ISSUE 51 | DISPLAY TO 30 June 2012 | www.asian-power.com | A Charlton Media Group publication
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MEDCO POWER INDONESIA AIMS FOR 1000MW BY 2015 DIRECTOR FAZIL E. ALFITRI POSES FOR A QUADRUPLE POWER CAPACITY JUMP - WILL HE MAKE IT?
MICA(P) 248/07/2011
OPINION Renewable energy trends Mainstream bound
SPECIAL REPORT More Asian IPP woes When will we see the light?
FEATURE China demands less power Yet asks for more capacity
OPINION Japan’s troubled power sector Serious overhaul required
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FIRST
News from asianpower.com MOST READ
Vietnam reaffirms economic importance of nuclear power plants
Philippine company to begin mass production of PV panels
Vietnamese President Truong Tan Sang says that nuclear power plants are of essential significance for national development. He adds that Vietnam needs support from Russian experts to complete its nuclear projects and report on its progress to relevant government agencies and the Vietnamese people.
The solar power subsidiary of the Philippines’ largest conglomerate prepares to foray into an already oversupplied photovoltaic panels sector. Integrated Microelectronics, Inc. (IMI) will start mass-producing solar panels this year at its renewable energy unit in California and at its plant in Jiaxing, a city in China’s northern Zhejiang province.
Japan struggles to wean itself from nuclear power
KEPCO to build more nuclear power plants abroad
The largest electric utility in South Korea reports a surge of foreign interest in its nuclear power plants. Korea Electric Power Corporation (KEPCO) plans to spend US$706 million this year on overseas resources development that includes the construction of nuclear power plants. It will begin talks in 2013 with the United Arab Emirates on a new deal for four nuclear power plants. KEPCO is also holding talks with India, Kazakhstan, South Africa, Turkey, and Vietnam over probable exports of its nuclear reactors.
China to build more nuclear power plants A positive report emboldens China to push ahead with its plans to
source more electricity from nuclear power. Safety revisions on 27 reactors being built have revealed no risks similar to the catastrophe that afflicted the illfated Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant in Japan in March 2011. Zhang Guobao, Chairman of the Advisory Committee of the National Energy Administration, says that the 27 new plants are safe. China will continue building more nuclear power plants “in a safe environment” to meet its energy demands, Zhang says.
Japan to build its largest solar energy plant this year Electric power derived from solar energy has just taken a great surge forward in Japan.
Three of Japan’s leading corporations have banded together to build a “mega-solar power plant” capable of producing 70 megawatts of solar energy. It will be the largest solar power plant in Japan to date. The plant is a dramatic solution to Japan’s efforts to divorce itself from nuclear power in the wake of the catastrophic Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident in March 2011.
China’s waste-to-power developers score a great rate The rate received by waste-to-power developers is almost double that of coal-fired producers. China’s National Development and Reform Commission says
developers of wasteto-energy power plants will be paid US$0.10 per kilowatt-hour to encourage renewable energy development. This compares to the US$0.03 and US$0.04 received by coal-fired power firms.
Wind power to blow strong in New Zealand Falling wind turbine prices are set to spark a surge in wind power investments in New Zealand. New Zealand’s Wind Energy Association predicts that the country’s wind farm capacity over the next 20 years could increase by as much as six times compared to today. Wind capacity is presently estimated at 622MW but is forecast to rise to 3500MW by 2030.
PUBLISHER & EDITOR-IN-CHIEF
MICA(P) 248/07/2011 Asian Power is a bi-monthly news magazine published by Charlton Media Group Pte Ltd registered in Singapore. Its circulation is to leaders in the Asian power industry and is available on a controlled circulation and paid basis. CONTACT THE PUBLISHER Charlton Media Group, #06-09 E, Maxwell House 20 Maxwell Road Singapore 069113 www.charltonmedia.com, +65 3158 1238 All editorial is copyright and may not be reproduced without consent. Contributions are invited but Asian Power can accept no responsibility for loss.
GRAPHIC ARTIST MEDIA ASSISTANT ADVERTISING CONTACTS
The road to a nuclear energy-free Japan is bound to get tougher. In one of the boldest anti-nuclear statements yet by a ranking government official, Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Yukio Edano says Japan should strive to totally phase out nuclear power. He hesitated, however, to call for its outright ban in the face of strong opposition from the nuclear power industry and its allies.
Taiwan committed to becoming nuclear-free
Renewable energy, although more expensive, will replace nuclear power in Taiwan. Shih Yen-hsiang says Taiwan’s goal is to become a nuclear-free country and that it will diversify its energy resources to achieve this aim.
Tim Charlton Richard Erpilo Daniela Gujilde Tim Charlton tim@charltonmediamail.com Laarni Salazar-Navida lanie@charltonmediamail.com Loren Laylay loren@charltonmediamail.com
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SPECIAL REPORT: ASIAN IPP MARKET
Problems plague Asian IPP market IPPs are expected to meet 33% of the 350GW Asian demand in the next 10 years, but is this feasible? Report by Krisana Gallezo
T
he statistics came from GDF Suez Asia’s Head of Strategy, Markets and Sales Lucas Hautvast based on their latest study implying vast growth opportunities for IPPs in the region. Experts during the Power and Electricity World Asia 2012 however note that much of the promised gains for IPP remain elusive since its introduction in the 1990s. The case in Indonesia In 2008, the Indonesian government announced a development project of
10,000 MW steam power plants by 2014 with large private sector participation. The first phase of the project aimed at producing 4,135 MW in 2010, but only 930 MW were in fact produced. Currently, there remains 25 milllion Indonesians, which is 40% of their population, who don’t get electricity. Asian Power spoke with MedcoEnergi Chief Financial Officer Syamsurizal Munaf. He boldy shares probable reasons why the apparently “ambitious” target remains to be reached.
Country
Needed Capacity (GW)
% for IPP
Indonesia
20-30
40-60%
Malaysia
10-20
20% 30-50%
Thailand
15-25
Philippines
15-20
90%
Vietnam
15-20
20-50%
Others
20-30
30%
Asia
250-350
33%
Source: GDF Suez Asia
Currently, there remains 25 milllion Indonesians, which is 40% of their population, who don’t get electricity.
