Monthly Indicators June 2015
Quick Facts
The curtain closes and the first half of 2015 is a finished act. Monthly market analysis helps nudge the real estate story forward for a final bow. The orchestra (consumers) and conductor (the REALTOR®) are thanked. Metropolitan operas, er, markets across the country continue to improve and further perform at peaks not seen in years. Bad memories from that one lousy show known as the Great Recession are pushed even further into the past. New Listings were up 3.3 percent to 473. Pending Sales increased 46.0 percent to 492. Inventory shrank 12.4 percent to 2,316 units. Prices moved higher as Median Sales Price was up 2.4 percent to $289,950. Days on Market increased 1.9 percent to 109 days. Months Supply of Inventory was down 17.4 percent to 7.1 months, indicating that demand increased relative to supply. Having six months of 2015 data in the books is great, but it is still just intermission at this halfway point of the year. Forecasting market trends can be as dicey as the weather, but with interest rates managing to remain low into the summer months, the outlook is promising, even if rates go up later in the year. Metrics like inventory and percent of list price received at sale are two of the better understudies to watch this year.
+ 16.7%
+ 2.4%
- 12.4%
One-Year Change in Closed Sales
One-Year Change in Median Sales Price
One-Year Change in Months Supply
A research tool provided by the Hilton Head Association of REALTORS® Percent changes are calculated using rounded figures.
Market Overview New Listings Pending Sales Closed Sales Days on Market Until Sale Median Sales Price Average Sales Price Percent of List Price Received Housing Affordability Index Inventory of Homes for Sale Months Supply of Inventory
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Current as of July 10, 2015. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | 1
Market Overview Key market metrics for the current month and year-to-date figures.
Historical Sparkbars
Key Metrics
06-2014
06-2015
Percent Change
New Listings
458
473
+ 3.3%
3,112
3,155
+ 1.4%
Pending Sales
337
492
+ 46.0%
1,907
2,247
+ 17.8%
Closed Sales
354
413
+ 16.7%
1,718
1,940
+ 12.9%
Days on Market
107
109
+ 1.9%
108
113
+ 4.6%
Median Sales Price
$283,245
$289,950
+ 2.4%
$255,000
$271,231
+ 6.4%
Average Sales Price
$381,652
$344,157
- 9.8%
$337,639
$353,554
+ 4.7%
Pct. of List Price Received
95.9%
95.9%
0.0%
95.4%
95.5%
+ 0.1%
Housing Affordability Index
85
85
0.0%
94
91
- 3.2%
Inventory of Homes for Sale
2,643
2,316
- 12.4%
--
--
--
Months Supply of Inventory
8.6
7.1
- 17.4%
--
--
--
06-2013
06-2014
YTD 2014 YTD 2015
Percent Change
06-2015
Current as of July 10, 2015. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | 2
New Listings A count of the properties that have been newly listed on the market in a given month.
June
New Listings
Year to Date 473
458
429
2,991
3,112
3,155
2013
2014
2015
2013
2014
2015
+ 3.1%
+ 6.8%
+ 3.3%
+ 1.6%
+ 4.0%
+ 1.4%
Prior Year
Percent Change
July 2014
437
449
-2.7%
August 2014
407
454
-10.4%
September 2014
473
435
+8.7%
October 2014
467
506
-7.7%
November 2014
323
375
-13.9%
December 2014
292
274
+6.6%
January 2015
469
494
-5.1%
February 2015
480
481
-0.2%
March 2015
673
615
+9.4%
April 2015
555
622
-10.8%
May 2015
505
442
+14.3%
June 2015
473
458
+3.3%
12-Month Avg
463
467
-0.9%
Historical New Listings by Month 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 01-2005
01-2006
01-2007
01-2008
01-2009
01-2010
01-2011
01-2012
01-2013
01-2014
01-2015
Current as of July 10, 2015. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | 3
Pending Sales A count of the properties on which offers have been accepted in a given month.
June
Year to Date
Pending Sales
2,247 492 350
1,988
1,907
337
2013
2014
2015
2013
2014
2015
+ 15.1%
- 3.7%
+ 46.0%
+ 10.3%
- 4.1%
+ 17.8%
Prior Year
Percent Change
July 2014
317
375
-15.5%
August 2014
273
302
-9.6%
September 2014
288
298
-3.4%
October 2014
287
319
-10.0%
November 2014
257
268
-4.1%
December 2014
243
202
+20.3%
January 2015
314
251
+25.1%
February 2015
311
295
+5.4%
March 2015
376
344
+9.3%
April 2015
370
347
+6.6%
May 2015
384
333
+15.3%
June 2015
492
337
+46.0%
12-Month Avg
326
306
+6.6%
Historical Pending Sales by Month 600
500
400
300
200
100 01-2005
01-2006
01-2007
01-2008
01-2009
01-2010
01-2011
01-2012
01-2013
01-2014
01-2015
Current as of July 10, 2015. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | 4
Closed Sales A count of the actual sales that closed in a given month.
