Shop Patronage | 20.303 Urban Analysis

20.016 Urban Analysis

SHOP PATRONAGE V Hotel (Lavender) / Prinsep Street / Bliss Hotel (Chinatown) Clifford Mario Kosasih (1000294) Goh Pei Xuan (1000286) Ho Jia Jia Sharon (1000091) Neo Jun Hao Kevin Josiah (1000133) Oor Eiffel (1000293)

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TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. INTRODUCTION

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2. LITERATURE REVIEW

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3. RESEARCH QUESTION

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4. HYPOTHESES

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5. PHOTOGRAPHIC MATERIAL

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6. IN-DEPTH ANALYSIS FOR V HOTEL, PRINSEP STREET AND BLISS HOTEL OUTLETS

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7. BIVARIATE SCATTER-PLOTS

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8. CONCLUSION

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9. DESIGN RECOMMENDATIONS

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10. BIBLIOGRAPHY

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1. INTRODUCTION In a built environment, it is interesting to observe how the patronage of a retail business is affected by the attributes of its location. This characteristics range from the most immediate context such as shop visibility, sidewalk width and building size to the location accessibility and the presence of competitive/complementary clustering. This experiment aims to find a correlation between these different characteristics of three Cheers stores (a convenience store) that are located within the central region of Singapore with its patronage per day. The three Cheers stores are the Prinsep branch, the V Hotel Lavender branch and the Bliss Hotel branch. To investigate the different characteristics of the location, spatial accesibility metrics and advanced spatial network analysis are utilised to understand the variation in patronage per day of these three stores.

2. LITERATURE REVIEW The effect of location and its attributes to retail establishments’ business has been studied by various scholars. Porta, Strano, Iacovello and Messora discovers that location decision of different retail stores are affected primarily by street centrality that leads to visibility and accessibility (2009, 463). When stores are concentrated in areas that are easily accessible and the junction connecting different activity nodes, there is a higher chance for that stores to capture people who are passing by that location for unplanned visits, hence improving their patronage.

Furthermore, Sevtsuk (2014) also confirms that the more accessible a location in a particular area is, the more likely that location will become a retail establishment. This follows the fact that retail establishments want to attract as many people as possible within its reach to increase its revenue. Thus, measures such as proximity to commercial activities, transit nodes and road junctions contribute to the degree of accessibility of that location, which may result in the increase of patronage of the retail establishments.

Other than the location centrality of retail establishments, Sevtsuk has also investigated the effect on the tendency of clustering between stores that sell complementary and competitive goods with respect to the types of stores. While it is observed that stores selling non-competing goods are generally clustering together, a more in-depth research suggests that competitive clustering are more likely to be present among search goods such as clothings, apparel and restaurant services as compared to convenience goods like liquor and groceries.

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3. RESEARCH QUESTION To understand how location attributes influence the shop patronage per day of similar stores.

4. HYPOTHESES Our first hypothesis was that shops with larger view shed have higher patronage per day. View shed is a measure of visibility from the nearby roads. Porta and Strano (2009) believes that centrality of location will result in better visibility and hence more favorable for the retail establishments.

Our second hypothesis was that shops with closer proximity with competitive businesses have lower patronage per day.

This follows Sevtsuk (2014) findings that convenience stores selling non-search goods are less likely to be located nearby other convenience store. This is because they sell similar and competing goods that require no comparison between store to store, resulting in a lower patronage if they cluster together.

Our third hypothesis was that shops with closer proximity to more commercial activities have higher patronage per day.

This is measured by the GFA of the surrounding buildings which is interpreted to be proportional to the number of people who are working or visiting the nearby buildings.

Our fourth hypothesis was that shops with closer proximity to transportation nodes with more traffic flow have higher patronage per day. Based on the findings from Porta and Strano (2009), the more accessible the location is, the more favorable it is for a retail establishment to be there. In this case, accessibility is measured in terms of the bus stops and the number of tapouts on that bus stop. In this case, we assume that an increase in overall density of possible pedestrians originating from transportation nodes at the location of the shop will result in higher patronage. However, this is with consideration of the decay rate due to walking distance.

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5. PHOTOGRAPHIC MATERIAL Supermarket

HDB Estate

7-Eleven

Condominium

Cheers at V Hotel

Community Centre

7-Eleven (MRT)

ICA Building

V HOTEL CONTEXT

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Commerical Strip

POMO Shopping Centre

Cheers at Prinsep Street

NTUC Income Office

SOTA

Hotel Rendevous

PRINSEP STREET CONTEXT

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People’s Park Centre

Chinatown Point

Cheers at Bliss Hotel

HDB Estate

MRT Entrance

Shophouse 5-ft way

BLISS HOTEL CONTEXT

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6. IN-DEPTH ANALYSIS FOR V HOTEL, PRINSEP STREET AND BLISS HOTEL OUTLETS VIEW SHED V Hotel Outlet

Prinsep Street Outlet

Bliss Hotel Outlet 2 3

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Perimeter of view shed: 570.71m Patronage per day: 345

Perimeter of view shed: 622.57m Patronage per day: 579

Perimeter of view shed: 277.56m Patronage per day: 365

Based on the view sheds of the three stores, it is seen that the larger the perimeter of the view shed, the higher the patronage per day. However, the relationship between the two factors is not directly proportional as even though the stores at V Hotel and Bliss Hotel have a similar patronage value, the perimeters of the view sheds are very different, which could be due to other factors.

