23
23RD ANNIVERSARY
W H E R E D I D T H E AVA I L A B L E I N V E N TO RY G O? Spring 2018 marks Jackson Hole’s lowest available inventory in well over 35 years, with only 267 listings currently available (down 15% from 2017). Both single-family homes and vacant residential lots broke records for the lowest level of available inventory recorded since the early 1980s. The last time we saw levels this low was in 2006-07 when we averaged 325 listings. The key difference between 2006-07 and 2018 is the number of sales in the first quarter. In 2006 there were 208 sales. This year we only registered 128 sales, which means sales are down by 38%. So, what has changed in the last 12 years to bring down the number of sales? One: Construction prices skyrocketed, making it virtually impossible to build a standard 2,000 sq. ft. home on the least expensive single-family lot in the valley (currently $295,000 for 1.27 acres in Buffalo Valley) for under $1 million. Two: During the Great Recession, almost half of the general contractors left the valley looking for work. Unfortunately, after the recession, most did not return. The few contractors who did survive the recession are now booked out for several years, with most of them building luxury homes. The few contractors building somewhat affordable spec homes can’t bring them to the market for under $1 million. Three: Over the past 20 years, Teton County, and Town of Jackson (TOJ) Planning Commissioners have done their best to slow development down. They now require affordable housing exaction fees, limiting the impervious surface area you can build on, requiring additional parking for condos in the TOJ, increasing the amount of dedicated open space for new subdivisions, limiting the size of a single-family home (8,000 sq. ft.), and taking away zoning tools that were used to increase density. These requirements were meant to slow growth and the appreciation rate so locals could afford to live in the valley, but the opposite has happened. Today there are only 10 homes on the market for under $1 million, and 63 listed for over $2 million, or 71% of available homes. What are the odds of future affordable inventory? In 2007, there were 116 overall sales under $500,000 in the first quarter, versus 19 in 2018. Eleven years ago, the median condo sale price was $427,000 versus today at $599,000, which is a 40% increase. The median list price for a home in 2007 was $2,495,000 versus $3,400,000 in 2018, a 36% increase. NOTE: Today, there are zero homes listed for under $500,000, and only 9 condos valley wide.
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FIRST QUARTER
2018
15%
AVA I LA BLE LI S T I N G S compared to 2017
40%
CO N D O M I N I UM P R I CE S 2007 (pre-recession) compared to 2018
DATA-DRI V E N RE P O RTI NG The Jackson Hole Report is the oldest, most accurate and comprehensive real estate market report in Teton County, WY. We derive our statistics from a privately maintained database that tracks every single sale, not just the transactions reported through MLS. NOTE: Only 70% of sale prices valley-wide in 2018 are reported to MLS. VIEW THE FULL INVENTORY REPORTS AT JACKSONHOLEREPORT.COM
TH E OV ER A LL M A R K E T Compared with the first three months of 2017, the 2018 number of sales is up 20%. In contrast, the overall dollar volume was down 9%, the average sale price was down 24%, and the median sale price was down 4%. The decrease in these three segments are due to a large number of sales under $1 million (up 28%). In terms of price, the most activity was under $1 million, where 58% of overall transactions occurred. Geographically, the Town of Jackson experienced the most activity, the total of which accounted for 37% of all sales in the valley. The Westbank came in a close second with 32% of all sales.
compared with the first three months of 2017
20%
MORE SALES
9%
OVERALL DOLLAR VOLUME
HOTSPOT UNDER $1 MILLION 58% of overall transactions
The upper end of the market—properties priced at $3 million and above— registered 18 sales (up 13%) in the first quarter of 2018. Of those 18 sales, 7 were for over $5 million. While it may appear the upper-end is leveling off, a quick look at properties under contract tells a different story. Currently 37 upper-end properties are under contract with an average list price of over $5.2 million. Of those, 78% are on the Westbank, with 43% located in in Shooting Star. While the available upper-end inventory is down 14%, these 87 listings make up 76% of the current overall dollar volume of available properties valley-wide. There are 55 properties on the market in the $5 million+ price range, which is down 10% from Q1 2017. The most expensive listing is north of Town; a home priced at $28 million with 11,500 sq. ft. situated in the middle of 40 private acres offering 3/4 mile of trout-filled spring creeks and private golf under the shadow of the Tetons. Overall properties under contract in Q1 2018 versus Q1 2017: The number of properties under contract is down 6%, while the overall dollar volume is up 3%. Single-family homes and condo/townhouses make up 83% of the properties under contract, and 29% of the properties under contract are listed below $1 million. Overall inventory of active listings is down 14% (267 listings), marking the lowest level of available overall inventory in more than 35 years. The segment with the least amount of available inventory is single-family homes under $1 million, where inventory is at an all-time low (10 homes). Based on the 2017 absorption rates, where 231 homes sold, there is only four and a half months of available inventory. The segment with the largest available inventory was above $5 million, reflecting 57% of the available homes for sale.
