The Mayor, Councillors, Group Manager Strategy & Partnerships, KCDC
19-11-2012 Dear Mayor, Councillors and Dr Ferguson, RE LIM's - Hazard lines As you will be aware CRU, of which I am Chair, are wanting to constructively engage in a process that leads to an outcome that is robust and can be accepted by all stakeholders as having been arrived at after full and fair consultation. The Shand Report appears to be a central plank in the Draft District plan. By having already put it on LIM's it gives an indication of predetermination by the Council on the unviability of the Shand Report, despite a number of challenges. A particular flaw in the process concerns probabilities and the likelihood of hazard events. In Dr Ferguson’s letter of 25 August 2012 to ratepayers, advising receipt of a coastal hazard assessment, subsequently known as the Shand Report you state at paragraph 2: “It predicts where the shoreline is likely to be along the Kapiti Coast within 50 and 100 years”. Dr Ferguson then go on to say at paragraph 8: “Around 1800 properties....are at likely risk of significant erosion or inundation..within 100 years. Up to 100 of these may be affected within 50 years”. As Dr Ferguson has only referred to the Shand Report is it correct that this was the only report you have? ( If there are others please advise). Where in the Shand Report does it state that these events are likely? Dr Shand stated publicly at a meeting on 1 November that he was presenting a worst case scenario and erosion as shown in the hazard lines was not likely. Section 5.3.3 (page 55) of the MfE’s July 2008 Guidance Manual for Coastal Hazards and Climate Change states:
Did the KCDC take this into account? If so can you please supply all papers and correspondence regarding this. You will be aware of the decision in ACC v Weldon [ 1996] DCR 635 upheld by Salmon J in Weldon Properties Ltd v ACC AKHC26/97. There it was held that likely did not mean probable but “A reasonable consequence or {something which } could well happen� Dr Shand's report does not meet this test. I am writing this letter in my personal capacity. The hazard lines do not indicate imminent risk By their very title they are merely predictions of events that are unlikely and even if they do occur, they are 50 to 100 years away. In the interests of transparency, and complying with the need for proper consultation can you confirm that in the light of this and Dr Shand's statements of 1 November, the Council will immediately reverse its decision on hazard lines to enable due process? No one wants to go to the expense of litigation.
Yours faithfully, C B Ruthe 199 Manly St Paraparaumu Cr Diane Ammundsen Email: diane.ammundsen@kapiti.govt.nz Cr Roger Booth (Deputy Mayor) Email: roger.booth@kapiti.govt.nz Cr Mike Cardiff Email: mike.cardiff@kapiti.govt.nz Cr Ross Church Email: ross.church@kapiti.govt.nz Cr Peter Ellis Email: peter.ellis@kapiti.govt.nz Cr Penny Gaylor
Email: penny.gaylor@kapiti.govt.nz Cr K Gurunatha Email: k.gurunathan@kapiti.govt.nz Cr Tony Lest Email: tony.lester@kapiti.govt.nz Cr Tony Lloy Email: tony.lloyd@kapiti.govt.nz Cr Hilary Wooding Email: hilary.wooding@kapiti.govt.nz 
 Email: kapiti.council@kapiticoast.govt.nz PLANS, POLICIES AND REPORTS CIVIL DEFENCE | EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT