Beverages Global Market Update 2011
We would like you to take away from this presentation... Orange Juice is still the main flavor in the Juice Category Juice Drinks growing faster Other beverages competing in the share of throat Orange Juice and solids facing a decrease in volumes on the traditional markets
40 countries represent 84% of the Global RTD Juice Market and 86% of Global Orange Juice Consumption Consumer understanding is a must to revamp the Orange Juice market Tracking market information is also a must Opportunities for growth in the developing countries 2
Category Definition Packed Liquid Food
3
100% Juice
Nectars (>25% juice)
Juice Drinks (up to 24% juice)
Tea based drinks
Coffee based drinks
Sports & Energy Drinks
Water
Carbonated Soft Drinks
These sub-categories are also grouped as “JNSD”
Total Packed Liquid Food Globally E2010 Orange Juice contributes with 1.5% of the Total Consumption (Juice Drinks RTD with 0.7% and Juices and Nectars with 0.8%) 1.611 Bio litres (E2010) Wine
Hot Coffee
Hot Tea
1.7% 9.5%
Beer
20.9% 35%
10.8% Juices and Nectars
29%
Juice Drinks RTD
Flavoured Milk 0.9% Dairy Based Beverages
2.4% 2.4%
3.9% 7.2% 12.3%
Carbonated Soft Drinks
Others Others: Spirits, Tea and Coffee Based Drinks, Sports & Energy Drinks, FFSD Concentrate and Powder
15.3%
12.7%
Water White Milk
4
Source: Compass 2010 Products & Packages and Industry Estimated Reported Countries only. * only commercially traded volumes
Total Packed Liquid Food - Volume Trends Growth over the last 6 years was 3,5% CAGR 04 x 10
3.6%
1 302 347
2004
5
CAGR 04 x 07
CAGR 07 x 10
4.7%
2.6%
1 368 421
2005
1 431 167
2006
1 492 796
2007
1 529 564
2008
1 563 432
2009
Source: Compass 2010 Products & Packages and Industry Estimated Reported Countries only. * only commercially traded volumes
1 611 700
E2010
Packed Liquid Food - Volume Trends by Subcategory Juice Drinks, Water and Dairy Based Beverages driving the growth
1.611 Bio litres (E2010)
1 310 3.5% 6.8% 8.9% 20.6%
1 368 3.3%
6.6% 10.0%
21.0%
11.2%
11.0%
13.3%
13.3%
13.9%
13.5%
1 431 3.4%
6.7% 9.8%
21.1%
1 492 3.6%
6.8% 9.6%
21.0%
1 529 3.6%
6.9%
1 563 3.7%
7.0%
9.5%
9.5%
21.1%
21.0%
CAGR 04x10 1 611 3.9%
7.2%
Dairy Based Beverages
5.4%
9.5%
Others
4.5 %
Hot Coffee
4.8%
Hot Tea
3.8%
Wine
1.2%
Beer
3.0%
Water
6.1%
Carbonated Soft Drinks
1.6%
Juice Drinks RTD
8.6%
Juice and Nectar
1.9%
Flavoured Milk
4.1%
White Milk
1.3%
20.9% 1.7%
11.1% 13.8%
10.8%
11.3%
11.2%
10.9%
14.3%
14.7%
15.0%
15.3%
12.3%
13.2%
13.0%
12.8%
12.5%
2.2% 2.5%
2.3% 2.4%
2.4%
1.8% 2.6%
1.9% 2.6%
2.0% 2.5%
2.1% 2.5%
14.6%
14.1%
13.7%
13.2%
13.0%
12.9%
12.7%
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
E2010
2.4% 0.9%
Others: Spirits, Tea and Coffee Based Drinks, Sports & Energy Drinks, FFSD Concentrate and Powder
6
Source: Compass 2010 Products & Packages and Industry Estimated Reported Countries only. * only commercially traded volumes
Top Flavors Top 5 Soft Drinks
Bottled Water
Carbonated Soft Drinks
Energy & Sports Drinks
Fruit/Vegetable JNSD
Flavor for dairy drinks
RTD tea/coffee
Orange
Lemon
Cola
Orange
Orange
Milk
Green Tea
Apple
Lime
Lemon
Lemon
Apple
Strawberry
Coffee
Lemon
Orange
Orange
Lime
Mango
Chocolate
Tea
Mango
Apple
Lime
Citrus
Pineapple
Yogurt
Milk
Strawberry
Strawberry
Apple
Berry
Peach
Vanilla
Lemon
Soft Drinks
Bottle Water
Carbonated Soft Drinks
Energy & Sports Drinks
Fruit/Vegetable JNSD
Flavor for dairy drinks
RTD tea/coffee
Pomegranate
Mineral
Orange
Pomegranate
Pomegranate
Strawberry
Black Tea
Fastest growing
Pineapple Mango
7
Source: Future flavors trends soft drinks 2009 - Euromonitor
Orange & Apple The most desired fruits Juice and Nectars - Flavors split e2010 volume mio liters
1.0 Others 0.8 Cranberry Mango Pineapple
Peach
0.6
Grape
Mixed Fruits
0.4
Apple
13.4%
36.5%
0.2
0.0
Orange
Fruit Flavor
8 Source: Euromonitor e2010- % of 40 selected countries representing 84% of world consumption
Juice and Nectars Product Launches 2009 Flavor component analysis
6% 7%
22%
7%
7% 7% 19% 8% 10%
8%
9 Source: Mintel GNPD
Deep dive in Global Juices Market e2010
Packed Juice and Others – Volume Trends Orange decreases in volume, other flavors and other beverages are growing faster Volumes in MM LITERS CAGR 04 x 10
