UNDERSTANDING ECONOMIC CONDITIONS
Daniel Turner 34 S. 4th Avenue Highland Park, NJ 08904 daniel.turner86@gmail.com
UNDERSTANDING ECONOMIC CONDITIONS
PART ONE: CHARACTERISTICS OF THE LOCAL ECONOMY I. LOCATION OF THE COUNTY Suffolk County is one of sixty-two counties in the state of New York. As indicated in FIGURE 1 below, Suffolk is the easternmost county in New York State, comprising 1,000 square miles of the eastern two-thirds of Long Island.i The Algonquin tribe was native to the land that later became known as Suffolk County before the first European, a Dutchman named Adrian Block, made landfall in 1614.ii Although largely rural and agriculture oriented through most of its history, Suffolk has been characterized in the last century by rapid suburban growth. FIGURE 1: M AP OF S UFFOLK C OUNTY, N EW Y ORK (County highlighted in green)
Source: http://www.suffolkcountyny.gov/Departments/Planning/Divisions/CartographyandGIS.aspx
II. HISTORIC ECONOMIC COMPOSITION AND ECONOMIC TRENDS The Suffolk County Comprehensive Plan 2035 (2011) provides an overview of the economic health of the county and historic trends.iii According to this report, the total output of goods and services produced in 2008 for Long Island (both Nassau and Suffolk County) was estimated to be $138.6 billion.iv This figure would place Long Island in the top 20 metropolitan areas in the nation.v Over the course of the past two decades, Suffolk County has seen a shift in the industries that dominate the local economy. According to the 2012 Profile Report by the Long Island Index, the NOVEMBER 2012
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UNDERSTANDING ECONOMIC CONDITIONS economy of Long Island was dominated by large firms in the defense and aerospace industry as recently as the 1980’s.vi With the end of the cold war, however, these industries have seen a sharp decline in prominence. However, the research and technology institutions as well as the pool of high skilled labor remain. Between 2005 and 2010, while the manufacturing sector saw a 21.2% decline in the number of jobs on Long Island, the education and health services sectors saw employment rises of 14.4% and 9.3% respectively. vii According to the Comprehensive Plan, although the loss of defense jobs hurt the long island economy, moving forward Suffolk County can depend on growth in several sectors. These include health, educational and social services, tourism, the arts, and emerging technologies such as bioscience.viii In 2008, the largest employers in Suffolk County were LIJ Health Systems (employing over 31,000 people), the Winthrop Health Systems, Stop and Shop supermarkets and Cablevision, each employing over 6000 people.ix
III. ECONOMIC BASE ANALYSIS 2010: LOCATION QUOTIENTS AND BASE MULTIPLIER Economic base analysis was a process developed by Robert Murray Haig while working on the Regional Plan of New York in 1928.x In this analysis, a local economy is divided into two sectors: the basis and the non-basic. The basic sector is comprised of firms that depend on factors that external to the region (e.g. manufacturing exports) while the non-basic sector is comprised of firms that are more localized (e.g. drugs stores and restaurants). The central assumption of the Economic Base Theory is that a local economic grows with the presence of basic sector exports that brings money into the local economy and increases the demand for goods and services from non-basic sectors. This theory also hypothesizes that the local economy is stronger when it has more basic sectors because it insulates itself better from local economic downturns.xi One way to identify the basic sectors in a local economy is by calculating location quotients. This is derived by dividing the local employment number by the national employment number. A location quotient over 1.0 indicates that a local industry is basic. TABLE 1 below displays the six local sectors in Suffolk County that were considered basic in 2010. TABLE 1: Basic Sectors, Suffolk County, NY (2010) NAICS Industry Code Description 23---- Construction 31---- Manufacturing 42---- Wholesale trade 44---- Retail trade 54---- Professional, scientific & technical services 62---- Health care and social assistance
LQ 1.4346 1.0288 1.5063 1.1379 1.0866 1.0765
Base Employment 11129 1484 13469 9497 3220 6466
