Population Projection and Housing Demand

Population Projection and Housing Demand Methods II

Daniel Turner 34 S. 4th Avenue Highland Park, NJ 08904 daniel.turner86@gmail.com

INTRODUCTION Suffolk County is the easternmost county in New York State, comprising 1,000 square miles of the eastern two-­‐thirds of Long Island.i The Algonquin tribe was native to the land that later became known as Suffolk County before the first European, a Dutchman named Adrian Block, made landfall in 1614.ii From 1614 until the 1930’s, the primary industries of Suffolk County were farming, fishing and shipbuilding.iii In the 1930’s, however, the County became home to many large-­‐scale U.S. defense and aerospace industries.iv It was during this time that the population of Suffolk County began to experience a notable rise. As indicated in TABLE 1, the population of Suffolk County grew from 110,246 in 1920 to 197,355 in 1940, a 79% rise in two years.

Between 1940 and 1970, Suffolk County experienced dramatic population growth. New highways, such as the Long Island Expressway (est. 1958), along with mass-­‐produced housing developmentsv spurred this growth. As indicated in TABLE 1, the population of Suffolk County grew from 197,355 in 1940 to 1,124,950 in 1970, an astonishing 470.013% rise over this thirty-­‐year period. Since this time period, the population growth in Suffolk County has leveled off, growing by only 32.748% from 1970 to 2010 and by only 5.212% between 2000 and 2010.

Table 1: Historical Population Data

Year 1790 1800 1810 1820 1830 1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Population

Change Number Percent

16,400 19,735 21,113 23,936 26,780 32,469 36,922 43,275 46,924 52,888 62,491 77,582 96,138 110,246 161,055 197,355 276,129 666,784 1,124,950 1,284,231 1,321,864 1,419,369 1,493,350

N/A 3,335 1,378 2,823 2,844 5,689 4,453 6,353 3,649 5,964 9,603 15,091 18,556 14,108 50,809 36,300 78,774 390,655 458,166 159,281 37,633 97,505 73,981

N/A 20.335% 6.983% 13.371% 11.882% 21.243% 13.715% 17.207% 8.432% 12.710% 18.157% 24.149% 23.918% 14.675% 46.087% 22.539% 39.915% 141.476% 68.713% 14.159% 2.930% 7.376% 5.212%

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Source: U.S. Census Bureau

The following report analyzes the demographic changes that occurred in Suffolk County between 1940 and 2000. Using historical data and trends, several models have been employed to attempt to project the Suffolk County population in 2010 as well as housing demand in 2010.

I. AGE–SEX PYRAMIDS The following Age–Sex Pyramids graphically represent the population of a given year by 5-­‐ year age intervals, separated by sex. These pyramids are a useful tool for representing and understanding demographic changes over time. Included here are three Age–Sex Pyramids for the years 1950, 1970, and 2000, along with analyses of their significance. (APPENDIX 1 contains Age–Sex Pyramids for all years from 1940 to 2010, with the exception of 1960 because of the lack of data).

1950 Population The Age–Sex Pyramid for 1950 (see Figure 1 above) reflects the demographic impact that resulted from large-­‐scale migration of residents to Suffolk County after World War II. The largest adult population cohorts in 1950 were those between 25 and 45 years old, making up more than 30% of the total population. The largest cohort overall, however, was

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persons under 5 years of age. This cohort totaled 25,275 people, or 9% of the total population. This group of children is part of the generation known as “baby boomers,” defined by the U.S. Census Bureau as people born from mid-­‐1946 to 1964.vi In many ways, Suffolk County epitomized the suburban growth that occurred in the United States after World War II as the population exploded with new young families. The year 1950 represents the early stage of population explosion and residential development in Suffolk County that began to wane by 1970. A look at the 1970 Age–Sex Pyramid offers insight into the nature of this growth.

1970 Population Between 1950 and 1970, Suffolk County’s population grew by 848,821 people, or 307.4%.

This growth occurred rapidly and without comprehensive planning.vii The political landscape of Suffolk County before this rapid development reflected a much more rural and dispersed population distribution. A variety of municipalities and school districts existed before the large-­‐scale growth, and the lack of cohesion between these entities might be looked at as a potential cause of the sprawling style of development that occurred between 1950 and 1970 and still continues to a degree today.

A look at the 1970 Age–Sex Pyramid (see Figure 2, above) reflects a more balanced distribution than seen in 1950 but is still profoundly affected by the post-­‐war baby boom.

Children (those 19 years old and younger) made up 42% of the total population of Suffolk

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County in 1970. The largest cohorts of adults were still the 25-­‐ to 45-­‐year-­‐old cohorts observed in 1950. The main difference between the years 1950 and 1970, however, is the overall number of residents.

Population growth, unsurprisingly, coincided with a housing boom. Between 1950 and 1970 more than 220,000 individual detached homes were built in Suffolk County.viii This enormous boom in housing construction, along with the retail sprawl that accompanied it, dramatically altered the landscape of the county, decimating the agricultural landscape and contributing to the decline of pre-­‐WWII downtowns.ix The land use changes that occurred between the period of 1950 and 1970 are very important in understanding the demographic changes in the county since that period as well as the planning challenges that that face the county moving forward.

2000 Population By the year 2000, population growth in Suffolk County had slowed dramatically compared to the post-­‐war period, growing only 7.376% over the previous decade. The Age–Sex Pyramid for 2000 (see FIGURE 3, above) reflects this slowed growth through noticeable demographic shifts, namely the aging of the population. Children under 19 years old made up only 28.36% of the total population in 2000 compared to 42.42% in 1970. Along those lines, 66.31% of the population of Suffolk County was over the age of 25 in 2000 compared

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with 51.73% in 1970. For those 50 years and older, the numbers show a similar trend with 27.89% of the population belonging to this age group in 2000 compared with 19.18% in 1970. As seen in FIGURE 4, below, the Suffolk County population distribution of those over 50 years old in 2000 closely mirrors that of the United State overall. This might be interpreted as a reflection of how representative the post-­‐WWII baby boom in Suffolk County was representative of the United States overall.

II. TREND EXTRAPOLATION PROJECTIONS Trend extrapolation is a process that attempts to predict a future condition based on an aggregate of historical data. For the purposes of this report, multiple trend extrapolation models were used based only on historical population data over time. In order to help test the accuracy of the models, observed population data was used only up until the year 2000.

The various models were used to project population to 2010. The projected population number could then be compared against the actual observed 2010 population.

Seven types of trend extrapolation methods were used to project Suffolk County’s 2010 population: linear, exponential, logarithmic, polynomial, power, moving average, and log-­‐ modified exponential. Each model makes different assumptions about growth. The linear model assumes growth based on constant increments, the exponential model assumes a constant exponential growth rate, the logarithmic model assumes growth based on a constant ratio of logarithms of growth increments, the polynomial and power models

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assumes a constant rate of change and the moving average model makes an assumption based on a given number of prior periods (in this case two). Finally, the log-­‐modified exponential model assumes a linearized exponential growth rate but is limited by an asymptotic carrying capacity. The carrying capacity is used in order to acknowledge real world limits to growth such as the availability of space, resources, housing, and other growth limiting factors.

Two statistical measures are used in this report to test the strength of each model. The first is the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). This measures error based on the difference between the projected and actual data. This number ranges from 0 to 1 but is presented here as a percentage. A model with more error will display a higher percentage.

The second measure is the R2 statistic. This is a measure of explained variation that also ranges from 0 to 1. In this case, a number closer to 1 is ideal.

