By-election or general election - these four seats are crucial Cicero Group | October 2019 Introduction Following the election of four Irish TDs to the European Parliament in May, a series of national by-elections look set to take place in the coming weeks, and, unless the Taoiseach decides to take advantage of the likely Brexit ceasefire in the UK during an election, the date will be Friday 29th of November. While the writs have not been moved in the Dáil yet, the Taoiseach has stated that he intends to move them next week. The results of these by-elections are unlikely to affect the legislative arithmetic in the present Dáil – Fine Gael will continue to govern at the convenience of Fianna Fáil until such a time as either side is audacious enough to spark a general election. This political Mexican standoff is unlikely to end immediately, however, as neither side wants to be regarded as responsible for plunging the country into the sort of political disorder that has become commonplace across the Irish sea. Before we have clarity on Brexit, triggering an election campaign could be regarded as self-serving, and so could be costly politically.
A 2019 General Election? All bets are off post-Brexit of course. While Taoiseach Leo Varadkar has stated his preference for a calm transition period post-Brexit and a May 2020 election, he is facing intense pressure from backbenchers and cabinet members within his own party, who want to cash in on the immediate electoral benefits of having secured a new Brexit deal that does not impose a hard border. This pressure has only intensified in light of last week’s ‘VoteGate’ scandal, which saw two Fianna Fáil TD’s accused of misusing the Dáil’s electronic voting system, thereby damaging the opposition party’s approval ratings. Therefore, if a general election is called in the UK, it is conceivable that Varadkar may acquiesce to his party and call for a general election campaign before Christmas. In fact, the Taoiseach could well choose to not move the writs for the by-elections, and instead call a snap general election. Meanwhile, Fianna Fáil will be hoping to simply hold the by-elections now, perform well and reclaim some ground ahead of a general election in the Spring. They need the heat taken off ‘VoteGate’ to try and capitalise on their stance that they put the ‘country before party’ during the Brexit negotiations and swallowed austere budgets, a growing health crisis and overspends.
The By-Elections - A Useful Bellwether? Assuming that a General Election is not called first, what the upcoming by-elections may well do is serve as a useful bellwether of public opinion, leading both the main two parties and others to plan accordingly. Of course, byelections are in many ways different to standard elections, given the much higher quota, and thus the much greater Cicero Group | 1
importance of transfers in determining by-election winners. Often the larger parties and less transfer friendly parties lose out to smaller, more transfer friendly parties such as the Greens or to independents (interestingly, Sinn Féin have only ever won one by-election, illustrating the importance of transferability). While the most recent IPSOS/Irish Times polling indicates that the electorate are satisfied with the government on Brexit and the economy (with Fine Gael opening an 8-point lead over Fianna Fáil in the most recent Red C/Sunday Business Post polling (32% and 24% respectively), the performances of the main parties will provide an invaluable test of popular sentiment. A solid Fianna Fáil performance would serve as some relief to Micheál Martin’s party and could see off a general election until the spring of 2020. However, if Fine Gael is able to claim even one of the 4 seats on offer, Leo Varadkar will likely see this as a relative victory over the naysayers and may well grant to his backbenchers the early election they are pushing for. After all, government parties have only won three by-elections in the last 35 years. With this in mind, we take a look at the front runners for each constituency facing a by-election.
Cork North Central Councillor Padraig O’Sullivan (FF)
Senator Colm Burke (FG)
Probably the easiest of the four contests to predict will take place on the North-side of Cork City, where general election poll topper Billy Kelleher MEP is expected to pass on his seat to his Fianna Fáil colleague Councillor Pádraig O’Sullivan. At the last election, Kelleher received the third most votes of any candidate in the country, exceeding the quota by over four thousand on the first count. Fine Gael Senator and former MEP Colm Burke is expected to challenge hard for the seat. However, it is almost unimaginable that the party will lose the seat on this occasion, and for this reason, it is unlikely that simply retaining the seat will be enough to motivate Micheál Martin to hasten his plans towards a post-Brexit general election.
