Monthly Indicators July 2015
Quick Facts
According to the U.S. Census, homeownership is at 63.4 percent for the second quarter of 2015, down 1.3 percent from the second quarter of 2014. This is the lowest rate of homeownership since 1967. To put that in greater context, homeownership peaked at 69.2 percent in 2004, and the 50-year average is 65.3 percent. Although the data may be indicating otherwise on a macro level, mortgage applications have kept REALTORS® busy through summer. New Listings were up 5.5 percent to 461. Pending Sales increased 53.0 percent to 485. Inventory shrank 16.5 percent to 2,185 units. Prices moved higher as Median Sales Price was up 12.2 percent to $275,000. Days on Market increased 1.0 percent to 104 days. Months Supply of Inventory was down 25.3 percent to 6.5 months, indicating that demand increased relative to supply. Ever since the Great Recession ended in about June 2009, the market has strengthened to once again become a cornerstone of the national economy. Better lending standards, lower oil prices and higher wages are a few of the catalysts for positive change. Many trends continue to reveal a stable housing market. Federal Reserve Chair, Janet Yellen, has predicted a fine-tuning of monetary policy by the end of the year. It is widely believed that interest rates will go up before the year is over, an indicator that the housing market is ready for such a move.
+ 20.3%
+ 12.2%
- 16.5%
One-Year Change in Closed Sales
One-Year Change in Median Sales Price
One-Year Change in Inventory
A research tool provided by the Hilton Head Association of REALTORS® Percent changes are calculated using rounded figures.
Market Overview New Listings Pending Sales Closed Sales Days on Market Until Sale Median Sales Price Average Sales Price Percent of List Price Received Housing Affordability Index Inventory of Homes for Sale Months Supply of Inventory
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Current as of August 10, 2015. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | 1
Market Overview Key market metrics for the current month and year-to-date figures.
Historical Sparkbars
Key Metrics
07-2014
07-2015
Percent Change
New Listings
437
461
+ 5.5%
3,548
3,617
+ 1.9%
Pending Sales
317
485
+ 53.0%
2,222
2,710
+ 22.0%
Closed Sales
345
415
+ 20.3%
2,063
2,365
+ 14.6%
Days on Market
103
104
+ 1.0%
107
112
+ 4.7%
Median Sales Price
$245,000
$275,000
+ 12.2%
$252,500
$273,000
+ 8.1%
Average Sales Price
$324,040
$345,357
+ 6.6%
$335,364
$351,858
+ 4.9%
Pct. of List Price Received
95.6%
96.2%
+ 0.6%
95.4%
95.6%
+ 0.2%
Housing Affordability Index
98
88
- 10.2%
95
89
- 6.3%
Inventory of Homes for Sale
2,618
2,185
- 16.5%
--
--
--
Months Supply of Inventory
8.7
6.5
- 25.3%
--
--
--
07-2013
07-2014
YTD 2014 YTD 2015
Percent Change
07-2015
Current as of August 10, 2015. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | 2
New Listings A count of the properties that have been newly listed on the market in a given month.
July
New Listings
Year to Date 449
461
437
3,440
3,548
3,617
2013
2014
2015
2013
2014
2015
+ 11.4%
- 2.7%
+ 5.5%
+ 2.8%
+ 3.1%
+ 1.9%
Prior Year
Percent Change
August 2014
407
454
-10.4%
September 2014
473
435
+8.7%
October 2014
467
506
-7.7%
November 2014
323
375
-13.9%
December 2014
292
274
+6.6%
January 2015
469
494
-5.1%
February 2015
480
481
-0.2%
March 2015
673
615
+9.4%
April 2015
555
622
-10.8%
May 2015
505
441
+14.5%
June 2015
474
458
+3.5%
July 2015
461
437
+5.5%
12-Month Avg
465
466
-0.2%
Historical New Listings by Month 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 01-2005
01-2006
01-2007
01-2008
01-2009
01-2010
01-2011
01-2012
01-2013
01-2014
01-2015
Current as of August 10, 2015. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | 3
Pending Sales A count of the properties on which offers have been accepted in a given month.
