Monthly Indicators A RESEARCH TOOL PROVIDED BY THE HILTON HEAD AREA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
July 2011
Quick Facts
At the height of summer, we're finally beginning to move beyond comparisons to the 2010 incentive market. Even so, sudden changes in sales volumes are likely due to factors occurring at this time last year. Qualified buyers may find more attractive opportunities now than during either of the recent tax credits. Interest rates should hold their ground around five percent, though the shift in the federal credit rating could change that that. Some indicators suggest improving conditions, but let’s see just how we’re faring locally. New Listings in the Hilton Head region decreased 30.9 percent to 346. Pending Sales were up 6.6 percent to 273. Inventory levels shrank 20.7 percent to 2,996 units, but consumers are still finding terrific opportunities. Strong affordability is partly driving purchase demand. Prices softened a bit. The Median Sales Price declined 22.3 percent to $213,750. Days on Market increased 11.3 percent to 140 days. Absorption rates improved as Months Supply of Inventory was down 27.8 percent to 12.5 months. Second quarter GDP growth was just 1.3 percent after a meager 0.4 percent gain in the first quarter. We added 117,000 new jobs in July, a stronger gain than expected after an embarrassing June. Even though a budget deal has been reached, several challenges persist. Changes to Fannie, Freddie and the mortgage interest deduction are still in play. As consumers absorb distressed inventory and labor market conditions improve, the wheels of recovery grind on.
+ 0.9%
- 22.3%
- 20.7%
Change in Closed Sales
Change in Median Sales Price
Change in Inventory
Market Overview New Listings Pending Sales Closed Sales Days On Market Until Sale Median Sales Price Average Sales Price Percent of List Price Received Housing Affordability Index Inventory of Homes for Sale Months Supply of Inventory
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
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All data from the Multiple Listing Service of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | 1
Market Overview Key market metrics for the current month and year-to-date figures.
Key Metrics
Historical Sparklines
New Listings 7-2008
7-2009
7-2010
7-2009
7-2010
7-2009
7-2010
7-2009
7-2010
7-2009
7-2010
7-2009
7-2010
7-2009
7-2010
7-2009
7-2010
7-2009
7-2010
7-2009
7-2010
3,243
- 13.8%
256
273
+ 6.6%
1,642
1,895
+ 15.4%
220
222
+ 0.9%
1,486
1,553
+ 4.5%
126
140
+ 11.3%
132
145
+ 10.0%
$275,145
$213,750
- 22.3%
$237,180
$225,000
- 5.1%
$401,054
$298,544
- 25.6%
$357,383
$325,816
- 8.8%
93.5%
93.6%
+ 0.1%
94.2%
93.6%
- 0.6%
109
139
+ 26.8%
124
133
+ 6.6%
3,779
2,996
- 20.7%
--
--
--
17.3
12.5
- 27.8%
--
--
--
7-2011
Months Supply of Homes for Sale 7-2008
3,760
7-2011
Inventory of Homes for Sale 7-2008
- 30.9%
7-2011
Housing Affordability Index 7-2008
346
7-2011
Percent of List Price Received 7-2008
501
7-2011
Average Sales Price 7-2008
+/–
7-2011
Median Sales Price 7-2008
YTD 2010 YTD 2011
7-2011
Days on Market Until Sale 7-2008
+/–
7-2011
Closed Sales 7-2008
7-2011
7-2011
Pending Sales 7-2008
7-2010
7-2011
All data from the Multiple Listing Service of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 2
New Listings A count of the properties that have been newly listed on the market in a given month.
July
Year To Date 3,769 481
3,760
501
3,243
346
2009
+4.2%
-30.9%
2010
2011
2009
-0.2%
-13.8%
2010
2011
Month
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
August
476
520
+9.2%
September
493
493
0.0%
October
451
400
-11.3%
November
409
337
-17.6%
December
350
304
-13.1%
January
454
424
-6.6%
February
515
499
-3.1%
March
675
568
-15.9%
April
617
552
-10.5%
May
482
446
-7.5%
June
516
408
-20.9%
July
501
346
-30.9%
12-Month Avg
495
441
-10.8%
Historical New Listing Activity 800
700
600
500
400
300
200 1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
All data from the Multiple Listing Service of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 3
Pending Sales A count of the properties on which contracts have been accepted in a given month.
