The Week 2 n d
PUBLISHED BY
N o v e m n b e r
2 0 1 9
IN THIS ISSUE
THE WEEK THAT WAS
This week news cycle started with President Trump delivering a nationally televised address that American forces targeted Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the head of the Islamic State, in an operation in Syria. The news came a bit as a surprise following preceding events in the Syria region. The effect of this development is still to be seen. CorporateDispatch.com editor, Tonio Galea provides and analysis this in his weekly piece. The BREXIT stalemate reached a situation where the UK now will be going for a December elections. The developments on Brexit and the way they effect Europe are analysed by our Brussels correspondent Denise Grech. On a historical level, this week marks the 30th anniversary of a significant development in Europe's history, the fall of the Berlin Wall. The anniversary will be the subject of a commemorative forum organised by the Insights Institute while its legacy is analysed by Ci Consulta geopolitical consultant Matthew Bugeja. This week's news and developments can be seen in our CorporateDispatch.Com Week. We wish you a good read and view.
DIPLOMATIQUE. EXPERT www.corporatedispatch.pro
UK ELECTION WATCH
After several days of discussions, the EU has named 31 January 2020 as the new date for the UK's withdrawal from the bloc, despite Prime Minister Boris Johnson insisting there would be no further delay beyond 31 October. With his options running out, he has now pushed for a snap election to break the deadlock. Whatever happens, Johnson must achieve what his predecessor, Theresa May, found impossible: getting the deal through a bitterly divided House of Commons. The parliamentary rift, which has left the House at an impasse, illustrates the deep divide across much of the country since the UK chose to leave the EU. In the three years since the vote, British politicians have struggled to reach any sort of consensus on the most pressing issues surrounding Brexit. But political considerations aside, perhaps the biggest challenge facing the country is how to bridge the divide that has left the United Kingdom more disunited than ever. EPA-EFE/NEIL HALLÂ
The Story \\ #ELECTION
handout photo made available by the UK Parliament shows the British Prime Minister, Boris T H E S T O R Y \ \ Â AJohnson speaking during a debate of the Early Parliamentary General Election Bill in during an election debate in the House of Commons in London, Britain, 29 October 2019. EPA-EFE/JESSICA TAYLOR/UK PARLIAMENT HANDOU
The Story \\ #CAMPAIGN Opposition Labour Party Leader Jeremy Corbyn (R) kisses the hand of his Shadow Foreign T H E S T O R Y \ \ Â Britain's Spokesperson Emily Thornberry (R) at a media event in London, Britain, 31 October, 2019. The Labour Party launched its election campaign ahead of an expected general election on 12 December 2019. EPA-EFE/NEIL HALL
The Story \\ #FROWNS
Party leader, Nigel Farage speaks at a campaign launch event in Central London, 01 November T H E S T O R Y \ \ Â Brexit 2019. The UK general election will be held on the 12 October 2019. EPA-EFE/WILL OLIVER
The Story \\ #LAST ORDER
of the Parliament John Bercow as he departs the House of Commons Chamber for the final T H E S T O R Y \ \ Â Speaker time as the Speaker in London, Britain, 31 October 2019. Bercow has served as Speaker of the House of Commons since 2009. EPA-EFE/JESSICA TAYLOR / UK PARLIAMENT
EUROPE EXPLAINED www.corporatedispatch.eu
www.ciconsulta.com
B RUS S E L S
VI E W
P OI NT
BREXIT AND BERLAYMONT: BRUSSELS IN LIMBO Denise Grech
The last few months of 2019 were meant to be fast-paced, exciting times for the EU: a new Commission was meant to be set up and Brexit was supposed to go through.Instead, Brussels is stuck in limbo. The arrival of Ursula von der Leyen's Commission is delayed at least until the start of December or maybe even into the next year. Brexit, on the other hand, has been officially postponed until the end of January, or maybe even until… well, who knows anymore. French commissioner-designate Sylvie Goulard was was the last to be rejected earlier this month. Her hearing was strong on policy, but that didn’t count for much. Back in her country, she was being investigated into possible misuse of EU funds for payments to a parliamentary assistant, and about her highly paid side job with a U.S think tank. “How many French people earn €13,000 for making phone calls?”