According to Munaf, there have been series of hurdles on implementation ranging from the prospects, all the way to the sponsors’ ability to access capital market. “When talking about funding a project, if you are looking at the first 100-200 MW you would probably be looking for domestic financing. It is not as huge as international financing though. You are faced with the scarcity of liquidity, notwithstanding the fact that we are not the only IPP
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SPECIAL REPORT: ASIAN IPP MARKET around,” he says. Munaf also mentions ambiguities regarding policies on pricing of electricity that developers purchase from the IPP. “It is different from one place to the other. In eastern Indonesia they price higher while in western Indonesia they price less,” he says. Beyond pricing issues, Munaf says that the hardest part is dealing with the government. “I think one of the major challenges is the slow process of negotiation with the government. Processing is complicated and lengthy. Before winning a bid, determining the price takes ages and most developers don’t have enough capital to close the deal. In the end, only those with strong capital and capability to cope with the slow grind are most likely to succeed,” he says. Munaf says that in Thailand, the IPP market is more lucrative because they have long-term Power Purchasing Agreements. “In 25 years, their power generation system can secure gas that is enough for another 25 years. In Indonesia, you barely see anything close to that. Instead, you get a gas sales agreement contract of not more than six to seven years. It’s not even a commitment-based contract,” he says. “It is difficult to secure a healthy IPP contract in Indonesia. The gas supplier, the gas supplies, and the PPA would not go beyond eight or nine years. Gas prices compete with the purchasing ability of any IPP. And producers cannot purchase too much because they will suffer criticism from the parliament,” adds Munaf. To achieve the target, Munaf suggests for the government to look into the country’s power capabilities, resources, fees, and distribution. Aging infrastructure Agrekko, a world leader in providing temporary power generation, meanwhile blames the region’s aging power infrastructure for keeping investors away. “We operate in a region which is home to many developing economies where the rate of demand for electricity is growing faster than the supply available in the market. Therefore, these economies are playing catchup,” Aggreko Managing Director for Asian Operation Debajit Das says noting that the problem is even made complicated by an aging power infrastructure in the region. “Statistics indicate that globally, there is approximately 53 GW of power generation capacity that will cross the 40-year mark in the next three years, of which 37 GW are in Asia
alone. In general, power plants have a useful lifespan of approximately 2535 years. Crossing the 40-year mark for power plants could be a stretch, and beyond that, they are generally unreliable and prone to break down. Once plants break down, they may take a considerable amount of time to repair. At this stage, using interim power solutions can be beneficial,” adds Das. According to Das, forty years for a powerplant is quite long. Power plants beyond 50 years are already unreliable. He says, “On hydropower plants, once it breaks down, you cannot fix it in a month. Normally, 25-30 years is how long power plants live.” The case in Mongolia Das’ claims are probably best exemplified in Mongolia where the latest IPP project, which was in November 2011, was the first in 20 years. Prophecy Coal speaks proudly of Chandgana mine-mouth power plant project, a first of the its kind for Mongolia and one designed to augment, and ultimately replace, that country’s aging power supply infrastructure. “There are four existing power plants in Mongolia but they have been there as far back as the 1970s and, in technical terms, are very aged already,” says Prophecy Coal Corp.’s CEO and Founder John Lee while noting that some other projects which were licensed in 1990s are currently inactive. Chandgana project is a 600 MW
Power plants beyond 50 years are already unreliable.
thermal coal power plant in central Mongolia that will be ramped up to 4200MW after phase 2. The initial 600MW capacity will be dedicated toward domestic consumption. According to Lee, the proposed output increase to 4200MW would enable Mongolia to export power directly into China via existing ultra high voltage lines. Merging and acquisitions in Asia According to Hautvast, some companies are looking into merging and acquisitions to further IPP developments. He cautions, however, that this may not be a viable option for now because of the lack of opportunities. “It is difficult to do merging and acquisition strategies in Asia. The problem is that while there are many players coming into play, mostly from the domestic front, there is a limited number of companies looking to invest outside,” he says. “There are no exit strategies, no announced or reviewed privatization programs like in the Philippines or Singapore over the last few years,” Hautvast notes adding that there are notable exceptions like India and Japan. India is looking into thermal power while Japan is considering selling some nuclear facilities. Hautvast notes that for the meantime, the region’s primary thrust should be to find ways on how to address major bottlenecks in the IPP process. “Generally, the challenge is to improve the IPP process,” he concludes.
Singa Gas Processing Facility of Medco Energi ASIAN POWER 5
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OPINION
JOHN GOSS Power shortages are set to continue in China john.goss@ceejay.com.hk
M
ainland China is facing sustained power outages this year due to the country’s ever increasing demands for energy and the lack of growth in the development of new power plants. Forecasts say that China will continue to face a tight power supply situation throughout the year.
CEC expects more power outages The power outages in the country are expected throughout certain regions during high seasonal demands and the peak energy usage times throughout the year, according to the China Electricity Council (CEC), which represents the nation’s electric power producers. The CEC says that during this year, the effect from the country’s macro-economic tightening will be further demonstrated as the demands for energy slow down. The CEC has forecasted that energy consumption will reduce by between 8.5 and 10.5%, then growth in demand is expected to increase during the latter part of the year. The CEC says that it expects China’s power generating capacity supply gap to grow between 30 to 40 GW this year compared with the 30 GW last year. The power shortfall is caused by the serious lack of power transmission capacity to transmit excess power from the country’s north-east, northwest, and Inner Mongolia regions to the load centers of energy consumption in the south-eastern, eastern, and central regions of the mainland China. Demand to outstrip supply China’s power industry will add 85 GW of new power generating capacity this year which will raise the nation’s installed capacity by 8.1% to 1,140 GW. This forecast by the CEC means that demands for energy will outstrip power supply for the third year in a row. This follows a time when power capacity and supply grew faster than demand between 2005 and 2009, which resulted in a significant reduction in power plant utilisation. The utilisation of coal-fired thermal power plants is expected to recover further, after jumping to 5% last year to 5,294 hours, which is the largest increase in utilisation since 2004. This is good news for the nation’s power producers, who suffered widespread losses for most of last year due to high prices for thermal coal and the State power tariff controls. It is expected that higher power plant utilisation will improve the generator’s profit margins by lowering the fixed operating costs per unit of power output. Not all of China’s power generation units experienced higher utilisation rates as its hydropower plant use fell by 11% to 3,028 hours last year. This is the lowest level in 30 years which was caused by lower than average rainfall in central and western regions. Hydropower output fell 3.5% compared with the over 14% growth in coal-fired thermal power plants. A direct effect of the shortfall in hydropower was that it added to the nation’s demands for thermal coal which was seriously affected by transportation bottlenecks that resulted in
higher spot-market prices for coal. Last year, the severe and widespread drought caused the most severe hydropower supply shortages in many parts of China. In the meantime the country’s demands continued to soar as a direct result of its economic growth and development. These unfavorable conditions, when combined together, created serious power shortages and outages across China which increased to as much as three million kilowatts at peak periods. Severe power supply shortages One of the two major State-owned power transmission and distribution companies, Southern Power Grid, says that it expects to see severe power supply shortages this year with the largest of these shortfalls ranging from eight million kilowatts (kW) to 14 million kW. The Chinese power supply company says that it believes that the early part of 2012 will experience the most difficult time for power supply and that the province of Guangdong will suffer the largest power shortfalls within the region’s power grid. It will most likely reach six million to 10 million kW. It was back in November last year that China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said that the prices of thermal coal at nine major ports, including Qinhuangdao, Caofeidian, and Tianjin, should be less than RMB 800 yuan ($126) a ton starting on January 1st, 2012.. However, analysts say that the spot prices of coal will rebound when the government lifts its tight control on coal prices, which will most probably happen after the second quarter of 2012. It is generally felt that the recent electricity tariff rise and the coal price regulations have helped the country’s coal-fired power plants by reducing their costs and raising their incomes. The CEC commented that this adjustment eased the power generators’ pressures but possible coal price increases in the future will remain a major threat.
