2017/2018 Market Report

2017/2018 MARKET REPORT YEAR END REVIEW & TRENDS TO WATCH

In this review of 2017 market activity in the Puget Sound, we explore the markets in eight key counties of Western Washington State: King, Pierce, Snohomish, Kitsap, Skagit, Jefferson, Island and San Juan counties.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Photo Above: 2041 Minor Avenue East, Seattle, Washington | SOLD $1,142,500 Front Cover & Back Cover: 28604 97th Ave SW, Vashon, Washington | $5,888,000 Photos by Mel Curtis

05............................. GLOBAL LEADERS IN LOCAL REAL ESTATE 06............................................................EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 08............ S&P CORELOGIC CASE-SHILLER HOME PRICE INDEX 10...................................... MEDIAN SELLING PRICE BY COUNTY 11.....................................MEDIAN SELLING PRICE BY ZIP CODE 12........................................... COUNTIES IN THE PUGET SOUND 21.......................... COMMUNITIES AROUND THE PUGET SOUND 52.. ............................................ ADDITIONAL COMMUNITY DATA 54.. ...........................................FIVE TRENDS TO WATCH IN 2018 60..................................................................................... INDEX

R ealo g ics S otheby's Inter national Realty | rsir. com

4 / / GLOBAL LEADERS IN LO CAL REAL ESTATE //

A

nother year has passed, as have many pivotal milestones for Realogics Sotheby’s International Realty (RSIR), our brand and the local housing market that we serve. The Seattle/Bellevue metro area led the nation all year with median home price increases, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index and despite the anemic inventory levels, our brokers generated $1.5 billion in sales volume – the greatest such production on a per-broker basis compared with the top ten largest real estate brands in the Northwest Multiple Listing Service (per Trendgraphix research). Globally, our brand garnered $108 billion in sales represented by 950 offices in 69 countries and territories with more than 22,000 sales associates. Website visitations at SothebysRealty.com increased 25 percent to 27 million unique visitors with 57 percent of this traffic originating from international markets. Sotheby’s International Realty also was again recognized by Lifestory Research as the “Most Trusted Residential Real Estate Brokerage” in the United States, while our parent company, Realogy Corp, was noted among the “The World’s Most Ethical Companies®” for the seventh year in a row, according to The Ethisphere Institute.

As we look ahead, 2018 will be marked by further growth with expansion occurring in all our Seattle and Eastside branch offices as well as the neighborhoods that we call home. Our acclaimed Research Editor and Data Analyst, William Hillis has assembled a year-over-year performance review of eight key counties and 29 regional markets. We offer these thoughts, as well as trend to watch, as a conversation starter with our experienced brokers who live and work in your neighborhood.

Dean Jones

President & CEO Realogics Sotheby's International Realty

Pictured above Realogics Sotheby's International Realty Owners Stacy and Dean Jones

// GLOBAL LEADERS IN LO CAL REAL ESTATE // 5

GLOBAL LEADERS IN LOCAL REAL ESTATE

T

he Pacific Northwest has always been synonymous with innovation and its no different at Realogics Sotheby’s International Realty (RSIR). In fact, the Sotheby’s brand has been doing just that for now for 274 years—artfully uniting extraordinary homes with extraordinary lives at all property types and price points.

RSIR chooses to go where the market is going next— whether that’s setting new benchmark values in neighborhoods, leading new developments, hosting international delegations or giving back towards many philanthropic interests. We evolve. The only constant is our pursuit of excellence represented by the brokers we employ, the clients we represent and the results we create.

SINCE 1744: ARTFULLY UNITING EXTRAORDINARY HOMES WITH EXTRAORDINARY LIVES R ealo g ics S otheby's Inter national Realty | rsir. com

6 / / EXECUTIVE SUMMARY //

E X ECU T I VE SUM M ARY

Eight-digit sales on the Eastside, tightening supply, and a year of leading the nation in home prices top our Puget Sound real estate sum-up this year.

Seattle’s performance on the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index The metropolitan region comprising the city of Seattle, the Eastside, Snohomish and Pierce Counties, led the nation in home price growth for the entire year. This amazing achievement is replayed month by month in a special section in this year’s Market Report (page 8).

The “Condominium Conundrum”

By August, the month in which the first of the aforementioned landmark sales was closed, RSIR was reporting on a supply-related phenomenon that is still working its way through the home construction pipeline.

A multi-year pattern of building apartments instead of condominiums has depleted the inventory of homes for sale in Seattle generally and especially downtown.

Landmark sales on the Eastside The steady escalation in home prices dominated the year’s other real estate news, and was reflected in a series of high-value transactions for extraordinary properties on the Eastside. During the region’s peak season for waterfront sales, previously unheard-of prices well-exceeding $10 million were paid for waterfront properties beginning in August. These proved to be the start of a trend that has continued into the first months of 2018 including RSIR's record Medina waterfront closing in February at $26.76 million.

Seattle condo inventory reached record lows in 2017, with proportionally more high-end units. Downtown, the supply of entry-level condos was absorbed more rapidly, leaving a stark imbalance—by the end of the year, million-dollar units there outnumbered others four to one.

As the number of available condominium units downtown plunged, the contrasting effects on different price segments intensified. Entry-level condo buyers were replaced by more affluent buyers. Downtown’s recurrent, seasonal pattern of sales concealed the depletion of lower priced units.

Over the course of the year, in the city at large, 74% of condo selling volume was divided among units priced below $750,000. Yet in downtown Seattle, condo selling volume was concentrated at the high end, with a hundred homes priced above $1 million finding buyers.

Realo g ics S otheby's Inter national Realty | 2 017/2018 Market Repor t

// EXECUTIVE SUMMARY // 7

The effects of Chinese capital controls and Canada’s restrictions on foreign buyers On New Year’s Eve 2016, China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) was prompted by a weakening yuan to “introduce” capital controls.

What they did in effect was to resume enforcement of longstanding regulations prohibiting both the use of foreign currency exchange to purchase property overseas, and the bundling of forex transactions for that purpose through the practice of mayi banjia (蚂蚁搬家, or “ants moving”).

China President Xi’s subsequent concentration of governmental power underscores RSIR’s expectation that China’s restrictions on overseas investment will remain in place. Nevertheless, Chinese buyers in Washington State and elsewhere have continued to invest with funds held in trust overseas and through other means, such as cryptocurrencies.

Late in the year, tempers flared as grassroots campaigning against foreign buyers in British Columbia resumed in earnest, the effects of the first foreign buyer tax having been absorbed by the market with few lasting effects.

It is anticipated that these moves will accelerate with added impact upon foreign real estate investors, leading some to look south to Washington State as an alternative destination for their purchases.

Excess demand flowing into exurban towns As readers will observe in our Community Profiles, prices and inventory in one Puget Sound city after another, starting from Seattle and the Eastside, have been affected by dwindling home supply amid burgeoning demand. The peripheral impacts of this mix have soaked up demand north and south of the urban core. As reported by RSIR, “Buyers unable to afford a home in Seattle—together with second-home buyers and owners cashing out—have flooded into the exurbs in search of value on a budget. These buyers are not only looking deep into southern and eastern King and Pierce Counties, but across Snohomish County and as far north as the Skagit Valley.” Even communities a twohour drive from major employment centers felt these effects in 2017.

Local government activism: the influence of restrictions on Mercer Island Rising prices have locked many longtime residents into their current environs, provoking dissatisfaction with new development that has spurred steps to protect the quality of life. In the fall, residents’ complaints compelled action by the City Council of Mercer Island to preserve views and neighborhood character by restricting buildable footprints on lots, lowering height restrictions, increasing setbacks, and regulating tree removal on developed lots.

RSIR will be monitoring the region to see whether Mercer Island’s example will be imitated by outlying communities, such as those in the San Juan Islands and Kitsap County, or whether such ordinances will be confined to certain enclaves of Central Puget Sound.

R ealo g ics S otheby's Inter national Realty | rsir. com

8 / / S&P C ORELO GIC CASE-SHILLER HOME PRICE INDEX //

SEAT T L E ' S PE R FO R M A NC E O N T H E S &P CO RE LO GI C CAS E- SH I L L E R H O M E P R I C E I N D E X

T

he metropolitan region comprising the city of Seattle, the Eastside, Snohomish and Pierce counties, led the nation in home price growth for the entire year. This amazing achievement is replayed month-by-month in our special section in this year's Market Report.

JANUARY

MAY

The Seattle Metropolitan Area— comprising not only the city of Seattle, but Bellevue and Everett as well—started 2017 having already led the nation in home price growth since August 2016.

Reports documented demand spilling over into neighboring cities and towns far to the north and south of Seattle, hoovering up inventory and driving market times to historic lows.

FEBRUARY Seattle's monthly price increase on the Index more than doubled, up to 1.91 percent in February, from 0.84 percent in January.

MARCH Seattle added to its lead over other Pacific Coast Gateway cities—San Francisco, Los Angeles, San Diego and Portland—advancing to a 12.31 percent year-over-year increase from 12.2 percent in February.

APRIL Seattle's year-over-year percentage growth leaped to 12.9 percent. RSIR observed the impact on renters of escalating down payments and monthly payments resulting from the delay of home purchases.

Realo g ics S otheby's Inter national Realty | 2 017/2018 Market Repor t

JUNE Dow Jones S&P Index editors noted that Seattle prices were advancing at a rate of 5.2 percentage points higher than those of nearby Portland, whose own price growth was second-fastest in the country.

// THE S&P/CASE-SHILLER HOME PRICE INDEX // 9

M O N T H LY A N D 1 2 - M O N T H C A S E - S H I L L E R I N D E X T R E N D S : 2 0 - C I T Y I N D E X F O U R PA C I F I C C O A S T M E T R O P O L I TA N R E G I O N S 3.00% 2.50% 10.00%

2.00% 1.50%

5.00%

1.00% 0.50%

0.00%

0.00% -0.50%

-5.00%

Monthly Price Index Changes

12-Month Price Index Trend

15.00%

-1.00%

20-City Composite Monthly

San Diego Monthly

Los Angeles Monthly

San Francisco Monthly

Seattle Monthly

20-City Composite 12-Month

San Diego 12-Month

Los Angeles 12-Month

San Francisco 12-Month

Seattle 12-Month

JULY

NOVEMBER

Seattle's home price growth appeared to be slowing down on a monthly basis since April, despite the Index remaining higher by 13.5 percent year-over-year.

The two-month hiccup in the Index ended, and prices in Seattle resumed their journey upward, increasing by 0.18 percent.

AUGUST Although monthly growth continued to wane, monthly prices in Seattle had led the nation for a full year. Moreover, August saw the first of a series of ultra-high-end home sales on Lake Washington's Eastside, including Bellevue closings at $14.25 million and $21 million.

SEPTEMBER RSIR's suspicion of a downturn in monthly home price growth was confirmed when the Index in Seattle turned negative by 0.28 percent in September, after a 31-month run on the upside.

OCTOBER The Index ended lower again, but only barely this month, at -0.7 percent. It was the first two-month decline in any Gateway Index since early 2016 in San Francisco.

DECEMBER The autumn decline behind them, Seattle home prices again strengthened their upward motion, advancing by 0.57 percent monthly and ending 2017 with a 16-month lead nationwide.

R ealo g ics S otheby's Inter national Realty | rsir. com

10 // MEDIAN SELLING PRICE BY C OUNT Y //

W H ATC O M $ 3 2 5,0 0 0

SA N J UA N $ 4 93,70 0

S K AG I T $ 3 0 9, 5 0 0 ISLAND $ 3 3 2 ,0 0 0 SNOHOMISH $ 4 1 5,0 0 0 JEFFERSON $ 3 3 0,0 0 0

CHELAN $ 2 89, 9 0 0

K I TSA P $ 3 1 0,0 0 0 M AS O N $212,500

KING $ 5 6 5,0 0 0

G RAYS H A R B O R $ 16 6, 10 0

K I T T I TAS $ 2 7 8 ,0 0 0 T H U R STO N $282,900

P I E RC E $ 3 0 0, 1 0 0

MEDIAN SELLING PRICE BY COUNT Y $100,000 $200,000 $300,000 $400,000 $500,000

2017

- $200,000 - $300,000 - $400,000 - $500,000 + The median price of single-family homes and

Realo g ics S otheby's Inter national Realty | 2 017/2018 Market Repor t

condominiums is shown for each county.