BREXIT AND BERLAYMONT: BRUSSELS IN LIMBO
Virginie Joron, from the French far-right National Rally, had asked. Hungary's candidate, László Trócsányi, who was to oversee neighborhood policy and enlargement, and Romania's nominee, Rovana Plumb, intended as transport commissioner, were also shot down. Ursula von der Leyen has now formally nominated France's Thierry Breton and Hungary's Olivér Várhelyi as new nominees. The Romanians have obliged with a new nominee but it seems that they missed the mark, so it could be a while before we have a fully-fledged Commission. And that’s without thinking about whether Britain would need to have a Commissioner too. The delay has meant that some EU careers are on hold, particularly as some roles in Berlaymont’s headquarters have yet to be filled in. More importantly, it means that the Commission can’t launch initiatives on important issues such as climate change.
BREXIT AND BERLAYMONT: BRUSSELS IN LIMBO
I will keep my fingers crossed Donald Tusk
Speaking of Britain, the EU now has to take into account the political situation going on within the UK parliament and is now in limbo waiting to see how matters continue to unfold. Earlier
this
week,
former
Council
President
Donald
Tusk
announced that the EU has agreed for a three-month Brexit delay until January 31, 2020, in line with the UK’s request. “I will keep my fingers crossed for you,” he added.It seems that for now, most of those in the Brussels bubble are keeping their fingers crossed and hoping to get out of this deadlock.
The Story \\ #ONTARGET
screengrab from a handout military drone video made available by the US Defense Video and T H E S T O R Y \ \ Â AImagery Distribution System (DVIDS) shows a smoke cloud from the compound of ISIS Leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi after a precision-guided munition strike following the US forces raid, northwestern Syria, 26 October 2019 (Issued 30 October 2019). US Forces killed Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the founder and leader of ISIS, in northwest Syria on 26 October 2019. EPA-EFE/DVIDS
The Story \\ #CAPTURED
President Donald J. Trump announces that US special forces have killed ISIS leader Abu Bakr Al T H E S T O R Y \ \ US Baghdadi during a raid in Syria in the Diplomatic Room of the White House in Washington, DC, USA, 27 October 2019. Iraqi intelligence shared Baghdadi's location with the US led coalition ahead of the raid. Trump said that Baghdadi 'died whimpering, screaming and crying. They should see how he died. He didn’t die a hero. He died a coward.' EPA-EFE/JIM LO SCALZO
HAS
I S I S
S T OP P E D
B E E N DE AD?
Tonio Galea - Editor CorporateDispatch.Com
The order by U.S. President Donald Trump to withdraw troops supporting the Kurdish fighters in Syria has been his most criticized foreign policy decision so far. But with the killing of ISIS Leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi he also achieved his greatest triumph yet. The discussions and political implications surrounding this killing will be long debated. Same as has happened with his predecessor Barack Obama when Osama bin Laden was killed. Trump and Obama, however, are two different characters and so were Baghdadi and bin Laden.Bin Laden was well-known to American security officials. Coming from a prominent Saudi family, he made a name for himself during the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan in the 1980’s when he was fighting the Soviet forces with U.S. help. Baghdadi, on the other hand came out of nowhere. He was relatively unknown in what is considered to be his homeland, Iraq, and U.S. security forces were just as much unfamiliar with him when he took the helm of ISIS after the killing of his predecessors Abu Omar al-Baghdadi and Abu Musab al-Zarqawi.
HAS ISIS BEEN STOPPED DEAD?
ISIS and al-Qaeda are also two different organisations, although they are both terrorist organisations linked to fundamentalist Islamic teachings. While al-Qaeda is more political, ISIS is a creature of the Internet age and is more of an ideology. Therefore, analysts warn that even with Baghdadi’s removal, ISIS will not easily go away. It still operates in West Africa, in Libya, in the Egyptian Sinai Peninsula, in Afghanistan, in the Philippines and other territories. ISIS has become a sort of a diffused organisation with each local branch operating on its own. With the elimination of Baghdadi, the symbolic head was removed, but the organisation and its ideology is still there. Many countries have made it a main objective to thwart the group’s ideology and with the announcement of the unknown new leader - Abu Ibrahim al-Hashemi al-Qurashi - he will inherit the difficult task of leading a frayed organisation that has been reduced to sleeper cells scattered around the world.