The CEC says that it expects China’s power generating capacity supply gap to grow GW this year
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FEATURE plants is omitted from the generation data, production appears lower than consumption in most official Chinese statistics. The output of fossil-fueled, predominantly coal-fired plants increased by 6.8% on year to reach 608.9 TWh during the two months, whereas hydroelectric output fell 0.3% on year to 68.7 TWh during the period. Nuclear output was up almost 17% to 12.6 TWh, whereas wind output jumped more than 23% to 14 TWh. Looking ahead, Chinese power demand is projected to rise at an annual average rate of 8.8% during the five-year period ending 2015, according to the central growth projection in the latest forecasts issued by the CEC. The council projects that the growth rate will then slow to an annual average of 5.6% through 2020. China consumed 4,692.8 TWh in 2011, with installed capacity reaching 1,056,000 MW at the year end. Coal-fired output dominated supplies at more than 3,690 TWh within the 3,825.3 TWh of fossilfueled output, which was up 14.8% on year and represented more than 80% of total electricity output. The CEC estimates that electricity consumption in 2015 will be between 6,020 TWh and 6,610 TWh, based on lower and upper annual average growth projections of 7.5% and 9.5%, respectively. By 2020, consumption is estimated to range from 8,000 TWh to 8,810 TWh, based on annual average growth rates of 4.6% to 6.6% from 2016.
China forecasts slowing power demand CEC estimates that five years of growth will be followed by five years of decline.
T
he latest official Chinese projections suggest that electricity demand will slide below the recent double-digit level in coming years. But the country could still require twice as much generating capacity in 2020 as in 2010. The double-digit growth rate has already gone, albeit against the background of the international economic malaise. Chinese power demand increased by 6.7% on year to 749.7 TWh in the first two months of 2012, according to figures published by the China Electricity Council (CEC). In January demand fell 6.5% on year, although this was primarily because the lunar new year holiday occurred earlier than in 2011. The contraction was more than an offset of the 22.9% rise in February when consumption jumped due to the earlier holiday and the leap year’s extra day. Industrial electricity use rose by less than 5% on year during the two-month period to 543.9 TWh. While growth in overall demand is below average, industrial electricity use still accounted for 72.5% of total consumption. Within overall industrial electricity demand, the heavy industrial sector – which is dominated by often-inefficient, stateowned enterprises – saw growth of 6.6%
Chinese electricity demand form January to February 2012 Sector
TWh
% on year
12.3
-4.7
531.6
4.8
Agriculture, other primary Manufacturing (secondary) industry of which, heavy
670
6.6
Commercial, other tertiary
466
10.3
Residential
992
14.9
Total
702
6.7
Source: China Electricity Council
on year during the two months to reach almost 440 TWh. By contrast, the exportled and privately-oriented light industrial sector posted an on-year decline of 3.9% in electricity consumption for the period. Residential sector electricity demand grew by a robust 14.9% to 111.7 TWh, driven by colder than average weather and the continued drive towards urbanization. Service sector demand grew by 10.3% to 94 TWh. Meanwhile, the CEC reported that power generation increased by 7.1% on year in the first two months of 2012 to reach 718.7 TWh. Because the output of small power
Chinese power demand is projected to rise at an annual average rate of 8.8% during the fiveyear period ending 2015
Preventive measures Despite the projected slow growth in demand, CEC believes that China could still face a tight power supply situation in 2012 and beyond because the rate of additions to the national generation fleet is also projected to slow. The shortfall in 2012 could be between 30,000 and 40,000 megawatts, albeit with marked regional and seasonal variations, the CEC says, adding that the shortage could increase to 50,000 MW in 2013. The additional capacity projected for commissioning in 2012 is estimated at only 85,000 MW. This would include 50,000 MW of fossil-fueled plant compared with the 58,860 MW added in 2011, whereas hydroelectric additions are projected to increase to 20,000 MW in 2012 from the 12,250 MW added in 2011. The low projected growth rate is borne by the actual figures for the first two months of 2012. In order to meet the investment requirements and reduce unnecessary consumption, the CEC has said that in real terms, the average retail electricity price should reach Yuan 728.7/MWh ($115/ MWh) by 2015, a 27.6% increase from the 2010 level and equivalent to an average 5%/year rise.
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With capacity ofdistribution around 28,500 MW, and despiteconference current energy Celebrating itsMW 20thand Anniversary ingeneration 2012, POWER-GEN Asia has established itself as the premier and exhibition dedicated to the the power andcurrent transmission and industries. exhibition dedicated to power generation and transmission and distribution industries. imports from neighbouring Thailandand will transmission see a shortfall in capacity in the next few years. exhibition dedicated to the countries, power generation and distribution industries. Celebrating its its 20th 20th Anniversary Anniversary in in 2012, 2012, POWER-GEN POWER-GEN Asia Asia has has established established itself itself as as the the premier premier conference conference and and Celebrating Attracting delegates attendees from over 60 from across East exhibition 7,000 dedicated to the theand power generation and transmission and distribution industries. 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Topics discussed the conference include Trends, Finance & &Planning; Environmental Impact,Optimization Flexibility Integration, To gain access toat the opportunities within Power the power industry of Thailand and wider region, you should& ensure your presence at POWER-GEN Asia 2012. presence at POWER-GEN Asia 2012. Fuels, Smart & Distributed Power Generation & Plant Technologies; Operation, Optimization & Servicing. presence at Grids POWER-GEN Asia Generation; 2012. To To gain gain access access to to the the opportunities opportunities within within the the power power industry industry of of Thailand Thailand and and wider wider region, region, you you should should ensure ensure your your We inviteat you to celebrate celebrate 20 2012. years of of POWER-GEN POWER-GEN Asia Asia with with us us in in Bangkok, Bangkok, Thailand Thailand from from 3-5 3-5 October October 2012. 2012. presence POWER-GEN Asia We invite you to 20 years presence at POWER-GEN Asia 2012. To gain access to celebrate the opportunities within the power industry of Thailand and wider region,from you 3-5 should ensure2012. your We invite you to 20 years of POWER-GEN Asia with us in Bangkok, Thailand October presence at POWER-GEN Asia 2012. For information participating at the For exhibition and sponsorship opportunities We invite you to toabout celebrate 20 years years of of POWER-GEN Asia with us us in in Bangkok, Thailand from 3-5 3-5 October October 2012. 2012. For invite information about participating at POWER-GEN the For exhibition and sponsorship opportunities We you celebrate 20 Asia with Bangkok, Thailand from For information about participating at the For exhibition and sponsorship opportunities conference contact: contact: conference contact: contact: We invite you to celebrate 20 years of POWER-GENcontact: Asia with us in Bangkok, Thailand from 3-5 October 2012. conference contact: For information For exhibition Mathilde Sueur about Kelvin Marlow and For information about participating participating at at the the For exhibition and sponsorship sponsorship opportunities opportunities Mathilde Sueur Kelvin Marlow conference contact: contact: Mathilde Sueur Kelvin Marlow Conference Manager Exhibit Sales Manager conference contact: contact: Conference Manager Exhibit Sales Manager For information about participating at the For exhibition and sponsorship opportunities Conference Manager Exhibit Sales T: +44 (0) (0) Sueur 1992 656 634 634 T: +44 Marlow (0) 1992Manager 656 610 610 T: +44 1992 656 T: +44 (0) 1992 656 conference contact: contact: Mathilde Kelvin Mathilde Sueur Kelvin Marlow T: +44 (0) 1992 656 634 T: +44 (0) 1992 656 610 F: 700 C: +44 (0) 7808 587 764 F: +44 (0) 1992 656 700 C: +44 (0) 7808 587 764 Conference Manager Manager Exhibit Sales Sales Manager Manager Conference Exhibit F: +44 (0) 1992 656 700 C: +44 (0) 7808 587 764 Mathilde Sueur Kelvin Marlow E: paperspga@pennwell.com F: +44 (0) 1992 656 700 E: paperspga@pennwell.com F: +44 (0) 1992 656 700 T: +44 +44 (0) (0) 1992 1992 656 656 634 634 T: +44 (0) 1992 656 610 610 T: T: E: paperspga@pennwell.com F: +44 (0) 1992 656 700 Conference Manager Exhibit Sales Manager E: exhibitpga@pennwell.com E: F: +44 +44 (0) (0) 1992 1992 656 656 700 700 C: exhibitpga@pennwell.com +44 (0) (0) 7808 7808 587 587 764 764 F: C: +44 E: exhibitpga@pennwell.com T: +44 (0) 1992 656 634 T: +44 (0) 1992 656 610 E: paperspga@pennwell.com paperspga@pennwell.com F: +44 +44 (0) (0) 1992 1992 656 656 700 700 E: F: F: +44 (0) 1992 656 700 C: +44 (0) 7808 587 764 E: exhibitpga@pennwell.com exhibitpga@pennwell.com E: E: paperspga@pennwell.com F: +44 (0) 1992 656 700 WWW.POWERGENASIA.COM WWW.POWERGENASIA.COM E: exhibitpga@pennwell.com
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CO-PUBLISHED CORPORATE PROFILE
Turbomach leads the gas turbine gensets market Turbomach stamps its strong brand presence across the globe with unrelenting customer support and product developments.
