Changing in Adaptation

CC: STRATEGIES AND APPROACH

Iuav. PhD Urbanism. Martina Barcelloni Corte,Chiara Cavalieri, Caterina Pregazzi

source: GLC , Globo Land Cover 2000

1 million 500.000 less 500.000

1-5 million

WORLD URBAN POPULATION

over 5 million

2010

9.3 billion people 52% urban population

source: GLC, UNPD, United Nations Development Programme, 2001

1 million 500.000 less 500.000

1-5 million

WORLD POPULATION GROWTH

over 5 million

2050

9.3 billion people 70% urban population

CLIMATE CHANGE

source: AMAP, Artic Monitoring and assessment program, 2009 1 million 500.000 less 500.000

1-5 million

over 5 million

DIRECTION

SHALLOW, WARM

Deep, COLD

CC

RISK MAP source: Repubblica, 8.XII.2009; GLMD; GLC; GWSP Digital Water Atlas, 2008 1 million 500.000 less 500.000

1-5 million

over 5 million

flood risk mortality

COASTAL URBANISATION

rainstorms

hidrography

CC

RISK

“Statement of Dr. R.K. Pachauri - UN Summit on Climate Change, 22 September 2009” (IPCC 2009)

RISK

“Kick the Habit: A UN Guide to Climate Neutrality” UNEP 2009

STRATEGIES

“Emerging Climate Change Adaption Strategies” J.Penney 2008

STRATEGIES

mitigation indirect damage prevention deals with the anthropological causes of CC “an anthropological intervention to reduce the sources or enhance sinks of greenhouse gases�

Third Assesment Report IPCC 2001

STRATEGIES

mitigation

Humbo Assisted Regeneration Project

STRATEGIES

adaptation direct damage prevention deals with the physical consequences of CC “as adjustment in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities�

Third Assesment Report IPCC 2001

STRATEGIES

adaptation

Protection of the Venice Lagoon against the rise in water level

- IDDRI 2009

STRATEGIES

inter-relationships

Chapter 18 - Fourth Assessment Report on Climate Change IPCC 2006

STRATEGIES

inter-relationships

Chapter 18 - Fourth Assessment Report on Climate Change IPCC 2006

STRATEGIES

vulnerability - exposure to climate stimuli - sensitivity to climate stimuli -adaptive capacity managed by -preparing for or reducing exposure to hazardous events -developing mechanisms to aid recovery after event strikes

Fourth Assessment Report IPCC 2006

“The vulnerability of an ecological system is determined by the adaptive capacity.�

IPCC - fourth assessment report for climate change 2006

tree of life - diagram that shows how different types of species are related.

Adaptation - adjustment in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities.

- evolutionary process whereby a population becomes better suited to its habitat.

ECOLOGY/ADAPTATION

“The vulnerability of an ecological system is determined by the adaptive capacity.”

IPCC - fourth assessment report for climate change 2006

ASSOCIATION OF THE VALLEY PLAN WITH THE VALLEY SECTION RURAL OCCUPATION TO MARKET TOWN P. Geddes 1917

Ecology - (from Greek: οίκος, oikos, “household”; and λόγος, logos, “know-

ledge”) is the scientific study of the distribution and abundance of living organisms and how the distribution and abundance are affected by interactions between the organisms and their environment.

Coined by german biologist Ernst Haeckel in 1866.

Recovered by Arne Naess in his 1973 article “The Shallow and the Deep, Long-Range Ecology Movements”

ECOLOGY/ADAPTATION

J. R. MCNEILL

Supreme adaptation to existing circumstances consists in pursue specializations, it can work well if circumstances are stable.

Sharks are supremely well adapted to hunting, killing, and eating good-sized sea creatures, they have done well with this for over 200 million years because the oceans, despite considerable changes, always contained a goodly supply of shark food.

In the very long view of biological evolution, the best survival strategy is to be adaptable, to pursue diverse sources of subsistence and to maximize resilience.

This is because in the long run there will be surprises, shocks, and catastrophes that kill off some species Homo sapiens has enjoyed great biological success on the strength of adaptability. So have some species of rat.