The following table displays the projected populations of the seven models used as well as the two statistical measures discussed above: Table 2: Statistical Analysis of Trend Extrapolation Models

Log Modified Exponential

Year

Actual Population Linear

Exponential Logarithmic Polynomial Power

1940

197,355

215,589

253,829

212,084

80,597

177,221

Moving Average -­‐

1950

276,129

443,295

359,003

442,906

443,296

392,990

236,742

472,569

1960

666,784

671,001

507,756

672,548

751,997

626,181

471,457

821,175

1970

1,124,950

898,707

718,145

901,021

1,006,702

871,460

895,867

1,061,990

1980

1,284,231

1,126,413

1,015,709

1,128,338

1,207,409

1,126,137

1,204,591

1,228,345

1990

1,321,864

1,354,119

1,436,569

1,354,509

1,354,120

1,388,565

1,303,048

1,343,262

2000

1,419,639

1,581,826

2,031,812

1,579,546

1,446,833

1,657,616

1,370,752

1,422,646

2010

1,493,350

1,809,532

2,873,694

1,803,461

1,485,550

1,932,473

1,419,639

1,477,485

R2

0.8996

0.8490

0.9184

0.9555

0.9372

0.9671

MAPE

16.668%

27.336%

16.358%

21.904%

16.466%

24.999%

31.761%

-­‐32,075

A close observation of TABLE 2 shows that the two statistical measures do not always align when it comes to measuring accuracy of the model. For example, the log-­‐modified exponential model has the best R2 at 0.9671 but also the worst MAPE at 31.761%. This is because MAPE measures error for each data point, whereas R2 measures the closeness of the curve overall.

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Linear Model The linear trend extrapolation model is displayed in FIGURE 5, above. This model has the third best MAPE (16.668) but the second worst R2. These statistical measures do not indicate anything outstanding about this model, and a look at FIGURE 5 seems to indicate that the population growth in Suffolk County is not of a linear nature. This model compounds the rapid population rise of the mid-­‐twentieth century with the much slower population growth of recent years and ends up overestimating future population growth by a wide margin (predicting 1,809,532 people in 2010 to the actual 1,493,350). The inability to adjust to more recent trends makes this a poor model to use to predict future growth in Suffolk County

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Exponential Model The exponential model for trend extrapolation is displayed in FIGURE 6, above. This model featured the worst R2 of the seven (0.8490) as well as the second worst MAPE (27.336%).

This model compounds the problems of the linear model by not only failing to adjust to recent trends but also by assuming that growth will occur exponentially ad infinitum. This causes the model to dramatically overestimate future population growth, predicting a 2010 population of 2,873,532 people. The exponential model appears to be incongruous with a place like Suffolk County because of the real-­‐life significant constraints to growth that exist in the region.

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Logarithmic The logarithmic trend extrapolation model is shown in FIGURE 7, above. This model demonstrates the highest MAPE of the seven models at 16.358% and one of the better R2 at 0.9184. However, a visual analysis of the curve in FIGURE 7 indicates that this model could not properly predict future conditions. Similar to the other models discussed above, this model does not properly adjust to recent trends and continues to project population growth at a high rate. This led the model to predict a 2010 population of 1,803,461 compared with the actual 2010 population of 1,493,350. This population projection was very similar to that of the linear model, which predicted a 2010 population of 1,809,532.

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Polynomial Model The polynomial model (displayed in FIGURE 8, above) has much more visual appeal than the other models discussed thus far. This model seems to more accurately reflect a slower population growth in recent years. Indeed, the polynomial model projected a 2010 population of 1,485,550, which was the closest of all the models to the actual 2010 population of 1,493,350. The R2 for this model was indeed the second highest of all the models at 0.9555, but the MAPE was in the middle of the pack at 21.904%. It appears from these measures that this model might be one of the better predictors of future population growth in Suffolk County.

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Power Model At first glance, the power model appears to have the same problems seen with the linear and logarithmic models (see FIGURE 9 above1). That is, it projects a growth rate that is more in line with past trends than future realities. Indeed, this model predicts a much higher population in 2010 (1,932,473) than the actual population (1,493,350). However, the statistical measures tell a different story. The MAPE for this model is 16.466% (the second lowest) and the R2 is 0.9372 (in the middle of the pack). The problem with this model, as well as the linear and logarithmic models, is that it uses a more constant rate of growth than actually occurred; therefore, it both underestimates and overestimates population at various points in the curve. As can be seen in the FIGURE 9, the power model estimates a population in 1970 that is more than 253,000 people fewer than the actual population. In 2000 the model estimates a population that is nearly 238,000 people more than the actual population in that year.

1 Actual years are not displayed in this model due to a statistical problem caused by their inclusion. In their

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Moving Average Model The moving average trend extrapolation model is displayed in FIGURE 10, above. Visually, this model has great appeal relative to the actual population observed over time. This model might seem to reflect more recent population trends better than most of the previous models because that is what this model is built to do. The moving average model uses an average of a given number of prior periods in order to determine a future estimate.

In this case, two periods were used to predict future a future estimate. In other words, in order to predict the population of 1960, the model used an average of the populations of 1940 and 1950. Despite this level of connection to the observed data, this model produced a very high MAPE of nearly 25%. Because of the nature of this model, no R2 was found. This model might be more useful for predicting population in the near future than in the distant future because of its reliance on observed data. In fact, the moving average model predicted a 2010 population in Suffolk County of 1,419,639, which is relatively close to the observed population and, interestingly enough, exactly the same as the 2000 population.

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Log-­‐Modified Exponential Model The final trend extrapolation model used was the log-­‐modified exponential model (shown in FIGURE 11, above). The change in this model over the exponential model is the addition of an asymptotic carrying capacity that limits the possibility of future growth to a given limit as well as a log function that linearizes the model. For this model, a maximum population of 1,600,000 was used as the carrying capacity based on the apparent limit in the polynomial model as well as knowledge of constraints to future development in Suffolk County (i.e., space, housing, resources, etc). Given that population has been rising at a slow rate in the previous three decades and that new housing construction was down dramatically in the second half of the 2000 decade, it is reasonable to assume that the population of Suffolk County will not grow beyond 1,600,000 in the foreseeable future.

With the carrying capacity added to the model, the log-­‐modified exponential displayed some of the better predictive capability of all the models reviewed. The R2 for this model was highest of all the models at 0.9671, and the model predicted a 2010 population of 1,477,485, which was the second closest to the actual population of all the models.

Interestingly, however, the MAPE for this model was the highest of all the models at 31.761%. This appears to be related to the inability of the model to accurately reflect actual population in the first three years of the model. In fact, this model estimates a negative population for 1940.

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REVIEW OF ALL TREND EXTRAPOLATION MODELS FIGURE 12, below, displays the curves for all seven trend extrapolation models as well as the observed population. This chart illustrates the relative difficulties each model had in accurately reflecting observed population. However, given that the purpose of these models is to estimate future conditions, four models stand out as being incongruous with this task: the linear, exponential, logarithmic, and power models. The other three models— polynomial, moving average, and log-­‐modified exponential—all closely resemble actual population growth between 2000 and 2010.

III. COHORT-­‐COMPONENT MODEL Another method for predicting population growth is the cohort-­‐component model. This model breaks down the population into age–sex cohorts (similar to the Age–Sex Pyramids) and considers birth and death rates and migration in attempting to predict future population growth.

In constructing this model, two base years were used for data collection: 1990 and 2000.

Age–sex cohort data was collected for five-­‐year intervals2 using data from the U.S. Census.