HAS ISIS BEEN STOPPED DEAD?
Baghdadi's demise is undoubtedly a big blow for the terror group, which has faced increasing pressure in recent years, and went from ruling a territory estimated to be around the size of Great Britain to controlling only small strips of land in Syria. But ISIS is far from over, especially seeing the way it harnessed the internet to spread its ideology instigating lone wolf attacks.
YOUR DAILY NEWSFEED www.corporatedispatch.com
The Story \\ #PROTEST
carry placards, wave Lebanese flags, and shout anti-government slogans during a protest T H E S T O R Y \ \ Â Protesters in martyr square in downtown Beirut, Lebanon, 27 October 2019. Thousands continued to protest on the second week of demonstrations against proposals of tax hikes and state corruption, and calling for the resignation of the government. EPA-EFE/NABIL MOUNZER
The Story \\ #RESOLUTE
Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi presides over the House vote on a resolution formalizing the T H E S T O R Y \ \ Â US impeachment inquiry against US President Donald J. Trump on the House floor in the US Capitol in Washington, DC, USA, 31 October 2019. The resolution passed by 232-196. EPA-EFE/Shawn Thew
The Story \\ #EARTHMOVES
T H E S T O R Y \ \ Â An undated photo shows Kim Jong-un, chairman of the Workers' Party of Korea, chairman of the State Affairs Commission of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea and supreme commander of the armed forces of the DPRK, riding a white horse through the first snow of Paektu Mountain, in Ryanggang, North Korea. EPA-EFE/KCNA
The Story \\ #ENCOUNTERS
of the town of Lerona Vicario celebrate the Hanal Pixan, an ancestral celebration T H E S T O R Y \ \ Â Inhabitants dedicated to the faithful departed according to the belief of the Hanal Pixan Maya and that is a reunion between living beings and their loved ones who have advanced on their journey in the afterlife, in the state of Quintana Roo, Mexico, 31 October 2019. EPA-EFE/Alberto Flores
The Story \\ #SNOWFALL
An aerial photo made with a drone shows snow falling on a neighborhood on Halloween in Round
T H E S T O R Y \ \ Â Lake Heights, Illinois, USA, 31 October 2019. The early winter storm has dumped at least three inches (7.62cm) of snow and broken records dating back to October of 1923 for the Chicago, Illinois, USA area. EPA-EFE/TANNEN MAURY
The Story \\ #HOTMAIL boxes burn near the Ronald Reagan Library as the Easy Fire spreads near Simi Valley, north of T H E S T O R Y \ \ Â Letter Los Angeles, California, USA, 30 October 2019. EPA-EFE/ETIENNE LAURENT
The Story \\ #CARE
of Arran eats grass during a trackwork session at the Werribee International Horse Centre in T H E S T O R Y \ \ Â Prince Werribee, Melbourne, Australia, 31 October 2019. EPA-EFE/MICHAEL DODGE AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND OUT
The Story \\ #COLOURS
Jose Canastu arrive at the finish line during the cycling tour of Guatemala in Esquipulas Palo T H E S T O R Y \ \ Â Cyclist Gordo, Guatemala 29 October 2019. The Guatemalan Jose Canastuj, better known as 'El Torito', beat Colombia's George Tibaquira and won the seventh stage of the cycling tour to Guatemala, where Manuel
The Story \\ #SHADOWS picture taken with a drone showing bathers playing soccer in Leme beach, southern area of Rio de T H E S T O R Y \ \ Â AJaneiro, Brazil 29 October 2019. Temperatures of 38 degrees were recorded today in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. EPA-EFE/Antonio Lacerda
The Story \\ #SUNSET
THE STORY \\Â
A long exposure picture of sunset at Tagle beach in Santander, Spain, 28 October 2019. EPAEFE/Pedro Puente Hoyos
The Story \\ #BRUISED