ADAPTATION: 2 STRATEGIES

The rat and shark strategies have their (rough) analogues in human societies.

In recent millennia, cultural evolution has shaped human affairs more than biological evolution has.

Fine-tuned adaptation (shark strategy) is rewarded by continuous success only so long as governing conditions stay the same Stable social orders, such as those of pharaonic Egypt, feudal Europe, or imperial China, rested on exquisite adaptation to existing ecological (and other) circumstances.

While those circumstances persisted, such societies prospered, but in the long run they faced crises made more acute by their success.

Ascesa e decadenza delle principali civiltĂ del mediterraneo - F. Capra, The turning point, 1982

THE SHARK STRATEGY

TODAY we energetically pursued adaptations to MORE END MORE evanescent circumstances.

To regard these circumstances as enduring and normal, and to depend on their continuation, is an interesting gamble.

CHEAP ENERGY is a feature of the fossil fuel age roughly since 1820, CHEAP WATER dates to the nineteenth century exept in a few favored settings. +

To worsten the situation the fact that today humans have the power to stress global ecology

L’epoca dei combustibili fossili nel contesto dell’evoluzione culturale - F. Capra, The turning point, 1982

We have created a regime of perpetual ecological disturbance, accidental by-product of billions of human (private) ambitions and efforts, of unconscious social evolution.

THE SHARK STRATEGY

Until 1960 water was seen exclusevely as a resource Control and appropriation of water have been fundamental to the building of human cultures and civilizations that were erected on the

surplus producted when great rivers could be manged and their flows diverted into irrigation canals and ditches

The sophistication of tecnology and social coordination necessary to establish and mantain such systems is such that it has suggested the concept of “hydraulic civilization” a specific type of social formation founded upon centralized state authority with its own forces and relations of production emerging out of water engineering and control The Wittfogel thesis identifies an intimate link between environmental authority in the form of water control and political power In 1908 Winston Churchill during a trip in Africa stopped on the south of lake Victoria (second for dimension) starring at water falling from the Owen Falls to the White Nile (first for length) and wrote on his memories: “what a waste!” In 1954 when Churchill was prime minister for the secon time the waters of the Nile fell into a turbine to generate energy Owen falls dam

RESISTANCE

Many of the completed schemes have failed to deliver deir promise benefits while burdening their countries with vast debts, unsaluble electrical power and adverse environmental consequences.

La questione non è dunque di stabilire se i vantaggi ottenuti negli ultimi 150 anni siano REALI ma se siano PERMANENTI

PRESSIONE DEMOGRAFICA ESAURIMENTO ED IMPOVERIMENTO DELLE RISORSE INTENSIFICAZIONE DELLA PRODUZIONE

E’ necessario dunque mostrare il rapporto esistente tra BENESSERE CULTURALE E MATERIALE and the RELATION BETWEEN COSTS AND BENEFITS di sistemi per aumentare la produzione e controllare la crescita demografica.

nazi propaganda - January 1940 cartoon, Churchill loses a boxing match with the world. The caption: “Damn! The training ball fights back!”

RESISTANCE

DEEP WATERS DAMS AND DEVIATIONS LAND RECLAIM

WATER RESISTANCE TYPOLOGIES

GREAT MAN MADE RIVER PROGECT During the exploration for oil in the Libyan Desert , investigations have shown the existence of potentially vast fresh water aquifers, lying at depths of less than 100 meters below the surface. There are four major underground basins in the region.

DEEP WATERS DAMS AND DEVIATIONS LAND RECLAIM

False-color image of the Grand Omar Mukhtar reservoir project. Water (dark blue) residing in reservoirs appears twice in this image, in the upper right and at the bottom. Vegetation appears red, cityscape structures such as pavement and buildings appear in gray, bare ground appears tan or beige.

W. RESISTANCE TYPOLOGIES

annual rainfall ranging from 10 mm to 500mm 5 % of the entire area of Libya exceeds 100mm annually evaporation rates are ranging from 1,700mm in the north to 6,000mm in the south ground water is the primary source of freshwater covering 96 % of demand.

