Box 1.7: The limited role of density in the spread of COVID-19 in New York

Figure 1.8: Infection rate of coronavirus and population density of Chinese cities

Source: Fang and Wabha, 2020

Box 1.7: The limited role of density in the spread of COVID-19 in New York

One study in the US covering 913 metro counties found that, while larger metropolitan areas with higher degrees of connectivity were more susceptible to the virus, county density was not itself significantly related to infection rate. Indeed, in terms of actual virus-related mortality rates, counties with higher densities fared significantly better than those with lower densities, potentially as a result of having more effective local health care.51 More specifically, in New York, another analysis of COVID-19 rates found that the suburban countries surrounding the city were worse hit than the city itself. Of the city’s five boroughs, meanwhile, the densest borough — Manhattan — had the lowest infection rates. Staten Island, on the other hand, despite having the lowest density, had the second highest infection rate after the Bronx.52 This suggests that there are many other factors, particularly relating to inequalities around income, ethnicity and service provision, that may be much more decisive in determining the spread of the virus.