Monthly Indicators May 2015
Quick Facts
The U.S. economy has been pretty even so far this year. Usually when new figures are released, they paint a pretty picture worthy of putting above the fireplace in that purchased new home. Recently, some numbers for the first quarter were adjusted to show a slight contraction in the economy. The initial response from Wall Street was unfavorable, but the correction itself is truly a mere blip. Nobody is predicting that the market will take a sudden turn. New Listings were up 13.1 percent to 500. Pending Sales increased 17.7 percent to 392. Inventory shrank 7.7 percent to 2,478 units. Prices moved higher as Median Sales Price was up 11.3 percent to $279,901. Days on Market increased 6.6 percent to 113 days. Months Supply of Inventory was down 9.2 percent to 7.9 months, indicating that demand increased relative to supply. One interesting effect of a weaker-than-expected economy is that the Federal Reserve does not seem ready to raise short-term interest rates during summer, as some had suggested might happen. New projections indicate that rates will remain the same until September at the earliest. The dominant storylines in housing are decidedly not negative these days. Instead, you're more likely to see top sales and luxury living highlighted than the woes of foreclosures and short sales.
+ 12.3%
+ 11.3%
- 7.7%
One-Year Change in Closed Sales
One-Year Change in Median Sales Price
One-Year Change in Months Supply
A research tool provided by the Hilton Head Association of REALTORS速 Percent changes are calculated using rounded figures.
Market Overview New Listings Pending Sales Closed Sales Days on Market Until Sale Median Sales Price Average Sales Price Percent of List Price Received Housing Affordability Index Inventory of Homes for Sale Months Supply of Inventory
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Current as of June 10, 2015. Data is Copyright 息 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS速 and South Carolina REALTORS速. Powered by 10K. | 1
Market Overview Key market metrics for the current month and year-to-date figures.
Historical Sparkbars
Key Metrics
05-2014
05-2015
Percent Change
New Listings
442
500
+ 13.1%
2,654
2,680
+ 1.0%
Pending Sales
333
392
+ 17.7%
1,570
1,773
+ 12.9%
Closed Sales
333
374
+ 12.3%
1,364
1,515
+ 11.1%
Days on Market
106
113
+ 6.6%
108
115
+ 6.5%
Median Sales Price
$251,540
$279,901
+ 11.3%
$248,000
$265,000
+ 6.9%
Average Sales Price
$324,120
$366,522
+ 13.1%
$326,216
$356,705
+ 9.3%
Pct. of List Price Received
94.9%
95.8%
+ 0.9%
95.3%
95.4%
+ 0.1%
Housing Affordability Index
96
90
- 6.3%
97
95
- 2.1%
Inventory of Homes for Sale
2,686
2,478
- 7.7%
--
--
--
Months Supply of Inventory
8.7
7.9
- 9.2%
--
--
--
05-2013
05-2014
YTD 2014 YTD 2015
Percent Change
05-2015
Current as of June 10, 2015. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | 2
New Listings A count of the properties that have been newly listed on the market in a given month.
May
New Listings
Year to Date 2,562
500 451
2,654
2,680
442
2013
2014
2015
2013
2014
2015
+ 0.7%
- 2.0%
+ 13.1%
+ 1.4%
+ 3.6%
+ 1.0%
Prior Year
Percent Change
+6.8%
June 2014
458
429
July 2014
437
449
-2.7%
August 2014
407
454
-10.4%
September 2014
473
435
+8.7%
October 2014
467
506
-7.7%
November 2014
323
375
-13.9%
December 2014
292
274
+6.6%
January 2015
469
494
-5.1%
February 2015
480
481
-0.2%
March 2015
673
615
+9.4%
April 2015
558
622
-10.3%
May 2015
500
442
+13.1%
12-Month Avg
461
465
-0.7%
Historical New Listings by Month 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 01-2005
01-2006
01-2007
01-2008
01-2009
01-2010
01-2011
01-2012
01-2013
01-2014
01-2015
Current as of June 10, 2015. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | 3
Pending Sales A count of the properties on which offers have been accepted in a given month.
