Box 1.4: Tracking the spread of COVID-19 from Wuhan, China

Box 1.4: Tracking the spread of COVID-19 from Wuhan, China

An early study on Chinese cities found that higher infection rates could be attributed either to their “strong economic connection” with Wuhan (as is the case for Wenzhou, with almost 200,000 residents working in Wuhan despite the considerable distance separating the two cities) or to their “geographical proximity” (hence the high infection rates in Xinyang, Zhumadian, Xinyu and Yueyang, all of which are close to Hubei).38 Similarly, tracing the initial global spread of the virus reveals that other industrialized parts of the world with close economic connections to China, through business trips and exchange of personnel, were infected before areas without economic links to China. However, it is not clear how those cities have fared over the course of the pandemic in relation to cities without strong economic ties to Wuhan.

Figure 1.4: Selected flights in and out of Wuhan

Source: Storymaps, 2020.

The efficacy of one of Wuhan’s early response measures, a cordon sanitaire that resulted in an average delay of COVID-19 spread to other cities by three days, further supports the assertion that close economic and geographical ties increased early spread of the virus. The magnitude of the early epidemic (total number of cases until February 10, 2020) outside of Wuhan is remarkably well predicted by the volume of human movement out of Wuhan alone. Cases exported from Wuhan prior to the cordon sanitaire appear to have contributed to initiating local chains of transmission, both in neighbouring provinces such Henan) and in more distant parts of China.39

The initial spread of COVID-19 corresponded to the level of connectivity and the speed at which cities were able to control their borders. Large agglomerations played a role in the initial spread of the infection, but well-established networks of cities also assisted in facilitating a response to it. Cities often served entire regional networks by acting as hubs for healthcare, logistics and emergency support during the pandemic.

At the same time, rural areas also supplied nearby cities with natural resources and agricultural produce, making them critical to food and water security. Given the highly interdependant nature of the rural–urban interface and the overarching need to accommodate both rural and urban demands during the emergency and recovery phases of the pandemic, the impacts, vulnerabilities and opportunities in urban, rural and peri-urban areas need to be considered together. Some of these considerations are covered in section 1.1.3 on agriculture/food systems and "Weak spots".

Smaller cities are also beginning to gain prominence as measures taken to prevent the spread of COVID-19 are testing the possibilities and repercussions of remote working arrangements. In some geographical contexts and sectors, since many employees with desk jobs are not required to work in person in their offices, they are no longer tethered to living within a daily commute of their place of work. Although it is too early to know whether remote working will be a temporary or permanent arrangement, so far it has led to noticeable levels of outmigration from some major urban centres, where the cost of living is high, resulting in a redistribution of wealth to smaller cities and towns. Young families in the US are now able to own larger homes in smaller cities with access to basic services that are of equal quality as in larger cities. Such movements have provided a more level playing field for cities to attract new workers, countering the disproportionate concentration of talent in only select major cities. One assessment of rental prices in the US in the wake of the pandemic found that, while six of the 10 highest-rent cities in the country had experienced declines, including New York, Los Angeles and Seattle, rental prices in other more affordable cities nearby appeared to be on the rise.40

Cities, particularly second-tier and smaller cities, now have the opportunity to attract remote workers through investing in services desired by high tech remote workers: broadband, healthcare, cultural and entertainment scenes, with a focus on sustainability. The emerging remote working trend of the past decade has accelerated dramatically in the wake of COVID19. While this trend does not mean that primary and major urban centres will necessarily lose population per se, it does suggest that remote working has given a chance for smaller cities to attract talented workers and economic growth. Nevertheless, it remains to be seen whether many of the remote arrangements made to accommodate physical distancing measures hold after vaccination programmes are rolled out and herd immunity is achieved. While work in certain sectors may remain remote or provide a higher degree of flexibility, other sectors may find that they require the strategic physical and service-oriented infrastructure as well as specific knowledge cultures that global cities provide.

City-city connectivity and regional linkages explored in this section have implications at the city scale, where people often travel to larger cities or metropolitan areas to access employment opportunities during lean agricultural seasons and to avail better facilities in healthcare, education or other sectors. The shift in working styles towards remote and digital technologies, explored in later sections, will also have an impact on these connections when workers might choose to live away from their workplaces and commute less frequently. Finally, the rollout of digital technologies is exposing the inequalities underpinning the digital divide, which is further discussed in Chapters 2 (on inequality) and 3 (on urban economies). Cities, particularly second-tier and smaller cities, now have the opportunity to attract remote workers through investing in services desired by high tech remote workers: broadband, healthcare, cultural and entertainment scenes, with a focus on sustainabilit