Zambia - Disaster risk profile

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DISASTER RISK PROFILE

Zambia

Building Disaster Resilience to Natural Hazards in Sub-Saharan African Regions, Countries and Communities

Building Disaster Resilience to Natural Hazards in Sub-Saharan African Regions, Countries and Communities

This project is funded by the European Union

Flood

Drought

© CIMA Research Foundation International Centre on Environmental Monitoring 2019 - Review This Disaster Risk Profile is a result of the ACP-EU Building Disaster Resilience to Natural Hazards in Sub-Saharan African Regions, Countries and Communities Programme Result 4 - implemented by UNDRR. DISCLAIMER This document is the product of work performed by CIMA Research Foundation staff.

The views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of the UNDRR or the EU. The designations employed and the presentation of the material do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the UNDRR or the EU concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area, or of its authorities, or concerning the delineation of its frontiers or boundaries.

RIGHTS AND PERMISSIONS The contents of this report are subject to copyright. Because UNDRR and CIMA Research Foundation encourage dissemination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for non-commercial purposes as long as full attribution is given: CIMA, UNDRR (2019): Zambia Disaster Risk Profile Nairobi: UNDRR and CIMA Research Foundation.

Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to CIMA Research Foundation: Via A. Magliotto, 2 - 17100 Savona - Italy • Phone: +39 019230271 - Fax: +39 01923027240 info@cimafoundation.org • www.cimafoundation.org Design and layout: CIMA Research Foundation

In collaboration with:

ZAMBIA DISASTER RISK PROFILE

Project Team Authors Roberto Rudari [1] Amjad Abbashar [2] Sjaak Conijn [4] Hans de Moel [3] Auriane Denis-Loupot [2] Luca Ferraris [1;5] Tatiana Ghizzoni [1] Adrien Gignac-Eddy [1] Isabel Gomes [1] Diana Mosquera Calle [2] Katarina Mouakkid Soltesova [2] Marco Massabò [1] Julius Njoroge Kabubi [2] Lauro Rossi [1] Luca Rossi [2] Roberto Schiano Lomoriello [2] Eva Trasforini [1] Marthe Wens [3]

Giulia Ercolani [1;6] Giacomo Fagugli [1] Elisabetta Fiori [1] Simone Gabellani [1] Alessandro Masoero [1] Alessia Matanò [1] Enrico Ponte [1] Ben Rutgers [4] Franco Siccardi [1] Francesco Silvestro [1] Andrea Tessore [1] Tufan Turp [7]

Scientific Team Nazan An [7] Chiara Arrighi [1;6] Valerio Basso [1] Guido Biondi [1] Gulia Bruno [1] Alessandro Burastero [1] Lorenzo Campo [1] Fabio Castelli [1;6] Mirko D’Andrea [1] Fabio Delogu [1]

Supporting Team Simona Pozzati [1] Luisa Colla [1] Monica Corvarola [1] Anduela Kaja [1] Daniela Perata [1] Tatiana Perrone [1] Elisa Poggi [1] Martino Prestini [1] Maria Ravera [1]

Editing Isabel Gomes [1] Adrien Gignac-Eddy [1] Graphics Rita Visigalli [1]

With the support of the UNDRR Regional Office for Africa CIMA Research Foundation [1] UNDRR [2] Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam [3] Wageningen University & Research [4] Università di Genova [5] Università di Firenze [6] Bogazici University [7]

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ZAMBIA DISASTER RISK PROFILE

Acknowledgments This report is the result of extensive research and close collaboration between Zambian governmental institutions, international organizations and scientific research centres.

The scientific consortium was led by CIMA Research Foundation in partnership with the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (ROA), and included the VU University of Amsterdam and the Wageningen University & Research.

During the past two years, as the scientific team collected data and conducted the risk assessment process, the vital contributions and continuous feedback provided by the Zambian institutions once again revealed the importance of collaborative, fruitful relationships for knowledge sharing and horizontal learning.

The consortium would like to express its gratitude and acknowledge the valuable support it received from all of its Zambian partners, namely: Disaster Management and Mitigation Unit, Ministry of Lands and Natural Resources, Lusaka City Council, Central Statistics Office, Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock, Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Health, Zambia National Public Health Institute, Ministry of Labour and Social Security, Ministry of Education, National Remote Sensing Centre, Zambia Meteorological Department and Zambezi River Authority.

The present disaster risk profile is not only the synthesis of insights gained during several months collecting data and conducting risk modelling in Zambia, but also the result of having mobilized more than six hundred risk managers from fifteen other African countries during strategic national workshops, consultative meetings and individual interviews. This opportunity, made possible through the implementation of the ACP-EU funded programme “Building Disaster Resilience to Natural Hazards in Sub-Saharan African Regions, Countries and Communities”, allowed us to listen to the real challenges, perceptions and priorities on risk governance and societal needs. As a result, we believe that we have moved towards a common understanding of risk in each of the countries we have had the privilege to work with.

Aligned to the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, and as representatives of the scientific community, the consortium will always encourage countries to increase research on disaster risk causes and scenarios, supporting local authorities in understanding the value of a systematic interface between policy and science for decision-making. Under this lens, three main groups of stakeholders were identified as key beneficiaries of this report: • Policy makers, risk managers and local academia, who wish to develop their risk knowledge and to apply and promote evidence-informed policy making for good public risk governance.

• Civil society leaders, who wish to explore the evolving roles that they may play, through advocacy and awareness, given the foreseen economic, environmental and social changes.

• International Donors and NGOs who wish to identify priority sectors and regions for risk mitigation funding and actions.

As science is first and foremost at the service of humankind, we hope that this report facilitates the translation of knowledge into solutions to reduce disaster losses, increase societal resilience and the capacity to create development models able to provide a better future for all of Earth’s inhabitants.

The Consortium

ZAMBIA DISASTER RISK PROFILE | ACKNOWLEDGMENTS 6

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Foreword Zambia has continued to experience extreme weather events, particularly floods, droughts and extreme temperatures due to global climate change. The frequency of occurrence and magnitude of these extreme events have continued to increase over space and time. The Southern region of the country is highly exposed to both flooding and droughts while northern half is more exposed to flooding.

The country has also witnessed a shift in rainfall patterns and growing seasons. Rainfall patterns have become erratic and unpredictable while changes in the growing seasons have become shorter. These extreme weather events have therefore, impacted negatively on rural livelihoods, agriculture and food security, critical infrastructure, health, education, energy, natural resources, housing, productive assets and transport.

In spite of various initiatives and adaption projects being implemented by government and stakeholders, the coping capacity of the vulnerable sectors has remained relatively low due structural and chronic vulnerabilities.

The Government of the Republic of Zambia has therefore, been working with CIMA Research Foundation with the support of the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction to develop country risk profiles and risk management mechanisms. The developed risk profiles are an important component of Disaster Risk Reduction and are based on the four pillars of early warning. The profiles include the estimation of monetary losses, under current and future climate for the different sectors as outline by the Sendai targets. These country risk profiles we go a long way in reducing disaster risk and vulnerability. The Country Risk Profiles will also provide a comprehensive analysis of hazard, risk and uncertainties for floods and droughts in a changing climate and socioeconomic situation which is also projected for the next 50 years.

My office will therefore work hard to ensure that policy recommendations are transformed in actionable targets to reduce disaster loss, reduce mortality rates and promote risk awareness for among vulnerable communities. Further, my office wishes to acknowledge that these risk profiles are country owned and will be used by various stakeholders to inform disaster risk planning in all the sectors of the economy. These risk profiles were developed with both global and national datasets making them more accurate due to the integration of local datasets. The risk profiles are complemented by guidelines on the usability of risk profiles in DRR/Climate Change Adaption and sustainable development policies, strategies and planning. The aim of the guidelines is to translate scientific evidence into concrete, applicable development strategies and policy suggestions both for the medium and the long term. It details the advantages of the probabilistic risk assessment methodology employed in the development of the country disaster risk profiles and puts it forward in a language used by decision makers.

Honorable Olipa Phiri Mwansa MP Minister OFFICE OF THE VICE-PRESIDENT

ZAMBIA DISASTER RISK PROFILE | FOREWORD 7

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Foreword I wish to take this opportunity to express my gratitude towards the United Nations Office for the financial, logistical and technical support rendered towards the development of the country risk profiles for Zambia. I also wish to acknowledge the relentless efforts that were put on by CIMA Research Foundation towards the successful development of the risk profiles. The CIMA Research Foundation was always in touch with my office organizing capacity building workshops to provide technical capacity and trainings to members of the Zambia Vulnerability Assessment Committee and the high-level people.

Acknowledgements also goes to the institutions and that participated and supported the risk profiling process. I am also highly thankful to all the members of staff from my office that worked with CIMA Research Foundation for the smooth implementation of the “Building Disaster Resilience to Natural Hazards in Sub-Saharan African Regions, Countries and Communities” Programme funded by the European Union.

Lastly, special thanks go to the Honourable Minister for the support rendered to the DMMU during the development of the risk profiles.

It my sincere hope that file risk profiles will be used to inform policy in risk financing, budgeting and disaster risk planning.

Chanda Kabwe National Coordinator Disaster Management and Mitigation Unit OFFICE OF THE VICE-PRESIDENT

ZAMBIA DISASTER RISK PROFILE | FOREWORD 8

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Acronyms & Abbreviations AAL

Annual Average Loss

ACP

African, Caribbean, and Pacific group of states

CCA

Climate Change Adaptation

CIMA

International Centre on Environmental Monitoring

DRM

Disaster Risk Management

DRR

Disaster Risk Reduction

EU

European Union

GDP

Gross Domestic Product

IIASA

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

IPCC

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

NGO

Non-Governmental Organization

PML

Probable Maximum Loss

PRA

Probabilistic Risk Assessment

RCP

Representative Concentration Pathway

SDGs

Sustainable Development Goals

SSPs

Shared Socio-economic Pathways

STAG

Scientific and Technical Advisory Group (UNDRR)

UN

United Nations

UNDRR

United Nations for Disaster Risk Reduction

USD

United States Dollars

ZAMBIA DISASTER RISK PROFILE | ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS 10

ZAMBIA DISASTER RISK PROFILE

Table of Contents Acknowledgments ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 6 Foreword .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 7 Risk information for sustainable development .............................................................................................................................. 10 Sendai - SDG’s Indicators ................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 12 Why a probabilistic risk assessment? .................................................................................................................................................................... 14 Climate Scenarios ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 16 Local data collected table ............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 19 Hazard / Vulnerability / Exposure definitions ..................................................................................................................................... 21 Flood .............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 24 Flood Risk Analysis ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 25 Results ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 28 Drought ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 34 Drought Risk Analysis .............................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 35 Results ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 38 Risk Profile key messages ............................................................................................................................................................................................................ 48 Policy Recommendations ............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 49 Glossary .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 52

ZAMBIA DISASTER RISK PROFILE | TABLE OF CONTENTS 11

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Risk information for sustainable development Over the last few decades, disasters resulting from natural hazards have often derailed hard-earned development plans and progress. Disasters damage infrastructure, lifelines and critical facilities and often result in severe human, financial, cultural and environmental losses. While disasters have direct consequences on development efforts, inversely, “bad development” can itself be a driver of risk. Non-planned urbanization and the building of non risk-resilient infrastructure are some examples of unsustainable development. These approaches to development increase the vulnerability of populations and of existing economic systems, while depleting the natural ecosystems, in a vicious cycle.

Over the last four decades, Sub-Saharan Africa has experienced more than 1000 disasters (World Bank, 2017), affecting approximately 320 million people (Preventionweb).

The majority of disasters in Africa are hydro-meteorological in origin, with droughts affecting the largest number of people and floods occurring frequently along major river systems and in many urban areas. Cyclones, geological events, sea level increase, coastal erosion and storm surges also deeply affect the continent. Sub-Saharan Africa’s disaster risk profiles relate information on natural hazards to each countries’ population and economic exposures and vulnerabilities. These exposures and vulnerabilities are exacerbated by countries’ limited coping capacities and resources for investing in disaster risk reduction and recovery measures. In this context, post-disaster rehabilitation often implies the intervention of international aid or the diversion of national funds originally planned for development interventions, resulting in a tremendous setback for societal development as a whole.

Disasters, however, can be significantly minimised with rigorous scientific risk modelling and through effective institutional and community preparedness. Considering that natural hazard events will likely change in frequency and magnitude due to climate change in the near future, it is necessary to ensure that risk assessments be conducted systematically, so as to provide a quantitative basis for disaster risk reduction and climate adaptation measures. Risk reduction processes must also be based on the effective communication and application of risk information through the strengthening of institutional and human capacities. Risk assessments and the risk information they provide should support risk-informed decision-making towards resilience building across all levels and within all socio-economic development sectors.

Risk reduction and resilience building are embedded in the various global frameworks adopted in 2015 and 2016, such as the Addis Ababa Action Agenda, the Paris Agreement, the Agenda for Humanity, the New Urban Agenda, the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.

These international frameworks are the result of a long-term process developed by different communities, often from different cultural and scientific backgrounds, but their final aim points towards the same sustainable future. As such, the frameworks are closely intertwined and should be coherently implemented. Challenges such as poverty eradication, economic growth, reduction of inequalities and the creation of sustainable cities and settlements are some examples that require a massive, joint effort to design and apply coherent policies and strategies.

ZAMBIA DISASTER RISK PROFILE | RISK INFORMATION FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT 12

ZAMBIA DISASTER RISK PROFILE

These need to be based on scientific risk information that assesses vulnerability, hazard and exposure to estimate disaster impacts - quantifying population and economic losses across different regions and sectors.

SENDAI / SDG’S INDICATORS

FLOOD

INDICATORS

SENDAI INDICATORS

B1

Number of directly affected people

C1 Direct economic loss attributed to disasters

C2

Direct agricultural loss (Crops)

C3

Direct economic losses to productive asset (Industrial Buildings + Energy Facilities)

C3

Direct economic losses in service sector

C4

Direct economic losses in housing sector

C5

Direct economic losses to transportation systems (Roads + Railways)

C5

Direct economic losses to other critical infrastructures (Health + Education Facilities) Number of destroyed or damaged

D2 health facilities

D1

Damage to critical infrastructure attributed to disasters

D3 Number of destroyed or damaged educational facilities

Number of other destroyed or damaged

D4 critical infrastructure units and facilities (Transportation systems)

GDP of affected areas*

* No official Sendai indicators

Number of potentially affected livestock units* Agricultural & Economic Indicators

Number of working days lost* Food Energy Loss Crop Drought Tolerance

SPEI

Standardised Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index*

SSMI Standardised Soil Moisture Index* Hazard Index

SSFI

Standardised StreamFlow Index*

SPI

Standardised Precipitation Index*

WCI

Water Crowding Index*

DROUGHT

C

P

SEP

• • • • • • • • • • •

• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •

C Current Climate (1979 - 2018)

C

P

P Projected Climate (2051-2100)

ZAMBIA DISASTER RISK PROFILE | RISK INFORMATION FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT 13

SEP

SDG

SDG INDIC.

1

1.5.1

11

11.5.2

13

13.1.1

2

-

1

1.5.2

1

1.5.2

1

1.5.2

1

1.5.2

1

1.5.2

11

-

11

-

11

-

1

1.5.2

2

-

2

-

2

-

2

-

SEP Socio-Economic Projection (2051-2100)

ZAMBIA DISASTER RISK PROFILE

Why a probabilistic risk assessment?

The added value of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is often misunderstood, as audiences tend to view it as a highly technical method that is difficult to apply or understand. These difficulties represent a challenge for communicating risk results.