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, County Business Patterns
In order to determine the estimated economic impact of basic sectors, the economic base analysis uses a figure called the base multiplier.xii This number illustrates the net job creation that results from the presence of basic jobs. For example, a region with a base multiplier of 3 indicates that the creation of one basic job will result in the production of 3 total jobs (including the basic job). The base multiplier for a region is determined by dividing total employment by basic employments. In 2010, the economic base multiplier for Suffolk County was 11.75. Therefore, by following the economic base theory, the creation of 1,000 jobs in the sector with the greatest base employment-the wholesale trade sector-would result in a total increase of 11,750 jobs overall. More specifically, 1,000 new basic jobs would result in 10,750 additional non-basic jobs. NOVEMBER 2012
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UNDERSTANDING ECONOMIC CONDITIONS
IV. SHIFT-SHARE ANALYSIS 2001-2010 Shift-Share analysis is a technique for examining the sources of change in a regional economy.xiii In order to reveal the relative influence of various economic trends, the shift-share analysis divides employment change into the following three components: (1) National Growth Effect, (2) Industry Mix Effect, and (3) Regional Share Effect.xiv The National Growth Effect refers to the change in total employment as ascribed to the growth rate for national employment.xv In other words, this determines the extent to which the national economy grew or declined.xvi In order to determine the National Growth Effect on employment in Suffolk County between 2001 and 2010, the national employment growth rate (-0.98%) was multiplied by the local employment in each industry in 2001. Industry Mix refers to the amount of additional change that region would have occurred in the region had the various industries grown at their relative national rates.xvii To calculate the Industry Mix, the difference between an industry’s national growth rate and the overall national growth rate was multiplied the Suffolk County employment in each industry in the year 2001. The sum of all these figures revealed whether the mix of industries that exist in Suffolk County have experience growth nationally between 2001 and 2010. Finally, Regional Shift refers to the difference between the actual change in employment and the change that might have been expected had the region grown at the national rate.xviii This helps determine how a particular region compare to the national average. To calculate Regional Shift, the difference between the growth rate for each industry for the region and the nation was multiplied by the number of Suffolk County employees in that particular industry in 2001. The results of the entire shift-share analysis are displayed below in Table 2. TABLE 2: Shift Share Analysis (Suffolk County, 2001-2010) NAICS 11---21---22---23---31---42---44---48---51---52---53---54---55---56---61---62---71---72---81----
Industry Code Description Forestry, fishing, hunting, and agriculture support Mining Utilities Construction Manufacturing Wholesale trade Retail trade Transportation & warehousing Information Finance & insurance Real estate & rental & leasing Professional, scientific & technical services Management of companies & enterprises Admin, support, waste mgt, remediation services Educational services Health care and social assistance Arts, entertainment & recreation Accommodation & food services Other services (except public administration) Total (Excluding 95 and 99)
National Share
Industry Mix
Regional Shift
Total Current (2010)
Total Employment Shift
172 172 3,690 33,131 63,719 53,358 74,027 17,398 20,382 24,554 7,299
-23 37 -35 -5,185 -19,625 -3,939 -797 1,512 -3,150 -881 -130
47 -64 -1,906 8,790 9,005 -9,349 5,148 -1,034 -2,450 -177 -263
195 145 1,750 36,736 53,099 40,070 78,378 17,876 14,781 23,495 6,905
23 -27 -1,941 3,605 -10,620 -13,288 4,351 478 -5,601 -1,059 -394
36,328
4,019
41
40,388
4,060
9,223
-2
-709
8,511
-712
35,358 10,132 76,111 7,095 30,398
233 2,768 18,534 1,018 4,639
871 -1,300 -3,660 -139 4,524
36,462 11,600 90,985 7,974 39,561
1,104 1,468 14,874 879 9,163
21,424 523,969
-328 -1,335
1,918 9,291
23,014 531,925
1,590 7,956
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, County Business Patterns