5.0%
123 270 12 017 10 657 9 146
12
CAGR 04 x 10
CAGR 07 x 10
5.5%
4.5%
128 219 12 362 10 531 9 872
135 930
144 708 12 728
12 620
10 000
10 326
12 094
10 961 19 934
22 151
150 457 12 412 9 752 12 748 23 945
165 122
11 909
11 709 10 384
9 744
13 092
12 818 25 814 10 544
27 976 11 427
16 801
18 143
7 200
7 776
16 783
16 240
14 355
13 842
11 234
12 724
14 011
19 070
20 612
22 671
25 341
27 133
29 594
32 317
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
E2010
8 543 16 496 14 074
9 048
9 780
156 192
CAGR 04x10
17 162
17 634
14 119
14 152
15 595
16 231
18 324
19 268
14 473
14 841
16 235
16 939
Source: Compass e2010 Products & Packages and Industry Estimated Reported Countries only. * only commercially traded volumes
Juice 100% Non-Orange
-0.4%
Juice 100% Orange
-0.4%
Nectar Non-Orange
6.2%
Nectar Orange
5.0%
Juice Drinks RTD Non-Orange
8.9%
Juice Drinks RTD Orange
8.0%
FFSD Powder FFSD Concentrate
2.3 % 0.6%
Sports & Energy Drinks
7.1%
Coffee Based Drinks
1.6%
Tea Based Drinks
9.2%
Packed Juices in Context – Volume Trends Ready and Non-Ready to Drink Volumes in MM LITERS
CAGR 04 x 10
3.8% CAGR 04 x 07
CAGR 07 x 10
3.8%
3.9%
CAGR 04x10 111,767
95,361 89,246 16,783
14,355
24,001
13
91,081 16,240
13,842
25,919
16,496
14,074
28,477
99,779 17,162
14,119
31,199
103,035 17,634
14,152
33,726
106,318
Powder
2.3 %
19,268 18,324
14,473
36,358
Concentrate
0.6 %
Juice Drinks (up to 24% Juice)
4.9%
14,841
39,403
11,432
12,187
13,367
14,571
15,359
15,510
16,163
22,674
22,892
22,946
22,728
22,164
21,652
22,093
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Source: Compass e2010 Products & Packages and Industry Estimated Reported Countries only. * only commercially traded volumes
Nectars (25-99% Juice)
Juice (100% Juice)
5.9%
--0.4%
RTD Juices in Context – Volume Trends 100% Juice, Nectar and Juice Drink Distribution Ambient x Chilled Volumes in MM LITERS
CAGR 03 x 09
5.0% CAGR 03 x 06
CAGR 06 x 09
5.6%
4.3% CAGR 04x10 77,658
64,790 58,107 11,850
14
60,999
68,498 11,614
71,249 11,633
73,521 11,910 11,648
11,713 11,980
46,257
49,019
2004
2005
53,077
2006
56,884
59,615
61,873
2007
2008
2009
Source: Compass e2010 Products & Packages and Industry Estimated Reported Countries only. * only commercially traded volumes
65,748
E2010
Chilled
0.1 %
Ambient
6.0%
Juice Category 40 markets with largest volume contribution
Methodology Deep analysis of 40 main consumer markets $ figures = 2010 Disposable Income per Capita 100% Juice
16
Nectars
Juice Drinks
AUSTRALIA
$55,643
CHILE
$11,834
ARGENTINA
$9,067
AUSTRIA
$44,728
ITALY
$33,959
BRAZIL
$10,810
BELGIUM
$43,095
RUSSIA
$10,437
CHINA
$4,443
CANADA
$46,354
SOUTH AFRICA
$7,288
COLOMBIA
$6,202
DENMARK
$56,090
UKRAINE
$3,012
FINLAND
$44,622
FRANCE
$41,086
INDIA
$1,359
GERMANY
$40,494
INDONESIA
$3,040
GREECE
$27,000
ISRAEL
$28,991
IRELAND
$45,751
MEXICO
$9,543
JAPAN
$42,872
MORROCO
$2,848
NETHERLANDS
$47,650
PHILIPPINES
$2,009
NEW ZEALAND
$32,789
POLAND
$12,278
NORWAY
$85,322
ROMANIA
$7,564
SOUTH KOREA
$20,748
SAUDI ARABIA
$16,883
SPAIN
$30,640
TAIWAN
$18,619
SWEDEN
$49,031
TURKEY
$10,119
SWITZERLAND
$67,285
UK
$36,236
USA
$47,457
Methodology
Juices Ready to Drink – World 78 Bio liters
84%
Juices Ready to Drink – 40 Selected Countries 65 Bio liters 17
Juices Ready to Drink - Volume 40 Selected Countries, 2004-2010 Volumes in MM LITERS CAGR 04 x 10
2.9% CAGR 04 x 07
CAGR 07 x 10
2.9%
2.9% 63,146
54,770
2004
18
56,397
2005
58,323
2006
59,730
59,939
2007
2008
Source: Compass e2010 Products & Packages and Industry Estimated Reported Countries only. * only commercially traded volumes
2009
65,129
E2010
Subcategories of Juice RTD Volume Evolution 40 Selected Countries, 2004-2010 Volumes in MM LITERS CAGR 04 x 10
2.9% CAGR 04 x 07
CAGR 07 x 10
2.9%
2.9% CAGR (%) 63,146
54,770
59,939
25,824
27,009
27,519
58,323
2004-07 2007-10 2004-10
31,230
33,698 JUICE DRINKS
23,744
24,873
9,184
9,729
10,706
11,239
11,673
11,498
11,870
21,842
21,795
21,793
21,482
20,747
20,419
19,561
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
E2010
3.0%
3.3%
2.4%
0.3%
5.4%
Growth vs previous year
19
56,397
59,730
65,129
3.1%
