NEWS YEAR REVIEW
20 O 2
THE YEAR
2020 has been a year, to date, that has internationally given a number of low points without any meaningful high points (other than the release of vaccines and the demonstrated resilience of communities) to counter the lows. By Peter Bagshawe
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istorically, the final article of the year would have been a review of the year based on articles written and encapsulating the outgoing year from that perspective. Given the year that has been, this article will focus on three areas that, from my perspective, are of importance, with an overview of their significance. When I referred to low points, this is not limited to the Covid-19 pandemic (which will be referred to later) but encompasses natural disasters, civil and other conflicts and breaks in traditional methods of observing religious and other events. Economic hardships, the breakaway of the United Kingdom from the European Economic Union as well as the introduction of new norms and values into society have all played a role in marking 2020 as an extraordinary year. Internationally, economic decline, job losses and business closures resulting from Covid-19 were, and are the order of the day. Drought, runaway fires in the United States, Europe and
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Russia, flooding on a wide scale, extraordinary hurricane and tornado seasons in the Americas with widespread destruction point to shifting weather patterns. Conflicts between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Ethiopia in the Tigray region and ongoing internecine conflicts in Afghanistan with increased Taliban activity, Iraq and Somalia show armed conflicts continuing. The US Presidential election was also a conflict on a number of levels. Germany has gone into a Festive Season lockdown, numerous countries are struggling with the second wave of infections and have imposed restrictions, Sweden has appealed for assistance from its Nordic neighbours, while London and other regions of England have gone to tier 3 (the highest level) of restrictions. All of this has taken place more or less contemporaneously with a shift in restrictions in South Africa. On 9 December 2020 it was announced, by Minister of Health Zweli Mkhize, that statistical models confirmed that the
SECURITY FOCUS AFRICA NOVEMBER – DECEMBER 2020
second wave of Covid-19 infections had officially hit our country with hotspots identified as Gauteng, the Western Cape, the Eastern Cape and Kwa-Zulu Natal. Statistically the second wave is defined as the point where the total number of infections on a 7-day average exceeds 30% of the peak of the first wave of Covid-19 infections. On 14 December 2020 President Ramaphosa addressed South Africa and laid out a series of restrictions that will apply with effect from 15 December. More specifically, the Nelson Mandela Bay (Eastern Cape), Sarah Baartman District (Eastern Cape) and the Garden Route (Western Cape) were identified as hotspot localities. On the face of it and, using a reality check system, the South African economy, already struggling prior to and from the first lockdown, could not survive a second hard lockdown. The restrictions imposed seem to have been tempered by this reality. However the closure of beaches at the time of peak holiday season will have an impact on these areas. Emphasis
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