// MEDIAN SELLING PRICE BY ZIP C ODE // 11

98133

19.45% $807K

19.48% $503K

98392 1.72% $232K

26.45% $639K

98119

27.73% $981K

16.67% $882K

28.14% $1.052M

98112

51.12% $1.025M 5

59.02% $1.269M

Lorem

26.63% $845K

24.47% $2.848M

98144

90

12.04% $465K

98168 15.3% $366K

98070 7.56% $582K

98006

27.67% $1.088M

11.08% $388K

31.79% $865K

22.55% $581K

98178 18.99% $437K

900

98059

98027

21.72% $640K

405

98057

26.24% $766K

22.19% $392K

169 515

23.08% $377K

98058

98055 167

509

12.9% $442K

28.41% $447K

169 18

181

98031

98198 19.31% $378K

98032 22.29% $341K

48.89% $675K

98038 8.69% $449K

515

98030 5

167

MEDIAN SELLING PRICE BY ZIP CODE $100,000 $300,000 $500,000 $700,000 $900,000

98029

90

98188

14.77% $528K

98148

16.24% $1.090M

90

98056

98166

16 6

98075

18.01% 98118 $544K 18.6% $559K

22.55% $501K

98146

160

39.45% $806K

Lor

98106

18.7% $941K

19.49% $826K

98007

405

98108

13.58% $670K

98074

98008

45.48% 39.22% $2.1M $1.173M

19.61% $1.555M

98136

16.76% $853K

202

98040

11.11% $711K

18.83% $579K

98053

520

98004 98005

98122 98039

98116 98126

98102

16.97% $1.096M

18.26% $690K

31.87% $954K

26.51% $1.090M

98105

98109

303

98052

98033

L

21.95% $829K

202

18.14% $827K

24.57% $822K

98199

27.11% $675K

203

98103

305

22.69% $983K

405

98115

12.26% $775K

27.14% $796K

98077

202

5

98117

98107

22.42% $793K

98034

27.04% $662K

3

98110

23.82% $722K

98125

98072

45.56% $845K

98028

98177

98342

522

98011

98155

26.27% $590K

Lor em

12.27% $383K

e

98370

19.64% $392K

18

516

516

2017

- $300,000 - $500,000 - $700,000 - $900,000 +

The median price of single-family homes is shown beneath corresponding zip codes and include the percentage change from the prior year.

R ealo g ics S otheby's Inter national Realty | rsir. com

12 // C OUNTIES IN THE PUGET SOUND //

8

I

KEY COUNTIES IN THE PUGET SOUND

n King County, the shortage of single-family homes for sale in 2017 allowed scarcely any more transactions than in the preceding year. Yet as prices escalated sharply due to supply constraints, selling volume likewise rose, though not by as much as in Snohomish or Pierce Counties. Median selling prices surpassed a million dollars in Bellevue and Mercer Island, and drew close to this threshold in Sammamish (at $955,000) and the Seattle neighborhoods of Queen Anne and Magnolia (at $946,000).

Due to the spillover of demand into the exurbs as detailed in RSIR’s May S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index report, supply along I-5 North had been depleted to the point that Skagit County suffered an outright decline in new transactions in 2017. Both there and in Jefferson County, buyers paid higher selling prices, but these resulted in more modest

selling volume than seen closer to the major employment centers to the south.

In Kitsap and Pierce Counties, supply rose to meet demand in 2017. These counties saw greater increases in transactions combined with moderately higher selling prices, leading to much higher selling volumes in both. These counties absorbed some of the excess demand from metropolitan Seattle. The prospects of improved services to commuters, such as those offered by Kitsap Fast Ferries and Sound Transit, probably influenced some buying decisions in these areas.

Comparatively subdued demand prevailed in Island and San Juan Counties, where sellers enjoyed moderate increases in transactions and selling prices, leading to higher selling volume.

Realo g ics S otheby's Inter national Realty | 2 017/2018 Market Repor t

// C OUNTIES IN THE PUGET SOUND // 13

S I N G L E F A M I LY H O M E S M E D I A N S E L L I N G PRICES FOR 8 KEY COUNTIES

$700,000

$471,250

$520,000

$445,000

$339,000

$285,000

$314,450

$355,000

$390,000

$308,000

$250,000

$276,660

$312,250

$256,000

$277,278

$342,000

$273,540

$307,500

$260,000

$285,000

$200,000

$310,000

$300,000

$440,000

$485,000

$550,000

$500,000

2017

$630,000

$600,000

$400,000

2016

2015

$100,000 King

Kitsap

Jefferson

Skagit

Pierce

Snohomish

Island

San Juan

Wa l l i n g fo rd | Sea t t l e $2,196,875 SOLD

R ealo g ics S otheby's Inter national Realty | rsir. com

14 // KING C OUNT Y REPORT //

KIN G COUNT Y

K

ing County is by far the most populous county in the state, an estimated 150% larger than second-ranked Pierce County on its southwest border.

King County is home to all ten of Washington State’s Fortune 500 companies, with five of them headquartered in Seattle: Amazon, Starbucks, Nordstrom, Expeditors International, and Alaska Air Group. Many of Washington State’s top-rated schools are also located here, including most of the SEVP private schools listed in the side bar on page 57.

There were $20.37 billion in single-family home sales in King County in 2017—14.9 percent more than the $17.73 billion sold in 2016—at a median price of $630,000.

The median price grew at a slightly lesser rate than selling volume, up by 14.6 percent from the 2016 price of $550,000.

There was little difference in the number of transactions in 2017: just 0.7 percent more, to 27,379 from 27,182 in 2016.

6TH KING COUNTY ADDED OVER 32,000 NEW RESIDENTS IN 2017, RANKING SIXTH IN THE NATION FOR GROWTH

Broadmoor | Seattle $ 3,4 9 5,0 0 0 SO L D

The slow growth was attributable to a lack of inventory, which has been tightening since last year. The median cumulative days on market in King County reached seven in the second quarter, and never rose higher than ten.

Realo g ics S otheby's Inter national Realty | 2 017/2018 Market Repor t

// KIT SAP C OUNT Y REPORT // 15

Kitsap County’s median single-family home selling price of $310,000 was 8.8 percent higher than the 2016 annual median price of $285,000. Yet the county saw $1.88 billion in single-family home sales in 2017, 19.5 percent more than in 2016. Although the trend in county home-selling transactions has been weakening year over year, at 7.3 percent growth, it remains stronger here than in King or Snohomish counties.

Nevertheless, in this primarily exurban region, Kitsap County home sales move more slowly than in the major employment centers east of Puget Sound.

Market times started the year at a median 29 cumulative days on market, and reached no fewer than nine in the second quarter.

Po u l s b o $ 1 ,4 0 0,0 0 0 SO L D

2 0 1 7 M E DIA N P R IC E F OR SI NG L E - FA M I LY HOM E S

$310,000

KITSAP COUNT Y

B

y a short ferry ride across Puget Sound, the Kitsap Peninsula and its adjacent islands offer waterfront homes, stunning city, sound, and mountain views and an easy getaway to bucolic scenes westward toward Hood Canal and the Olympic Peninsula. Areas in Kitsap County selected for community profiles include Bainbridge Island and Poulsbo.

The former’s proximity to Seattle means that Bainbridge Island in particular enjoys the best of exurban and rural lifestyles: for some, a place of refreshment after the daily commute; for others, a weekend hideaway or reward for retirement. Kitsap County is also home to military families and contractors at the Puget Sound Naval Shipyard at Bremerton.

Bainbridge Island $ 1 ,72 5,0 0 0 SO L D

R ealo g ics S otheby's Inter national Realty | rsir. com

16 // JEFFERSON C OUNT Y REPORT //

J EFFERSO N COUNT Y

B

anding the Olympic Peninsula from the Admiralty Inlet and Hood Canal in the east to the Pacific Ocean in the west, Jefferson County stretches from the resort community of Port Ludlow and historic Port Townsend into the remote wilderness of Olympic National Park.

Although home to many small businesses, Jefferson County is highly dependent on tourism and second-home investment.

The population is estimated to have grown by 4.6 percent from 2010 to 2017. Port Townsend, the county seat, is the county’s only incorporated town.

Single-family home selling transactions in Jefferson County are necessarily few, as this county is remote from any major employers. After a year of no change in single-family home transactions (623

in both 2015 and 2016), there was only a slight uptick in 2017, to 629 from 623. Market time did not quite reach as low as 24 median cumulative days on market in the second quarter.

Nevertheless, the quality of life has caused median prices in Jefferson County to rise above those of Island County and even exurban Skagit County, by 11.2 percent in 2017 to $342,000 from $307,500 in 2016.

As a result, 2017 selling volume was up by 12.8 percent, to $239.0 million from $211.9 million in 2016.

4.6

12.8

PERCENT POPULATION GROWTH FROM 2010-2017

PERCENT ANNUAL SALES VOLUME INCREASE JEFFERSON COUNTY

H a ze l Po i n t | Q u i l c e n e $875,000 SOLD

Realo g ics S otheby's Inter national Realty | 2 017/2018 Market Repor t

// SKAGIT C OUNT Y REPORT // 17

Bow $965,000 SOLD

SKAG IT COUNT Y

O

f Skagit, Island, and Jefferson counties, Skagit is the most convenient as a commuter point of origin, as the other two counties require either the combination of a long drive with a ferry ride or a very long drive without the ferry.

However, Skagit County bears its own constraints to growth, which at least in the short run will sustain the value of current housing and approved development.

The Skagit County Commission, various preservation groups and other interested parties have acted aggressively to protect farmland and open space in the most arable regions of the Skagit Valley, driving new development south and east of I-5, or west to Anacortes.

Single-family home selling transactions in primarily-rural Skagit County declined by 2.1 percent in 2017, to 2,114 from 2,160 in 2016. As a result, selling volume increased by only 6.5 percent, to $736.0 million from $691.2 million, despite an 11.2 percent increase in the median price. The shrinking number of home sales reflected

SKAGIT COUNTY SAW AN ANNUAL MEDIAN PRICE OF $312,250 IN 2017, UP BY 11.2 PERCENT FROM 2016.

a depletion of inventory north along I-5, as buyers drove to affordability from escalating prices in King and Snohomish Counties. Market times in Skagit County reached a historically low median of ten cumulative days on market in the second quarter of 2017.

Y E A R - O V E R -Y E A R M E D I A N PRICE CHANGE BY COUNTY 5.90%

San Juan Island

10.34%

2016

2017

10.33%

7.81%

9.86%

Snohomish

12.82%

10.66% 11.33%

Pierce 8.31%

Skagit

12.61%

Jefferson

11.22%

12.42%

9.62% 8.77%

Kitsap

13.40%

King 5%

7%

9%

11%

13%

14.55%

15%

17%

R ealo g ics S otheby's Inter national Realty | rsir. com

18 // PIERCE C OUNT Y REPORT //

P IERC E COUNT Y

T

he state’s second most populous county, Pierce County is 9.2 percent more populated than third-ranking Snohomish County, though that gap has been gradually reduced.

In 2017, the number of single-family home sales in Pierce County rose by 8.0 percent, to 16,169 from 14,968 in 2016. This increase was slightly greater than that seen in Kitsap County, and significantly higher than the rates in King and Snohomish Counties. As a result, Pierce County selling volume increased by 20.25 percent, to $5.54 billion from $4.6 billion, despite median price growth that underperformed the aforementioned counties (11.3 percent higher, to $308,000 from $276,660). Market times also accelerated, to a median of eight cumulative days on market in 2017 Q2.

Fo x I s l a n d $1,225,000 SOLD

THE SELLING VOLUME IN PIERCE COUNTY INCREASED BY 20.25 PERCENT YEAR-OVER-YEAR TO $5.54 BILLION.

Realo g ics S otheby's Inter national Realty | 2 017/2018 Market Repor t

PIERCE COUNTY HOME OF THE 2015 U.S. OPEN CHAMPIONSHIP

// SNOHOMISH C OUNT Y REPORT // 19

Lake Stevens $ 1 ,4 0 0,0 0 0 SO L D

SNO H O M I S H COUNT Y

S

nohomish County’s median home price in 2017 was $440,000, a 12.8 percent increase from the 2016 annual median price of $390,000. Some of this growth has occurred naturally as buyers are drawn to the quality of life in this county, which is a midway point between the city amenities in Seattle and the natural wonders of the North Cascades.

However, another factor is the pricing out of middle-class households from the gentrifying urban neighborhoods and suburbanizing rural areas of King County.

Single-family home selling volume in Snohomish County reached $5.92 billion in 2017, 16.0 percent higher than the 2016 figure of $5.1 billion.