Source: Compass 2010 Products & Packages and Industry Estimated Reported Countries only. * only commercially traded volumes
NECTARS
100% JUICES
4.4%
7.7%
6.0%
7.0%
1.8%
4.4%
-0.6%
-3.1%
-1.8%
World Regions – RTD Juices -
Volume Evolution
Asia and Latin America driving the growth 40 Selected Countries, 2004-2010 Volumes in MM LITERS CAGR 04 x 10
2.9%
1,363 361 733
4,512
18,464
18,693
20
CAGR 04 x 07
CAGR 07 x 10
2.9%
2.9%
1,415 408 727
4,755
18,539
19,213
1,515 517 739
1,587 463 732
1,659 446 744
5,243
5,590
5,758
17,895
20,387
17,384
20,838
16,548
21,134
1,787 439 758
6,491
17,211
20,447
1,950 458 770
CAGR (%)
7,084
2004-07 2007-10 2004-10
16,854
20,828
4,755
5,243
5,590
5,758
6,491
7,084
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
E2010
0.3%
5.4%
3.1%
3.0%
3.3%
2.4%
5.2%
7.1%
6.2%
Africa
8.6%
-0.4%
4.0%
Oceania
-0.1%
1.7%
0.8%
Latin America
7.4%
8.2%
7.8%
Asia
7.6%
9.8%
8.7%
3.7%
0.0%
1.8%
-2.0%
-1.5%
-1.5%
Europe
4,512
Growth vs previous year
Middle East
Source: Compass 2009 Products & Packages and Industry Estimated Reported Countries only. * only commercially traded volumes
North America
Main Ready to Drink Juice Markets USA is the biggest, but China, Turkey and Indonesia have shown the biggest growth
Juices – TOP 20 Markets, 2010 Volumes in MM LITERS
CAGR 04x10 18.4%
-1.1%
4.9%
4.4%
5.2%
-1.0%
3.1%
1.4%
1.4%
8.4%
3.2%
2.1%
7.5%
-0.9%
0.7%
11.0%
-3.2%
13.9%
21
60 4
61 5
ia U kr ai ne
75 7
Ko re a
In do ne s
83 3
Tu rk ey
So ut h
85 0
91 7
It al y et he rl an ds
Source: Compass 2010 Products & Packages and Industry Estimated Reported Countries only. * only commercially traded volumes
N
Ar ab ia
1, 07 7
1, 39 9
Sp ai n
Sa ud i
1, 62 2
1, 71 3
Br az il Po la nd
2, 00 9
C an ad a
2, 22 5
U K
2, 49 6
Fr an ce
2, 77 7
Ja pa n
3, 03 2
R us sia
3, 41 6
In di a
o M ex ic
er m an y
G
Ch in a
U SA
3, 54 4
4, 50 2
10 ,8 82
14 ,8 46
-1.9%
6.7%
What do we mean by „Soft Drinks‟?
Orange Juice Ready to 100% Juice Drink
Category definition
40 markets with largest volume These sub-categories are also grouped as Fruit / Flavoured Still Drinks contribution “JNSD” Tea based drinks
Nectars (>25% juice)
Coffee based drinks
Sports & Energy Drinks
Water
Carbonated Soft Drinks
22
100% Juice - Volume Trends Apple flavor decreasing 40 Selected Countries, 2004-2010 Volumes in MM LITERS
CAGR 04 x 10
-1.8% CAGR 04 x 07
CAGR 07 x 10
-0.6%
-3.1% CAGR 04x10
21,843
21,795
21,793
21,482
4,695
4,803
4,900
784 613 1,502
787 616 1,580
767 679 1,662
4,140
4,056
4,033
4,546
10,257
2004
23
10,062
2005
9,849
2006
20,747
20,419
4,639
4,412
718 676 1,766
704 663 1,755
686 694 1,594
3,907
3,820
3,750
9,515
2007
9,166
2008
9,283
2009
19,561
Other Flavours
-0.4%
Grape
-2.7%
Tomato
4.5%
Mixed fruits
0.9 %
Apple
-6.0 %
Orange
-1.7%
4,425 666 798 1,582 2,850
9,239
E2010
Source: Compass e2010 Products & Packages and Industry Estimated Reported Countries only. * only commercially traded volumes
Nectars - Volume Trends Flavors different than Orange have the highest increase 40 Selected Countries, 2004-2010 Volumes in MM LITERS CAGR 04 x 10
4.4% CAGR 04 x 07
CAGR 07 x 10
3.4%
0.9% 11,239
11,673
11,498
10,706 9,729 9,184 4,649 3,897
707
24
5,106
4,856
Other Flavours
5.1%
Mango
3.9%
Peach
7.1 %
5,261
4,181
519 449
4,869
CAGR 04x10
11,870
450 772
563 939
1,015
1,029
1,068
1,209
1,331
1,390
1,462
1,377
851
1,084
1,115 1,370
1,559
1,606
1,598
1,613
1,379
1,237
1,809
1,841
1,920
1,932
2,009
1,983
2,220
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
E2010
Source: Compass e2010 Products & Packages and Industry Estimated Reported Countries only. * only commercially traded volumes
Apple
4.1%
Mixed fruits
1.8%
Orange
3.5%
Juice Drink RTD - Volume Trends Orange increase less than Other Flavors and Mixed Fruits Blends 40 Selected Countries, 2004-2010 Volumes in MM LITERS CAGR 04 x 10
12.4% CAGR 04 x 07
CAGR 07 x 10
4.4%
7.7% 33,698
CAGR 04x10
31,230
23,744 8,601
8,982
25,824
9,146
9,398
11,836
Other Flavours
5.5%
9,610
Grape
8.1%
2,056 1,708 1,583
1,624
2,217
2,291 2,947
1,318 1,949 2,599
2,771
2,894
2,258
2,456
2,711
2,957
7,154
7,568
7,687
7,961
2004
2005
2006
2007
2,434
27,519 11,337
1,478 2,031
1,291 2,006
25
24,873
27,009
3,195
7,852
2008
2,281 3,146 3,790