Having a larger perimeter of view shed means that the store can be seen from more points, which increases the likelihood of pedestrians visiting the store and results in a higher patronage per day.

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COMPETITIVE CLUSTERING

V Hotel Outlet

The V Hotel outlet has an average daily patronage of 345 people, which is the least among the 3 outlets we have chosen. As its gravity index is quite low at 3936.795, it explains the lesser amount of people arriving at that destination (weights taken as the area, corresponding to the number of people) after taking into distance decay.

r: 20878 g: 13132.345 c: 46.17749 s: 17375.280

r: 13693 g: 3936.795 c: 4.37540 s: 9810.326

Shops with closer proximity with competitive businesses have lower patronage per day. In the case for Cheers, we chose to compare against 7-Eleven stores as its major competitor as these two brands are the leading convenience stores in Singapore. Hence, we included points in the network representing the various 7-Eleven stores which could be found within 600m reach of our respective Cheers outlet.

Besides having the 7-Eleven stores as our competitors, we have aso included the 13 Cheers outlets as our competitors. After utilising the ‘unaFindClosestFacility’ tool, we were able to determine the building points which are closest to the competitor stores as well as to our Cheers outlets, allowing us to understand the distribution of the immediate market among competitors. From these, the gravity index of each of our Cheers outlets to the distributed building points (as highlighted with the red lines below) was also calculated and compared against each other.

Prinsep Street Outlet

The Prinsep Street outlet has the highest amount of average daily patronage of 579 people, even though its gravity index is lower than the Bliss hotel outlet. This might be due to the composition of commercial activities there, comprising of more offices and shopping malls. The average building heights at Prinsep are hence taller than those near Bliss Hotel and the gravity index does not take into account the height of the buildings, resulting in a smaller value.

r: 30928 g: 17077.151 c: 5.43163 s: 23124.473

Bliss Hotel Outlet

Even though the Bliss Hotel outlet has a higher gravity index as compared to the Prinsep Street outlet, the average daily patronage is much lower. This is due to the fact that the shortest path from the building points to the Bliss hotel outlet may not be the preferred path by walkers due to various reasons. Hence, these shoppers would actually visit other competitor stores in the area instead. Furthermore, most shoppers make unplanned stopovers to Cheers.

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NEARBY COMMERCIAL ACTIVITIES Location

Total Commercial Area (sqm)

Patronage per day

V Hotel

170165.38

345

Prinsep Street

930322.10

579

Bliss Hotel

658805.00

365

Shops with closer proximity to more commercial activities have higher patronage per day. The commercial activities in the area were measured based on the GFA of commercial areas (shophouses, hotels, commercial buildings, and malls). The figures above were obtained with estimations made to the height of the buildings in the area according to our site observation and information found online.

The shophouses in the Chinatown area (Bliss hotel) are mostly 4 storeys high. The commercial buildings are at an average of 6 storeys, hotels at 4, while malls at 3. The vicinity around the Cheers stall at prinsep has taller hotels and commercial buildings with an average of 12 storeys. Shophouses in this region mostly has 3 storeys. The commercial buildings in the vicinity of V Hotel is generally lower at a height of 4 storeys, with mostly 2 storeys shophouses.

With higher commercial activities in the vicinity, patronage is expected to be higher as volume of people increases. This is because the cheers stores will be servicing more people. Also, with more commercial activities as attraction points, the frequency of passers-by increases, possibly increasing patronage.

As we can see from the chart above, the Cheers store located at prinsep has the highest GFA of commercial activities within a 600m walking radii. It, too, has the highest patronage per day.

V hotel

Prinsep

Bliss Hotel

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7. BIVARIATE SCATTER-PLOTS ACCESSIBILITY

Diagram 1: Relationship between proximity of bus stop tapouts and patronage

Diagram 2: Relationship between proximity of bus stop and patronage

Diagram 3: Relationship between frequency of passers-by from bus stops and patronage

The Gravity index weighs the number of bus stops and tapouts per day and takes their distance into account. From these diagrams, it can be seen that Cheers stores with a larger number of commuters coming from the bus stops result in a higher patronage per day, as with a higher pedestrian density in that area, it increases the likelihood of them entering the store to purchase a good. However, the proximity of bus stops to the Cheers stores do not affect their patronage significantly (Diagram 2) as this is dependent on the number and type of bus services available at the bus stop.