July
Year to Date
Pending Sales
2,710 485
2,363
2,222
375 317
2013
2014
2015
2013
2014
2015
+ 36.9%
- 15.5%
+ 53.0%
+ 13.8%
- 6.0%
+ 22.0%
Prior Year
Percent Change
-9.6%
August 2014
273
302
September 2014
289
298
-3.0%
October 2014
285
319
-10.7%
November 2014
257
268
-4.1%
December 2014
243
202
+20.3%
January 2015
314
251
+25.1%
February 2015
311
293
+6.1%
March 2015
376
344
+9.3%
April 2015
367
347
+5.8%
May 2015
381
333
+14.4%
June 2015
476
337
+41.2%
July 2015
485
317
+53.0%
12-Month Avg
338
301
+12.4%
Historical Pending Sales by Month 600
500
400
300
200
100 01-2005
01-2006
01-2007
01-2008
01-2009
01-2010
01-2011
01-2012
01-2013
01-2014
01-2015
Current as of August 10, 2015. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | 4
Closed Sales A count of the actual sales that closed in a given month.
July
Closed Sales
Year to Date 415 351
2,365 2,153
345
2,063
2013
2014
2015
2013
2014
2015
+ 23.2%
- 1.7%
+ 20.3%
+ 10.1%
- 4.2%
+ 14.6%
Prior Year
Percent Change
August 2014
340
385
-11.7%
September 2014
273
305
-10.5%
October 2014
329
327
+0.6%
November 2014
254
286
-11.2%
December 2014
311
293
+6.1%
January 2015
227
243
-6.6%
February 2015
245
192
+27.6%
March 2015
339
273
+24.2%
April 2015
334
323
+3.4%
May 2015
385
333
+15.6%
June 2015
420
354
+18.6%
July 2015
415
345
+20.3%
12-Month Avg
323
305
+5.8%
Historical Closed Sales by Month 600
500
400
300
200
100
0 01-2005
01-2006
01-2007
01-2008
01-2009
01-2010
01-2011
01-2012
01-2013
01-2014
01-2015
Current as of August 10, 2015. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | 5
Days on Market Until Sale Average number of days between when a property is listed and when an offer is accepted in a given month.
July
Days on Market
Year to Date 123
122 107
104
103
112
2013
2014
2015
2013
2014
2015
+ 0.8%
- 16.3%
+ 1.0%
- 7.6%
- 12.3%
+ 4.7%
Prior Year
Percent Change
August 2014
126
111
+13.5%
September 2014
111
105
+5.7%
October 2014
115
115
0.0%
November 2014
120
122
-1.6%
December 2014
135
98
+37.8%
January 2015
115
105
+9.5%
February 2015
117
110
+6.4%
March 2015
114
118
-3.4%
April 2015
114
103
+10.7%
May 2015
112
106
+5.7%
June 2015
110
107
+2.8%
July 2015
104
103
+1.0%
12-Month Avg*
115
109
+5.5%
* Average Days on Market of all properties from August 2014 through July 2015. This is not the average of the individual figures above.
Historical Days on Market Until Sale by Month 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 01-2005
01-2006
01-2007
01-2008
01-2009
01-2010
01-2011
01-2012
01-2013
01-2014
01-2015
Current as of August 10, 2015. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | 6
Median Sales Price Point at which half of the sales sold for more and half sold for less, not accounting for seller concessions, in a given month.