2,550
Apple
3,202 4,295
Mango 4.7%
Mixed fruits 8,968
11.3 %
9,759
Orange 2009
4.1%
E2010
Source: Compass e2010 Products & Packages and Industry Estimated Reported Countries only. * only commercially traded volumes
5.3%
Global Orange Juice Consumption Volume Trends by Subcategories 40 Selected Countries, 2004-2010 Volumes in MM LITERS
CAGR 04 x 10
1.7%
19,219
CAGR 04 x 07
CAGR 07 x 10
0.3%
3.0%
19,471
19,455
19,407
19,028
20,233
21,219
CAGR (%) 2004-10
7,154
1,809
7,568
7,687
1,841
7,961
1,920
7,852
1,932
2,009
8,968
1,983
Juice Drinks
9,759
Nectar
2,220
100% Juice
10,257
10,062
9,849
9,515
9,166
9,283
9,239
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
E2010
Growth vs previous year
1.3%
-0.1%
-0.2%
-2.0%
6.3%
4.9%
CONSUMPTION OF FCOJ 66 BRIX EQUIVALENT – MM TONS 2,250
26
2,216
2,174
2,115
2,051
2,090
2,108
-1.5%
-1.9%
-2.7%
-3.0%
1.9%
0.9%
OBS: Volumes of FCOJ 66 Brix Equivalent include Mixed Fruits and other blends with orange juice content and do not include Orange Syrup used in Carbonated Soft Drinks. Source: Compass 2010 Products & Packages and Industry Estimated Reported Countries only. * only commercially traded volumes
5.3%
3.5%
-1.7%
Main Orange Juice Markets
TOP 20 Markets, 2010 Volumes in MMLITROS
5,341
809 4,235
FCOJ 66 Brix Equivalent
820
784
75
765
121
753
84
640
48
26
41
39
40
27
19
8
440
371
325
283
280
238
236
210
U K
23 29
155
144
It al y
31
Br az il M ex ic o Ja pa Ca n na da Ru ss ia S Sa pa ud i iA n ra bi a Po So l ut and h Ko r Au ea So stra lia ut h Af ri ca
1,000
G
U SA
Ch in a er m an y Fr an ce
1,230 1,155
45
In di In do a ne s Be ia lg iu m
74 198 175 137
CAGR 04x10 -4.2%
13.5%
-2.1%
2.5%
0.9%
2.4%
5.7%
-4.9%
1.0%
10.8%
2.4%
8.9%
1.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.4%
15.6%
21.3%
OBS: Volumes of FCOJ 66 Brix Equivalent include Mixed Fruits and other blends with orange juice content and do not include Orange Syrup used in Carbonated Soft Drinks.
27
Source: Compass 2010 Products & Packages and Industry Estimated Reported Countries only. * only commercially traded volumes
0.4%
-2.4%
Consumption of FCOJ 66 Brix Equivalent on Top 40 Markets Total Consumption – MM Tons
28
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
E2010
2,414
2,392
2,361
2,309
2,245
2,275
2,288
1
USA
1,029
985
924
882
826
851
809
2
GERMANY
231
211
213
201
199
193
198
3
FRANCE
147
153
161
165
166
171
175
4
UNITED KINGDOM
136
136
138
137
140
136
137
5
CANADA
117
133
126
120
114
117
121
6
JAPAN
97
95
95
92
76
74
75
7
RUSSIA
59
63
74
79
78
73
84
8
CHINA
42
48
56
60
68
74
88
9
SPAIN
45
47
46
46
47
47
48
10
BRAZIL
37
40
41
37
38
41
45
11
MEXICO
29
29
30
32
30
32
31
12
AUSTRALIA
40
40
40
40
39
40
40
13
SOUTH KOREA
43
42
40
39
39
38
39
14
POLAND
41
40
38
36
37
39
41
15
NETHERLANDS
37
35
35
32
32
32
32
16
ITALY
33
33
31
30
29
29
29
17
SOUTH AFRICA
23
25
26
28
27
27
27
18
SAUDI ARABIA
16
17
19
21
22
23
26
19
SWEDEN
24
24
25
25
24
24
24
20
BELGIUM
22
22
24
23
23
23
23
OBS: Volumes of FCOJ 66 Brix Equivalent include Mixed Fruits and other blends with orange juice content and do not include Orange Syrup used in Carbonated Soft Drinks.
Consumption of FCOJ 66 Brix Equivalent on Top 40 Markets Total Consumption – MM Tons
29
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
E2010
2,414
2,392
2,361
2,309
2,245
2,275
2,288
21
INDIA
17
16
16
17
18
19
19
22
NORWAY
13
14
15
15
17
17
17
23
AUSTRIA
18
18
17
17
17
17
17
24
SWITZERLAND
14
14
14
14
14
14
14
25
ARGENTINA
5
5
6
9
11
13
17
26
IRELAND
13
14
14
14
14
12
12
27
UKRAINE
8
11
12
14
15
11
10
28
GREECE
11
12
12
11
11
11
10
29
DENMARK
12
12
12
11
11
11
10
30
CHILE
6
7
8
9
11
11
11
31
FINLAND
13
14
13
11
10
11
10
32
NEW ZEALAND
6
6
7
7
7
7
7
33
ROMANIA
3
4
5
6
6
5
4
34
INDONESIA
3
3
3
4
4
6
8
35
TAIWAN
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
36
TURKEY
4
5
7
7
7
7
7
37
ISRAEL
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
38
PHILIPPINES
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
39
COLOMBIA
3
3
3
3
4
3
3
40
MORROCO
1
2
2
3
4
4
6
OBS: Volumes of FCOJ 66 Brix Equivalent include Mixed Fruits and other blends with orange juice content and do not include Orange Syrup used in Carbonated Soft Drinks.