A probabilistic disaster risk profile should be seen as a risk diagnosis instrument, as it provides indications on possible hazardous events and their impact. Both past and probable future events are taken into consideration in a comprehensive risk assessment exercise. In this risk profile two different climate scenarios were considered: • under current climate conditions: with disaster risk assessed using the observed climate conditions in the 1979 - 2018 period; • under projected climate conditions: with disaster risk being assessed under projected climate conditions (projected period 2051 - 2100), considering the IPCC scenario RCP 8.5 which foresees an increase in the global temperature between 1,5°C and 4°C by 2100, and assuming that further risk mitigation measures will not be put in place.

Probabilistic disaster risk profiles consider all possible risk scenarios in a certain geographical area. This means that both low frequency, high loss impact events, as well as high frequency, lower loss impact events are calculated. Included is their probability of occurrence, and all elements of the risk equation (risk = hazard X exposure X vulnerability / capacity), their variability and uncertainty ranges.

R =

H x E

Hazard

Exposure

x

V

Vulnerability

C

Risk

Capacity

Events which have never been historically recorded but might occur in projected climate conditions are also considered in the risk analysis. This feature is particularly useful in the context of climate change which is dramatically increasing uncertainty about future hazard patterns. Thus, societies need to calculate their “worst” possible impacts in order to be prepared. Under this lens, there is no valid alternative to a probabilistic analysis in order to address this uncertainty in a usable, quantitative way.

By assigning a probability of occurrence to each event magnitude, a probabilistic risk profile quantifies the expected direct impacts of disasters through economic metrics and affected population, both at aggregated and at disaggregated levels (ex. affected children, women and people with disabilities, different regions and development sectors). As this risk information is framed within return periods as a conventional probability measure, a PRA approach provides a clear vision of the risk trends: This risk information - expressed in an annual average loss curve (AAL) and a probable maximum loss curve (PML) is calculated both at a national scale, as well as by sector and by region, allowing for a geographic and quantitative comparison of disaster losses, as well as within a country and/or between countries. These analyses and comparison exercises are an important step of the risk awareness processes, key in pushing for risk reduction, risk adaptation and risk management mechanisms to be put in place.

ZAMBIA DISASTER RISK PROFILE | WHY A PROBABILISTIC RISK ASSESSMENT? 14

ZAMBIA DISASTER RISK PROFILE

PML CURVE INTERPRETATION Large-scale natural hazards don’t necessarily lead to important economic losses.

An event that occurs in a desert for example (i.e. no exposure) would not result in any losses. It is therefore important to understand the estimated losses events are likely to produce. The PML curve shows the likelihood of a certain scenario producing an estimated amount of losses. In this example, under current climate conditions, Country X would experience at least one disaster event, leading to losses equal or greater than 50 million dollars, on average every three to five years, and at least one disaster event, leading to losses greater or equal than 130 million dollars, on average every one hundred years. Under projected climate conditions (IPCC RCP 8.5), losses equal or greater than 50 million dollars can be experienced on average every three to five years, while losses equal or greater than 130 million dollars can be experienced on average once every 25 years. In this case, high frequency disasters - within a return period of 10 years and losses of equal or greater than 70 million dollars will keep a constant pattern, both in current and projected climate conditions. Medium and rare frequency loss events (medium and low likelihood) - with a return period ranging from 25 to 250 years are expected to lead to an increase between 30% and 50% in economic losses in future. The PML curve can be subdivided into three main layers: the Extensive Risk Layer typically associated with risk reduction measures (e.g. flood defences, vulnerability reduction interventions); the Mid Risk Layer that captures higher losses which are commonly mitigated using financial funds at country level, such as the contingency fund; the Intensive Risk Layer (severe and infrequent hazard events) that is normally managed trough risk transfer mechanisms such as insurance and reinsurance measures. The remaining Residual Risk (catastrophic events) is the risk that is considered acceptable/tolerable due to the extreme rarity of the events causing such loss levels. Given their rarity, there are no concrete actions to reduce risk beyond preparedness (e.g. civil protection actions, humanitarian aid coordination).

LIKELIHOOD 200

HIGH

MEDIUM

IN

LOW 0)

ate (2051-210

- 2018) Climate (1979

Intensive Risk Layer Mid Risk Layer

100

Extensive Risk Layer

Contingency Fund Disaster Risk Reduction Measures

50

50

100

150

200

250

SSP4

Challenges for Mitigation

ZAMBIA DISASTER RISK PROFILE | WHY A PROBABILISTIC RISK ASSESSMENT? Sustainability Inequality

LOW

15

LOW

Challenges for Adaptation

HIGH

C2

D

C3

D (

C3

D

C4

D

C5

D s

C5

D i

N

D2 h

D1

Damage to critical infrastructure attributed to disasters

SSP3

SSP2

SSP1

C1 Direct economic loss attributed to disasters

Return Period [Years]

Probabilistic disaster risk profiles are used as the first step in cost-benefit analyses of investments and policies for disaster risk reduction. Cost-benefit analyses show decisionmakers the required level of public sector financing and/or insurance mechanisms to support disaster risk management across sectors, an important tool for guiding risk Fossil-fueled Regional management policies.

In the medium and long term, these investments and policies Development Rivalry improve social and economic outcomes, as well as institutional coherence and efficiencies.

The return on these investments (i.e. from the decrease in disaster losses) will free resources, allowing future budgets to address other development challenges, thus creating a virtuous cycle. The integration of disaster risk profiles developed with a probabilistic approach Middle of instils an added value, not only by delivering highly reliable science-based information, the Road but also as a trigger for integrated and resilient development approaches.

SSP5

Numb

Risk Transfer

SENDAI INDICATORS

Current

HIGH

B1

Residual Risk Layer

150

D3 N

e

N

D4 c

(

GDP of

Numb * No official Sendai indicators

Loss [Million$]

Projected Clim

Agricultural & Economic Indicators

Numb

Food E

Crop D

SPEI

Standa

SSMI Stand Hazard Index

SSFI

Standa

SPI

Standa

WCI

Water

ZAMBIA DISASTER RISK PROFILE

Climate Scenarios Although the international community is consensually aware of the ongoing global warming due to the emission of greenhouse gases and air pollutants in the atmosphere, its main consequences are expected to be observed in the behaviour of projected climate patterns.

Both historical and projected climate patterns cannot be analysed without considering its intrinsic link with socioeconomic development. Factors like population, economic activity, urbanization, social equality and consumption patterns determine the way energy, land and natural resources are used. These in turn determine the emission of greenhouse gases and air pollutants in the atmosphere. Climate change is expected to impact socio-economic activities by, for example, increasing the frequency and severity of extreme weather events with direct impacts in societal well-functioning and development.

The way this climate-social dependency will translate into projected climate patterns is inherently uncertain, as it depends on human decisions, actions and behaviours yet to be made. But the future is not completely unknown: scenarios can be used to explore what could and what should happen in different decision-making contexts, analysing the consequences on the development of the projected climate conditions. With this in mind, in the late 2000s, the international climate community started developing scenarios to explore how the world might change over the next century, looking at possible trajectories of population, economic growth and greenhouse emissions, both through isolated and integrated approaches.

The Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) were developed to describe the different levels of greenhouse gases and other radiative forces that might occur by 2100 - not including any socioeconomic narratives - and are represented in four different pathways: 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5.

SCENARIO NAME

ASSUMES WE REDUCE CO2 EMISSIONS

PREDICTED TEMPERATURE INCREASE BY 2100

PREDICTED SEA LEVEL RISE BY 2100

RCP 2.6

VERY QUICKLY

(1°C)

0.44 m

RCP 4.5

SOMEWHAT QUICKLY

(1.8°C)

0.53 m

RCP 6.0

MORE SLOWLY

(2.4°C)

0.55 m

RCP 8.5

HARDLY AT ALL

(4.1°C)

0.74 m

Source table: https://www.exploratorium.edu/climate/looking-ahead

Another set of “pathways” were developed in 2016, by modelling the behaviour of socioeconomic factors such as population, economic growth, education, urbanization and the rate of technological development. They are known as the “Shared Socioeconomic Pathways” (SSPs) and are based on five different ways in which the world might evolve: ZAMBIA DISASTER RISK PROFILE | CLIMATE SCENARIOS 16

LIKELIHOOD 200

HIGH

MEDIUM

LOW

ZAMBIA DISASTER RISK PROFILE

INDICATORS

00)

ate (2051-21

B1

Residual Risk Layer

150

8)

(1979 - 201 rent Climate

Cur

Number of directly affected people

Risk Transfer

Intensive Risk Layer Mid Risk Layer

SENDAI INDICATORS

Loss [Million$]

Projected Clim

Contingency Fund

SSP1 - a world of sustainability focused growth and equality 100 Extensive Risk Layer

C2

Direct agricultural loss (Crops)

C3

Direct economic losses to productive (Industrial Buildings + Energy Facilitie

Disaster Risk SSP2 - a “middle of the road” world where trends broadly follow their historical patterns C3 C1 Reduction Measures

SSP3 - a fragmented world of “resurgent nationalism” 50 SSP4 - a world of ever-increasing inequality

Direct economic loss attributed to disasters

SSP5 - a world of rapid and unconstrained growth in economic output, energy use 50

100

150

200

250

Return Period [Years]

HIGH

SSP5

Regional Rivalry

Middle of the Road

SSP1

SSP4 Inequality

LOW LOW

C5 C5

Direct economic losses to other critic infrastructures (Health + Education Fac Number of destroyed or damaged

of destroyed or damaged Each of the SSPs socioeconomic conditions can D3 Number educational facilities of other destroyed or damag be related to estimates of future energy use D4 Number critical infrastructure units and facilit (Transportation systems) characteristics and greenhouse gas emissions, GDP of affected areas* therefore the connection between SSPs and Number of potentially affected livestock un RCPs is crucial for combined modelling.

Agricultural Number of working days lost* & Economic In our case the SSP2 - middle of the road pathway Indicators has been chosen as one of the most probable Food Energy Loss scenarios for future development. This choice is Crop Drought Tolerance SPEI Standardised Precipitation-Evapotranspiration based on the fact that no specific information SSMIa Standardised Soil Moisture Index* or study was gathered in this direction thus, Hazard SSFI Standardised StreamFlow Index* “central” scenario was thought to be Index the most Standardised Precipitation Index* SPI adequate choice. In the “middle of the road” SSP2, WCI Water Crowding Index* emissions will continue to increase through the end of the century, reaching between 65GtCO2 and 85GtCO2, resulting in a warming of 3.8-4.2°C. As a result, the combination of the RCP8.5 worst case scenario with SSP2 is a consistent choice that highlights the future risk figures in the absence of a strong, global and coordinated commitment towards a climate change mitigation policy. * No official Sendai indicators

Challenges for Mitigation

SSP2

Sustainability

Direct economic losses in housing se

Direct economic losses to transportat systems (Roads + Railways)

Damage to critical infrastructure attributed to disasters

SSP3

Development

C4

D2 health facilities

D1

Fossil-fueled

Direct economic losses in service sec

Challenges for Adaptation

HIGH

Source image: https://climatescenarios.org/ primer/socioeconomic-development

Both RCP and SSPs were designed to be complementary: while the RCPs set pathways for greenhouse gas concentrations and the amount of warming that could occur by the end of the century, SSPs set the stage on which reductions in emissions will or will not - be achieved. Moreover, SSPs are now being used as important inputs for the latest climate models and will be integrated in the Sixth Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (to be published in 2020-2021) and to explore how the climate goals of the Paris Agreement could be met.

SOCIO-ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR ZAMBIA This risk profile assumed the SSP2 for its projection analysis: a “middle of the road” scenario world where the world trends broadly follow their historical patterns.

According to these conditions, the population of Zambia in 2050 will more than double compared to the 2019 official projection data whereas GDP is expected to increase by eleven times.

POPULATION

17.4

GDP

2019

[Million People]

21.2 2015

38.8

2050 Projection

[Billion$]

235.8

2050 Projection

7

CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE

RCP 2

6 5 4 3 2

22,8 22,3 21,8 21,3

ZAMBIA DISASTER RISK PROFILE | CLIMATE SCENARIOS 17

1 0

[C°]

[°C]

23,3

2025 - 2049

2050 - 2074

Model used in Risk Profi

ZAMBIA DISASTER RISK PROFILE

PROJECTING POPULATION GROWTH AND URBANIZATION Population levels are projected to increase in the future, but population distribution is also projected to change dramatically. Urbanization will be a driving force in many African countries in the coming decades. This will affect the riskscape, especially for localized hazard patterns such as the ones on floods. In this profile a model has been used to mimic population growth and urbanization based on a simplified Cellular Automata similar to the one proposed in the literature (i.e. SLEUTH from Clarke and Gaydos, 1998*). Starting from a grid representation of population distribution over the country, the model simulates the evolution of two simultaneous processes triggered by a myriad of seemingly random events: population growth in each location and population migration from one location to another. The evolving population pattern is conditioned by population density, presence of bodies of water, distance that needs to be covered for internal migration and the ability of certain locations/cities to attract populations. The attractiveness of a certain location increases with its vicinity to transport infrastructure and with increasing urban connectivity, so that urbanization is a spontaneous, dynamic evolution of the model. Parameters of the model are calibrated with data and projections of population growth and urbanization from UNWorld Population Prospects**.

City of Mazabuka, current population density

0 10 30 100 300 1000 3000 10.000 30.000 [People]

City of Mazabuka, 2050 projection of population density

* Clarke, K.C., and L. Gaydos., 1998. Loose-coupling a cellular automaton model and GIS: Long-term urban growth prediction for San Francisco and Washington/Baltimore, Int J of Geographic Inf Sci. 12, 699–714. ** https://population.un.org/wpp/

ZAMBIA DISASTER RISK PROFILE | CLIMATE SCENARIOS 18

ZAMBIA DISASTER RISK PROFILE

Local data collected DATA TYPE

Built-up

Admin. boundaries

AREA

National, provincial and district boundaries

National, provincial and district

Ministry of Lands and Natural Resources (MLNR)

District

Lusaka City Council (LCC)

Sub-municipal (ward)

Population Statistics (age distribution, gender)

District

Minorities

Central Statistics Office (CSO)

Provincial

World Bank

Crop production (small- and large-scale)

District

Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock & Central Statistics Office (CSO)

Cost of production for different crops

Yearly

Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock

Provincial

Central Statistics Office (CSO) and Ministry of Finance (MoF)

Overall inflation

Provincial

Central Statistics Office (CSO)

Consumer Price Index (CPI) for education, food, health, etc.

Provincial

Central Statistics Office (CSO)

Average household size, per capita expenditure and income

Provincial

Central Statistics Office (CSO)

Prevelance of Asthmas, HIV, hypertension and Malaria

Provincial

Central Statistics Office (CSO)

Malaria - prevalence, mosquito-net ownership, indoor spraying, etc

Provincial

Ministry of Health (MoH)

District

Zambia National Public Health Institute (ZNPHI)

Provincial

Central Statistics Office (CSO) and Ministry of Labour and Social Security

Health

GDP

Agricultural Production

Sub-municipal (ward)

Inflation

Poverty

District

CPI

Population Projections (2011 to 2035)

Living Conditions

Population

SOURCE OF DATA

Building footprints Lusaka City Census and housing

Sector-specific GDP for provinces in USD and Zambian Kwacha (2015) Provincial GDP in USD and Zambian Kwacha (2015)

Epidemic prone areas Employment Informal Economy Labour

EXPOSURE

LEVEL OF DETAILS

Own use production workers Social protection Unemployment Working age population Working conditions

ZAMBIA DISASTER RISK PROFILE | LOCAL DATA COLLECTED 19

ZAMBIA DISASTER RISK PROFILE

Critical Infrastructure

EXPOSURE

AREA

DATA TYPE

LEVEL OF DETAILS

SOURCE OF DATA Ministry of Education and the National Remote Sensing Centre (NRSC)

Primary and secondary schools countrywide Health Facilities including rural health posts, healthcentres and hospitals

MoH and the NRSC

-

Power genartion facilities with energy sources

NRSC

Monthly / 40 stations

Zambia Meteorological Department (ZMD)

Daily / 17 stations

Southern African Science Service Centre for Climate Change and Adaptive Landuse (SASSCAL)

Monthly / 40 stations

Zambia Meteorological Department (ZMD)

Observed minimum and maximum temperature for ~ 5 years

Daily / 17 stations

Southern African Science Service Centre for Climate Change and Adaptive Landuse (SASSCAL)

Observed water levels and flows (rating formula included) for ~19 years

Daily / Monthly 10 stations for the Zambezi Basin

Zambezi River Authority (ZRA)

Aquifers, catchments, rivers, etc.