2 0 1 6 M E DIA N P R IC E I N SNOHOM I SH C OU N T Y

$440,000

The number of Snohomish County singlefamily home sales rose by a modest 3.1 percent in 2017, to 12,400 from 12,030 in 2016. As in King County, the median cumulative days on market reached seven in the second quarter of 2017.

1.05 MONTHS OF SUPPLY FOR 2017

R ealo g ics S otheby's Inter national Realty | rsir. com

20 // ISL AND & SAN JUAN C OUNT Y REPORT S //

16.8% YEAR-OVER-YEAR SINGLE-FAMILY HOME SALES VOLUME GROWTH ISLAND COUNTY

THE KITSAP PENINSULA AND MANY ISLANDS OF THESE COUNTIES OFFER WATERFRONT HOMES, STUNNING CITY, SOUND, AND MOUNTAIN VIEWS

I S L A ND & SA N J UA N COU NT I ES

R

ustic Island County saw just under $750 million in singlefamily home sales in 2017, up by 16.8 percent from the $642.2 million sold in 2016. Selling prices in 2017 were up by a lesser 7.8 percent, to $339,000 from $314,450 in 2016. Selling transactions on Whidbey and Camano Islands were 6.3 percent higher, to 1,861 in 2017 from 1,750 in 2016. Island County is sufficiently remote that only a few Seattle or Eastside workers choose to commute from here.

This has meant that even second quarter market times have not yet broken below two weeks.

Single-family home selling transactions in San Juan County were up by 2.8 percent in 2017, to 325 from 316 in 2016. In this vacation, retirement, and telecommuting

Fre e l a n d $2,895,000 SOLD

Realo g ics S otheby's Inter national Realty | 2 017/2018 Market Repor t

market where homes have been known to remain listed for months before selling, the median cumulative days on market reached 46 in the second quarter of 2017.

The median selling price of a single-family home in the San Juans surpassed the halfmillion dollar mark in the past year, rising by 10.3 percent to $520,000 from $471,250 in 2016. Selling volume rose by 15.1 percent, to $229.0 million from $198.9 million.

// C OMMUNITIES AROUND THE PUGET SOUND // 21

29

AT A GLANCE

COMMUNITIES AROUND THE PUGET SOUND 2 0 1 7 Y E A R - O V E R -Y E A R M E D I A N P R I C E C H A N G E

Central Seattle Queen Anne/Magnolia

13.20% 5.80%

North Seattle

14.10%

Ballard/Green Lake

13.60%

West Seattle

15.90%

Southeast Seattle

20.40%

SODO/Beacon Hill

18.90%

Belltown/Downtown*

19.00%

Bellevue West of I-405

17.00%

Kirkland

12.40%

Mercer Island

17.40%

Bellevue East of I-405

19.30%

Redmond

16.60%

Sammamish

11.00%

Eastside/South of I-90

15.90%

Woodinville

11.10%

Shoreline

17.20%

Kenmore

13.20%

Burien

13.00%

Renton

10.00%

Bainbridge Island

13.00%

Poulsbo

13.50%

Lynnwood

10.20%

Edmonds

15.70%

Anacortes

8.30%

Snohomish

8.00%

Everett

7.50%

Camano Island

17.40%

Gig Harbor/Fox Island 5.0%

8.70% 7.0%

14.6% MEDIAN HOME PRICE INCREASE, KING COUNTY

9.0%

11.0%

13.0%

15.0%

17.0%

19.0%

21.0%

The metropolitan region comprising the city of Seattle, the Eastside, Snohomish and Pierce counties, led the nation in home price growth for the entire year.

tures of our 29 key counties around the sound with an in-depth look at statistics from the 2017 home-buying year.

In this section, we describe some of the key draws for homebuyers and other fea-

The statistics in this section have been extracted from the NWMLS database and analyzed by RSIR. As such, the NWMLS requires notice that they are not compiled or published by the Northwest Multiple Listing Service.*Belltown/ Downtown value reflects resale condominium statistics for 2017.

R ealo g ics S otheby's Inter national Realty | rsir. com

23.0%

22 // METHOD OLO GY //

FORMAT & REASONING WHAT IS THE MARK OF A HIGH-END OR LUXURY PROPERTY IN THE PUGET SOUND?

A

few years ago, many might have said that it was a million-dollar price tag. That is no longer the case, as million-dollar sales of homes in metropolitan Seattle are frequent, and median prices in Bellevue and Mercer Island now exceed a million dollars by the hundreds of thousands.

Yet the same buyers who drop a million dollars or more on an Eastside home may pay substantially less than that on a second home in Poulsbo or Anacortes. Is such a buyer a high-end customer on the Eastside, but an entry-level customer in these locations? Probably not, even though the price they pay in these outlying communities may be far less than seven figures. The homes they buy there are just as likely to be luxury homes, but prices in these locations are generally lower.

Herein lies the problem: a fixed price threshold never was

a very good signal of value across the region. A better way of evaluating prices from one community to another is to look at local prices by percentile rank-that is, counting from the bottom, what price would be reached when 25

M ATC HI N G P E RC E N TI LES TO S EG M E NTS H i g he r T ha n

Lowe r Than

2 5 th p ctl

B ot tom quar ter

Top t hree quarters

5 0 th p ctl

B ot tom half

Top half

75 th p ctl

Lower t hree quarters

Top quarter

9 0 th p ctl

Lower 9/10t hs

Top tent h

9 5 th p ctl

Lower 95 percent

Top 5 perce nt

percent of prices are counted (the 25th percentile)? What price would be higher than half of all prices counted (the 50th percentile range, generally equivalent to the median price)?

This is a superior method of understanding how price thresholds compare across different areas of the region, whether they are right next door or at opposite ends of the Sound. This provides clients with deeper insight for evaluating options among their target markets.

We advise stopping short of permanently attaching "entry-level," "high-end," or "luxury" to any of these price thresholds or the bands among them. However, these may be found to be relevant in many instances. For example, few would dispute that homes priced at or above the 95th percentile in Queen Anne or on Mercer Island would be regarded as priced for luxury. In exurban locations, attachment of a house to acreage may complicate assignment of these qualitative segments to price bands.

Another benefit of using percentiles in addition to the customary measures of central tendency (average and median values) is the ability to trace trends within a community, area, or region. Internal price trends may be highly similar in those communities where home values tend to be intermingled. Others exhibit concentrations of wealth in certain pockets, and these tend to show divergent price trends over time. This kind of information is of great value to property developers and investors who need to look ahead to see where prices are going in order to maximize returns.

To view more market analysis with percentile charts visit RSIR.com/MarketReport

Realo g ics S otheby's Inter national Realty | 2 017/2018 Market Repor t

// SEAT TLE • C OMMUNIT Y REPORT S // 23

Denny Blaine | Seattle $1,868,350 SOLD

The numbers of homes sold in the second and third quarters

have subsided in the past two years from an outsized seasonal rush in 2015. In 2017 overall, single-family transactions in Central Seattle slightly declined by 1.2 percent, to 919 from 930 in 2016. Sales were brisk, with the median cumulative days on market bottoming at seven in the second quarter.

As in other areas of Seattle, deviations from the listed price favored home sellers over buyers, although by slim margins at higher prices later in 2017.

Compensating for lackluster fourth-quarter sales in the previous two years, Central Seattle home prices at the 75th and 90th percentile saw big gains in 2017, rising by 35 percent and 26.7

$1,000,000

$700,000 $600,000 $500,000 $400,000

2014

2015

$775,000

$800,000

$877,000

$900,000

$696,500

T

his area comprises a diverse patchwork of both affluent and middle-income neighborhoods northeast of downtown. Some, including Madison Park, Denny Blaine, and Leschi, offer frontage on Lake Washington; but Capitol Hill and Madison Valley are also included. There were $998 million in single-family home sales in Central Seattle in 2017, at a median selling price of $877,000−13.2 percent higher than the 2016 annual median price of $775,000.

C E N T R A L S E AT T L E :

M E D I A N S A L E S P R I C E & D AYS O N M A R K E T

$675,000

C ENT RA L SEATT LE

$300,000 $200,000 $100,000 $0 Median Selling Price

2016

10.2 10 9.8 9.6 9.4 9.2 9 8.8 8.6 8.4 8.2 8 7.8

2017

Days on Market

percent, respectively. Quarterly prices at the lower of these two thresholds now regularly exceed one million dollars. However, "entry-level" home prices (as measured by the 25th percentile price) were also up by double digits in all four quarters of the year.

Bedroom counts in Central Seattle compare well with those in Queen Anne and Magnolia next door. Yet while two- and three-bedroom homes here tend to sell for a few percentage points less, four- and five­-bedroom homes tend to draw higher selling prices than in Queen Anne and Magnolia.

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24 // SEAT TLE • C OMMUNIT Y REPORT S //

Magnolia | Seattle $1,900,000 SOLD

Yet single-family home transactions in Queen Anne and Magnolia were up by 14.5 percent, to 772 from 674. Moreover, the numbers of these sales were progressively higher year over year for the first three quarters of 2017: up by 12.2 percent in the first quarter, 19.3 percent in the second, and 33.9 percent in the third. As in the rest of Seattle, listings sold quickly, with quarterly medians of no more than ten cumulative days on market throughout the year.

The single-digit increase in the single-family home selling price was influenced by year-over-year declines in the third quarter at and above the 75th-percentile price. However, prices at and below the median rose steadily throughout 2017, with doubledigit increases in the fourth quarter year over year.

$894,100

$900,000 $800,000 $700,000 $600,000 $500,000

$946,000

$1,000,000

$783,000

I

n 2017, the median single-family home price of $946,000 in Queen Anne and Magnolia, highest among all eight areas of Seattle, was just 5.8 percent greater than the 2016 median price of $894,100. Due to comparatively few annual sales in these desirable neighborhoods (772 in 2017), selling volume was $846.2 million—least among the city’s affluent northern areas.

QUEEN ANNE/MAGNOLIA:

M E D I A N S A L E S P R I C E & D AYS O N M A R K E T

$702,506

QUEEN ANNE/ MAGNOLIA

$400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000 $0 2014

2015

Median Selling Price

2016

10.2 10 9.8 9.6 9.4 9.2 9 8.8 8.6 8.4 8.2 8 7.8

2017

Days on Market

These dynamics were reflected in the differences in prices by bedroom counts between Queen Anne/Magnolia and Central Seattle—an emergent pricing phenomenon in those communities since 2014. While buyers were offering more for premium single-family homes in Central Seattle, the prices of four- and five-bedroom homes in Queen Anne and Magnolia were comparatively lower (by 4.2 percent and 3.3 percent, respectively) as premium prices there were declining or flat.

Meanwhile, as entry-level prices in Queen Anne/Magnolia were rising, two- and three-bedroom homes were selling for respectively 7.0 percent and 4.1 percent more than their Central Seattle equivalents.

Realo g ics S otheby's Inter national Realty | 2 017/2018 Market Repor t

// SEAT TLE • C OMMUNIT Y REPORT S // 25

Windermere | Seattle $4,300,000 SOLD

The number of single-family home sales in North Seattle was 5.5 percent lower in 2017, to 1,174 from 1,242 in 2016.

Fourth-quarter transactions were down sharply—by more than 20 percent year over year, to 279 from 351. However, this was just a correction from outsized sales in 2016 Q4; 2017 Q4 sales were almost equal to the number of sales in 2015 Q4 (to 279 from 280, respectively).

Median cumulative days on market were almost as steady as in neighboring Ballard and Green Lake, not exceeding eight days during any quarter of 2017. Bidding on homes for sale drove selling prices in North Seattle higher at all thresholds, with premiums to the listing price reaching double digits at the 25th, 50th, and 75th price percentiles in this market.

8.2

$800,000

8

$600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000

$680,000

$700,000

$776,000

$900,000

$575,850

S

ingle-family home selling volume reached $1.04 billion in North Seattle, at a median selling price of $776,000, 14.1 percent higher than the 2016 annual median price of $680,000.

N O R T H S E AT T L E :

M E D I A N S A L E S P R I C E & D AYS O N M A R K E T

$520,000

N O RT H S E AT T L E

7.8 7.6 7.4 7.2 7

$200,000

6.8

$100,000

6.6

$0

6.4 2014

2015 Median Selling Price

2016

2017

Days on Market

prices at the latter bound, the top end for entry-level buyers, were up by 5.4 percent in the first quarter year over year, 18.8 percent in the second, 24.7 in the third, and 9.8 percent year over year in the fourth quarter.