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ith over 30 years of experience, Turbomach has built up its reputation as a valued supplier in the power generation market with over 1’000 gas turbine generator sets installed in more than 90 countries. Turbomach has been working with Solar® Turbines since 1985 and in 2004, Turbomach became wholly integrated with Solar Turbines, and became a wholly owned subsidiary of Caterpillar Inc.. Since then, Turbomach leverages Solar Turbines’ 60 years experience and reputation as the leading manufacturer of mid-range industrial Gas Turbines, with over 14,900 units installed. Our dedication to the power generation market is demonstrated through Turbomach’s proximity to its customer base with local teams located in 16 countries around the world. Following a “solutions provider” approach to power plant projects, our activities include engineering, packaging, installation, commissioning, and maintenance of 1 to 22 MWe gas turbine generator sets. So that we provide comprehensive power plant solutions up to 50 MWe, our array of products and services can be complemented by full power station engineering, procurement, and construction. The manufacturing industry has been Turbomach’s traditional customer base with extensive project experience in many energy intensive sectors, such as pulp and paper, food and beverages, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, ceramics, refineries, textiles, printing, and coking. Indeed, Gas Turbine combined heat and power systems have proven to be a crucial technology to ensure reliable power and high-grade heat supply, while achieving sub-
stantial energy savings. Over the years municipalities and commercial buildings around the world have chosen Turbomach’s products for the implementation of local district heating and cooling projects, while power and water utilities value our solutions including for quick and mobile power generation, blackstart, baseload, and combined cycle power plants, together with renewable energy support solutions for wind power peaking sites, waste to energy applications, and biomass treatment applications. In order to support the power generation sector’s effort to limit their environmental footprint, we are able to offer dry low emissions gas turbines, based on Solar’s patented SoLoNOx™ combustion system, which is already in use on over 2,200 installations. Our efficiency-led gas turbine design philosophy allows Turbomach to offer a wide range of best-in-class efficiency generator set, including the recuperated cycle Mercury™ 50 (4.6 MWe), together with the simple cycle Taurus™ 65 (6.3 MWe), Taurus™ 70 (7.8 MWe), Titan™130 (15.0
“Turbomach has been working with Solar® Turbines since 1985 and in 2004, Turbomach became wholly integrated with Solar Turbines, and became a wholly owned subsidiary of Caterpillar Inc..”
MWe) and Titan™ 250 (21.7 MWe). The Titan 250 is Solar’s most powerful gas turbine to date. One of the latest successful projects completed is with VVF, a manufacturing and marketing company of personal care and oleo chemicals, with a worldwide presence. Headquartered in Mumbai, the company has 15 operating centers spread over Asia, Middle East, the Far East, Europe and USA. VVF was using grid power and operating three conventional fired Thermic Fluid Heaters to take care of their heating demand. Also multiple steam boilers and screw chillers were catering to the steam and chilling demands. When VVF launched an initiative to reduce its energy costs, it opted for a Combined Heating, Power and Cooling system. VVF installed a Taurus 70 Gas Turbine (7 MWe) from Solar Turbines along with supplementary fired Thermic Fluid Heater (TFH) & high pressure Heat Recovery Steam Generator (HRSG) and Vapour Absorption Chillers to meet the various energy requirements. The TFH and HRSG are equipped with burners to meet the gap between the heat recovery potential and the requirement. The combustion efficiency of these burners is as high as 99% compared to the existing conventional fired equipment efficiencies of 89% reducing gas consumption by as high as 10MWth. These equipments also have the flexibility to fire fresh air and operate when the Gas Turbine is not operational. The combined efficiency of this co-generation plant is over 82 %. The plant has not only brought monetary benefits to the facility, it has substantially improved the power availability and quality for one of VVF’s largest production centers. The recovery of waste heat means a more efficient use of fuel and substantial reduction in the carbon emissions. Leveraging Turbomach staff’s vast experience and plant engineering competence, we provide you with complete and customized solutions to power your business.
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OCTOBER 4, 2012 BANGKOK, THAILAND
ANNOUNCING THE
The “Oscars” of the Power Industry are back for the th 8 Year! Asian Power Awards serves to recognize the BEST of the Industry
For Sponsorship Opportunity
Lanie Navida lanie@charltonmediamail.com Tel: +65 6223 7660 For Nomination Details
Julie Anne Nuñez julie@charltonmediamail.com Tel: +65 6223 7660 ASIAN POWER 11
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CEO INTERVIEW
Medco Power Indonesia targets quadruple increase in power capacity by 2015 are already supplying to Batam’s 70%. Hopefully, the local partnership continues for years to come. Do you have difficulties in securing funds for your projects? The major challenge for me is not so much on funding but more on getting the right project for the size and the right alignment for the project. Here’s the unique thing about Indonesia: The government gives several licenses a year and yet there is so much demand and so little supply. So, if you have a solution for a good power supply, you have a project. Actually, we don’t invent our own projects. People come to us to develop or execute their projects. They know that we can deliver, and that is our advantage. Our office screens 10-20 projects and take one or two good ones.
Medco Power President Director Fazil E. Alfitri shares how the firm plans to reach 1000MW in just three years. How do you intend to achieve your 1000MW target? We’ve been growing externally since 2004 when we started this company at 0 MW. Right now, we have invested 250 MW and 1,500 MW in operation. On the investment side, our target is to reach 1000 MW by 2015. Late last year, the original shareholders in MetroEnergi decided to dilute shares. 51% of the shares were bought by a private equity firm, Saratoga Capital, which is owned by two prominent Indonesians—Edwin Soeryad-Jaya and Sandiaga Uno. We are quite active right now and we are looking at acquisition all over Indonesia as we have to grow the company four times. The roadmap from 250 to 1000 MW is already laid out; we have permitted property calls and projects. We want to grow our global background. We are investing right now in superior hydro and geothermal power plants. Also, partnership is very important for portfolio management. We never do a project that is 100% ours. We always try to maximize whatever amount we have and stretch it for several projects. That way, we create a balanced portfolio. It’s basic financial management which is typical for a small developer. On our competitive edge, we are not a big company; we are basically a small developer. We try to compete where we are at our best. To do so, we are concentrating on developing more isolated power systems. We are looking at an area on the west side of Indonesia, outside Java. Western Indonesia is more populous than the eastern side. 70% of the Indonesian population are in there.