Main Orange Juice Markets
OJ Consumption in Liters Converted into FCOJ 66 BRIX Equivalent – Total MM Tons
CAGR 04x10 -2,5%
3.0%
0.1%
0.5%
13.2%
6.0%
-4.1%
1.0%
3.2%
0.2%
0.1%
-1.8%
1.4%
-2.2%
2.6%
8.8%
0.6%
1.6%
30
Source: Compass e2010 Products & Packages and Industry Estimated Reported Countries only. * only commercially traded volumes
8 si a
19
In do ne
In di a
23
26 bi a
Be lg iu m
27 ca Af ri
Sa u
di Ar a
29 ly It a
So ut h
31 ex ic o
39 Ko re a
h
M
40 ia tr al
So ut
41 Po la nd
Au s
45 il Br as
48
75 Ja pa n
Sp ai n
84 ia Ru ss
na Ch i
Ca na da
K U
ce Fr an
y m an
G er
U SA
88
12 1
13 7
17 5
19 8
80 9
-3.9%
TOP 20 Markets, 2010 17.6%
Main Orange Juice Markets - % 10 Selected Countries, 2010 5 341
4 235
1 000
1 230
1 155
765
820
561
26.8%
30.9%
2.6%
21.8%
13.9%
16.7%
19.3%
11.4%
42.7%
10.5%
90.7%
13.8%
40 70.7%
69.1%
67.9%
79.9% 85.3%
60
64.4%
72.7%
69.3% 43.5%
20
100% Juice
Russia
Mexico
Brazil
Japan
France
Germany
4.4% UK
China
USA
Nectars
27.4%
20.1% 10.3%
4.7% 4.6%
Juice Drinks
31
640
4.7%
80
0
753
Canada
100%
North America
North America USA
32
Canadรก
Orange Juice Consumption
North America, 2004-2010 Volumes in MM LITERS – Selected Countries
Volume Trends by Subcategories CAGR 04 x 10
-3.6%
7,633
CAGR 04 x 07
CAGR 07 x 10
-5.7%
-1.4%
7,450
CAGR (%)
6,909 6,402
6,400
2,207
2,168 1,697
137
167 130
5,289
5,115
2004
2005
Growth vs previous year
-2.4%
6,132 2004-10
5,687
1,967
1,899 1,276
1,776
Juice Drinks
-3.6%
Nectar
-2.5%
Juice 100%
-3.6%
124
4,813
4,579
4,341
4,430
4,238
2006
2007
2008
2009
E2010
-7.3%
-7.4%
-11.1%
12.6%
-4.2%
CONSUMPTION OF FCOJ 66 BRIX EQUIVALENT – MM TONS 1,147 33
1,118 -3%
1,050 -6%
1,002 -5%
939 -6%
OBS: Volumes of FCOJ 66 Brix Equivalent include Mixed Fruits and other blends with orange juice content and do not include Orange Syrup used in Carbonated Soft Drinks.
968 3%
930 -4%
Source: Compass 2010 Products & Packages and Industry Estimated Reported Countries only. * only commercially traded volumes
United States 2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
OJ liters
Mio Liters
6,922
6,633
6,151
5,679
5,012
5,673
5,341
FCOJ 66 Brix Equivalent
MM Tons
1,029
985
924
882
826
851
809
Population: National Estimates at January 1st
'000
292,892
295,561
298,363
301,290
304,060
306,600
308,862
GDP per capita
US$
$40,519
$42,761
$44,908
$46,725
$47,495
$46,504
$47,457
Unemployment Rate
%
5.5%
5.1%
4.6%
4.6%
5.8%
9.3%
9.6%
Total Disposable Income
US$ Billion
$8,561,900
$8,944,300
$9,435,621
$9,932,805
Per Capita Annual Disposable Income
US$
$29,232
$30,262
$31,625
$32,968
$33,584
$32,915
$33,904
Inflation
%
2.7%
3.4%
3.2%
2.9%
3.8%
-0.3%
1.6%
$10,211,625 $10,091,869 $10.471.546
OBS: Volumes of FCOJ 66 Brix Equivalent include Mixed Fruits and other blends with orange juice content and do not include Orange Syrup used in Carbonated Soft Drinks.
Source: indexmundi / European Central Bank
34
Source: Compass 2010 Products & Packages and Industry Estimated Reported Countries only. * only commercially traded volumes
Orange Juice in The United States
Volumes in MM LITERS
Americans mainly drink 100% Juice, but decrease consumption CAGR 04 x 10
-4.2% 6,922
CAGR 04 x 07
CAGR 07x 10
-6.4%
-2.0%
6,633 6,151 2,129
5,673
5,679 2,071
5,012
1,876 1,612
1,774 1,193
CAGR (%)
5,341
1,650
Juice Drinks Juice 100%
4,793
2004 Growth vs previous year
4,561
2005 -4.2%
4,275
4,068
2006
2007
-7.3%
-7.7%
3,819
3,899
3,691
2008
2009
E2010
-11.8%
13.2%
2004-10
-4.3%
-4.2%
-5.9%
CONSUMPTION OF FCOJ 66 BRIX EQUIVALENT – MM TONS 1029
35
985 -4%
924 -6%
882 -5%
826 -6%
OBS: Volumes of FCOJ 66 Brix Equivalent include Mixed Fruits and other blends with orange juice content and do not include Orange Syrup used in Carbonated Soft Drinks.
851 3%
807 -5%
Source: Compass e2010 Products & Packages and Industry Estimated Reported Countries only. * only commercially traded volumes
Europe Europe
36
Germany
Spain
UK
Romania
France
Sweden
Italy
Belgium
Turkey
Norway
Russia
Austria
Denmark
Switzerland
Poland
Ireland
Netherlands
Ukraine
Finland
Greece
Source: Compass e2010 Products & Packages and Industry Estimated Reported Countries only. * only commercially traded volumes
Orange Juice Consumption
Europe, 2004-2010 Volumes in MM LITERS - Selected Countries
Volume Trends by Subcategories CAGR 04 x 10
1.8%
5,818 1,193
CAGR 04 x 10
CAGR 067x 10
3.7%
0.0%
5,779 1,212
5,942 1,263
5,929 1,296
5,955 1,325
5,953 1,320
6,167 CAGR (%)
1,344
2004-10 968
929
976
1,024
1,045
1,064
1,174
3,656
3,638
3,703
3,609
3,585
3,569
3,648
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
E2010
Growth vs previous year
-3.2%
-0.7%
2.8%
-0.2%
0.0%
Juice Drinks
2.0%
Nectar
3.3%
Juice 100%
0.0%
3.6%
CONSUMPTION OF FCOJ 66 BRIX EQUIVALENT – MM TONS 889
37
883
906
896
896
883
903
-1%
3%
-1%
0%
-1%
2%
OBS: Volumes of FCOJ 66 Brix Equivalent include Mixed Fruits and other blends with orange juice content and do not include Orange Syrup used in Carbonated Soft Drinks.
