A Golden Opportunity for Scottish Labour?

The last decade has been bruising for the Scottish Labour Party, losing election after election, and being written off by many. Indeed, the party has lost seats at each Holyrood election since 1999, and currently returns only 1 MP to Westminster. However, the party now boasts an enthusiasm and a cautious optimism rarely seen in the devolution era. The question is: is this founded in reality?

Firstly, it’s important to frame the context of the SNP’s success in Scotland in recent General Elections. Until recently, UK Labour has arguably not seemed like a credible alternative government. Nicola Sturgeon had enjoyed strong approval ratings throughout this period and was able to use her popularity and adept communication skills to speak to ‘middle Scotland’ in a way that no other UK politician was.

New evidence from Focaldata has found that support for the SNP has tracked approval ratings of the Prime Minister, with James Kanagasooriam (the data man behind the ‘red wall’ electoral strategy) hypothesising that this is because the stronger the Conservatives are, the more Scotland looks towards independence. With current polling showing Labour on course for victory at Westminster, suddenly the allure of independence as the only alternative to Conservative Government is gone.

Since the 2014 Independence Referendum, Scottish Labour has been the victim of a pincer movement, with the SNP hoovering up pro-independence voters, and the Scottish Conservatives positioning themselves as the voice of unionists. There is now a significant opportunity for Scottish Labour to appeal to both sides: emphasising to SNP voters that some of the policy ambitions of independence will be simpler to achieve under a Labour Government, and to Scottish Conservative voters that Labour is the party to safeguard the Union.

The success of Scottish Labour has implications at a Westminster level too. If Scottish Labour are able to win a decent chunk of Central Belt seats, the swing required in England to Labour to deliver a majority is lower – potentially making this a much less daunting task for Sir Keir Starmer. The potential rise of Labour has an impact on the independence question too. If Scotland sends a contingent of Labour MPs to Westminster, and Labour form a Government, then suddenly the UK Government looks much more aligned with Scotland’s votes than is the case currently with 48 SNP MPs balanced against 6 Scottish Conservative MPs and a Conservative Government.

Jamie Booth Account Executive