Although dollar selling volume in North Seattle is substantially lower than in Ballard and Green Lake, homes sold in both areas were priced similarly on the basis of bedroom counts. Three-, four-, and fivebedroom homes sold at prices equal to those in Ballard; but buyers of two-bedroom homes in North Seattle paid 6.9 percent less.

North Seattle’s quarterly single-family home price gains in 2017 were strongest at the 50th and 25th percentiles. Home

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26 // SEAT TLE • C OMMUNIT Y REPORT S //

Green Lake | Seattle $1,130,000 SOLD

Year over year, the number of homes sold in Ballard surged in the first quarter (421 homes vs. 316 in 2016 Q1), then subsided to seasonally normal levels through the end of the year. A total of 2,129 single-family homes were sold in Ballard and Green Lake in 2017, 2.1 percent more than the in 2016.

Sales moved as quickly in this area as anywhere else in the region. The median cumulative days on market held steady at seven days all through 2017. Home selling deviations from listed prices were regularly in favor of sellers.

$700,000

8

$600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000

$750,000

8.2

$659,950

$800,000

$585,000

T

here were $1.72 billion in single-family home sales in the Ballard and Green Lake area of Seattle, at a median selling price of $750,000. This was 13.6 percent higher than the 2016 annual median price of $659,950, just short of advancing home prices in neighboring North Seattle.

BA L L A R D/G R E E N L A K E :

M E D I A N S A L E S P R I C E & D AYS O N M A R K E T

$517,000

BALLAR D/ G REEN L AK E

7.8 7.6 7.4 7.2 7

$200,000

6.8

$100,000

6.6

$0

6.4 2014

2015 Median Selling Price

2016

2017

Days on Market

percent in Q2, 13.9 percent in Q3, and 16.8 percent in Q4. The 90thpercentile price rose most quickly from July through December, with 2017 Q4 prices 27.9 percent higher than those of 2016 Q4.

In 2017, three- to five-bedroom homes sold in Ballard were priced equally to homes sold in North Seattle, while selling prices of two-bedroom homes in the former exceeded those in the latter by 7.4 percent.

Single-family home prices at the 25th, 50th, and 75th percentiles rose each quarter on a year-over-year basis, with those gains registering double digits at the median price each quarter. For example, quarterly home prices at the 50thpercentile mark rose by 10.9 percent year over year in Q1, 13.5

Realo g ics S otheby's Inter national Realty | 2 017/2018 Market Repor t

// SEAT TLE • C OMMUNIT Y REPORT S // 27

North Admiral | Seattle $1,111,000 SOLD

WEST SE AT T L E

W E S T S E AT T L E :

M E D I A N S A L E S P R I C E & D AYS O N M A R K E T

$700,000

13.8

West Seattle saw $1.01 billion in single­family home sales in 2017, at a median selling price of $605,000-15.9 percent higher than the 2016 annual median price of $522,000. While these prices may seem modest compared with other areas of the city, the 95th-percentile selling price in West Seattle breached one million dollars back in 2016; and the top five percent of homes sold in this area are forecast to exceed this threshold through 2018 Q4.

$300,000 $200,000

$605,000

$465,000

$400,000

$410,000

I

n 2017, the number of single-family home sales in West Seattle was exactly one more than in 2016, respectively 1,671 to 1,670. Note that some variance will be found among our West Seattle statistics and those obtained directly from the NWMLS. RSIR Research has painstakingly adjusted the locations of Seattle home sales in recent years, 314 of which were attributed to West Seattle though being actually located to the south in Burien.

$500,000

$522,000

$600,000

13.2 12.6 12 11.4 10.8 10.2 9.6 9

$100,000

8.4 7.8

$0 2014

2015 Median Selling Price

2016

2017

Days on Market

Home sales are moving as quickly here as elsewhere in Seattle, and at the same pace in the first three quarters of the past two years. However, West Seattle’s median cumulative days on market in the fourth quarter were reduced to 10 from 12 in 2016 Q4.

Demand is pushing prices higher from the entry level, as 25th-percentile selling prices increased year over year by 16.9 percent in the first quarter of 2017, 25 percent in the second, 24.2 in the third, and 25.8 in the fourth quarter.

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28 // SEAT TLE • C OMMUNIT Y REPORT S //

Seward Park | Seattle $762,000 SOLD

$700,000

$400,000 $300,000 $200,000

even in the second quarter, but remained at nine or ten for the rest of the year-still a very fast-moving market highly favoring sellers. This was confirmed by selling prices that were consistently higher than listed prices in this area.

The 2017 median single-family home price in Southeast Seattle was $613,875−a year­-over-year increase of 20 percent, the fastest growth rate in the city. Selling volume rose at an even higher rate, by 32.2 percent (from $398.1 billion to $526.3 billion). This was due to a number of high e­ nd sales combined with price increases across all bands. The 25th- and 50th-­percentile prices grew by double digits year over year in the second, third and fourth quarters of 2017. Fourth-quar-

13.2 12.6 12 11.4 10.8 10.2 9.6 9

$100,000

8.4 7.8

$0 2014

2015 Median Selling Price

The median cumulative days on market in 2017 reached

$510,000

$500,000

$613,875

13.8

$600,000

$446,250

A

s in Downtown Seattle, statistics in smaller areas like Southeast Seattle can be moved by projects or localized surges in sales. In 2017, the number of first-quarter single-family home sales in Southeast Seattle was up by 70 percent year over year (163 in 2017 Q1 vs 96 in 2016 Q1, a lackluster quarter). Sales had smoothed out by the end of 2017, which ended with 13.2 percent more sales than 2016 (762 to 673).

S O U T H E A S T S E AT T L E :

M E D I A N S A L E S P R I C E & D AYS O N M A R K E T

$390,000

SOUTHEAST SEATTLE

2016

2017

Days on Market

ter prices exceeded those of 2016 by more than 24 percent at every threshold, and by 43.9 percent at the 95th-percentile price.

Even as prices in Southeast Seattle rocket higher, according to bedroom counts, single-family homes are still a bargain here.

Compared with those in Central Seattle, three-, four-, and fivebedroom homes in Southeast Seattle are respectively 28.3 percent, 44.8 percent, and 56.5 percent less expensive.

Realo g ics S otheby's Inter national Realty | 2 017/2018 Market Repor t

// SEAT TLE • C OMMUNIT Y REPORT S // 29

North Beacon Hill | Seattle $550,000 SOLD

The 2017 median single-family home price in SODO/Bea-

con Hill was $585,000, 18.9 percent higher than the 2016 median price. This was the second-fastest rate of growth in the city after Southeast Seattle. The pace of selling slowed to a median cumulative days on market of 13 in the first quarter, but shortened to seven days in the second quarter and remained brisk through the end of the year.

At each price threshold from the 25th percentile through the 95th percentile, single-family home selling prices rose by double digits year over year from the second through the

12

$700,000

11.4

$400,000 $300,000 $200,000

$492,000

$500,000

$585,000

$600,000

$425,000

T

he number of single-family home sales in Beacon Hill and South Downtown Seattle was up by 49.2 percent year over year in the first quarter, and higher again in the third and fourth quarters, by 8.7 percent and 20.3 percent, respectively. For the year, selling transactions were up by an even 12 percent, to 485 from 433. Yet the overall number of sales for 2017 was still lowest among the eight areas of Seattle, hence the comparatively low selling volume of $286.7 million, in which the area's urbanization was also a factor.

S O D O/ B E AC O N H I L L :

M E D I A N S A L E S P R I C E & D AYS O N M A R K E T

$350,000

SO DO/BE ACO N HILL

10.8 10.2 9.6 9 8.4 7.8 7.2

$100,000

6.6

$0

6 2014

2015 Median Selling Price

2016

2017

Days on Market

fourth quarters of 2017. Fourth-quarter prices were generally higher by more than 20 percent year over year, and the 25th-percentile price was up by 31.3 percent.

SODO/Beacon Hill is one of the areas affected by recording errors in listing locations, which have been corrected in RSIR's statistics. Some homes sold in SODO/Beacon Hill were mis-recorded as located in Southeast Seattle. Prices of three-, four-, and five-bedroom homes sold in the former of these areas were more affordable than those in the latter, by 3.8 percent, 11.8 percent, and 3.0 percent respectively.

R ealo g ics S otheby's Inter national Realty | rsir. com

30 // SEAT TLE • C OMMUNIT Y REPORT S //

1521 2nd Avenue | Downtown $ 2 ,4 5 0,0 0 0 SO L D

When opened, new projects consequently have an out sized impact on units and volume sold. This was evident in recent trends when the Insignia Towers at Bell and Battery were opened for occupancy in 2015 and 2016. Once those units were absorbed, sales reverted to a downtown condo reselling trend below 150 units per quarter. A parallel impact can be seen on the median cumulative days on market, which fell to zero when these tower projects were launched, then rebounded to seven to nine days quarterly for resales.

$700,000

$400,000 $300,000

$637,500

$500,000

$640,000

25

$600,000 $564,000

B

elltown and Downtown combined are, in multiple ways, unlike any other area of Seattle or the broader Puget Sound region. Firstly, the area is completely urbanized: there is no single-family housing left downtown.

Secondly, this area is ground­zero for the widely-discussed "Condominium Conundrum" in Seattle, where nearly all multifamily construction in recent years has been allocated for apartments. As a result, the number of downtown sales is historically low amidst the greatest run-up in home prices in the city's history.

B E L LT O W N / D O W N T O W N :

M E D I A N S A L E S P R I C E & D AYS O N M A R K E T

$440,000

BELLTOW N / DOWN TOWN

20

15

$200,000

10

$100,000 $0

5 2014

2015 Median Selling Price

2016

2017

Days on Market

from 2016 to 2017 ($640,000 to $637,500). Most units in the second tower had been absorbed by the fourth quarter of 2016, so that fourth-quarter selling price trends more accurately represent selling prices downtown. These were up 27.9 percent year over year at the 25th percentile, 22.2 percent at the 50th percentile, and 14.4 percent at the 75th percentile.

Fourth-quarter prices per square foot were respectively $717, $787, and $892 at these percentiles, and $1,013 at the 90th percentile.

Sales of these tower project units influenced the median price trend in these years as well, resulting in a 0.4 percent decline

Realo g ics S otheby's Inter national Realty | 2 017/2018 Market Repor t

// EAST SIDE: L AKE WASHINGT ON • C OMMUNIT Y REPORT S // 31

Meydenbauer | Bellevue $2,950,000 SOLD

In 2017, single-family home selling volume in West Bellevue and the Four Points crossed the one-billion-dollar mark, reaching $1.05 billion, 14.75 percent higher than the 2016 figure of $912.7 million. A second milestone was achieved when the median selling price surpassed two million dollars, ending the year at $2.27 million, a 7.0 percent increase compared to last year.

$2,500,000

$1,500,000 $1,000,000

$1,940,000

$2,000,000

$2,270,000

22

$1,752,000

N

WMLS Area 520 includes not only West Bellevue, but also its “satellites:” the affluent enclaves of Clyde Hill and Medina and the even more privileged neighborhoods of Yarrow Point and Hunts Point. Of these communities, Hunts Point, grew by 11.2 percent from 2010 through 2015 while the rest grew by 8.0 to 8.7 percent. St. Thomas School, an SEVP private school, is located in Medina and Bellevue High School, ranked third in the state and 160th in the nation by U.S. News, is also located in this area. Fortune 500 company Expedia is currently headquartered downtown but will be moving to Seattle’s Interbay neighborhood by 2019.

A number of other technology companies including Amazon and Microsoft have offices here.

WEST BELLEVUE:

M E D I A N S A L E S P R I C E & D AYS O N M A R K E T

$1,444,000

BELLEVU E WEST O F I - 4 0 5

20 18 16 14

$500,000

12

$0

10 2014

2015

Median Selling Price

2016

2017

Days on Market

This area is comprised of highly desirable neighborhoods of very limited size with, atypically, high variability in prices among properties. Due to the ongoing shortage of homes for sale, the number of single-family home transactions in this area actually fell by 7.0 percent in 2017, to 396 from 426 in 2016. Fourth quarter market times were uncharacteristically shorter than third quarter market times, and the median cumulative days on market reached eight in the second quarter of 2017.

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32 // EAST SIDE: L AKE WASHINGT ON • C OMMUNIT Y REPORT S //

We s t o f M a r k e t | K i r k l a n d $4,200,000 SOLD

KIRKLAN D

KIRKLAND:

M E D I A N S A L E S P R I C E & D AYS O N M A R K E T

$900,000

The market is being pushed from the bottom. Competitive bidding drove the 25th-percentile price higher than the listed price by 10 percent and 10.5 percent in Q1 and Q2, respectively.

