Research & Forecast Report Bulgaria | Office Real Estate Market H2 2014
Office Market Overview
• Gross take-up or all office market transactions during 2014 amounted to 138,300 m².
• Net absorption of class A and B office space in 2014 recorded values similar to those in 2013.
• Latest Colliers BPO Sentiment Survey results show positive expectations toward industry development and willingness to expand, both within and outside the capital. 42% of the surveyed companies plan to change their current offices.
Supply Supply of modern office space class A and B in Sofia increased insignificantly (just above 1%) in the second half of 2014. Total stock reached 1,748,000 m² and registered an annual growth of 4% due to newly completed buildings concentrated mainly in the Broad Centre and suburban areas. Established office locations in Sofia continued to develop well and indicated a tendency towards further expansion over the coming years. It is anticipated that the areas of Business Park Sofia, Nikola Vaptzarov Blvd. and Sofia Airport will benefit from the subway extension, which will boost tenants’ motivation to move their offices there. Meanwhile, city areas with good accessibility, although not along the metro lines, continued to enjoy strong demand and rent increase. Central Business District and Broad Center remain attractive. Several new projects are expected to be completed in these areas in the next few years. Supply of Class A projects, built according to international standards, registered a slight increase of 2% compared to the first half of 2014. In the second half of the past year construction of several new office buildings started. Thus, the total volume of office space under active construction amounts to approximately 200,000 m².
Demand Office space demand remained stable in the past 18-24 months. Increasing interest towards high quality class A office space was a clear trend, particularly in areas perceived as established business hubs - Tsaridgradsko Shose Blvd., the area of Business Park Sofia and Bulgaria Blvd. The area of 7-11 km at Tsaridgradsko Shose Blvd., around the new office project Capital Fort draws the attention of companies with high standards and plans for expansion in 2015. Net absorption* of class A and B office space in the second half of 2014 was approx. 71,200 m². Thus, annual net absorption reached 117,300 m², which is similar to 2013 figures. Gross take-up**, i.e. all office transactions during the second half of 2014, amounted to 77,570 m², totaling 138,300 m² for the year. 50% of the office transactions in 2014 were due to tenants’ relocation and 30% was generated from expansion of business already present on the Bulgarian market. Approximately 8% was the share of companies that entered the Bulgarian market for the first time; among them are Luxoft, Soft Serve, Taulia, Louis Dreyfus, Tinqin, Epam system, to mention a few. Main demand drivers in the sector continued to be the outsourcing and IT industry (52%) - international companies that were expanding their business locally or entered the Bulgarian market for the first time. The steady growth in the segment led to companies’ expansion to different markets outside of Sofia, where most wanted destinations remained
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Office Market Overview | H2 2014 | Colliers International
Plovdiv and Varna. According to the latest Colliers BPO Sentiment Survey conducted at the end of 2014: • 83% of the participants expect their revenues in 2015 to surpass the figures for 2014; • 60% plan to increase their number of employees, where the most frequently mentioned increment is in the range of 100 to 200 people;
Average asking rental rate for office space class A is 13 euro per m², while effective rents range from 10.5 to 12 euro per m² depending on the location and the specific requirements of the tenants. (Graph 2)
Graph 2. Class A asking rental levels (euro/ m2/ month) 17 15
• The number of companies with established second location outside of Sofia raised; most preferred cities remain Varna, Plovdiv and Burgas;
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• 42% of the respondents plan to change their offices, pointing out the following as key factors in the decisionmaking process: location, total cost, parking and access by car. (Graph 1) 2009
Graph 1. What are the main decision drivers in the choice of office space?
CBD
12
12
11
11
9
9
9
2011
2012
2013
Broad Center
13 12 10
2014
Suburbs
83%
Location
Forecast
75%
Overall costs Parking
42%
Easy access by car
42%
Image of the building
• The outsourcing sector is anticipated to remain a key demand driver, also expanding office locations outside of Sofia. Plovdiv and Varna are provoking the highest interest among BPO companies, with other cities such as Burgas expected to follow.
33%
Availability of Property/ Facility management
33%
Convenient public transportation
25%
Sustainability of the building*
17%
The size of the office space
8% 0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
* energy efficiency, quality of indoor environment, use of sustainable materials
Office vacancy In the second half of 2014, available office space in Sofia reached levels of 255,300 m², totaling 15% of the whole market, and registered more than a 2% drop compared to the first half. On an annual basis the decrease was approximately 3%. Vacant office space in 22 class A projects shrank by half and at the end of 2014 reached levels of 20,360 m², regardless the slight increase in supply. Stable demand, on one hand, and limited supply of available space in class A office projects, on the other, are the first signs that the market may start to turn from tenant– to landlord-driven.
Rental levels
• Shortage of high quality office space in certain Bulgarian cities will lead to a change of use and restructuring of some non-office projects. • Gross take-up is expected to increase as a result of renewal of lease agreements, signed during the last peak of class A office supply in the capital. • The share of owner-occupied office buildings, whether built-to-suit or acquired, is expected to grow as a result of higher interest of local companies.
Definitions * Net Absorption - Net Absorption refers to the change in occupied stock from one period to the next. It refers only to existing stock (not the development pipeline). ** Gross Take-up – Total Occupational Market Activity is the total floorspace known to have been let or sold as one of the following activity types during the period: Pre-lets, New Occupation/Lease, Expansion, Renewal/Renegotiation, Sub-lease and Sale & Leaseback
Asking rents for class B offices in Broad Center and the suburban area in Sofia in the second half of 2014 registered a slight increase and reached levels of 7 and 6 euro per m², respectively.
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2010
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Office Market Overview | H2 2014 | Colliers International
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$2.1
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Verka Petkova Manager | Offices and Industrial Services +359 2 976 9 976 verka.petkova@colliers.com Adriana Toncheva Senior Market Researcher +359 2 976 9 976 adriana.toncheva@colliers.com
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million square meters under management
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professionals and staff
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