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As shown in Table 3 below, total employment for Suffolk County declined by 0.09% between 2001 and 2010. This was, however, a slower rate than the employment decline in the United States overall (-.2%) This difference is revealed further in Table 2 above where the shift analysis determined that Suffolk County employment beat expectations by 7,956 jobs. As seen in Table 3 below, the sectors that experienced the largest job growth between 2001 and 2010 were Accommodation and Food Services (28.08%) and Healthcare and Social Assistance (17.65%) while the sectors with the jobs loss were Utilities (-53.34%) and Information (-28.63%). TABLE 3: Sectors with Positive Employment Growth, Suffolk County, NY (2001-2010) NAICS 72---62---61---11---71---54---23---81---44---56---48---52---53---55---21---31---42---51---22----
Industry Code Description Accommodation & food services Health care and social assistance Educational services Forestry, fishing, hunting, and agriculture support Arts, entertainment & recreation Professional, scientific & technical services Construction Other services (except public administration) Retail trade Admin, support, waste mgt, remediation services Transportation & warehousing Finance & insurance Real estate & rental & leasing Management of companies & enterprises Mining Manufacturing Wholesale trade Information Utilities Total (Excluding 95 and 99)
2001 30,887 77,336 10,295 175 7,209 36,913 33,664 21,769 75,219 35,927 17,678 24,949 7,416 9,371 175 64,745 54,217 20,710 3,750 532,404
2010 39,561 90,985 11,600 195 7,974 40,388 36,736 23,014 78,378 36,462 17,876 23,495 6,905 8,511 145 53,099 40,070 14,781 1,750 531,925
Change 8,674 13,649 1,305 21 765 3,475 3,072 1,245 3,159 535 198 -1,454 -511 -860 -30 -11,646 -14,147 -5,929 -2,000 -479
Percent Change 28.08% 17.65% 12.68% 11.75% 10.61% 9.41% 9.13% 5.72% 4.20% 1.49% 1.12% -5.83% -6.89% -9.18% -16.91% -17.99% -26.09% -28.63% -53.34% -0.09%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, County Business Patterns
V. REGIONAL GROWTH FACTORS The regional shift component of the shift-share analysis helps determine the extent to which growth or decline in a particular sector was due to local conditions. Sectors that exceeded the national average had a positive regional shift while those that performed below the national average had a negative regional shift. TABLE 4 below displays the industry sectors sorted by regional shift. Overall, Suffolk County was an advantageous environment for eight industrial sectors (shown in bold in TABLE 4). Interestingly, sectors that experience employment growth or decline that was better than the national average did not necessarily gain employment overall. For example, the manufacturing sector, which had a regional shift of 9,005 compared with an industry mix of 19,625, nevertheless saw a 17.99 percent decline in Suffolk County between 2001 and 2010. The national decline in this sector, however, was 32 percent. Some other sectors where Suffolk County did better than the nation overall were construction (8,790), retail trade (5,148) and accommodation & food services (4,524). In some industries, however, Suffolk County’s job market performed below the national average. These sectors include wholesale trade (-9,349), healthcare and social assistance (3,660), NOVEMBER 2012
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UNDERSTANDING ECONOMIC CONDITIONS information (-2,450), and utilities (-1,906). Again, these industries did not necessarily experience overall decline. In fact, although the healthcare and social assistance sector performed worse than the national average, it actually grew by 17.65 percent between 2001 and 2010. TABLE 4: Shift Share Analysis (Suffolk County, 2001-2010)
NAICS 31---23---44----
National Share 63,719 33,131 74,027
Industry Mix -19,625 -5,185 -797
Regional Shift 9,005 8,790 5,148
Total Current Year Employment 53,099 36,736 78,378
30,398
4,639
4,524
39,561
9,163
21,424
-328
1,918
23,014
1,590
35,358
233
871
36,462
1,104
172
-23
47
195
23
36,328 172 7,095 24,554 7,299
4,019 37 1,018 -881 -130
41 -64 -139 -177 -263
40,388 145 7,974 23,495 6,905
4,060 -27 879 -1,059 -394
9,223
-2
-709
8,511
-712
Total Employment Shift -10,620 3,605 4,351
55----
