Figure 2.49 Opportunities to Reduce Environmental Impacts

1. Improvements in the upstream system may be realized through enhanced energy production (electricity and heating) and raw materials production.

2. Improvements in the core system may be realized through advances in construction and maintenance; the installation of solar cells or heat recovery systems; and human behavioral change, particularly by promotion of energy conservation.

3. Improvements in the downstream system may be realized through improved waste and wastewater management, including recycling and reuse.

By using the ELP in the planning process, one may analyze various options and vet various interventions from an environmental point of view (fi gure 2.49). By adding the cost of environmental impacts to the analysis of alternatives, one may visualize the life-cycle perspective. The ELP allows for comprehensive assessments and more precise target setting. By following up on outcomes and providing feedback to stakeholders and actors, the ELP also contributes to building knowledge and fostering improvements. It is becoming more important to have good decision-making tools such as the ELP.

Foresight Workshops and Resiliency Planning

A method for mitigation and adaptation is needed

Credible forecasting is essential for all development planning. All cities require the capacity to forecast. A city’s land use plan is typically driven by population and economic demand and relies on plausible forecasts of the demand for land and services. Thus, credible forecasting is a necessary part of directing public investments and is essential for gaining support from potential fi nancial partners and other stakeholders.

Forecasting is always a challenge. The demand for services of any type may vary greatly, depending on the assumptions made regarding population growth, occupant lifestyles, new technology, and the pace of development. Transformative forces may also infl uence demand. For example, population migration, climate change, and globalization may lead to large-scale changes in the local demand for land and services. A rise in sea level might alter the location of shorelines and dislocate neighborhoods and infrastructure. The increased frequency of wind storms might require more space dedicated to tree breaks, pedestrian shelters, and underground services. A global economic crisis, fuel price increases, or changes in

Figure 2.49 Opportunities to Reduce Environmental Impacts

Source: Brick (2008). Note: The fi gure illustrates opportunities to reduce environmental impacts in the building sector in the upstream system, the core system, and the downstream system.

rainfall patterns might boost the need for food security and require more space and water for urban gardens and local agriculture. The range of threats and mitigation plans for cities today covers a broad spectrum and is subject to constant change.

In reality, the forecasting challenge far exceeds the capacity of any city. The best place to begin is to generate the best possible demand and supply forecasts, using whatever data and practical models are available. Over time, it becomes possible to augment such forecasts with insights on how changes in climate, technology, and other external factors might infl uence key assumptions.

The fi rst step is developing the capacity for forecasting land use demand

At a minimum, standardized methods should be used to estimate the demand for housing, commercial space, and industry. The demand is driven by population growth and economic indicators. Generally, the process begins by assuming reasonable population growth rates under margins of uncertainty over a 30-year period. This creates both high- and lowgrowth scenarios.

Population growth is translated into housing demand by dividing the population into subsets based on age and socioeconomic status. One then associates a propensity for diff erent types of housing with each subset: low-rise apartments, large detached houses, high-rise dwellings, and so on. Predictions may thus be generated on the demand for diff erent types of housing.

The second challenge is to forecast supply. Ideally, this is accomplished using a GIS tool that allows for easy contingent analysis. Existing zoning or a set of zoning options is used as a basis for equating land areas with potential numbers of housing by type. Based on these assumptions, each area of land has a build-out capacity, and this limits the supply of units in the city. It is then a simple matter to compare the demand forecast with the supply forecast and identify gaps for specifi c types of housing. The same forecast provides a basis for estimating gaps in infrastructure capacity in terms of roads, transport, water, and energy.

A similar forecasting process may be used for commercial and industrial demand and supply. Ideally, because of interdependencies, residential forecasts and commercial and industrial forecasts should be considered together.