What are the current developments on Sarulla Geothermal Project and what other big projects are you working on? The biggest geothermal project in Indonesia right now is the one we are doing—the Sarulla project. This 330 MW geothermal power plant is a consortium project with Ormat Industries, Japan’s Itochu Corp, and Kyushu Elextric. It is probably the largest geothermal project at one spot, in the world. The project is worth USD1.5 million and is therefore a big challenge for us. We are expecting this plant to be operational by the end of 2014 until the beginning of 2015. We have already started drilling and construction will follow next year. Engineering is pretty much done. An official contractor has already been appointed and we are just waiting for a partner to close. I am also working on a simple 100 MW project in Batam. Basically, it’s funded locally and backed up by a Power Purchasing Agreement. Right now, we
How do you go about the lengthy process of approving IPP in Indonesia? The challenge is for the developer to see the opportunity. We don’t have anything against government demands. The Indonesian IPP sector has been here since 1995 and it has been going on until now. That means that the IPP complex has actually been good. If you are a developer with 10 million, invest by all means. Don’t think that Indonesia will change its laws. The Indonesian IPP has been very solid and I am proud that we don’t experience issues like what happen in China where the government changes the law every couple of years. Today, people are more selective of technology and its effect on the environment. In the case of Bali, a tourist area where people are highly religious, power plant constructions are frowned upon because for them, it is unclean. People are now more aware of the environment and I think it is the right path. Although this may hamper opportunities, looking at the growth of IPPs in Indonesia, I think we have more than enough.
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CO-PUBLISHED CORPORATE PROFILE
ABB’s strategy for your future – Symphony Plus Total plant automation for the power generation and water industries
seamlessly consolidates and rationalizes plant data to improve operator response to changing conditions, thereby improving plant safety and uptime.
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lant owners make significant capital investment in the system hardware, engineering tools and application software that together com- prise their initial distributed control system (DCS) installation. Upon commissioning, plant and corporate personnel add to the investment by enhancing control system components, tuning and refining control application code and developing knowledgeable staff who operate and maintain the plant and control system. The result of these investments are a highly trained and experienced staff of engineers, technician and operators, as well as the creation of sitespecific control strategies, procedures and graphics that enable the plant to maintain high unit availability and excellent operational performance. ABB’s evolution strategy aims at supporting the customers who wish to protect and enhance their investments in both the control system hardware and the valuable intellectual property. SymphonyTM Plus represents the new generation of ABB’s hugely successful Symphony family of distributed control systems (DCS) – the most widely used DCS in the power generation and water industries. In all, there are more than 6,000 Symphony DCS installations in operation all over the world, with more than 4,000 in power and water applications. For more than 30 years, ABB has evolved the Symphony family through several evolutionary stages. Through our “Evolution without obsolescence” life cycle policy, each generation builds on and enhances its predecessors, adding technologies and new functionalities where it meets the performance objectives of various users – in operations, maintenance, en-
gineering, IT and management. And it targets the key focus areas of the power and water industries – plant productivity, energy efficiency, operation security, plant safety and cost of ownership. It is an automation system that integrates all area of the plant in a simple, scalable, seamless, and secure manner. Defining great performance Symphony Plus enables plants and personnel to perform at their peak. It balances performance objectivities like asset availability, operational reliability and production efficiency with business goals like asset life extension, carbon reduction and regulatory compliance. In so doing, it provides plant owners with an essential tool for achieving sustainable profitable growth. Its defining features include the following: Total Plant Automation Symphony Plus provides users with a comprehensive view of the plant by integrating data from all plant areas and systems, including turbine control, electrical balance of plant, and remote SCADA systems. Through its open architecture, Symphony Plus
“Symphony Plus system is sold to more than 8,000MW power plants globally and represents one of the largest installed bases of DCS in the world.”
Transforms data into actionable business decisions Information is the key to successful business performance. In S+ Operations, historical, process and business data is collected from across the plant and stored securely. Transforming data into meaningful information, S+ Operations presents pertinent, easy-to-understand information in intuitive desktop displays to all levels of the organization. Unified engineering workbench Short time to production is the measure of engineering efficiency. S+ Engineering provides a world-class integrated engineering environment, with the requisite functionality to engineer, configure, administrate, secure, commission and maintain any system component – from field devices, electrical devices, control and I/O to operator workplace and gateway configuration. Embedded ABB know-how ABB brings more than 125 years of power and water expertise to each Symphony Plus solution. Our expertise has been successfully deployed in thousands of demanding installations across all types of application in the power generation and water industries. For each plant type, ABB combines in-depth process knowledge with extensive electrical and automation know-how to provide a best-in-class solution including, boiler protection/burner management systems; turbine control; electrical balance of plant, water technologies and plant optimization. Single control and I/O platform Symphony Plus provides total plant automation from a single control and I/O platform that encom-
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CO-PUBLISHED CORPORATE PROFILE
Courtesy of picture from Senoko Energy
Senoko Energy selects Symphony Plus
passes dedication interface modules and devices for all turbine types, OEMs and sizes, as well as an unparalleled selection of combustion instruments. Electrical and devise integration Symphony Plus provides a process and electrical control from a single platform. Using open standard protocols like IEC 61850 and Modbus TCP, Symphony Plus integrates electrical devices with process control and plant operations. It provides full integration of just about every type of device, and enables the monitoring and management of all plant assets at all levels of the plant. Inherent system security ABB understands the need to maintain a secure, reliable control environment while expending minimal time and effort. In addition to the many security features built into Symphony Plus, ABB actively participates in several major control system security standards committees. The guidance provided by these committees is designed to increase the integrity and confidentiality of all system functions and help prevent unauthorized control system access. Seamless life cycle management Evolution and investment protection are the cornerstones of ABB’s product life cycle strategy. Our “Evolution without obsolescence” policy helps customers find a balance between upgrading with new technologies and maximizing the return on asset investments already made. Thanks to this policy, plant owners have the ability to extend the useful life of their systems through evolution and avoid the costly and high-risk rip-and-replace approach. Life cycle services ABB offers a complete portfolio of services, from repairs and spare parts to Full Service® contracts and complete plant upgrades and equipment retrofits. ABB services are available to enhance every phase of the plant life cycle, from first concept and front-
end engineering to commissioning, operation and decommissioning. With unparalleled process, application and technology expertise, ABB is uniquely positioned to support changing needs and industry requirements. The evolution continues As Symphony Plus reaches the one-year anniversary of its introduction, ABB is excited to announce the addition of several new control and I/O products that are specifically designed to meet the present and future control needs of our customers. The new products include a new high-performance process controller named Symphony Plus Control HPC800 and three interface modules that expand the connectivity of the controller to intelligent electronic devices using the PROFIBUS DP and HART communication protocols. HPC 800 joins existing Symphony Plus Rack controllers and is suitable for applications that require modular DIN rail packaging. It also features a fast Ethernet-based plant network that makes it ideal for geographically distributed control applications in conventional or renewable power plants and water networks. The new controller combined with PROFIBUS and HART enables integration of intelligent devices such as smart transmitters, actuators, motor control centres, flame scanners and other electronic products. By using the same function code algorithms as Symphony Plus, Harmony, and INFI 90 Rack controllers, the HPC800 controller enables customers to effectively reuse their extensive library of ABB control solutions. The products also add to ABB’s comprehensive suite of new functionalities and enhancements introduced in all areas of the Symphony Plus platform. These range from electrical integration and alarm management to engineering efficiency and cyber security. To learn more about Symphony Plus, contact your local ABB sales office or download a brochure at: www.abb.com/powergeneration
Senoko Energy recently selected ABB to upgrade the control system for units 3, 4 and 5 to S+ Operations, ABB’s intuitive and easy-to-use HMI for Symphony Plus systems. Senoko required a dedicated DCS historian for long-term data archiving to enhance plant integrity and confidentiality and provide inherent system security. After looking at the rich features of S+ Operations and evaluating the alternatives, Senoko selected S+ Operations as the ideal HMI upgrade solution.