Aquifers, basin blocks, catchments, lakes, rivers and wetlands

-

NRSC

Type of event (flash flood, riverine flood, storm event, drought etc…)

Trunks and main roads, and railways

Data on flood events and their related impacts countrywide

-

Disaster Management and Mitigation Unit (DMMU)

Event-specific, aggregated at a district level

-

Disaster Management and Mitigation Unit (DMMU)

Temperature Number of people affected/displaced

LOSS

Discharge

HAZARD

Rainfall

Observed rainfall for ~ 10 years

Observed rainfall for ~ 5 years Observed minimum and maximum temperature for ~ 10 years

ZAMBIA DISASTER RISK PROFILE | LOCAL DATA COLLECTED 20

ZAMBIA DISASTER RISK PROFILE

ZAMBIA CLIMATE TRENDS Zambia is a landlocked country in southern Africa, with a tropical climate in the Köppen climate classification. Most of the country is classified as humid subtropical or tropical wet and dry, with small stretches of semi-arid steppe climate in the south-west and along the Zambezi valley.

Zambia has a tropical climate where temperatures remain relatively cool throughout the year due to the high altitudes of the East African Plateau.

The highest seasonal temperatures are reached in the hot, dry season, with temperatures between 22 ‐ 27°C (from September to November), and 15 ‐ 20°C in the winter months (from June to August).

Similarly to other southern African countries,

Zambia map of Köppen climate classification

temperature observations indicate that Zambia has

experienced

a

considerable

increase

in

temperature over recent years. An analysis of climate data from 1970 to 2015 shows an average rise of around 1°C. Rainfall in Zambia is strongly influenced by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which causes further inter‐annual variability.

Tropical savanna (Aw)

17.4 17.4 38.8 38.8

Warm desert climate (BWh)

POPULATION

21.2 21.2 235.8 235.8

GDP

Temperate, dry winter, hot summer (Cwa)

dry winter, warm summer (Cwb) POPULATIONTemperate,2019 GDP

2015

2019

2015

[Million People]

2050 Projection

[Billion$]

2050 Projection

[Million People]

2050 Projection

[Billion$]

2050 Projection

the wet summer months in the southern half

TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TRENDS [°C] (1970 - 2015) 23,3

of the country, whilst the north of the country

22,8 23,3

simultaneously experiences significantly wetter‐

22,3 22,8

2015 2015 2015 2015

Rainfall varies over a range of 500 to 1,400

Trend Mean Annual Temperature Average of Mean Annual Temperature

mm (19.7 to 55.1 in) per year, with an average

Trend Mean Annual Temperature

approximately 975 mm.

[year]

[year]

[year]

Average of Mean Annual Temperature Mean Annual Temperature

to October/November).

annual precipitation over the entire country of

2010 2010

Mean Annual Temperature

2005 2005

August), and the hot dry season (from September

2000 2000

20,8

1995 1995

is subdivided into the cool dry season (from May to

20,8 21,3

1990 1990

season (May to October/November). The dry season

21,3 21,8 1985 1985

rainy season (from November to April) and the dry

21,8 22,3

1980 1980

The country experiences two main seasons, the

1975 1975

than average conditions.

[°C]

1970 1970

El Niño brings drier than average conditions in

[mm]

1300

[mm]

1163 1300 1025 1163

Average of the Annual Precipitation Annual Precipitation Average of the Annual Precipitation ZAMBIA DISASTER RISK PROFILE | COUNTRY CLIMATE 21

2010 2010

2005 2005

Annual Precipitation

2000 2000

1995 1995

1990 1990

1985 1985

1980 1980

750

1975 1975

750 888

1970 1970

888 1025

[year]

ZAMBIA DISASTER RISK PROFILE

ZAMBIA CLIMATE PROJECTIONS

21.2

compared the observed temperature and precipitation values 2019 2015 registered in the period 1980-2004 with the estimations of a set of global climate models provided by the Coupled Model 2050 Intercomparison 2050 Projection Projection [Million People] [Billion$] Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Three future periods (2025-2049, 2050-2074 and 2071-2095) were [°C] analysed considering the different Representative 23,3 Concentration Pathways (RCPs) used in the IPCC 22,8 Fifth Assessment Report for greenhouse emission 22,3 scenarios 2.

In all future projections, both long term and 21,8 short term, and for all emission scenarios, model 21,3 1

2025 - 2049 1985

1980

1975

2015

2010

RCP 4.5

RCP 8.5

700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 -100 -200 -300 -400

2071 - 2095

2050 - 2074 Model used in Risk Profile

CHANGE IN PRECIPITATION

2025 - 2049

[mm]

0

2015

1025

2010

1

2005

1163

2000

2

1995

1300

[C°]

3

1970

2005

Trend Mean Annual Temperature

[mm]

750

2000

Average of Mean Annual Temperature

5 4

888

1995

6

ojection

[year]

RCP 2.6

Mean Annual Temperature

1990

5.8

235.8

CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE

7

5

1990

1985

2

1980

1970

20,8

1975

38.8

simulations an increase in temperature.

RCP 2.6 RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5 CHANGE INshowed TEMPERATURE 7 The increase was more substantial in the high 6 emission scenario (RCP8.5) and for long-term periods projections. Projections in the high 5 emission scenario showed, moreover, an increase 4 in temperature between 2.2°C and 4.2°C for the 3 mid-term period (2050-2074) and an increase of 2 up to 4 °C for the long-term period (2071-2095).

1 Future changes in precipitation were more uncertain, however the models predicted a 0 2025 2049 2071 - 2095 2050 - 2074 moderate increase - around 10% - in precipitation for the medium term.

Projections for the longModel used in Risk Profile term period show a divergent change.

[C°]

17.4

POPULATION In a recent study Alder GDPet al.

RCP 2.6

2050 - 2074

RCP 4.5

RCP 8.5

2071 - 2095

Model used in Risk Profile

[year]

Annual Precipitation

of global models available for the area. Results show that the Regional Model forecasted changes in temperature and annual precipitation which are in line with the range of variability presented by Alder et al.

Within the RCP 8.5 scenario, the Regional Model predicts a moderate temperature rise compared to the Global ensemble. On the contrary, regarding the annual precipitation at the country level, the Regional Model predicts a higher increase in the long-term period than the one predicted on average by the Global ensemble.

[mm]

The climate indicators used in this risk profile have RCP 2.6 RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5 CHANGE INthe PRECIPITATION Average of Annual Precipitation 700been obtained using a climate projection model 600based on the RCP 8.5 - high emission scenario for 500 the period 2006-2100 (SMHI-RCA4 model, grid 400 300spacing 0.44° about 50 km - driven by the ICHEC200EC-EARTH model). This Regional high-resolution 100 model that is part of the CORDEX Africa project 3 0 -100was then accurately calibrated for the African -200domain, allowing for a better capture of the climate -300 variability and its inherent extremes. Projections -400 deriving from the Regional Model2071 were te (2051 - 2100) 2025 - 2049 - 2095 then 2050 - 2074 checked for consistency against the full ensemble Model used in Risk Profile

REFERENCES

Current Climate

SECTOR (C2) 1: Alder, J. R., & Hostetler, S.AGRICULTURAL W. (2015). Web based visualization of Climate large climate data sets. Environmental Modelling Projected & Software, 68, 175-180.

PRODUCTIVE ASSETS (C3) 2: https://www.ipcc.ch/assessment-report/ar5/ 3: https://www.cordex.org/domains/region-5-africa/

00 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500

SERVICE SECTOR (C3)

HOUSING SECTOR (C4)

ZAMBIA DISASTER RISK PROFILE | COUNTRY CLIMATE

TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS (C5)

OTHER CRITICAL INFRASTR. (C5)

AAL [Million$/Y] 0

22

5

10

ZAMBIA DISASTER RISK PROFILE

Hazard process, phenomenon or human activity that may cause loss of life, injury or other health impacts, property damage, social and economic disruption or environmental degradation.

In order to best predict possible flood and drought scenarios, a modelling chain composed of climate, hydrological, and hydraulic models combined with available information on rainfall, temperature, humidity, wind and solar radiation, has been used. A set of mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive possible hazard scenarios that may occur in a given region or country, including the most catastrophic ones, is generated and expressed in terms of frequency, extension of the affected area and intensity in different locations.

Vulnerability conditions determined by physical, social, economic and environmental factors or processes which increase the susceptibility of an individual, a community, assets or systems to the impacts of hazards.

Direct losses on different elements at risk are evaluated by applying vulnerability functions. This links hazard intensity to the expected loss (economic loss or number of affected people) while counting for associated uncertainty. Vulnerability functions are differentiated by the typology of exposed elements, and also take into account local factors, such as typical constructive typologies for infrastructures or crop seasonality for agricultural production. In the case of floods, vulnerability is a function of water depth. For agricultural production, the vulnerability is a function of the season in which a flood occurs.

In the case of agricultural drought, losses are computed in terms of lack of production for different crops from a nominal expected production. A similar approach is used for hydrological drought, the evaluation of which focuses on loss of hydropower production.

Exposure people, property, systems, or other elements present in hazard zones that are thereby subject to potential losses.

Losses caused by floods and droughts are assessed in relation to population, GDP and a series of critical sectors (education, health, transport, housing, and the productive and agricultural sectors). The sectors are created by clustering all of the different components, which contribute to a specific function (e.g. the health sector is comprised of hospitals, clinics and dispensaries). Publicly available global and national data, properly generated, enables the location of these elements at high resolution, e.g. 90 metres or lower, for the whole country. The total number of people and the national GDP (in USD) are considered in both current (2016) and future (2050) scenarios. The critical sectors are characterised in terms of their economic value (in USD), using the most updated information available.

ZAMBIA DISASTER RISK PROFILE | HAZARD - VULNERABILITY - EXPOSURE 23

ZAMBIA DISASTER RISK PROFILE

FLOOD Flood Risk Analysis ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 25 Results ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 28

Results

(Fig. & Tab.)

POPULATION (B1)................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 28 F01 - F02 : Annual Average Number of potentially affected people.............................................................................. 28 F03 : Annual Average Number of potentially affected people....................................................................................................... 28 F04 - F05 - F06 : Potentially affected people - Maps................................................................................................................................................. 29 F07 : Probable Maximum Loss Curve of potentially affected people........................................................................... 29 DIRECT ECONOMIC LOSS (C1)............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 30 F08 : Average Annual Loss................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 30 F09 : Average Annual Loss per Sector............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 30 F10 - F11 : AAL - Average Annual Loss - Maps............................................................................................................................................................................ 30 F12 : Probable Maximum Loss Curve................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 31 GDP............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 31 F13: Annual Average GDP Affected......................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 31 F14: Annual Average GDP produced in potentially affected areas..................................................................................... 31 DIRECT ECONOMIC LOSS PER SECTOR..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 32 F15 - F16 : AAL - Average Annual Loss in service sector - Maps.......................................................................................................................32 F17 : Probable Maximum Loss Curve in service sector............................................................................................................................................................32 F18 - F19 : AAL - Average Annual Loss in housing sector - Maps.................................................................................................................32 F20 : Probable Maximum Loss Curve in housing sector......................................................................................................................................................32 F21 - F22 : AAL - Average Annual Loss in transportation systems - Maps..........................................................................32 F23 : Probable Maximum Loss Curve in transportation systems................................................................................................................32

ZAMBIA DISASTER RISK PROFILE | FLOOD 24

ZAMBIA DISASTER RISK PROFILE

Flood Risk Analysis Flood risk assessment involves four main steps: flood hazard assessment; identification and characterization of exposed elements; vulnerability assessment and capacity / performance of flood protection/structural mitigation measures in lowering flood damaging conditions. From the combination of these four steps into a flood model we are able to determine risk.

Different procedures and methodologies to determine risk are used worldwide through a variety of models and approaches. Their common aim is to understand the probability that different magnitudes of damaging flood characteristics - considering flood depth, horizontal flood extent, flood velocity and flood duration - will occur over an extended period of time. These estimates can be calculated both in current and projected climate conditions through a consistent analysis of meteorological, geological, hydrological, hydraulic and topographic properties of the watershed, channels, and floodplains, resulting in detailed hazard maps. Hazard maps are then combined with the reproduction of past events patterns and the modelling of projected future events.

Information on the performance capacity of flood protection measures is finally added to the analysis. This workflow allows for the estimation of the “expected” water depth for a certain location and/or individual infrastructures, for a set of reference scenarios.

From this step on, it is possible to explore the full frequency distribution of events and the consequent damage to exposed assets, taking into consideration their different levels of vulnerability.

The probability of a given flood magnitude is expressed in terms of the “return period” (or recurrence interval). Return period is the average time interval, in years, separating two consecutive events equal or exceeding the given flood magnitude. The damage assessment is converted into economic metrics through the computation of the average annual loss - the expected loss per year, averaged over many years - and the probable maximum loss - a relationship describing all the potential losses with a certain probability range.

GLOBAL CIRCULATION MODEL

REGIONAL CIRCULATION MODEL

CIMA’S HYDROLOGICAL MODEL CONTINUUM

=

CIMA’S HYDRAULIC MODEL REFLEX

DETAILED HAZARD MAPS

FLOOD DEFENSES

BIAS CORRECTION FOR OBSERVED TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION

EXPOSURE

FLOOD RISK ASSESSMENT PROCESS

0,70 m

SIMULATION OF 3000 YEARS OF POSSIBLE EVENTS

1,20 m

3,5 m

VULNERABILITY

IMPACT ASSESSMENT Hazard x Exposure x Vulnerability /Capacity AFFECTED PEOPLE

ZAMBIA DISASTER RISK PROFILE | FLOOD RISK ANALYSIS 25

ECONOMIC LOSS AAL PML

ZAMBIA DISASTER RISK PROFILE

Within this articulated process, access to data is of vital importance to achieve an accurate risk evaluation. Not only is it necessary to feed information to the modelling chain for the identification of possible hazards in specific locations, such as historical series of observed temperature, rainfall and discharges volumes, it is also crucial to feed the damage models with detailed data on population and assets’ levels of exposure and vulnerability. It is only possible to fully understand the economic, social and environmental impacts of past and future possible events with this data. To this end, the present risk profile considers five categories of potentially exposed values. Information about those values were provided by local institutions whenever available. Regional and global datasets were used both as substitutes, when local data was not available, and as data validators, to cross check the consistency of different data sources.

POPULATION Population estimates were obtained through official censuses at the maximum level of detail available - in the case of Zambia this information was obtained at the ward level.

Further information on age, gender, schooling and the presence of vulnerable groups were accessed through official datasets at the local or district level. Global datasets on population were only used in this study to retrieve spatial binary information (population/ no-population at any point in space) or information on the relative distribution of population inside a given area. This study considered population according to two different levels of detail:

• the density, meaning the spatial distribution of population across the country; • the statistical composition, according to the population categories used to identify

vulnerable segments (e.g. children, women, people with disabilities).

Projections for future population were produced using the Shared Economic Pathway - SSP2 - “Middle of the Road” where global population growth is expected to be moderate in the first half of the century and levels off in the second half.