At the 75th-percentile price, the premium to sellers peaked at 5.5 percent in 2017 Q3, and reversed to -1.9 percent in Q4. In the top quarter by selling price, single-family homes in 2017 Q1 actually sold for less year over year; but this condition was reversed in the second quarter, and price increases across all bands were into double digits by the fourth quarter. Entrylevel prices were consistently strong−the lowest year-over-

$720,800

$500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000

13.2 12 10.8 9.6

$615,000

$600,000 $551,000

D

ue to the same supply constraints afflicting Bellevue in 2017, Kirkland saw slightly fewer single-family home transactions year over year− down by 3.0 percent from 2016, to 1,233 from 1,271.

Kirkland's market has highly favored sellers. In 2017, the median single-family home price in Kirkland rose by 12.4 percent, to $810,000 from $720,800 in 2016. Median cumulative days on market in Kirkland reached six in 2017 Q2. Fourth­quarter market times were sharply reduced, from 27 days in 2014, to 17 in 2015, 10 in 2016, and eight in 2017.

$700,000

$810,000

14.4

$800,000

8.4 7.2

$100,000

6

$0 2014

2015 Median Selling Price

2016

2017

Days on Market

year quarterly increase at the 25th-percentile price was 17.4 percent in the third quarter.

Kirkland continues to offer a similar quality of life as homes in Bellevue at a discount to Bellevue prices. Three-, four-, and five-bedroom homes in Kirkland sold for respectively 18.3 percent, 25.1 percent, and 18.5 percent less than those of its southerly neighbor.

Realo g ics S otheby's Inter national Realty | 2 017/2018 Market Repor t

// EAST SIDE: L AKE WASHINGT ON • C OMMUNIT Y REPORT S // 33

Mercer Island $4,125,000 SOLD

As an island surrounded by Lake Washington, the community faces some constraints on further development solutions and new development within the past five years has involved trading a few single-family homes for new multifamily housing. A current moratorium on new subdivisions and a more stringent design review process for buildings in the downtown core are suggestive of a city rethinking its future in light of significant demand and growth.

This composition is likely to change in the years ahead as a new Link light rail line is planned to expand across Mercer Island's north end; connecting the City of Bellevue with the City of Seattle and providing multifamily alternatives close to the metro lines.

24 22

$1,200,000 $1,000,000 $800,000 $600,000

$1,320,000

$1,400,000

$1,550,000

$1,800,000 $1,600,000

$1,199,750

M

ercer Island, a bedroom community of Seattle and the region, is generally regarded as part of the Eastside, but bears a "206" area code and is effectively equidistant between Seattle and Bellevue. Its population is estimated to have grown 7.4 percent from 2011 through 2016.

Mercer Island High Schools is ranked among the top ten public schools in the state by U.S. News.

MERCER ISLAND:

M E D I A N S A L E S P R I C E & D AYS O N M A R K E T

$1,082,000

MERCER ISLAND

20 18 16 14 12

$400,000

10

$200,000

8

$0

6 2014

2015

Median Selling Price

2016

2017

Days on Market

Mercer Island is the most affluent single-family home market in the region of statistically measurable size. Transaction sales had been down by 12.4 percent, from 330 in 2015 to 289 in 2016; but 2017 saw these rebound to 331 transactions.

Homes on Mercer Island remained on the market as much as two weeks longer in 2017 Q4 than in Bellevue or Kirkland, but patient sellers were rewarded. The median selling price in 2017 rose by 17.4 percent, to $1,550,000 from $1,320,000 in 2016. Selling volume was prolific, exploding higher by an even 30 percent to $617.6 million from $474.9 million.

R ealo g ics S otheby's Inter national Realty | rsir. com

34 // EAST SIDE: L AKE SAMMAMISH • C OMMUNIT Y REPORT S //

Lakemont Heights | Bellevue $1,360,000 SOLD

Flanked by Lake Sammamish on the east, residents prefer the combination of the Bellevue School District and lakefront or lake views on the western shore at a fraction of the price of West Bellevue, especially when compared with Lake Washington waterfront.

The City of Bellevue and much of the greater Eastside are highly desirable to international homebuyers, especially Chinese. Such buyers are drawn by the access to excellent public and private schools, prospects for capital appreciation (as noted by recent rises in the market), the area’s demographics and cultural offerings.

$1,000,000 28

$700,000 $600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000

$725,000

$800,000

$865,000

$900,000

$630,000

W

ith an estimated 2015 population of 135,000, Bellevue is the fifth most populous city in Washington State. Once a bedroom community for the city of Seattle, for decades Bellevue has been a city in its own right. This area of Bellevue East of I-405 is home to Interlake and Sammamish High schools, respectively rated sixth and ninth in the state by U.S. News.

EAST BELLEVUE:

M E D I A N S A L E S P R I C E & D AYS O N M A R K E T

$570,000

BELLEVU E EAST O F I - 4 0 5

24 20 16

$200,000

12

$100,000 $0

8 2014

2015

Median Selling Price

2016

2017

Days on Market

sales in 2016. East Bellevue has been historically more affordable than West Bellevue, and the demand for homes in this area among aspirational buyers finally eclipsed supply in 2017. As a result, selling volume in East Bellevue slid by 3.4 percent in 2017, to $478.7 million from $495.6 million, despite skyrocketing median price growth of 19.3 percent−from $725,000 in 2016 to $865,000 in 2017. Except for the third quarter, market times spent the year at a median seven cumulative days on market.

In 2017, the number of single-family home sales in East Bellevue fell sharply: by 18.8 percent to 485, compared to 597

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// EAST SIDE: L AKE SAMMAMISH • C OMMUNIT Y REPORT S // 35

Redmond $851,000 SOLD

REDMON D

13.6

$900,000

12.4

$800,000

$500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000

As further proof of unwavering demand, 2017 selling prices of single-family homes in Redmond were up by 12.4 percent over prices in 2016, to $873,500 from $748,925. While

10

7.6 6.4 5.2

$0

4 2014

As observed elsewhere in the region, these declines were due to a shortage of homes for sale, and not to reduced demand.

Listed homes sold quickly: Redmond's quarterly pattern of median cumulative days on market mirrored that of Kirkland−seven days in Q1, six in Q2, seven again in Q3, and eight in Q4. Alone among the communities east of Lake Sammamish, Redmond has seen competitive bidding proceed nearly uninterrupted at all price points over the past three years.

Among homes selling at the 25th- and 50th-percentile prices, premiums to sellers peaked at about nine percent above listed prices in 2017 Q2.

11.2

8.8

$670,000

$600,000

$748,925

$700,000

$873,500

$1,000,000

$650,000

I

n 2017, the number of single-family homes sold in Redmond declined for a second consecutive year, down by 6.7 percent from transactions in 2016, which were down by 8.8 percent from those of 2015. The sharpest reductions came in the third and fourth quarters. (The numbers of sales in 2017, 2016, and 2015 were 1,010, 1,082, and 1,187 respectively.)

REDMOND:

M E D I A N S A L E S P R I C E & D AYS O N M A R K E T

2015

Median Selling Price

2016

2017

Days on Market

home prices overall were rising, high­end home selling prices−indicated by those at the 90th and 95th percentiles­−turned negative after five straight quarters of double-digit growth. Prices in lower bands continued to rise through the end of the year.

Redmond and neighboring Sammamish are symbiotic communities whose prices are increasingly similar. In 2017, prices of two ­bedroom homes were 12.4 percent higher than those in Sammamish; but homes with bedroom counts of three or more were generally priced within two percentage points between the two cities.

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36 // EAST SIDE: L AKE SAMMAMISH • C OMMUNIT Y REPORT S //

Sammamish $1,300,000 SOLD

SAMMAMI S H

Sammamish saw single­family home sales increase in 2017−by seven percent, from 1,012 to 1,083. Transaction sales peaked in the third quarter at 13.0 percent growth year over year.

As at Redmond and several other Eastside communities, the median cumulative days on market at both Sammamish and Issaquah reached lows of six in the second quarter.

The median price of a single-family home in Sammamish rose by 11.0 percent in 2017, to $955,000 from $860,500 in 2016.

High­-end new construction drove selling volume to increase at an even faster rate: by 20.2 percent in 2017, to $1.12 billion from $934.2 million in 2016.

18

$1,000,000

16 $860,500

$800,000

$400,000 $200,000

14 12 10

$765,000

$600,000

$955,000

$1,200,000

$720,000

I

n Sammamish, homeowners find a stellar sense of community not found anywhere else. Waterfront opportunities abound, as Lake Sammamish provides an acquatic lifestyle with a fusion of water sports such as paddle boarding and kayaking, with avid swimmers. It's an ideal base for Eastsiders, who can easily access employment hubs in Redmond and Bellevue while enjoying lush, top-rated golf courses such as the Sahalee Golf Course, which hosts PGA events.

SAMMAMISH:

M E D I A N S A L E S P R I C E & D AYS O N M A R K E T

8

$0

6 2014

2015

Median Selling Price

2016

2017

Days on Market

While selling price growth in Sammamish was strong across all price bands, the 75th percentile of selling price rose most quickly, ranging from 12.7 percent to 17.9 percent quarterly over the year. Yet both here and at Issaquah, competitive bidding delivered premiums to sellers at and below the median price-peaking at 5.9 percent in Sammamish at the 25th-percentile price; and at 8.1 percent in Issaquah at the 50th­ percentile price.

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Newcastle $3,125,000 SOLD

This region is popular with families given its balance of urban amenities and natural surroundings, including Cougar Mountain Regional Wildland Park, Squak Mountain State Park and Tiger Mountain State Forest.

The I-90 connection offers quick access into both Bellevue and Seattle job centers as well as a gateway to the Cascade Mountain Range and Eastern Washington attractions.

Newcastle life is like no other, where residents are perfectly positioned only minutes from Bellevue and SeaTac Airport.

Having been named one of the Top 25 Best Places to Live

by Money Magazine, Newcastle has grabbed the attention of executives of major corporations headquartered in the Pacific Northwest. Not only does Newcastle enjoy award-

$900,000

$600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000

$719,995

$700,000

$834,151

11.2

$800,000

$633,000

N

WMLS Area 500 combines southern Bellevue and the neighborhoods of Issaquah south of I-90 with the towns of Eastgate and Newcastle. Costco, the thirdlargest retailer in the U.S., is headquartered adjacent to this area on the north side of I-90 in Issaquah. This area includes Newport High School in Bellevue and Issaquah High School— ranked second and twelfth respectively among the top public high schools in the state by U.S. News.

ISSAQUAH:

M E D I A N S A L E S P R I C E & D AYS O N M A R K E T

$564,800

EASTSID E / SOUTH O F I - 9 0

10 8.8 7.6 6.4

$200,000

5.2

$100,000 $0

4 2014

2015 Median Selling Price

2016

2017

Days on Market

winning schools, it offers wonderful outdoor amenities.

Transaction sales in Issaquah were virtually unchanged for a second consecutive year, with 777 single-family homes selling in 2017, compared with 770 in 2016, and 775 in 2015. Selling volume increased by 17.1 percent, to $691.2 million in 2017 from $590.2 million in 2016; and the median selling price rose by 15.9 percent, to $834,151 from $719,995.

The second quarter saw lssaquah's strongest quarterly price growth at both the 25th- and 50th-percentile selling prices, with year-overyear gains of 20.8 percent and 21.9 percent, respectively.

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38 // NORTH KING C OUNT Y • C OMMUNIT Y REPORT S //

Wo o d i n v i l l e $ 1 ,4 2 5,0 0 0 SO L D

WOODINVILLE

WOODINVILLE:

M E D I A N S A L E S P R I C E & D AYS O N M A R K E T

$900,000

16

$778,000

I

$700,000

$700,000

$800,000 14

Single-family home transactions in Woodinville rose to 589 in

increases were most impressive at the high end. The 75th-­percentile price saw the sharpest quarterly gain year over year−up 24.7 percent in 2017 Q2−and every quarter, double-digit increases from the preceding year.

2017 from 567 in 2016−an increase of 3.9 percent and a reversal from the preceding year, when home sales had declined by 1.0 percent. As in many areas in Seattle and the Eastside, the median cumulative days on market reached six in 2017 Q2, a quarter in which competitive bidding handed premiums to sellers of 8.3 percent over the listed price at the 50th-percentile price, and 4.8 percent over list at the 25th-percentile price.