Stepwise evolution
ABB’s stepwise evolution approach provides Senoko Energy with the flexibility to improve plant operations over time while maintaining its investment in human knowledge and in the existing DCS. Compared to rip-andreplace alternatives, S+ Operations was the lowest cost and lowest risk option for Senoko Energy to extend the operating life and attain the highest efficiency of its control system assets. ABB will upgrade all the critical hardware and software components of the existing Symphony control system and perform the upgrade online without any interruption to plant operations. To ensure a risk-free transition, S+ Operations will operate in parallel to the Process Portal B consoles throughout the upgrade process. The upgrade is scheduled for completion in July 2013. The benefits for Senoko Energy in evolving their existing Symphony HMI to S+ Operations are extensive and include: - Upgrade of all critical hardware and software in accordance with ABB’s unique and long-term life cycle policy of ‘Evolution without obsolescence’ - Improved system reliability and cyber protection thanks to the inherent security features in all core functional areas of Symphony Plus, including S+ Operations, to protect the integrity and reliability of system operations - Extended operating life of the ABB control system - No plant shutdown during system upgrade activities ASIAN POWER 15
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CO-PUBLISHED CORPORATE PROFILE
Perkins penetrates the Indian market With a new manufacturing facility scheduled to open in 2013, Perkins holds nothing back as it establishes its brand presence in India. ings and more product developments. According to Bradshaw, Perkins will be developing a 135kVa, a 150 and a 180 rating this year. Some of Perkins’ most exciting products available today are built in its factory in Wuxi such as the 1106A which is a 200kVa and the 400A Series which targets the telecom sector that runs from 9kVa to 20kVa. But next year, Perkins will start manufacturing in India as well with its new facility.
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taying true to its philosophy of manufacturing close to its customers, Perkins Engines Company Limited powers up its presence in India with its new manufacturing facility. At the POWER-GEN India & Central Asia 2012 held in New Delhi, Asian Power was able to talk to Perkins as they shared the recent developments in their 120,000-square meter manufacturing site in the Shendra Industrial Area in Aurangabad and their future plans for the Indian market. Perkins at PowerGen India Located at a prime spot, Perkins’ booth was one of the most visited at the PowerGen India. Matt Bradshaw, sales director for India, noted that Perkins has a wide range of diesel engines available in India from 9 kVa to 2250 kVa prime and 2000 kVa standby, but on display were Perkins’ two key nodes in the country - the 4016 TRG which is their 2,500 kVa offering and the 2506TAG2 which is their 500 kVa offering. The 4016-61TRG Electro Unit is a newly developed turbocharged, air-to-water charge-cooled, 16-cylinder diesel engine, while the 2506C-E15TAG2 is a turbocharged and air-to-
air charge-cooled, 6-cylinder diesel engine. He said that PowerGen serves as a good avenue for them to show their commitment to India and to talk to their customers. “It’s a great opportunity to showcase our brand, build brand awareness, and really tell our customers in India that there is a credible alternative. We enjoy listening to what they are going to need in the future and developing those products and services to help them be successful in the market.” Bradshaw noted that despite being a new entrant to the Indian market, Perkins has made great progress since they started looking at the market in 2008, all thanks to a good range of product offer-
“Perkins invests another $150 million on a manufacturing facility for the 4000 Series range which is set to be completed by June 2013.”
The new facility in Aurangabad Since 2008 Perkins has invested more than $100m in two production lines at its Wuxi campus. After only five years, Perkins invests another $150 million on a manufacturing facility for the 4000 Series range which is set to be completed by June 2013. The Perkins 4000 Series is a range of 6, 8, 12 and 16-cylinder diesel and spark- ignited gas engines that range from 695kWm up to 2083kWm, capable of producing power that is equivalent to each engine providing enough electricity for between 500 and 1,000 homes. According to Richard Cotterell, large engines director and managing director of Perkins India Private Ltd., work on the new facility begins now and will be completed by mid-2013. “We see this an opportunity for us to develop a good supply base for our 4000 Series which may become providers for our global market,” he said. Cotterell also revealed that apart from the manufacturing equipment, they also invested in an engine development facility at the site, housing two endurance test beds that will provide the capability for component validation and emissions compliance testing to ensure high standards of production. “Our engines are used in many processcritical and even life-critical applications, so following
Richard Cotterell, Large Engines Director and Managing Director of Perkins India Private Ltd.
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Perkins’ customers speak
Matt Bradshaw, Sales Director for India the installation of manufacturing equipment next year, a thorough process validation will be undertaken to ensure that the very highest standards to which we manufacture across the world are in place here. This should be completed by March, putting us on target to manufacture our very first engine by June 2013,” he added. The facility will also generate direct jobs in India as it will employ between 450 and 500 people, with just over 100 office-based staff, said Cotterell. “We have already started to recruit key management roles and our new employees will be trained throughout this and next year, in readiness for the facility opening in June 2013. The facility will have a high tech and modern training school, reflecting our determination to invest in our teams.” Perkins’ manufacturing facility in Aurangabad will further stamp the company’s global presence. Perkins engines are currently manufactured around the world, with facilities in: Peterborough, UK producing the 400, 1100, and 1200 Series; Stafford, UK, producing the 1300, 1600, 2000, and 4000 Series; Curitiba, Brazil producing the 1100 Series; Griffin, North America producing the 400 Series; and Wuxi, China producing the 400 and 1100 Series. India’s export capability So why did Perkins decide to build the facility in India? According to Cotterell, India offers opportunities for Perkins from an electric power perspective, given that 50% of their engines go into this sector. “We also see India as a base for us for export, so India will be our Asian hub for manufacturing the 4000 Series,” he added. Managing director for sales and marketing Ennodio Ramos noted that they initially came to Asia with the medium-sized engines and then built two plants in Wuxi, near Shanghai. But they decided to put the 4000 Series, Perkins’ largest and most powerful range, in India as they have been penetrating this market very successfully in the last three years, so establishing a local presence was necessary to better satisfy the market needs. “India, as compared to any other electric power market in Asia, is a self-contained market which means that it produces gensets that are consumed locally as compared to China that actually exports 60% of the gensets they produce,” he added.