BUILT-UP Information on the built-up area refers to two main aspects: to the description of the physical exposure of buildings, in terms of their spatial location inside or outside flood-prone areas; the elements which might influence its vulnerability - such as its occupancy characteristics, the existence of basements, and the typology of its constructive materials; The built-up data prepared for the present risk profile were obtained from the exposure dataset used in the Global Assessment Report 2015 and in the The Atlas of the Human Planet 2017. They have been divided into three sector classes, according to the exposure categories reported in the Sendai Framework Indicators: housing sector distribution, service sector distribution and productive sector distribution (limited to the industrial sector as the energy production is considered separately).

Whenever possible, local data was also included, regarding:

• Number of storeys of residential buildings in urban and rural areas; • Number of storeys of non-residential buildings (e.g. business, government etc.) in

urban areas; • Construction materials in urban and rural areas; • Elevation of the ground floor; • Average construction cost of residential buildings in urban and rural areas per unit surface area; • Average construction cost of non-residential buildings (e.g. business, government etc.) in urban areas per unit surface area.

ZAMBIA DISASTER RISK PROFILE | FLOOD RISK ANALYSIS 26

ZAMBIA DISASTER RISK PROFILE

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) Present national GDP data was obtained from the World Bank national studies (https:// data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD). However, in order to improve the accuracy of the risk results in terms of affected GDP, two increased levels of detail were added from official national data:

• Sub-national gross domestic product (provincial and, if available, municipal level) • Sector-specific gross domestic product (agriculture, industry, services and commerce

(either at national or, if available, at sub-national

Projections of the GDP in 2050 were extracted from the SSP Database from IIASA, using the estimates for the Shared Economic Pathway - SSP2 - ‘Middle of the Road’ scenario where income inequality persists or improves only slowly and challenges to reducing vulnerability to societal and environmental changes remain.

AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION The data on agricultural production refers mainly to the economic value and the vulnerability of the most relevant crop types in the national agricultural production.

Estimates of crop distribution, useful to understand production and land use patterns, were obtained through the Spatial Production Allocation Model (MapSpam - September 2019 release) and coupled with national production prices.

The use of local data was useful to identify the most relevant crops and to describe its vegetative/growing cycles, used for vulnerability characterization. Thus, the data analysed included:

• List of crops which account for at least 85% of the Total Gross Production Value of all

crops for the country; • The economic values in terms of production cost and/or wholesale price in USD per ton for each crop; • Information on the growing cycle of each crop.

In this risk profile iteration, the selection of crops considered was not only based on their commercial value but also to the role that specific produces play in the average diet of the population. A decrease in the availability of this crops on the national market may result in food insecurity.

CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURES Critical infrastructures data refer to the description of the physical exposure in terms of spatial location of school, medical and hospital facilities, energy plants, as well as the transport network combined with their economic values. The main added values of this information rely on knowing the exact location of the infrastructure, the typology of its construction materials, and, in the case of roads, also its elevation and the construction costs per km.

As the available information on critical infrastructures - such as education and health structures was not spatially accurate enough for their direct use in the risk assessment, the scientific team opted to aggregate these data at the ward or district level (depending on the available ancillary information) and then redistribute it in space following the localization of built-up areas. This allowed for the maintenance of the information content of the data on each relevant sector, decreasing potential errors linked to considering a wrong localization of the buildings.

ZAMBIA DISASTER RISK PROFILE | FLOOD RISK ANALYSIS 27

(1979 - 2018) (2051 - 2100)

ZAMBIA DISASTER RISK PROFILE Climate Climate 43 Climate & SEP Million$/Y POPULATION (1979 - 2018) (2051 - 2100) (2051 - 2100) Projected

550.20% 742

[°C]

Current 23,3 Climate (1979 - 2018)

22,8

CHILDREN 33700-4 21,8

YOUTH 5-14 1970

(2051 - 2100)

People/Y

ELDERLY >65

People/Y

(2051 - 2100)

0.17% 66.000

0.17%

POTENTIALLY AFFECTED

PEOPLE WITH DISABILITIES

People/Y

Zambia is highly impacted by severe weather Current and extreme climate events. Floods represent Climate (1979 - 2018) one of the most prominent issues in Zambia, Projected affecting on average about 20.000 people every Climate (2051 - 2100) Current 0.06% year, equivalent to 0.11 % of the total population Climate Million$/Y ref 2019. These numbers are predicted to change (1979 - 2018) 0.07% in the future due to two main concurrent factors: Projected Million$/Y Climateare expected on the one hand climate patterns (2051 - 2100) 0.06% to shift and cause an increase of the flood hazard level Million$/Y while on the other, socio-economic development is predicted to continue at a rapid 0.07% rate. Considering one possible projected climate Million$/Y scenario (RCP8.5 - worst case scenario), the average

60 - 64 55 - 59 50 - 54 45 - 49 40 - 44

Current Climate (1979 - 2018)

FEMALES

1250

35 - 39 30 - 24 25 - 29 20 - 24 15 - 19 10 - 14 5-9 1-4 <1

Projected Climate &

26.97

(2051 - 2100)

9.3

2005

1995

1990

2000

0

SCHOOLS

--0.5

HOSPITALS

-

--1.5

86.800

DIRECTLY AFFECTED

ELDERLY >65

53.5%

DIRECTLY AFFECTED

CHILDREN People/Y0-4

Million People/Y

(1979 - 2018) 69.5%

DIRECTLY AFFECTED

7.19 Million People/Y

YOUTH 5-14

Projected Climate

41.4%

637.200

-1

-2

9.3

People/Y

Projected Climate &

Socio-Economic Projection (2051 - 2100)

1500 1000

53.5%

26.97

Current Climate

69.5%Projected

(1979 - 2018)

Climate

(2051 - 2100)

1.043.900 Current

AG -3

Climate (1979 - 2018)

Projecte Climat -3.5 (2051 - 21

565.200

-4.5 637.20

97.900 People/Y

925.800

-4

-5

TRANS 1.043.9

OTHER

(2051 - 2100)

4500 4000 Million 3500 3000 2500 2000

75

2050

-

925.800

YOUTH 5-14

Projected Climate

Current Climate

Million People/Y

1250

D3 - AFFECTED (UNITS/Y)

565.200

DIRECTLY AFFECTED

(1979 - 2018)

Socio-Economic Projection (2051 - 2100)

16.27

-2.5

Current Climate

Million People/Y

10

10.000

Projected Climate Current (2051 - 2100) Projected Climate Climate D2 - AFFECTED (1979 - 2018) (UNITS/Y) (2051 - 2100) DIRECTLY AFFECTED

7.19

15

2050

1300

POTENTIALLY AFFECTED

CHILDREN 0-4

41.4%

16.270

[mm]

Annual Average Number of potentially affected People - Fig. F03

75 - 79 70 - 74 65 - 69

25

20 Trend Mean Annual Temperature People/Y People/Y

POTENTIALLY AFFECTED

1970

31

31

Age > 85 80 - 84

People/Y

35

888 by floods every year number of people affected could reach 32.000 (0.18% of750the current population), causing an overall increase in the average risk of 60%.

On the other hand, if we consider socio-economic Annual Precipitation development and therefore the possible change in Current Projected Average of the Annual Precipitation values distribution, concentration and vulnerability, Climate Climate (1979 2018) (2051 - 2100) the estimate could increase more than threefold, AGRICULTU D4 AFFECTED (KM/Y) reaching 66.000 people affected on average every PRODU INFRASTRUCTURES SER year. This figure, that corresponds to about 0.20% of Current Project HOU the total population, is the result of the combined D3 - AFFECTED (UNITS/Y) Climate Clima - and OTHER CRITIC effect of theSCHOOLS expected future hazard patterns(1979 - 2018) (2051 - 2 the overall increase in population associated with D2 - AFFECTED (UNITS/Y) D4 - AFFECTED (KM/Y) - Africa.

HOSPITALS the urbanisation foreseen inINFRASTRUCTURES many-countries in -

25

25

People/Y

45 40

520 84030 Average of Mean Annual Temperatu

1163 PEOPLE WITH [B1] - Annual Average Number of potentially affected People DISABILITIES Tab.1025 F02

[B1] - Annual Average Number of potentially affected People Fig. F01

7620

840 Mean Annual Temperature

10.000

POTENTIALLY AFFECTED

FEMALES

People/Y

60 55 50

520

POTENTIALLY AFFECTED

ELDERLY >65

People/Y

75 5490 70

7620 5510

1985

Projected Climate & (2051 - 2100)

3370 5490

1980

Projected Climate &

POTENTIALLY AFFECTED

80

2005

YOUTH 5-14

(2051 - 2100)

5510 20,8

POTENTIALLY AFFECTED

People/Y

Projecte Climat (2051 - 21

Projected (1979 - 2018) Climate (2051 - 2100)

65

21,3

1975

POTENTIALLY AFFECTED

Current Climate

[Billi

2000

2018)

Projected 19.600 19.600Projected ClimateClimate 0.11% 0.11%31.900 31.900 0.18% 0.18% Socio-Economic Projection Socio-Economic Projection 66.000

38.8

2050 Projection

1985

CHILDREN 0-4

22,3

1975

(1979(1979 - 2018)-

2019

1980

POTENTIALLY AFFECTED

POTENTIALLY AFFECTED

GD

0.26% 0.31%

[Million People]

[B1] - ANNUAL AVERAGE NUMBER OF POTENTIALLY AFFECTED PEOPLE

742

17.4

0.20% 0.26% 0.31%

%

Current Current Climate Climate

55

1995

43 %

Million$/Y

POPULATION

Projected

1990

Current

(2051 - 2100)

500

500

0

DIRECTLY AFFECTED

[People/Y]

Million People/Y

ELDERLY >65

Current

ZAMBIA DISASTER RISK PROFILE | FLOOD RESULTS Climate 28

86.800

1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500

Projected Climate

(1979 - 2018)

(2051 - 2100)

k - days / Y

820

4580

%

0.47%

2.62%

People/Y

Loss [Ton/Y] 350.000

97.90

People/Y

ZAMBIA DISASTER RISK PROFILE

[B1] - ANNUAL AVERAGE NUMBER OF POTENTIALLY AFFECTED PEOPLE

POPULATION

Anomaly in Projected Climate Conditions (2051 - 2100) Fig. F05

0 - 50 50 - 100

Reduced by a factor of more than ten Reduced by a factor of ten Reduced by half

100 - 250 250 - 1000 1000 - 2600

No important variation

[People Affected/Y]

Increase by half Quadruplicating Increased by a factor of more than four

Current Climate Conditions (1979 - 2018) - Fig. F04

Anomaly in Climate and Socio-Economic Projections (2051 - 2100) Fig. F06

In terms of geographical distribution, the majority of the affected population is concentrated in the south-western, southern regions, and the north-eastern regions. In the projected future, this pattern is confirmed and the impact of droughts in the south-western and southern parts of the country are even exacerbated. The age and gender structure of the affected people resembles the overall age and gender structure of the country's demography. Zambia has a young population and, as such, the majority of the affected people are below 30 years of age.

However, it is interesting to focus on the most vulnerable categories, such as children in their school age and elderly people, which might

suffer serious consequences from floods events.

The majority of affected people are women. This is particularly interesting in terms of vulnerability, especially in rural areas where women attend to the majority of the work in agricultural fields and as such are more vulnerable to unexpected flood episodes. Women also play a prominent role in the rural society and their enhanced exposure to floods should be better analyzed from the socioeconomic standpoint.

PML - Fig. F07

[B1] - PROBABLE MAXIMUM LOSS CURVE OF POTENTIALLY AFFECTED PEOPLE

[k-People Affected]

When the PML curves are analysed, it is interesting to note that a 50-year return period event (i.e. an event that is on average experienced with equal or greater magnitude twice per century) can affect about to 50.000 people, but this figure could increase in the future (considering both climate change and socio-economic development) up to 200.000 people. It is evident that such an event would pose serious civil protection management issues and should be considered when planning emergency resources.

Return Period [Years] Current Climate (1979 - 2018)

Projected Climate (2051 - 2100)

Projected Climate & SEP (2051 - 2100)

ZAMBIA DISASTER RISK PROFILE | FLOOD RESULTS 29

0.11% People/Y

RCP 8.5

Climate

(2051 - 2100)

31.900 ZAMBIA DISASTER RISK PROFILE

Projected Climate &

Socio-Economic Projection (2051 - 2100)

0.18%

5510

7620

520

840

People/Y

People/Y

POTENTIALLY AFFECTED

ELDERLY >65

People/Y

66.000 0.17%

POTENTIALLY AFFECTED

FEMALES

[C1] DIRECT ECONOMIC Projected Climate (2051 - 2100) People/Y

LOSS

YOUTH 5-14

[C1] - AVERAGE ANNUAL LOSS

[C1] - Average Annual Loss - Fig. F08

10.000

16.270

1250

2050

POTENTIALLY AFFECTED

PEOPLE WITH DISABILITIES

Average Annual Loss per sector - Fig. F09

095

AGRICULTURAL SECTOR (C2)

Current Climate

Current Climate Projected Climate

PRODUCTIVE ASSETS (C3)

(1979 - 2018)

25

Projected Climate

Million$/Y

31

0.06%

RCP 8.5

SERVICE SECTOR (C3)

(2051 - 2100)

HOUSING SECTOR (C4)

0.07%

TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS (C5)

Million$/Y

500

Projected Climate (2051 - 2100)

-

-

-

-

D4 - AFFECTED (KM/Y)

OTHER CRITICAL INFRASTR. (C5)

0

Current Climate (1979 - 2018)

INFRASTRUCTURES D3 - AFFECTED (UNITS/Y)

1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500

AAL [Million$/Y] 0 SCHOOLS 5

People/Y]

10

Considering the RCP8.5HOSPITALS projected climate scenario D2 - AFFECTED (UNITS/Y)

095

ojected Climate (2051 - 2100)

Sendai Target C envisages the substantial reduction of direct economic losses by 2030.

It is estimated that Zambia currently loses 25 million USD per year in direct economic losses due to floods, which is roughly 0.06% of the total economic value of the assets considered and 0.12% of the annual GDP. Housing and services (commercial) are the most affected sectors, followed by transportation, critical facilities, productive sectorsCurrent and agriculture.

(RCP8.5 - worst case scenario), the average direct economic losses will reach 31 million USD per year, about 30% more than the value estimated Current under current climate conditions. This is a Climate significant increment that should be(1979 taken into - 2018) account in long-term planning and policies even DIRECTLY AFFECTED considering the extreme uncertainty associated 565.200 CHILDREN 0-4 with such types of estimates.

Climate

(1979 - 2018)

3

4

5

6

7

7.19

41.4% Million People/Y

Projected Climate &

Socio-Economic Projection (2051 - 2100)

26.97

1.043.900

DIRECTLY AFFECTED

86.800

97.900

People/Y

People/Y

ELDERLY >65

53.5% Million People/Y

Reduced by a factor of more than ten Reduced by a factor of ten Reduced by half

0.5 - 1.5 1.5 - 2.5

69.5% Million People/Y

2.5 - 3.5

No important variation

3.5 - 5

Increased by half Duplicating

5-7

Triplicating

[Million$/Y] AAL - Current Climate Conditions (1979 - 2018) Fig. F10 Current Climate

Anomaly in Projected Climate Conditions (2051 - 2100) Current Projected Fig. F11 Climate Climate (1979 - 2018)

Projected Climate

50

637.200

925.800

(2051 - 2100)

9.3

Projected Climate (2051 - 2100)

DIRECTLY AFFECTED

YOUTH 5-14

Projected Climate

-

Current The impact of Climate floods in Zambia has a clear (1979with - 2018) the majority of economic 100 150 200 spatial distribution losses expected to occur in Projected the western and Climate

(2051 - 2100)

economic losses are expected to increase in k - days / Y 820 4580 central regions - Copperbelt, Central Province, Eastern Province and Lusaka. Uncertainty in % and the 0.47% 2.62% climate predictions ongoing evolution of the socio-economic situation of the country could significantly influence these estimates.