June
Closed Sales
Year to Date 413 354
354
1,802
1,940 1,718
2013
2014
2015
2013
2014
2015
+ 0.9%
0.0%
+ 16.7%
+ 7.8%
- 4.7%
+ 12.9%
Prior Year
Percent Change
July 2014
345
351
-1.7%
August 2014
340
385
-11.7%
September 2014
273
305
-10.5%
October 2014
329
327
+0.6%
November 2014
254
286
-11.2%
December 2014
311
293
+6.1%
January 2015
227
243
-6.6%
February 2015
245
192
+27.6%
March 2015
339
273
+24.2%
April 2015
333
323
+3.1%
May 2015
383
333
+15.0%
June 2015
413
354
+16.7%
12-Month Avg
316
305
+3.5%
Historical Closed Sales by Month 600
500
400
300
200
100
0 01-2005
01-2006
01-2007
01-2008
01-2009
01-2010
01-2011
01-2012
01-2013
01-2014
01-2015
Current as of July 10, 2015. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | 5
Days on Market Until Sale Average number of days between when a property is listed and when an offer is accepted in a given month.
June
Days on Market
Year to Date 122
119 109
107
113
108
2013
2014
2015
2013
2014
2015
- 4.0%
- 10.1%
+ 1.9%
- 8.3%
- 11.5%
+ 4.6%
Prior Year
Percent Change
July 2014
103
123
-16.3%
August 2014
126
111
+13.5%
September 2014
111
105
+5.7%
October 2014
115
115
0.0%
November 2014
120
122
-1.6%
December 2014
135
98
+37.8%
January 2015
115
105
+9.5%
February 2015
117
110
+6.4%
March 2015
114
118
-3.4%
April 2015
114
103
+10.7%
May 2015
113
106
+6.6%
June 2015
109
107
+1.9%
12-Month Avg*
116
110
+5.5%
* Average Days on Market of all properties from July 2014 through June 2015. This is not the average of the individual figures above.
Historical Days on Market Until Sale by Month 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 01-2005
01-2006
01-2007
01-2008
01-2009
01-2010
01-2011
01-2012
01-2013
01-2014
01-2015
Current as of July 10, 2015. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | 6
Median Sales Price Point at which half of the sales sold for more and half sold for less, not accounting for seller concessions, in a given month.
June
Median Sales Price
Year to Date
$283,245
$289,950
$245,745
$255,000
$271,231
$252,500
2013
2014
2015
2013
2014
2015
+ 9.8%
+ 12.2%
+ 2.4%
+ 9.2%
+ 3.8%
+ 6.4%
Prior Year
Percent Change
-18.0%
July 2014
$245,000
$298,708
August 2014
$255,458
$260,050
-1.8%
September 2014
$240,000
$233,765
+2.7%
October 2014
$280,000
$260,000
+7.7%
November 2014
$268,950
$258,500
+4.0%
December 2014
$275,000
$250,000
+10.0%
January 2015
$236,000
$218,000
+8.3%
February 2015
$264,500
$247,945
+6.7%
March 2015
$250,000
$255,000
-2.0%
April 2015
$279,900
$273,465
+2.4%
May 2015
$280,000
$251,540
+11.3%
June 2015
$289,950
$283,245
+2.4%
12-Month Med*
$265,000
$259,000
+2.3%
* Median Sales Price of all properties from July 2014 through June 2015. This is not the median of the individual figures above.
Historical Median Sales Price by Month $500,000
$400,000
$300,000
$200,000
$100,000 01-2005
01-2006
01-2007
01-2008
01-2009
01-2010
01-2011
01-2012
01-2013
01-2014
01-2015
Current as of July 10, 2015. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | 7
Average Sales Price Average sales price for all closed sales, not accounting for seller concessions, in a given month.
June
Avg. Sales Price
Year to Date $381,652
$330,477
$337,639
$353,554
$344,157
$333,902
2013
2014
2015
2013
2014
2015
+ 7.5%
+ 14.3%
- 9.8%
+ 2.6%
+ 2.2%
+ 4.7%
Prior Year
Percent Change
-9.6%
July 2014
$324,040
$358,318
August 2014
$351,048
$345,493
+1.6%
September 2014
$364,815
$331,741
+10.0%
October 2014
$339,062
$329,183
+3.0%
November 2014
$359,992
$341,500
+5.4%
December 2014
$355,477
$340,932
+4.3%
January 2015
$334,359
$286,670
+16.6%
February 2015
$339,712
$331,298
+2.5%
March 2015
$348,420
$343,270
+1.5%
April 2015
$380,572
$340,691
+11.7%
May 2015
$364,945
$324,120
+12.6%
June 2015
$344,157
$381,652
-9.8%
12-Month Avg*
$350,550
$337,906
+3.7%
* Avg. Sales Price of all properties from July 2014 through June 2015. This is not the average of the individual figures above.
Historical Average Sales Price by Month $600,000
$500,000
$400,000
$300,000
$200,000 01-2005
01-2006
01-2007
01-2008
01-2009
01-2010
01-2011
01-2012
01-2013
01-2014
01-2015
Current as of July 10, 2015. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | 8
Percent of List Price Received Percentage found when dividing a property’s sales price by its most recent list price, then taking the average for all properties sold in a given month, not accounting for seller concessions.