July
Year To Date 1,895
273 256
1,642
194
2009
1,257
+32.0%
+6.6%
2010
2011
+30.6%
+15.4%
2010
2011
2009
Month
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
August
219
210
-4.1%
September
215
213
-0.9%
October
234
187
-20.1%
November
183
208
+13.7%
December
184
175
-4.9%
January
185
242
+30.8%
February
199
265
+33.2%
March
263
306
+16.3%
April
280
264
-5.7%
May
232
261
+12.5%
June
227
284
+25.1%
July
256
273
+6.6%
12-Month Avg
223
241
+7.9%
Historical Pending Sales Activity 350
300
250
200
150
100
50 1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
All data from the Multiple Listing Service of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 4
Closed Sales A count of the actual sales that have closed in a given month.
July
Year To Date 220
222 1,486
198
1,553
1,082
2009
+11.1%
+0.9%
2010
2011
+37.3%
+4.5%
2010
2011
2009
Month
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
August
204
215
+5.4%
September
193
221
+14.5%
October
231
162
-29.9%
November
214
182
-15.0%
December
218
220
+0.9%
January
172
183
+6.4%
February
156
176
+12.8%
March
213
226
+6.1%
April
252
270
+7.1%
May
212
261
+23.1%
June
261
215
-17.6%
July
220
222
+0.9%
12-Month Avg
212
213
+1.2%
Historical Closed Sales Activity 300
250
200
150
100
50 1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
All data from the Multiple Listing Service of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 5
Days on Market Until Sale Average number of days between when a property is listed and when an offer is accepted in a given month.
July
Year To Date 150 140
146
145 132
126
2009
-16.5%
+11.3%
2010
2011
-10.0%
+10.0%
2010
2011
2009
Month
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
August
151
126
-16.9%
September
162
121
-25.3%
October
153
144
-5.6%
November
157
141
-10.2%
December
138
136
-1.5%
January
131
133
+1.3%
February
145
156
+7.9%
March
140
143
+2.1%
April
128
152
+18.8%
May
113
133
+17.5%
June
141
158
+12.0%
July
126
140
+11.3%
12-Month Avg
148
150
+0.9%
Historical Days on Market Until Sale 165 155 145 135 125 115 105 95 1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
All data from the Multiple Listing Service of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 6
Median Sales Price Median price point for all closed sales, not accounting for seller concessions, in a given month.
July
Year To Date $275,145
$267,000
$255,000
$237,180 $213,750
2009
+7.9%
-22.3%
2010
2011
2009
$225,000
-11.2%
-5.1%
2010
2011
Month
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
August
$260,000
$214,000
-17.7%
September
$239,000
$218,393
-8.6%
October
$290,000
$240,000
-17.2%
November
$262,750
$228,750
-12.9%
December
$279,000
$250,000
-10.4%
January
$231,000
$250,000
+8.2%
February
$215,000
$188,200
-12.5%
March
$265,000
$210,000
-20.8%
April
$224,000
$270,000
+20.5%
May
$237,090
$250,000
+5.4%
June
$240,000
$233,000
-2.9%
July
$275,145
$213,750
-22.3%
12-Month Avg
$250,000
$227,500
-9.0%
Historical Median Sales Price $450,000
$400,000
$350,000
$300,000
$250,000
$200,000
$150,000 1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
All data from the Multiple Listing Service of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 7
Average Sales Price Average sales price for all closed sales, not accounting for seller concessions, in a given month.