Two additional pieces of data were collected for this model: birth rates from 1990 and 2000 and death rates from those years (both acquired from the Centers for Disease Control). This data was collected for New York State because of the lack of county-­‐specific data.

2

The last cohort is larger than five years and contains ages 85 and up.

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The first consideration made in the model was the survival rate of each age–sex cohort for 1990. This rate was derived from taking the inverse of the death rate data released by the Centers for Disease Control for 1989–1991. Multiplying the number of people within a given cohort by the corresponding survival rate for that cohort provided an estimation of how many of those individuals survived to make it into the next cohort in 1995. This calculation was made for all age–sex cohorts except 85 and over. For this group, the survival number was calculated using an average of the death rates for all the different age periods above 85.

In order to account for additions to the population by birth, a fertility rate was applied to all age-­‐appropriate female cohorts. These rates were acquired from Centers for Disease Control Life Tables for 1989–1991 for the New York State level. To estimate the number of births in the period between 1990 and1995, the fertility rate was multiplied by the number of females within the appropriate cohort. Each number was then multiplied by 5 and added together to determine an estimate for the number of births within this period. In order to properly apply these numbers to the age–sex model, the number was divided into males and females based on the assumed newborn ratio of 0.49 females and 0.51 males.

This entire procedure was repeated for 2000 using the estimates derived from the 1990 data as well as the 1990 survival rates. Estimates for migration were derived by comparing the estimated 2000 population with the actual 2000 population. The migration residual, as it’s known, for each age–sex cohort was calculated by taking the difference of the actual 2000 figure and the estimated figure.

Using U.S. Census data from 2000, as well as fertility and mortality data from this year, the entire procedure was repeated for 2010. The cohort-­‐component model predicted an estimated population of 1,380,495. FIGURE 12, below, shows an age–sex pyramid for Suffolk County in 2010 using the cohort component model projection.

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IV. COMPARING COHORT-­‐COMPONENT MODEL PROJECTION WITH ACTUAL 2010 DATA In order to assess the accuracy of the cohort-­‐component model, the projected 2010 data was compared to the actual 2010 population data. The cohort-­‐component model predicted a 2010 population of 1,380,495 compared with the actual population of 1,493,350 (a difference of –112,885). An age–sex pyramid for the actual 2010 population of Suffolk County is shown below in FIGURE 13.

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A comparison of the two age–sex pyramids above reveals an interesting discrepancy between the actual 2010 population and cohort projection. Namely, the projection dramatically undercounts the number of children under 14 (–50,110) while overestimating the number of people between 15 and 34 (+66,705). The middle-­‐age population between 35 and 60 is also dramatically underrepresented (–95,928), as is the population of those over 85 (–10,778). The most likely reason for this discrepancy is the use of state-­‐wide data to make assumptions about fertility and mortality rates in Suffolk County. As mentioned before, Suffolk County is one of the most populous counties in the United States. In addition, it is also one of the wealthiest (ranking 23rd overall).x These rankings likely mean that Suffolk County is not very representative of New York State, which is characterized not only by a large rural landscape but by New York City, which accounts for 42.5% of the total population of the State.xi It is possible that these differences between Suffolk County and New York State overall (in income, density, and other socio-­‐economic factors) caused the cohort-­‐component model to estimate a population that was not entirely representative of the actual population of Suffolk.

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V. MAP OF SUFFOLK COUNTY, CHARACTERISTICS FIGURE 14: Map of Long Island Counties

LONG ISLAND New York

Suffolk County, Nassau County & the 5 Boroughs Region

CONNECTICUT

NEW YORK

Long Island Sound

Shelter Island Southold East Hampton

Riverhead

NEW JERSEY

Southampton BRONX

MANHATTAN

North Hempstead QUEENS

BROOKLYN

Oyster Bay

NASSAU COUNTY

Huntington

Smithtown

SUFFOLK COUNTY Brookhaven

Islip Babylon

Hempstead

STATEN ISLAND

ATLANTIC OCEAN

Í

N 1 in = 12.09 miles 0

6

Prepared by Suffolk County Department of Planning, January 27, 2010.

Source: http://www.suffolkcountyny.gov/Departments/Planning/Divisions/CartographyandGIS.aspx

12

18

24 Miles

Suffolk County is located on the eastern two-­‐thirds of Long Island. The county is 86 miles long and 26 miles wide at its largest point. The county is comprised of ten towns and a number of incorporated villages. The town governments control most of the land use decisions as well as the provision of basic local services. FIGURE 15, below, shows the various towns and villages in Suffolk County.

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FIGURE 15: Suffolk County Towns and Incorporated Villages S U F F O L K C O U N T Y, N E W YO R K

ELIZABETH AIRPORT

Menantic Rd

v

und So

Ro u

k Ln

er R iv

e Rd eplac Fir

O l d Montau k H

uk Hwy Old Monta

Amagansett

Rd Hole berry Montauk Hwy Cran

Hwy

Napeague

ods

Ln East Hampton

GENERAL

Sa gaponack

Southampton

New York

Beach Rd

Dune Rd

0

Source: Suffolk County Department of Planning, Division of Cartography; NYS Office of Cyber Security & Critical Infrastructure Coordination.