The Betweenness index indicates the frequency of pedestrians passing by the Cheers stores as they go from bus stops to the surrounding buildings. Diagram 3 shows that as the number of passers-by increases, there is a higher patronage per day to the Cheers stores. As trips to convenience stores are usually unplanned trips, passing by these stores would increase the probability of passers-by entering the store to purchase a good. Therefore, with a higher frequency of passers-by, it increases the patronage of 11 the store.

8. CONCLUSION The four hypotheses that we have postulated in the beginning of the research hold true to a certain extent, considering the assumptions made.

1. shops with larger view shed have higher patronage per day 2. shops with closer proximity with competitive businesses have lower patronage per day 3. shops with closer proximity to more commercial activities have higher patronage per day 4. shops with closer proximity to transportation nodes with more traffic flow have higher patronage per day We have managed to understand better the correlation between each location attributes to the patronage of each stores. However, it is difficult to justify the relative significance of each location attributes with respect to the patronage per day. Therefore, for future research, it would be better if we can design a model that takes into account these four attributes to be able to come up with the relative significance.

To improve the research, we could have counted pedestrians passing by the respective outlets. This can be done at different timings and intervals during various times of the day and the week. Hence for this research exercise, due to the time constraints, it may not be justified to take one or two sample to represent the overall pedestrian count.

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9. DESIGN RECOMMENDATIONS These design improvements were suggested after taking into account the patronage of convenience shops in relation to their urban envrionment.

1. Increase the glass to signage proportion As shown in the images on the right, existing convenience shops at all three locations have facades have a high proportion of glass. This allows pedestrians to look at the variety of goods sold in the convenience stall.

The signage acts as a supporting element to the glass facade. It indicates the chain’s name and colours. To break the transparency of the glass, some convenience chains utilise printed decals on the glass facade.

Based on the view shed analysis, we realised that the visibility of the convenience stalls were highly dependent on the visual impact of the signage rather than the glass facade. This might suggest that the high proportion of glass used in the facade discourages visibility. Therefore by increasing the proportion of signage, the visual prominence of the convenience shop is directly increased. The resultant view shed might be greater.

However the high proportion of glass used in the facade does increase its prominence at night. Light from within the convenience shop can be seen from large distances. Nonetheless this occurs to many other shops with similar proportion of glass facade. An increase in signage proportion would also result in larger lit signage at night, giving a clearer indication of the convenience shop’s presence.

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2. Reduce distance between convenience stores and transportation nodes The accessibility of a convenience store has a direct relation to its patronage. In our analysis of convenience stores, transportation nodes served as the points of origin for pedestrians. Hence the walkability of routes taken to convenience shops in terms of distance, has a proportional effect on the potential patronage of the shops.

Cheers - Bliss Hotel

By reducing the distances between transportation nodes and convenience shops, the overall walkability and accessibility is improved, which might result in increased patronage. The accessibility of the Bliss Hotel branch could be improved by introducing a new bus stop or shifting the current bus stop nearer to its location.

Cheers - Prinsep

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3. Increase the width of walkways leading to shops The walkability of pedestrian pathways along the existing convenience shops can be improved to increase the patronage of shops. This design intervention can take place at the Bliss Hotel branch, through the increasing of the walkway width. This increases walkway capacity for higher volumes of traffic, which may potentially lead to greater patronage. Alternatively, the perception of the walkway width could be changed by reducing the thickness or porosity of the supporting columns.

4. Increase regulatory distance between competitors to encourage a better distribution of convenience shops in an area Based on the analysis of the distribution of the immediate market among competitors in the same area, we understand that the relative convenience of shops is highly dependent on the spatial distribution competitors. Closer proxmity of competitors would indicate a smaller overall service area, which implies higher competition between shops.

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New Cheers - V Hotel

The introduction of a reulatory distance between competitors would encourage a slightly more disperse spatial distribution of convenience shops that might potentially widen the overall service area. The decrease in competition and increase in proportion of captive market with respect to individual service area might potentially increase patronage.

New

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10. BIBLIOGRAPHY Porta, S., Strano, E., Iacoviello, V., Messora, R., Latora, V., Cardillo, A., … Scellato, S. (2009).

Street centrality and densities of retail and services in Bologna, Italy. Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, 36, 450–465.

Proudfoot, M. J. (1937). City Retail Structure. Economic Geography, 13(4), 425–428.

Vandell, K., & Carter, C. C. (1993). Retail Store Location and Market Analysis: A Review of Literature. Journal of Real Estate Literature, 1, 13–45.

Eppli, M., & Benjamin, J. (1994). The Evolution of Shopping Center Research. Journal of Real Estate Research, Vol. 9(1), pp. 5–32 .

Eppli, M., & Shilling, J. (1996). How Critical is a Good Location to a Regional Shopping Center?

Journal of Real Estate Research, Vol. 12(3), 459–469.

Sevtsuk, A. (2014). Location and Agglomeration: the Distribution of Retail and Food Businesses in Dense Urban Neighborhoods. Journal of Planning Education and Research, 1(21).

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