Source: Compass e2010 Products & Packages and Industry Estimated Reported Countries only. * only commercially traded volumes
Germany 2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
OJ liters
Mio Liters
1,399
1,303
1,326
1,269
1,250
1,202
1,230
FCOJ 66 Brix Equivalent
K Tons
231
211
213
201
199
193
198
Population: National Estimates at January 1st
'000
82,532
82,501
82,438
82,315
82,218
82,002
81,722
GDP per capita
US$
33,273
33,778
26,650
40,374
44,425
40,824
40,494
Unemployment Rate
%
9.2%
9.2%
8.1%
8.3%
7.3%
7.6%
6.8%
Total Disposable Income
US$ Billion
$1,851,009
$1,884,679
$1,940,979
$2,146,858
$2,354,737
Per Capita Annual Disposable Income
US$
$22,428
$22,844
$23,545
$26,081
$28,640
$27,299
$26,228
Inflation
%
1.7%
1.6%
1.6%
2.3%
2.6%
0.3%
1.1%
$2,238,533 $2,143,380
OBS: Volumes of FCOJ 66 Brix Equivalent include Mixed Fruits and other blends with orange juice content and do not include Orange Syrup used in Carbonated Soft Drinks.
Source: indexmundi / European Central Bank
38
Source: Compass 2010 Products & Packages and Industry Estimated Reported Countries only. * only commercially traded volumes
Orange Juice in Germany
Volumes in MM LITERS
Germans mainly drink 100% Juice, but decrease consumption CAGR 04 x 10
-2.1%
CAGR 04 x 07
CAGR 07 x 10
-3.2%
1,399 1,303
-1.0%
1,327 1,268
284
1,251 1,202
299
1,230
315 307
293
266
268
CAGR (%)
200 174
176 178
915
2004
830
836
2005
2006
Growth vs previous year
-6.8%
1.8%
185
176
170
784
773
760
792
2007
2008
2009
E2010
-4.3%
-1.5%
-3.9%
2004-10
Juice Drinks
-1.0%
Nectar
-2.6%
Juice 100%
-2.4%
2.4%
CONSUMPTION OF FCOJ 66 BRIX EQUIVALENT – MM TONS 231 39
211
213
-9%
1%
201 -5%
199 -1%
OBS: Volumes of FCOJ 66 Brix Equivalent include Mixed Fruits and other blends with orange juice content and do not include Orange Syrup used in Carbonated Soft Drinks.
193 -3%
198 -2%
Source: Compass e2010 Products & Packages and Industry Estimated Reported Countries only. * only commercially traded volumes
Asia
Asia Japan
South Korea
China
Indonesia
India
Philippines
Taiwan
40
Orange Juice Consumption Volume Trends by Subcategories
Asia, 2004-2010 Volumes in MM LITERS - Selected Countries
CAGR 04 x 10
8.6%
5,924
CAGR 04 x 07
CAGR 07 x 10
8.1%
9.0% 5,106 4,817 4,575
CAGR (%)
4,241 4,010
2004-10
3,619 4,739
2,858
3,034
3,431
3,671
4,008
Juice Drinks Nectar
2,455
Juice 100% 337
338
377
325
393
330
376
827
814
830
819
753
768
809
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
E2010
10.8%
5.8%
Growth vs previous year
7.9%
5.3%
6.0%
11.6%
1.9%
-0.4%
16.0%
CONSUMPTION OF FCOJ 66 BRIX EQUIVALENT – MM TONS 211 41
212
219
0.5%
3%
220
215
0.5%
-2%
OBS: Volumes of FCOJ 66 Brix Equivalent include Mixed Fruits and other blends with orange juice content and do not include Orange Syrup used in Carbonated Soft Drinks.
220 2%
238 8%
Source: Compass e2010 Products & Packages and Industry Estimated Reported Countries only. * only commercially traded volumes
BRIC + Mexico
BRIC Brasil Russia India China
42
Mexico
Brazil 2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
OJ liters
Mio Liters
710
734
766
708
721
759
820
FCOJ 66 Brix Equivalent
K Tons
37
40
41
37
38
41
45
Population: National Estimates at January 1st
'000
181,586
184,184
185.564
187,642
189,613
191,481
193,253
GDP per capita
US$
$3,655
$4,789
$5,871
$7,284
$8,642
$8,213
$10,810
Unemployment Rate
%
8.9%
9.4%
8.4%
8.2%
7.9%
8.1%
6.7%
Total Disposable Income
US$ Billion
$413,571
$543,443
$674,452
$839,460
$1,013,654
$1,012,634
$1,294,392
Per Capita Annual Disposable Income
US$
$2,278
$2,951
$3,635
$4,474
$5,346
$5,288
$6,698
Inflation
%
6.6%
6.9%
4.2%
3.6%
5.7%
4.9%
5.0%
OBS: Volumes of FCOJ 66 Brix Equivalent include Mixed Fruits and other blends with orange juice content and do not include Orange Syrup used in Carbonated Soft Drinks.