$500,000 $400,000 $300,000

$605,450

$600,000 $562,500

n Woodinville, the heart of Washington's wine country, lush poplar trees herald toward distinctively Northwest homes situated within well-designed communities.

Sprawling estates offer space for those who need it, with equestrian lifestyle options complemented by growing city centers where entertainment abounds. In Woodinville, residents and visitors embark on wine tours by bicycle or limousine to popular destinations within the area's four wine districts.

12 10

$200,000

8

$100,000 $0

6 2014

2015 Median Selling Price

The median price in Woodinville advanced by 11.1 percent in 2017, to $778,000 from $700,000 in 2016. Magnified by increasing transactions, the selling volume rose by 18.8 percent, to $513.8 million from $432.4 million. Home price

Realo g ics S otheby's Inter national Realty | 2 017/2018 Market Repor t

2016

2017

Days on Market

// NORTH KING C OUNT Y • C OMMUNIT Y REPORT S // 39

Shoreline $601,951 SOLD SHORELINE:

M E D I A N S A L E S P R I C E & D AYS O N M A R K E T

$600,000

14

Proximity to I-5 and arterials routing traffic to Fremont and Lake Union draw commuting buyers to Shoreline, but home sales have suffered from the lack of supply that has impacted sales on the Eastside. Transactions were down by 1.9 percent in 2017 (to 654 from 667) on the heels of a 12.9 percent drop in 2016. Sales across all bands saw competitive bidding spike in the second quarter, with sellers enjoying an 11.7 percent premium at the 50th-percentile price.

$300,000 $200,000

$479,922

$400,000 $356,000

A

s Seattle's closest northern neighborhood, Shoreline is desirable for its close proximity to Seattle and its more recent transition from a rural area to a highly populated sleeper community. In the 1880s, homesteaders used its shores to float goods south toward Seattle and residents and visitors were drawn to Echo Lake for recreation. Today, Shoreline offers a number of parks including Richmond Beach Saltwater Park and Boeing Creek Park, which offers a wonderful trail system.

$415,000

$500,000

$569,975

SHORELINE

13.2 12.4 11.6 10.8 10 9.2 8.4 7.6

$100,000

6.8

$0

6 2014

2015 Median Selling Price

2016

2017

Days on Market

were some of the steepest measured in the region, especially in the third quarter of 2017: up by 27.3 percent at the 50th-percentile price, and higher by 29.1 percent at the 25th-percentile price.

In 2017, two-bedroom homes at Shoreline sold for 11.1 percent more than in neighboring Edmonds – a reversal from the pattern in recent years.

Shoreline's median price and selling volume increased by respectively 18.8 and 18.7 percent in 2017: the first rising to $569,975 from $479,922 in 2016; and the second, to $407.8 million from $343.7 million. Yearly increases by quarter

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40 // NORTH KING C OUNT Y • C OMMUNIT Y REPORT S //

Kenmore $705,000 SOLD

KENMORE

KENMORE:

M E D I A N S A L E S P R I C E & D AYS O N M A R K E T

$800,000

22

Kenmore did not see the same results of competitive bidding enjoyed by sellers in the other towns of North King County.

Yet the median price of a single-family home advanced more rapidly than in Woodinville by 14.2 percent, to $685,000 in 2017 from $600,000 in 2016. Selling volume increased by 8.5 percent, to $277.6 million from $255.8 over the year. Selling price gains spiked in the third quarter, increasing year over year by 21.4 percent at the 75th percentile of selling price; by 22.8 percent at the 50th percentile; and by 30.0 percent at the 25th percentile.

$300,000

$600,000

$400,000

$544,100

$500,000 $450,000

A

n Eastside town at the northern end of Lake Washington, Kenmore saw single­family home transactions fall by 6.5 percent in 2017, to 387 from 414 in 2016. The market time shortened to six median cumulative days in 2017 Q2, as it did in so many other communities nearby. In Kenmore however, homes not sold until the fourth quarter remained a median 17.5 days, more than a week longer than in 2016 Q4 or any other quarter since 2015.

$600,000

$685,000

$700,000 18

14

$200,000

10

$100,000 $0

6 2014

2015 Median Selling Price

2016

2017

Days on Market

median selling prices of four-bedroom homes at the former have ranged from 17.2 percent to 23.7 percent less than the latter.

Single-family homes in Kenmore consistently draw lower prices than homes in neighboring Woodinville. Since 2014,

Realo g ics S otheby's Inter national Realty | 2 017/2018 Market Repor t

// SOUTH KING C OUNT Y • C OMMUNIT Y REPORT S // 41

Shorewood | Burien $1,300,000 SOLD

BU RIEN

BURIEN:

M E D I A N S A L E S P R I C E & D AYS O N M A R K E T

$500,000 30

$250,000 $200,000 $150,000

$380,000

$300,000

$330,000

$350,000

$281,250

T

he Burien/Normandy Park area of Southwest King County includes both Burien and upscale Normandy Park as well as the neighborhoods of Seahurst, Shorewood and Three Tree Point. Downtown Burien has been gentrifying for some years. John F. Kennedy Memorial High School in Burien is an SEVP school certified to admit foreign students. SeaTac International Airport offers worldwide connections, and the corporate headquarters of Alaska Air Group are located beside Angle Lake in the southeast corner of this area. WA SR-509 offers quick access to downtown Seattle, typically without the heavy volumes of traffic experienced on I-5, making this suburban community increasingly attractive.

$400,000

$429,400

$450,000

26 22 18 14

$100,000

10

$50,000 $0

6 2014

2015 Median Selling Price

2016

2017

Days on Market

The 2017 median price in Burien rose 13.0 percent, to $429,000 from $380,000 in 2016. Selling volume expanded at about the same rate−by 13.4 percent, to $257.9 million from $227.5 million. Although competitive bidding was most intense the second quarter, the third quarter saw the highest quarterly price gains year over year: 21.5 percent at the 25thpercentile price; 20.4 percent at the 50th-percentile price; and 25.0 percent at the 75th­-percentile price.

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42 // SOUTHEAST KING C OUNT Y • C OMMUNIT Y REPORT S //

Renton $875,000 SOLD

RENTON

RENTON:

M E D I A N S A L E S P R I C E & D AYS O N M A R K E T

$600,000

26

$500,000

Again the reason is a shortage of homes to sell. Market times, while not as brief in the first and fourth quarters as in the more affluent communities of Seattle and the Eastside, continued to offer a quick sale in the second quarter. The median cumulative days on market dipped from 15 in 2017 Q1 to six in 2017 Q2−a quarter in which competitive bidding caused premiums to sellers to peak across all price bands.

$200,000 $100,000

$477,528

18 14

$378,000

$300,000

$432,000

$400,000 $350,000

T

he number of single-family homes sold in Renton declined for a second consecutive year in 2017, down by 4.8 percent from transactions in 2016, which were 1.7 lower than in 2015. This decline accelerated from the third through the fourth quarter. (The numbers of sales in 2017, 2016, and 2015 were 1,786, 1,877, and 1,909, respectively.)

22

10

$0

6 2014

As a result. Renton's median price of a single-family home rose by 10.5 percent from 2016 to 2017, to $477,528 from $432,000. Selling volume was up by a lesser 5.5 percent to $935.6 million from $887.2 million. Selling prices across all bands have been moving steadily higher in Renton, with none of the indicative price percentiles seeing any declines within the last nine quarters (i.e., not since 2015 Q3).

Realo g ics S otheby's Inter national Realty | 2 017/2018 Market Repor t

2015 Median Selling Price

2016 Days on Market

2017

// KIT SAP C OUNT Y • C OMMUNIT Y REPORT S // 43

Bainbridge Island $3,800,000 SOLD

In 2017, single-family home transactions rocketed higher on

Bainbridge Island, rising by 17.8 percent (to 436 from 370 in 2016). The second quarter saw the most intensive activity, with 31.8 percent more homes purchased than in the same quarter a year before.

$700,000 $600,000 $500,000 $400,000

$740,000

$800,000

$836,500

$900,000

$668,000

B

ainbridge Island in Kitsap County includes Port Madison, Rolling Bay and dozens of other small communities as well as the historic town is Winslow, which features a flagship branch office for Realogics Sotheby's International Realty. Bainbridge High School and Eagle Harbor High School are both ranked among the top public high schools in the state by U.S. News. The population is estimated to have increased by 3.5 percent, from 23,025 to 23,840 since 2010. Despite its proximity to Seattle by ferry, Bainbridge Island's 27.6 square miles available as living space render a population density of only 847 persons per square mile (psm). This is 59 percent less concentrated than Tiburon in California's San Francisco Bay Area (at 2,065 psm) and even 39 percent less dense than Anacortes in Skagit County (at 1,388 psm). Accordingly, four-fifths of Bainbridge Island's housing stock remains single-family.

BAINBRIDGE ISLAND:

M E D I A N S A L E S P R I C E & D AYS O N M A R K E T

$620,000

BAIN BRI D GE I S LAND

30 26 22 18

$300,000 $200,000

14

$100,000 $0

10 2014

2015 Median Selling Price

2016

2017

Days on Market

Aside from being preferred by mariners, Bainbridge Island is a bedroom community for downtown Seattle, bearing prices in a different league from the rest of Kitsap County. Singlefamily home prices here increased by 13.0 percent in 2017, to $836,500 from $740,000 in 2016. Carried by the aforementioned transactions, that increase translated into a much stronger gain for selling volume−up by 30.4 percent, to $425.3 million from $326.3 million in 2016.

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44 // KIT SAP C OUNT Y • C OMMUNIT Y REPORT S //

Lo fa l l | Po u l s b o $ 1 ,4 0 0,0 0 0 SO L D

In 2017, this area saw the number of single-family home transactions decline by 7.7 percent, to 603 from 653 in 2016.

A 15.6 percent year-over-year uptick in the third quarter was not enough to offset fewer sales in all other quarters.

62 56

$300,000 $250,000 $200,000

$340,500

$350,000

$386,500

$450,000 $400,000 $344,823

W

est of Bainbridge Island on the Kitsap Peninsula, the market we analyze as "Poulsbo" stretches from Poulsbo itself to Lofall on the Hood Canal, and north to Port Gamble. Poulsbo is home to West Sound Academy, one of the SEVP private schools certified to admit foreign students at both the middle and upper school levels. The population of Poulsbo−originally a Native American settlement and later a Scandinavian enclave−is estimated to have grown by 11.3 percent, from 9,283 in 2010 to 10,400 in 2016.

POULSBO:

M E D I A N S A L E S P R I C E & D AYS O N M A R K E T

$290,000

POULSBO

50 44 38 32

$150,000 $100,000

26

$50,000

20

$0

14 2014

2015 Median Selling Price

2016

2017

Days on Market

ing volume was 4.5 percent higher, to $251.3 million from $240.5 million.

The median 16 cumulative days on market in the third quarter was five days shorter than the 2015 Q2 market time, and 62 percent shorter than the 2014 Q2 market time; yet it was the first year-over-year increase in quarterly cumulative days on market that Poulsbo had seen in three years (up from 14 in 2016 Q3). The 2017 median home selling price in Poulsbo rose 13.5 percent, to $386,500 from $340,500 in 2016. Sell-

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// S O U T H W E ST S N OH OM I S H C O U N T Y • C OMMUNIT Y REPORT S // 45

Ly n n w o o d $635,000 SOLD

LYNNWOOD

LY N N W O O D :

M E D I A N S A L E S P R I C E & D AYS O N M A R K E T

$500,000

18

Single-family home selling prices below the median started the year with strong increases: in Q1, 15.9 percent and 20.0 percent respectively at the 50th-percentile and 25th-percentile prices.

These gains grew smaller toward the end of the year, but were compensated by improved performance of prices at the high end.

$250,000 $200,000

$450,000

$300,000

$355,000

$350,000 $335,000

I

ncreasing urbanization is gradually transforming Lynnwood,* further constraining the alreadyshort supply of homes for sale. The number of single ­family home sales declined by 5.1 percent in 2017, to 537 from 566 in 2016. Meanwhile, selling volume contrarily rose by 4.9 percent (to $253.5 million from $241.6 million), as the median price also increased by 10.7 percent, to $450,000 from $406,500 in 2016. Sales reached a median cumulative days on market of seven in 2017 Q2.

$400,000

$406,500

$450,000

16 14 12 10

$150,000 $100,000

8

$50,000 $0

6 2014

2015 Median Selling Price

2016

2017

Days on Market

numbers, and volumes of sales at Lynnwood from those recorded by the NWMLS.