Foresight workshops are helpful in understanding the impacts of external forces

A number of techniques have been developed specifi cally to engage large groups of experts in envisioning the long-term future and developing appropriate design strategies. Some traditional foresight tools have proven quite diffi cult to apply; for example, the Delphi technique developed by RAND researchers in the 1950s has not been particularly successful as a predictive method. However, a host of other visioning and exploring techniques may now be used to bring groups of experts together as part of groups of research and refl ection or in workshops on future urban issues. Such techniques may be referred to as creativity tools; they include trial and error, brainstorming, morphological analysis, the method of focal objects, and lateral thinking. In urban planning and design, communicative planning has been promoted as a fi eld-tested method for engaging stakeholders and experts in a more dynamic, open-ended enquiry. An example is the European Awareness Scenario of the Sustainable Cities Program (for example, see Bilderbeek and Andersen 1994). Extensive engagement exercises of this type have, at times, been intellectually and physically trying for participants. They are thus accompanied by some risk that stakeholders may lose interest. In this context, the success of collaborative planning may depend on tools that promote a simpler systems approach and

involve stakeholders in more intense, timelimited exercises such as design charrettes and foresight workshops.

A foresight workshop consists of a progressive series of presentations and exercises intended to introduce designers and planners to the potential for proactive risk management through resilient land use and infrastructure design. Typically, it begins with an exploration of the possible impacts of external forces on urban and rural systems within the region. A summary presentation or a set of papers may be provided that covers the local context in terms of the fi ve major forces: demographic, climate change, technological change, globalization, and sudden shocks. Foresight papers review the patterns and trends in each force and examine how this force might aff ect the urban region.

As part of the workshop, subteams may explore the possible infl uences of the forces on various urban systems: mobility, housing, buildings, land use, energy, materials and waste, water, health, information and communications, security, agrifood, and the economy. The subgroups may use graphical tools to assist in forecasting.

Decision trees, infl uence diagrams, and belief nets are examples of tools that support the front end of a decision analysis. A particularly eff ective technique is to use infl uence diagrams to structure and facilitate dialogue. For many people, an infl uence diagram is the easiest way to understand a series of chains of cause and eff ect, although, strictly speaking, the causality is not always direct or restricted to the elements shown. Thus, terms such as infl uence or relevance are used. These diagrams are easy to draw, and they are intuitive; they allow straightforward numerical assessments. Most important, they visually communicate independencies among variables. By visually displaying changing assumptions, they allow groups to focus on internal dependencies as a whole, rather than in disjointed sections. Aspects of inference, prediction, and decision may be drawn using simple nodes and arrows and then discussed at a nontechnical level with a view to reinforcing a systems perspective. These diagrams may also provide a foundation for more complex modeling among groups.

An example template for an infl uence diagram is shown in fi gure 2.50. Each unique chain of cause and eff ect leads to potential impacts on the economic, social, and environmental features of the region. With help from specialists, subteams may use such diagrams to map chains of cause and eff ect and the impacts on the four capitals in the case of each major force and urban system.

Through infl uence diagrams, the interdisciplinary subteams may then explore specifi c interventions or alternative designs for mitigating any signifi cant negative impacts. In this way, the infl uence and intervention diagrams become a framework or mind-map, helping interdisciplinary groups to explore the longer-term vulnerabilities of the region and then to develop mitigation strategies. A foresight workshop may orient design teams to unfamiliar topics, such as security and resiliency. Such a workshop also initiates capacity building in the larger fi eld of resiliency planning. Most designers and planners have little understanding of future studies, including on such topics as technology scans, S curves and innovation cycles, risk management, and the accelerating pace of change in many urban systems. While many of these concepts are diffi cult to grasp and integrate into daily practice, the foresight workshop exercises allow pragmatic issues to be discussed and complex concepts to be presented in visual formats that are easy to understand and reference.

A foresight workshop also creates the possibility for generating initial design solutions that promote resiliency. The workshops represent opportunities to explore adaptable designs. Designs that are versatile and durable favor simplicity, factor in redundancy, allow upgrades, opt for independence, and minimize