July
Year To Date $375,892
$401,054
$357,383 $325,816
$361,904 $298,544
2009
+ 10.8%
- 25.6%
2010
2011
2009
- 4.9%
- 8.8%
2010
2011
Month
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
August
$467,169
$300,997
-35.6%
September
$344,085
$347,477
+1.0%
October
$394,110
$321,857
-18.3%
November
$361,187
$327,176
-9.4%
December
$375,862
$310,895
-17.3%
January
$329,121
$303,936
-7.7%
February
$395,687
$291,285
-26.4%
March
$338,453
$328,279
-3.0%
April
$352,849
$346,612
-1.8%
May
$364,834
$339,727
-6.9%
June
$330,841
$353,623
+6.9%
July
$401,054
$298,544
-25.6%
12-Month Avg
$370,277
$324,178
-12.5%
Historical Average Sales Price $650,000 $600,000 $550,000 $500,000 $450,000 $400,000 $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
All data from the Multiple Listing Service of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 8
Percent of List Price Received Percentage found when dividing a property’s sales price by its last list price, then taking the average for all properties sold in a given month, not accounting for seller concessions.
July
Year To Date
93.3%
2009
93.5%
93.6%
+0.2%
+0.1%
2010
2011
93.2%
94.2%
93.6%
+1.1%
-0.6%
2010
2011
2009
Month
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
August
93.9%
93.4%
-0.5%
September
93.3%
93.4%
+0.1%
October
93.7%
94.1%
+0.5%
November
93.0%
92.4%
-0.7%
December
93.2%
93.2%
+0.0%
January
93.5%
92.8%
-0.8%
February
94.3%
93.8%
-0.5%
March
93.8%
93.2%
-0.7%
April
94.2%
93.8%
-0.5%
May
94.9%
93.5%
-1.4%
June
94.7%
94.3%
-0.5%
July
93.5%
93.6%
+0.1%
12-Month Avg
93.8%
93.5%
-0.4%
Historical Percent of List Price Received 96%
95%
94%
93%
92%
91%
90% 1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
All data from the Multiple Listing Service of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 9
Housing Affordability Index This index measures housing affordability for the region. An index of 120 means the median household income was 120% of what is necessary to qualify for the median-priced home under prevailing interest rates. A higher number means greater affordability.
July
Year To Date 133 124
139 104 108
109
+0 9% +0.9% 2009
2010
+26 8% +26.8% 2011
+19 6% +19.6% 2009
2010
+6 6% +6.6% 2011
Month
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
August
109
138
+26.5%
September
118
136
+14.7%
October
100
126
+26.1%
November
111
132
+19.2%
December
101
120
+18.9%
January
122
117
-4.1%
February
130
149
+14.6%
March
108
136
+26.1%
April
125
111
-11.7%
May
119
120
+1.0%
June
121
129
+7.0%
July
109
139
+26.8%
12-Month Avg
114
129
+13.8%
Historical Housing Affordability Index 160
140
120
100
80
60 1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
All data from the Multiple Listing Service of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 10
Inventory of Homes for Sale The number of properties available for sale in active status at the end of a given month.
July 4,114 3,779 2,996
2009
-8.1%
-20.7%
2010
2011
Month
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
August
4,039
3,775
-6.5%
September
3,890
3,761
-3.3%
October
3,752
3,648
-2.8%
November
3,659
3,493
-4.5%
December
3,409
3,198
-6.2%
January
3,405
3,127
-8.2%
February
3,523
3,136
-11.0%
March
3,716
3,177
-14.5%
April
3,786
3,243
-14.3%
May
3,796
3,221
-15.1%
June
3,820
3,113
-18.5%
July
3,779
2,996
-20.7%
12-Month Avg
3,715
3,324
-10.5%
Historical Inventory of Homes for Sale 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
All data from the Multiple Listing Service of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 11
Months Supply of Inventory The inventory of homes for sale at the end of a given month, divided by the average monthly pending sales from the last 12 months.
July 26.1
17.3 12.5
2009
-33.5%
-27.8%
2010
2011
Month
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
August
25.1
16.9
-32.6%
September
23.6
16.9
-28.3%
October
22.2
16.4
-26.0%
November
20.5
16.0
-21.7%
December
18.5
14.5
-21.4%
January
17.8
14.2
-20.1%
February
18.1
14.0
-22.6%
March
18.6
13.8
-25.6%
April
18.3
13.9
-23.9%
May
17.7
13.9
-21.8%
June
17.7
13.3
-25.0%
July
17.3
12.5
-27.8%
12-Month Avg
19.6
14.7
-25.0%
Historical Months Supply of Inventory 30
25
20
15
10
5
0 1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
All data from the Multiple Listing Service of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 12