One thing that sets Perkins apart is its strong relationship with its partners and OEMs. As Matt Bradshaw, sales director for India, puts it, “We need to go out of our way, and we do go out of our way to make sure that our customers have the right information at the right time that they need to go out and win business.” Samir Mistry, managing director of Supernova Engineers, considers the wide range of products to be Perkins’ competitive advantage. “Our range of generators starts from 10 kVa to 2,000 kVa. Had Perkins not been there with us, our company would have remained in the SME sector. We would have been a small-scale player manufacturing generators up to 500 kVa but with Perkins we have an opportunity of making generators up to 2500 kVa.” Sterling and Wilson’s senior vice president Sanjay Jadhav describes Perkins as ‘a single company that can offer you all.’ “The lower range, 9kVa going up to 500kVa, is where we would be very interested because we have aspirations to go into the retail market. Sterling also has aspirations to go global, and Perkins is the right partner because it has a global brand and a global product service,” he added. The company’s global reach has always kept customers happy over the years, including Captiva Energy Solutions. Executive director Arijit Bose notes: “They have offices around the world. To be specific, they have 118 distributors operating in over 180 countries which gives them the reach to distribute their spares and their after-sales service.” Perkins also leads the generator sets market in China as attested by its OEMs. Gary Shao, general manager of Saonon Electric & Machine, looks forward to seeing more engines being manufactured in Wuxi. “Since Perkins Wuxi plant started operation, we have seen a shorter lead time, which certainly helps us to shorten delivery time to our own customers.” Perkins’ new 1600 Series was favorably received by the Chinese market. Benny Wang, general manager of Lei Shing Hong Machinery, notes that the first order came from their OEM customer PowerLink. “The new series have every feature of Perkins products: great flexibility, high reliability, and low cost of ownership. I have great confidence that this product will find their way into many installations in China.” According to PowerLink Machine’s CEO Zhang Yabin, Perkins’ strong brand has boosted their international business. “Perkins’ worldwide product support network has facilitated PowerLink’s entrance into the international arena. We now operate a manufacturing facility in the UK and have plans to set up plants in Europe.” This unrelenting product and customer support from Perkins made Tellhow Sci-Tech win a bid for a telecom project. Yang Jian, CEO at Tellhow Sci-Tech, recalls: “Perkins sent their technical personnel all the way from the UK to join our negotiation team. After we secured the order, support was provided from both Perkins and its distributor Sime Darby Elco’s sales team all through the project, up till delivery of the engines and commissioning.” Though India is predominantly a domestic market, Perkins aims to cultivate India’s export capability through its strong relationship with partners, wide range of products, and good infrastructure. “We had planned our initial capacity of 3,000 engines but we already have the infrastructure to easily expand to 5,000 engines without making any major investment. So we are ready to grow. Even though the Indian market today is domestic, we see possibilities of exporting around Asia,” said Ramos. Perkins’ plans for India Going forward, Perkins targets to strengthen its presence in India through expanding its network distribution. “We have two major distributors in this country, one in Chennai and the other is in New Delhi. What we’re doing is we’re building specific outlets around the country and we have a targeted plan year over year as we build our population in the country to build more branches. In addition to that, we are working with our OEMs which have a large distribution network, and then our distributor trains their
dealer to provide the basic service for our engine,” said Ramos. Perkins’ distribution partners in India are GMMCO Power and Powerparts Private Limited, which provide excellent product support including parts, fault diagnosis, servicing and warranty work. Perkins works with a group of OEMs within the Indian sector. Bradshaw revealed that Perkins is now trying to tap the industrial business in India as well. “We are also working with some industrial OEMs because as a company we don’t just offer electrical power, we also offer variable speed engines, so we are exploring opportunities in India for industrial business.” According to Cotterell, they are also planning to develop their relationships with their customers to build Perkins’ presence and continue delivering great products in order to meet the demand. “We also continue to sell a whole range of engines within India, so at this point in time we’ll continue to look at the opportunities to maybe do things with those engines in India over time. But for the time being, our focus in on our 4000 Series,” he added. ASIAN POWER 17
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Perkins to expand product support network in China With a manufacturing facility strategically located in one of Asia’s largest and fastest growing markets, what more does Perkins have in store for China?
Simon Gray, Product Marketing Manager at Perkins
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ccording to Simon Gray, product marketing manager at Perkins, the company aims to strengthen its brand presence as well as the support it offers to the end users through prioritising the growth of its product support network in China. He noted that Elco Sime Darby opened a new headquarters last year, and this year Lei Shing Hong will be opening a new headquarters as part of its continued investment in its product support offering. “Development of the Perkins network will continue throughout 2012 with the creation of a distributor branch in each province, with ongoing development work planned for 2013,” he added. Perkins has been manufacturing in China since 2008 when it opened two production lines in Wuxi for the 400 and 1100 Series range of engines. And this year, two new products were launched at the 11th China International Power and Generating Sets Exhibition held in April. Perkins’ new products Among other engines on display were Perkins’ two new products in the line-up. Gray notes that the 1600 Series ElectropaK range
of full authority electronic control, turbocharged, air-to-air charge-cooled engines have been developed to provide prime and standby power in a clean and cost-effective fashion with special emphasis placed on improved power density, reliability, and robustness. The 6-cylinder, 9.3 litre range offers outputs up to 300kVA (240 kWe) prime power and 330 kVA (264 kWe) standby power at 1,500 rpm – both key nodes – though the intention is to release a 350kVA (280kWe) standby version later in the year. “For OEMs and genset packagers, the key benefits include the combination of higher power density and load acceptance, which effectively means that the 1600 Series can
“Perkins’ manufacturing facility in Wuxi is pivotal to the company’s business strategy in China and they are now continuing to expand the capacity of the 400 and 1100 Series manufacturing lines”
achieve outputs normally associated with much bigger displacement engines, while offering a space saving opportunity during installation,” said Gray. Another new product is the 400A range. The 403A-15G2 model meets the all-important 15kVA prime power node which is normally met by using larger displacement engines. But because of the 403A-15G2’s improved power density made possible through mechanical governing, the same performance is achieved with a smaller package size. “The 1104C-44TAG2 and the 1106A70TAG4 support these two new engines, which are built at our Wuxi facility,” Gray added. The Wuxi plant Perkins’ manufacturing facility in Wuxi is pivotal to the company’s business strategy in China and they are now continuing to expand the capacity of the 400 and 1100 Series manufacturing lines. In 2011, Perkins introduced a new 6-cylinder assembly line, in addition to the 4-cylinder line, which opened in 2010. As Gray puts it: “At Wuxi we are now researching and developing our next stage of engines for markets in Asia and beyond. More than 300 engaged employees at our Wuxi facility are supporting our manufacturing and development work, and over the coming years we will continue to grow our employee numbers to meet the growing demand for our engines and reach our capacity of 130,000 engines a year.”
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OPINION
MATT FEINSTEIN China’s 12th Five-Year Plan calls for major capacity expansions despite downturn
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ven though some Chinese solar suppliers – Suntech Power is a notable example – have frozen capacity expansions due to slow growth in demand, China is reportedly pushing its top solar companies to expand. As per the 12th Five-Year Plan, the country wants key domestic polysilicon suppliers to expand annual capacity to 50,000 MT each, and module suppliers to 5 GW each, by 2012. This is despite the fairly slow demand growth and the increasing likelihood of tariffs applied to Chinese modules imported to the US (and a potential for the same in Europe). China’s goal The goal of the Chinese plan is to increase its worldwide market share in solar and to some degree, to tighten the belt on the already-slim remaining manufacturing industry in the US and Europe. In addition to its growing domestic market, those Chinese suppliers will likely seek out India and other emerging markets as primary demand sinks. When demand slows and inventory rises, the Chinese government will support those suppliers by buying modules at, or below, the cost of production. The strategy is not unique to solar, either; the same plan calls for similar action in an effort to commoditize membranes for water desalination and increase Chinese market share accordingly. Global supply forecasts In demand markets outside of India and China, expect to see a major rise in market share from Japanese suppliers – Panasonic, but also Solar Frontier. In the west, European suppliers like REC, Q-Cells, and SolarWorld may also be in position to make a comeback but they need to overcome both current financial troubles and a declining European demand market. In Germany, governmental authority to change feed-in tariff levels without parliamentary approval has been removed from a broader incentive revision law. This is a major win for the industry in that the government would have otherwise been able to quickly and easily revise feed-in tariff levels based on recent installation numbers, and limit the price premium on power to ratepayers that fund the incentive. Incentive reductions In the new version of the law, planned incentive reductions would have their magnitude determined by the amount of solar installed. Based on the previous four quarters, if installations exceed 7.5 GW (Germany’s installed total for 2011), incentive reductions are maximized at 29%.