24%
AVERAGE SALE PRICE
TOWN OF JACKSON 37% of all sales in the valley
13%
INCREASE IN LUXURY SALES* compared with the first three months of 2017 (*above $3M)
SEGMENT WITH THE LARGEST AVAILABLE INVENTORY ABOVE $5 MILLION
57% of the available homes for sale
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• Currently there are 11,754 deeds in Jackson Hole. They break down as follows: Westbank (3,625); Town of Jackson (3,811); North of the Gros Ventre River (1,424); South of Gros Ventre River to County Line (2,894)—all free-market (not deed restricted or timeshare). • There are 1,618 deeds worth at least $3+ million (luxury properties) throughout the valley. Currently, the Westbank is home to half (804) of these luxury properties. • Q1 2018 marks the lowest level of overall available inventory since the early 1980s.
SI NG LE FA M I LY H OM E S A LE S Single-family home sales, up 24%, reflected a healthy increase. Following suit, the dollar volume and average sale prices are both up 38% and 11% respectively. These increases are the direct result of an increase in sales over $3 million (67%). As of April 1, there were only 10 homes listed for under $1 million. Properly priced listings under $1 million continue to generate multiple offers. The selling strategy is simple. To spark immediate interest, work with our team to effectively price your property according to current market values.
Number of Sales Increased 24% Dollar Volume Increased 38% Average Sale Price Increased 11% Median Sale Price Decreased 21%
The upper-end of the single-family home market has picked up with 36 home sales over $1 million (up 29%). The $3+ million segment (luxury market) also experienced an increase in sales, up 67% when compared to Q1 2017. Meanwhile, the number of homes listed for over $3 million (62) is down this quarter by 15%. NOTE: 40% of homes listed for over $1 million have been on the market for more than 12 months, and 53% of those for more than two years. The number of single-family homes under contract is up 32%, and the dollar volume is up 94%. Following suit, the average and median list prices increased 42% and 39% respectively when compared to Q1 2017. With the lack of available inventory under $1 million, the locals’ segment of our market has very little to choose from. The segment with the most under contract is between $1 and $2 million (39%). Available inventory of homes for sale is down by 18% (92 listings) with only 10 (11%) of them listed for less than $1 million. In sharp contrast, the median list price is down 21% to $3.4 million. NOTE: 89 active listings is the lowest level of available inventory in over 35 years. This, of course, is not good news for many locals who continue to focus on well-priced, single-family homes listed for under $750k. If you are looking for a home within this price range, be prepared to act quickly as inventory is scarce. Have your loan approved and be ready to offer cash with very little contingencies.
• Currently there are 5,729 free-market, single-family homes in Jackson Hole. They break down as follows: Westbank (1,678); Town of Jackson (1,380); North of the Gros Ventre River (872); South of Gros Ventre River to County Line (1,799)—all free-market (not deed restricted or timeshare). • There are 996 single-family homes worth at least $3 million (luxury homes) throughout the valley. Currently, the Westbank is home to half of these luxury homes. • 153 homes in the valley are situated on 35+ acres.
The least expensive single-family home listing, at the time of publication, was $575,000. Built in 1980, it is located south of Town in Hoback Jct. and offers 1,388 sq. ft. with two bedrooms and one and a half baths on .17-acres. The most expensive home, sited on a spring creek north of Town, is listed for $28 million. The home, built in 1993, spans 11,500 sq. ft. spread out over four bedrooms and five baths. The 40 private acres offer 3/4 mile of trout filled spring creeks and private golf under the shadow of the Tetons.
HOT SPOT SOUTH OF JACKSON & TOWN OF JACKSON
CO N DO/ TOW N H O USE S A LE S Condo/Townhome sales have increased 48% with 46 sales in Q1 2018. In contrast, the average and median sale prices decreased, down 36% and 13% respectively, when compared to Q1 2017. The increase in the number of sales can be directly attributed to the increased inventory of affordable listings, where 84% of the sales were under $1 million. The same can be attributed to the decrease in the average and median sale prices.
