EDITOR’S COMMENT
A miracle It’s not only the younger generation to blame for the uptick in the Covid-19 infection rate. As the Christmas carols belt out over shoppers’ heads, people are buying presents and stocking up on booze and food, focusing on their travel plans and looking forward to spending time with loved ones whom they haven’t seen in months. I understand that, I really do. But, when they do gather, masks are going to drop down to their chins or on to the floor, social distancing is going to be forgotten and life for a while is going to be loads of fun for everyone. Until someone from that gathering falls ill, and then someone else, and so it will go – unless a miracle happens and people grow up en masse, immediately. If that doesn’t happen, the country’s infection rate is likely to either remain at dangerously high levels throughout the holiday season as people travel down the road, to the next suburb or cross-province - or infections are going to escalate. And if either of these scenarios occur, we can expect harder lockdowns - certainly in the hotspots which will obviously impact negatively on the national and local economies, driving up unemployment, shutting down businesses and playing havoc with the 2021 education calendar. The harder hit the economy, the more likely we are to be further downgraded by ratings agencies, which are watching South Africa closely for tangible, viable economic reform measures from the government.
Slight economic uptick Some light at the end of what has been a very dark tunnel is that South Africa’s
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economy has rebounded, albeit slightly. Statistics South Africa (Stats SA), however, warns that the recovery is off a very low base and that “despite the rebound, the economy is still 5,8 percent smaller than it was at the end of 2019”. It goes on to note that the main drivers of growth were the manufacturing, trade and mining sectors in the third quarter following the easing of lockdown restrictions. Interesting to note, “the manufacturing industry rose at an annualised rate of 210,2 per cent, mostly driven by increases in the production of basic metal products, petroleum, vehicles, and food and beverages.”1
Also expected in 2021…. Other events waiting for South Africans in 2021 include the National Road Traffic Amendment Bill, which is proposing new regulations around driving and alcohol consumption (as in zero tolerance), and new licence plates to allow for easier identification of vehicles in accidents or on the run from police, presumably. There is talk of a Covid-19 vaccine becoming available mid-year, too, which is hopeful for those with underlying health problems and the elderly in particular. And then there’s that hardy annual: load shedding is looming again, despite state-owned power utility Eskom’s procurement of renewable energy from private generating sources in the last few months.
Minimum wages If the majority of the representatives of the National Minimum Wage Commission get their way – and that seems to be the
way things are going – there will be a 4.5 per cent increase to R21.68 an hour next year, more than the current inflation rate. The Commission is also discussing including domestic and farm workers in the pool (they are currently excluded). According to GroundUp2, domestic workers presently earn 75 per cent of the minimum wage, while farm workers earn 90 per cent of the minimum wage. The article goes on to say that the majority of the commissioners want the minimum wage for farm workers to be “brought to parity with the national minimum wage in the 2021 adjustment (an effective increase of R350 per month)” and wages for domestic workers to be increased to 88 per cent over the same period “(approximately R19 per hour), and (then) to parity by 2022”. Lastly, expectations by some are that the price of petrol may drop marginally during December – and maybe even the interest rate. I would like to wish you and yours everything of the best over the holiday season, and to thank you for your support during this most challenging of times. We’ll meet back here in January 2021. Stay safe. Please.
Ingrid Olivier, Editor ingridolivier@idotwrite.co.za
1. Read the report here: http://www.statssa.gov. za/?p=13849 2. https://www.groundup.org.za/article/minimumwage-should-go-45-says-national-minimum-wagecommission/
SECURITY FOCUS AFRICA NOVEMBER – DECEMBER 2020
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