3

6

New Jersey

Miles 12

9

Connecticut Long Island Sound

ATLANTIC OCEAN

Dunes

Beach

w

y

ile Har bo

rings

Thre eM

Sp

Hwy

c Rd

t one

na Mo n ta uk

Old S

Ac ca bo

Brick Kiln Rd d

le

Sagg Rd

S

Ho

n Rd

Ln Town

n ack

Ocea

East Hampton North

Sa ga po

Head of Pond Rd

EL a

49

Montauk

Ñ

Nec

ey Nec k Ln

ve

re D r P lea su

Lyn

M ain S t

ain St

Edwards Ave

Rd head

Jessup Ln

t

Schultz Rd

Wading River Rd

Speonk River

Rd Place Mo

W Bartle tt Rd

NC

Miller

unt Sina i Cor am Rd

e an Ave N Oc

Ave

s Pat h Joshua

Islip Ave

Route 112

uppa ug e Rd Ha

d ark R

Deer P

Deer Park Ave 231 t e Hwy

Medford

Woo db ury Rd

Av e

New Yor k

Rd Whitman Walt

lo w Rd

adhol

B ro

Sta

Wo

l 77

Dr

da r St

MONTAUK AIRPORT

4 4

Springs

ke

Ln Meadow

Montauk H w y

Bridgehampton

9A Rd pton Southampton Ham Hospital

Ce

Rd

40

41

ill Rd

Dunes Rd

County Rd 3

59

sk ck

4 32

o g ue S

38

52

Hill St

Shinneock Reservation

Tpke

Bu

Quogue

4 4

Shinnecock Hills nA

a rbor

C rH

4 4

ks Rd Ban

Seb ona c Rd Tuckahoe

39

Hampton Bays

ingy Spr

4 Hampton Bays SOUTHAMPTON

EAST HAMPTON AIRPORT

ttle cu

Water Mill

EAST 4 l HAMPTON

Wainscott

79

H

Rd

80

North Sea

4

R

d

Quiogue

Westhampton Beach

No

k Rd

S ag

ys

4

FRANCIS S. GABRESKI AIRPORT

try Rd Old Coun

W yac

Northwest Harbor

ek R

n Ba

Rd

s C re

am pto

ck ya

Sa g H arbor

Hand

Broadway

Rd

Saltaire

d-H

P

oin t

71

l

No

R ed C re

ea

r da

Fire Island

Flanders

Gardiners Island

Ce

4

60

Stony Hill Rd

Rob e rt Mos e s State Pkwy

December 19, 2011 - CD-11-18

104

31

Rd

4

ac R d

Noyack

East Quogue

4

Westhampton try

Noy

Great Peconic Bay

Rd

Riv erh

Shelter Island

y Rd Ferr

Co un

Pkwy

Old

RemsenburgSpeonk

Mastic Beach

Great South Bay Ocean

4

S Ferry Rd

71

West Hampton

Oak BeachCaptree

F land e

err y

Northampton SCCC Eastern Campus

Poospatuck Reservation

Gilgo

Riverside

Block Island Sound

NF

36

94A

o

55

l4

98

4 ISLAND 116

Gardiners Bay

Rd

North Haven

Robins Island

d Rd ow ll T

4

East Moriches

4

N Bayview Rd ew Rd

r Mi ate

Center Moriches

ay v i

Brander wy

Moriches

Bellport

4 4 Eastport 51

SPADARO AIRFIELD

Mastic

Shirley

d Pk tr an

Brookhaven

in B

Rd N Fe rry

115

26

New Suffolk

ge e St N Ma

80

ni

o

Main Rd

Orient

Dering Harbor 42

Nassau Point Rd

l

4 21

4

111

Front St

Nos

x Ln

North Bellport

Co

Rd

Brookhaven Memorial Hospital

e Ln idg

tch

o

101

99

Pa

4

P e co

Rd

w rro

4 4 SHELTER

Shelter Island Heights

Br

4

4 k East an ph Patchogue ue Ya Ñ og

ll Ln Mi

4

Bayport 65 SCCC Sayville Downtown Center

Patchogue

k

4

Main Rd MATTITUCK AIRPORT

l

d Blv c B ay

Ponquogue Ave

Blue Point

Ma

Peconic

Rd ek

k

l

Ave Hubbard

4

495

Laurel

Na

GreenportÑ

in Rd Ma

West

Cutchogue

Mill Ln

North Patchogue

BAYPORT AERODROME

County Center

Manorville

48

te 25

EM

Qu

Great River

61

112

4 SCCC 4 k Culinary Arts Program 73

Dr Riverhead N u ge n t

§ ¨ ¦ BROOKHAVEN CALABRO AIRPORT

Rd

Ln

West Sayville

4

Holbrook

4 Sayville

85

Yaphank County Center

4Greenport

e Av

Southold

Jamesport

Aquebogue

63

n St

105

Rd

Copiague

4

Yaphank

43

wis Le

Oakdale

Medford

4

Rd

4 4

Ñ

Bay Ave

Bohemia

North Great River

I 495

Central Suffolk Hospital 58

Sound Ave

Northville

s Ave

Ln Manor

Islip Terrace

R iver

Reeve

Herricks

17

East Islip

Brookhaven National Laboratory

iew

SOUTHOLD

rs

4

State Hwy 27 Southside Islip Hospital Main St

Ñ

Calverton

Path

Ñ

Bay Shore

l

Doctors

Brightwaters West

Good Bay SamaritanShore Hospital

LONG ISLAND ISLIP MacARTHUR AIRPORT

E Mai

16

Rd

oke Ave Roan

State Hwy 27

West Islip

4 50

4

Mont 82auk Hwy

4

90

Pond

Riverhead

RIVERHEAD

CALVERTON AIRPORT

Swan

4 BROOKHAVEN

Ave Osborn

Babylon

State Hwy 25

Ridge

Gordon Heights

on Oreg

Mattituck

Baiting Hollow

Rd

46

4 Holtsville

19

l

ISLIP

4

St

96

29

W hiskey

Sound Ave

Rd

57

34

4

4

4

4

West Babylon

Memo rial Hw y

d Ave Lakelan

12

an s

Wading River

21

Mill Rd

urch

ood Ave

4

Rd Granny

93

4

4 54

Route 25A

Middle Island

Town Coram Rd

SCCC Ammerman Campus Farmingville

4 4

na l Rd

East Shoreham

Rocky Point

nor

109

North Lindenhurst

Central Islip Psychiatric Center

Ñ

13

k

Old

Selden

Miller Place

Fresh Pond Ave

Baywood North Babylon

Ca

4

97

Islandia Ronkonkoma

na l Rd

r Ma

ute

Lindenhurst

67

Brentwood

Ca

Terryville

Long Island Sound

Shoreham

ive

28

4

Route 25A

Sinai

83

4

Centereach

Lake Ronkonkoma

t er

20

Hwy conset Nes

Nesconset

4

Central Islip

4

North Bay Shore

St. James

Lake Grove

n By

76

Ch

4

N Wellw

4

7

w thto

Hwy

Sound Beach

4Mount

gR

Ro

North Amityville

6

set con Nes

Village of the Branch p

S mi

Hauppauge

100

3

47 Sunrise Hwy Brunswick Hospital

Me rric k Rd

4

Pilgrim Psychiatric Center

4

o

at Stony Brook

John T. Mather

Ñ Memorial Hospital

Hallock Ave

n adi W

2

SCCC Grant Campus

Ñ

Port Jefferson Station

k Rd han

4

Deer Park

k

Ñ

North County Complex

St. Charles Hospital

Por tÑ Jefferson

A

Stony Brook

R

E Main St

Smithtown

Ve

Wyandanch

SMITHTOWN

Tpke

o

ntry ou

25

te

SetauketStony Brook East Setauket University University Hospital

e Yap r Plac

Wheatley Heights

l 4 BABYLON

1

W Jericho

H. Lee Dennison Building

4

4 Amityville

Ñ

66

Dix Hills

4

East Farmingdale

Ñ

Jericho Tpke Commack

4

Ñ

Melville

Fu lton St

St. Catherine of Siena

14

HUNTINGTON South Huntington

4

Ro u

4 68

Head of the Harbor

l

Belle Ter re

Poquott Main St

Nissequogue

Ñ

Mille

Elwood

Jericho Tpke

Sagamore Children's Psychiatric Center

Conklin StREPUBLIC AIRPORT

Rd Dock

E Main Kings Park St Psychiatric Center

Huntington Station

West Hills

NASSAU COUNTY

Old

te 112 Rou

92

Kings Park

East Northport

Greenlawn

Smithtown Bay

Veterans Administration Medical Center

Ñ

10

86

Fort Salonga

Rd

4

4

Plum Island East Marion Rd Eastern Long North Island Hospital

St

35

44

Fort S alonga

Huntington

4

W Jericho Tpke

Nor thpor t

Hospital

Ñ

11

County Road Interstate Highway Long Island Rail Road Town Boundary Village

Main

kR

Centerport

Halesite Huntington Main St

Cold Spring Harbor

Old Field

d

ec

Huntington Bay

d

First

Ñ

W

N

Suffolk County Center Suffolk County Community College Hospital Airport Major Road

o

k

Lloyd Harbor

Hals

Asharoken Eatons Neck

Lloyd Ha bor Rd r

Fishers Island

l

Legend

Nassau Cty

Suffolk Cty Atlantic Ocean

Map is subject to revision. This map is not to be used for surveying, conveyance of land, or other precise purposes.

Source: http://www.suffolkcountyny.gov/Departments/Planning/Divisions/CartographyandGIS.aspx

The Long Island Railroad (LIRR) offers service to Suffolk County from New York City. The Long Island Expressway runs down the center of the island from Queens to Riverhead, the seat of the county government. Riverhead is located at the nexus of what are known as the North and South Forks on the east end of the island. Agriculture remains a significant industry on the two forks and transportation to these areas is limited. There are no major highways on the forks and the LIRR runs only infrequent service.