Number of Sales Increased 48% Compared to 2017 Inventory Decreased 7% Median Sale Price Decreased 9%
The hot spot for condo/townhome sales was in the Town of Jackson, where 16 sales, or 36% of all sales in the first quarter occurred.
• The Town of Jackson has 1,452 free-market condo/townhomes. The second highest number of free market
The number of condo/townhomes under contract is down 25%, while the average and median list prices are up 16% and 63% respectively. Of the 37 currently under contract, 16 are Shooting Star Townhomes, where listing prices start at over $3 million. NOTE: 8% of the current inventory under contract is listed for under $500,000, with the least expensive listed at $399,000.
condo/townhomes is in Teton Village,
Available inventory of condo/townhomes decreased 7%. Following suit, the average list price decreased 25% and the median list price decreased 9%. This decrease in inventory can be directly attributed to a very tight market. The decrease in the listing prices can be directly attributed to the price point, as 56% of the active listings are under $1 million. NOTE: The Westbank holds 44% of the current available inventory, with an average list price of $1.2 million. Based on year-end 2017 results, there are currently three months of available condo/townhouse inventory. Also noteworthy: Nine condos, or 17% of the available inventory, are listed for under $500,000.
(92); South of Gros Ventre River to
with 673 deeds. • Currently there are 2,932 free-market condo/townhomes in Jackson Hole. They break down as follows: Westbank (1,138); Town of Jackson (1,452); North of the Gros Ventre River County line (250) —all free-market (not deed restricted or timeshare). • There are 134 luxury condo/townhomes worth at least $3 million throughout the valley. All are located in Teton Village, with the exception of one in the Town of Jackson.
R E SI DENTI A L L A N D S A LE S Single-family vacant land sales are at par with 2017, with no change. Meanwhile, the average sale price was up 20% when compared to Q1 2017. The increase in average and sale price can be directly attributed to the increase in the number of vacant land sales above $1 million (up 15%). NOTE: In 2005 and 2006 there were two times the number of sales in the first quarter, and yet 2018 had 15% less available listings at the end of the first quarter. The hot spot for vacant land sales was the Town of Jackson and South Park, where 39% of the sales occurred. NOTE: All of these sales were sold for under $1 million.
Number of Sales Increased 50% Compared to 2017 Average Sale Price Increased 33% Median Sale Price Increased 4%
(continued)
Who is buying vacant land today? While 52% of these buyers have local addresses, the majority are still second homeowners and retiring baby boomers. Most have either exhausted their search of existing home inventory and decided to build their dream home or purchased an adjoining lot for privacy and/or view protection. Of course, this continues to be great news for our local construction industry. NOTE: To date in 2018, 83% of all residential vacant land purchases were also cash. Single-family vacant lots under contract are down 64% in the first quarter of 2018. Of these, three are listed for under $1 million and two are listed for over $5 million. Available inventory of lots for sale are down 18% from Q1 2017, yet the average and median list prices are up 33% and 4% respectively. This indicates that listing prices for single-family residential vacant land are finally on the rise again. NOTE: Even though supply will continue to outpace demand, expect to see some appreciation in this segment in 2018. Based on year-end 2017 results, there are currently nine months of available single-family vacant land inventory.
• Q1 2018 registered the lowest number of available single-family lots in over 30 years. • Currently there are 1,228 platted and vacant residential single-family lots, under 35 acres, in Jackson Hole. Of those, only 394 (32%) are located on the Westbank. • Currently there are 226 platted and vacant residential single-family lots, over 35 acres, in Jackson Hole.
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Call us today if you are considering purchasing real estate this year Jackson Hole, as we are the Realtors you want on your team. Don’t take our word for it though, here is what one of our recent buyers had to say about their experience: “I purchased my first Harvest Dance condominium at Spring Creek Ranch in 1988. Since then, I’ve been involved in Spring Creek homeowner, homeowner-association and local issues matters, and, I’ve dealt with many Teton County employees, and valley brokers and real estate agents. Last October, my spouse and I began to consider Jackson Hole as a place to retire. We agreed that our first action should be to confirm that David would be available to assist us. I knew David as a professional recognized in the community for his integrity. With his understanding of the market, and transaction records, I believed him to be the most knowledgeable individual in the Valley in terms of transaction histories and current property values. My spouse and I engaged David as our broker. Our transaction requirements were complicated. There were tax issues and multiple decisions and difficult negotiations. David’s advice on property values and negotiating timing and strategy was “spot on”. His recognized integrity allowed him to achieve results that would have otherwise not been available.” My spouse and I closed on our two targeted Spring Creek Ranch property acquisitions on February 27, 2018. David represented us at the closing.” CLAY COOK AND JUDITH TABLER Spring Creek Ranch Owners Harvest Dance Units 3150/3151, 3152/3153 and 3192/3193. We would be pleased to respond to email requests to Cook@CookMaritimeFinance.com for references.
