Climate Change

Climate change in New England is projected to increase temperatures, alter seasonal patterns, and bring more frequent extreme weather events. More frost-free days annually and warmer temperatures in both the summer and the winter have already extended the growing season. In Vermont, the growing season has increased by four days per decade for the past four decades. In the Northern Forest states (Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, and New York), the average temperature in the month of December has increased by 4.6 °F between the 1980s and the 2010s (Berry et al., 2019). Average annual precipitation in New England has increased by nine percent, or 3.7 inches, in the last 100 years (Huntington et al., 2009), but periods of drought have also increased, creating drier growing conditions in the summer.

Photo: Captured Winter

Climate Resiliency The adaptive capacity to anticipate, prepare for, and recover from climaterelated stressors and disturbances while maintaining function.

WARMING TEMPERATURES

Some projection models predict that annual temperatures in the Northeast could increase by 5.2 °F under the low emissions scenario or by 9.5 °F under the high emissions scenario by the end of the century (Hayhoe et al., 2007). Warming winter temperatures have broad implications for the region, including fewer days of frozen ground, changes in soil fungi composition, earlier leaf-out in the spring, longer growing seasons, and fewer pests dying in the winter cold.

Warmer winters allow for increases in insect populations, with implications for forest health due to pests like emerald ash borer, and hemlock woolly adelgid. Moose, an icon of the wilderness of New England, are experiencing increased mortality from ticks and other parasitic infections that flourish in warmer conditions.

As warm spring temperatures arrive earlier and earlier, plants respond with earlier blooming and leaf-out. This results in plants being more susceptible to cold snaps later in spring, especially

Future projections of increased temperature in Vermont. The climate of Vermont could be similar to that of Northwest Georgia by 2070 (Betts, 2017).

. fruit trees and other earlyblooming agricultural crops. Some native plants are not as quick to adapt to earlier warm temperatures, and are out-competed by invasive plant species that leaf out earlier (Maynard-Bean et al., 2020). Some species of plants are more adaptable and will have a higher likelihood of survival compared to other plants which may not be able to tolerate these changes as quickly (Vermont Fish & Wildlife Department 2015). Areas that are driven by seasonallydependent tourism will see continued unpredictability from climate change impacts. In the Northeast, winters have warmed three times faster than summers have, deeply affecting the ecosystem and human activities surrounding the winter season. Wintertime logging, which requires frozen ground for operation, will be reduced to fewer days per season. Increases in winter precipitation falling as rain rather than snow are already experienced, impacting the snowsport industry.

Increasing freeze-thaw and flooding events will create muddier conditions on trails and roads. Vermont Forests, Parks and Recreation monitors trail conditions on state lands and will close trails temporarily to outdoor enthusiasts if conditions are not suitable. With possible higher incidences of muddy trails throughout the year, different approaches to maintaining trail integrity and structure may need to be considered. Trail erosion and damage to forest flora and fauna may occur if muddy trails are not cared for properly.

Historically, Windsor County has averaged 65 days per year of days with a high temperature below freezing. Under a low emissions scenario, that may decrease to an average of 37 days with a maximum temperature below freezing by 2090. Under a high emissions scenario, that could decrease to just 23 days annually by 2090 (U.S. Climate Resilience Toolkit Climate Explorer,2021).

Regional Context

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Historical Changes to Timing of Snowmelt-Related Streamflow 1960-2014

National Climate Assessment report, 2019

Earlier snowmelt causes earlier increased stream-flow, with a cascading effect on stream ecology. The map above shows the shift to earlier spring stream-flow between 1960 and 2014 (National Climate Assessment, 2018).

PRECIPITATION INCREASE

By the year 2100, average annual precipitation is projected to increase by seven percent (low emissions scenario) to 14 percent (high emissions scenario), with the greatest increase falling in the winter. More winter precipitation is likely to fall as rain rather than snow. The number of days with snow on the ground could be halved by the end of the century in some parts of New England (Hayhoe et al. 2007).

Updates to building codes and design standards when building or replacing existing infrastructure can help adapt these structures and systems to increase climate resiliency by accounting for an increase in precipitation. Increased occurrence of intense precipitation events will likely cause greater risk of flooding in inland valleys where human settlement is often concentrated. Cities will suffer from high temperature extremes and reduced air quality. People living in rural areas with fewer routes between towns are particularly vulnerable to extreme events. Rural towns are easily isolated by damaged roadways and do not have the infrastructure systems in place that larger communities do. Tropical Storm Irene was an acute example of how a large precipitation event can wreak havoc on the rural communities of Vermont. With an anticipated increase of similar extreme weather events, the New England region will need to continue its effort to implement green infrastructure and upgrade existing flood infrastructure. The town of Plymouth has been working to upgrade culverts in order to better mitigate flooding.

ECOLOGICAL CONDITIONS & CURRENT PRACTICES

Farm & Wilderness landholdings support a diversity of forest communities, wetland features, and habitat types. The uniqueness of this area is the result of the underlying bedrock. The rich variety of plants, wildlife, and stunning landforms create a beautiful landscape enjoyed by many people who interact with the land. Farm & Wilderness’ current practices are outlined in each of the following sections.