FIGURE 16: 2007 Suffolk County Land Use S U F F O L K C O U N T Y, N E W YO R K Smithtown Bay

Legend

Land Use Low Density Residential

Institutional

Utilities

Medium Density Residential

Recreation & Open Space

Wast Handling & Management

High Density Residential

Agricultural

Underwater Land

Commercial

Vacant

Industrial

Transportation Long Island Sound

HUNTINGTON

SHELTER ISLAND

SOUTHOLD

Plum Is

Gardiners Bay

o Block Island Sound Gardiners Is

SMITHTOWN RIVERHEAD

NASSAU COUNTY

Robins Is

Great Peconic Bay

BROOKHAVEN BABYLON

EAST HAMPTON

ISLIP SOUTHAMPTON

Sunrise Hwy

ATLANTIC OCEAN

Great South Bay January 6, 2012 - CD-11-18

Source: Suffolk County Department of Planning, Division of Cartography; Suffolk County Department of Real Property Tax Service Agency; NYS Office of Cyber Security & Critical Infrastructure Coordination.

0

3

6

9

Miles 12

Source: http://www.suffolkcountyny.gov/Departments/Planning/Divisions/CartographyandGIS.aspx

LAND USE, 2007 Map is subject to revision. This map is not to be used for surveying, conveyance of land, or other precise purposes.

FIGURE 16, above, shows the land use in Suffolk County in 2007. The county contains a variety of land uses; however, the majority is residential. The western half of the county contains most of the population density (see FIGURE 17, below), while the east end is characterized by agricultural land and open space preserves.

19 | P a g e

FIGURE 17: 2010 Suffolk County Population Density S U F F O L K C O U N T Y, N E W YO R K

Fishers Island

Legend 4,001 - 5,000

v

und So

Ro u

e Rd eplac Fir

ile Har bo

rings Sp

Thre eM

w

y

Hwy

c Rd

t one

na

Ac ca bo

Old S

Brick Kiln Rd d

le Ho

Sagg Rd

S

O l d Montau k H

Rd Hole berry Montauk Hwy Cran

Hwy

Napeague

EAST HAMPTON

M ain S t

n Rd

n ack

Ocea

Ln

Amagansett

SAGAPONACK

Sa ga po

Rd pton Ham

k Ln

Town

Mo n ta uk

Ln

SOUTHAMPTON

Nec

P lea su

Lyn

ey Nec k Ln

re D r

Rd head

da r St

North

ods

Montauk uk Hwy Old Monta

t

First

Hals

Rd Place Miller

e an Ave N Oc

Ave

Medford

Speonk River

Jessup Ln

ve

Edwards Ave

ain St

Schultz Rd

Ha

s Pat h Joshua

Islip Ave

Wading River Rd

uppa ug e Rd

d ark R

Deer P

Deer Park Ave 231

Ce

Wo

EL a

Dr

ks Rd Ban

Montauk H w y

Bridgehampton

Rd

ke

ingy Spr

9A

Wainscott

ill Rd

County Rd 3

Hill St

Ln Meadow

ttle cu

sk ck

Tuckahoe

Shinneock Reservation

Water Mill

Tpke

Bu

Shinnecock Hills

nA

H

Seb ona c Rd

SOUTHAMPTON

a rbor

d

Hampton Bays

North Sea

EAST East HAMPTON Hampton

S ag

yac

R

C rH

Springs

ek R

No

Rd

Northwest Harbor

s C re

W k Rd

SAG HARBOR

Hand

t e Hwy

Rd

Sta

unt Sina i Cor am Rd

NC

d

Woo db ury Rd

Av e

New Yor k

Rd Whitman Walt

P

oin t

ys

r da

Stony Hill Rd

n Ba

Gardiners Is

Ce

ac R d

Rd

d Rd ow ll T

am pto

ck ya

r Mi ate

d-H

Block Island Sound

Gardiners Bay

Shelter Island

y Rd Ferr

lo w Rd

Pkwy

SHELTER ISLAND S Ferry Rd

adhol

err y

B ro

NF

Brander wy

ea

o g ue S

WESTHAMPTON BEACH

No

R ed C re

QUOGUE

Beach Rd

Dunes Rd

P O P U L AT I O N D E N S I T Y BY C E N S U S D E S I G N AT E D P L A C E , 2 0 1 0

Dune Rd

ATLANTIC OCEAN

DUNES

Fire Island

0

Source: Suffolk County Department of Planning, Division of Cartography; US Census Bureau; NYS Office of Cyber Security & Critical Infrastructure Coordination.

