to 14% in 2040.

EIA projects that world coal production will increase from 9 billion tonnes in 2012 to 10 billion tonnes in 2040,103 with much of the growth occurring in India, China, and Australia, added EIA. Their combined share of total world coal production will grow from 60% in 2012 to 64% in 2040, but the share of the world’s leading coal producer, China, will decline from 48% in 2012 to 44% in 2040.

In addition, the initial drop in world coal trade from 2013 to 2020 can also be attributed to projected declines in import demand for both China and India, where substantial expansion of domestic coal supplies reduces the need for imported coal.

ASIAN POWER 9

COUNTRY REPORT: CHINA

China’s big leap towards renewables Swearing to be carbon neutral by 2060, will China be able to shake off its dependence on coal?

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oal has been a major player in China’s energy generation with the country possessing about half of the world’s installed coal-fired capacity, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). The country is also considered to be the world’s biggest emitter of carbon.

In 2018, 44% of the world’s total CO2 emissions came from fossil-fuel combustions, with two-thirds emitted by coal power plants alone.

During the United Nations General Assembly in September, China pledged to be carbon neutral by 2060. President Xi Jinping said that China would “scale up its intended nationally determined contributions by adopting more vigorous policies and measures.”

However, IEA notes that it will take time for it to shake off dependence and adapt to cleaner energy.

Coal power boom in China Through increasing demand for power and heat, China’s coal-fired power capacity almost quadrupled from 222GW in 2000 to 1,007GW in 2018.

IEA’s report added that power and heat generation from coal power plants increased faster than renewables.

In 2018, coal-fired power plants generated 70% of China’s power and heat

and emitted 97% of China’s CO2 emissions from power and heat generation.

With China’s reliance on coal power, it poses a huge hurdle for the Beautiful China Initiative, which aims for the sustainable development of China as well as to fulfil the United Nations’ 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. Still, with China’s Five-Year Plan (2016- 2020) capping the installed coal-fired power capacity to 1,100GW, China should stay below the plan target by the end of the year.

China’s coal power reliance poses a huge hurdle for the sustainable development of the country

Rise of alternative energy Even before China’s commitment to be carbon neutral by 2060, they have already begun to strengthen their other sources of energy. A noticeable growth was seen in China’s solar and wind in the first half of 2020, with the photovoltaic generation capacity increased by 20% year-on-year at about 127.8 billion kWh, whilst wind power generation climbed to 10.9% at 237.9 million kWh from the same period last year.

During the first six months of 2020, the new installed capacity of photovoltaic generation in China also totaled 11.52 million kWh, whilst that of wind generation totaled 6.32 million kWh. The country’s renewable energy generation is estimated to reach 1.9 trillion kWh, or 27% of the country’s total power

China’s renewable energy generation will reach 1.9 trillion kWh or 27% of its total power generation by the end of 2020

10 ASIAN POWER

generation by the end of this year.

China is also relying on nuclear power as an energy source and is one other key component in their bid to reduce carbon emissions and lessen pollution.

China’s State Council approved the developments for four nuclear reactors in two different plants as part of the government’s aim to construct six to eight reactors a year from 2021 to 2030.

Nuclear projects account for 30% of the total value of power projects in China at the planning and construction stages, according to Fitch Solutions.

“The latest round of nuclear project approvals by the government bodes well for growth of the power sector, which we forecast to expand at an annual average of 2.5% in real terms from 2021 to 2029,” said Fitch Solutions.

Fitch Solutions also predicts that China’s nuclear capacity will double from 48GW in 2019 to 99GW by 2021 that will account for approximately around 7% of China’s total power generation.

Integration of UHV Another factor that contributes to China’s reliance on coal is the locations of most hydropower, solar and wind farms. These are located along west and northern parts of the country, whilst most of the demand is around the east coast.

COUNTRY REPORT: CHINA Support for coal power generation will wane in the coming years with China’s decarbonisation commitment and greener alternatives

Value of Power Projects in China ($m)

Source: Fitch Solutions Key Projects Database

The traditional transmission technology is not very efficient in transmitting power from these farms, so most provincial governments built thermal power plants, mostly coal, close to demand centres.

