Is it really the beginning of the end for the SNP?

Today will see Humza Yousaf officially sworn in as the sixth, and first ever Muslim, First Minister. This followed the bruising SNP leadership election, where Yousaf ultimately prevailed over his closest rival, Kate Forbes, by a slender-yet-familiar margin of 52-48.

Yousaf now presides over a party that has seemingly become undone. The SNP have governed Scotland for 16 years, yet their prize of independence looks no closer than it did a decade ago. Scotland’s public realm is undeniably in a poor state, and the party has mired itself in controversy following the attempted passage of reforms to gender recognition. Moreover, the party’s first leadership election as a major political force exposed the divisions in the party that Nicola Sturgeon was so successful in papering over.

In his first act as First Minister, Yousaf confirmed that Shona Robison would be his Deputy. If there ever was any doubt about the course that a Yousaf First Ministership would follow, the appointment of one of Nicola Sturgeon’s closest allies, and the Minister responsible for shepherding the Gender Recognition Reform Bill through Parliament, put rest to any suggestion that Yousaf represented a break from the status quo. The subsequent departure of Kate Forbes from Government following her refusal of a demotion will make Yousaf’s job in uniting his party much harder, and Scottish businesses will miss working with someone they rated as understanding their interests.

Yousaf is tasked with developing a credible route to independence, which his predecessor was unable to manage. Without the looming inevitability of independence, the SNP lacks its northern star - making it much harder for Yousaf to unite his disparate party. On this, there are no easy answers in sight. He will also have to decide whether to continue with challenging the UK Government’s Section 35 Order blocking the Gender Recognition Reform Bill, and develop a programme for the next three years of this Scottish Parliamentary term.

However, whilst Yousaf’s daunting in-tray and mediocre-at-best record in running Government departments makes it easy to agree with those proclaiming that this is the beginning of the end for the SNP, it would be remiss to count the party out just yet. The SNP has always been divided under the surface, yet the party has shown an almost inherent knack for unity. Yousaf is benefitted by the low expectations of him being set by the commentariat, and he has been gifted a party that, despite recent travails, still occupies an almost hegemonic position in Scottish politics. If he can answer at least a few of the issues on his to-do-list, the SNP may once again build a sense of momentum that takes it through to the next election.

Jamie Booth Account Executive