Industry Code Description Manufacturing Construction Retail trade Accommodation & food services Other services (except public administration) Admin, support, waste mgt, remediation services Forestry, fishing, hunting, and agriculture support Professional, scientific & technical services Mining Arts, entertainment & recreation Finance & insurance Real estate & rental & leasing Management of companies & enterprises
48---61---22---51---62----
Transportation & warehousing Educational services Utilities Information Health care and social assistance
17,398 10,132 3,690 20,382 76,111
1,512 2,768 -35 -3,150 18,534
-1,034 -1,300 -1,906 -2,450 -3,660
17,876 11,600 1,750 14,781 90,985
478 1,468 -1,941 -5,601 14,874
42----
Wholesale trade Total (Excluding 95 and 99)
53,358 523,969
-3,939 -1,335
-9,349 9,291
40,070 531,925
-13,288 7,956
72---81---56---11---54---21---71---52---53----
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, County Business Patterns
The economy of Suffolk County, and Long Island in general, is not representative of the United States. The average pay per employee has been around $4000 higher on Long Island than the United States overall for the past ten years.xix Housing costs represent a greater share of a person’s income than the nation overallxx and Long Island’s population is aging at a rate greater than the national average.xxi1 Higher costs and higher wages are often interrelated factors that might illustrate regional advantages and disadvantages. In the case of Suffolk, the County’s proximity to New York City as well as great number of high skilled jobs in technology and research might contribute to a demand for housing and goods and services that is greater than the
Between 2000 and 2010 the population of those between 25 and 34 years old declines by 12% on Long Island while growing by 4% nationwide.
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UNDERSTANDING ECONOMIC CONDITIONS nation overall. This might be a possible explanation for the regions relative advantage as compared to the nation in the manufacturing, construction and retail trade sectors. However, Suffolk County’s advantages can also be seen as its disadvantages. The high cost of real estate in the County makes the cost of doing business there high. These costs, along with constraints on space that exist because of natural barriers, might make Suffolk County a difficult place to attract new firms. This might explain the region’s disadvantage in the health care and social assistance industry as well as the information, utilities, and educational services industries.
VI. SUBSECTOR-LEVEL LOCATION QUOTIENT ANALYSIS A more detailed location quotient analysis of was conducted using the three-digit level NAICS code for the basic sector with the largest location quotient in Suffolk County in 2010: Wholesale Trade. As shown in TABLE 5 below, two wholesale trade subsectors are exporters (i.e.. having location quotients greater than 1.0). These are merchant wholesalers of durable goods and merchant wholesalers of nondurable goods. The durable goods wholesalers provide 9.582 export jobs while the nondurable goods wholesalers provided 4,287 export jobs. The thirds subsector, wholesale electronic markets and agents and brokers, is not basic and does not provide export jobs. TABLE 5: Basic Subsectors Within Wholesale Trade, Suffolk County, NY (2010) Rank NAICS Industry Code Description Location Quotient 1 423 Merchant wholesalers, durable goods 1.6436 2 424 Merchant wholesalers, nondurable goods 1.4174 Wholesale electronic markets and agents and 425 brokers 0.7221
Base Employment 9,582 4,287
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, County Business Patterns
PART TWO: UNDERSTANDING LOCAL INEQUALITY 1. IDENTIFYING THE RICHEST AND POOREST MUNICIPALITIES Data from the 2010 American Community Survey was used to identify the median household income for all Suffolk County municipalities. As shown in TABLE 6 below, the municipality with the highest household income in 2010 was the Town of Smithtown ($104,665) and the municipality with the lowest was Shinnecock Reservation ($25,536). Table 6: Municipality Median Household Income in 2010 (Suffolk County, NY) Town Smithtown town Huntington town Islip town Brookhaven town Babylon town East Hampton town Southampton town Southold town Shelter Island town Riverhead town Poospatuck Reservation Shinnecock Reservation