The advent of ultra-high voltage (UHV) transmissions technology is the solution that China is now looking to invest in.

It will link power generation facilities in far-flung regions to demand centres with reduced transmission losses.

UHV is one of the key investments for infrastructure in the working report of the 2020 National People’s Congress, the government’s commitment to decarbonise The projects are led by the two largest state-owned utilities, the State Grid Corporation of China (SGCC) and China Southern Power Grid (CSG).

The total value of investments made by these two companies in 2020 alone is valued at US$26.8b. With these investments, the demand for industrial metals such as steel and cooper, which are used to manufacture cables and transmission towers, will soar.

Fitch Solutions believes that there will be a greater integration of renewables once the network of UHV transmission reaches critical mass that could potentially improve profitability of clean energy plants that will replace thermal energy sources such as coal.

The emission trading scheme Back in 2017, China implemented a national emission trading scheme (ETS) to limit and reduce CO2 emissions in a cost-effective way.

It has initially covered coal and gasfired power plants and has then moved to expand to seven other sectors. This was set to start early this year, and was expected to act as an initial test to further its development.

“The initial years of operation will be crucial to test the ETS’s design and establish trust. Given the dominance of coal power in China’s power sector and in its overall CO2 emissions, how

the country’s fleet of coal-fired power plants is managed will be essential for China to meet its climate goals and other sustainable energy goals,” said IEA. In IEA’s study of China’s ETS, the energy agency pointed out a need to improve the current benchmark for coalfired power plant CO2 emissions to better reflect the expected policy ambitions regarding the existing coal plant fleet and to avoid significant overallocation of allowances, which would jeopardise the functioning of the ETS. IEA suggests to collect unit-level data and encourage units to monitor their CO2 fuel factors.

China must also adjust and strengthen its benchmark values by taking into consideration the 2020 data, including the changes in monitored units for the next compliance period, whilst integrating auctioning to create a useful revenue stream, as well as using targeted measures to address distributional issues and to guarantee power and heat security and affordability.

China also needs to define the ETS role, and develop a roadmap and timeline for a multi-step approach to merge benchmarks including other power technologies (CCUS, low-carbon and renewables); define CO2 absolute cap trajectory; and integrate more advanced ETS flexibility mechanisms, IEA added.

Recovering power demand In the first half of 2020, China’s power demand recovered slowly due to weak manufacturing activities.

“Income pressures and hygiene concerns of Chinese households will also weigh on the prospect of consumption recovery from the service sectors, including retail and catering, which will continue to operate at output levels below normal,” said Fitch Solutions.

In 2020, power demand grows at less than 1% and is only expected to recover by late 2021.

In Q1, China’s power demand

contracted by 6.5% YoY, posting the first negative quarterly growth since 2009 due to economic activities severely subdued amid the nationwide lockdown.

Industrial power consumption also recovered in March with the easing of travel restrictions along with the gradual resumption of industrial production, although the growth recovery was held back by further demand compression in the service sector in the same month, as the government continues to encourage social distancing.

Residential and agricultural power usage rose by 3.5% and 4% YoY for the Q1, but was too small in scale to overturn the overall decline.

Inland provinces saw lower demand compression than in the east.

China’s power generation narrowed by 6.8% YoY in the first quarter, restrained by the demand compression.

Wind and solar power outputs jumped by 10.4% and 20.3%, respectively, given the robust capacity installations in 2019 and the support from implementing the renewable consumption share target for each province.

Fitch Solutions predicts that hydropower supply may pick up further from its recovery in March, as the flood season began four days earlier than its historical average.

The utilisation rate of thermal power, which serves as the key fuel for load dynamic adjustment in China, will come under further pressure if hydropower generation rebounds. Coal-fired power utilisation hours declined by 153 hours YoY in Q1, against an overall decline by 104 hours.

New installations were 24% lower YoY in the first quarter, as lockdowns delayed equipment procurement and halted progress in construction.

The largest decline comes from wind whose capacity addition was down by 51% YoY, but Fitch Solutions agreed that China’s wind capacity growth is strong in this year.