July
Median Sales Price
Year to Date $273,000
$298,708
$252,000
$275,000
$252,500
$245,000
2013
2014
2015
2013
2014
2015
+ 35.8%
- 18.0%
+ 12.2%
+ 12.2%
+ 0.2%
+ 8.1%
Prior Year
Percent Change
August 2014
$255,458
$260,050
-1.8%
September 2014
$240,000
$233,765
+2.7%
October 2014
$280,000
$260,000
+7.7%
November 2014
$268,950
$258,500
+4.0%
December 2014
$275,000
$250,000
+10.0%
January 2015
$236,000
$218,000
+8.3%
February 2015
$264,500
$247,945
+6.7%
March 2015
$250,000
$255,000
-2.0%
April 2015
$277,450
$273,465
+1.5%
May 2015
$279,801
$251,540
+11.2%
June 2015
$290,000
$283,245
+2.4%
July 2015
$275,000
$245,000
+12.2%
12-Month Med*
$269,630
$251,805
+7.1%
* Median Sales Price of all properties from August 2014 through July 2015. This is not the median of the individual figures above.
Historical Median Sales Price by Month $500,000
$400,000
$300,000
$200,000
$100,000 01-2005
01-2006
01-2007
01-2008
01-2009
01-2010
01-2011
01-2012
01-2013
01-2014
01-2015
Current as of August 10, 2015. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | 7
Average Sales Price Average sales price for all closed sales, not accounting for seller concessions, in a given month.
July
Avg. Sales Price
Year to Date
$358,318 $324,040
$345,357
$335,005
$335,364
$351,858
2013
2014
2015
2013
2014
2015
+ 26.1%
- 9.6%
+ 6.6%
+ 5.8%
+ 0.1%
+ 4.9%
Prior Year
Percent Change
August 2014
$351,048
$345,493
+1.6%
September 2014
$364,815
$331,741
+10.0%
October 2014
$339,062
$329,183
+3.0%
November 2014
$359,992
$341,500
+5.4%
December 2014
$355,477
$340,932
+4.3%
January 2015
$334,394
$286,670
+16.6%
February 2015
$339,738
$331,298
+2.5%
March 2015
$348,378
$343,270
+1.5%
April 2015
$379,961
$340,691
+11.5%
May 2015
$363,889
$324,120
+12.3%
June 2015
$344,203
$381,652
-9.8%
July 2015
$345,357
$324,040
+6.6%
12-Month Avg*
$352,193
$335,049
+5.1%
* Avg. Sales Price of all properties from August 2014 through July 2015. This is not the average of the individual figures above.
Historical Average Sales Price by Month $600,000
$500,000
$400,000
$300,000
$200,000 01-2005
01-2006
01-2007
01-2008
01-2009
01-2010
01-2011
01-2012
01-2013
01-2014
01-2015
Current as of August 10, 2015. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | 8
Percent of List Price Received Percentage found when dividing a property’s sales price by its most recent list price, then taking the average for all properties sold in a given month, not accounting for seller concessions.
July
Pct. of List Price Received
Year to Date
95.1%
96.2%
95.6%
95.4%
95.4%
95.6%
2013
2014
2015
2013
2014
2015
+ 0.3%
+ 0.5%
+ 0.6%
+ 1.1%
0.0%
+ 0.2%
Prior Year
Percent Change
August 2014
94.9%
95.5%
-0.6%
September 2014
95.2%
95.5%
-0.3%
October 2014
95.6%
95.7%
-0.1%
November 2014
95.4%
94.7%
+0.7%
December 2014
95.5%
94.9%
+0.6%
January 2015
95.3%
94.9%
+0.4%
February 2015
95.6%
95.5%
+0.1%
March 2015
95.2%
95.1%
+0.1%
April 2015
95.1%
95.9%
-0.8%
May 2015
95.8%
94.9%
+0.9%
June 2015
95.9%
95.9%
0.0%
July 2015
96.2%
95.6%
+0.6%
12-Month Avg*
95.5%
95.4%
+0.1%
* Average Pct. of List Price Received for all properties from August 2014 through July 2015. This is not the average of the individual figures above.