Median Household Income $104,665 $102,782 $82,160 $81,937 $77,407 $76,769 $74,316 $73,171 $71,384 $68,254 $49,792 $25,536
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 2010
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II. HOUSEHOLD INCOME TABLE AND HISTOGRAM Data obtained from the 2010 U.S. Census was used to find the household income in 2010 for Suffolk County as a whole. This data is displayed, divided by income bin, in TABLE 7 below and a histogram in FIGURE 2. Summary statistics relating to income are related to TABLE 8 below. TABLE 7: Household Income in 2010 (Suffolk County, NY) Household Income
Number of Households
Less than $10,000
$16,461
$10,000 to $14,999
$12,244
$15,000 to $19,999
$14,294
$20,000 to $24,999
$14,728
$25,000 to $29,999
$13,701
$30,000 to $34,999
$15,371
$35,000 to $39,999
$15,011
$40,000 to $44,999
$16,814
$45,000 to $49,999
$15,268
$50,000 to $59,999
$32,155
$60,000 to $74,999
$51,097
$75,000 to $99,999
$75,158
$100,000 to $124,999
$62,918
$125,000 to $149,999
$45,188
$150,000 to $199,999
$49,478
$200,000 or more
$45,403
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 2010
FIGURE 2: Household Income in 2010 Suffolk County, NY
Number of Households
120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0
Less than $10,000
$10,000 to $15,000 to $25,000 to $35,000 to $50,000 to $75,000 to $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $14,999 $24,999 $34,999 $49,999 $74,999 $99,999 to $149,999to $199,999 or more
Household Income (dollars)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey
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TABLE 8: Summary Statistics, Household Income in 2010 (Suffolk County, NY) Category
Result
Total Households
495,289
Total Income
$51,781,351,900
Mean Household Income
$104,548
Median Household Income
$77,500
Mode Household Income
$87,500
Variance
$6,691,984,540
Standard Deviation
$81,805
Coefficient of Variation
0.78
The summary statistics displayed in TABLE 8 above illustrate the income distribution in Suffolk County in 2010. A look at the difference between the mean and mode and median household income shows a large degree of income inequality. The mean ($104,548) and mode ($87,500) show incomes on the high end of an income distribution while the median ($77,500) is much lower. This indicates that the income distribution in Suffolk County is skewed due to a number of incomes on the extreme upper end of the distribution. The large standard deviation of $81,805 would seem to back this claim up.
III. VISUALIZING INEQUALITY: PEN’S PARADE, LORENZE CURVE, AND GINI COEFFICIENT Pen’s Parade One way to visualize income inequality is a graph titled Pen’s Parade. This graph assumes that everyone in a population has a height equal to his or her income.xxii The person with the average income is also assumed to have an average height. The minimal majority indicates the cumulative percent of the population that earns more than 50% of the county’s income. In Suffolk County, the minimal majority is approximately 80.84%. This 80.84% of the population earns only 55.58% of the total income in the County, indicating the degree of income inequality that exists. It holds that since 80.84% of the population earns only 55.58% of the total income that 19.16% of the population earns 44.42% of the income. A Pen’s Parade for Suffolk County is displayed in FIGURE 3 below, with data represented in terms of household income rather than personal income.
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Mid-Point Household Income (Dollars)
UNDERSTANDING ECONOMIC CONDITIONS
FIGURE 3: Pen's Parade Suffolk County, NY Household Income in 2010 $350,000 $300,000 $250,000
Pen's Parade
$200,000
Minimal Majority
$150,000 $100,000 $50,000 $0 0.00%
20.00%
40.00%
60.00%
80.00%
100.00%
120.00%
Cumulative Percent of Population Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2010
Lorenz Curve Another method for displaying income inequality is the Lorenz Curve (see FIGURE 4 below). Developed by Max Lorenz in 1905, each point on this curve represents the percentage of total income earned by a particular percentage of the population (e.g. 10% of the population earns 20% of the income). The equity line in this model is a hypothetical line that represents a population with a completely equitable income distribution (e.g. 10% of the population earns 10% of the income).