75

- 2100) southern provinces. Results for (2051 projected climate 2.4% conditions (RCP8.5 - worst case scenario) do not Million$/Y significantly modify the spatial pattern, but the

250

8.5%

Million$/Y

Current Climate

Projected Climate

4.1

5.7

Loss [T

35

28

21

(1979 - 2018) (2051 - 2100)

ZAMBIA DISASTER RISK PROFILE | FLOOD RESULTS 30

Million Unit/Y %

38.8% 54.3%

14

7

1163

ZAMBIA DISASTER RISK PROFILE

1025

750

1970

888

[C1] DIRECT ECONOMIC

LOSS

[C1] - PROBABLE MAXIMUM LOSS CURVE PML - Fig. F12

Loss [Million$]

The PML curves provide important information on the frequency of floods and associated economic losses. Despite the fact that the average annual losses are of 25 million USD per year, floods with losses of at least 50 million USD are expected to occur very frequently, with a return period of about 10 years (i.e. an event with equal or greater magnitude that is on average experienced every decade). Under projected climate conditions, the frequency of high-impact floods will increase significantly, and it will be very likely (return period of about 25 years) to experience floodsClimate (1979 - 2018) Current with losses of atAge least 80 million USD.

ected mate - 2100)

490

620

40

ple/Y

270

050

Projected Climate (2051 -

> 85

80 - 84 75 - 79

Return Period [Years] Current Climate (1979 - 2018)

70 - 74 65 - 69 60 - 64 55 - 59

Projected Climate (2051 - 2100)

GDP

ANNUAL AVERAGE 50 - 54 GDP PRODUCED 45 - 49 IN POTENTIALLY AFFECTED AREAS 40 - 44

An indication sector is potentially the most affected, followed 35 -of 39 the risk incidence on the economy can drawn from the GDP affected by the agricultural sector and the critical 30be - 24 (i.e. the GDP produced in areas affected by infrastructure related services. This is due to the 25 - 29 floods). It is20a- 24 proxy of direct and indirect GDP accounting not only for the asset values, potential losses due to floods.

Areas subject to but also of the value created by the activities 15 - 19 flooding over a certain magnitude might suffer linked to those assets. In the projected future, 10 - 14 indirect losses: assets might be partially or the value of the losses of the productive sector 5-9 completely damaged and economic activities still dominates.

1-4 stopped. In the current climate, the annual Current Projected Projected <1 GDP produced in areas affected by floods Climate Climate Climate & SEP (1979 - 2018)0 (2051 - 500 2100) (2051 - 2100) 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 4500 0.2% 4000 of3500 represents on average the 3000 total (43 million$/Y). Under projected climate conditions [People/Y] 55 742 Million$/Y 43 this value is expected to increase to 0.26% (55 million$/Y) and, if socioeconomic projections % 0.20% 0.26% 0.31% are taken into consideration, it is expected to reach 0.31% (742 million$/Y). The productive Annual Average GDP Affected - Tab. F13

Annual Average GDP produced in potentially affected areas - Fig. F14

jected mate 1 - 2100)

-

ected mate

Current Climate (1979 - 2018)

Current Climate (1979 - 2018) Climate

Projected (2051 - 2100)

AGRICULTURAL SECTOR Current

POTENTIALLY AFFECTED

3370

5490

POTENTIALLY AFFECTED

5510

7620

CHILDREN 0-4

Climate

Projected Climate (2051 - 2100)

(1979 - ASSETS 2018) PRODUCTIVE

19.600

Projected Climate

SERVICE SECTOR

0.11% HOUSING SECTOR People/Y

OTHER CRITICAL INFRASTR

31.900

Projected Climate &

[Million$/Y]

66.000

-0.5 -1

0.17% People/Y

0.18%

7

Socio-Economic Projection (2051 - 2100)

0

YOUTH 5-14

(2051 - 2100)

6

People/Y

5

4

3

2

POTENTIALLY AFFECTED

1

0

ELDERLY 2 >65 3 1

4

520 5

6

People/Y

ZAMBIA DISASTER RISK PROFILE | FLOOD RESULTS POTENTIALLY AFFECTED 31

FEMALES

POTENTIALLY AFFECTED

PEOPLE WITH DISABILITIES

7

840 People/Y

10.000

16.270

1250

2050

ZAMBIA DISASTER RISK PROFILE

DIRECT ECONOMIC

LOSS PER SECTOR AAL Current Climate (1979-2018) - Fig. F15

Anomaly in Projected Climate (2051 - 2100) - Fig. F16

SERVICE SECTOR [C3] PROBABLE MAXIMUM LOSS CURVE Fig. F17

0.2 - 0.5 0.5 - 0.7

Reduced by a factor of more than ten Reduced by a factor of ten

Current Climate

Reduced by half

0.7 - 1

No important variation

1-2

Increased by half

2 - 2.5

Duplicating

[Million$/Y]

Triplicating

AAL Current Climate (1979-2018) - Fig. F18

Loss [Million$]

Projected Climate

Return Period [Years]

Anomaly in Projected Climate (2051 - 2100) - Fig. F19

HOUSING SECTOR [C3] PROBABLE MAXIMUM LOSS CURVE Fig. F20

0.2 - 0.4 0.4 - 0.6 0.6 - 1 1 - 1.5

Reduced by a factor of more than ten Reduced by a factor of ten

Current Climate

Reduced by half No important variation Increased by half

1.5 - 3

Duplicating

[Million$/Y]

Triplicating

AAL Current Climate (1979-2018) - Fig. F21

Loss [Million$]

Projected Climate

Return Period [Years]

Anomaly in Projected Climate (2051 - 2100) - Fig. F22

TRANSPORT SECTOR [C5] PROBABLE MAXIMUM LOSS CURVE Fig. F23

0 - 0.1 0.1 - 0.2 0.2 - 0.35 0.35 - 0.5 0.5 - 0.75 [Million$/Y]

Reduced by a factor of more than ten

Loss [Million$]

Projected Climate

Current Climate

Reduced by a factor of ten Reduced by half No important variation Increased by half Duplicating

Return Period [Years]

Triplicating

ZAMBIA DISASTER RISK PROFILE | FLOOD RESULTS 32

ZAMBIA DISASTER RISK PROFILE

The most affected sectors, in terms of direct economic losses, are housing and services, followed by transportation. The spatial distribution of the annual average losses are very similar for the three sectors and the most affected area are the provinces of the west and the south. High impacts are expected in the central part of the country for the housing sector.

The direct economic losses are estimated to increase for all sectors under projected climate conditions.

Specifically, the average annual loss for the housing and service sectors is expected to increase significantly in Lusaka and the Copperbelt Province. Similarly, the losses for the transportation sector in the Central Province are likely to be significantly higher in absolute terms under projected climate conditions while the Copperbelt and Eastern Province are expected to experience the most important relative increases.

Disaster Management and Mitigation Unit

The PML curves for the three sectors confirm that Zambia is exposed to very frequent floods and the frequency of high impact floods can increase significantly under projected climate conditions. The impacts of floods with a medium likelihood of occurrence (return period of 50 years) are expected to almost double under projected climate conditions.

ZAMBIA DISASTER RISK PROFILE | FLOOD RESULTS 33

ZAMBIA DISASTER RISK PROFILE

DROUGHT Drought Risk Analysis .............................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 35 Results ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 38

Results

(Fig. & Tab.)

POPULATION (B1)................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 38 D01 : Annual Average Number of People living in drought affected areas................................................. 38 D02 - D03 - D04 : Potentially affected people - Maps........................................................................................................................................... 38 D05 - D06 : Annual Average Number of People directly affected by drought.................................... 39 D07 - D08 - D09 : Directly affected people - Maps........................................................................................................................................................ 39 DIRECT ECONOMIC LOSS (C1)............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 40 D10 : Average Annual Loss............................................................................................................................................. 40 D11 : Average Annual Loss per Sector............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 40 D12 : Probable Maximum Loss Curve in agricultural sector................................................................................................................. 40 D13 : Probable Maximum Loss Curve in hydropower sector............................................................................................................... 40 LIVESTOCK................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 41 D14 - D15 : Potentially affected livestock units - Maps...................................................................................................................................... 41 D16 : Annual average number of potentially affected livestock units........................................................................ 41 AGRICULTURE.................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 41 D17 - D18 : AAL - Average Annual Loss - Maps........................................................................................................................................................................ 41 D19 : C2 - Direct agricultural loss................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 41 D20 : Annual average number of working days lost................................................................................................................................................... 42 D21 : Agricultural production loss.............................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 42 D22 - D23 : Food energy supply - Maps...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 43 D24 : Food supply consequences................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 43 D25 - D26 : Drought tolerant crops - Maize...................................................................................................................................................................................... 44 D27 - D28 : Drought tolerant crops - Bean......................................................................................................................................................................................... 44 HAZARD........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 46 D29 - D30 : Combined drought hazard - Maps...................................................................................................................................................................... 46 D31 - D32 : WCI Water Crowding Index - Maps...................................................................................................................................................................... 46 D33 - D34 : SEI - Standardized Evapotranspiration Index - Maps..................................................................................................... 47 D35 - D36 : SSMI - Standardized Soil Moisture Index - Maps............................................................................................................ 47 D37 - D38 : SSFI - Standardized Streamflow Index - Maps..................................................................................................................... 47

ZAMBIA DISASTER RISK PROFILE | DROUGHT 34

ZAMBIA DISASTER RISK PROFILE

Drought Risk Analysis Drought risk in this report is assessed in four different ways: the analysis of drought hazard and potentially affected population and livestock; the estimation of drought vulnerability of the human population; the calculation of current and projected losses for hydropower production; the estimation of current and projected damage to crop production.

From the combination of these four assessments, one can get a comprehensive understanding of the drought risk. Droughts can arise from a range of hydrometeorological processes that reduce water availability. With varying time gaps between the reduction in availability and a potential impact on the system, these processes can create conditions that are “significantly drier than normal”, and limit moisture availability to a potentially damaging extent (WMO 2016). A drought hazard, interacting with the vulnerable conditions of the exposed people and assets, becomes a disaster when it causes a serious disruption of the functioning of society, leading to losses. (UNISDR 2015).

The social, economic and environmental impacts of droughts stem from their severity, duration and spatial extent; and from the situation of people, production capacities and other tangible human assets exposed to the drought hazard; it is a combination of the drought hazard, exposure and vulnerability to droughts (UNISDR 2015). In order to align the risk profiles with the Sendai Targets, the approach focuses on the: • • • • •

number of affected people B1; sections “Drought hazard, exposure and vulnerability”; agricultural loss (C2; section “Agricultural losses”); productive assets (C3; section “Hydropower losses”); and the direct losses (C1) as sum of C2 and C3.

DROUGHT HAZARD, EXPOSURE AND VULNERABILITY Due to the multi-faceted character of droughts, numerous drought indices exist. One group is the standardized indices, representing anomalies from a normal situation by analysing at least +30 years (preferably 50) in a standardized way. The following five standardized drought indices are used in this risk profile: the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), the Standardized Evapotranspiration Index (SEI), the Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSMI) and the Standardized Stream Flow Index (SSFI). Together, they cover all parts of the hydrological cycle.

Larger, longer and/or more intense droughts are more severe and will result in a larger impact. To include these intensity, duration and spatial extent aspects of drought, the total water deficit (i.e. how much less water than average) is calculated as the cumulative sum of the monthly water deficits. This is done using the different indices and also different deficit intensity thresholds. Then, using an artificial intelligence algorithm applying decision trees, the deficits under different thresholds for different indices are matched with reported drought disaster impacts. This is done for each agro-ecological zone in the country, assuming the vulnerability to droughts is similar under similar agro-ecological conditions. As such, local-tailored indices and thresholds can be used to assess the drought hazard under current and projected climate conditions.

ZAMBIA DISASTER RISK PROFILE | DROUGHT RISK ANALYSIS 35

ZAMBIA DISASTER RISK PROFILE

This drought hazard map can be combined with population, GDP and livestock maps so as to calculate how many people or animals are exposed to different drought events.

From this, the annual average amount of these potentially affected people and animals can be estimated.

No estimations about mortality and the impact of droughts on livelihoods could be made; nor numbers of how many people would be in need of emergency aid because of the drought impact. While the regional vulnerability is included (droughts are defined based on their effects for each agro-ecological zone), human vulnerability (or livestock vulnerability or GDP sectoral vulnerability) are not accounted for. Quantifying vulnerability to droughts as the relation between severity and the expected impacts requires detailed records on droughts losses and damages which are seldom available.

However, one extra proxy for vulnerability was included in the risk profiles: the Water Crowding Index, which quantifies the amount of available water locally available per person.

CIMA’S HYDROLOGICAL MODEL CONTINUUM

REGIONAL CIRCULATION MODEL

GLOBAL CIRCULATION MODEL

FAO CROP YIELD FUNCTION

CROP YIELD MODEL

BIAS CORRECTION FOR OBSERVED TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION

LIST OF MAIN CROPS

CROP VULNERABILITY STANDARDIZED DROUGHT INDICES

EMDAT

DISASTER LOSS LOCAL DATA

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE ALGORITHM

HARVEST AREA MAPS

EXPOSURE

CROP CROP LOSS PRODUCTION AAL/PML

FOOD SECURITY DROUGHT HAZARD MAPS AGRO-ECOLOGICAL ZONES

IMPACT ASSESSMENT Hazard x Exposure x Vulnerability /Capacity

AFFECTED

PEOPLE

DROUGHT RISK ASSESSMENT PROCESS

LIVESTOCK

GDP

HYDROPOWER LOSS AAL/PML

ZAMBIA DISASTER RISK PROFILE | DROUGHT RISK ANALYSIS 36

ZAMBIA DISASTER RISK PROFILE

HYDROPOWER LOSSES Assessing the drought risk for hydropower is possible when given sufficient information on hydropower dams and their reservoirs. Using the GRAND database, all dams with 1st or 2nd use “electricity” were selected and their characteristics (location, height, surface area, capacity) retrieved. Using the coordinates of the dam, corresponding discharge, evaporation, and precipitation were retrieved from the hydro-meteorological data.

For each time step, the influx (discharge and precipitation), as well as the outflux (outflow and evaporation) were estimated. Outflow is a function of the storage capacity (minimal, maximal and current) and long term mean average inflow. Using a reservoir capacity equation, the height of the water level in the reservoir was subsequently determined, which was an important parameter for determining the energy that can be generated.

Using a fixed energy price (0.14 USD/kWh) this was translated to a monetary value.

In order to identify losses, a baseline energy production was established. For this, the average annual production over the baseline period (1979-2018) was used. As such, a year with below average production (and thus revenue) was considered a loss (equal to the difference with the baseline average). This way, annual production and loss series were created, allowing to calculate average annual losses and marginal losses for return periods of 5, 10, 25, 50 and 100 years. This was done for current climate conditions, as well as projected climate conditions (keeping the baseline production the same).

AGRICULTURAL LOSSES When there is insufficient moisture in the soil to meet the needs of a particular crop at a given time and location, drought-induced crop losses can occur. To estimate the risk of droughts on the arable sector and the risk to food security, the major crops for each country were selected based on (1) their contribution to the Gross Production Value of all crops in the country and (2) their importance as food for the population. Data have been acquired from FAOSTAT, MAPSPAM, EARTHSTAT, and supplemented with data derived from Zambia.

Generally, there is a fairly linear relation between the ratio of actual over potential evapotranspiration and crop yield, as represented by the FAO “water production function”. This relation was tailored for all crops by including a local crop drought sensitivity factor - a factor that is also determined by whether the crop is produced under rain fed or irrigated conditions. Further, reference yield values were then defined by matching the calculated crop yields with data from FAOSTAT. Then, the spatiallyexplicit crop yields' variability as response to changing hydrological conditions could be assessed on a yearly basis, and the annual production could be estimated by multiplying the yields with the harvested areas of the selected crops.

