Reactions from the Conservatives

For three Conservative Prime Ministers now the response to the SNP has been the same: just say No. The UK Government has been confident that they were under no obligation to give into nationalist demands to hold another referendum, and they feel quite vindicated in their approach following the resignation of Nicola Sturgeon after years of her having to grandstand on the issue of independence without anything of substance to show her supporters. The election of Humza Yousaf is unlikely to see any change in tack. The new First Minister had been in office mere moments when asked whether he’d seek another Section 30 order from the UK Government and certainly no formal request had been sent before the reply was received that Rishi Sunak would not be granting one.

Conservatives quietly cheered Yousaf winning. He was a known quantity and not held in high regard with those that followed his record of delivery. Nothing will give more potence to this line of attack than his rival Kate Forbes’ withering assessment of his time as Health Minister, Justice Minister and Transport Minister. Tories will be repeating this line at every opportunity in the run-up to the next election as they seek to further break the unity of the SNP and trash their reputation in the eyes of voters.

The Conservative and Unionist Party, the clue somewhat in the name, has realised its base vote in Scotland is heavily tied with a British identity. Those that are seeking a strong response to the threat of breaking up the country were seeking after the 2014 referendum a home for their views and the Conservatives are confident they’ve become it, with private and public polling backing them up. Confrontation with the chief proponents for removing that identity is perceived by the party as delivering electoral dividends and the best chance of holding onto the few seats they have in Scotland.

Expect then that, while some pleasantries will be extended to Yousaf on his appointment, confrontation will continue over detailed policy that could be seen as overstepping the mark around what’s devolved or not. The newly formalised UK Internal Market gives licence to reject policy on areas that are devolved if they infringe consumer rights of access to goods and services - notably upcoming is a fight over the deposit return scheme. Meanwhile the election of Humza Yousaf means that the tussle over gender recognition reform and trans rights could come back quickly - the Conservatives believe the UK Government has the legal right to block the legislation and the electoral incentive to do so with substantial public resistance to the plans in key demographics for their electoral plans across the UK.

The Conservatives aren't expecting a renaissance for the party in Scotland, but they do believe that Humza Yousaf as First Minister gives them the best chance for an offensive defence in the elections ahead.

Matthew Kilcoyne Senior Account Manager