WORLD ENERGY TRANSITIONS OUTLOOK
INTRODUCTION
In Paris in 2015, signatories to the United Nations Convention on Climate Change agreed to pursue efforts to keep the rise in global temperatures to well below 2°C and try to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels by 2050. In 2021, IRENA presented a pathway to 1.5°C in the first edition of World Energy Transitions Outlook (WETO) in 2021. The pathway decarbonises all end uses, with electrification and energy efficiency as primary drivers, enabled by renewables, green hydrogen and sustainable modern bioenergy. Putting the energy sector on a pathway to 1.5°C can also help address other important global concerns such as energy price volatility and energy security, two issues that have come into the spotlight since the publication of WETO 2021. The economic and social impacts of rapidly rising energy prices are increasingly being felt by consumers and businesses around the world. Energy security concerns, especially in Europe, are pushing policy makers to look for a faster deployment of alternatives, with renewables, energy efficiency and hydrogen at the top of the list. At the same time, the climate crisis remains as urgent as ever, as evidenced by the latest report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released at the end of February 2022. With climate change already wreaking substantial (and sometimes irreversible) damage to ecosystems, settlements, and infrastructure, the world faces multiple climate hazards, even if the warming can be contained to 1.5°C (IPCC, 2022). Exceeding this threshold, which appears increasingly likely, would result in additional severe impacts that are not only costly in economic terms but threatening to human well-being and survival. Some important progress has been made in recent years to move the energy system away from fossil fuels, especially by adding renewables-based electricity capacity, which more than doubled over the past decade. However, this progress is still not ambitious enough to put the world on the right path to 1.5°C. Domestic and industrial heat, industrial processes and the transport sector remain highly reliant on fossil fuels in most countries, contributing significantly to emissions and perpetuating exposure to volatility in the prices of fossil fuels. The probability of reaching the 2050 target depends on making sufficient progress in the near term, with the period to 2030 crucial for accelerated action across all energy use sectors. 2030 is also a critical year for achievement of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), notably SDG7, which aims to ensure affordable, reliable, sustainable, and modern energy for all.
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