“We also expect solar power installations to rebound in H2, as the deadlines to lock in subsidies for the subsidised solar projects approved in 2019 but not yet connected to the grid before end of 2019, will be extended from end-Q2. Correspondingly, the solar connection rush normally recorded in the second quarter is likely to be prolonged into third quarter,” Fitch Solutions added.

In recent years, coal power generation is resurging due to a ramp up in power demand by China’s heavy industry sector, however with China’s decarbonisation commitment as well as increased outputs of greener alternative energy, support for coal power generation is predicted to wane in the coming years.

ASIAN POWER 11

B.Grimm’s key role is to support Thailand’s economic growth by providing reliable electricity and steam to the industrial sector for more than 24 years

Harald Link Chairman B.Grimm Power 12 ASIAN POWER

CEO INTERVIEW

B.Grimm’s commitment to empowering the world The Thailand-based company says its extensive experience as a ‘real developer’ gives it an edge in the market

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hailand-based energy company B.Grimm started business in 1993 when it pioneered into Thailand’s emerging private power generation industry, with B.Grimm Power as its investment arm and in the following set up Amata B.Grimm Power. The company has pioneered a number of projects, including the largest solar farm in Southeast Asia.

“As one of the leaders in industrial power plants, our role is to support of Thailand’s economic growth by providing reliable electricity and steam to the industrial sector for more than 24 years,” said Harald Link, B.Grimm Power chairman, in an exclusive interview with Asian Power magazine.

Link shared key strategies in B.Grimm’s achievements and how the company has “empowered the world compassionately”.

Following B.Grimm’s tradition of “conducting business with compassion”, Link aims to lead the company as it operates with loving kindness, compassion, sympathetic joy, and equanimity.

“B.Grimm Power is meeting future demand by driving the development of a diverse mix of energy technologies while realising our vision of ‘Empowering the World Compassionately’,” he added.

How did you start at B.Grimm? What have been your key achievements, and can you share more about the strategies you have implemented?

B.Grimm is Thailand’s oldest business institution, and carries 142-year-old tradition of “doing business with compassion”.

I am the third generation of the Link family to work with B.Grimm. After earning an MBA from St. Gallen University in Switzerland, I joined in 1978 to learn the family business from my uncle Herbert Link, and his father, Dr Gerhard Link.

From 1981 to 1986, I worked with the company’s executive committee, and I became CEO of B.Grimm in 1987.

We started the power business, B.Grimm Power, in the 1990s, after the Thai government had opened up opportunities for the private sector.

This started with the commercial operation of the first combined-cycle cogeneration power plant in Amata Industrial Estate in 1996. It was a tough time, but we managed to survive the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, growing B.Grimm Power steadily. Today, we have 47 operating power plants with a total installed capacity of 3.0GW. Furthermore, there are several other achievements that illustrate the pioneering spirit of our team. For example, in June 2019 we successfully launched commercial operation of two large solar projects in Vietnam with a total capacity of 677MW after less than 12 months of construction.

Moreover, we launched Thailand’s first power infrastructure fund (ABPIF) in 2013 and won Thailand’s first green bond with a Climate Bond Initiative Certificate for solar projects in Thailand in 2018, as well as Thailand and CLMV’s first green loans with a Climate Bond Initiative Certificate for our solar project in Vietnam this year. In addition, at our initiation, B.Grimm Power partners with Siemens to upgrade gas turbines of our industrial power plants to improve efficiency, reduce gas consumption, and shorten maintenance period.

As for the strategies behind these achievements, B.Grimm Power has laid down strong fundamentals in place for more than 24 years. The key is our “people”.

People are our most valuable resources, and this is always emphasised by top management, especially by the Chairman and CEO. Our core values—4Ps: Positivity, Partnership, Professionalism, and Pioneering Spirit—are invariably adhered

to throughout the organisation to encourage employees to develop positive attitudes, promote teamwork, command expertise and responsibility in performing work as well as becoming proactive at work, leveraging creativity to drive the company’s vision and mission, and promoting employee engagement. Under this culture and environment, there are always opportunities for employees to unleash their potential.

The pandemic affected every sector in the world, please share how B.Grimm was challenged during these times? What have you learned from these experiences and how do you plan to apply them with your role as Chairman?