injured man recieves medical attention after he was beaten by people that suspected him of being T H E S T O R Y \ \ Â An an undercover police officer, during a rally against police brutality in Hong Kong, China, 27 October 2019. Hong Kong has witnessed months of mass protests, which were originally triggered by a now withdrawn extradition bill, and have since turned into a wider pro-democracy movement. EPAEFE/JEROME FAVRE
The Story \\ #CHAMPION
THE STORY \\Â
British Lewis Hamilton of Mercedes team celebrates after winning the Mexican Grand Prix at the Hermanos Rodriguez Racetrack in Mexico City, Mexico, 27 October 2019. EPA-EFE/JOSE MENDEZ
The Story \\ #TRUST
Boikova (top) and Dmitrii Kozlovskii (bottom) of Russia compete in the Pairs Free T H E S T O R Y \ \ Â Aleksandra Program event at the Skate Canada International ISU Figure Skating Grand Prix in Kelowna, Canada, 26 October 2019. EPA-EFE/TODD KOROL
The Story \\ #POINTER
Pistons guard Langston Galloway (C) scores during the NBA basketball game between the T H E S T O R Y \ \ Â Detroit Detroit Pistons and the Chicago Bulls at the United Center in Chicago, Illinois, USA, 01 November 2019. EPA-EFE/TANNEN MAURY
The Story \\ #NEWDEAL
actress Jane Fonda (C) participates in a march and demonstration before being arrested by US T H E S T O R Y \ \ Â US Capitol Police on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC, USA, 01 November 2019. Jane Fonda has said she will participate with others in weekly demonstrations on Capitol Hill through January 2020 to call on lawmakers to address environmental issues such as climate change. EPA-EFE/MICHAEL REYNOLDS
The Story \\ #FLEXIBLE
Sakamoto of Japan competes in the Ladies Short Program at the Internationaux de France ISU T H E S T O R Y \ \ Â Kaori Figure Skating Grand Prix in Grenoble, France, 01 November 2019. EPA-EFE/SEBASTIEN NOGIER
The Story \\ #FOCUS
President Vladimir Putin attends a joint news conference with Turkish President Erdogan T H E S T O R Y \ \ Â Russian (not pictured) following Russian-Turkish talks in the Black sea resort of Sochi, Russia, 22 October 2019. Turkish President is on a working visit to Russia. EPA-EFE/SERGEI CHIRIKOV/POOL
The Story \\ #TEAMWORK
Retallick of New Zealand (C) misses the line out ball during the Rugby World Cup Bronze Final T H E S T O R Y \ \ Â Brodie match between New Zealand and Wales at the Tokyo Stadium, Tokyo, Japan, 01 November 2019. EPA-EFE/FRANCK ROBICHON
YOUR DAILY NEWSFEED www.corporatedispatch.com
DIPLOMATIQUE. EXPERT
CorporateDispatch PRO
YOUR WEEKLY INSIGHTS www.corporatedispatch.pro
THE SUN SETS ON THE LEGACY OF THE FALL OF THE BERLIN WALL
Matthew Bugeja - Senior GeoPolitics Analyst CiConsulta
The fall of the Berlin Wall on the 9th of November, 1989 was a defining moment in history. It heralded the fall of Communism, and helped to usher in a new period of peace and prosperity for Europe, and indeed the world. At least, in relative terms. Wars continued to rage in places like Somalia, where ethnic cleansing was carried out in places as far apart as Rwanda and Bosnia. Hunger and social unrest were still part of the human condition. Nevertheless, conflict between the great powers of the day, the United States and the Soviet Union, was no longer an imminent threat. The world operated under a certain set of rules and norms that were generally agreed upon by most, if not all, global actors. As they say, there was honor among thieves. Looking at the world today, closing in on 2020, we cannot say the same. The world has become far more complex than at any point since the fall of the Berlin wall. The end of the Cold War saw the US reign supreme over the global order, and up until the 10th of September, 2001, it seemed as though it could shape events in any corner of the world, at its will (or close to it). What has led us to this point?