Aquifer replenishment in the coastal areas is 500m cubic metres per year - small compared to the ever-increasing rate of consumption - at present to 4.7 bn cubic metres per year intrusion of seawater in the coastal aquifer with a marked increase in salinity, which has reached 7,000 ppm in the Tripoli region.

The Kufra Basin covers an area of 350,000 square kilometres and has an estimated groundwater storage capacity of 20,000 cubic kilometres in the Libyan sector.

DEEP WATERS DAMS AND DEVIATIONS LAND RECLAIM

The fresh water aquifer in the Sirt Basin has an average depth of 600 metres and is estimated to hold over 10,000 cubic kilometres of water.

The Murzuk basin, which is estimated to be 450,000 square kilometres, has an upper aquifer thickness of around 800 metres and an estimated storage capacity of 4,800 cubic kilometres.

Finally, the Hamadah, which extends from the Qargaf Arch and Jabal Sawda to the coast, has a capacity of 4000 cubic kilometres.

W. RESISTANCE TYPOLOGIES

THE COST of the whole project: 30 biliards US dollars 4 times the annual income for oil

DEEP WATERS DAMS AND DEVIATIONS LAND RECLAIM

W. RESISTANCE TYPOLOGIES

Main pipelines The total length is 4 071 km Well fields 1116 production wells Water Reservoirs In addition to the concrete reservoirs constructed on project lines a number of agricultural reservoirs were constructed in open circular lakes with different diameters larger than (1km)

DEEP WATERS DAMS AND DEVIATIONS LAND RECLAIM

Reservoirs

Storage Capacity

Ajdabiya holding reservoir Omar EL-Mokhtar reservoir Omar EL-Mokhtar Grand reservoir Ghordabiya reservoir Ghordabiya Grand reservoir Total storage capacity

4,000.000 cubic meters 4,700.000 cubic meters 24,000,000 cubic meters 6,800.000 cubic meters 15,400.000 cubic meters 54,900.00 cubic meters

W. RESISTANCE TYPOLOGIES

03 October 1983 The General People’s Congress decided to fund and execute the Great Man-Made River Project.

28 August 1984 commencement of the construction of the Great Man-Made River Project.

26 August 1989 starts fase II

DEEP WATERS DAMS AND DEVIATIONS LAND RECLAIM Water arrival

11 September 1989 Ajdabiya reservoir.

28 September 1989 Omar Muktar reservoir.

04 September 1991 Al Gardabiya reservoir.

28 August 1996 First Water to Tripoli.

TODAY URBANISTS SUGGEST MIX USE OF WATER

W. RESISTANCE TYPOLOGIES

DEEP WATERS DAMS AND DEVIATIONS LAND RECLAIM Long Live Stalin, Great Architect of Communism RUSSIA - CIRCA 1900: Stalin overlooks what was the largest electric power dam in the world at the Dneperpetrovk in the Ukraine near Kiev with electric towers

The First Five-Year Plan called for transforming Soviet

agriculture from predominantly individual farms into a system of large state collective farms.

The Communist regime believed that collectivization would improve agricultural productivity and would produce grain reserves sufficiently large to feed the growing urban labor force.

The anticipated surplus was to pay for industrialization, the main goal was self sufficiency.

Collectivization was further expected to free many peasants for industrial work in the cities and to enable the party to extend its political dominance over the remaining peasantry.

W. RESISTANCE TYPOLOGIES

delirio di Stalin di cambiare la geografia e il clima del suo paese con progetti faraonici dai costi umani e ambientali elevatissimi progetti mai portati a compimento perchè impossibili come le canalizzazioni dei fiumi siberiani verso i deserti meridionali per consentire la coltivazione del cotone o il prosciugamento del golfo di kara bogaz per estrarre solfato di sodio.

DEEP WATERS DAMS AND DEVIATIONS LAND RECLAIM il GRANDE CANALE FERGANA STALIN lungo 270 km fu scavato da 180 000 volontari in 45 giorni nulla in confronto al GRANDE CANALE LENIN lungo 1 150 km che irrigava l’intero deserto del karakum il costo di queste operazioni fu il prosciugamento del lago d’Aral che si trovò sottoalimentato - di questo mare interno una volta pescoso non restava che una pozzanghera le carcasse dei pescherecci incastrate tra le dune di sabbia si mostravano come vittime dello slogan del partito “il cotone a qualsiasi prezzo!”