SALTAIRE

d Pk tr an

try Rd Old Coun

Quiogue

Poospatuck Reservation

Nos

Rd

RemsenburgSpeonk

OCEAN

Rob e rt Mos e s State Pkwy

Riv erh

Flanders

Westhampton try

N Bayview Rd ew Rd

Shelter Island

NORTH HAVEN

Great Peconic Bay

East Quogue Co un

New Suffolk

ge e St N Ma

East Moriches

ay v i

Noy

Rd

Rd

Fire Island

nic B

Ponquogue Ave

Old

Center Moriches

in B

Noyack

Northampton

Manorville

WEST HAMPTON

December 5, 2011 - CD-11-18

Dr

Qu

Mastic Beach

Ma

lvd ay B

Riverside

Eastport

Moriches

Shirley Brookhaven

BELLPORT

P e co

o

Main Rd

Orient

Rd Heights N Fe rry Rd

EM

F land e

Mastic

North Bellport

te 25

Nassau Point Rd

N u ge n t

Rd

og tch

Great South Bay

Oak BeachCaptree

Gilgo

Ave Hubbard

Rd

w rro

DERING HARBOR

Southold

Peconic

Rd ek

Pa

e Av

Cutchogue

Bay Ave

Rd

Ln

k East an ph Patchogue ue Ya

PATCHOGUE

Blue Point

Bayport

Rd

Main Rd

Sound Ave

Laurel

Jamesport

Aquebogue

wis Le

Sayville

West Sayville Great River

Copiague

Riverhead

n St

Yaphank

North Patchogue St

ood Ave

Oakdale

urch

Main St

East Islip

s Ave

Ln Manor

State Hwy 27

West Bay Shore

auk Hwy

Holbrook Bohemia

d Ave Lakelan

N Wellw

Mont

E Mai I 495

Medford

ISLIP North Great River Islip Terrace

Islip

BRIGHTWATERS

West Islip

BABYLON

Brookhaven National Laboratory

Reeve

Herricks

Bay Shore

State Hwy 27

West Babylon

LINDENHURST

R iver

Mattituck Northville

RIVERHEAD

BROOKHAVEN

Holtsville

Ronkonkoma

Memo rial Hw y

Ch

North Lindenhurst

Sunrise Hwy

AMITYVILLE Me rric k Rd

Baywood

North Babylon

Rd

rs

BABYLON

109

Pond

Mill Rd

an s

iew

SOUTHOLD

Baiting Hollow

Calverton Swan

Rd

North Amityville

ute

t er

Sound Ave

State Hwy 25

Ridge

nor

Ro

Rd Granny

Wading River

Rd

r Ma

Fu lton St

Central Islip

W hiskey

Middle Island

ive

Farmingville

ISLANDIA

North Bay Shore

na l Rd

Rd

Gordon Heights

Lake Ronkonkoma

Ve

Wyandanch

East Farmingdale

Brentwood

Deer Park

Town

gR

Wheatley Heights

Old

Selden

on Oreg

Na

GREENPORT Front St

in Rd Ma

x Ln

Ca

Coram

Centereach

Route 25A

n adi W

Hauppauge

Stony Brook Hwy conset Nes

LAKE GROVE

Long Island Sound

East Shoreham

Rocky Point

Path

Nesconset

na l Rd

Doctors

VILLAGE OF THE BRANCH p By wn thto

Ca

Terryville

oke Ave Roan

E Main St

S mi

Hwy

Mill Ln

SMITHTOWN St. James

set con Nes

> 7,000

SHOREHAM

Co

R

2,001 - 3,000

Plum Is East Marion Greenport North Rd West

Sound Beach Route 25A

Ave Osborn

Tpke

Miller Place

Fresh Pond Ave

W Jericho

Mount Sinai

k Rd han

Jericho Tpke

Commack

Dix Hills

PORT JEFFE RSON

e Yap r Plac

HUNTINGTON

South Huntington

ntry ou

6,001 - 7,000

e Ln idg

HEAD OF THE HARBOR

Smithtown

A

SetauketHallock Ave East Setauket Port Jefferson Stony Station Brook University

Mille

Elwood

25

5,001 - 6,000

Br

Greenlawn

Jericho Tpke

te

≤1,000 1,001 - 2,000

ll Ln Mi

NISSEQUOGUE

Huntington Station

Melville

Conklin St

Broadway

POQUOTT Main St

Ro u

Rd Dock

te 112 Rou

West Hills

Old

Kings E Main St Park

in St Ma

East Northport

W Jericho Tpke

NASSAU COUNTY

Fort Salonga

Huntington

Mo

Rd

Fort S alonga

Main St

BELLE TERRE

W Bartle tt Rd

Halesite Cold Spring Harbor

OLD FIELD

Smithtown Bay

NORTHPORT

St

Centerport

Main

kR d

Route 112

ec

re Rd E Sho

HUNTINGTON BAY

Head of Pond Rd

W

N

er

Persons per sqmi

ASHAROKEN

Eatons Neck

LLLOYD loyd Ha rbor Rd

HARBOR

R iv

3,001 - 4,000

Menantic Rd

Census Designated Places, 2010

3

6

Miles 12

9

Map is subject to revision. This map is not to be used for surveying, conveyance of land, or other precise purposes.

BEACH

Source: http://www.suffolkcountyny.gov/Departments/Planning/Divisions/CartographyandGIS.aspx

FIGURE 18: 2000–2010 Suffolk County Population Change S U F F O L K C O U N T Y, N E W YO R K

Legend

6

9

er R iv

e Rd eplac Fir

ile Har bo

rings

Thre eM

Sp

w

y

Hwy

c Rd

t one

na

Town

Ln

Mo n ta uk

Old S

Ac ca bo

Brick Kiln Rd d

le Ho

S

re D r

Sagg Rd M ain S t

n Rd Ocea

Ln

O l d Montau k H

Montauk

Hwy

uk Hwy Old Monta

Rd Hole berry Montauk Hwy Cran

Napeague

Amagansett

EAST HAMPTON

SAGAPONACK

Sa ga po

Head of Pond Rd

n ack

ain St

Schultz Rd

Menantic Rd

v

k Ln Nec

ey Nec k Ln

First

Hals

Edwards Ave

Rd head

P lea su

Lyn

ve

Rd Place

e an Ave N Oc

Ave

Medford

Wading River Rd

Ha

s Pat h Joshua

Islip Ave

unt Sina i Cor am Rd

uppa ug e Rd

d

Miller

d

Av e

New Yor k

ark R

Deer P

Deer Park Ave 231 t e Hwy

W Bartle tt Rd

NC

Woo db ury Rd

Rd Whitman Walt

Sta

Speonk River

Jessup Ln

t

3

da r St

North

ods

Dr

Beach Rd

ATLANTIC OCEAN

0

Ce

Wo

EL a

ke

Source: Suffolk County Department of Planning, Division of Cartography; US Census Bureau; NYS Office of Cyber Security & Critical Infrastructure Coordination.