June
95.3%
Pct. of List Price Received
Year to Date
95.9%
95.9%
95.5%
95.4%
95.5%
2013
2014
2015
2013
2014
2015
+ 0.4%
+ 0.6%
0.0%
+ 1.2%
- 0.1%
+ 0.1%
Prior Year
Percent Change
July 2014
95.6%
95.1%
+0.5%
August 2014
94.9%
95.5%
-0.6%
September 2014
95.2%
95.5%
-0.3%
October 2014
95.6%
95.7%
-0.1%
November 2014
95.4%
94.7%
+0.7%
December 2014
95.5%
94.9%
+0.6%
January 2015
95.3%
94.9%
+0.4%
February 2015
95.5%
95.5%
0.0%
March 2015
95.2%
95.1%
+0.1%
April 2015
95.1%
95.9%
-0.8%
May 2015
95.8%
94.9%
+0.9%
June 2015
95.9%
95.9%
0.0%
12-Month Avg*
95.4%
95.3%
+0.1%
* Average Pct. of List Price Received for all properties from July 2014 through June 2015. This is not the average of the individual figures above.
Historical Percent of List Price Received by Month 99.0% 98.0% 97.0% 96.0% 95.0% 94.0% 93.0% 92.0% 91.0% 90.0% 89.0% 01-2005
01-2006
01-2007
01-2008
01-2009
01-2010
01-2011
01-2012
01-2013
01-2014
01-2015
Current as of July 10, 2015. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | 9
Housing Affordability Index This index measures housing affordability for the region. An index of 120 means the median household income is 120% of what is necessary to qualify for the median-priced home under prevailing interest rates. A higher number means greater affordability.
June
Affordability Index
Year to Date
98
July 2014
95
92 85
94
85
2013
2014
2015
2013
2014
2015
- 16.4%
- 7.6%
0.0%
- 15.9%
- 1.1%
- 3.2%
Percent Change
79
+24.1%
95
89
+6.7%
100
101
-1.0%
October 2014
87
90
-3.3%
November 2014
91
96
-5.2%
December 2014
89
95
-6.3%
January 2015
106
106
0.0%
February 2015
95
95
0.0%
March 2015
99
93
+6.5%
April 2015
89
86
+3.5%
May 2015
89
96
-7.3%
June 2015
85
85
0.0%
12-Month Avg
94
93
+1.1%
August 2014
91
Prior Year
September 2014
Historical Housing Affordability Index by Month 140
120
100
80
60
40 01-2005
01-2006
01-2007
01-2008
01-2009
01-2010
01-2011
01-2012
01-2013
01-2014
01-2015
Current as of July 10, 2015. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | 10
Inventory of Homes for Sale The number of properties available for sale in active status at the end of a given month.
Homes for Sale
June 2,643
2,565
2,316
- 12.4%
- 9.0% 2013
2014
2015
- 9.0%
+ 3.0%
- 12.4%
Prior Year
Percent Change
July 2014
2,617
2,480
+5.5%
August 2014
2,601
2,470
+5.3%
September 2014
2,628
2,425
+8.4%
October 2014
2,637
2,438
+8.2%
November 2014
2,550
2,386
+6.9%
December 2014
2,344
2,284
+2.6%
January 2015
2,305
2,369
-2.7%
February 2015
2,348
2,436
-3.6%
March 2015
2,477
2,585
-4.2%
April 2015
2,523
2,722
-7.3%
May 2015
2,504
2,686
-6.8%
June 2015
2,316
2,643
-12.4%
12-Month Avg*
2,488
2,665
-6.6%
* Homes for Sale for all properties from July 2014 through June 2015. This is not the average of the individual figures above.
Historical Inventory of Homes for Sale by Month 5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0 01-2006
01-2007
01-2008
01-2009
01-2010
01-2011
01-2012
01-2013
01-2014
01-2015
Current as of July 10, 2015. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | 11
Months Supply of Inventory The inventory of homes for sale at the end of a given month, divided by the average monthly pending sales from the last 12 months.
Months Supply
June 8.6
8.5
7.1
2013
2014
2015
- 19.8%
+ 1.2%
- 17.4%
Prior Year
Percent Change
+8.7%
July 2014
8.7
8.0
August 2014
8.7
8.0
+8.7%
September 2014
8.8
7.8
+12.8%
October 2014
8.9
7.8
+14.1%
November 2014
8.7
7.6
+14.5%
December 2014
7.9
7.3
+8.2%
January 2015
7.6
7.7
-1.3%
February 2015
7.7
7.9
-2.5%
March 2015
8.1
8.4
-3.6%
April 2015
8.2
8.8
-6.8%
May 2015
8.0
8.7
-8.0%
June 2015
7.1
8.6
-17.4%
12-Month Avg*
8.2
8.1
+1.2%
* Months Supply for all properties from July 2014 through June 2015. This is not the average of the individual figures above.
Historical Months Supply of Inventory by Month 30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0 01-2005
01-2006
01-2007
01-2008
01-2009
01-2010
01-2011
01-2012
01-2013
01-2014
01-2015
Current as of July 10, 2015. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | 12