Market dynamics have changed drastically during the 23 years we have published the Jackson Hole Report. During our tenure tracking real estate, we have marveled at the growth of the high-end market and came to realize this elite segment warranted special attention. For this reason, we created the Jackson Hole Luxury Report in 2013, a limited-edition newsletter focused exclusively on highend properties, which we define as $3 million and above. The purpose of this limited-edition report is to provide high-end buyers and sellers with a clear understanding of the local luxury landscape. Building on the analysis of the Jackson Hole Report, we delved deeper into the dynamics of the market above $3 million. Since 2013, each semi-annual edition has brought great response and feedback from our readers. Some seek our knowledge of their property value for estate planning, or when considering to sell. Others need more information about the overall luxury market. Many existing and future property owners also request more information about real estate related services such as Caretaking, Asset Management and Villa Rental opportunities. The singular nature of luxury listings in Jackson Hole requires that each sale be examined in great detail and truly special properties must be considered incomparable. When pricing this type of property, you need a luxury data specialist to ensure success. As a courtesy to new clients, we provide a free confidential market analysis of their distinctive property and continue to update the current value of the property for estate planning and/or trust updates. While the Luxury Report focuses on luxury homes, condos and single-family vacant parcels, our mailing list considers a wider lens inclusive of select commercial properties, large tracts of land, and ranches in Jackson Hole. Currently there are 1,620 properties worth $3+ million in Jackson Hole, and on our mailing list. If you would like to know what your luxury property is worth in today’s market, please contact David Viehman at (307) 690-4004 or david@jacksonholereport.com. To sign up for the digital version of the Luxury Report, visit JacksonHoleLuxuryReport.com.
LOO K I N G A H E A D Once again, we are very optimistic that the Jackson Hole market will continue seeing appreciation in every segment of our market through the summer, particularly in the under $1 million single-family home segment, which is supplying only two weeks worth of inventory, according to the 2018 Q1 number of sales. Of course, availability of new inventory will be key in controlling future prices (supply and demand). For sellers who want to successfully sell their properties this summer, their properties must be priced correctly. Overpriced listings will not sell because the majority of today’s buyers continue to be motivated by finding a good value. NOTE: 38% of all available inventory (homes, lots, condo/townhome, and commercial) has been on the market before. Of those 265 listings, 134 (51%) have been on the market for more than a year and 80 (30%) for two-plus years. We know the market better than anyone. Call us today about an effective pricing strategy and aggressive marketing plan. Let our accurate, data-driven insight and advice help you reach your real estate objectives. To receive a free no-obligation market analysis, and/or to list your property in 2018, contact us through jacksonholereport.com, david@jacksonholereport.com or (307) 690-4004.
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The Clear Creek Group has been serving discerning homeowners in Jackson Hole for over twelve years; offering full service Real Estate, Property Management, and Villa Rentals in premier properties across the valley. Our brokerage team is seasoned, highly experienced in the luxury market, and poised to handle all of your real estate needs, from purchasing a vacation home, relocating permanently, or acquiring properties for your investment portfolio. As your property manager, we will represent you through the entire real estate transaction process and beyond.
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LET US HELP YOU... FIND THE PERFECT PROPERTY, TAKE CARE OF YOUR CURRENT HOME OR MAXIMIZE YOUR RENTAL REVENUE AS YOUR PROPERTY MANAGER, we will protect and enhance your home’s value. A dedicated Homeowner Relations Manager will serve as your ambassador and source of personalized concierge services. Our company founders and tenured management team are based in Jackson, providing an unparalleled depth of experience, drawing from the real estate, property/asset management, hospitality, and real estate development sectors. WHEN YOU CHOOSE TO RENT YOUR HOME, we will maximize revenue generating opportunities based on your personal goals. Our rental portfolio includes the most soughtafter properties in the valley. We promote them through implementation of a comprehensive marketing plan, including digital, direct sales, social media, revenue management and strategic partnerships. TAKE ADVANTAGE OF OUR FULL RANGE OF CONCIERGE AND LIFESTYLE SERVICES, and allow us to help create unique, memorable experiences while making the most of your time in Jackson. Let us pay your bills, accept and deliver your packages, tune your skis, and deliver your vehicle to the airport. All you need to do is turn up! Our programs are highly-flexible and personalized, all in an attempt to accommodate your specific goals. We provide you with peace of mind and the assurance your Jackson home is well cared for, regardless of where you may be in the world.
