Monthly Indicators March 2015
Quick Facts
All expectations in 2015 are for a healthy and energetic selling season. National stories have been highlighting an increase in new construction sales and pending sales, but national stories are not always readily applied to the local scene. All the same, if ever there was a year to list or purchase a home, wider economic factors seem to indicate that this is the one. New Listings were up 8.0 percent to 664. Pending Sales increased 15.4 percent to 397. Inventory shrank 6.3 percent to 2,421 units. Prices were still soft as Median Sales Price was down 1.9 percent to $250,250. Days on Market decreased 4.2 percent to 113 days. Months Supply of Inventory was down 7.1 percent to 7.8 months, indicating that demand increased relative to supply. On average, more people are employed and making more money than they were at this time last year. The jobs picture, as a whole, looks promising. Employment drives home-buying activity, so it is ever critical to watch labor statistics as a key indicator for the residential real estate market. Coupled with the mostly positive jobs picture, it is widely expected that mortgage rates will remain as they are for at least the first two quarters of the year.
+ 21.6%
- 1.9%
- 6.3%
One-Year Change in Closed Sales
One-Year Change in Median Sales Price
One-Year Change in Months Supply
A research tool provided by the Hilton Head Association of REALTORS速 Percent changes are calculated using rounded figures.
Market Overview New Listings Pending Sales Closed Sales Days on Market Until Sale Median Sales Price Average Sales Price Percent of List Price Received Housing Affordability Index Inventory of Homes for Sale Months Supply of Inventory
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Current as of April 10, 2015. Data is Copyright 息 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS速 and South Carolina REALTORS速. Powered by 10K. | 1
Market Overview Key market metrics for the current month and year-to-date figures.
Historical Sparkbars
Key Metrics
03-2014
03-2015
Percent Change
New Listings
615
664
+ 8.0%
1,590
1,613
+ 1.4%
Pending Sales
344
397
+ 15.4%
890
1,034
+ 16.2%
Closed Sales
273
332
+ 21.6%
708
804
+ 13.6%
Days on Market
118
113
- 4.2%
111
115
+ 3.6%
Median Sales Price
$255,000
$250,250
- 1.9%
$240,000
$257,000
+ 7.1%
Average Sales Price
$343,270
$349,817
+ 1.9%
$320,597
$342,373
+ 6.8%
Pct. of List Price Received
95.1%
95.2%
+ 0.1%
95.1%
95.3%
+ 0.2%
Housing Affordability Index
93
99
+ 6.5%
98
96
- 2.0%
Inventory of Homes for Sale
2,585
2,421
- 6.3%
--
--
--
Months Supply of Inventory
8.4
7.8
- 7.1%
--
--
--
03-2013
03-2014
YTD 2014 YTD 2015
Percent Change
03-2015
Current as of April 10, 2015. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | 2
New Listings A count of the properties that have been newly listed on the market in a given month.
March
New Listings
Year to Date 664
1,588
615
1,590
1,613
565
2013
2014
2015
2013
2014
2015
+ 1.8%
+ 8.8%
+ 8.0%
+ 3.8%
+ 0.1%
+ 1.4%
Prior Year
Percent Change
+18.9%
April 2014
622
523
May 2014
442
451
-2.0%
June 2014
458
429
+6.8%
July 2014
437
449
-2.7%
August 2014
407
454
-10.4%
September 2014
473
435
+8.7%
October 2014
467
506
-7.7%
November 2014
323
375
-13.9%
December 2014
292
274
+6.6%
January 2015
469
494
-5.1%
February 2015
480
481
-0.2%
March 2015
664
615
+8.0%
12-Month Avg
461
457
+0.9%
Historical New Listings by Month 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 01-2005
01-2006
01-2007
01-2008
01-2009
01-2010
01-2011
01-2012
01-2013
01-2014
01-2015
Current as of April 10, 2015. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | 3
Pending Sales A count of the properties on which offers have been accepted in a given month.
March
Year to Date
Pending Sales
397
1,034 944
344
326
890
2013
2014
2015
2013
2014
2015
+ 0.9%
+ 5.5%
+ 15.4%
+ 13.7%
- 5.7%
+ 16.2%
Prior Year
Percent Change
April 2014
347
345
+0.6%
May 2014
333
349
-4.6%
June 2014
338
350
-3.4%
July 2014
318
375
-15.2%
August 2014
273
302
-9.6%
September 2014
288
298
-3.4%
October 2014
287
319
-10.0%
November 2014
258
268
-3.7%
December 2014
246
202
+21.8%
January 2015
318
251
+26.7%
February 2015
319
295
+8.1%
March 2015
397
344
+15.4%
12-Month Avg
310
308
+0.6%
Historical Pending Sales by Month 600
500
400
300
200
100 01-2005
01-2006
01-2007
01-2008
01-2009
01-2010
01-2011
01-2012
01-2013
01-2014
01-2015
Current as of April 10, 2015. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | 4
Closed Sales A count of the actual sales that closed in a given month.