Source: indexmundi / European Central Bank
43
Source: Compass e2010 Products & Packages and Industry Estimated Reported Countries only. * only commercially traded volumes
Orange Juice in Brazil
Volumes in MM LITERS
Brazilians attracted by Juice drinks, total consumption increasing CAGR 04 x 10
2.4% CAGR 04 x 07
CAGR 07 x 10
-0.1%
5.0% CAGR (%)
819 710
626
734
633
766 708
720
759
Juice Drinks
699
662 622
630
654
Nectar
Juice 100%
60
44 40
2004
72
41
32
61 25
2005
2006
2007
Growth vs previous year
3.4%
4.4%
-7.6%
72
28
33
36
2008
2009
E2010
5.4%
1.9%
11.2%
-1.6%
84
62
1.7%
2004-10
7.9%
CONSUMPTION OF FCOJ 66 BRIX EQUIVALENT – MM TONS 37 44
40
41
37
38
41
45
8%
2%
-10%
3%
8%
10%
OBS: Volumes of FCOJ 66 Brix Equivalent include Mixed Fruits and other blends with orange juice content and do not include Orange Syrup used in Carbonated Soft Drinks.
Source: Compass 2010 Products & Packages and Industry Estimated Reported Countries only. * only commercially traded volumes
Russia 2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
OJ liters
Mio Liters
345
360
419
459
460
493
640
FCOJ 66 Brix Equivalent
K Tons
59
63
74
79
78
73
84
Population: National Estimates at January 1st
'000
144,168
143,475
142,754
142,221
142,009
141,904
141,786
GDP per capita
US$
$4,104
$5,329
$6,931
$9,142
$11,743
$8,667
$10,437
Unemployment Rate
%
7.8%
7.2%
7.2%
6.1%
6.3%
8.3%
7.5%
Total Disposable Income
US$ Billion
$333,693
$423,125
$544,769
$706,270
$900,746
$743,883
$832,977
Per Capita Annual Disposable Income
US$
$2,315
$2,949
$3,816
$4,966
$6,343
$5,242
$5,875
Inflation
%
10.9%
12.7%
9.7%
9.0%
14.1%
11.7%
6.9%
OBS: Volumes of FCOJ 66 Brix Equivalent include Mixed Fruits and other blends with orange juice content and do not include Orange Syrup used in Carbonated Soft Drinks.
Source: indexmundi / European Central Bank
45
Source: Compass 2010 Products & Packages and Industry Estimated Reported Countries only. * only commercially traded volumes
Orange Juice in Russia
Volumes in MM LITERS
Russians mainly drink Nectar, market growing fast CAGR 04 x 10
10.8% CAGR 04 x 07
CAGR 07 x 10
10.1%
11.6%
CAGR (%)
640 30
419
460
460
24
27
493
18
199
435
360 17 240
273
279
8.4%
26
20
345
2004-10
Juice Drinks
Nectar 14.0%
318
208
Juice 100%
128
135
2004
2005
Growth vs previous year
159
163
154
149
2006
2007
2008
2009
4.3%
16.4%
9.8%
0.0%
7.2%
5.3%
175
E2010 29.8%
CONSUMPTION OF FCOJ 66 BRIX EQUIVALENT – MM TONS 59 46
63
74
7%
18%
79 7%
78
73
84
-1%
-7%
15%
OBS: Volumes of FCOJ 66 Brix Equivalent include Mixed Fruits and other blends with orange juice content and do not include Orange Syrup used in Carbonated Soft Drinks.
Source: Compass 2010 Products & Packages and Industry Estimated Reported Countries only. * only commercially traded volumes
India 2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
99
93
101
142
225
236
236
17
16
16
17
18
19
19
OJ liters
Mio Liters
FCOJ 66 Brix Equivalent
K Tons
Population: National Estimates at January 1st
'000
1,086,130
1,103,042
1,119,751
1,136,264
1,152,598
1,168,783
1,215,939
GDP per capita
US$
$658
$762
$844
$1,053
$1,112
$1,089
$1,359
Unemployment Rate
%
9.7%
9.2%
9.5%
9.0%
8.6%
8.8%
9.3%
Total Disposable Income
US$ Billion
$573,732
$664,458
$733,601
$908,057
$965,343
$962,331
$1,338,227
Per Capita Annual Disposable Income
US$
$528
$602
$655
$799
$838
$823
$1,101
Inflation
%
3.8%
4.2%
6.2%
6.4%
8.3%
10.8%
12.1%
OBS: Volumes of FCOJ 66 Brix Equivalent include Mixed Fruits and other blends with orange juice content and do not include Orange Syrup used in Carbonated Soft Drinks.
Source: indexmundi / European Central Bank
47
Source: Compass 2010 Products & Packages and Industry Estimated Reported Countries only. * only commercially traded volumes
Orange Juice in India
Volumes in MM LITERS
Indians mainly drink Juice Drinks, market growing fast CAGR 04 x 10
15.6% CAGR 04 x 07
CAGR 07 x 10
12.9%
18.5% 225
CAGR (%)
236
236
2004-10
Juice Drinks
141
99 11
92
101
145
154
154
Juice 100%
23
88
81
78
79
80
82
82
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
E2010
7.1%
9.8%
-1.1%
62
11
Growth vs previous year
55.9%
39.6%
59.6%
4.9%
0.0%
CONSUMPTION OF FCOJ 66 BRIX EQUIVALENT – MM TONS 17
16 -7%
48
16
17
18
19
-2.7%
7%
10%
3%
OBS: Volumes of FCOJ 66 Brix Equivalent include Mixed Fruits and other blends with orange juice content and do not include Orange Syrup used in Carbonated Soft Drinks.