THE SUN SETS ON THE LEGACY OF THE FALL OF THE BERLIN WALL Last week, I touched upon several elements that led to the weakening
of
America’s
grip
on
global
power
and
leadership. Today, I will go into a little bit more detail into my perspective on how and why US leadership of the global order is on life support, why we are entering into what is being called a “geopolitical recession”, and what that means for the world around us. The United States is no longer interested in leading the global order. That much is clear under the current Trump Administration. Trump’s “America First” mantra is as explicit as they come: the US will look after its own interests first, and generally leave the running of global affairs to others. Whilst his predecessor, Barack Obama, did not use this type of nationalist rhetoric, his inability to commit to a foreign policy vision within the context of America’s leading role in the world saw its credibility wane. But one could consider three events that weakened America’s image, perhaps irreparably. The 9/11 attacks in 2001 removed America’s aura of invincibility, which was precisely what Osama bin Laden wanted, and struck at core images of its economic and military might - the Twin Towers in New York City and the Pentagon in Washington.
THE SUN SETS ON THE LEGACY OF THE FALL OF THE BERLIN WALL The 2003 invasion of Iraq was controversial, fomented by fierce anti-American fervour in the Middle East and cynicism from its European allies. The United States’ image was tarnished. Finally, the Financial Crisis of 2008-09 highlighted greed and excess in the capitalist system - the same system which defeated the Soviet Union twenty years ago with the fall of the Berlin wall. Capitalism is now seen with some wariness in some quarters, with Europe looking to introduce stricter controls on financial markets as a result of the crisis, whilst the US has largely rolled back financial regulations introduced during Obama's tenure. Whilst Europe has sought to swing to the left on economic regulations, others have swung even further in that direction by adopting China’s state-backed capitalist model. In short, the government is in a position to direct industries to follow through on certain objectives. These industries would be expected to turn a profit, but the government provides them with financial resources and direction, whilst they may be asked to focus their production on key strategic objectives that would further enhance China’s power both at home and abroad. On this score, America’s influence is waning.
THE SUN SETS ON THE LEGACY OF THE FALL OF THE BERLIN WALL Economies go through periods of expansion, followed by periods of correction. Usually, an economic cycle lasts on average somewhere around 6-8 years, depending on the economy and the circumstances. In geopolitics, cycles last far, far longer. One could argue that the current geopolitical cycle traces its roots back to the end of the Second World War, where the US & the Soviet Union emerged as global superpowers, whereas the European nations were economically devastated and politically exhausted. But the fall of the Berlin wall in 1989 represented a revision of the calculus of global power dynamics. The US stood alone. Now, thirty years later, there are challenges to its power, both overt and less so, from nearly every continent on the planet. China and Russia have expanded their diplomatic ties and economic interests into South America and Africa. In the Middle East, the US is no longer seen as a major player in the Middle East. Should Democrats take back the White House for the next administration, it will still be difficult to reverse course on some of Trump’s policy pronouncements and actions. America is less trusted as an ally now than it has been in some time, if you believe in the polls.
THE SUN SETS ON THE LEGACY OF THE FALL OF THE BERLIN WALL I believe that when history is written some years from now, they will view the fall of the Berlin wall as being a bookend in history the start of unrivalled American dominance. The end of the Trump Administration, whenever that may be, be it in 2020 or 2024, and will represent the end of America as a geopolitical superpower. This does not mean that America’s military might, a measure of whether a country is a superpower or not, will be reduced. But its ability to influence others on the global stage is going away, and it will not be coming back. What does this mean for the future? A world in which global powers carve up spheres of influence in a more aggressive manner. Issues will be resolved on a regional, rather than a global level more often than not. The world is a dangerous place, and the Cold War
threatened
nuclear
conflict
which
could
have
ended
humanity as we know it. But we are entering into an 1800s Europelike struggle for great power supremacy, except with advanced technology. The fall of the Berlin Wall marked a turning point in global history. But the sun is now setting on the world it once heralded. Now it is a question of what the new world will look like.
YOUR DAILY NEWSFEED www.corporatedispatch.com
www.ciconsulta.com
The Week PUBLISHED BY
DESIGNED BY