Production losses were calculated as the difference between the production of a year and the 20% lowest value from the current climate. A zero loss was assigned to any year with a production equal or above this 20% threshold. We determined the average annual loss by dividing the summation of these annual losses by the total number of years, including the non-drought years. These calculations can be done in kilograms but also converted to USD by multiplying the production loss with the market price of the evaluated crops .

Additionally, effects of droughts on (1) amount of lost working days (reflecting job opportunities in arable farming), (2) potential loss of food energy supply (in Kcal, calculated as the part of the production which is available for consumption as food for people in Zambia, subtracting the production for export and other uses) and the amount of people who could potentially have been fed by this lost production (assuming Minimum Dietary Energy Requirement of 1730 kcal/cap,day and 10% household waste), and (3) production losses from using drought-adapted varieties (reflecting options for adaptation), have been estimated as well.

ZAMBIA DISASTER RISK PROFILE | DROUGHT RISK ANALYSIS 37

SCHOOLS ZAMBIA DISASTER RISK PROFILE

D2 - AFFECTED (UNITS/Y)

HOSPITALS

POPULATION

Curren Climat (1979 - 20

ANNUAL AVERAGE NUMBER OF PEOPLE LIVING IN DROUGHT AFFECTED AREAS

565.20

DIRECTLY AFFECTED Current Climate Conditions (1979 - 2018) - Fig. D02 CHILDREN 0-4

Current Climate

(1979 - 2018)

7.19

Projected Climate

41.4%

DIRECTLY AFFECTED

925.80

DIRECTLY AFFECTED

86.80

YOUTH 5-14

(2051 - 2100)

9.3

Million People/Y

Projected Climate &

Socio-Economic Projection (2051 - 2100)

26.97

ELDERLY >65

53.5% Million People/Y

People/Y

69.5% Million People/Y

0 - 5000 Annual Average Number of People living in drought affected areas Fig. D01

5000 - 20.000 20.000 - 45.000 45.000 - 100.000 100.000 - 400.000

(1979 - 2018)

%

250

18.8% Million People/Y

Projected Climate &

Duplicates

Million Unit/Y Quadruplicates %

Socio-Economic Projection (2051 - 2100)

Million People/Y

- 2018) (205

4.1

5

38.8% 54

Current Climate

(1979 - 2018)

Proj Clim

(2051

Million$/Y

29

1

%

1.9%

11

ZAMBIA DISASTER RISK PROFILE | DROUGHT RESULTS 38

Pro Cl

Increased by a factor of more than four

Anomaly Climate and Socio-Economic Projections (2051 - 2100) Fig. D04

(2051 - 2100)

21.4%

Current Climate

(1979 No important variation

Projected Climate

3.72

2.6

Reduced by half

(1979 - 2018)

3.26

0.47%

Reduced by a factor of more than ten Reduced by a factor of ten

8.5%

(2051

45

Anomaly in

Conditions (2051 - 2100) Fig. D03

Pro Cli

820

k - days / Y Climate Projected

75

2.4%

Current Climate

[People/Y]

With respect to current climate conditions (19792018 climate), the probability of occurrence of soil moistureCurrent and meteorological droughts will Climate increase in the projected climate. This is caused (1979 - 2018) by an increase in variability in precipitation and Projected temperature causing more frequent, but shorter Climate drought conditions despite median and (2051 - 2100) average yearly precipitation increases. Streamflow, on the other hand, does reflect the higher average Million$/Y precipitation and displays a decrease in drought probability (-60%) under projected climate Million$/Y conditions (2051-2100).

Under current climate conditions, areas comprising around 7 million people (42% of the total 2019 population) are hit by drought every year, on average. The areas with a high population density such as around Kabwe and Chingola - Kitwe - Ndola have large numbers of people living in areas affected by droughts, but some less populated areas in the semi-arid parts of Zambia, such as Sioma and Mulobezi have high percentages of the population living in the Current affected area.Climate

2.4% 25

250 ZAMBIA DISASTER RISK PROFILE

(2051 - 2100)

31 8.5% 0.07%

Million$/Y

Million$/Y

Current Climate (1979 - 2018)

D4 - AFFECTED (KM/Y)

-

INFRASTRUCTURES

Projected Climate (2051 - 2100)

Current Climate

ProjectedAGRICULTU Climate PRODUC

(1979 - 2018) (2051 - 2100)

-

D2 - AFFECTED (UNITS/Y)

HOSPITALS [B1] - ANNUAL AVERAGE NUMBER OF PEOPLE % DIRECTLY AFFECTED BY DROUGHT

(1979 - 2018)

Climate 18.8% Current

(1979 - 2018)

7.19

Million People/Y

Projected 41.4% Climate & Million

Projected Climate

Socio-Economic Projection (2051 - 2100)

26.97 17.9% 69.5%

3.72

YOUTH 5-14

Projected Climate

21.4%

%

(2051 - 2100)

9.3

ELDERLY >65

Million People/Y

97.900

People/Y

-1.5

-2

180

-2.5

-3

11.6%

-3.5

-4

-4.5

People/Y

-5

[B1] - Annual Average Number of People directly affected by drought - Tab. D06

Anomaly in Projected Climate Conditions (2051 - 2100) Fig. D08 Current Climate

(1979 - 2018)

Current Climate

(1979 - 2018)

Million$/Y

1.043.900

1.9%

-1

(2051 - 2100)

29

86.800

DIRECTLY AFFECTED

[B1] - Annual Average Number of People directly affected by drought - Fig. D05

2.4%

637.200

925.800

DIRECTLY AFFECTED

Million Million People/Y People/Y

75

(1979 - 2018)

Million$/Y

(2051 - 2100)

People/Y Million Socio-Economic People/Y Projected ProjectionClimate (2051& - 2100) 53.5%

6.93

Projected

Climate Current Projected (2051 - 2100) Climate Climate

565.200

DIRECTLY AFFECTED

CHILDREN 0-4

0

-0.5

Projected Climate (2051 - 2100)

250

8.5% Million$/Y

k - days / Y

820

%

0.47%

0 - 5000 5000 - 20.000

45.000 - 100.000

Current Climate

100.000 - 400.000

Current Climate Conditions (1979 - 2018) - Fig. D07

than ten Reduced by a factor of ten 4580 Loss [Ton/Y] Reduced by half 350.000 2.62% No important variation

Million Unit/Y

4.1

%

38.8% Current Climate

(1979 - 2018)

280.000

Quadruplicates

Projected 210.000 Climate Increased by a factor

(1979 - 2018) (2051 - 2100) of more

Current Climate

(1979 - 2018)

(2051 - 2100) of more

Duplicates

20.000 - 45.000

[People Affected/Y]

Projected Reduced by a factor Climate

5.7

than four 140.000

Anomaly in Climate and 54.3% Socio-Economic Projections (2051 - 2100) Projected Fig. D09

70.000

Climate

(2051 - 2100)

Based on these assumptions, in this risk profile, Million$/Y the combination of 29 people 180 vulnerability and coping capacity to drought was estimated as a 1.9% 11.6% function % of rural/urban population concentrations within each province. Rural communities with higher levels of isolation were then assumed to suffer wider drought consequences.

Computations show that among 7.2 million people (on average, per year) living in areas affected by drought in current climate conditions, an average of 3.2 million people per year are estimated to be directly affected. This number increases to 3.7 million under projected climate conditions and to 6.9 million if both projected climate conditions and socioeconomic evolution are considered.

Individuals’ vulnerabilities andProjected coping capacities 3.26 Climate to drought conditions depend(2051 on their physical, - 2100) 18.8%environmental social, economic, and Million 3.72 factors or People/Y processes. People living in urban environments Projected 21.4% Climate & Million are usually less vulnerable to drought than those Socio-Economic People/Y Projection (2051 - 2100) living in rural communities. Rural communities 6.93 tend to have a limited short-term coping capacity 17.9% and a limited long-term Million adaptive capacity. These People/Y communities strongly rely on national and more local disaster management authorities’ efforts to mitigate such adverse effects and, in extreme cases, are forced to migrate elsewhere to satisfy their subsistence needs. In this sense, transport infrastructure plays a key role in providing access to water during an emergency, as remote unconnected communities are more difficult to reach by external relief resources.

ZAMBIA DISASTER RISK PROFILE | DROUGHT RESULTS 39

Projected Climate

3.26

-

38.8% 54.3%

Current Climate (1979 - 2018)

Current Climate

5.7OTHER CRITIC

-

SCHOOLS

SER

HOU

POPULATION4.1

Million Unit/Y -

D3 - AFFECTED (UNITS/Y)

0

Current Climate

Million$/Y

2.62%

1.3% 12.0%

Million$/Y 0.06%

0.47%

%

(2051 - 2100)

Projected Climate

CASSAVA MA

-

Projection (2051 - 2100)

26.97 [Million$/Y]

OTHER CRITICAL INFRASTR

-

5

6

7

[C1] -1DIRECT ECONOMIC LOSS -1.5

637.200

Current Climate

-2 -2.5 Current Climate (1979-3 - 2018)

1.043.900

-3.5 75

Projected Climate

-4 Million$/Y -4.5

250

People/Y

-5

AGRICULTURAL SECTOR (C2)

(2051 - 2100)

%

(2051 - 2100)

820

4580

0.47%

2.62%

Current Climate

PRODUCTIVE ASSETS (C3)

8.5%

Loss

3

2

Projected Climate

50

AAL [Million$/Y] 0

Million$/Y 2050-2075 2076-2100

Projected Climate

(1979 - 2018)

Direct Economic Losses/ per k - days Y sector - Fig. D11

2.4%

97.900

100Current150 Projected 200 Climate Climate

2

(1979 - 2018) (2051 - 2100)

[C1] - Direct Economic Losses Fig. D10

Million Unit/Y

4.1

1

5.7

The direct economic losses from agricultural and productive sector (hydropower) are estimated to be 75 million USD on average per year and to increase to 250 million USD under conditions. %projected climate 38.8% 54.3% The total Average Annual Loss for the agricultural sector (crops) rises greatly under projected climate conditions from 29 to 180 million USD per year, indicating that a substantial part of the annual crop production could be lost due to intensified ZAMBIA droughts in the projected climate. Compared Current to current Projected Current Climate by almost Climate climate conditions, losses in hydropower generation (C3) resulting from drought will increase Climate (1979 - 2018) (2051 - 2100) (1979 - 2018)climate conditions (for Mulungushi, Itezhi-Tezhi, Kafue Gorge and Kariba dams).

50% under projected PML C2 AGRICULTURAL LOSS

40

60

80

100 120 140 160 180 200

CASSAVA MAIZE SUGARCANE Retun Period [Years]

PML C3 HYDROPOWER LOSS SORGHUM SWEET WHEAT

GROUNDNUT RICE

Return Period [Years]

Present Climate

Future Climate

Projected Climate

360

240

180 120 60

10

20

30 40 50 60 70 Retun Period [Years]

80

90

100

Return Period [Years]

Present Climate

C3 - LOSSES

HYDROPOWER

C3 is computed exclusively considering losses in hydropower production. These are defined as production below levels with average reservoir conditions. Under current climate conditions, on average once every 5 years, a loss of about 80 million USD can be expected.

Hydropower losses are projected to increase under projected climate conditions reaching at least 200 million USD losses on average once every 5 years. This is a net result of increased losses in the south (Kariba dam), and reduced losses in the other hydropower stations.

300

0

POTATO

[C3] - PML - Fig. D13

Current Climate

0

AGRICULTURAL 1.9% 11.6%

Future Climate

ZAMBIA DISASTER RISK PROFILE | DROUGHT RESULTS 40

280.00

210.00

140.00

70.00

Loss [Ton/Y]

20

1.8% 8.5%

0

Current Climate

3.1% 13.7%

Million People/Y

1.9% 9.4%

70.000

1.3% 12.0%

300

0

17.9%

Current Climate

140.000

2.3% 12.4%

450

%

180

Loss [Ton/Y] C2 - LOSSES 17.500

Under current climate conditions, the probable maximum 14.000 loss from agriculture increases gradually when return periods go up from 10 to 200 years. It is worth noting that 10.500 these results become increasingly uncertain as we move into the very rare losses domain. Under projected climate 7000 conditions, these losses increase substantially in absolute units, and relative increases range from almost two times, 3500 with a 200 year return period, to 4 times, with a 10 year return period. More frequent losses thus become more ZAMBIA 0 important under projected climate conditions.

Million People/Y

6.93

Projected Climate

210.000

21.4%

1.3% 9.4%

Socio-Economic Projection (2051 - 2100)

600

[C2] - PML - Fig. D12

Projected Climate

Projected Climate &

280.000

0

3.72

Million People/Y

750

29

Million$/Y

(2051 - 2100)

0.0% 0.0%

18.8%

350.000

150

Projected Climate

3.1% 7.0%

3.26

Loss [Ton/Y]

Loss [Million$] Loss [Million $]

%

4

-0.5

Projected Climate (2051 - 2100)

Loss [Million $] Loss [Million$]

0)

3

0

0)

d

6 5 4DISASTER 3 2 RISK 2 0PROFILE 1 1 ZAMBIA

Million People/Y

d

%

7

69.5%

925.800 Climate 1.043.900 Climate

YOUTH 5-14

(1979 - 2018)

-3

(2051 - 2100)

(1979 - 2018)

AGRICULTURAL SECTOR -3.5

AGRICULTURAL SECTOR

ZAMBIA DISASTER RISK PROFILE

D4 - AFFECTED (KM/Y) DIRECTLY AFFECTED

INFRASTRUCTURES 86.800ELDERLY >65 D3 - AFFECTED (UNITS/Y)

SCHOOLS

People/Y

97.900

-

-4

SERVICE SECTOR

PRODUCTIVE ASSETS

-4.5 HOUSING SECTOR

-

People/Y

-

D2 - AFFECTED (UNITS/Y)

HOSPITALS

PRODUCTIVE ASSETS

OTHER CRITICAL INFRASTR -5

[Million$/Y] 7 6 2050-2075 2076-2100

-

5

LIVESTOCK

4

3

2

AAL [Million$ 0 1

ANNUAL AVERAGE NUMBER OF POTENTIALLY 0 AFFECTED LIVESTOCK UNITS

People/Y

Projected Climate

(1979 - 2018) (2051 - 2100)

5.7

38.8% 54.3%

Potentially Affected Livestock - Tab. D16 Current Projected Climate Climate Current Projected (1979 - 2018) (2051 - 2100) Climate Climate

Million$/Y k - days / Y % %

(1979 - 2018)

CASSAVA MAIZE SUGARCANE

(2051 - 2100)

1-2 2-3

Projected 3-4 Climate

210.000

6-8

140.000

38.8% 54.3%

% Climate Conditions (1979 - 2018) - Fig. D17 ALL - Current

70.000

Increase by half Quadruplicates Increased by a factor of more than four

Anomaly in Projected Climate Conditions (2051 - 2100) - Fig. D18

0

Under current climate conditions direct economic crop losses are around 29 million USDMAIZE per year.

The spatial GROUNDNUT distribution RICE CASSAVA SUGARCANE (1979 - 2018) (2051 - 2100) shows modest variations between different regions, with most of the regions at less than 3 million$/Y, two regions at Million$/Y 29 180 less than 4 million$/Y and in one region less than 8 million$/Y. These direct economic crop losses are expected to increase to % 1.9% 11.6% 180 million USD per year under projected climate conditions.

This increase is represented by a factor of more than six.

The percentage of the average Gross Production Value of the selected crops, on the other hand, rises to almost 12%.