Call us today at 877-427-3400 or 307-732-3400 and discover how The Clear Creek Group will help you find the perfect property, take care of your current home or maximize rental revenue.
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Preserving Grand Teton’s Bar BC Dude Ranch The historic Bar BC Dude Ranch in Grand Teton National Park is the second-oldest and best-known dude ranch in Jackson Hole. During its peak years, the Bar BC provided guests with an authentic cowboy experience during the day while entertaining them in the evening with costume parties, original plays, and literary discussions. Today the site is a treasured destination and very meaningful to generations of visitors. Established in 1912, the Bar BC Dude Ranch is a central element of Jackson Hole’s cultural history due to its defining role in the dude ranching movement. Its fame spread far beyond the region through the reputation of its colorful founders who were nationally recognized writers and silent film producers—Struthers and Katherine Burt. Struthers Burt’s book, Diary of a Dude Wrangler, single-handedly popularized the dude ranch experience and was distributed widely. Illustrious ranch guests included Ernest Hemingway, Mrs. Grover Cleveland, John D. Rockefeller, Jr., and William Faulkner. The Bar BC was given to the National Park Service in 1987, and the buildings were added to the National Register of Historic Places in 1990. Since that time, the park has been unable to prioritize maintaining the property, resulting in significant deterioration. The lack of major funding for the two largest structures and social centers of the Bar BC—the Main and Corse cabins— remains the biggest opportunity to keep the heart of the ranch on the landscape for visitors to enjoy. The buildings are in poor condition and improvements to both are necessary and time-sensitive. With funding from Grand Teton National Park Foundation, Grand Teton National Park has begun a 2-year project to restore these two structures so visitors can continue to experience this extraordinary place and its vibrant history well into the future.
TO S U P P ORT T H E PR E S E RVAT I O N O F T H E H I STO RIC B AR B C D U D E R A N C H , CO N TAC T C AT H Y WI KOFF AT C ATH Y @ GT N PF.O R G O R 3 07-73 2 - 06 2 9.
Our decades-deep knowledge of the valley combined with the international reach of The Clear Creek Group makes us your Local Real Estate Experts. Whether you are pricing your property to sell in this competitive market or weighing the right time to buy, rest assured when you are our client, you have the upper hand through access to current market statistics and our impeccable level of service and personal attention. For a free comparative market analysis, please contact us by calling 307-690-4004 or emailing david@ jacksonholereport.com. The JACKSON HOLE REPORT is published semi-annually, with additional email updates for the first and third quarters. While other Realtors attempt to report on our market with MLS statistics only (MLS historically tracks only 65-70% of the market), we track every single transaction in Teton County. This data-driven report is the oldest, most accurate and trusted real estate news source in Teton County, Wyoming. We are your “True North” of valley real estate reporting. If you would like to sign up for quarterly email updates, or need more detailed information about our local real estate market, please call 307-690-4004 or email david@jacksonholereport.com. We hope this report has given you a snapshot of market trends. As always, we would be glad to discuss them further with you. Please contact us if you plan to list your property in 2018, would like a more detailed analysis of specific areas or back issues of THE JACKSON HOLE REPORT, or if you are scouting for a professional Realtor to represent you in your next real estate transaction. We look forward to working with you. Sincerely,
David E. Viehman, Associate Broker Devon Viehman, Associate Broker “Wyoming Realtor of the Year 2013” Luke Smith, Sales Associate The Jackson Hole Report The Clear Creek Group Direct: 307-690-4004 www.jacksonholereport.com david@jacksonholereport.com
*While other local Real Estate Brokers attempt to report on the local real estate market, we are the only ones to track every single transaction. Therefore, if you want the most accurate information to help guide you through your next real estate transaction, please call Devon and David today. “We are the Experts”. *All statistics are supplied by sources that have been deemed reliable but are not guaranteed. *All statistics quoted in this newsletter are based on sales in 2018 compared to sales in 2017. *Median sale price is the cost of a property that has an equal number of sales above and below it on the price scale. *Average sale price is the total combined dollar volume divided by the number of sales. *In this report, “overall” refers to all sales in Teton County combined (homes, lots, condos, commercial, ranch), minus Alta, WY. *The term “Market Value” means the value of property in terms of what it can be sold for on the open market; current value. © Copyright 1995 - 2018 by David E. Viehman and Devon Viehman. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without explicitly written permission from David E. Viehman.