Historical Percent of List Price Received by Month 99.0% 98.0% 97.0% 96.0% 95.0% 94.0% 93.0% 92.0% 91.0% 90.0% 89.0% 01-2005
01-2006
01-2007
01-2008
01-2009
01-2010
01-2011
01-2012
01-2013
01-2014
01-2015
Current as of August 10, 2015. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | 9
Housing Affordability Index This index measures housing affordability for the region. An index of 120 means the median household income is 120% of what is necessary to qualify for the median-priced home under prevailing interest rates. A higher number means greater affordability.
July
Affordability Index
Year to Date
August 2014
93
95
98 88
2013
2014
2015
2013
2014
2015
- 32.5%
+ 24.1%
- 10.2%
- 18.4%
+ 2.2%
- 6.3%
95
89
+6.7%
100
101
-1.0%
87
90
-3.3%
November 2014
91
96
-5.2%
89
95
-6.3%
January 2015
106
106
0.0%
February 2015
95
95
0.0%
March 2015
99
93
+6.5%
April 2015
90
86
+4.7%
May 2015
90
96
-6.3%
June 2015
85
85
0.0%
July 2015
88
98
-10.2%
12-Month Avg
93
94
-1.3%
December 2014
79
Percent Change
October 2014
September 2014
89
Prior Year
Historical Housing Affordability Index by Month 140
120
100
80
60
40 01-2005
01-2006
01-2007
01-2008
01-2009
01-2010
01-2011
01-2012
01-2013
01-2014
01-2015
Current as of August 10, 2015. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | 10
Inventory of Homes for Sale The number of properties available for sale in active status at the end of a given month.
Homes for Sale
July 2,618
2,480
2,185
- 16.5%
- 10.2% 2013
2014
2015
- 10.2%
+ 5.6%
- 16.5%
Prior Year
Percent Change
August 2014
2,602
2,470
+5.3%
September 2014
2,629
2,425
+8.4%
October 2014
2,640
2,438
+8.3%
November 2014
2,553
2,386
+7.0%
December 2014
2,347
2,284
+2.8%
January 2015
2,308
2,369
-2.6%
February 2015
2,351
2,438
-3.6%
March 2015
2,480
2,587
-4.1%
April 2015
2,531
2,724
-7.1%
May 2015
2,517
2,687
-6.3%
June 2015
2,349
2,644
-11.2%
July 2015
2,185
2,618
-16.5%
12-Month Avg*
2,458
2,631
-6.6%
* Homes for Sale for all properties from August 2014 through July 2015. This is not the average of the individual figures above.
Historical Inventory of Homes for Sale by Month 5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0 01-2006
01-2007
01-2008
01-2009
01-2010
01-2011
01-2012
01-2013
01-2014
01-2015
Current as of August 10, 2015. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | 11
Months Supply of Inventory The inventory of homes for sale at the end of a given month, divided by the average monthly pending sales from the last 12 months.
Months Supply
July 8.7
8.0
6.5
2013
2014
2015
- 23.1%
+ 8.7%
- 25.3%
Prior Year
Percent Change
August 2014
8.7
8.0
+8.7%
September 2014
8.8
7.8
+12.8%
October 2014
9.0
7.8
+15.4%
November 2014
8.7
7.6
+14.5%
December 2014
7.9
7.3
+8.2%
January 2015
7.6
7.7
-1.3%
February 2015
7.7
8.0
-3.8%
March 2015
8.1
8.4
-3.6%
April 2015
8.2
8.8
-6.8%
May 2015
8.1
8.8
-8.0%
June 2015
7.2
8.6
-16.3%
July 2015
6.5
8.7
-25.3%
12-Month Avg*
8.0
8.1
-1.2%
* Months Supply for all properties from August 2014 through July 2015. This is not the average of the individual figures above.
Historical Months Supply of Inventory by Month 30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0 01-2005
01-2006
01-2007
01-2008
01-2009
01-2010
01-2011
01-2012
01-2013
01-2014
01-2015
Current as of August 10, 2015. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | 12