Cumulative Percent of Income
The Lorenz Curve includes a statistical measure called the Gini Coefficient, which is used to indicate the level of income inequality in a population. The Gini Coefficient measures the area between the Lorenz Curve and the Equality Line (displayed as ratio). The Coefficient ranges from 0 to 1 where 0 indicates perfect equality and 1 indicates perfect inequality. The Gini Coefficient for Suffolk County in 2010 was shown to be 0.405, near the center of possible scores.
FIGURE 4: Lorenze Curve Suffolk County, NY 120.00% 100.00% 80.00%
Household Income in 2010 Lorenz Curve Equity Line Minimal Majority
60.00% 40.00% 20.00% 0.00% 0.00%
20.00%
40.00%
60.00%
80.00%
100.00%
120.00%
Cumulative Percent of Population Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Census
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UNDERSTANDING ECONOMIC CONDITIONS Comparison to United States Suffolk County displayed a level of income in 2010 inequality that was very similar to that of the United States as a whole. The median ($51,250) and mean ($70,883) household income for the United States was lower than that of Suffolk County ($77,500 and $104,548 respectively). However, the mode income level was identical at $87,500. The minimal majority for the United States was similar to that of Suffolk County at 86.95% (compared with 80.84% in Suffolk). This means that 13.05% of the households in the United States earn 38.69% of the income. The Gini Coefficient for the United States was also very similar to Suffolk County at 0.459 (compared to 0.405 in Suffolk). See TABLE 9 below for a full list of summary statistics for the United States. TABLE 9: Summary Statistics, Household Income in 2010 (United States) Category Total Households Total Income Mean Household Income Median Household Income Mode Household Income Variance Standard Deviation Coefficient of Variation
Result 114,235,996 $8,097,400,587,500 $70,883 $51,250 $87,500 $4,641,108,426 $68,126 0.96
IV. DISSIMILARITY INDEX: RACIAL SEGREGATION In addition to measuring the level on income inequality in Suffolk County, a dissimilarity index was used to measure the extent to which racial segregation exists in the County. The dissimilarity index measures the degree to which a particular neighborhood (or municipality in this case) differs from the regional level of diversity.xxiii The dissimilarity index ranges from 0 to 1, with 0 equaling complete adherence to the regional share and 1 equaling complete difference. In order to show the dissimilarity index for Suffolk County in 2000 and 2010, municipal level data was acquired from the U.S. Census Bureau showing the number of population that was white or black in those years. The dissimilarity indices for 2000 and 2010 are shown in TABLE 10 and TABLE 11 below. The dissimilarity index for Suffolk County in 2000 was 0.30 while in 2010 this number was 0.272, indicating that between the years 2000 and 2010 Suffolk County became more diverse. TABLE 10: Suffolk County Dissimilarity Index - Municipality Level (2000) Mi Ri Ti Municipality Black White Total Babylon town 33137 161675 211,792 Brookhaven town 19411 396381 448,248 East Hampton town 706 17322 19,719 Huntington town 8241 172459 195,289 Islip town 29110 249210 322,612 Poospatuck Reservation 35 4 271 Riverhead town 2913 23593 27,680 Shelter Island town 16 2146 2,228 Shinnecock Reservation 12 20 504 Smithtown town 748 110546 115,715 Southampton town 3624 48133 54,712 Southold town 600 19266 20,599 Total 98,553 1,200,755 1,419,369
Dissimilarity Index 0.101 0.067 0.004 0.030 0.044 0.000 0.005 0.001 0.000 0.042 0.002 0.005
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Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000
0.300
TABLE 11: Suffolk County Dissimilarity Index - Municipality Level (2010) Municipality Babylon town Brookhaven town East Hampton town Huntington town Islip town Poospatuck Reservation Riverhead town Shelter Island town Shinnecock Reservation Smithtown town Southampton town Southold town Total
Mi
Ri