March
Closed Sales
Year to Date 332
322
804
780 708
273
2013
2014
2015
2013
2014
2015
+ 12.6%
- 15.2%
+ 21.6%
+ 11.7%
- 9.2%
+ 13.6%
Prior Year
Percent Change
April 2014
323
308
+4.9%
May 2014
333
360
-7.5%
June 2014
354
354
0.0%
July 2014
345
351
-1.7%
August 2014
340
385
-11.7%
September 2014
273
305
-10.5%
October 2014
329
327
+0.6%
November 2014
253
286
-11.5%
December 2014
311
293
+6.1%
January 2015
227
243
-6.6%
February 2015
245
192
+27.6%
March 2015
332
273
+21.6%
12-Month Avg
305
306
-0.3%
Historical Closed Sales by Month 600
500
400
300
200
100
0 01-2005
01-2006
01-2007
01-2008
01-2009
01-2010
01-2011
01-2012
01-2013
01-2014
01-2015
Current as of April 10, 2015. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | 5
Days on Market Until Sale Average number of days between when a property is listed and when an offer is accepted in a given month.
March
Days on Market
Year to Date
121
124
118
113
111
115
2013
2014
2015
2013
2014
2015
- 9.7%
- 2.5%
- 4.2%
- 6.1%
- 10.5%
+ 3.6%
Prior Year
Percent Change
April 2014
103
123
-16.3%
May 2014
106
121
-12.4%
June 2014
107
119
-10.1%
July 2014
103
123
-16.3%
August 2014
126
111
+13.5%
September 2014
111
105
+5.7%
October 2014
115
115
0.0%
November 2014
119
122
-2.5%
December 2014
135
98
+37.8%
January 2015
115
105
+9.5%
February 2015
117
110
+6.4%
March 2015
113
118
-4.2%
12-Month Avg*
114
115
-0.9%
* Average Days on Market of all properties from April 2014 through March 2015. This is not the average of the individual figures above.
Historical Days on Market Until Sale by Month 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 01-2005
01-2006
01-2007
01-2008
01-2009
01-2010
01-2011
01-2012
01-2013
01-2014
01-2015
Current as of April 10, 2015. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | 6
Median Sales Price Point at which half of the sales sold for more and half sold for less, not accounting for seller concessions, in a given month.
March
Median Sales Price
Year to Date $255,000
$257,000
$250,250 $228,000
$223,500
$240,000
2013
2014
2015
2013
2014
2015
+ 18.4%
+ 14.1%
- 1.9%
+ 1.3%
+ 5.3%
+ 7.1%
Prior Year
Percent Change
+4.7%
April 2014
$273,465
$261,230
May 2014
$251,540
$274,220
-8.3%
June 2014
$283,245
$252,500
+12.2%
July 2014
$245,000
$298,708
-18.0%
August 2014
$255,458
$260,050
-1.8%
September 2014
$240,000
$233,765
+2.7%
October 2014
$280,000
$260,000
+7.7%
November 2014
$272,900
$258,500
+5.6%
December 2014
$275,000
$250,000
+10.0%
January 2015
$236,000
$218,000
+8.3%
February 2015
$264,500
$247,945
+6.7%
March 2015
$250,250
$255,000
-1.9%
12-Month Med*
$260,000
$256,000
+1.6%
* Median Sales Price of all properties from April 2014 through March 2015. This is not the median of the individual figures above.
Historical Median Sales Price by Month $500,000
$400,000
$300,000
$200,000
$100,000 01-2005
01-2006
01-2007
01-2008
01-2009
01-2010
01-2011
01-2012
01-2013
01-2014
01-2015
Current as of April 10, 2015. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | 7
Average Sales Price Average sales price for all closed sales, not accounting for seller concessions, in a given month.
March
Avg. Sales Price
Year to Date $343,270
$349,817
$302,486
$301,683
$320,597
$342,373
2013
2014
2015
2013
2014
2015
- 7.4%
+ 13.5%
+ 1.9%
- 7.4%
+ 6.3%
+ 6.8%
Prior Year
Percent Change
-4.4%
April 2014
$340,691
$356,420
May 2014
$324,120
$367,301
-11.8%
June 2014
$381,652
$333,902
+14.3%
July 2014
$324,040
$358,318
-9.6%
August 2014
$351,048
$345,493
+1.6%
September 2014
$364,815
$331,741
+10.0%
October 2014
$339,062
$329,183
+3.0%
November 2014
$361,257
$341,500
+5.8%
December 2014
$355,477
$340,932
+4.3%
January 2015
$334,359
$286,670
+16.6%
February 2015
$339,712
$331,298
+2.5%
March 2015
$349,817
$343,270
+1.9%
12-Month Avg*
$347,171
$338,836
+2.5%
* Avg. Sales Price of all properties from April 2014 through March 2015. This is not the average of the individual figures above.
Historical Average Sales Price by Month $600,000
$500,000
$400,000
$300,000
$200,000 01-2005
01-2006
01-2007
01-2008
01-2009
01-2010
01-2011
01-2012
01-2013
01-2014
01-2015
Current as of April 10, 2015. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | 8
Percent of List Price Received Percentage found when dividing a property’s sales price by its most recent list price, then taking the average for all properties sold in a given month, not accounting for seller concessions.