May
Year to Date 392 349
1,638
333
Pending Sales
1,773 1,570
2013
2014
2015
2013
2014
2015
+ 11.1%
- 4.6%
+ 17.7%
+ 9.3%
- 4.2%
+ 12.9%
Prior Year
Percent Change
June 2014
337
350
-3.7%
July 2014
317
375
-15.5%
August 2014
273
302
-9.6%
September 2014
288
298
-3.4%
October 2014
287
319
-10.0%
November 2014
257
268
-4.1%
December 2014
244
202
+20.8%
January 2015
315
251
+25.5%
February 2015
313
295
+6.1%
March 2015
377
344
+9.6%
April 2015
376
347
+8.4%
May 2015
392
333
+17.7%
12-Month Avg
315
307
+2.5%
Historical Pending Sales by Month 600
500
400
300
200
100 01-2005
01-2006
01-2007
01-2008
01-2009
01-2010
01-2011
01-2012
01-2013
01-2014
01-2015
Current as of June 10, 2015. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | 4
Closed Sales A count of the actual sales that closed in a given month.
May
Closed Sales
Year to Date 374
360
1,448
333
1,515 1,364
2013
2014
2015
2013
2014
2015
+ 5.9%
- 7.5%
+ 12.3%
+ 9.7%
- 5.8%
+ 11.1%
Prior Year
Percent Change
0.0%
June 2014
354
354
July 2014
345
351
-1.7%
August 2014
340
385
-11.7%
September 2014
273
305
-10.5%
October 2014
329
327
+0.6%
November 2014
254
286
-11.2%
December 2014
311
293
+6.1%
January 2015
227
243
-6.6%
February 2015
245
192
+27.6%
March 2015
338
273
+23.8%
April 2015
331
323
+2.5%
May 2015
374
333
+12.3%
12-Month Avg
310
305
+1.5%
Historical Closed Sales by Month 600
500
400
300
200
100
0 01-2005
01-2006
01-2007
01-2008
01-2009
01-2010
01-2011
01-2012
01-2013
01-2014
01-2015
Current as of June 10, 2015. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | 5
Days on Market Until Sale Average number of days between when a property is listed and when an offer is accepted in a given month.
May
Days on Market
Year to Date 121
123
113
106
108
115
2013
2014
2015
2013
2014
2015
- 7.6%
- 12.4%
+ 6.6%
- 9.6%
- 12.2%
+ 6.5%
Prior Year
Percent Change
-10.1%
June 2014
107
119
July 2014
103
123
-16.3%
August 2014
126
111
+13.5%
September 2014
111
105
+5.7%
October 2014
115
115
0.0%
November 2014
120
122
-1.6%
December 2014
135
98
+37.8%
January 2015
115
105
+9.5%
February 2015
117
110
+6.4%
March 2015
114
118
-3.4%
April 2015
114
103
+10.7%
May 2015
113
106
+6.6%
12-Month Avg*
116
112
+3.6%
* Average Days on Market of all properties from June 2014 through May 2015. This is not the average of the individual figures above.
Historical Days on Market Until Sale by Month 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 01-2005
01-2006
01-2007
01-2008
01-2009
01-2010
01-2011
01-2012
01-2013
01-2014
01-2015
Current as of June 10, 2015. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | 6
Median Sales Price Point at which half of the sales sold for more and half sold for less, not accounting for seller concessions, in a given month.