Dublin Fingal
Senator James Reilly (FG)
Independents 4change candidate
Senator Lorraine Clifford-Lee (FF)
Whilst Independents 4 Change MEP and long-time campaigner Clare Daly will probably look to hand over her Dáil seat to a fellow left-wing activist (although it is still uncertain who this will be) the path of succession is far from clear cut in the case of the Dublin Fingal by-election. In the past, popular anti-establishment figures have often succeeded in passing on their seats to their similarly minded heir apparent. For example, Luke Ming Flanagan’s RoscommonSouth Leitrim seat passed to the Independent Alliance’s Michael Fitzmaurice following Flanagan’s 2014 move to Brussels. Similarly, Maureen O’Sullivan’s 2009 inheritance of the late Tony Gregory’s Central Dublin seat was never in doubt, with the long-time political comrade of Gregory beating Paschal Donohoe to the post by almost 4,000 votes. However, all may not be well in Dublin-Fingal as speculation mounts that Clare Daly is not actively supporting a candidate for this election. In fact, it is still not public knowledge who the candidate is. Her previous constituency running mate ex-councillor Barry Martin stepped down from Fingal County Council earlier in the year, and so is unlikely to step into her electoral shoes this time around. Even if Daly backs a candidate, they will likely lack her level of name-recognition in the constituency and struggle to gain momentum at this stage in the game. Former Health Minister and current Senator Dr James Reilly looks set to throw his hat into the ring for Fine Gael in the constituency. The 2011 Dublin North poll-topper narrowly lost on the final seat in the Fingal constituency in the last election and may well be in with a chance of returning to the lower house. Cicero Group | 2
The 2016 Fianna Fáil general election candidate and current Fianna Fáil Senator Lorraine Clifford-Lee will also contest the constituency. She has been campaigning hard over the last number of months with all the Fianna Fáil heavy hitters on the doors with her. This is a crucial area for her party so a win would be a huge boost. As with any three-way race under the single transferable voting system, it is highly probable that the winner will be decided by the direction of transfers between other candidates and these three.
Dublin Mid-West Councillor Emer Higgins (FG)
Councillor Paul Gogarty (Independent)
Former Tánaiste Frances Fitzgerald’s seat enters the contest as Fine Gael’s to lose. Losing the seat would be a big setback for the government, leaving a 4-seat constituency with no Fine Gael incumbent right on the border of the Taoiseach’s own Dublin West constituency. Their hopes lie in the hands of PayPal executive and South Dublin County Councillor Emer Higgins. Fine Gael received the highest overall number of votes in the last election in this constituency, whilst Fianna Fáil and a struggling Sinn Féin is unlikely to pose a significant challenge. However, the ‘Green wave’ following the European and local elections does raise the very real possibility that former Green party TD (and now self-described “green independent”) Paul Gogarty may finally make a return to national politics. This contest will likely come down to the question of which of the two Lucan natives can secure the most transfers. Given that governing parties are rarely transfer friendly, and Paul Gogarty is likely to be very transfer friendly, it is probable that Gogarty will swing the vote in the later rounds.
Wexford Verona Murphy (FG)
Councillor Malcolm Byrne (FF)
In contrast to Mick Wallace’s party colleague Clare Daly, Wallace is unlikely to have much influence in selecting his own Dáil replacement, having scraped in on the 13th count at the 2016 election. Many suspect that the former builder and Wexford F.C. chairman was motivated to try for Europe by his dismal re-election prospects domestically. Therefore, the Wexford by-election is likely to come down to a simple two-way contest between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. For this reason, it is likely to be the most crucial battleground in the post-election analysis, with a victory for either side providing a much-needed morale boost. Fine Gael will be represented by Verona Murphy, the president of the Irish Road Haulage Association – a position which will doubtlessly be advantageous to her given the prominent role she has played in the media Brexit debate, as well as the importance of Rosslare Europort to the Wexford local economy. On the other side, Fianna Fáil’s European election candidate for Ireland South Malcolm Byrne will try his hand in a general election for a second time, having failed to gain a second Wexford Fianna Fáil seat in 2016. Byrne’s status has increased significantly in the past year as a result of his close run for a place in Europe, which suggests that he may well be luckier this time. For the time being, the crucial Wexford by-election is far too close to call.
Get in touch... Aideen Ginnell Director - Ireland Aideen.Ginnell@cicero-group.com +353 1 961 9261
Written by: Colm O’Dwyer Account Executive Colm.Odwyer@cicero-group.com Cicero Group | 3