Ti
Black 34,881 26,639 722 9,515 32,024 53 2,579 28 30 1,238 2,929 586 111,224
White 153,067 410,649 18,197 171,048 245,918 40 27,726 2,258 40 109,790 47,795 19,769 1,206,297
Total 213,603 486,040 21,457 203,264 335,543 324 33,506 2,392 662 117,801 56,790 21,968 1,493,350 Dissim Index
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000
Dissimilarity Index 0.093 0.050 0.004 0.028 0.042 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.040 0.007 0.006 0.272
An additional dissimilarity index was calculated for Suffolk County in 2010 based on the census tract level. For this level of data a dissimilarity index of 0.236 was obtained. This number was lower than the 0.272 calculated on the municipal level, indicating that the level of segregation was lower in 2010 on the census tract level than the municipal level. While this model shows the change in the level of segregation in Suffolk County over a ten-year period, it does not indicate how or where this change happened or what it means for the residents of the County. Additionally, this measure only shows segregation between two categories (i.e. black and white), not considering ethnic or religious segregation. As shown in FIGURE 5 below, the racial diversity of Suffolk County extends beyond black and white and indeed includes a large number of Asians (3.4%), those that are two or more races (2.4%) and others (5.6). In addition, according to the U.S. Census Bureau, those who identify as Hispanic (not shown in the racial breakdown) continue to grow as a population in Suffolk County, comprising 16.5% of the population in 2010 compared with 10.5% in 2000. As a result, the dissimilarity index mischaracterizes the level and nature of racial diversity in Suffolk County.
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FIGURE 5: Racial Distribution Suffolk County, NY (2010) 5.60% 0.40%
2.40%
3.40% White Black or African American
7.40%
American Indian and Alaskan Native Asian Other 80.80%
Two or More
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2010
V. GRAVITY MODELING In order to determine the optimal location for a hypothetical recycling facility in Suffolk County, the Network Analyst Extension in ArcMap GIS was employed. In this hypothetical scenario, the objective of the County was to minimize ton-miles hauled by recycling collection trucks. In order to construct this model certain assumptions were made. It was assumed that the amount of recyclables generated would be directly proportional to population and that each person within the population would produce an average of 10 pounds of recycling per week. Network Analyst was used to determine which municipality in the County would have the optimal site for locating the facility based on the desire to minimize ton miles. A municipal boundary file acquired from the U.S. Census Bureau was imported into ArcMap and the file was clipped to include only those municipalities in Suffolk County. This file was then clipped based on a finer level of coastal geography provided by a Census Block file provided by New York State. Once the municipal boundaries were determined the shape file was converted to a point file which allowed ArcMap to determine the central location, or centroids, of each municipality. These centroids were used as the point of origin and destination to the municipality in the Network Analyst model. Population data for 2010 was acquired from the U.S. Census Bureau and was joined to the municipal dataset. A field was then added to the attribute table of this dataset to represent the total tons of recycling for each municipality based on population.2 In addition to the municipal boundary shape file, a road network file was acquired from New York State and clipped to the Suffolk County boundary. The “Project� tool was used to ensure that the map was in the correct projection (State Plane) and units (feet).
Total population was multiplied by 10 (the number of pounds per person per week) and then divided by 2000 to determine the tonnage (2000 pounds equals 1 ton).