Under projected climate conditions, increased droughts cause substantially higher direct economic crop losses in all regions. The western part displays relatively high losses (28 - 38 million $/Y), whereas in the eastern part losses remain relatively low at 3 - 8 million$/Y. The increase in losses between current and projected climates follows the same pattern: highest in the western and lowest in the eastern provinces.

Current Climate

SORGHUM

No important variation

Current Climate

5.7 AAL - [Million$/Y]

1.3% 12.0%

4.1

GROUNDNUT RICE

Reduced by a factor of more than ten Reduced by a factor of ten Reduced by half

280.000

4-6 (1979 - 2018) (2051 - 2100)

Million Unit/Y

AAL [Million

AGRICULTURE

C2 - DIRECT AGRICULTURAL 29 180 LOSS 820 4580 Loss [Ton/Y] 1.9% 11.6% 350.000 0.47% 2.62%

Current Climate

PRODUCTIVE ASSETS

Under current climate conditions, affected livestock (i.e.

People/Y 210.000 -5 droughts) amounts to about animals living in areas hit by 4 million units (39%). Livestock 2050-2075 units are2076-2100 calculated as the 140.000 sum of all animals in a certain place, weighed by the water and food needs of the animals (FAO conversion factors).

70.000 Under projected climate conditions, the number of affected livestock is projected to increase to more than 54% of the total 0 livestock population (with increases in all regions, especially in the central and southern provinces).

1.9% 9.4%

%

4.1

-4.5

2.3% 12.4%

Million Unit/Y

D15

3.1% 13.7%

Current Climate

-4 97.900Anomaly 280.000 in Projected Climate Conditions (2051 - 2100) - Fig.

Projected Climate

ZAMBIA DISASTER RISK PROFILE | DROUGHT RESULTS 41

3.1% 13.7%

2.62% 86.800

1.3% 9.4%

ELDERLY >65

Quadruplicates Increased by a factor AGRICULTURAL SECTOR of more than four

-3.5

Projected Climate

0.47%

DIRECTLY AFFECTED

Current Climate Conditions (1979 - 2018) - Fig. D14

Increase by half

Current Climate

%

350.000

[Units/Y]

No important variation

-3

1.3% 12.0%

YOUTH 5-14

-2.5

10.000 - 40.000

- 90.000 820 925.800 458040.000 1.043.900 Loss [Ton/Y] 90.000 - 260.000

Projected Climate

DIRECTLY AFFECTED k - days /Y

Reduced by a factor of more than ten Reduced by a factor of ten Reduced by half

-2

1.3% 9.4%

(1979 - 2018)

637.200

1.8% 8.5%

565.200

-1.5

Projected140 - 3000 Climate 3000 - 10.000 (2051 - 2100)

1.8% 8.5%

Current CHILDREN 0-4Climate

-1

1.9% 9.4%

DIRECTLY AFFECTED

-0.5

Projected Climate (2051 - 2100)

2.3% 12.4%

Current Climate (1979 - 2018)

SORGHUM

-

-

OTHER CRITICAL DIRECTLY AFFECTED

ELDERLY >65

-

AGRIC

INFRASTR

86.800

97.900

People/Y

People/Y

7 6 DISASTER 5 4 3 2PROFILE [Million$/Y] 0 1 ZAMBIA RISK

1

2

-4.5

00

3

4

5

6

7

PRO

-5

0

18)

-4

2050-2075 2076-2100

-0.5

AGRICULTURE -1

Projected Climate (2051 - 2100)

ANNUAL AVERAGE NUMBER OF WORKING DAYS LOST

-1.5

637.200

-2 -2.5

Annual Average Number of working days lost Tab. D20 Current Projected

Climate

Climate

4.1

5.7

(1979 - 2018) (2051 - 2100)

Million Unit/Y

Loss [Ton/Y]

Current Climate

350.000 280.000 Million$/Y

cted mate

2100)

80

6%

140.000 70.000 0

(1979 - 2018)

(2051 - 2100)

29

180

14.000

1.9%

11.6%

10.500 7000 3500

CASSAVA MAIZE SUGARCANE

GROUNDNUT RICE

SORGHUM

0.0% 0.0%

.3%

Projected Climate

.7

%

Loss [Ton/Y]

CASSAVA MAIZE SUGARCANE 17.500

Current Climate

- 2100)

210.000

1.3% 12.0%

ected mate

Projected Climate

1.8% 8.5%

62%

70.000

AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION 0 LOSS

1.9% 9.4%

580

140.000

38.8% 54.3%

%

- 2100)

2.3% 12.4%

ected mate

0

SWEET WHEAT POTATO

Agricultural Production Loss - Fig. D21

Crop production losses, induced by drought conditions, have been calculated for eight different crops in Zambia. Under current climate conditions, these losses are dominated by cassava, maize and sugarcane (physical units), and if expressed as % of the average crop production, they remain close to or lower than 3%. Under projected climate conditions, large increases in production loss have been calculated for all crops, due to intensification of droughts compared to the current climate. Relative losses range from 7.0 to 13.7%, with increase factors from 2.3 up to 9.2 (excluding wheat). For wheat, no drought effects were calculated because our data assume that most wheat is irrigated.

ZAMBIA DISASTER RISK PROFILE | DROUGHT RESULTS 42

200

1.8% 8.5%

-5

0.47% 2.62% 2050-2075 2076-2100

%

1.9% 9.4%

4580

3.1% 7.0%

People/Y

820

-4.5

2.3% 12.4%

97.900 k - days / Y

3.1% 13.7%

0

(2051 - 2100)

-4

The average number of lost Working Days (WDs) is linked to the crop production losses, because lowerAGRICULTURAL crop production linked to reduced labour SECTORis(C2) requirements, especially during harvest time. This Climate loss hasPRODUCTIVE been estimated at roughly Current 800 k-days/Y ASSETS (C3) Projected Climate [Ton/Y] underLoss current climate conditions. The increase in the projected 350.000 climate is more than fivefold. Thus, many 50 100 150 AAL [Million$/Y] 0 more people may have less farmwork employment opportunities. When compared to the total amount of 280.000 required WDs, the relative value for lost WDs is below 3% under both climates, but increases to 13.5% under projected 210.000 climate conditions, if compared to the WDs required for harvesting.

Projected Climate

(1979 - 2018)

Projected Climate

Current Climate

-3 Current -3.5Climate

1.3% 12.0%

1.043.900

1.3% 9.4%

00

GROUNDNUT R

%

0.20% 0.26% 0.31% ZAMBIA DISASTER RISK PROFILE Current Climate (1979 - 2018)

Projected Climate (2051 - 2100)

Current Climate (1979 - 201

Age > 85 80 - 84

3370

POTENTIALLY AFFECTED

CHILDREN 0-4

POTENTIALLY AFFECTED

5510

POTENTIALLY AFFECTED

520

YOUTH 5-14

ELDERLY >65

75 - 79 AGRICULTURE

5490

70 - 74 65 - 69

FOOD ENERGY SUPPLY

60 - 64 55 - 59 50 - 54 45 - 49 40 - 44 35 - 39 30 - 24 25 - 29 20 - 24 15 - 19 10 - 14 5-9 1-4 <1

7620 840

18 - 21 People/Y21 - 25

25 - 40

40 - 60 10.000

POTENTIALLY AFFECTED

FEMALES

People/Y

16.270

60 - 75 POTENTIALLY AFFECTED

PEOPLE WITH DISABILITIES

1250

2050

[Million kcal/Day per Year]

-900 - -600 -600 - -300 -300 - -100 -100 - 100 100 - 300 300 - 600 600 - 900

[Million kcal/Day per Year]

2500 2000 4500 4000 Projected Climate Conditions (2051 - 3500 2100) -3000 Fig. D23

Current Climate Conditions (1979 - 2018) - Fig. D22

1500 1

Several arable crops contribute to the food energy supply of households in Zambia. Droughts could negatively affect the food security situation via lower crop production. To estimate which part of the crop production is, on average, available for direct consumption as vegetal food in Zambia, yearly crop production of selected crops has been computed and expressed in kcal per day. Export and other uses (including feed) are subtracted during the computation. Contribution to food energy supply is expressed Current in kcal per day for the whole country.

The food energy supply is projected to be reduced across theClimate Current Projected (1979 - 2018) Climate country, especially in the central andClimate south-western provinces.

(1979 - 2018)

(2051 - 2100)

-

-

PRODUCTIVE ASSETS

-

-

HOUSING SECTOR

-

-

INFRASTRUCTURES D3 - AFFECTED (UNITS/Y)

SCHOOLS

FOOD SUPPLY CONSEQUENCES D2 - AFFECTED (UNITS/Y)

HOSPITALS

AGRICULTURAL SECTOR SERVICE SECTOR

OTHER CRITICAL INFRASTR

[Million$/Y]

When droughts negatively affect crop production, this may translate into a negative effect on average food energy supply.

To illustrate the impact of a lower crop production, the loss of production has been expressed in an equivalent number Current Projected of people that could have been fed with this lost production Climate Climate - 2018) - 2100) To convert (compared to the situation(1979 under current(2051 climate). food energy supply into number of people potentially fed, we DIRECTLY AFFECTED 565.200 637.200 (MDER for applied CHILDREN the Minimum Energy Requirement 0-4 Dietary Zambia*, 1720 kcal/cap,day ) and an assumed household waste of 10%. Below Figure illustrates the results for two periods under DIRECTLY AFFECTED the projected to emphasize projected trends (box 925.800 the 1.043.900 YOUTH climate 5-14 plot: 25% - 75%; whiskers to indicate extreme values). Our results show that less people can potentially be fed with a diet containing DIRECTLY AFFECTED the MDER, as compared to the situation under current climate, 86.800 97.900 ELDERLY >65 and that this effect is stronger in the 2nd half of the projected climate (from an average 1.5 million 3 million people).

People/Y people to People/Y It illustrates a possible negative effect on food security for the people in Zambia due to increased drought conditions under the selected projected climate. The values should be regarded as minimum values, because in reality much more people can be affected in their food security situation (more but less severe), if the conditions for crop growth worsen.

k - days / Y

(2051 - 2100)

820

4580

43

Loss [Ton/Y] 350.000

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

-0.5 -1 -1.5 -2 -2.5 -3 -3.5

AGRICULTURAL SEC

-4

PRODUCTIVE AS

-4.5

Current Projected Climate ZAMBIA Climate DISASTER RISK PROFILE | DROUGHT RESULTS

(1979 - 2018)

7

0

[Equivalent Million People]

D4 - AFFECTED (KM/Y)

-5

AAL [Mi

2050-2075 2076-2100 Fig. D24 http://www.fao.org/fileadmin/templates/ ess/documents/food_security_statistics/ MinimumDietaryEnergyRequirement_en.xls

ZAMBIA DISASTER RISK PROFILE

200

AGRICULTURE DROUGHT TOLERANT CROPS

ZAMBIA

MAIZE

Drought tolerant crops - Fig. D26 PML SENSITIVITY MAIZE

04/12/2019

16.000 1.20

280.000

1.00

210.000

Loss [Million Ton]

12.000

140.000

0.80

8000 0.60

70.000

0.40

4000

Current Projected Climate Climate (1979-2018) (2051-2100)

Loss

0

[Ton/Y] [Million tons/y]

Loss [Ton/Y]

0.20

Drought tolerant crops Fig. D25

0

0.00

Current Projected 0 20 40 Climate Climate (1979-2018) (2051-2100)

PML C2 AGRICULTURAL LOSS

120

140

160

180

200

Return Period [Years] Maize - Drought tolerant - Present

Maize - Short cycle - Present

Standard

tolerant Maize - DroughtDrought tolerant- Future

Cycle Maize - ShortShort cycle - Future

Standard

Drought tolerant

Short Cycle

PML SENSITIVITY SWEET POTATO

3

4

Drought tolerant crops - Fig. D28

0.09

16.000

0.08 0.07

Loss [Million Ton]

12.000

8000

4000

0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01

Loss [Ton/Y]

Projected Climate 8) (2051-2100)

100

Return Period [Years]

ZAMBIA

0

0.00

Current Projected Climate Climate (1979-2018) (2051-2100)

[Million tons/Y]

ZAMBIA

80

Maize - Normal - Present

Current Climate Maize - Normal - Future (1979 - 2018)

Projected Climate (2051 - 2100)

SWEET POTATO

60

Drought tolerant crops Fig. D27

2

0

20

40

60

80

100 120 Return Period [Years]

140

160

180

200

Return Period [Years] Sweet Potato - Normal - Present

Sweet Potato - Drought tolerant - Present

Sweet Potato - Normal - Future

Sweet Potato - Drought tolerant - Future

Current Climate (1979 - 2018)

Standard

Drought tolerant

Short Cycle

Projected Climate (2051 - 2100)

Standard

Drought tolerant

Short Cycle

We estimated the effect of drought-tolerant varieties on crop production for two selected crops: maize and sweet potato in Zambia. For maize we introduced a short-cycle variety to avoid planting too early in the season, and a variety that has better characteristics to tolerate periods of droughts (e.g. via more extensive root system or physiological response to drought conditions). For sweet potato, only the drought-tolerant variety was used.

ZAMBIA DISASTER RISK PROFILE | DROUGHT RESULTS 44

ZAMBIA DISASTER RISK PROFILE

In most cases, the adaptation to drought, gives these varieties an advantage in drier years, but result in lower yields in wetter years. However, the analysis to determine the overall effect with all years in a climate (dry and wet) was not possible within this project. Obviously, this overall effect is strongly influenced by the frequency of occurrence of dry/wet years. In order to reduce the occurrence of lower yields in wet years, an Early Warning System can be used in combination with these varieties: drought monitoring and seasonal outlook can be used to advise a drought-adapted variety when the probability to have droughts in the growing season is high.

A crop production threshold, that is, a level of production under which a loss can be expected, was determined for the standard variety and under current climate conditions. This threshold was used to compute losses in under projected climate conditions and for the two other crop varieties. The results show that for maize, the losses decrease in the current climate, and more substantially so in the projected climate. The two types of adaptation are not very different with respect to this calculated loss.

For sweet potato, in both climates, losses are significantly lower than for the standard variety, and more pronounced in the projected climate, due to intensified drought conditions.

https://commons.wikimedia.org/

Strong effects are visible in the Probable Maximum Loss estimates for maize: all future losses show much higher values, compared to their counterparts under current climate conditions. Remarkable are the very low losses for the two drought-adapted varieties under current climate conditions, which illustrates their advantage, compared to the standard variety, in the dry years of the current climate. However, under projected climate conditions, PML values increase substantially for these alternative varieties due to the intensification of droughts, though not as much as the increases seen in the standard variety. In the case of sweet potatoes, only the drought tolerant variety was calculated. This variety followed the same trends as for maize: reducing the PML in the current climate and rising in the projected climate, though this projected rise would be far less grave than that seen by the drought tolerant maize.

ZAMBIA DISASTER RISK PROFILE | DROUGHT RESULTS 45

ZAMBIA DISASTER RISK PROFILE

HAZARD COMBINED DROUGHT HAZARD

Reduced by a factor of more than ten Reduced by a factor of ten Reduced by half

0 - 20 20 - 40 40 - 60

No important variation

60 - 80 Probability[%]

Quadruplicates Increased by a factor of ten Increased by a factor of more than ten

Current Climate Conditions (1979 - 2018) - Fig. D29

Anomaly in Projected Climate Conditions (2051 - 2100) - Fig. D30

80 - 100

These maps show the average annual chance of experiencing a drought (%). By analysing the deficits in effective rainfall (precipitation minus potential evapotranspiration), in subsurface water (soil moisture), and in the rivers (streamflow), and investigating which deficits caused an impact in the past decades, the vulnerability to water deficits was estimated for different regions in Zambia. Then, the frequency of such meteorological or hydrological deficit under current and projected climate conditions was evaluated. With the combination of the deficit impacts and frequency, we created a drought probability map that showed the annual chance of a harmful drought. Under projected climate conditions, the probability of disastrous droughts will slightly increase in most areas in Zambia, with an estimated significant relative change the western regions. While streamflow and soil moisture indexes will decrease (see pag. 47), the drought hazard will still increase due to the projected higher temperatures and larger rainfall variability.