Tpke

ill Rd

Dunes Rd

Bridgehampton

Wainscott

Rd

Springs

SOUTHAMPTON

Dune Rd

DUNES

Fire Island

Montauk H w y

sk ck

Rd pton Ham

ttle cu

Bu

Water Mill

ks Rd Ban

9A

H

County Rd 3

Hill St

a rbor

d

Seb ona c Rd

Tuckahoe

Shinneock Reservation Ln Meadow

o g ue S

North Sea

S ag

Shinnecock Hills

nA

k Rd

R

C rH

EAST East HAMPTON Hampton ek R

SOUTHAMPTON

QUOGUE

Rd

s C re

Hampton Bays

yac

Northwest Harbor

Hand

No

Rd

SAG HARBOR

ingy Spr

lo w Rd

Rd

ys

P

oin t

n Ba

r da

am pto

Gardiners Is

Ce

Stony Hill Rd

d-H

Block Island Sound

Gardiners Bay

Shelter Island

y Rd Ferr

adhol

Pkwy ac R d

W

R ed C re

ea

S Ferry Rd

B ro

err y

try Rd Old Coun

Quiogue

OCEAN SALTAIRE

NF

Rd

No

ck ya

d Rd ow ll T

Rob e rt Mos e s State Pkwy

SHELTER ISLAND

NORTH HAVEN

Noy

r Mi ate

Fire Island

Brander wy

December 5, 2011 - CD-11-18

Westhampton try

WESTHAMPTON BEACH

Poospatuck Reservation

Riv erh

East Quogue Co un

RemsenburgSpeonk

WEST HAMPTON

Great South Bay

d Pk tr an

Mastic Beach

East Moriches

Qu

BELLPORT

Old

Center Moriches

Nos

Moriches

Shirley Brookhaven

New Suffolk

Great Peconic Bay

Rd

Flanders

Eastport Mastic

North Bellport

N Bayview Rd ew Rd

Shelter Island

Cutchogue

ge e St N Ma

Rd

og tch

ay v i

Nassau Point Rd

Pa

in B

Noyack

Northampton

Manorville

o

Main Rd

Orient

Rd Heights N Fe rry Rd

EM

Dr

Ponquogue Ave

k East an ph Patchogue ue Ya

Ma

lvd yB

Rd

PATCHOGUE

nic B a

Riverside F land e

n St

Yaphank

Blue Point

P e co

wis Le

Bayport

te 25

PECONIC

Rd ek

North Patchogue Sayville

Great River

Oak BeachCaptree

Gilgo

Ave Hubbard

Rd

w rro

DERING HARBOR

Southold

x Ln

N u ge n t

Ln

Bohemia

Oakdale West Sayville

Copiague

Rd

Laurel

Jamesport

Aquebogue

Bay Ave

North Great River

Islip Terrace

Islip

Main St

East Islip

Ln Manor

State Hwy 27

West Bay Shore

I 495

Rd

Main Rd

Sound Ave

Herricks

BRIGHTWATERS

Holbrook

St

West Islip auk Hwy

E Mai

Medford

ISLIP

d Ave Lakelan

Mont

Holtsville

Ronkonkoma

urch

ood Ave

BABYLON

LINDENHURST

Riverhead

rs

Bay Shore

State Hwy 27

West Babylon

N Wellw

Sunrise Hwy

Memo rial Hw y

Ch

North North Amityville Lindenhurst

AMITYVILLE Me rric k Rd

North Bay Shore

Baywood

North Babylon

BROOKHAVEN

Brookhaven National Laboratory

s Ave

Path

BABYLON

109

Rd

R iver

Mattituck

Reeve

Na

GREENPORT Front St in Rd Ma

e Av

SOUTHOLD

Northville

RIVERHEAD

Rd

ute

Pond

Mill Rd

an s

on Oreg

Baiting Hollow

Calverton Swan

nor

Ro

t er

Sound Ave

State Hwy 25

Ridge

r Ma

Fu lton St

Rd Granny

Wading River

Rd

ive

Farmingville

ISLANDIA

Central Islip

W hiskey

Middle Island

Gordon Heights

Lake Ronkonkoma

Ve

Wyandanch

East Farmingdale

Brentwood

Deer Park

na l Rd

Rd

gR

Wheatley Heights

Town

Route 25A

n adi W

Hauppauge

Old

Selden

East Shoreham

iew

Co

Ca

Coram

Centereach

Nesconset

Long Island Sound

SHOREHAM

Rocky Point

Plum Is East Marion Greenport North Rd West

e Ln idg

Stony Brook Hwy conset Nes

LAKE GROVE

na l Rd

Doctors

VILLAGE OF THE BRANCHp By wn thto

S mi

Ca

Terryville

No Data*

oke Ave Roan

E Main St

Hwy

> 35%

-5 - 5%

Ave Osborn

SMITHTOWN St. James

set con Nes

-4.9 - -15%

Fresh Pond Ave

Tpke

R

Sound Beach Route 25A

k Rd han

W Jericho

Miller Place

25.1 - 35%

Mill Ln

Smithtown Jericho Tpke

Commack

Dix Hills

Mount Sinai

e Yap r Plac

Jericho Tpke

HUNTINGTON

South Huntington

PORT JEFFERSON

15.1 - 25%

-14.9 - -25%

Br

HEAD OF THE HARBOR

ntry ou

A

Mille

Elwood

25

te 112 Rou

Kings E Main St Park

Greenlawn

te

SetauketHallock Ave East Setauket Port Jefferson Stony Station Brook University

5.1 - 15%

-24.9 - -35%

ll Ln Mi

NISSEQUOGUE

Huntington Station

Melville

Conklin St

Broadway

POQUOTT Main St

Ro u

Rd Dock

in St Ma

West Hills

Old

Mo

Fort Salonga

East Northport

>-35%

St

Rd

Huntington

W Jericho Tpke

NASSAU COUNTY

Smithtown Bay

NORTHPORT

Fort S alonga

Main St

BELLE TERRE

Main

kR

Centerport

Halesite Cold Spring Harbor

OLD FIELD

Route 112

ec

re Rd E Sho

HUNTINGTON BAY

d

und

W

N

So

HARBOR

Ro u

ASHAROKEN

Eatons Neck

LLLOYD loyd Ha rbor Rd

Fishers Island

Population Change: 2000-2010 Percent Change

Miles 12

PERCENT POPULATION CHANGE BY CENSUS DESIGNATED PLACE, 2000-2010** *Some CDP's have been added, split, or merged so that there is no comparable data from 2000 for comparison. ** Some CDP boundaries have been updated, therefore, direct community temporal comparison should be viewed with caution. See 2000 Census Designated Places map for 2000 boundary line to determine these areas.

Map is subject to revision. This map is not to be used for surveying, conveyance of land, or other precise purposes.

BEACH

Source: http://www.suffolkcountyny.gov/Departments/Planning/Divisions/CartographyandGIS.aspx

An analysis of FIGURE 17 and FIGURE 18 shows a large discrepancy between where the majority of residents live in Suffolk County and where most of the growth in population has occurred between 2000 and 2010. This indicates that most of western Suffolk County is built out and cannot handle significant housing construction. It lieu of growth in western Suffolk, development has shifted eastward. This threatens the agriculture and open space that characterize this region. Planners in Suffolk County and the various towns within it must plan for the future in growth in the region. Unfortunately, the massive growth that occurred mid-­‐century did not lay a blueprint for planned growth. Land constraints make future sprawl impossible, however. Either growth in the county takes a different form than that in the past or the threat of population and economic contraction looms large.

20 | P a g e

VI. THE FUTURE OF SUFFOLK COUNTY There are a variety of challenges relating to future growth in Suffolk County. These include not only the location of future residential development but also the nature of that development and the cost of living that accompanies it. According to the Long Island Index, a non-­‐profit research organization concerned with growth on Long Island, the population of people between the ages of 25 and 34 decreased by 12% between the years 2000 and 2010.xii This compares to a 4% increase for this age cohort over the same period country-­‐ wide. The cost of housing is likely a primary cause of this decline. While the cost of housing is high for all age cohorts on Long Island (in 2000, 27% of Long Island households spent more than 35% of their income on housing; by 2010, that share had risen to 38%), it is even higher for those between 25 and 34 years old.xiii For this age cohort, 43% pay more than 35% of their household income on housing.xiv An aging population raises concerns about the economic viability of the county in the future. With more residents retiring (and collecting government pensions), many planners are left to wonder whether there are enough tax-­‐paying and well-­‐employed residents to replace these retirees.

VII. HOUSING DEMAND The final section of this report estimates the unmet housing demand in Suffolk County.

Data was collected from the U.S. Census Bureau for both 2000 and 2010 measuring total population, population in group homes (including prison), population living in a household, average household size, and number of households. These data were used to project 2020 data based on a linear curve. These results are summarized in TABLE 3A, below.

TABLE 3A: Housing Demand Projection

Category

2000 Census

2010 Census

2020 Projection

Population

1,419,369

1,493,350

1,571,187

Group Population

28,578

29,406

30,242

Household Population

1,390,791

1,463,944

1,540,945

Average Household Size

2.96

2.93

2.89

Number of Households

469,299

499,922

532,543

Source: U.S. Census Bureau (2000 and 2010 Census)

As indicated in TABEL 3B, below, some large assumptions were made in order to project 2020 conditions. The 2020 projections assume the total housing units to be the same as 2010 and the occupied housing units to be the same as the total. This means that the vacancy rate for 2020 is zero.

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TABLE 3B: Housing Demand Projection

Category

2000 Census

2010 Census

2020 Projection

Total Housing Units

522,323

569,985

569,985

Occupied Housing

469,299

499,922

569,985

Vacant Units

53,024

70,063

0

Vacancy Rate

0.10

0.12

0.00

Source: U.S. Census Bureau (2000 and 2010 Census)

With these assumptions, this model predicted 569,985 total housing units in 2020 for only 532,543 households, a ratio of 1.07 housing units for every one household. This analysis was expanded on, however, to account for additional factors that might have an impact on housing demand.

TABLE 3C: 2020 Housing Demand Projection

Category Change in Number of Housing Units

Number 63,244

Change in # of Vacant Units

–53,024

Units That Must be Replaced

19,189

Units Lost to Disaster

2,612

Units Lost to Conversion

2,612

Units Lost to Demolition

13,966

Total Number of Units Needed 2000 to 2020

12,832

Housing Completion 2000–2010

31,774

Unmet Housing Demand 2011–2020

–18,942

TABLE 3C, above, displays the variables that were added to the model in order to produce are more accurate housing demand estimation. These variables include units lost to disaster, conversion, and demolition. These variables were used to estimate the number of units that would need to be replaced by 2020.