*Homes sold in the Census-designated places of Alderwood Manor and Martha Lake are irregularly recorded either among homes sales at Lynnwood or in Bothell. To avoid complexity, these home sales have been excluded from the numbers at Lynnwood. As Martha Lake in particular features some high-value homes, this has somewhat reduced the prices,

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4 6 / / S O U T H W E ST S N OH OM I S H C O U N T Y • C OM M U N I T Y R E P ORT S / /

Edmonds $815,000 SOLD

Edmonds is a place where the old mixes with the new, where you can attend an exhibit on modern art in a building that's over a hundred years old. In fact, Edmonds is the oldest incorporated city in Snohomish County. Relics of its history still exist, having been lovingly woven into the fabric of the community.

Residents of Edmonds are proud of their heritage, and maintain beautiful old buildings such as the former Carnegie Library, a log cabin Visitor's Center, and a 1920s Art Deco Movie Theater.

24

$600,000

22

$400,000 $300,000 $200,000

$499,975

$500,000

$585,000

$700,000

$464,732

O

nly 18 miles north of Seattle lies the hamlet of Edmonds, a small town of only 39,000 on the westfacing slope of Puget Sound. With tree-lined streets, a walkable downtown, and beautiful views of the ferry, the town has become a hideaway for those looking to escape the hustle and bustle of city life. It's a place where flowers bloom in every yard come spring and people smile when they walk down Main Street. But don't let the size of Edmonds and it's charm fool you; this is no sleepy town.

EDMONDS:

M E D I A N S A L E S P R I C E & D AYS O N M A R K E T

$400,450

EDMONDS

20 18 16 14 12

$100,000

10

$0

8 2014

2015 Median Selling Price

2016

2017

Days on Market

percent, to $489.3 million from $431.8 million. At the 50th-percentile selling price, year-over-year growth rates ranged from 17.8 percent to 19.0 quarterly all year long. As in Lynnwood, the median cumulative days on market bottomed at seven in the second quarter.

Single-family home selling transactions in Edmonds declined by 2.5 percent in 2017, to 745 from 764 in 2016. Meanwhile, the median price surged upward by 17.0 percent, to $585,000 from $499,975 in 2016; and selling volume likewise increased by 13.3

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// SNOHOMISH C OUNT Y • C OMMUNIT Y REPORT S // 47

Anacortes $ 1 ,4 8 8,0 0 0 SO L D

A NACORT ES

The seaside town of Anacortes is the only surveyed community to have seen an annual loss in single-family home selling volume in 2017. Selling volume declined to $209.5 million from $213.4 million in 2016, despite an 8.3-percent increase in the median selling price (to $429,000 in 2017 from $396,000 in 2016). Although the number of first-quarter transactions rose sharply−by 23.6 percent−as likewise seen at Mount Vernon above, the year ultimately ended with a transaction total unchanged from 2015 at 440, and down by 7.2 percent from selling transactions in 2016 (from 474).

52

$450,000

48

$300,000 $250,000

$396,000

$350,000

$363,000

$400,000

$429,000

$500,000

$351,500

T

he "Gateway to the San Juans," Anacortes here comprises not only this historic town on the northern end of Fidalgo Island but also the rest of the island west of the Swinomish Indian Reservation. Buyers in this area are attracted to the newer community of Rock Ridge, the traditional living at Old Town Anacortes, Burrows Bay, the San Juan Islands views at Skyline and Biz Point and waterfront access at Dewey Beach and Gibralter.

ANACORTES:

M E D I A N S A L E S P R I C E & D AYS O N M A R K E T

44 40 36

$200,000

32

$150,000

28

$100,000

24

$50,000 $0

20 2014

2015 Median Selling Price

2016

2017

Days on Market

by bedroom counts, homes in the former have tended to command higher prices.

The median cumulative days on market in Anacortes reached the same second­quarter low as seen last year−16 days. The quality of life in Anacortes is analogous to that of Poulsbo, but

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48 // SNOHOMISH C OUNT Y • C OMMUNIT Y REPORT S //

Snohomish $3,300,000 SOLD

SN O HO M I S H

The numbers of single-family homes sold in this area have risen steadily in recent years, but at a declining rate since 2014: increasing by 14.0 percent in 2015, 12.8 percent in 2016, and 5.2 percent in 2017. Growth in the number of sales was flat year over year in the second half of 2017.

32

$400,000 $300,000

$520,000

$500,000 $480,000

36

$429,000

$600,000

$385,000

S

tatistics for Snohomish capture far­ranging transactions located in most unincorporated areas northwest of Monroe and east of Lake Stevens.

SNOHOMISH:

M E D I A N S A L E S P R I C E & D AYS O N M A R K E T

28 24

$200,000

20

$100,000

16

$0

12 2014

The 2017 median price was up 8.3 percent, to $520,000 from $480,000 in 2016; and selling volume was higher by 14.7 percent, to $668.7 million from $583.0 million.

For the first time since 2015 Q1, homes began to linger on the market later in the year: staying four median cumulative days longer year over year in 2017 Q3, and six more year over year in 2017 Q4. Yet sold homes were well­priced, as deviation from the listed price did not exceed 1.7 percent at any measured percentile bound.

Realo g ics S otheby's Inter national Realty | 2 017/2018 Market Repor t

2015 Median Selling Price

2016 Days on Market

2017

// SNOHOMISH C OUNT Y • C OMMUNIT Y REPORT S // 49

Everett $549,000 SOLD

E V E R E T T:

M E D I A N S A L E S P R I C E & D AYS O N M A R K E T

$400,000

28

The city of Everett captured a significant number of home buyers "driving to affordability," with the number of single ­family home sales exceeding 2016 sales by 10.3 percent.

Price increases drove selling volume up by nearly double this rate: 20.3 percent, to $800.7 million in 2017 from $665.8 million in 2016. The median single family home selling price rose by 7.7 percent, to $377,050 from $349,950 in 2016.

$200,000

$349,950

$250,000

$283,000

A

regional employment center most notably known for the Boeing Assembly Plant and the U.S. Navy's Pacific Home Port, Everett offers residents all the necessary amenities to find comfort. These areas are home to a number of affluent communities, from the Mill Creek Country Club east of I-5 to any of the neighborhoods branching off Harbour Point Boulevard. Weekend recreation is always close at hand, whether it means attending a seasonal farmer's market or venturing toward Skagit County and the North Cascades.

$300,000

$319,250

$350,000

$377,050

EVERET T

26 24 22 20 18 16

$150,000

14

$100,000

12 10

$50,000

8 6

$0 2014

2015 Median Selling Price

2016

2017

Days on Market

Stevens hide differences attributable to bedroom counts. Everett homes actually sold at a premium to comparable homes in Lake Stevens. Buyers in Everett paid 4.6 percent more for three bedrooms, 2.3 percent more for four bedrooms, and 1.6 percent more for five bedrooms.

Everett's market times followed last year's pattern, accelerating to six median cumulative days on market in Q2. The median single-family home prices at Everett and neighboring Lake

R ealo g ics S otheby's Inter national Realty | rsir. com

50 // ISL AND C OUNT Y • C OMMUNIT Y REPORT S //

Camano Island $ 74 0 , 0 0 0 S O L D

CAMAN O I S L AN D

CAMANO ISLAND:

M E D I A N S A L E S P R I C E & D AYS O N M A R K E T

$450,000

74

Camano Island residents find their peaceful getaways at Utsal-

ady Bay in the north; at Madrona Beach on the western shore; at Driftwood Shores along Triangle Cove on the island's eatern coast; and southeasterly by South Camano Drive along the banks of the Saratoga Passage.

The single-family home market on Camano Island has followed 18.8 percent transaction growth in 2015 with two years of single-digit growth. The increase in 2017 was 1.5 percent. to 486 from 479 sales in 2016.

As a primarily retirement and second-home market, home sales do not move at the pace of Puget Sound markets closer to employment centers. Also, sales have tended to peak in the third rather than in the second quarters as found elsewhere.

However, quarterly median cumulative days on market have

$338,000

$300,000

$200,000 $150,000 $100,000

68 62 56 50 44

$303,500

$250,000

$269,950

C

amano Island is the second of the two main islands in Island County. The local Chamber of Commerce has positioned the island as a retirement haven or vacation retreat. While an island, there is direct vehicular access through Stanwood connecting to I-5 which resolves any dependencies on ferry services.

$350,000

$396,880

$400,000

38 32

$50,000

26

$0

20 2014

2015 Median Selling Price

2016

2017

Days on Market

been bottoming in the second quarter, and lower year after year: at 25 days in 2016 Q2, and 16.5 days in 2017 Q2.

Single-family home selling prices historically have tended to undershoot sellers' expectations, but this year they appeared to normalize around listed prices, especially at and below the 50th-percentile price. The median price in 2017 rose by 17.4 percent. to $396,880 from $338,000; and selling volume increased by a commensurate 16.8 percent to $212.0 million from $181.5 million.

Realo g ics S otheby's Inter national Realty | 2 017/2018 Market Repor t

// PI E R C E C O U N T Y • C OMMUNIT Y REPORT S // 51

Gig Harbor $1,350,000 SOLD

Although west of the Tacoma Narrows, Gig Harbor and Fox Island are together part of Pierce County and are treated here as a single market for analysis. There is a high concentration of waterfront sales in this area. The numbers of single-family home sales have grown year after year, by 12.1 percent in 2017 (to 1,400 from 1,249). Transactions in 2017 Q1 were up 32.7 percent year over year from 2016 Q1.

$600,000 54

$300,000 $200,000

$477,900

$400,000

$439,950

$500,000

$385,000

A

pproximately just over an hour south of Seattle, Gig Harbor and Fox Island are sought-after locations for those dreaming of a waterfront lifestyle in a picture perfect resort style setting with impressive affordability.

Primarily known as "boomburbs" for Tacoma and Bremerton, these areas have experienced a significant population growth in the past five years, particularly as the wealthy flock to these coveted shores. Avid sailors love to venture the local ports, with their own diverse local scenes, featuring breweries and fine dining options to historical landmarks and aquatic activities.

G I G H A R BO R / FOX I S L A N D :

M E D I A N S A L E S P R I C E & D AYS O N M A R K E T

$349,625

GIG HARBOR/FOX ISLAND

48 42 36 30

$100,000 $0

24 2014

2015 Median Selling Price

2016

2017

Days on Market

homes were moving faster than they were in 2016. However, firstquarter cumulative days on market was 65, eight more than those of 2016 Q1. Nevertheless, sellers did not give up much to close these deals, as markdowns to buyers did not exceed 0.8 percent at any price bound.

The median price of homes in Gig Harbor and Fox Island was up by 8.6 percent, to $477,900 from $439,950. Selling volume increased much more quickly−by 20.9 percent−to $736.0 million in 2017 from $609.1 million in 2016.

Matching home buyers to sellers has taken longer at Gig Harbor than in areas east of Puget Sound. The annual median cumulative days on market were 27; and by the fourth quarter,

R ealo g ics S otheby's Inter national Realty | rsir. com

52 // ADDITIONAL C OMMUNITIES AROUND THE SOUND //

A D D ITION AL CO M M U N I T I ES A ROUND T HE SOUN D

BONNEY L AK E

F

ollowing two years of single-family home transaction growth above 18 percent annually, Bonney Lake saw a more modest increase of 2.5 percent in 2017, to 1,072 from 1,046 in 2016. There were 16.5 percent more first-quarter transactions, but 4.8 percent fewer by the fourth quarter.

Nevertheless, the median price at Bonney Lake was 14.3 percent higher in 2017, to $370,000 from $324,248 in 2016.

Selling volume rose at a complementary rate of 16.3 percent, to $412.6 million from $354.8 million.

Bonney Lake $410,000 SOLD

declined year over year, by 11.6 percent and 1.7 percent, re-

spectively. Nevertheless, selling volume was up by 13.1 percent, to $464.0 million from $410.3 million. This was attributable to a 12.3 percent increase in the median price of a single-family home, to $365,000 from $324,975.

Fe d e r a l Wa y $130,000 SOLD

F ED ERAL WAY

T

he strong pattern of single-family home transactions in Federal Way, with growth rates into the mid-teens in the preceding two years, gave way to a practically unchanged (+0.8 percent) number of sales in 2017−to 1,191 from 1,182 in 2016. Selling transactions in 2017 Q3 and Q4

Federal Way's median time on market reached seven cumulative days in the second quarter, then reversed to 24 by the end of the year.