WCI

- WATER CROWDING INDEX

Reduced by a factor of more than ten Reduced by a factor of ten Reduced by half

0 - 10 10 - 30 30 - 40

No important variation

40 - 80

Increase by half

80 - 100

Doubles Triples

[% Population/Y]

Current Climate Conditions (1979 - 2018) - Fig. D31

Anomaly in Projected Climate Conditions (2051 - 2100) - Fig. D32

These maps show the percentage of the population per region experiencing water scarcity, based on the water available (precipitation minus actual evapotranspiration) per person per year (<1000 m3/ person/year). Water scarcity indicates that a population depends on water resources from outside of their immediate region (~25 km2). Currently, the highest percentage of population under water scarcity can be found in the Livingstone region, Copperbelt Province, and around Lusaka, where almost the entire population is not self-sufficient in water from their immediate region. Overall, average water availability changes little under projected climate conditions.

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HAZARD INDEX

SPEI Standardised Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index 0 - 20 20 - 40 40 - 60 60 - 80 80 - 100 Probability [%] of 3-months Drought

Projected Climate Conditions (2051 - 2100) Fig. D34

Current Climate Conditions (1979 - 2018) Fig. D33

These maps denote the average annual chance of a meteorological drought occurring (%). Droughts are defined as 3 months of precipitation minus evapotranspiration values considerably below normal conditions; calculated through the Standardized Precipitation – Potential evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). In the south-west of Zambia, the probability of droughts will increase the most. This is particularly important for areas dependent on rainfall for their water resources.

SSMI - Standardised Soil Moisture Index 0 - 20 20 - 40 40 - 60 60 - 80 80 - 100 Probability [%] of 3-months Drought Current Climate Conditions (1979 - 2018) Fig. D35

Projected Climate Conditions (2051 - 2100) Fig. D36

These maps denote the average annual chance of a subsurface drought occurring (%). Droughts are defined as 3 months of soil moisture conditions considerably below normal conditions; calculated through the Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSMI). It can be noted that the probability of droughts is the highest in the North-Western, Western and Southern provinces of Zambia. There is a decrease in drought probability predicted under projected climate conditions. This is particularly important for agricultural areas and natural ecosystems.

SSFI - Standardised Streamflow Index 0 - 20 20 - 40 40 - 60 60 - 80 80 - 100 Probability [%] of 3-months Drought

Current Climate Conditions (1979 - 2018) Fig. D37

Projected Climate Conditions (2051 - 2100) Fig. D38

These maps denote the average annual chance of a hydrological drought occurring (%). Droughts are defined as 3 months of stream flow levels considerably below normal conditions; calculated through the Standardized Stream Flow Index (SSFI). The probability of droughts in the upstream reaches of rivers is expected to lower. This is particularly important for areas dependent on rivers for their water resources.

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Risk Profile key messages CLIMATE The climate projections (2050-2100) considered in this risk profile (RCP 8.5) foresee a marked increase in temperature in Zambia, especially in the final part of the century (2071-2095) when it could reach over four degrees at the country scale. Estimation of precipitations are highly uncertainty and does not have a clear trend.

FLOODS The average of about 20.000 people affected per year under current climate conditions is projected to increase considerably under projected climate conditions taking into account both climate projections and the population growth, the average affected people per year would increase more than three (above 60,000 people). The southwest provinces contains the most affected provinces, in both present and projected climate conditions. The majority of affected population is under 30 years and there is a significant number of the most vulnerable categories, such as children in their school age, elderly people and women. The majority of affected people are women.

Flood events that are on average experienced with equal or greater magnitude twice per century, can affect about to 50.000 people under current climate conditions and this figure could increase up to 200.000 people under projected climate and socioeconomic conditions.

Average Annual Loss due to floods is estimated to be around 25 million USD on average under current climate conditions present, while it is projected to be over 30 million USD under projected climate. The most affected sectors are housing, service and critical infrastructures followed by agriculture. The impact of floods in Zambia has a clear spatial distribution with the majority of economic losses expected to occur in the western and southern provinces.

Though the average annual losses are of 25 million USD per year, floods with losses of at least 50 million USD are expected to occur very frequently, with a return period of about 10 years (i.e. an event with equal or greater magnitude that is on average experienced every decade). Under projected climate conditions, the frequency of high-impact floods will increase significantly, and it will be very likely (return period of about 25 years) to experience floods with losses of at least 80 million USD. DROUGHTS On average about 7.2 million people live in areas affected by drought in current climate conditions, and among them, an average of 3.2 million people per year are estimated to be directly affected. This number increases to 3.7 million under projected climate conditions and to 6.9 million if both projected climate conditions and socioeconomic evolution are considered.

More than 39% of livestock is estimated to be exposed to droughts under current climate (i.e. animals living in areas hit by droughts), equivalent to about 4 million units. Under projected climate conditions, the number of affected livestock is projected to increase to more than 54% of the total livestock population (with increases in all regions, especially in the central and southern regions).

The direct economic losses from agricultural and productive sector (hydropower) are estimated to be 75 million USD on average per year and to increase to 250 million USD under projected climate conditions.

The total Average Annual Loss for the agricultural sector (crops), for the whole country, rises greatly under projected climate conditions from 29 to 180 million USD per year, indicating that a substantial part of the annual crop production could be lost due to intensified droughts in the projected climate.

Compared to current climate conditions, losses in hydropower generation (C3) resulting from drought will increase by almost 50% under projected climate conditions (for Mulungushi, Itezhi-Tezhi, Kafue Gorge and Kariba dams).

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Policy Recommendations From 10 to 12 December 2019, at the Hotel Radisson in Lusaka, a National Workshop took place to present the updated flood and drought risk profiles. The Workshop was organized by the Disaster Management and Mitigation Unit in the Office of VicePresident (DMMU), the United Nations Regional Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR), and CIMA Research Foundation - International Centre for Environmental Monitoring (Italy).

The workshop was opened by Her Excellency Ms Olipa Phiri Mwanza Minister, Office of the Vice President. Mr. Anderson Banda, Director of Disaster Risk Management, DMMU chaired the opening, with the remarks from the representative of the United Nations Regional Office for Disaster Risk Reduction in Africa, Ms. Katarina Mouakkid Solstesova, Ms. Gift Malunga - UNFPA Country Representative, and the representative of CIMA Research Foundation, Dr. Marco Massabò.

Following working discussions over three days of activities, the workshop’s participants proposed the following National Disaster Risk Reduction Policies Recommendations: 1. The results of the risk profile highlight that on average more than 19.600 people per year are potentially affected, including more than 40% of the most vulnerable population (children and elderly). Zambia needs to develop a land use planning policy that regulates the identification of safe zones for critical infrastructure such as schools and hospitals. This would reduce the exposure of two traditionally vulnerable groups: children and the ill and, as an added benefit, these could also be used as hubs for safety and coordination during flood events. Using the results provided in the risk profiles, the hotspot areas can be identified, more local risk assessments should be carried out in high-risk areas. The local risk assessment should inform the new land use planning policy.

2. Land use planning policies should emphasize that no major housing or infrastructure developments be built in flood-prone areas, as well as in areas predicted to see major flooding in the future. This measure alone, however, would likely be insufficient as many people currently ignore existing government recommendations and live in catchment areas. A mechanism to ensure the effective implementation of land use policies, one that guarantees the resettlement of families elsewhere, should be examined.

3. The government should adapt its building codes according to the evolution of flood risk that is predicted in the projected climate. This would reduce vulnerabilities of buildings and hence reduce the damages of floods to infrastructures. Additionally, the government could use the risk profiles to prioritize the areas of enforcement for current building codes if it lacks the resources for wide-scale implementation at the country level.

4. It is recommended that a flood and drought insurance mechanism be put in place, using data from the risk profiles as a starting point. Zambia is already moving in this direction with the support of Africa Risk Capacity. Future discussions should include the adoption of a policy that determines where the line is drawn between an individual and government insurance responsibility.

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5. The government should ensure the existence of emergency and recovery plans for floods and droughts, from the national to the ward level, taking into consideration the areas that are most disaster-prone as identified in the risk profile.

6. The risk profile shows droughts to have an important impact on livestock and the livelihood of pastoral communities (4 million livestock units per year). It is recommended that the government promote improved livestock breeds and raising techniques that would help reduce these impacts. It is also recommended that the government regulate grazing areas to better manage them.

7. Persistent droughts have been depleting groundwater resources in Zambia. In many regions, boreholes are already drying up, with far-reaching impacts on livestock. It is proposed that the dams used to produce energy be optimized, turning them into livestock rotary points: a place where all livestock from a determined area could use for drinking water.

8. The risk profile indicates that hydropower losses will increase in the south of the country (Kariba dam) and decrease in the other hydropower stations. As suggested by the workshop participants, it is proposed that the number of dams be increased in areas where productivity is set to rise in the projected future.

9. Compared to current climate conditions, losses in hydropower generation are predicted to increase by almost 50% under projected climate conditions. To move away from the country’s dependence on hydroelectricity, it is proposed that the government should look to diversify its energy sources. Examples of sources discussed included solar, biomass and wind power.

10. It is recommended that the government invest in using drought-resilient crops and in reducing its dependence on maize. Subsidies could be used to incentivize farmers to transition. Certain regions less sensitive to drought, once again through the use of subsidies, could be encouraged to grow more sensitive and lucrative cash crops, while others could grow more resistant subsistence crops. A consensus was established that the government should increase its investments in climate-smart techniques in the agricultural sector overall.

11. Many concerns have been raised about the need to review the country’s water policies. For example, there is an urgent need to better regulate boreholes so that these stop drying up. The risk profiles make one trend obvious: the north-east will continue to become more wet and the south-west will continue to become drier. Water transfer infrastructure at the national scale could be discussed. Generally, more cooperation should take place at the national level around water resources and there should be an increased focus on recharge areas.

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wikipedia.org

ZAMBIA DISASTER RISK PROFILE

ZAMBIA DISASTER RISK PROFILE

Glossary AFFECTED PEOPLE and GDP Affected people are the ones that may experience short-term or long-term consequences to their lives, livelihoods or health and in the economic, physical, social, cultural and environmental assets. In the case of this report “affected people from Floods” are the people living in areas experiencing a flood intensity (i.e. a flood water level) above a certain threshold. Analogously, in this report “affected people from Droughts” are the people living in areas experiencing a drought intensity (i.e. a SPEI value) below a certain threshold. The GDP affected has been methodologically defined using the same thresholds both for floods and droughts.

AVERAGE ANNUAL LOSS (AAL) Is the expected loss per year, averaged over many years. While there may actually be little or no loss over a short period of time, AAL also accounts for much larger losses that occur less frequently. As such, AAL represents the funds which are required annually in order to cumulatively cover the average disaster loss over time.

CLIMATE MODEL* A numerical representation of the climate system based on the physical, chemical and biological properties of its components, their interactions and feedback processes, and accounting for some of its known properties. Climate models are applied as a research tool to study and simulate the climate, and for operational purposes, including monthly, seasonal, and interannual climate predictions.

DISASTER RISK* The potential loss of life, injury, or destroyed, or damaged assets which could occur to a system, society, or a community in a specific period of time, determined probabilistically as a function of hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and capacity.

DROUGHT Droughts, defined as unusual and temporary deficits in water supply, are a persistent hazard, potentially impacting human and environment systems. Droughts, which can occur everywhere, should not be confused with aridity, a permanent climate condition. In this profile, drought hazard is represented by a combination of various standardized indices, covering a range of drought types (meteorological, subsurface and surface (hydrological) droughts). In this disaster risk profile, droughts are analysed in terms of hazard, exposed population, GDP and livestock. Drought induced losses are explicitly estimated for crop production and hydropower generation, by linking hazard, exposure and vulnerability (H x E x V) STANDARDIZED DROUGHT INDICES Standardized drought indices represent the ‘abnormality’ of certain water deficits, assessed by analysing the meteorological, sub-surface or surface water balances. Using these indices, drought can be defined as at least three consecutive months with standardised index values below a certain drought threshold, indicating conditions that are significantly dryer than normal for a certain region, given the reference period 1979-2018. On the drought indices maps, the drought probability is calculated using a varying drought threshold [coincidencing with the 5%-25% lowest water availabilities ever recorded]: the dryer the area, the less extreme the water deficit needs to be in order to be considered ‘a drought’.

*UNDRR terminology on Disaster Risk Reduction: https://www.unisdr.org/we/inform/publications/7817 ZAMBIA DISASTER RISK PROFILE | GLOSSARY 52

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FLOOD* Flood hazard in the risk assessment includes river (fluvial) flooding and flash flooding. This risk profile document considers mainly fluvial flooding and flash floods in the main urban centres. Fluvial flooding is estimated at a resolution of 90 m using global meteorological datasets, a global hydrological model, a global flood-routing model, and an inundation downscaling routine. Flash flooding is estimated by deriving susceptibility indicators based on topographic and land use maps. Flood loss curves are developed to define the potential damage to the various assets based on the modelled inundation depth at each specific location.

LOSS DUE TO DROUGHT (CROPS) Economic losses from selected crops result from multiplying gross production in physical terms by output prices at farm gate. Losses in working days have been estimated as function of crop-specific labour requirements for the cultivation of selected crops. Annual losses have been computed at Admin 1 level as the difference relative to a threshold, when an annual value is below this threshold. The threshold equals the 20% lowest value from the period 1951-2000 and has also been applied for the projected climate. Losses at national level have been estimated as the sum of all Admin 1 losses.

PROBABLE MAXIMUM LOSS (PML) describes the loss which could be expected corresponding to a given likelihood. It is expressed in terms of annual probability of exceedance or its reciprocal, the return period. Typically, PML is relevant to define the size of reserves which, insurance companies or a government should have available to manage losses.

RESIDUAL RISK* The disaster risk that remains in unmanaged form, even when effective disaster risk reduction measures are in place, and for which emergency response and recovery capacities must be maintained.

RESILIENCE* The ability of a system, community or society exposed to hazards to resist, absorb, accommodate, adapt to, transform, and recover from the effects of a hazard in a timely and efficient manner, including through the preservation and restoration of its essential basic structures and functions through risk management.

RETURN PERIOD* Average frequency with which a particular event is expected to occur. It is usually expressed in years, such as 1 in X number of years. This does not mean that an event will occur once every X numbers of years, but is another way of expressing the exceedance probability: a 1 in 200 years event has 0.5% chance to occur or be exceeded every year.

RISK* The combination of the probability of an event and its negative consequences. While in popular usage the emphasis is usually placed on the concept of chance or possibility, in technical terms the emphasis is on consequences, calculated in terms of “potential losses” for some particular cause, place, and period. It can be noted that people do not necessarily share the same perception of the significance and underlying causes of different risks.

RISK TRANSFER* The process of formally or informally shifting the financial consequences of particular risks from one party to another, whereby a household, community, enterprise, or State authority will obtain resources from the other party after a disaster occurs, in exchange for ongoing or compensatory social or financial benefits provided to that other party.

*UNDRR terminology on Disaster Risk Reduction: https://www.unisdr.org/we/inform/publications/7817 ZAMBIA DISASTER RISK PROFILE | GLOSSARY 53

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Notes

ZAMBIA DISASTER RISK PROFILE | NOTES 54

www.preventionweb.net / resilient-africa www.undrr.org RISK PROFILES ARE AVAILABLE AT: riskprofilesundrr.org

This publication has been produced with the assistance of the European Union.

The contents of this publication are the sole responsibility of CIMA Research Foundation and can in no way be taken to reflect the views of the European Union.