The state of the current Conservative and Labour Party
How prepared are both parties as a General Election looms in 2024?
February 2023
INTRODUCTION
With a general election expected in 2024, politics has never felt so tumultuous. With Keir Starmer’s Labour 20 points ahead in the polls, the next election seems like a foregone conclusion – or does it? Could the ‘comeback kid’ Rishi Sunak defy all polls and lead the Conservative Party to an unexpected victory? His recent departmental reshuffle shows he’s serious about policy delivery but will it work?
Cicero’s Associate Directors, Alice Perry and Sonia Khan explore the state of the current Labour and Conservative parties, how this reflects on their chances for electoral victory and what it will mean for business.
Alice Perry | Associate Director
alice.perry@h-advisors.global
Sonia Khan | Associate Directorsonia.khan@h-advisors.global
State of the current Conservative Party by Sonia Khan
Rishi who?
Despite 100 days in office, the constant question being asked is ‘Where is Rishi Sunak’? His supporters argue he is laser focused on delivering five key pledges and does not need to populate the Government grid with daily proactive stories. But this comes at his political detriment as he is creating space for Labour to fulfil with positive news stories and images.
Why? Because Sunak is running out of time. He is undoing the economic mess left by his predecessors, reacting to global and domestic events while trying to prove to voters his party is delivering on their policy priorities ahead of 2024. He knows he can’t do it all which is why his delivery is focused on five areas only: halving inflation, raising growth, cutting debt and waiting lists and dealing with the small boats. To ensure progress is made, Sunak is showing ruthlessness in his willingness to ditch previous pledges and some manifesto commitments made including on a workers’ rights watchdog and certain animal imports.
While both issues might seem low on the overall agenda, the ease at which other policies can be dropped should ring as a warning bell to anyone or any business that thinks their issues are ‘locked in’. Until legislation has passed, or policy published, issues should be considered ‘at risk’.
What does this mean?
With time not on his side, Sunak is valuing experience as demonstrated in his hiring choices. Bringing in the highly accredited journalist, James Forsyth, as his Political Secretary was an astute move. We see Sunak also bolstering his direct team with Will Tanner back as Deputy Chief of Staff, having helped run the Policy Unit under Theresa May. Other lower-key appointments include Aidan Corley as Head of his Research and Messaging Unit, having joined after a stint at Google but with a lot of experience on Labour attack lines following his time at CCHQ.
Experience is arguably one of the reasons that people like the Chancellor, Jeremy Hunt is safe in his role despite the traditional jousting that usually happens between No10 and No11 Downing Street. But it’s also at risk of working against Sunak who is holding onto Cabinet Ministers like Dominic Raab despite persistent bullying allegations.
Where Sunak is struggling is with the ‘experienced’, namely his predecessors who seem determined to shape their own legacy at his expense. Boris Johnson has been quick to highlight the lack of progress on Brexit and lack of UK support shown to Ukraine. Whereas Liz Truss is keen to reinvent her low tax, low spend, high growth agenda at all costs.
While the ideas won’t hurt Sunak, the risk of factionalism will. Both former Prime Ministers still have a core of supporters who can be reengaged and risk recreating the division that help brought down the May Government. The European Research Group (ERG) have already made manoeuvres calling for a vote on any compromise agreement struck with the EU over the Northern Ireland protocol. That also excludes the potential incoming rebellion if Sunak did take Britain out of the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR). Other pieces of legislation that could be at risk include the divisive Online Safety Bill as well as the Retained EU Law (Revocation and Reform) Bill.
Where next?
The most immediate challenge will be responding to the increasingly coordinated strikes across the public sector. The impact is yet to be totally destabilising but as the strikes accumulate and public patience wears thin, Sunak’s inaction on wages for key workers could become the biggest bone of contention in the Budget (15 March). For all the rabbits he may have, any failure to address wages could damage the whole Budget. This is underlined by the eternal cost-of-living crisis that his predecessor, Liz Truss is said to have made worse and left the blame on the Conservatives’ door.
Sunak also took a while to replace Nadhim Zahawi as Party Chairman, suggesting he struggled to find a candidate with ‘integrity’. While his reshuffle has gone down with minimal fanfare, he may have to look at shuffling his team again if the allegations against Dominic Raab continue to grow.
