BUSINESS & FINANCE
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Business and Finance: Our predictions for 2022
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o bring in the new year, your editors have made 5 predictions about the business world for the next 12 months. We are not making any promises; these are just bits of rational forecasting combined with a dash of wishful thinking.
1. UK markets will cool down
After a pandemicrelated dip in 2020, the FTSE 100 has reached prepandemic levels; the M&A market boomed throughout 2021; and tech IPOs in London proved explosive. With the Bank of England raising interest rates for the first time since the start of the pandemic, this year seems an opportunity for the markets to cool their expansive growth.
Cell-Based meat: A Potential Boon for the UK Economy? Zoe Rhoades speaks to Ivy Farm Technologies about the future of the cell-based meat market in the UK.
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inston Churchill once said, “We shall escape the absurdity of growing a whole chicken in order to eat the breast or wing, by growing these parts separately under a suitable medium”. Perhaps he had foresight in areas outside of politics, but today the cultivated meat industry has huge potential, and even the most conservative global projections suggest sales will be over $100 billion by 2040. Cultivated meat is an alternative to traditional meat that is grown in a lab using the cells of a live animal. These cells are obtained by performing a biopsy, from which stem cells are extracted, manipulated, and replicated using a scaffold to direct their formation into a meat-like product. The final product is further manipulated to make it taste like meat which we would obtain from traditional farming practices. Ivy Farm Technologies is an Oxford spinout, founded by former engineering DPhil student Russ Tucker and Associate Professor Cathy Ye, using the
2. Clean and Green innovation will continue to grow
Funds have reflected a gradually more serious attitude to climate change, with ESG investing predicted to reach $1 trillion by 2030. Across the UK, the electric vehicle market can be expected to grow with the introduction of Clean Air Zones (such as the one coming to Oxford), further bolstering growth. People will be looking for stable, long-term investments. Clean and green innovation will be the way to go.
3. Artists will take further financial control
Elite film-makers are fighting back against studio control. Adele recently influenced Spotify. Taylor Swift took on PE funds and her old recording label. As independent music artists continue to grow, and social technology of continuous cell replication for production of cultivated meat. They argue that their technology is unique from that of competitors because of its distinctive scaffold system, from which growth results in a continuous harvest of cells, and its lower production costs. Last year the spinout commissioned the consultancy, Oxford Economics, to produce a report laying out the dynamics of the cultivated meat sector. The report estimates that the global demand for cultivated meat would be about £10.3 billion, with consumer spending in the UK being between £850 million to £1.7 billion by 2030. The industry alone is expected to contribute between £1.1 and £2.1 billion of gross value to UK GDP. So, what does this contribution consist of? The first component is the direct sale of cultivated meat products. This is expected to generate between £290-574 million for the UK economy. The industry’s spending on goods and services in the UK supply chain is expected to add between £414-829 million and the final £369-738 million accounts for wages paid to individuals involved cultivated meat industry and relevant supply chains. Secondly, the cultivated meat industry is expected to generate between £266-523 million and this would be able to provide an annual salary for the equivalent of 5,000-10,000 teachers in UK schools, or 6,000-12,000 nurses if we assume the constancy of salaries
in real terms. This report envisions the cultivated meat industry to gradually phase out the traditional farming industry. Cultivated meat
media allows for the rise in content creators more generally, we can expect these shifts in ownership of art to start trickling down to the smaller players.
and rules might be a catalyst of continued innovation.
4. Global investing in biotechnology will not lose steam
One year after rioters stormed the US Capitol Building, there is still a lack of regulatory mechanisms addressing misinformation or concerted efforts to stop it from propagating at its source. Misinformation does not deter user consumption or engagement significantly enough (be it a breach of democratic institutions or a raging pandemic) to disincentive its continued tolerance on social media networks or news channels. Unless this something dents their advertising revenues or ratings, if applicable, they’ll probably just shrug and move on.
As of October 2021, venture capital investment in biotechnology sector has reached $44.6 billion globally—that’s 1.3 times the previous year’s total. Investors are not only excited about vaccines, but also its supply chains, technologies broadly applicable to COVID-19 and other diseases, as well as lab space. Eased clinical approval regulations in the US and Europe, deployed in response to the pandemic, also don’t appear to be tightening soon. This friendly combination of money offers the benefits of country’s dependency on imports, food security, and ensuring that UK farming is maintained to high standards. However, the report does little to address how traditional farms will be affected by the
“The UK may become a ‘powerhouse for alternative proteins’.” cultivated meat industry, and it is unclear if the economic benefits reaped can help traditional farms become more sustainable in the transition. The CEO of Ivy Farm Technologies, Rich Dillon, explains that this report is the “missing piece of the jigsaw that fill in the economic benefits to the UK” and that if the approval can be obtained from the FSA, the UK may become a “powerhouse for alternative proteins, exporting our products and technology across the globe and reducing the UK’s reliance on imported meat”. To gain access to the UK market, cultivated meat would be classified as “novel foods” and companies would be required to complete a full application set out by the UK Food Standards Agency (FSA). However, this requires a thorough submission of administrative data, information about the novel food, certificates, along with scientific reports and opinions. As a result, the FSA’s process can take between 18 months to 3 years to approve new products. Other challenges include meeting safety and ethical concerns around taking a biopsy in an “invasive and non-consensual procedure”. The UK FSA needs to look at the advantages of being a ‘first mover’ in the cultivated meat industry and streamlining its regulatory applications process to make it easier for startups to sell their products to UK consumers. Neglecting this urgency means losing out on billions gained from first mover knowledge. Image Credit: Ivy Farm Technologies
5. Media proprietors will face a misinformation metastasis
Quick Takes
“Goldman Sachs has told clients that bitcoin “will compete with gold as ‘store of value’”, citing its $700bn market capitalisation.”- Elizabeth Howcroft, Reuters
“The City of London is in danger of becoming a sort of Jurassic Park where fund managers dedicate themselves to clipping coupons rather than encouraging growth and innovation.” - Paul Marshall, Financial Times
“Although the headlines say a split verdict in the Elizabeth Holmes trial, it’s still a big win for prosecutors. She now faces a realistic 10 to 20 years in federal prison, based on sentencing guidelines. Far from a tie.” - Dave Aronberg, State Attorney for Palm Beach County, Florida