The bulk (75-80%) of our revenue comes from long-term PPAs with state enterprises which have felt no impact of COVID-19; only 20%-25% of our revenue comes from collaboration with the industrial sector, which have generally felt negative impacts of COVID-19.

Incidentally, we had prepared ourselves a year before COVID struck by continuing to add new industrial customers to our portfolio after we noticed a negative economic trend since early 2019. As a result, despite the COVID-19 crisis, for the first nine months of 2020 B.Grimm Power managed to grow a normalised net profit by 21.2% YoY to $69.27m (THB2.101b).

Firstly, we at all times emphasise quality, sustainable growth by carefully selecting projects through in-depth analysis. The COVID-19 situation has confirmed that we have been on the right track. Furthermore, we always promote teamwork, elicit strengths of team members, forge an ownership environment, give recognition and establish a happy workplace.

What is B.Grimm’s edge against its competitors?

Our strength which leads B.Grimm Power to the frontier of the power business is our 24-year experience as a “real developer”.

To date, we have developed 42 greenfield projects on schedule and within budgets. Our in-house team commands experience and expertise; our involvement in projects from the beginning ensures selection of the right contractors and the best suited technologies. Our in-house O&M team focus is on making our power plants operate at high efficiency and initiating projects to save costs or improve efficiency further.

What’s in store for B.Grimm in the coming years? Any new projects you would like to share to our readers?

B.Grimm Power currently commands a 3.7GW portfolio, including operating projects and projects under development.

Highlight projects under development are 1) U-Tapao hybrid power plants with an 80MW cogeneration power plant, a 15MW solar project and a 50MWh energy storage system; 2) the current construction of seven industrial power plants with a total capacity of 980 MW to support Thailand’s industrial sector; and 3) the construction of a 16MW wind farm in Thailand and a 39MW solar farm in Cambodia with scheduled commercial operation in Q4 2020-Q1 2021.

Furthermore, B.Grimm Power just won an LNG shipper license from Thai regulators, a boon to our fuel cost management and business expansion. Natural gas would remain a major fuel source for this region, in which our more than 24 years of experience lies.

In addition, we are targeting a number of potential projects over the next 12 months, including LNG-to-power projects in Vietnam and M&A projects both in Thailand and overseas.

These could raise B.Grimm Power’s portfolio to 7.2GW by 2025.

ASIAN POWER 13

CO-PUBLISHED CORPORATE PROFILE

Understanding energy flow—key to energy efficiency As energy efficiency rises up on the agenda, Therese Leong, Head of Sales & Marketing, Hub Asia, ABB Energy Industries, discusses what makes a formula for success.

World’s first carbon neutral and energy self-sufficient production site

A

ccording to the International Energy Agency (IAE) energy efficiency could provide more than 40% of the emissions abatement required by 2040. With recognition growing, there is a clear message that industry needs to massively scale up energy efficiency.

There is no doubt digital technology and big data are reshaping the way industries can plan and efficiently use their energy. An optimised and stable production process can heavily reduce energy requirements in the future, a factor that energy operators, utility providers and all those involved in delivery of public services are beginning to take on board.

The power grid has become a lot more complex. We have seen new technologies and new energy sources coming in and changing the market. Electrical power demands continue to increase as industrial processes, data centers and the number of electric vehicles continue to grow. At the same time, the share of energy from renewable sources, such as wind and solar, is also growing. These variables often make it harder to 14 ASIAN POWER

successfully manage energy efficiency.

Digitalization is key in this period of energy transition. How industry re-imagines people and processes, leveraging digital technologies to take control of energy capabilities and improve operational efficiencies, reduce costs and drive sustainability, is paramount.

Improving productivity In order to question and make better, more informed decisions aimed at delivering efficiencies and improvements, operators must have total visibility of their operations and energy flows.

When it comes to energy optimisation, greenfield sites obviously have an advantage as the design and investment phase is critically important. However, whether greenfield or brownfield, developing and implementing an energy management strategy is critical.

Energy companies must do an analysis on where their energy is consumed and where it’s produced. ABB always recommends starting

with simulation. Planning power consumption via ABB’s Power Process Simulator can confirm or refute operators’ existing operations by testing them in a realistic yet disconnected environment using a replica of the plant’s electrical control system.