March
96.0%
Pct. of List Price Received
Year to Date
95.1%
95.2%
95.6%
95.1%
95.3%
2013
2014
2015
2013
2014
2015
+ 2.0%
- 0.9%
+ 0.1%
+ 1.6%
- 0.5%
+ 0.2%
Prior Year
Percent Change
+0.7%
April 2014
95.9%
95.2%
May 2014
94.9%
95.8%
-0.9%
June 2014
95.9%
95.3%
+0.6%
July 2014
95.6%
95.1%
+0.5%
August 2014
94.9%
95.5%
-0.6%
September 2014
95.2%
95.5%
-0.3%
October 2014
95.6%
95.7%
-0.1%
November 2014
95.5%
94.7%
+0.8%
December 2014
95.5%
94.9%
+0.6%
January 2015
95.3%
94.9%
+0.4%
February 2015
95.5%
95.5%
0.0%
March 2015
95.2%
95.1%
+0.1%
12-Month Avg*
95.4%
95.3%
+0.1%
* Average Pct. of List Price Received for all properties from April 2014 through March 2015. This is not the average of the individual figures above.
Historical Percent of List Price Received by Month 99.0% 98.0% 97.0% 96.0% 95.0% 94.0% 93.0% 92.0% 91.0% 90.0% 89.0% 01-2005
01-2006
01-2007
01-2008
01-2009
01-2010
01-2011
01-2012
01-2013
01-2014
01-2015
Current as of April 10, 2015. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | 9
Housing Affordability Index This index measures housing affordability for the region. An index of 120 means the median household income is 120% of what is necessary to qualify for the median-priced home under prevailing interest rates. A higher number means greater affordability.
March
Affordability Index
Year to Date
112
110 99
93
98
96
86
98
-12.2%
May 2014
96
90
+6.7%
June 2014
85
92
-7.6%
July 2014
98
79
+24.1%
95
89
+6.7%
100
101
-1.0%
October 2014
87
90
-3.3%
November 2014
89
96
-7.3%
December 2014
89
95
-6.3%
January 2015
106
106
0.0%
February 2015
95
95
0.0%
March 2015
99
93
+6.5%
12-Month Avg
94
94
+0.1%
September 2014
2013
2014
2015
2013
2014
2015
- 17.0%
+ 6.5%
+ 0.9%
- 10.9%
- 2.0%
Percent Change
April 2014
August 2014
- 13.8%
Prior Year
Historical Housing Affordability Index by Month 140
120
100
80
60
40 01-2005
01-2006
01-2007
01-2008
01-2009
01-2010
01-2011
01-2012
01-2013
01-2014
01-2015
Current as of April 10, 2015. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | 10
Inventory of Homes for Sale The number of properties available for sale in active status at the end of a given month.
Homes for Sale
March 2,657
2,585
2,421
- 6.3%
- 9.6% 2013
2014
2015
- 9.6%
- 2.7%
- 6.3%
Prior Year
Percent Change
April 2014
2,722
2,696
+1.0%
May 2014
2,686
2,638
+1.8%
June 2014
2,642
2,565
+3.0%
July 2014
2,615
2,480
+5.4%
August 2014
2,599
2,470
+5.2%
September 2014
2,626
2,425
+8.3%
October 2014
2,635
2,438
+8.1%
November 2014
2,547
2,386
+6.7%
December 2014
2,338
2,284
+2.4%
January 2015
2,294
2,369
-3.2%
February 2015
2,326
2,436
-4.5%
March 2015
2,421
2,585
-6.3%
12-Month Avg*
2,538
2,511
+1.1%
* Homes for Sale for all properties from April 2014 through March 2015. This is not the average of the individual figures above.
Historical Inventory of Homes for Sale by Month 5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0 01-2006
01-2007
01-2008
01-2009
01-2010
01-2011
01-2012
01-2013
01-2014
01-2015
Current as of April 10, 2015. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | 11
Months Supply of Inventory The inventory of homes for sale at the end of a given month, divided by the average monthly pending sales from the last 12 months.
Months Supply
March 9.0
8.4
7.8
2013
2014
2015
- 23.7%
- 6.7%
- 7.1%
Prior Year
Percent Change
-4.3%
April 2014
8.8
9.2
May 2014
8.7
8.9
-2.2%
June 2014
8.6
8.5
+1.2%
July 2014
8.7
8.0
+8.7%
August 2014
8.7
8.0
+8.7%
September 2014
8.8
7.8
+12.8%
October 2014
8.9
7.8
+14.1%
November 2014
8.6
7.6
+13.2%
December 2014
7.8
7.3
+6.8%
January 2015
7.6
7.7
-1.3%
February 2015
7.6
7.9
-3.8%
March 2015
7.8
8.4
-7.1%
12-Month Avg*
8.4
8.1
+3.7%
* Months Supply for all properties from April 2014 through March 2015. This is not the average of the individual figures above.
Historical Months Supply of Inventory by Month 30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0 01-2005
01-2006
01-2007
01-2008
01-2009
01-2010
01-2011
01-2012
01-2013
01-2014
01-2015
Current as of April 10, 2015. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | 12