If installations are between 2.5 GW and 3.5 GW – where the government would prefer them to be – incentives are cut by only 11.4%. The government projects installations in 2017 at between 900 MW and 1.9 GW. In the world’s new largest market – Italy, at 9 GW in 2011 – the government is taking a much more aggressive approach. A new solar program likely to be implemented mid-year would cap subsidized installations at 400 MW. Further, if installations in H1 2012 exceed 2 GW, all H2 installations would be halted. Going forward, in addition to the 400 MW incentive cap, only systems under 3 kW would be allowed. As Lux Research mentioned in the State of the Market Report, “Market Size Update 2012: The Push to a Post-Subsidy Solar Industry,” European governments will find their backs against a wall, and continue to take major action to curtail installations – like those being taken in Italy. Suppliers would be wise to begin planning for an industry beyond government incentives, and to expect a reality check in the form of a flat demand market in 2012. While Germany and Italy’s total markets are likely to decline gradually as opposed to instantly, the solar market is relying on Asian markets for broader growth.
As per the 12th Five-Year Plan, the country wants key domestic polysilicon suppliers to expand annual capacity to 50,000 MT each, and module suppliers to 5 GW each, by 2015
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OPINION
The Asian grid: Japan’s perspective Japan’s power sector proved vulnerable following the disaster in 2011. What now?
A FRENK WITHOOS
Japan Renewable Energy Foundation (JREF) was established to promote an Asian Super Grid to facilitate an electricity system fully based on renewable energy
s a consequence of the devastating disaster in March 2011, the vulnerability of Japan’s power sector was revealed and has ever since been a critical component to reassess. Obviously, the sector needs a serious overhaul. Shortly after the disaster, the Japan Renewable Energy Foundation (JREF) was established to promote an Asian Super Grid to facilitate an electricity system fully based on renewable energy. This initiative envisions the interconnection of the Japan, Korean, Chinese, Mongolian and Russian national grids with low loss High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) transmission lines. These transmission lines would enable the delivery of electricity from the region’s most abundant renewable energy sources to its demand centers whilst simultaneously balancing out the peaks and troughs of fluctuating renewable energy sources over a wider area. The impact this will have on the Japanese transmission grid is enormous. Power play in Japan Currently the power sector in Japan for an overwhelming majority consists of regional monopolies, controlling both generation and transmission on a full cost pricing model.The uniqueness of the Japan transmission grid is further substantiated by the fact that there is a 50Hz (East) and 60Hz (West) network, with minimum interconnection, essentially limit-
ing any power flow between eastern and western Japan. The business model has created a relatively expensive generation and transmission infrastructure as well as an inflexible network. Specifically, Japanese standards to comply have limited the competition in the supply chain, resulting in higher capital and operational costs. Japan’s electricity rates are among the highest in the world. “No nuke” campaign To minimise the dependency on nuclear energy, which is widely supported by the people in Japan, alternative generation resources need to be tapped and, in an efficient way, brought to the consumer. HVDC solutions are widely used in the international arena and it could be an efficient and effective backbone of Japan’s future energy developments, as well as the Asian grid. Integration of renewables, from a technology point of view, is also nothing new. Solar and wind generation is increasingly becoming competitive and able to compete with traditional power generation plants. What is critical now is decisive action from various stakeholders to create the framework policy that will supports required changes and provide a clear roadmap for implementation. Time is of the essence, change is unavoidable.
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OPINION
SCOTT SKLAR On-site renewable energy trends for the Asian power market
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Renewable generation in public infrastructure Critical public infrastructure includes distributed electric generation along electric transmission lines for line voltage augmentation and utility SCADA systems. Municipal water and sewage systems also utilize onsight generation (including photovoltaics, small wind, biogas, and in-stream [free flow] hydropower) for sensing and driving pipeline pumps. Oil pipelines are also incorporating distributed generation for cathodic protection (rust prevention), safety and protection systems. And municipal governments are more rapidly relying on these renewable energy systems to power biological and nuclear sensors, surveillance, and traffic cameras. Cellular companies are integrating renewable generation to increase diesel generator life and a few are moving to dedicated renewable energy systems to power their towers. Corporate and government facilities with campuses composed of many buildings are the next trends for insight power. Primarily, corporations are looking for higher power quality to obviate the need for back-up diesel generation which includes not only the capital costs but the monthly testing and the diesel fuel replacements. They also seek to provide electric power quality reducing electric surges (over-voltages), sages (under-voltages), and transients (spurts of electrons), all which harm digital equipment. Cheaper global alternative In countries with higher electric rates, many of the renewable systems are not only more cost effective than diesel-electric generation but also than grid electricity costs, if unsubsidized. Renewable generation has more predictable costs, and predictability during these unpredictable times has higher market appreciation. Air, land and water concerns The final trend that is driving global use of on-site electric and thermal generation (industrial process heat, water and space heating, and cooling) are concerns about intense weather and geological events and terrorism, and also water impacts. Traditional thermal-steam-to-electric generation competes head-to-head with agriculture
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enewable energy attracted over $250 billion in global private sector investment in 2011 according to the United Nation’s REN21 report by the World Resources Institute as well as by a separate analysis by Bloomberg Energy. While most of the media attention has been on utilityscale electric generation projects, some of the most interesting growth has been on hybrid-renewable energy generation tied to critical public infrastructure and critical loads in facilities and buildings.
and industrialization. The “energy/water nexus” is being addressed by many countries in Asia and throughout the globe. Distributive, renewable energy generation is as disruptive as cellular and the Internet have been to communications and information respectively. Recent advances in solid-state lighting, inverters, and storage (batteries, supercapacitors, flywheels, compressed storage, hydrogen, and pumped hydropower, etc.) are also creating flexibility in power and load management. These aforementioned technologies are all now manufactured in Asia and are also being utilized within the Asian power markets. Renewable energy goes mainstream I am often asked, “So when will renewable energy be mainstream?” And I respond that it is now – actually ubiquitous throughout our existing infrastructure. But this portfolio of new technologies in renewable energy, advanced storage, and high-value energy efficiency have just begun to “scale” in manufacturing and are just at the start of becoming integrated in standardized systems with standardized financing and maintenance formats. These new industries have yet to move into the merger and acquisition phase, which should begin in the following decade, and will signal the step from childhood to adolescence. This trend is following the exact same growth curves with their fits-and-starts as did cellular and computing. Asia will be in the forefront of both manufacturing and utilization.
I am often asked, “So when will renewable energy be mainstream?” And I respond that it is now.
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POWER 23 Answers for infrastructure andASIAN cities.
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