Last May 2019, at its site in Luedenscheid, Germany, ABB proved that the energy transition for industrial sites can be designed and sustainably succeed with this approach to digital energy management.

After a two-year design and construction phase, ABB launched its first carbon neutral and energy self-sufficient production site in the world.

Featuring a solar power plant which will deliver around 1100 MWh of climate-neutral solar power a year it will self-generate enough power to cover 100% of the factories` power requirements.

Measuring 3500sqm and installed over the car parks on the company premises, the photovoltaic system will deliver around 1100 MWh of climateneutral solar power a year–approximately the annual requirement of 340 private households.

Therese Leong, Head of Sales & Marketing, Hub Asia, ABB Energy Industries

The technological centerpiece of the entire plant is ABB’s scalable energy management system OPTIMAX® which provides constant surveillance and aggregates optimum control of the plant’s entire energy production, consumption and storage. The system calculates the optimum energy flow based on predictive data and compensates for deviations in real time, solving complications around distributed energy resources.

Aside from the energy management system and the photovoltaic system with inverters, the entire system brings together other ABB technologies that are digitally interconnected. In addition, ABB charging points, where staff and visitors can charge their electric vehicles free of charge, provide for an additional improvement in the regional eco-balance. This single-source energy management solution is rounded off by smart switchgear for energy distribution.

The project is part of ABB’s “Mission to Zero” and a proof-of-concept that it is possible to build and run a zero emissions factory and offers as a blue-print, not only for industry but for transformation of everything from individual homes to large cities into safe, smart, and sustainable ecosystems.

The flagship site will save about 630 tonnes of CO2 a year and hence make an important contribution to help improve the climate and environmental situation at ABB in Luedenscheid.

Understanding the pattern of energy intensity Whilst industry can gain process efficiencies and reduce and leaner energy flow within their operations, it is also becoming more important for utility providers in the production of electricity.

Whether a single utility site, or part of a wider fleet, directly connected to the power grid or decentralised - mapping and then controlling energy flows through an integrated energy management solution is vital and the only way operators can make a comprehensive assessment of energy consumption.

The only accurate way to have a clear picture of production versus consumption in real time, and in relation to live energy prices, is for operators to automate their manual engineering processes. As a result, they can increase revenues by between 2-5%, save on manpower time by approximately 5-20 hours per employee and reduce energy costs by 5-10%.

Virtual power plants (VPP) are one effective way to harness the advantages of multi-unit distributed generation. They can assist energy companies with installed distributed energy resources (DERs) such as wind and solar, to aggregate, repurpose and dispatch energy sources and help them to trade more efficiently with the grid.

For those users with control of gridconnected assets, such as vertically integrated utilities, cities and aggregators, it can coordinate control of networked generation assets by creating a virtual power plant.

Cities face the same challenges as utilities Industry and communities face the same key challenges: Manage the growth whilst transitioning to a sustainable, reliable energy supply or production site with limited financial and spatial resources.

In the face of rapid urbanisation cities, utilities and industry all need to become smarter in order to obtain greater efficiencies from existing infrastructure and build unified, attractive city services.However, many cities struggle in collating, visualising, sharing and evaluating the necessary information to make the right decisions.

A critical part of any smart city energy strategy must be developing and deploying solutions for energy management, district heating and cooling systems, water treatment & wastewater treatment and reuse, transfer and distribution, electric vehicle charging and more. The operation of each connected unit and the delivery of grid services are economically optimised in real time given system constraints, enabling integrated planning, trading, operating, monitoring, and reporting of power plants, generation units, energy storages, and controllable loads.

Taking the next step Reducing costs, minimising risks and driving sustained profitability are three key drivers for utility providers, municipalities and energy operators. The key is to set out clear goals, have a good understanding of your plant, understanding the ebbs and flows to optimise performance, as well as an open mind to rethink and streamline your operations.

Globally, ABB is working together with our customers across the energy sector to drive operational energy efficiencies via process automation, asset management and digitisation solutions. By supplying real-time visibility and insights into energy resources versus consumption versus demand, we help our customers optimise productivity and drive down OPEX, while minimising downtime and helping to meet environmental targets.