May
Median Sales Price
Year to Date $279,901
$274,220
$265,000
$251,540
$245,000
$248,000
2013
2014
2015
2013
2014
2015
+ 18.5%
- 8.3%
+ 11.3%
+ 10.4%
+ 1.2%
+ 6.9%
Prior Year
Percent Change
June 2014
$283,245
$252,500
+12.2%
July 2014
$245,000
$298,708
-18.0%
August 2014
$255,458
$260,050
-1.8%
September 2014
$240,000
$233,765
+2.7%
October 2014
$280,000
$260,000
+7.7%
November 2014
$268,950
$258,500
+4.0%
December 2014
$275,000
$250,000
+10.0%
January 2015
$236,000
$218,000
+8.3%
February 2015
$264,500
$247,945
+6.7%
March 2015
$250,000
$255,000
-2.0%
April 2015
$279,900
$273,465
+2.4%
May 2015
$279,901
$251,540
+11.3%
12-Month Med*
$265,000
$255,000
+3.9%
* Median Sales Price of all properties from June 2014 through May 2015. This is not the median of the individual figures above.
Historical Median Sales Price by Month $500,000
$400,000
$300,000
$200,000
$100,000 01-2005
01-2006
01-2007
01-2008
01-2009
01-2010
01-2011
01-2012
01-2013
01-2014
01-2015
Current as of June 10, 2015. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | 7
Average Sales Price Average sales price for all closed sales, not accounting for seller concessions, in a given month.
May
Avg. Sales Price
Year to Date
$367,301
$366,522
$356,705 $329,640
$324,120
$326,216
2013
2014
2015
2013
2014
2015
+ 17.7%
- 11.8%
+ 13.1%
+ 1.4%
- 1.0%
+ 9.3%
Prior Year
Percent Change
+14.3%
June 2014
$381,652
$333,902
July 2014
$324,040
$358,318
-9.6%
August 2014
$351,048
$345,493
+1.6%
September 2014
$364,815
$331,741
+10.0%
October 2014
$339,062
$329,183
+3.0%
November 2014
$359,992
$341,500
+5.4%
December 2014
$355,477
$340,932
+4.3%
January 2015
$334,359
$286,670
+16.6%
February 2015
$339,712
$331,298
+2.5%
March 2015
$349,021
$343,270
+1.7%
April 2015
$381,362
$340,691
+11.9%
May 2015
$366,522
$324,120
+13.1%
12-Month Avg*
$353,922
$333,927
+6.0%
* Avg. Sales Price of all properties from June 2014 through May 2015. This is not the average of the individual figures above.
Historical Average Sales Price by Month $600,000
$500,000
$400,000
$300,000
$200,000 01-2005
01-2006
01-2007
01-2008
01-2009
01-2010
01-2011
01-2012
01-2013
01-2014
01-2015
Current as of June 10, 2015. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | 8
Percent of List Price Received Percentage found when dividing a property’s sales price by its most recent list price, then taking the average for all properties sold in a given month, not accounting for seller concessions.
May
Pct. of List Price Received
Year to Date
95.8%
95.8%
94.9%
95.6%
95.3%
95.4%
2013
2014
2015
2013
2014
2015
+ 0.9%
- 0.9%
+ 0.9%
+ 1.5%
- 0.3%
+ 0.1%
Prior Year
Percent Change
June 2014
95.9%
95.3%
+0.6%
July 2014
95.6%
95.1%
+0.5%
August 2014
94.9%
95.5%
-0.6%
September 2014
95.2%
95.5%
-0.3%
October 2014
95.6%
95.7%
-0.1%
November 2014
95.4%
94.7%
+0.7%
December 2014
95.5%
94.9%
+0.6%
January 2015
95.3%
94.9%
+0.4%
February 2015
95.5%
95.5%
0.0%
March 2015
95.2%
95.1%
+0.1%
April 2015
95.0%
95.9%
-0.9%
May 2015
95.8%
94.9%
+0.9%
12-Month Avg*
95.4%
95.3%
+0.1%
* Average Pct. of List Price Received for all properties from June 2014 through May 2015. This is not the average of the individual figures above.
