Scotland's New First Minister

Foreword

After a frequently brutal leadership contest, the membership of the Scottish National Party delivered their verdict, albeit narrowly, and elected Humza Yousaf as their new leader Yousaf becomes the sixth First Minister of Scotland and the third of the SNP’s near-16 year reign at the top of Scottish politics

It is worth pausing a moment to reflect on quite why the election of a new First Minister of Scotland matters so much Why has the UK-wide media given so much airtime and so many column inches to this contest?

First and foremost, as long as the SNP is the dominant party in Scottish politics, the future of Scotland remains inextricably linked with the future of the United Kingdom itself While plenty of time was spent during this election on matters from Kate Forbes’ social views to Humza’s Yousaf’s record on public services, the debate is never far from returning to the defining issue for the SNP of Scottish independence On day 1 of his leadership, Mr Yousaf said he would seek a section 30 order for a legal transfer of power to Holyrood to hold a referendum He knew it would be swiftly rebuffed, but to many in his party, that is the whole point

The next reason, related to the first, is that the looming prospect of independence, or at least another referendum, gives the SNP an outsized significance on the wider political and electoral dynamics of the UK. Think back to 2015 and the potency of the imagery (above) peddled across England by the Conservative Party of Ed Miliband tucked in Alex Salmond’s breast pocket (Nicola Sturgeon and Jeremy Corbyn would be subbed in for the 2017 and 2019 versions) With the SNP predicted to lose ground at the next General Election, would an image of Keir Starmer sitting comfortably in Humza Yousaf’s pocket carry the same weight? It is doubtful, and that is a significant boon for the Labour leader

Thirdly, Starmer’s prospects of emerging at the helm of the largest party at the next General Election will be significantly enhanced if he can mount a meaningful fightback in the once deep-red Labour heartlands across the central belt of Scotland As recently as 2010, Labour’s ranks in the House of Commons were swollen by over 40 Scottish MPs While a return to that level looks unlikely, even half that number would be mighty helpful Many in

Cover image: SNP.. All rights reserved

Banner image: The Guardian. All rights reserved

Labour circles feel this is a plausible scenario, though of course there are many twists and turns to come between now and the General Election

Finally, we should not look at this issue solely or indeed primarily through the prism of what it means for the independence movement or the composition of the next UK Parliament Humza Yousaf has an immediate and urgent job of work to do, together with his new Cabinet, to tackle a range of economic and social challenges facing Scotland From NHS backlogs to closing the attainment gap and boosting economic growth and productivity, the job of First Minister and the role of the Scottish Government is of tremendous import in its own right. There is a key role for business and civil society in tackling all of these challenges

We are likely 12-18 months away from the first big electoral test of Mr Yousaf’s leadership Let’s see what he can do.

Simon Fitzpatrick Head of UK Public Affairs Simon.fitzpatrick@h-advisors.global

Is it really the beginning of the end for the SNP?

Today will see Humza Yousaf officially sworn in as the sixth, and first ever Muslim, First Minister. This followed the bruising SNP leadership election, where Yousaf ultimately prevailed over his closest rival, Kate Forbes, by a slender-yet-familiar margin of 52-48.

Yousaf now presides over a party that has seemingly become undone. The SNP have governed Scotland for 16 years, yet their prize of independence looks no closer than it did a decade ago. Scotland’s public realm is undeniably in a poor state, and the party has mired itself in controversy following the attempted passage of reforms to gender recognition. Moreover, the party’s first leadership election as a major political force exposed the divisions in the party that Nicola Sturgeon was so successful in papering over.

In his first act as First Minister, Yousaf confirmed that Shona Robison would be his Deputy. If there ever was any doubt about the course that a Yousaf First Ministership would follow, the appointment of one of Nicola Sturgeon’s closest allies, and the Minister responsible for shepherding the Gender Recognition Reform Bill through Parliament, put rest to any suggestion that Yousaf represented a break from the status quo. The subsequent departure of Kate Forbes from Government following her refusal of a demotion will make Yousaf’s job in uniting his party much harder, and Scottish

businesses will miss working with someone they rated as understanding their interests.

Yousaf is tasked with developing a credible route to independence, which his predecessor was unable to manage. Without the looming inevitability of independence, the SNP lacks its northern star - making it much harder for Yousaf to unite his disparate party. On this, there are no easy answers in sight. He will also have to decide whether to continue with challenging the UK Government’s Section 35 Order blocking the Gender Recognition Reform Bill, and develop a programme for the next three years of this Scottish Parliamentary term.

However, whilst Yousaf’s daunting in-tray and mediocre-at-best record in running Government departments makes it easy to agree with those proclaiming that this is the beginning of the end for the SNP, it would be remiss to count the party out just yet. The SNP has always been divided under the surface, yet the party has shown an almost inherent knack for unity. Yousaf is benefitted by the low expectations of him being set by the commentariat, and he has been gifted a party that, despite recent travails, still occupies an almost hegemonic position in Scottish politics. If he can answer at least a few of the issues on his to-do-list, the SNP may once again build a sense of momentum that takes it through to the next election.

Jamie Booth Account Executive

The Key Figures

Yousaf’s first Cabinet was always going to look different from what came before. The departure of John Swinney as Deputy First Minister created a significant job opening, and Yousaf’s election created a vacancy in the vital role of health.

His new Cabinet contains a range of fresh faces, including Jenny Gilruth, who SNP supporters argue has earned her promotion following a challenging stint in the transport brief. She will slot well into the education brief, given her past as a high school teacher.