The number of units lost to demolition was derived from a ratio based on actual figures for the entire country over the period of 2000 to 2010. This was done because of the lack of available data on a state or county level. The demolition data was available in three-­‐year groups. In order to determine an estimate of housing demolitions for Suffolk County, the nationwide demolition numbers were broken down into single years by dividing each number for the three-­‐year group by three. The number for 2010 was not available, so the 2009 number was used for that year. In order to derive Suffolk County estimates based on these numbers, a ratio was applied. This ratio was determined by dividing the total number of housing units in Suffolk County for the years 2000 and 2010 by the number of total housing units nationwide for those respective years. The average of those two ratios was

22 | P a g e

then multiplied by the number of nationwide demolitions year by year in order to estimate yearly demolitions in Suffolk County. These numbers can be seen in TABLE 4, below.

TABLE 4: Annual Residential Demolitions In Suffolk County

Year

Residential Demolitions

2000

620

2001

562

2002

562

2003

587

2004

587

2005

935

2006

935

2007

723

2008

723

2009

723

2010

723

Source: U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. U.S. Census Bureau

Additional assumptions were made in order to determine the number of units lost to disaster and conversion. Given the relatively stable nature of housing in Suffolk County as well as the lack of many significant natural disasters, this number was assumed to be very small. Both these numbers were determined by taking 0.05% of the total housing units in 2000. The units lost to disaster, conversions, and demolitions increased the demand figure by 19,189 units. Subtracting the number of projected vacant units in 2020 from the number of vacant units in 2000 provided an estimated change in vacant units. Combining the number of units lost with the change in vacant units and the projected change in the number of households provides an estimate of the total number of housing units needed for 2000 to 2020 (12,832 units).

TABLE 5, below, displays the number of building permits for Suffolk County, by year, from 2000 to 2010. This data, in conjunction with two ratios provided by the U.S. Census Bureau (starts-­‐to-­‐permit ratio and completion-­‐to-­‐start ratio), was used to estimate the number of completions during this same period. Taking the difference of the number of housing units needed with the number of housing completions provided an estimate of the unmet housing demand between 2000 and 2020. As seen in TABLE 3C, this model shows Suffolk County to have an overabundance of housing compared to projected need by 18,942 units.

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As was the case with the cohort component model, significant assumptions were required in this analysis. Most significant is the assumption of zero vacancies in 2020. This seemed to have a large effect on the estimates of future need.

TABLE 5: Suffolk County Annual Residential Building Permits and Estimated Completion by Housing Type (2000-2010)

Building Permits Year

Number of Permits

1-Family

2-Family

2000

4,932

3,910

234

3- & 4Family 126

2001

4,680

3,488

190

104

898

2002

4,384

3,481

204

109

590

2003

3,204

2,636

238

114

216

2004

3,397

2,940

230

98

129

2005

5,183

4,241

2

0

940

2006

2,573

2,410

4

6

153

2007

2,126

2,030

6

33

57

2008

1,396

972

0

0

424

2009

990

791

0

0

199

2010

971

910

0

0

61

33,836

27,809

1,108

590

4,329

Number of Permits 27,809

Start to Permit Ratio 1.023

Completion to Start Ratio 0.965

Number of Completion 27,452.90576

Multi Family

6,027

0.775

0.925

Total

33,836

Totals

Building Type Single Family

5+ Family 662

4,321 31,774

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

CONCLUSION If the housing projection model properly reflects reality, then there is an overabundance of housing in Suffolk County relative to future need. Whether this is an accurate number or not belies the more important discussion relating to the future of Suffolk County. That is, not whether there is enough housing but rather whether there is enough affordable, accessible, and desirable housing to meet future demand. The age–sex pyramids show a loss of population in the young-­‐adult cohort (25–45).

Aging population is a major concern among planners and politicians in Suffolk County. The challenge the planners and politicians have is to determine what the future of development in the county will look like. Will development continue in the pattern established after

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WWII until all available land is built out? Or will politicians and residents embrace new patterns of development that not only address the significant land and resource constraints but also properly adhere to future demand?

All the models discussed in this report project continued population growth in Suffolk County. These models, however, cannot properly account for resource and land constraints or changing preferences, both economic and social. Because of this, planners in the county and towns within it must properly and proactively address questions about the nature of future development. Recently, many Suffolk County towns and communities have taken steps in this direction, focusing on revitalizing downtowns and building around existing infrastructure. In December of 2011, Long Island received a $101.6 million grant from New York State for 60 existing initiatives that focus on smart growth.xv Many of these projects, including the Ronkonkoma HUB project,xvi represent efforts by local planning officials to address development concerns by working with developers on finding profitable and responsible methods for future growth. Forward thinking and cooperative efforts such as this represent the only viable path forward to ensure continued growth in Suffolk County.

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APPENDIX 1: AGE-­‐SEX PYRAMIDS

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APPENDIX 2: TREND EXTRAPOLATION MODELS

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WORKS CITED

Suffolk County Executive’s Office. (2011). History of Suffolk County . Retrieved from http://www.suffolkcountyny.gov/Departments/CountyExecutive/HistoryofSuffolk County.aspx United States Census Bureau. (2011). The Older Population: 2010. Retrieved from

http://www.census.gov/prod/cen2010/briefs/c2010br-­‐09.pdf

Suffolk County Planning Department (2000). Smart Communities Through Smart Growth.

Retrieved from http://suffolkcountyny.gov/Portals/0/planning/Publications/SG032000.pdf

Washington Post. (2011) Highest Income Counties in 2011. Retrieved from http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-­‐srv/special/local/highest-­‐income-­‐counties/

Long Island Index (2011). 2011 Profile Report.Retrieved from http://www.longislandindex.org/fileadmin/Reports_and_Maps/2012_Reports/LI% 20Profile%202012.pdf

New York Times. (2011) Long Island Gets Big Grant in Cuomo’s Competition. Retrieved from http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/09/nyregion/cuomos-­‐regional-­‐development-­‐ competition-­‐awards-­‐grants.html?_r=0

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ENDNOTES

i

Suffolk County Executive’s Office. (2012). History of Suffolk County. Retrieved from http://www.suffolkcountyny.gov/Departments/CountyExecutive/HistoryofSuffolkCounty.aspx ii Suffolk County Executive’s Office iii Suffolk County Executive’s Office iv Suffolk County Executive’s Office v Suffolk County Executive’s Office vi United States Census Bureau (2011) The Older Population:2010. p. 4. Retrieved from http://www.census.gov/prod/cen2010/briefs/c2010br-­‐09.pdf vii Suffolk County Planning Department (2000). Smart Communities Through Smart Growth. p. i. Retrieved from http://suffolkcountyny.gov/Portals/0/planning/Publications/SG032000.pdf viii Suffolk County Planning Department: p. 1 ix Suffolk County Planning Department: p. 2 x Washington Post. (2011). Highest Income Counties in 2011.Retrieved from http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-­‐ srv/special/local/highest-­‐income-­‐counties/ xi American Fact Finder (2012). xii Long Island Index. (2012). 2012 Profile Report.p. 5. Retrieved from http://www.longislandindex.org/fileadmin/Reports_and_Maps/2012_Reports/LI%20Profile%202012.pdf xiii Long Island Index. p. 9 xiv Long Island Index. p. 7 xv New York Times (2011).Long Island Gets Big Grant in Cuomo’s Competition. Retreived from http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/09/nyregion/cuomos-­‐regional-­‐development-­‐competition-­‐awards-­‐ grants.html?_r=0 xvi Town of Brookhaven. (2012) Retrieved from http://www.brookhaven.org/Departments/PlanningEnvironment/Planning/RonkonkomaHub.aspx

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