19 0%
Source: Compass 2010 Products & Packages and Industry Estimated Reported Countries only. * only commercially traded volumes
China 2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
OJ liters
Mio Liters
1,976
2,370
2,597
2,886
3,088
3,356
4,235
FCOJ 66 Brix Equivalent
K Tons
42
48
56
60
68
74
88
Population: National Estimates at January 1st
'000
1,292,270
1,299,880
1,307,560
1,314,480
1,321,290
1,328,020
1,341,414
GDP per capita
US$
$1,499
$1,771
$2,126
$2,632
$3,275
$3,697
$4,443
Unemployment Rate
%
4.2%
4.2%
4.1%
4.0%
4.2%
4.5%
4.1%
Total Disposable Income
US$ Billion
$1,128,309
$2,459,871
$2,689,722
$3,173,414
Per Capita Annual Disposable Income
US$
$873
$1,038
$1,213
$1,477
$1,862
$2,025
$2,366
Inflation
%
4.1%
1.9%
1.5%
5.0%
6.3%
-0.7%
3,3%
$1,349,832 $1,586,325 $1,941,290
OBS: Volumes of FCOJ 66 Brix Equivalent include Mixed Fruits and other blends with orange juice content and do not include Orange Syrup used in Carbonated Soft Drinks.
Source: indexmundi / European Central Bank
49
Source: Compass 2010 Products & Packages and Industry Estimated Reported Countries only. * only commercially traded volumes
Volumes in MM LITERS
Orange Juice in China
Chinese attracted by Juice drinks, total consumption increasing CAGR 04 x 10
13.6% CAGR 04 x 07
CAGR 07 x 10
13.5%
13.6%
CAGR (%)
4,236
2004-10
3,356 3,088
Juice Drinks
11.7%
Nectar
2.6%
Juice 100%
15.0%
2,885 2,597 2,371 3,841
1,976
2,100
2,259
2,590
2,700
3,010
1,720
172
176
2004
2005
84
Growth vs previous year
95
20.0%
166
240 148
176 170
201 194
2006
2007
2008
2009
E2010
9.6%
11.1%
7.0%
8.7%
226
112
129
26.2%
CONSUMPTION OF FCOJ 66 BRIX EQUIVALENT – MM TONS 42 50
48
56
60
68
74
88
14%
16%
8%
15%
8%
20%
OBS: Volumes of FCOJ 66 Brix Equivalent include Mixed Fruits and other blends with orange juice content and do not include Orange Syrup used in Carbonated Soft Drinks.
Source: Compass e2010 Products & Packages and Industry Estimated Reported Countries only. * only commercially traded volumes
Mexico 2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
OJ liters
Mio Liters
402
416
444
537
518
579
561
FCOJ 66 Brix Equivalent
K Tons
29
29
30
32
30
32
31
Population: National Estimates at January 1st
'000
103,002
103,946
104,875
105,791
106,684
107,787
108,997
GDP per capita
US$
$7,361
$8,141
$9,050
$9,667
$10,196
$8,117
$9,543
Unemployment Rate
%
3.7%
3.5%
3.2%
3.4%
3.5%
5.5%
5.4%
Total Disposable Income
US$ Billion
$509,906
$609,589
$679,022
$722,686
$727,002
$607,040
$709,229
Per Capita Annual Disposable Income
US$
$4,950
$5,864
$6,475
$6,831
$6,815
$5,632
$6,507
Inflation
%
4.7%
4.0%
3.6%
4.0%
5.1%
5.3%
4.2%
OBS: Volumes of FCOJ 66 Brix Equivalent include Mixed Fruits and other blends with orange juice content and do not include Orange Syrup used in Carbonated Soft Drinks.
Source: indexmundi / European Central Bank
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Source: Compass 2010 Products & Packages and Industry Estimated Reported Countries only. * only commercially traded volumes
Orange Juice in Mexico
Volumes in MM LITERS
Mexicans divided between Juice drinks and 100% Juice, consumption increasing CAGR 04 x 10
5.7%
CAGR 04 x 07
CAGR 07 x 10
10.1%
1.4%
578
537
561 CAGR (%)
519
2004-10
444
Juice Drinks
416
402
411
462
448
407
Juice 100%
321
283
295
119
121
123
126
112
116
113
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
E2010
-3.5%
11.6%
-3.0%
Growth vs previous year
3.5%
6.6%
21.1%
7.9%
-0.8%
CONSUMPTION OF FCOJ 66 BRIX EQUIVALENT – MM TONS 29
52
29
30
32
30
32
31
2%
-0%
6%
-7%
6%
-3%
OBS: Volumes of FCOJ 66 Brix Equivalent include Mixed Fruits and other blends with orange juice content and do not include Orange Syrup used in Carbonated Soft Drinks.
Source: Compass e2010 Products & Packages and Industry Estimated Reported Countries only. * only commercially traded volumes
What do we mean by „Soft Drinks‟? Category definition
BRIC + MEXICO 100% Juice Volume Impact AnalysisThese sub-categories Nectars (>25% juice)
Fruit / Flavoured Still Drinks
Tea based drinks
Coffee based drinks
Sports & Energy Drinks
Water
Carbonated Soft Drinks
53
are also grouped as “JNSD”
SIMULATION ANALYSIS: BRICs + MEXICO Same per Capita Consumption as of 2009 with German Segment Split and Dilution Factor Volumes in MM LITERS 09 - Selected Countries
COUNTRY
GDP PER CAPITA
DISPOSABLE INCOME PER CAPITA
ORANGE JUICE CONSUMPTION IN 2009
SEGMENTS
JUICE CONTENT DILUTION FACTOR
NECTARS
JUICE DRINKS
Liters ‘000
TONS FCOJ 66 BRIX EQUIVALENT
BRAZIL
$8,117
$5,227
75%
20%
788
41,475
RUSSIA
$8,667
$5,242
50%
13%
492
56,169
INDIA
$1,089
$823
10%
236
18,246
CHINA
$3,697
$2,025
5%
3,356
68,248
MEXICO
$8,117
$5,632
9%
784
37,412
5,656
221,552
5,656
792,658
BRIC + MEXICO
GERMANY
$ 5,991
25%
10%
$40,824
$27,299
72%
11%
BRICs + MEXICO at Germany’s Category Split ADDITIONAL ORANGE JUICE DEMAND BASED ON SIMULATION MODEL
54
4,519
588 549
$ 3,790
10%
62%
3,507
80%
15%
848
23%
1,301
571,105 Additional demand of 142 Million Boxes of Orange
Thank you!
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