The promotions of Mairi McAllan and Neil Gray also signal a desire for some fresh faces at the top of Government.

Nonetheless, familiar characters remain, including Angus Robertson as Constitution Secretary, with this seemingly a reshuffle that has tried to balance experience with youth.

Interestingly, Yousaf has appointed his deputy, Shona Robison, as Finance Minister, returning to the arrangement that was seen under Alex Salmond’s time as First Minister

Where Yousaf’s reshuffle falls down is on maintaining party unity. The resignation of Kate Forbes from Cabinet, following her refusal of a demotion, did not go down well with Forbes’ supporters, and the removal of her campaign manager, Ivan McKee from his role will also not serve to smooth over tensions.

Whilst nobody in the Cabinet, Robertson perhaps excepted, could be considered a ‘political heavyweight’, Yousaf will likely be unable to dominate his Cabinet in the way that Sturgeon managed over her eight years as First Minister. This will make the personalities sitting around the table all the more important.

Shona Robison, Deputy First Minister and Finance

Jenny Gilruth, Education and Skills

Neil Gray, Wellbeing Economy, Fair Work and Energy

Angus Robertson, Constitution, External Affairs and Culture

Michael Matheson, NHS Recovery, Health and Social Care

Mairi McAllan, Net Zero and Just Transition

Reactions from the Conservatives

For three Conservative Prime Ministers now the response to the SNP has been the same: just say No. The UK Government has been confident that they were under no obligation to give into nationalist demands to hold another referendum, and they feel quite vindicated in their approach following the resignation of Nicola Sturgeon after years of her having to grandstand on the issue of independence without anything of substance to show her supporters. The election of Humza Yousaf is unlikely to see any change in tack. The new First Minister had been in office mere moments when asked whether he’d seek another Section 30 order from the UK Government and certainly no formal request had been sent before the reply was received that Rishi Sunak would not be granting one.

Conservatives quietly cheered Yousaf winning. He was a known quantity and not held in high regard with those that followed his record of delivery. Nothing will give more potence to this line of attack than his rival Kate Forbes’ withering assessment of his time as Health Minister, Justice Minister and Transport Minister. Tories will be repeating this line at every opportunity in the run-up to the next election as they seek to further break the unity of the SNP and trash their reputation in the eyes of voters.

The Conservative and Unionist Party, the clue somewhat in the name, has realised its base vote in Scotland is heavily tied with a British identity. Those that are seeking a strong

response to the threat of breaking up the country were seeking after the 2014 referendum a home for their views and the Conservatives are confident they’ve become it, with private and public polling backing them up. Confrontation with the chief proponents for removing that identity is perceived by the party as delivering electoral dividends and the best chance of holding onto the few seats they have in Scotland.

Expect then that, while some pleasantries will be extended to Yousaf on his appointment, confrontation will continue over detailed policy that could be seen as overstepping the mark around what’s devolved or not. The newly formalised UK Internal Market gives licence to reject policy on areas that are devolved if they infringe consumer rights of access to goods and services - notably upcoming is a fight over the deposit return scheme. Meanwhile the election of Humza Yousaf means that the tussle over gender recognition reform and trans rights could come back quickly - the Conservatives believe the UK Government has the legal right to block the legislation and the electoral incentive to do so with substantial public resistance to the plans in key demographics for their electoral plans across the UK.

The Conservatives aren't expecting a renaissance for the party in Scotland, but they do believe that Humza Yousaf as First Minister gives them the best chance for an offensive defence in the elections ahead.

Matthew Kilcoyne Senior Account Manager

A Golden Opportunity for Scottish Labour?

The last decade has been bruising for the Scottish Labour Party, losing election after election, and being written off by many. Indeed, the party has lost seats at each Holyrood election since 1999, and currently returns only 1 MP to Westminster. However, the party now boasts an enthusiasm and a cautious optimism rarely seen in the devolution era. The question is: is this founded in reality?

Firstly, it’s important to frame the context of the SNP’s success in Scotland in recent General Elections. Until recently, UK Labour has arguably not seemed like a credible alternative government. Nicola Sturgeon had enjoyed strong approval ratings throughout this period and was able to use her popularity and adept communication skills to speak to ‘middle Scotland’ in a way that no other UK politician was.

New evidence from Focaldata has found that support for the SNP has tracked approval ratings of the Prime Minister, with James Kanagasooriam (the data man behind the ‘red wall’ electoral strategy) hypothesising that this is because the stronger the Conservatives are, the more Scotland looks towards independence. With current polling showing Labour on course for victory at Westminster, suddenly the allure of independence as the only alternative to Conservative Government is gone.

Since the 2014 Independence Referendum, Scottish Labour has been the victim of a pincer movement, with the SNP hoovering up pro-independence voters, and the Scottish Conservatives positioning themselves as the voice of unionists. There is now a significant opportunity for Scottish Labour to appeal to both sides: emphasising to SNP voters that some of the policy ambitions of independence will be simpler to achieve under a Labour Government, and to Scottish Conservative voters that Labour is the party to safeguard the Union.

The success of Scottish Labour has implications at a Westminster level too. If Scottish Labour are able to win a decent chunk of Central Belt seats, the swing required in England to Labour to deliver a majority is lower – potentially making this a much less daunting task for Sir Keir Starmer. The potential rise of Labour has an impact on the independence question too. If Scotland sends a contingent of Labour MPs to Westminster, and Labour form a Government, then suddenly the UK Government looks much more aligned with Scotland’s votes than is the case currently with 48 SNP MPs balanced against 6 Scottish Conservative MPs and a Conservative Government.

Jamie Booth Account Executive