W. RESISTANCE TYPOLOGIES

Nel corso del xx secolo è stato drenato all incirca il 15 % dei 10 milioni di metri quadrati di terre umide (superficie = al canada)

Nel 1998 la meta di quell che resta di terre umide del pianeta si trova in Siberia Alaska e nel Canada settentrionale destinate x ora a rimaneere tali xche non ripagherebbero I costi del drenaggio Unitamente all imbrigliamento dei fiumi questa ebbrezza drenatrice delle terre umide ha determinato uno dei massimi cambiamenti ambientali del nostro tempo

A complex of wetlands and cultivated land on the eastern Padana plain, being the remnants of a large complex of lagoons, most of which were drained from 1850 onwards. The shallow, brackish lagoon of Valli di Comacchio is the largest in Italy and one of the largest in the Mediterranean basin.

DEEP WATERS DAMS AND DEVIATIONS LAND RECLAIM

W. RESISTANCE TYPOLOGIES

La dinamica della crisi ecologica.

La crisi ecologica si deve alle “patologie dell’epistemologia”. G. Bateson: Verso un’ecologia della mente Adelphi Milano 1976 Parte 6° pag. 498-515.

Bateson’s diagram (1972- Steps to an Ecology of Mind ) displays the dynamics of the ecological crisis according to his theory.

Hybris covers the Western erroneous thinking such as purposive thinking, which ignore the context with the whole of Nature.

ECOLOGICAL CRISIS

shark strategy and purpouse thinking is leading us towards an acceleration of the climate change

Climate has changed little for 10,000 years, since the retreat of the last ice age; it s changing fast now.

ACCELERATION

In the twentieth century, societies often pursued the shark strategy amid a global ecology ever more unstable, and hence ever more suited for rats.

Ne è sintomo l’apparizione timida del termine resilienza in ecologia

La definizione di resilienza data dall’enciclopedia italiana (Treccani) contiene la parola resistenza.

“Resilienza:misura della resistenza all’urto di un materiale..” la resilienza sarebbe quindi, secondo questa accezione, la misura della resistenza di un corpo al collasso.

Il termine resistenza contiene concettualmente quello di resilienza e questo accade forse perché il secondo nasce, o meglio si sviluppa in grembo al primo.

NEW PARADIGMS

resilio: jump back

RESILIENCE

mechanical system the measure of the disturbance that can be absorbed before the system changes his structure

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RESILIENCE

ecosystems resilience “the measure of the disturbance that can be absorbed before the system changes his structure.�

1973 Holling

RESILIENCE

ecosystems resilience “the measure of the disturbance that can be absorbed before the system changes his structure.” stability “the measure of resistance to disturbance and the speed of return to the equilibrium.”

1973 Holling

RESILIENCE

social systems “the measure of a system’s or part of a system’s capacity to absorb and recover from the occurence of a hazardous event”

1981 Timmerman

RESILIENCE

social systems reactive adaptation “approach the future by modifying the status quo and making the present resistant to change�

1992 Dovers and Handmer

RESILIENCE

social systems reactive adaptation “approach the future by modifying the status quo and making the present resistant to change”

proactive adaptation “accept the inevitability of change and tries to create a resilient system that is able to adapting to new conditions.”

1992 Dovers and Handmer

RESILIENCE

urban resilience

urban systems

physical systems

urban resilient systems

physical systems

urban systems

+ physical systems

social systems

urban resilient systems

social systems

resilient cities

L.J. Vale, T.J. Campanella, 2005

resilient cities

Hiroshima 6.VII.1945

resilient cities

New Orleans 31.VIII.2005

designing resilient cities 01 perturbation: sea level rising

02 adaptation: resistent approach

03 adaptation: resilient approach

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adaptation: resilient approach

designing resilient cities What would a sustainable city mean if it could not last more than a century?

Are we still able to design a city that would be worth keeping for 400 years?

Which kind of spatial quality could be so valuable that we would keep fighting for it and adapt it despite all odds?

Charles Bessard ,Copenhagen, December 2009