WELLBEING ISS TODAY
South Africa’s future is tied to ANC leadership and election battles The country could be on the cusp of major political change — but the ANC is likely to remain dominant. 27 January 2022. By Jakkie Cilliers. Republished from https://issafrica.org/iss-today/south-africas-future-is-tied-to-ancleadership-and-election-battles?utm_source=BenchmarkEmail&utm_campaign=ISS_Today&utm_medium=email.
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hat does South Africa’s future hold? Can it move away from corruption and political infighting and onto a path of economic growth and stability? At a 26 January roundtable with top political analysts and economists, the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) tested its latest country forecasts to the 2024 and 2029 national election results. South Africa is struggling with corruption, poor governance and
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mismanagement. The African National Congress (ANC) – the ruling party since 1994 – is in deep crisis. In the 2021 local government elections, support for the ANC fell below 50% for the first time, and prospects for Africa’s oldest liberation party are dim. Of the four trajectories discussed at the roundtable, the consensus was that the country’s most likely future – the Bafana Bafana scenario – holds. (The scenario was named after South Africa’s perennially underperforming national soccer team.)
SECURITY FOCUS AFRICA FEBRUARY 2022
On this path, the dominant ANC faction led by President Cyril Ramaphosa gains the upper hand in the December internal party elections, and he leads the party to national elections in 2024. That would set him up to remain ANC head to December 2027, when new leadership is elected ahead of the 2029 national polls. If past trends hold, Ramaphosa will step down early in 2028 to make way for a new ANC president anxious to get their hands on the levers of state power.
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