FEATURED ARTICLE: Only 20 days in Toronto is needed MARKET STATISTICS: Weekly Change
ECONOMIC STATISTICS:
Canadian Employment Report – March The headlines for Canadian employment were certainly better than expected, but the details send a less upbeat message. Overall employment rose a solid 28,700 in March, following a 1,000 pullback in the prior month, and marking only the second positive reading in the past five months. Full-time jobs fell a like-sized 28,200 however. Meanwhile, parttime jobs rose 56,800. In an echo of that view, the unemployment rate held steady at 6.8% after a 2 tick rise in the prior month, although it is still down from a 7.0% rate a year ago. The participation and employment rates both nudged up 1 tick and even average hourly wages managed to gather a trace of steam. The final say on this mixed bag of a report goes to total hours worked, which dipped 0.3% m/m, but managed to eke out a 0.3% annualized gain for all of Q1. The bar was set pretty low for this employment release and it managed to clear it. While the details were mixed, any gain is better than the alternative. Overall, the point is that the labour market is grinding out very modest gains amid an economy hat is grinding out very modest growth.
Canadian Housing Starts – March Canadian housing starts rebounded to 189,700 annualized units in March, ahead of expectations. Multi-unit starts drove the rebound in the month, jumping to 61.2k from 41.k in February, while singledetached starts edged down again, to 52.2k. If there’s any question that the detached market faces supply issues (namely in Toronto and Vancouver), single-detached starts now sit at a 19-year low excluding the latest recession. Recent volatility aside, housing starts averaged 176k units for all of Q1, down from 184k in Q4. Over the past twelve months, starts ran at an average pace of 188.8k units. Looking past some harsh February weather, Canadian homebuilding activity remains stable and in-line with fundamentals. The oil price shock has yet to fully show up in these data, but if recent trends in the resale market are any guide, starts in the oil-producing provinces will be heading lower through 2015.
U.S. Institute for Supply Management Nonmanufacturing Index - March Judging by the nonmanufacturing ISM, underlying U.S. economic momentum remains pretty decent and it looks like some of those temperature factors which were weighing on Q1 should filter out in Q2.
Bank of Canada Business Outlook and Senior Loan Officer Surveys – Q1 The Bank of Canada’s latest quarterly Business Outlook Survey, conducted from February 17 to March 12, was broadly weaker again. The survey highlights the deepening shift in growth away from Western Canada toward manufacturing and exports in Central Canada. Future sales expectations (net percent of firms anticipating higher sales growth over the next year) fell a further 4 ppts to just +4%, a three three-year low, and following a 27-ppt dive in the prior survey. The outlook for investment fell again almost in lockstep with the outlook for sales, also down another 4 ppts to +4%, with the softness also emanating from the energy industry. Perhaps Governor Poloz had a glimpse of the early results when he fretted about weak Q1 growth – although it still looks to be a bit shy of the atrocious level.
It now only takes an average of just 20 days to sell a home in Toronto. Or, in other words, put up a sign and your house is sold. This latest comment comes amidst a research note on the latest numbers from the Toronto and Calgary markets, which are taking different paths in the wake of the oil price plunge. The average time in Toronto is down from an “already-low” 21 days, a year ago, while the timespan in Calgary, the heart of Canada’s oil industry, has climbed to almost 40 days from 28. The latest Toronto stats show the average prices jumped 10 percent in March from a year earlier, as the cost of detached houses climbed about 16 per cent to well over $1-million. Sales jumped 11 per cent from a year earlier, and new listings rose 5.5 per cent.
U.S. Retail Sales – March - Tuesday, April 14, 2015 at 8:30am
U.S. Producer Price Index – March - Tuesday, April 14, 2015 at 8:30am
U.S. Business Inventories – February - Tuesday, April 14, 2015 at 10:00am
CAN Manufacturing Sales & Orders – Feb. - Wednesday, April 15, 2015 at 9:00am
U.S. Housing Starts – March - Thursday, April 16, 2015 at 8:30am
Canadian Retail Sales – February - Friday, April 17, 2015 at 8:30am
Canadian Consumer Price Index – March - Friday, April 17, 2015 at 8:30am
U.S. Consumer Price Index – March - Friday, April 17, 2015 at 8:30am
Monday, April 13, 2015 at 1:30pm - Sector Meetings
Thursday, April 16, 2015 at 3:30pm - Team-Wide Meeting