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UNDERSTANDING ECONOMIC CONDITIONS A Network dataset was created based on the municipal centroids and the street file. Network Analyst was then used to perform an OD Matrix based on the desired criteria. This matrix determined the distance between each destination (each of the 12 municipalities) and their eleven possible origins.3 This data was imported into excel in order to determine the municipality that would have the lowest ton miles. TABLE 12 below displays the results of this analysis. The “Total Miles” field was determined by taking the aggregate of each origin-destination field from the OD Matrix. The “Total Incoming Tons” field was determined was taking the sum of all the tons of recycling outside of the host town. For this model it is assumed that the centroid in each municipality is also the location of the potential recycling facility and therefore the tons of recycling generated by that municipality would not require transport and not be figured into the ton miles calculation. Ton miles was calculated by multiplying the “Total Miles” field by the “Total Incoming Tons” field. Using this calculation it was determined that the Town of Brookhaven would be an ideal location for the recycling facility because it had the fewest ton miles at 422,582. TABLE 12: Recycling Center Gravity Model (Suffolk County, NY Municipalities) Total Tons of Total Host Town Miles Population Recycling Incoming Tons Brookhaven Islip Riverhead Poospatuck Smithtown Southampton Huntington Babylon Shinnecock Southhold East Hampton
251.60 297.40 257.75 253.97 301.46 292.38 363.39 367.57 325.18 412.64 494.22
162,884 103,631 12,990 110 40,055 21,193 69,311 70,894 226 9,090 8,410
814.42 518.155 64.95 0.55 200.275 105.965 346.555 354.47 1.13 45.45 42.05
1679.55 1975.815 2429.02 2493.42 2293.695 2388.005 2147.415 2139.5 2492.84 2448.52 2451.92
Ton Miles 422,582.1047 587,612.5805 626,085.8064 633,258.0407 691,453.2741 698,198.9395 780,358.7246 786,417.5528 810,630.0571 1,010,349.661 1,211,784.36
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2010
Network Analyst was then used to perform a location allocation in order to determine further and illustrate which location would have the least ton miles. The analyst also found that the Town of Brookhaven would be the ideal location for a recycling facility (based on our criteria) in Suffolk County (see FIGURE 6 below).
Network Analyst was unable to find a route to the Town of Shelter Island due to its location. This Town is very small (1,128 households) and would be an unlikely choice for the recycling facility.
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NOVEMBER 2012
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UNDERSTANDING ECONOMIC CONDITIONS FIGURE 6:
While Network Analyst was one of the more thorough options available to use to determine the prime location for a recycling facility in this scenario, the process was not comprehensive. The location allocation did not properly find connections between all the municipalities. This did not seem to have a significant effect on the outcome, however, as the location determined to be ideal (Town of Brookhaven) is indeed located centrally between the County’s most populous municipalities. A more significant issue with this exercise has less to do with ArcMap Network Analyst and more with the assumptions made at the beginning. Specifically, the assumption that a recycling facility would be centrally located in municipality. A more thorough decision making process would need to take into account site conditions, transportation and site accessibility before making this determination.
iSuffolk
County Executive’s Office. (2012). History of Suffolk County. Retrieved from http://www.suffolkcountyny.gov/Departments/CountyExecutive/HistoryofSuffolkCounty.aspx
ii
Suffolk County Executive’s Office. (2012)
iii
Suffolk County Planning Department (2011). Suffolk County Comprehensive Plan 2035
iv
Suffolk County Planning Department
v
Suffolk County Planning Department
vi
Long Island Index. (2012). 2012 Profile Report. p. 18
vii
Long Island Index. p. 18 NOVEMBER 2012
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UNDERSTANDING ECONOMIC CONDITIONS
Suffolk County Planning Department. p. 3-2
viii ix
Suffolk County Planning Department. p. 3-3
Wikipedia.org. (2012). Economic Base Analysis. Retrieved from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_base_analysis
x
Florida State University Department of Urban and Regional Planning. (2012). Economic Base Theory. Retrieved from http://mailer.fsu.edu/~tchapin/garnettchapin/urp5261/topics/econbase.htm
xi
Bendavid-Val, A. (1991). Economic Base Analysis. In Regional and Local Economic Analysis for Practioners, 4th edition. Westport, CT: Praeger Publishers: pg. 78
xii
xiii
In-Class Presentation. Shift Share. Slide 2
xiv
ibid. slide 3
xv
ibid
xvi
ibid. slide 9
xvii
Ibid. slide 3
xviii
ibid.
xix
Long Island Index. p. 19
xx
ibid. p. 8
xxi
ibid. p. 5
Cowell, F. A. (1995). Charting Inequality. In Measuring Inequality, 2nd edition. New York, NY: Prentice Hall/Harvester Wheatsheaf: pg. 16
xxii
xxiii
In-Class Presentation. Inequality. Slide 46
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