OPTIMAX provides constant surveillance and optimum control in plants

“Reducing costs, minimising risks, and driving sustained profitability are key drivers for industry players.”

ASIAN POWER 15

OPINION

JACKSON SENG Microgrids: Helping to bring reliable, accessible and clean energy to Asia

Director of Turbine Engineering, LOC Renewables

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nergy demand across Asia is surging and expected to grow by twothirds by 2040, according to the International Renewable Energy Agency. At the same time, more than 65 million people mostly in Southeast Asia are without adequate or reliable access to electricity.

How does Asia solve its energy supply and demand dilemma? We are at a critical juncture. Managed well, the potential benefits of energy expansion can boost economies and improve quality of life for millions of people. Alternatively, a poorly managed transition that relies on traditional energy sources can pose environmental and economic risks where it impacts on natural capital or communities.

Renewable energy solutions like microgrids appear a ready solution to these competing imperatives and a way to close the supply and demand gap sustainably and responsibly.

Microgrids harness distributed energy resources, such as residential rooftop and community-scale solar panels and storage, providing people with clean, alternative energy sources. They enable their owners to become energy producers or ‘prosumers’ as well and take control over their energy supplies. Utilities benefit too where they can plug microgrids into larger smart grid systems to optimise energy sources and storage.

Thousands of communities across Asia live without access to electricity.

Where connection to an electricity grid is impossible due to location and the cost of access, microgrids represent a cost-effective way to expand energy access in remote areas. Using digital technology, microgrids work where traditional infrastructure fails, by creating power grids based on a community’s needs.

An infrastructure leap Electrical infrastructure across the region is ageing and is vulnerable to increasing natural disasters and surging demand. Microgrids are a proven viable option to provide electricity when power outages and extreme weather strike. They have the ability to disconnect critical assets from the larger grid and provide secure power in the event of a major system outage. They take advantage of various energy systems and storage abilities to maintain supply when the main grid cannot. Through cloudconnected software, the upgrading and system management of microgrid infrastructure can be decentralised, driving resilience when needed most.

Given Asia’s susceptibility to extreme weather events, it is imperative that energy infrastructure is strengthened in preparation for future extreme weather events and power outages that place the region’s wellbeing at risk. Microgrids are a smart option to improve the resilience of vulnerable communities and businesses.

Microgrids are smart options to improve resilience of communities and businesses 16 ASIAN POWER

Electrical infrastructure in Asia is ageing and is vulnerable to natural disasters and surging demand

Clean energy demand increasing Renewable energy currently meets about 15% of Southeast Asia’s demand (IEA). With demand set to increase at an average of 6% per year (IEA), the environmental strain will also grow. Microgrids present an alternative power source to the older, CO2-generating plants, and empower the end-user with control over the energy mix used, allowing for the integration of locally produced energy from renewable sources, such as solar and hydropower.

Smart energy management services mean that local power generation can be managed in line with local demand, minimising exchanges with the larger grid and freeing resources. Microgrids empower users to choose when to most efficiently produce, consume, store or even sell energy. By offering the opportunity to use renewable sources and optimise production and consumption, microgrids help to ensure Asia’s energy future is green.

Microgrids in action Our involvement in projects across Asia has demonstrated the true need for resilient energy systems, championed by microgrid technology. In Anankwin Village in Myanmar, we worked with partners to install one of the largest solar hybrid projects in the country, providing reliable electricity access to more than 350 rural homes, many local businesses and community centers.

Another example, in the Porisa Villages in Papua, we discovered a village community that depended on unreliable diesel engines to power electricity to the entire community. Championed by the local community, we supported the building of a solar system power plant, helping them eliminate the need for fossil energy, reducing maintenance costs and providing them a resilient energy system.

Where access to reliable electricity is a prerequisite for economic growth, job creation and development, microgrids are an infrastructure step-change for energy utilities and their customers. As Asia experiences increasing urbanisation and industrialisation, new demands on the energy sector are inevitable. The region’s new energy landscape can look to microgrids as a tool to provide reliable, accessible and clean energy, enabling communities and businesses to reach their potential.

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