Historical Percent of List Price Received by Month 99.0% 98.0% 97.0% 96.0% 95.0% 94.0% 93.0% 92.0% 91.0% 90.0% 89.0% 01-2005
01-2006
01-2007
01-2008
01-2009
01-2010
01-2011
01-2012
01-2013
01-2014
01-2015
Current as of June 10, 2015. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | 9
Housing Affordability Index This index measures housing affordability for the region. An index of 120 means the median household income is 120% of what is necessary to qualify for the median-priced home under prevailing interest rates. A higher number means greater affordability.
May
Affordability Index
Year to Date 101
96
90
90
97
95
2013
2014
2015
2013
2014
2015
+ 6.7%
- 6.3%
- 11.4%
- 4.0%
- 2.1%
Percent Change
June 2014
85
92
-7.6%
July 2014
98
79
+24.1%
August 2014
95
89
+6.7%
100
101
-1.0%
October 2014
87
90
-3.3%
November 2014
91
96
-5.2%
September 2014
89
95
-6.3%
January 2015
106
106
0.0%
February 2015
95
95
0.0%
March 2015
99
93
+6.5%
April 2015
89
86
+3.5%
May 2015
90
96
-6.3%
12-Month Avg
94
93
+0.5%
December 2014
- 17.4%
Prior Year
Historical Housing Affordability Index by Month 140
120
100
80
60
40 01-2005
01-2006
01-2007
01-2008
01-2009
01-2010
01-2011
01-2012
01-2013
01-2014
01-2015
Current as of June 10, 2015. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | 10
Inventory of Homes for Sale The number of properties available for sale in active status at the end of a given month.
Homes for Sale
May 2,686
2,638
2,478
- 7.7%
- 9.4% 2013
2014
2015
- 9.4%
+ 1.8%
- 7.7%
Prior Year
Percent Change
June 2014
2,643
2,565
+3.0%
July 2014
2,617
2,480
+5.5%
August 2014
2,601
2,470
+5.3%
September 2014
2,628
2,425
+8.4%
October 2014
2,637
2,438
+8.2%
November 2014
2,550
2,386
+6.9%
December 2014
2,343
2,284
+2.6%
January 2015
2,303
2,369
-2.8%
February 2015
2,344
2,436
-3.8%
March 2015
2,472
2,585
-4.4%
April 2015
2,514
2,722
-7.6%
May 2015
2,478
2,686
-7.7%
12-Month Avg*
2,511
2,704
-7.1%
* Homes for Sale for all properties from June 2014 through May 2015. This is not the average of the individual figures above.
Historical Inventory of Homes for Sale by Month 5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0 01-2006
01-2007
01-2008
01-2009
01-2010
01-2011
01-2012
01-2013
01-2014
01-2015
Current as of June 10, 2015. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | 11
Months Supply of Inventory The inventory of homes for sale at the end of a given month, divided by the average monthly pending sales from the last 12 months.
Months Supply
May 8.9
8.7
7.9
2013
2014
2015
- 19.8%
- 2.2%
- 9.2%
Prior Year
Percent Change
June 2014
8.6
8.5
+1.2%
July 2014
8.7
8.0
+8.7%
August 2014
8.7
8.0
+8.7%
September 2014
8.8
7.8
+12.8%
October 2014
8.9
7.8
+14.1%
November 2014
8.7
7.6
+14.5%
December 2014
7.9
7.3
+8.2%
January 2015
7.6
7.7
-1.3%
February 2015
7.7
7.9
-2.5%
March 2015
8.0
8.4
-4.8%
April 2015
8.1
8.8
-8.0%
May 2015
7.9
8.7
-9.2%
12-Month Avg*
8.3
8.1
+2.5%
* Months Supply for all properties from June 2014 through May 2015. This is not the average of the individual figures above.
Historical Months Supply of Inventory by Month 30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0 01-2005
01-2006
01-2007
01-2008
01-2009
01-2010
01-2011
01-2012
01-2013
01-2014
01-2015
Current as of June 10, 2015. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | 12