While selling price deviations at the 25th percentile indicate a years-long pattern of competitive bidding, only in 2016 did sellers of homes at the 75th-percentile price generally benefit from such competition ­ and these sellers appear to have resumed markdowns to buyers in 2017. Prices at the 50th and 25th percentiles rose quarterly by 11.5 percent and higher year over year throughout 2017, but trends at and above the 90th percentile turned negative in the fourth quarter.

Realo g ics S otheby's Inter national Realty | 2 017/2018 Market Repor t

// ADDITIONAL C OMMUNITIES AROUND THE SOUND // 53

L AKE STEVE NS

F

ollowing ebullient single-family home sales in 2016, when the number of transactions rose by 28.5 percent on the year, sales in 2017 were lower by 4.7 percent, and down year over year from Q2 through Q4. Yet selling volume was up by 8.5 percent in 2017, led by 16.1 percent growth in selling prices (to $395,000 from $340,250 in 2016).

Confirming that sales have been constrained by short supply, not demand, 2017 quarterly sales at the 50th and 75th price percentiles consistently showed double-digit price growth; and both Lake Stevens and Everett saw selling price deviations that benefited sellers.

Lake Stevens $ 1 ,4 0 0,0 0 0 SO L D

M ON ROE

I

n contrast to Snohomish, single-family home transactions in Monroe have progressively increased for two consecutive years: by 18.1 percent from 421 to 497 in 2016; and by 23.7 percent to 615 in 2017.

Median prices at Monroe were also higher ­by 14.3 percent, to $427,250 in 2017 from $373,875 in 2016. However increasing transactions at higher prices led most notably to a 36.4 percent increase in selling volume, to $278.9 million from $204.4 million. Quarterly price growth year over year peaked in the first quarter: 21.7 percent at the 75th-percentile price; 20.9 percent at the 50th-percentile price; and 23.5 percent at the 25th-percentile price.

MAP LE VALLEY

S

outheast of Renton, selling transactions in Maple Valley have been increasing by progressively smaller increments year after year, with only 20 more transactions in 2017 than in 2016 (to 775 from 755, or +2.6 percent). Yet the median price rose 8.9 percent, to $452,000 in 2017 from $415,000 in 2016. Selling volume was up by 15.1 percent, to $379.5 million from $329.8 million.

R ealo g ics S otheby's Inter national Realty | rsir. com

54 // THE C OND O C OMEBACK //

5

TRENDS TO WATCH IN 2018 Foreshadowed by a lingering winter season, some winds shifted and clouds were gathering on the economic horizon.

AREA JOB

THE

GROWTH CONTINUES

CONDO

TO STOKE EBULLIENT COMEBACK

HOUSING DEMAND

C

1

ondominium launches will blossom as new presale efforts ramp up, now that condo values are rising. Indications are that new residents in Seattle are increasingly arriving from cities nationwide and abroad where comparatively mature transit systems and urban amenities prevail, and these new arrivals are comfortable with higher density.

94% OF 27,000 MULTI-FAMILY UNITS DELIVERED IN CURRENT DECADE WILL BE OFFERED FOR RENT & NOT FOR SALE

Meanwhile, apartment projects are meeting steep headwinds, with lenders citing a slowdown in rent growth. Luxury two bedroom units in downtown Seattle are already facing a six-to-eight week rent concession on a year-long lease, as affordability in leasing is facing consumer push back.

The median home price of a condominium rose by 19 percent last year, and rents have grown by 50 percent since 2010. Ultimately, this is an imbalance of supply and demand, as 1,100 persons move into the metro area every week, with many jobs located in the urban centers (most notably at Amazon).

The only sustainable way to introduce more affordable housing is to remove impediments to building more. The City of Seattle enacted the Housing Affordability and Livability Agenda (HALA) which allows for bonus density in exchange for units or cash contributions towards affordable housing. This requires more construction to work. The affordability crisis is acute in Seattle, which as described in this report has led the nation in median home price growth for 16 months.

Realo g ics S otheby's Inter national Realty | 2 017/2018 Market Repor t

// RISING INTEREST R ATES // 55

TWO MORE INTEREST RATE INCREASES ARE IN THE WINGS FOR 2018

2

RISING INTEREST RATES

R

ising rates together with rising housing costs will put homeownership out of reach for some, yet motivate even greater numbers of tenants to seek out purchasing options.

Federal Reserve Chief Jerome Powell replaced Janet Yellen in February 2018, and has since expressed confidence that the nation's economy is strong enough to warrant higher interest rates. The first step in that direction was a quarter-point rate hike on March 21, the sixth since the onset of the financial crisis. In regard to asset prices including real estate, Powell said of inflation that day, "You can think of some equity prices. You can think of commercial real estate prices in certain markets. But we don't see it in housing, which is key."

The U.S. central bank indicated that two more rate increases are in the wings for 2018. This path will hit the most highly leveraged homebuyers the hardest, especially in the Puget Sound region where prices have risen so far, so fast.

4.60

4.40

4.20

4.00

3.80

3.60

3.40

3.20

3.00

The above graph illustrates mortgage interest rates from Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market SurveyÂŽ R ealo g ics S otheby's Inter national Realty | rsir. com

56 // VANC OUVER B.C. FOILS FOREIGN BUYERS //

3 Va n c o u v e r H a r b o u r VA N C O U V E R | CA N A DA

VANCOUVER B.C. FOILS FOREIGN BUYERS

P

ressure is intensifying on provincial authorities in British Columbia to further restrict what media reports allege to be parking of offshore funds and money laundering by foreign nationals using real estate in the province. Responding first only to the question of outsized market influence by foreign buyers, the B.C. government imposed a 15-percent foreign-buyer transfer tax in August 2016, which it raised to 20 percent in February 2018. No longer applying only to property in the Lower Mainland, the augmented tax will now apply in Victoria and other parts of B.C. as well.

The tax and the animus that drives it are causing inbound buyers from China to explore alternative markets like Seattle. Chinese nationals are familiar with mercurial policy-making—indeed, one reason for overseas real estate purchases is safe haven from confiscation. This has spurred many to seek diversification in U.S. real estate, which is protected by state and federal constitutions from tax or seizure by authorities acting impetuously or unilaterally.

RSIR has observed a decline in Chinese nationals investing in the Seattle area, some of whom cite PRC capital controls. Local bro-

kers are increasingly concerned about the ability of a Chinese national to perform on a purchase agreement, even with extended closing dates, due to the slow process of transferring funds. Local lenders have created mortgage products to help Chinese nationals purchase property with less cash and more debt. Others report that Chinese are still buying, but smaller, less expensive homes. It appears that China's agenda is working, as is Vancouver's agenda to curb foreign buyer activity spiking home prices in that market.

Access to nationally ranked public and private schools in the Puget Sound is one of the top forces drawing immigration and investors to the area.

Realo g ics S otheby's Inter national Realty | 2 017/2018 Market Repor t

// SEVP PRIVATE SCHO OLS IN PUGET SOUND // 57

SEVP PRIVATE SCHOOLS IN THE PUGET SOUND

Washington State is home to a large number of private preparatory schools, colleges, and universities participating in the Student and Exchange Visitor Program (SEVP). Only these SEVP-certified schools can provide a student with an I-20 form required to obtain an F-1 student visa.

Bishop Blanchet High School Holy Names Academy Lakeside School The Northwest School O'Dea High School Seattle Preparatory School Spring Academy University Prep Bellevue Christian School Forest Ridge School of the Sacred Heart Archbishop Murphy High School Spring Street International School Harbor Christian Schools Eastside Preparatory School Lynden Christian School West Sound Academy The Bear Creek School The Overlake School Renton Preparatory Christian School Eastside Catholic School Shoreline Christian School Annie Wright Schools Bellarmine Preparatory School Mount Rainier Lutheran High School Vashon Island High School

R ealo g ics S otheby's Inter national Realty | rsir. com

58 // C ONTINUED TECH EXPANSION //

4

CONTINUED TECH EXPANSION

T

hreats of Amazon's HQ2 are not yet crimping growth in the tech community, as leases are measured by entire buildings, and even residential building applications are being converted to office uses. The broader question regards the technology industry’s resilience under more challenging economic conditions.

Past booms have seen speculation arise as to whether tech has become recession-proof. Certainly, the region’s local tech leaders, Amazon and Microsoft, and key participants Google, Facebook, and others, have in the past decade become more closely integrated with the media and policy-making communities, which may at least partly inoculate them to cyclical business conditions. Widening wage-to-rent gaps tell a different story, however, as does the aforementioned Federal Reserve interest-rate policy, so it remains to be seen to what extent the tech industry and their employees can hedge against an economic downturn. For now at least, these companies continue to hire, drawing new workers and home buyers to the region’s residential markets.

Realo g ics S otheby's Inter national Realty | 2 017/2018 Market Repor t NEXUS Condominiums S E AT T L E | W A S H I N G T O N

// D OWNSIZERS & EMPT Y NESTERS // 59

DOWNSIZERS AND EMPTY NESTERS

T

he aging Baby Boomer cohort is an old story, and their conversion from larger homes to smaller quarters has been long anticipated. Buyers who haven’t already taken advantage of soaring prices will eventually place their close-in single-family homes on the market. Some will find condo living most appealing, and these will take a bite at new presale opportunities.

The more aged will move into retirement centers or assisted living, while those who are physically fit may prefer to move out to exurban towns with reliable local healthcare and leisure amenities.

Whatever the motive, these phase-of-life sales will continue to add much needed inventory for new families, while others exchange familiar environs for comfort and security. Some of their homes will feed yet another market trend: the demand among younger families and downtown employees for affordability and urban conveniences. This parallel trend will benefit “Main Street” neighborhoods like Ballard, Green Lake, Madison Park, Columbia City, Juanita Village and others that offer a sense of community, but lower costs than their in-city peers.

5

R ealo g ics S otheby's Inter national Realty | rsir. com

60 // INDEX //

INDEX COUNT Y REPORTS

COMMUNITY REPORTS

14.. .................................................................KING COUNTY

23.. ......................................................... CENTRAL SEATTLE

15.. ............................................................. KITSAP COUNTY

24.. ............................................. QUEEN ANNE/MAGNOLIA

16.. ...................................................... JEFFERSON COUNTY

25.. ............................................................. NORTH SEATTLE

17.. .............................................................SKAGIT COUNTY

26.. .................................................. BALLARD/GREEN LAKE

18.. ............................................................. PIERCE COUNTY

27.. ................................................................ WEST SEATTLE

19.. ....................................................SNOHOMISH COUNTY

28.. ..................................................... SOUTHEAST SEATTLE

20.. ................................... ISLAND & SAN JUAN COUNTIES

29.. .......................................................SODO/BEACON HILL 30.. .............................................. BELLTOWN/DOWNTOWN 31.. .............................................. BELLEVUE WEST OF I-405 32.. ........................................................................KIRKLAND 33.. ............................................................. MERCER ISLAND 34.. ............................................... BELLEVUE EAST OF I-405 35.. ........................................................................ REDMOND 36.. ....................................................................SAMMAMISH 37.. .............................................. EASTSIDE/SOUTH OF I-90 38.. ................................................................ WOODINVILLE 39.. ...................................................................... SHORELINE 40.. .........................................................................KENMORE 41.. ............................................................................. BURIEN 42.. ........................................................................... RENTON 43.. ......................................................BAINBRIDGE ISLAND 44.. .......................................................................... POULSBO 45.. ..................................................................... LYNNWOOD 46.. ........................................................................ EDMONDS 47.. ..................................................................... ANACORTES 48.. .................................................................... SNOHOMISH 49.. .......................................................................... EVERETT 50.. ............................................................CAMANO ISLAND 51.. ............................................. GIG HARBOR/FOX ISLAND

Realo g ics S otheby's Inter national Realty | 2 017/2018 Market Repor t

// OUR PHILOSOPHY // 61

S E RV I CE YOU D ESE RVE F RO M P RO F ESS I O NA LS YOU T RUST

R

ealogics Sotheby's International Realty is proud that our experienced brokers call the communities they work in home, many of them serving the community in local charities, schools and neighborhood councils. In addition to being experts in real estate, only properties listed

by RSIR benefit from exclusive marketing platforms that draw more than 2.5 million unique views per month (more than half from international markets). Discover why we are America's Most TrustedÂŽ Residential Real Estate Brokerage for two years running.

Sotheby's International Realty received the highest numerical score in the proprietary Lifestory Research 2017 America's Most TrustedÂŽ Residential Real Estate Brokerage study. The study based on 6,299 new home shoppers in the United States between January and December 2016. Your experiences may vary. Visit www.lifestoryresearch.com.

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