Both above suggest a man who doesn’t want to get involved in ‘direct politics’, a view that has led to Sunak’s popularity overshadowing that of his party. But as we saw with Boris Johnson, this isn’t enough to survive in power. Sunak needs to address the politics if he is to have the chance of winning a General Election and then setting ruling on his own terms with his own narrative (‘Sunakism’).
If he fails to do so, we risk seeing a rerun of the ‘stasis vs crisis’ cycle that mired Boris Johnson and preventing him from ever getting out of first gear.
State of the current Labour Party by Alice Perry
A government in waiting?
With a general election certain to take place by end of next year, Labour is increasingly being viewed as a credible government-in-waiting. Labour has been out of power in Westminster for 13 years and suffered a humiliating defeat in the 2019 general election. Keir Starmer was elected leader of a demoralised Labour Party in April 2020. How has he turned around Labour’s electoral fortunes?
Starmer outlined three stages of a plan to restore Labour’s electoral credibility. The first stage was to change the Labour Party itself to reconnect with voters and regain public trust. The second stage was to “prosecute the case against the government.” (The former Director of Public Prosecutions often frames Labour’s opposition in these legal terms.) The third stage is to outline what a Keir Starmer government would do differently. Starmer recognised that unless Labour effectively regained trust and credibility, Labour would not be able to get a hearing with the public and business to put forward a serious alternative vision for the UK.
Labour's consistent 20-plus poll lead suggests that stage one has gone well. It is remarkable how quickly Keir Starmer has transformed the Labour Party from chaotic divisions and bruising factional policy battles, to being viewed
as a serious alternative to the Conservatives. In a clear break with the recent past, Starmer opened the 2022 Labour Party conference with a tribute to the Queen and led the party in singing the national anthem – something that would have been unheard of under the previous leadership. Throughout the conference, Starmer’s Labour was determined to demonstrate how the party is now united, outward-looking, and patriotic. The message to the public, and business, was that Labour has changed.
The party of business
From the sold-out business conference to Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeve’s trip to Davos, the pair are working hard to highlight the party's businessfriendly credentials. In his New Year’s speech, Starmer noted that “communities need strong public services, but that’s not enough on its own. For national renewal, there is no substitute for a robust private sector, creating wealth in every community.” Labour’s industrial strategy outlines a vision of “the state working with the private sector to shape and create markets”. The slogan “pro-business, pro-worker, pro-climate” speaks to Starmer and Reeves’ vision for growth and investment and a Green Prosperity plan to create prosperity across the UK. Labour’s green agenda is taking shape and will run through everything from foreign policy to devolution, with decarbonisation and economic growth going hand-in-hand.
While the overarching vision is taking shape, Labour's detailed policy-making process is kicking off. National Policy Forum (NPF) consultations are running through the spring on delivering growth, the everyday economy, empowered communities, prevention, early intervention, and better public services for all, supporting families and Labour's progressive trade policy. Labour has scaled up its business engagement and the next nine months are crucial in the policy-making cycle. The NPF brings together stakeholders from across the Labour movement, with the most influential being the Shadow Cabinet and trade unions. The 2023 Labour Party Conference is likely to be the last policy conference before a general election and Labour’s Clause V meeting, which will agree the general election manifesto.
Labour is aware that while a general election must be held by the end of 2024, it may come much sooner. Labour traditionally prefers elections in spring or summer, with brighter evenings and better weather favouring voter
turnout, but activists are enthusiastically preparing for whenever it may take place. There has been a sharp increase in donations to the party, while membership numbers are stable, both adding income to the election campaign fund, and candidate selections are well underway. Prospective parliamentary candidate vetting is being taken extremely seriously. There is an emphasis on selected candidates with a diverse range of professional and lived experience who can take up positions in government. Former MPs like Emma Reynolds, Heidi Alexander, and Douglas Alexander are also looking to return, bringing their experience and expertise.
No room for complacency
There is an understanding in Labour circles that nothing has been won yet. There is no room for complacency. As the last few years have demonstrated, the political landscape can change rapidly. The Parliamentary boundary changes due to come into force before 2024 are seen as broadly benefiting the Conservatives. Labour is also aware of challenging policy areas for the party to navigate and is wary of debates around ‘culture wars’ and immigration. There is also the challenge of wider party management and the risk of grassroots campaigns undermining Starmer’s carefully constructed appeal to the centre ground of UK politics. Despite all this, Labour can be optimistic about the year ahead. For business, now is the time to strengthen relationships with His Majesty’s Opposition.
